Topic 5 Econ 103 page 1 Principles in Microeconomics Topic 5: Externalities (In the Real World, Not All Government Policies Result In DWL) Text Reference: Chapter 19 Overview: - Market surplus vs. social surplus - Externalities - Policies to address market failure Topic 5 Econ 103 page 2 Principles in Microeconomics Market Surplus Versus Social Surplus ► Recall the definition of external costs and benefits from Topic 4. - External costs (EC): activities in a market impose costs on those outside the market. - External benefits (EB): activities in a market yield benefits to those outside the market. The presence of external cost/benefits means market surplus does not equal social surplus. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 3 Principles in Microeconomics Market surplus (MS) = private benefit (PB)-private costs (PC). MS = PB - PC Social surplus (SS) = social benefits (SB) – social costs (SC). SS = SB - SC ► SB = PB + EB ► SC = PC + EC Topic 5 Econ 103 page 4 Principles in Microeconomics We can also think about externalities on the margin. Marginal external costs (MEC) =external costs imposed by an additional unit of output. - similar definition for MEB. Marginal social costs (MSC) = all costs imposed by an additional unit of output. - MSC = MPC + MEC similar definition for MSB. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 5 Principles in Microeconomics We know markets are excellent at maximizing market surplus. But, when market surplus does not equal social surplus, we have a problem. The market ignores external costs/ external benefits, even though these are real costs and benefits. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 6 Principles in Microeconomics Topic 5 Econ 103 page 7 Principles in Microeconomics Recall: - Competitive market equilibrium is where MPC-MPB (QS=QD). - Social surplus is maximized where MSC = MSB. The output that maximizes market surplus will not typically be the same output that maximizes social surplus, if there are external costs and/or external benefits. Means, government intervention in markets can result in and increase in social surplus! Topic 5 Econ 103 page 8 Principles in Microeconomics Negative Externalities Assume EC > 0 & EB = 0. - A negative externality: MSC=MPC + MEC - Example: gasoline consumption →GHG emission - Note: MPB=MSB, since EB = 0. $ MSC= MPC+MEC Competitive equilibrium yields QE. MEC MPC (S) We know QE maximizes market surplus. MSB (D) Q* QE Quantity Want to prove social surplus will be greater at Q* that it is at QE. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 9 Principles in Microeconomics Note two things: - At Q*, MSC = MCB - At QE, MSC > MCB This is enough to tell us that QE does NOT maximize social surplus. Units between Q* and QE result in and increase in social cost that is greater than the increase in social benefit. Hence, social surplus falls. $ MSC= MPC+MEC As output (Q) increases from Q* to QE: MPC (S) - SB ↑ by A + B. C - SC↑ by A+B+C. B - SS↓ by C. A Q* MSB (D) Q E Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 10 Principles in Microeconomics Another way to look at it: At QE, market surplus = B+F+G But, market surplus does not equal social surplus. Social surplus = market surplus – external costs. $ MSC= MPC+MEC MPC (S) F Total external cost (EC) given QE = G+B+C. C B G A Q* MSB (D) Q E So, SS = market surplus – EC = (B+F+G)- (G+B+C) = F-C. Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 11 Principles in Microeconomics If instead of QE, there were Q* units produced and consumed: - Market surplus = F+G and SS = F SS is higher at Q* and private surplus is lower at Q*. So gains to external agents (EC↓) must > losses to agents in the market. E $ As Q ↓ for Q to Q*: EC ↓ by B+C Market surplus ↓ by B. Thus, SS ↑ by C. MSC= MPC+MEC MPC (S) C B A Q* MSB (D) Q E Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 12 Principles in Microeconomics The Social surplus at competitive equilibrium is ‘C’ less than it would be at Q* rather than QE. Tells us the ‘C’ is the DWL due to the unaddressed externality. - The market has failed to maximizes SS. - This is what economists mean when then say market failure. - Market outcomes are not always the best outcomes. If we could decrease quantity from QE to Q*, better outcome for society. - Luckily, we already know lots of ways that policy can decrease output. - Note: not everyone will be better off at Q* than at QE. - This won’t be a win-win. - But, in aggregate, society is better off as measured by SS. Note again: the source of the DWL is due to MSC>MSB. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 13 Principles in Microeconomics Policies To Address Market Failure We know we need to decrease output from QE to Q*. - There are lots of policies that can get us there (Topic 4) - We will look in detail at an output tax. $ MSC= MPC+MEC MEC = t MPC (S) If we levy t=MEC, then MPC + t =MSC Obviously changes equilibrium output. MSB (D) Q* Q E Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 14 Principles in Microeconomics Losers and Winners: - Losers are consumers and producers. - Winners include the government, but now there is also an extra social gain in terms of decreased external cost. - I.e. lower pollution costs. $ MSC= MPC+MEC Change in CS=b+c+g <0 MEC =t MPC (S) b c g h n Change in PS = h+n<0 Total market losses are the same as Topic 4. MSB (D) Q* Q E Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 15 Principles in Microeconomics Government gains revenue= b + c + h. The difference is in terms of decreased EC. - Before tax, EC = m + h + c + n + g + k - After tax, EC= m + h + c. $ MSC= MPC+MEC Change in EC = n+g+k. MEC = t PC MPC (S) b k c g h n PF PP EC <0. Leads to a gain. m MSB (D) Q* Q E Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 16 Principles in Microeconomics Losses in market surplus: b + c + h + n + g Total gains: b + c + h + n + g + k Gain > losses by k, the DWL due to the uncorrected externality. Just as in Topic 4, policy creates winners and losers. $ MSC= MPC+MEC P MEC = t C MPC (S) b P k E P P c g h n Not everyone in society is better off, but society is better off as measured by SS. m MSB (D) Q* But for the first time in this course, the gains outweigh the losses. Q E Taxes lead to increased SS! Quantity Topic 5 Econ 103 page 17 Principles in Microeconomics Internalizing the Externality Recall that the source of the original DWL was the EC. - Agents in the market ignored EC, even though they exist and are just as real as any other cost. - It was like they were getting a factor of production for free. Market activities used a scarce resource – environmental quality – without paying for it. How to Fix? Make agents in the market “internalize” those costs. - That is what the tax does. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 18 Principles in Microeconomics - The tax doesn’t make market agents directly pay those who bear the pollution costs. - Instead it makes them pay an amount to the government that is equal to those costs. Policy such as this, are often described as having the effect of “internalizing the externality”. - What was once an external cost is now internal. - Taxes in this context are often referred to as “Pigovian” taxes. - Also sometime hear the language of “user pays” in this context. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 19 Principles in Microeconomics Couple more things to note: - The Pigovian tax does not eliminate pollution. - There are still EC > 0 at taxed equilibrium. - It instead makes sure that pollution is at its optimal level. - There are benefits to pollution as well as costs. - Pigovian tax ensures market weighs those costs and benefits properly. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 20 Principles in Microeconomics What to Tax? Pigovian tax we have considered here is an output tax. -Example: we know burning gas → pollution, so we tax gas. This gets the “right” outcome, but only given a certain MEC. In particular, Pigovian output tax creates no incentive to come up with new production techniques that result in lower EC. Creates no incentive to make output cleaner on the margin. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 21 Principles in Microeconomics Not a problem if we think there is little scope to decrease MEC. Example: one litre of gas always has 2.7 hg of CO2 due to physics and stuff. Nothing producers of gas can really do about it. Much bigger problem if there is possibly a lot of scope to decrease MEC. Example: electricity can be produced with a lot or a little carbon. If we set a tax rate for electricity that reflects current MEC, there is no incentive for producers to decrease MEC. Taxing electricity without reference to CO2 is not smart policy. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 22 Principles in Microeconomics Alternative: tax pollution directly, rather than indirectly via output. Set tax rate ‘t’ not on unit of output, but on units of pollution. Obviously will have effect in output markets. In world where MEC just cannot be reduced, will exactly replicate Pigovian output tax. Benefit is in cases where MEC can change: now there is an incentive to make output cleaner on the margin. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 23 Principles in Microeconomics To look at policies that target pollution levels directly, rather than indirectly, we need to think more about production. Why do firms pollute? Presumably, because there are benefits. Equivalently, producing output in “dirty” ways is cheaper for firms that producing output in clean ways. We can think about firms’ polluting decisions using the same framework as we use for all decision making: - polluting firms weigh marginal benefit of pollution against marginal cost of pollution. - But firms only weigh the MC and MB to them, not to society. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 24 Principles in Microeconomics We will denote pollution as P, but in some context you will see it denoted as E (E for emissions of pollution). Benefits: might seem odd to talk about the benefits of pollution, but reducing pollution entails a resource cost. Terminology: we call reducing pollution “pollution abatement”. So, the benefits of pollution are avoided abatement costs. Means the MB of pollution is just the avoided MC of abatement. Denote the MC of abatement MCA. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 25 Principles in Microeconomics There are good reasons to believe that at high levels of pollution, abatement is relatively cheap. If firms are not making any effort to reduce pollution, there is typically quick and cheap ways to clean up. But, as firms clean up their pollution, abatement becomes more costly on the margin. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 26 Principles in Microeconomics Abatement Policies MCA likely to be low at high pollution levels and high at low pollution levels. Tells us that MB of pollution is low at high pollution and high at low pollution levels. Remember: that MB of pollution is avoided MCA. $ MCA is a component of social costs. We will and should account for them when thinking about policy. MBP=MCA Pollution (P) Resources used to make production cleaner are resources that cannot be used for something else. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 27 Principles in Microeconomics Abatement Policies Recall, that the area under any marginal curve gives us total. So, the area under the MCA will measure costs of falling pollution. Suppose firms pollution from PMAX to P1 (i.e. abates A1). At PMAX it is making an effort to reduce P, so abatement ‘A’ costs are zero. $ At P1 it has incurred costs = area under MCA. MBP=MCA Blue triangle tells us the resource costs associated with cleaning up production process. P1 P A1=PMAX – P1 MAX Pollution (P) Topic 5 Econ 103 page 28 Principles in Microeconomics So, benefits of pollution (P) to a firm = avoided abatement (A) costs. What about costs of pollution to a firm? Is there a downside to polluting, to the firm’s bottom line? We are going to assume that absent regulation, there is no downside to polluting for firm. Means that private benefits to the firm from abatement are zero. MPC of pollution = MPB of abatement Topic 5 Econ 103 page 29 Principles in Microeconomics By our assumption, MPC of P = MPB of A = 0. Of course there are social costs of P, but if the firms are free to choose the level of P and MPC of P = 0, they will pollute until MB=0. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 30 Principles in Microeconomics Graphically, the firm will choose P= PMAX if MB of A = 0. $ Obviously there are social costs associated with pollution (SB of A). MBP=MCA Policy design is about trying to get polluting firms to account for those costs. P MAX Pollution (P) We want to think about what the social costs of pollution are, and in particular what the MSCP curve looks like. There are good reasons to believe that: - at low P, MSCP is relatively low - at high P, MSCP is relatively high. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 31 Principles in Microeconomics Graphically, the firm will choose P=PMAX. $ MBP=MCA MSCP Means that the MSCP curve is upward sloping. SS max is P=P*. P* P MAX Pollution (P) We want to think about what the social costs of pollution are, and in particular what the MSCP curve looks like. There are good reasons to believe that: - at low P, MSCP is relatively low - at high P, MSCP is relatively high. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 32 Principles in Microeconomics Policy Problem is clear in this context: - If we can know or measure MSCP, we can identify P*. - Just need to implement policies to get firms to set P=P*. Reality problem: we know P is costly, but it is extremely hard to get anyone to agree on exactly how costly. Measuring environmental costs are hard. Means that we can’t really expect to be able to identify P*. Instead, the real world of environmental policy ends up being about settling on some target level of abatement, that we think seems about right. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 33 Principles in Microeconomics Typically, pollution control targets are set via a political process, not by a bunch of economists estimating the MSCP. But, economics can tell us a lot about various ways to achieve politically determined pollution control targets. Factors that matter for choosing environmental policies: - Costs: all else equal, if there are low cost ways of improving the environment, these preferable to high costs way. - Simplicity of implementation, especially information of limits - Distribution: environmental policy is going to involve costs. Who is going to pay those costs? Topic 5 Econ 103 page 34 Principles in Microeconomics We want to look at three policies with the above in mind: - Pollution taxes Tradable pollution permits (a.k.a. “cap and trade”). Pollution standards. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 35 Principles in Microeconomics Pollution Taxes: Recall that the source of the problem is that the MPB of abatement (MPBA) to firms of reducing P is zero. Pollution taxes offer a simple fix. If firms must pay a per unit tax t for every unit of P, MPBA = t. By reducing pollution (abating) by one unit, firm avoids paying t. ► When firm chooses level of P it weighs MCA against MPBA = t. - If MCA > t, better to pay the tax and pollute. - If MCA < t, better to avoid the tax and abate. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 36 Principles in Microeconomics Tells us that firm will now choose P such that MCA= t. Instead of polluting PMAX, firm will abate at least some P. The amount of abatement depends on the tax: Higher t → more A →less P. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 37 Principles in Microeconomics Firm optimally chooses P such that MCA = t: $ MPBA < MCA A At PMAX, MPBA > MCA. MC MPBA T MPBA < MCA P ■ ► ► L P E P MAX Better for the firm to abate and avoid t. So, at a high P, firm will want to ↓ P. Pollution (P) At low P, MPBA < MCA → better for the firm to pollute and pay the tax. So at low P, firm will want to ↑ P. At P=PE, firm is doing the best it can, given t. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 38 Principles in Microeconomics If every polluting firm faces the same tax t, then each will optimally choose P such that MCA = t. Each firm will have the same MCA, at the level of P they emit. This is important: - Recall from Topic 2 that we want production to reflect MCs. - To get a given level of output at least cost, we want to exploit low MC production opportunities. - If one firm has high MC and another has low MC, we can get the same output at lower cost by reorganizing. - The same is true here; in this context the good we are producing is environmental improvement. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 39 Principles in Microeconomics If some firms can decrease pollution at relatively low MCA, then we want these firms to decrease pollution by more than firms who have relatively high MCA. Climate policy is costly; if we can get a given environmental improvement at low rather than high cost, this is a good thing. So emissions taxes ensure that the level of abatement we achieve is achieved at least cost. One potential downside of emissions taxes arises if there is uncertainty about exactly what abatement costs are. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 40 Principles in Microeconomics We know each firm will choose P such that MCA =t. But if we don’t know what firms’ MCA are, we can’t know in advance the level of reduced P that will be achieved. In practice, we adjust the tax over time as we observe the behavioural response of emitters: o If the initial t doesn’t get the environmental improvement we are looking for, we increase the t over time. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 41 Principles in Microeconomics Downside to this is that economic agents do not typically like tax uncertainty: businesses like regulatory certainty. Ideally we would like a policy that achieves a target level of abatement with certainty, and does so at least cost. This is what tradable emissions permit schemes are all about. Such policies also referred to as “cap and trade.” Topic 5 Econ 103 page 42 Principles in Microeconomics Cap and Trade: How do cap and trade programs work? Government sets a target for abatement/pollution. Prints “permits” equal in number to the target pollution level. Distributes permits to polluting firms. Various ways to do this, and it turns out to make no difference in terms of overall policy effectiveness. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 43 Principles in Microeconomics Each firm must own permits that are equal in number to the level of pollution it emits. If firms have more permits than they need, they can sell permits. If firms have fewer permits than they need, must buy permits. Recall: source of the problem of externalities is that firms have access to a scarce resource (the environment) at zero cost. Cap and trade literally creates a market for this scarce resource: - Means that firms now must pay for use, just like they must for all other inputs to production. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 44 Principles in Microeconomics We want to think about why would a firm want to buy or sell permits; then use this to look at equilibrium in the permit market. For each permit a firm holds, it faces a choice: - Use the permit to pollute, thus so avoiding having to incur abatement costs. - Sell the permit in the market, thus having to incur abatement costs. What a firm will do depends on the relationship between the price of permits p and the firm’s MCA. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 45 Principles in Microeconomics If MCA < p, then the firm can make money by selling the permit and reducing its own pollution. If MCA > p, then the firm is better off buying permits in the market and polluting. Tells us that, in the market for permit: - firms for who MCA < p will be sellers. - Firms for whom MCA> p will be buyers. As sellers of permits abate more, MCA will increase. As buyers of permits pollute more, MCA will fall. We will see that, in equilibrium all firms’ MCAs will be equal. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 46 Principles in Microeconomics Cap and Trade Example: Suppose we have two polluting firms. In the absence of regulation, each firm would produce 800 tonnes of CO2 /yr. That is, we have P1MAX = P2MAX =800 and aggregate PT= 1600. Government decides it wants to reduce aggregate emissions to 700. That is, we want PT = 700. So, the government prints 700 permits in total, where each permit allows the firm to emit one tonne of CO2. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 47 Principles in Microeconomics Assume the government gives each firm one half of permits. - Initial allocation gives each firm the right to pollute 350 tonnes. - Denote the level of P at the initial allocation of permits as P^. - So we have P1^ =P2^ = 350. Prior to regulation we have: - P1 = P1MAX =800 - P2 = P2MAX =800 At the initial allocation of permits we have: - P1 = P1^=350 - P2 = P2^ =350 Topic 5 Econ 103 page 48 Principles in Microeconomics So if no firm buys or sells permits, each must abate 450 units. A A MC ≠ MC Well see that if 1 2 at P= 350, there will be trade: - Low MCA firm sells and abates more than 350 units and - High MCA firm buys and abates less than 350. MC1A = MCA2 , In equilibrium, we will have permit price p = meaning that we reach aggregate target at least cost. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 49 Principles in Microeconomics Suppose our two firms MCAs are as drawn below. Recall each firm’s baseline P= 800, but each only gets 350 permits. Note: at initial allocation, MCA1 > MCA2. Means that at any p such that MCA1 > p > MCA2: - Firm 1 will buy permits - Firm 2 will sell permits. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 50 Principles in Microeconomics Firm 1: pays p, saves MCA1 → net gain = (MCA1- p) per permit. Firm 2: gets p, incurs MCA2 → net gain = (p – MCA2) per permit. Firm 1: P1↑→MCA1↓ Firm 2: P2↓ → MCA2 ↑ Trade reallocates abatement: - Away from high MCA firm - Towards low MCA firm Same environmental benefits at lower cost than before trade. P Topic 5 Econ 103 page 51 Principles in Microeconomics Note: the incentive for trade exists as long as MCA1 > MCA2. So trade continues until P1 = 500 and P2 = 200. At P1 = 500 and P2 = 200, MCA1 =MCA2. No further incentive for trade. Environmental target achieved at least cost. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 52 Principles in Microeconomics Given P1 = 500 and P2 = 200, equilibrium number of permits traded = 150. What about equilibrium price of permits? If permit market is perfectly competitive, equilibrium price is pE = $15. Only at pE = $15 is QD = DS in permit market. Note: pE = MCA1 =MCA2. Price is the mechanism that ensures least cost abatement. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 53 Principles in Microeconomics Equilibrium in permit market: - p (permit price) adjusts so QS = QD; each firm chooses P (level of emissions) subject (permit price) p = MCA. - Abatement target is met at least cost. - Each firm incurs compliance costs: ►Total abatement cost + cost of permits for buyers ►Total abatement costs – permit revenue for sellers. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 54 Principles in Microeconomics Another important point to note: equilibrium levels and pE are independent of the initial distribution of permits. Extremely important in the context of global climate policy. Too see this, rework previous example, but give all 700 permits to firm 2. Now regulation makes firm 2 better off at the expense of firm 1. Think about the relevance for distributional effects of climate policy. Why do we care about distribution of permits and compliance costs if it doesn’t matter for achieving efficient abatement? Topic 5 Econ 103 page 55 Principles in Microeconomics Because, distribution matters in political processes. The realities of global climate change problem: Poorer/less developed countries are low MCA. Richer countries are higher MCA. Efficient abatement dictates abatement activity takes place in poorer countries if we make them pay for it too. Permit policy can allow abatement to take place in poorer countries, but paid for by richer countries. We just need to allocate poorer countries enough permits, which they will then sell to richer countries. Topic 5 Econ 103 page 56 Principles in Microeconomics Concluding Remarks: External costs matter and unregulated markets do not ensure the best outcome for society where there are external costs. External benefits matter too. There are many ways to regulate: - Pigovian taxes - Abatement policies - Emission taxes - Cap and Trade - Emission standards Topic 5 Econ 103 page 57 Principles in Microeconomics Whatever the approach, there will be costs. Costs will end up being passed on to the consumers in output markets. Distribution matters for political and equity reasons. Can lessen hardship on low income households through rebates. Remember: point of policy is to change people’s behaviour.
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