The Rational Reverend’s
Razor is Sharpe!
Andy Novobilski, Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
One curious guy!
Full Disclosure …
• There are no new ideas ...
• THE Binary Computer
• Patterns just make sense
• Allows for simplifying assumptions
• People are fascinating ...
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Exceptionally creative
Creatures of habit
Capable of leaving the box on their own
Insatiable desire to be understood
Rational Behavior
• People will do things that are in their best
interest.
– What is “best interest?”
• People can defer immediate gain for a bigger
gain in the future.
– Balance current value against future value.
• The model breaks
– Sometimes people are selfless, some don’t care.
If People are So Complicated …
• Imagine what AIs will be like.
– Gene Rodenberry
– Arthur C. Clarke, Isaac Asimov, …
– Steven Spielberg, George Lucas
– Jonathan Nolan
• How will we know when we’ve achieved it?
– Alan Turing
– Colleagues in Neural Science might get there first!
Distilling Observations to Code
• Sir William of Occam
– And his razor …
• Games
– We love to play – actual or vicariously
– We’ll bet on anything
– Tit for Tat
Brain Based Learning …
• Ten Strategies to consider
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Movement matters
Social Conditions Influence Learning
The brain changes
Chronic Stress is an Issue
Differences are the rule
Learning happens in small chunks
Arts are important
Emotional states (social skills) Matter
The Brain can Change
Memories are Mallable
Model Children Learning to Play?
• The Reverend Thomas Bayes
– A letter written to a friend,
published after Bayes died.
• Laplace Develops it, and then
– the Central Limit Theorem
• Why a Bayesian Belief Net
and not a Neural Net?
One Way to Do It …
• Amazing how the same tools that forecast
medical outcomes will work to forecast
market outcomes.
• Sensor function of the brain emulated by
adaptive k-Means algorithm.
• Decision network function of the brain
emulated by Bayesian Belief Network (naïve?).
• Model Search supported by genetic algorithm
Tying it Back to Basics
• How to learn belief nets?
• How well did the system do?
– Single value measure
– ROC Curve Evaluation
• When is it time to retrain?
• What’s missing?
– Emotional content
What Does Intelligent Mean …
• When the game isn’t Zero-sum?
– Force Majeure, Force D’government
– Disruptive Techno-ideological Interference
• When competing “games” overlap and
rational behavior is difficult to understand.
• When people continue to evolve, yet remain
true to their nature over time?
If You’re Looking for Something to Do
• Kids at 10-11 tend to be open to exploring
new ideas
• Find a Master Teacher for grades 4-7 and find
out what works.
– Pedagogy
– Measurements
• What white/grey matter models make sense
in this context?
Questions …
• Andy Novobilski, PhD
– [email protected]
– [email protected]
– Drop an email if you want to talk …