Gamechanger 2: Predicting evolution
The evolution of life is the hallmark of the natural sciences. Evolution is a central mechanism in the
origins of the astounding diversity of life and has a central role in the functioning of biological systems.
Understanding how life has evolved in interaction with the environment has been at the forefront of
science ever since Darwin. Evolutionary knowledge is also a powerful tool outside the biological
sciences, used in evolutionary medicine to understand disease, and in artificial intelligence to design
self-organizing life. More recently, emphasis has shifted to a forward-looking perspective of evolution,
underscoring the importance of understanding how species can adapt, in an evolutionary sense, to
current and future changes of their world.
This requires a deep understanding of the processes that play a role in evolutionary processes across
different levels of hierarchy and scale. Recently discovered evolutionary mechanisms, such as nongenetic forms of inheritance, genomic networks and the dynamic feedback between organisms and their
environments emphasize the need to formulate new principles on adaptation mechanisms and
transmission of information to the next generation that allow us to predict evolutionary potential and
trajectories. The real game-changer will be to predict the course of evolution for the adaptation of
current species to their environment.
A second requirement for a predictive framework of evolution will be insight in external conditions that
determine the rate of changes on our planet, such as the probability and magnitude of major planetary
events including volcanic eruptions, comet impact, changes in the ocean currents but especially also the
current anthropogenic changes such global climate change, as it is this environment which will
determine the selection to which evolution can respond to.
Predicting evolution can be instrumental in solving some of the major challenges that human societies
are facing today, such as the development of bacterial and viral resistance, pesticide resistance,
prevention of the outbreak of new diseases and epidemics, and adaptation of species to urbanisation
and climate change. Predictive insight should also enable us to leverage evolutionary processes to
promote biodiversity conservation, the slow process of the formation of new species, or to steer
artificial evolution in plant and animal breeding. A predictive understanding of evolution is also essential
for the de-novo synthesis of life and for steering life in potential extraterrestrial settings.