Chicago Crime
Data Project
(CCDP)
John
Mounce
&
Billy Joe
Mills
Typical Chicago Criminal
Chicago Crime Blog


All past and future findings made by the
Mounce-Mills team will be posted at
www.chicagocrime.wordpress.com
Data downloads, maps, & graphs galore!
Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes
and Economic Wealth - 2005

Hypothesis


Violent crimes are more common in economically
poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy
neighborhoods.
Null Hypothesis

Violent crimes are no more common in
economically poor neighborhoods than in
economically wealthy neighborhoods.
Hypothesis 1: Poor
neighborhoods have more violent
crime than rich neighborhoods
About 31% of the variance in violent crime is
explained by household income levels

For every $1 increase in household income, the 2005
Violent Crime Index is reduced by 0.023 units.

Hypothesis 1: Poor
neighborhoods have more violent
crime than rich neighborhoods
Household Median Income 2005 Line Fit Plot
Violent Crime Index 2005
3,500
Violent Crime Index 2005
Predicted Violent Crime Index 2005
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Household Median Income 2005
For every increase in household income by $10,000,
violent crime lowers by 7.7%.

Hypothesis 1: Poor
neighborhoods have more violent
crime than rich neighborhoods
Violent crimes are more common in economically
poor neighborhoods than in economically wealthy
neighborhoods.
Violent Crime Index vs. Household Median Income
Year 2005
Household Median Income 2005
3500
Violent Crime Index 2005
80000
60000
2500
50000
2000
40000
1500
30000
1000
20000
500
10000
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Neighborhoods Ascending by Violent Crime Index 2005
70
Violent Crime Index
3000
70000
Income in US$

Hypothesis 1: Poor
neighborhoods have more violent
crime than rich neighborhoods
Violent Crime Index vs. Household Median Income
Year 2005
Household Median Income 2005
Violent Crime Index 2005
3500
80000
Income in US$
60000
2500
50000
2000
40000
1500
30000
1000
20000
500
10000
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Neighborhoods Ascending by Household Median Income 2005
Violent Crime Index
3000
70000
Hypothesis 1: Violent Crimes
and Economic Wealth - 2005
Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods
have more property crime than
poor neighborhoods

Reporter: Why do you rob banks?
Willie Sutton: Because that’s
where the money is.

Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods
have more property crime than
poor neighborhoods
Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods
have more property crime than
poor neighborhoods
Property Crime Index vs. Household Median Income Year 2005
Household Median Income 2005
80000
12000
Property Crime Index 2005
Income in US$
60000
8000
50000
6000
40000
30000
4000
20000
2000
10000
0
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Neighborhoods Ascending by Property Crime Index 2005
70
Property Crime Index
10000
70000
Hypothesis 2: Rich neighborhoods
have more property crime than
poor neighborhoods
Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of violent crime have
higher levels of property crime
About 49% of the variance in property crime is
explained by violent crime

For every 1 unit increase in the Violent Crime Index
2005, the Property Crime Index 2005 increases by
1.951 units

Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of violent crime have
higher levels of property crime
Violent Crime
Property Crime
Hypothesis 3: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of violent crime have
higher levels of property crime
About 58% of the variance in property crime is
explained by violent crime and household income

Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower violent crime

The Mounce Diversity Index explains about
40% of the variance in the Violent Crime
Index 2005
Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower violent crime

For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity
Index, violent crime decreases by 4%
Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower violent crime

The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about
36% of the variance in the Violent Crime
Index 2005
Hypothesis 4: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower violent crime

For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl
Diversity Index, violent crime decreases by 5.1%
Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower property crime

The Mounce Diversity Index explains about
9% of the variance in the Property Crime
Index 2005
Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower property crime

For every 10% increase in the Mounce Diversity
Index, property crime decreases by 2.4%
Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower property crime

The Herfindahl Diversity Index explains about
9% of the variance in the Property Crime
Index 2005
Hypothesis 5: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of racial diversity
have lower property crime

For every 10% increase in the Herfindahl Diversity
Index, property crime decreases by 3.1%
Problems with Diversity Index
Violent Crime
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations

For every 10% increase in the White
Population, violent crime decreases by 4.37%
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations

For every 10% increase in the Hispanic
Population, violent crime decreases by 2.77%
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations

For every 10% increase in the Asian
Population, violent crime decreases by 6.32%
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations

For every 10% increase in the Black
Population, violent crime increases by 3.67%
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations
Hypothesis 6: Violent Crime
and Racial Populations
Hypothesis 7: Low income
neighborhoods have more crime
at night
Hypothesis 8: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of education have
lower violent crime
Hypothesis 8: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of education have
lower violent crime

For every 10% increase in the Education
Index, violent crime decreases by 3.64%
Hypothesis 9: Neighborhoods with
higher levels of education have
lower property crime
Hypothesis 10: Neighborhoods
with higher male populations have
more violent crime
Hypothesis 10: Neighborhoods
with higher male populations have
more violent crime
Hypothesis 11: Neighborhoods
with higher male populations have
more property crime
Hypothesis 12: Neighborhoods
with a higher 12-24 age proportion
have higher violent crime
Hypothesis 13: Neighborhoods
with a higher 12-24 age proportion
have higher property crime
Hypothesis 14: Neighborhoods
with a higher 0-11 age proportion
have lower violent crime
Hypothesis 15: Neighborhoods
with a higher 0-11 age proportion
have lower property crime
Hypothesis 16: Neighborhoods
with higher youth populations
have more violent crime
Hypothesis 16: Neighborhoods
with higher youth populations
have more violent crime
Hypothesis 17: Neighborhoods
with higher youth populations
have more property crime
Hypothesis 18: Neighborhoods
with a greater proportion of
families with children have lower
violent crime
Hypothesis 18: Neighborhoods
with a greater proportion of
families with children have lower
violent crime
Hypothesis 19: Neighborhoods
with a greater proportion of
families with children have lower
property crime
Hypothesis 20: Neighborhoods
with higher proportions of single
parent females have higher violent
crime
Hypothesis 20: Neighborhoods
with higher proportions of single
parent females have higher violent
crime
Hypothesis 21: Neighborhoods
with higher proportions of single
parent females have higher
property crime
Hypothesis 22: Neighborhoods
with higher proportions of single
parent males have higher violent
crime
Hypothesis 23: Neighborhoods
with higher proportions of single
parent males have higher property
crime
Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Female Ratios
have higher violent crime
Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Female Ratios
have higher violent crime
Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Female Ratios
have higher property crime
Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Male Ratios have
higher violent crime
Hypothesis 24: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Male Ratios have
higher violent crime
Hypothesis 25: Neighborhoods
with higher BH Male Ratios have
higher property crime
Hypothesis 26: Neighborhoods
with higher Single Parent Female
Index have higher violent crime
Hypothesis 26: Neighborhoods
with higher Single Parent Female
Index have higher violent crime
Hypothesis 27: Neighborhoods
with higher Single Parent Female
Index have higher property crime
Hypothesis 28: Parent Soup
Big Soup – Violent Crime
Big Soup – Property Crime
Pax Obama - Wednesday
50
45
40
35
1-10
11-20
30
21-30
31-40
25
41-50
51-60
20
61-70
71-77
15
10
5
0
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8/24
8/31
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9/28
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10/12
10/19
10/26
11/2
11/9
Pax Obama - Thursday
35
30
25
1-10
11-20
20
21-30
31-40
41-50
15
51-60
61-70
71-77
10
5
0
6/22
6/29
7/6
7/13
7/20
7/27
8/3
8/10
8/17
8/24
8/31
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9/28
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10/12
10/19
10/26
11/2
11/9
Support Group: Coping with
underreporting bias
Violent Crime
Property Crime
Support Group: Coping with
underreporting bias
Problems with Data and
Methodology



Underreporting of crimes in a biased sample
of neighborhoods
Overly zealous enforcement of laws in a
biased sample of neighborhoods
Grafting 2008 crime data onto 2005
demographic data
Problems with Data and
Methodology

Is a one variable regression meaningful?

Condensing crime data into 77 data points
Concentrate on just a few hypotheses
