Lecture III: Strategy and good policy making in
government
Lecture III: Strategy and good policy making in
government
Donald Henderson and the
eradication of smallpox – an
exemplar of public sector strategy
What does good strategy look like?
Is it being long-term – or fast to adapt?
Is it all about analysis – or intuition?
Should you just ‘muddle through’?
Is there just too much complexity and
uncertainty for plans and strategies?
Are visions only for the insane?
Strategic intent – knowing
where you want to go
Strategic means – knowing how
to get there
Strategic adaptation – knowing
how to cope with surprise
5
1. Purposes
2.Environments
3. Directions
5.Learning
4. Actions
Public
value
1. Purposes
What matters & what’s valued;
needs, aspirations, beliefs
2.Environments
5.Learning
Political and public
feedback,
performance data,
evaluation
Contexts for action:
future threats &
opportunities,
capacities, causes
and systems
3. Directions
Where to go: strategic
priorities, targets, sequences
4. Actions
strategies, policies,
implementation, systems,
money, cultures, structures
Public
value
This approach contrasts with:
Linear methods – from diagnosis of problem, through
strategy to policy to implementation – without
learning
} The tendency of many governments to accumulate
policies – not situated in clear strategies
} The tendency of many governments to assume the
best environment for their actions
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The aim is to force attention on to:
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power and knowledge: effective action is only possible with both
alignment, and the right balance between i) long-term goals and
consistency, and ii) rapid adaptation in uncertain environments
Simple
causation –
amenable to
comprehensive
analysis and
action
Multiple
variables –
can be
analysed and
planned
Fields
Chaos and
crisis – speed
of action and
adaptation vital
Complexity –
a greater need
for learning by
doing, rapid
adjustment of
policies
Power +
-
-
Knowledge +
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Control strategies – rich
in power and knowledge
Distributed strategy – no Insurgent/collaborative
centralised command of
strategies – richer in
power or knowledge
knowledge than power
-
Power +
Emergent strategies –
richer in power than
knowledge
-
Knowledge +
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Good strategy depends on good knowledge
Understanding what is known:
evidence surveys
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Mapping what is known from social science, research, pilots
Campbell, Cochrane collaborations; OECD, World Bank, NHS Evidence
&c
Randomised control trials, longitudinal survey data, natural experiments
(eg on welfare to work)
But evidence based policy remains rare and for some good reasons,
knowledge limited, contingent, contextual
Path dependence reduces applicability of evidence
Understanding systems – what causes what
Higher incidence
of poverty
Strained
health services
Debt
problems
Less rent
income
More disrepair
or neglect
“Benefit
farming” by
private
landlords Unpopular
More crime
and fear of
crime
Poor housing
design (esp
high rise) and
condition
Growing exodus
of more educated/
entrepreneurial
residents
Less social control,
more disturbance,
anti-social behaviour,
vandalism
Low pay jobs
Few accessible
jobs matching
skills
Poor mental and
physical health
Strained
schools
neighbourhood.
Empty/cheaper
properties
Low use of
health
services
High worklessness
among residents
Teen
pregnancy
Lack of outreach
/community
development
services
Employer
discrimination
Little motivation
to (formally)
work among
residents
Less stable, less
committed to area, fewer
community links. Lack of
bonding social capital
Doubled headed arrows blue for clarity
Low proportion of jobs via
Jobcentre Plus/ Poor JC+
performance
Lack of information about
available jobs in area
Lack of affordable /
convenient childcare
Lack of youth
activities
Truancy
Large proportion
of young people
Historic industrial/
economic legacy
Low rate of enterprise
Low level of
basic skills, work
skills and
education
High drug
use/dealers
Low private & public
sector investment
Poor transport access
or high cost
Negative peer culture.
Low bridging social
capital. Low aspirations
Families with little choice move in.
Concentrations of vulnerable residents:
• sick/disabled
• low-skilled
• people with criminal records
• ethnic minorities
• asylum seekers
Social housing
• substance abusers
allocation system
• Lone parents
Disincentives from benefits
system - low gains to work
Disincentives from benefits
system - slow processing
Informal economic activity
in area
Reliance on incapacity
benefits, perhaps passed
through generations
Understanding possible futures – scenarios,
simulations, foresight
“We have grown used to the centre taking more
and more of the decisions, despite the fact that in
almost all cases the knowledge, expertise and
experience required to inform those decisions are
at the edge.”
Beth Noveck, author of Wiki Government and Deputy CTO, Open and Transparent
Government, The White House
} Targets
good?
and indicators – what makes a target
A growing menu of policy tools
Information, Education & Advice
•Provision of information
•Public education campaigns
Teenage pregnancy; AIDS campaigns
•Reporting & disclosure
requirements Financial services
•Labelling Food ingredients
•Advisory services
•Representation services
•Open data requirements
Direct Intervention/provision
•Direct provision of services
(including co-production) Police;
Armed Forces; Hospitals; Schools
•Commissioning of services (from
public, private and/or voluntary
sectors) Private prisons; healthcare;
welfare
•Provision of infrastructure: eg
science parks
Economic Instruments
•Taxes Tobacco duty; fuel duty
•Charges Congestion charges; road
pricing
•Subsidies, tax credits &
vouchers R&D tax credits;
•Benefits & allowances
• Tradeable permits & quotas
Carbon emissions trading scheme
•Award & auctioning of
franchises and licenses
Mobile phones; airport landing slots
Regulation & Other Legislation
•Price & market structure
regulation
•Production & consumption
regulation eg planning rules;
•Standards setting regulation
Accreditation
•Prescription & prohibition
legislation Criminal justice;
Banning tobacco advertising; Drunk
driving
•Rights & representation
legislation or regulation
•Government loans, loan
guarantees and insurance
Self-Regulation
Transnational
•Opoen coordination EU budget
an d social policy
• Special vehicles: eg HIV/AIDS,
IFF
•Justice: eg ICC
•Voluntary agreements Advertising
standards; Corporate Social
Responsibility initiatives
•Codes of practice Banking Code
•Co-regulation
Tools and habits
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Do departments and agencies become attached to types of tool?
How much scope for variation?
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How to change behaviour?
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Choices on strategic stance
A strategy for … ‘ageing’, energy security,
transport infrastructure, entrepreneurship,
education
A strategy against … terrorism, epidemic,
financial crisis
Or dynamic capabilities
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Common errors ...
1. Lack of empathy and therefore understanding of
how others will behave
2. Investment effects – sticking to past strategies
because of past investments even when they no
longer work
3. Straight line and wishful thinking
4. Becoming trapped by mental frameworks that
ignore key facts
5. Groupthink
6. Failure to spot apparently unlikely run-away
processes
7. Mistaking numbers for facts
Historical contexts: big
gambles
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Bubbles, recessions & golden ages
INSTALLATION PERIOD
Bubble
1771
Britain
1829
Britain
1875
Britain / USA
Germany
1908
USA
1971
USA
DEPLOYMENT PERIOD
TURNING
POINT
Golden Age
Canal mania 1793–97 Great
British leap
Railway mania 1848–50 The Victorian Boom
London funded global market
infrastructure build-up 1890–95
(Argentina, Australia, USA)
Europe
The roaring 1929–33
twenties
USA
Telecom mania, Internet
emerging markets
and NASDAQ
1929–43
2000/7–?
Belle Époque (Europe)
“Progressive Era” (USA)
Post-war
Golden age
Sustainable global
knowledge-society ”golden age”?
20 – 30 years
INSTALLATION PERIODDEPLOYMENT PERIOD
Technological
explosion
Financial
Bubble
TURNING POINT
Degree of diffusion of the technological revolution
20 – 30 years
MATURITY
SYNERGY
Golden Age
FRENZY
Market
saturation
and
social
unrest
IRRUPTION
big-bang
Crash
Institutional
recomposition
Time
Next
big-bang
The long view – financial economy and real economy
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2010s – cogno, nano, info, bio;
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the shift to low carbon economies;
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social industries as key source of GDP, jobs growth
(health, care, education, environmental services)
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threats to developing world from relocalisation of
production and exchange
Cultivate intuitions and emotions –
road test against reality
Stories as core to success
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Speed in crisis to preserve public
confidence
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Speed of testing, piloting – to
accelerate learning
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Slow and steady at cultural
change, systems change, longterm in strategy and action
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Always explaining why as well as
what
Questions
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how would you know if a department or agency has been strategic
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Piles of papers, reports? Results?
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Success; being prepared for change; adaptive?
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How much emotion how much reason? Intuition or analysis?
The common vice of governments:
overestimating what can be achieved shortterm, underestimating what can be achieved
long term