European Earth Observation and Copernicus Midstream Market

COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Final Extended Executive Summary
Specific Contract under the Framework Service Contract 89/PP/ENT/2011 – LOT 3
"European Earth Observation and Copernicus
Midstream Market Study"
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 1
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
CONTENTS
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ 3
1.1
Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 3
1.2
Status of the Copernicus Programme and Key Boundary Conditions ............................. 4
1.3
Earth Observation Data Sales Market Overview ................................................................ 5
1.4
Competitive Landscape ....................................................................................................... 7
1.5
Key Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 12
1.6
Impact of Copernicus ......................................................................................................... 13
1.7
Summary and Recommendations ..................................................................................... 21
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 2
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
1
1.1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
This document presents an Executive Summary of the “European Earth Observation (EO) and
Copernicus Market Study”, performed under the second Specific Contract of the Framework
Service Contract 89/PP/ENT/2011 – LOT 3 (“Support to GMES1 related policy measures”).
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the potential impact of the Copernicus programme
on the EO midstream data market, with a focus on the competitiveness effects arising from the “free
and open” data policy of Copernicus. A 6-step approach has been adopted:
Figure 1: Work Approach
The EO midstream sector is made up of operators that sell or distribute EO data to customers. It is
differentiated from the upstream sector, which includes manufacturing and operations of satellites,
launchers and ground stations, and from the downstream applications sector, in which data is
converted into value-added products.
Figure 2: Earth Observation Market Value Chain
1
GMES was renamed Copernicus in December 2012 (see http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-12-1345_en.htm).
However, the term GMES appears in several places for historical reasons.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 3
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
1.2
Status of the Copernicus Programme and Key Boundary Conditions
The European Union’s (EU) flagship Earth monitoring programme, Copernicus is being carried out in
partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA) and EU/ESA Member States. Copernicus is due
to commence operations in 2014, with funding assured for the period 2014-2020. The European
Parliament (EP) approved the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) budget which included € 3,786
Bn (2011 e.c.) for Copernicus, and a proposal for a regulation on the operational phase of Copernicus
was released by the European Commission (EC) on the 29th of May 2013, for approval by EP and
Council.
Figure 3: Copernicus Infrastructure and Ground Segment Scheme
A number of Copernicus services and several downstream services are in pre-operations, based on
joint ESA-EC funding. The Emergency Management and Land Monitoring services have been fully
operational since April 2012. The Coordinated Data Access System has been providing access to
data via ESA and Contributing Missions (CMs) since 2008, and the Sentinel Space and Ground
segment development is on track for the upcoming launch of the A-Units (Sentinel 1-A launch is
expected in 2014). Negotiations between ESA and the EC for the next phase of their bilateral
agreement have begun, aiming for completion by 2014. Several programmatic aspects remain in
need of finalisation i.e.: Sentinel ownership, long-term funding, data policy, procurement responsibility
and governance.
In 2010, the European Parliament approved the resolution on Copernicus data policy based on a
principle of full and open access to Sentinel satellite data. The data will be available through a free-ofcharge licensing and online access scheme, subject to security, technical, or programmatic
requirements. It is likely that the Data Policy of Contributing Missions will be regulated by bilateral
agreements and licensing schemes between the EC/ESA and the data providers. Where CM data is
supplied through EUMETSAT rather than ESA, licensing arrangements will be made directly between
EUMETSAT and the user. A Delegated Act on Data and Information Policy was adopted by the EC on
the 12th of July 2013.
Copernicus will act as a market entrant through the provision of Sentinel data – albeit a public rather
than commercial actor. The Copernicus data policy will establish the terms of its market entry. The
assumption of full, free and open data is critical for the scope of this study, as is the understanding of
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 4
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
more general, open issues related to Copernicus data policy which could influence market dynamics
(e.g. international/non-EU free distribution of Copernicus data).
In addition to entering the market as a provider, Copernicus will act as a customer to the midstream
sector through the Contributing Missions programme. Funding projections determine the impact of
Copernicus as customer, both in terms of overall volume and regarding variance over time. For the
purposes of the study, the ESA LTS has been taken as an input for determining Copernicus’
purchasing profile, as well as for the Sentinels launches and operations schedule.
1.3
Earth Observation Data Sales Market Overview
Global EO midstream turnover amounts to approximately € 1,2 Bn in 2012 and is expected to reach €
3,4 Bn by 2022, with an 11% CAGR2. Growth in the commercial data sector is now being driven by
wider global sales to defence users, particularly by countries with high imagery intelligence (IMINT)
requirements and limited viable proprietary solutions. In order to meet these needs, commercial
operators are finding success in providing direct access contracts to end-users, providing secure
imagery access to defence clients. With continued high demand, revenues from commercial data
sales to defence are expected to grow to € 1,8 Bn by 2022.
Figure 4: Global EO Midstream Sales Outlook by Customer Type
The commercial EO midstream sector will see a growing market for emerging countries, while Europe
is expected to grow at 9% CAGR, maintaining a ~15% share. In 2010, European EO satellite imagery
sales totalled € 165 M, while in 2011 the market generated approximately € 230 M.
2
Compound Annual Growth Rate.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 5
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 5: Global EO Midstream Sales Outlook by Geography
In total, 83% of all commercial data sales comes from optical solutions, representing approximately €
0,9 Bn in commercial revenues. The remaining 17% comes from SAR data solutions. Very high
resolution (VHR, sub-1m) datasets represent the bulk of data sales. Since defence is the key
customer for imagery intelligence applications, customers show a clear preference for higher
resolution and higher accuracy data sources; 60% of all optical data sales were from very high
resolution data. High-resolution data sets have also witnessed growing up-take.
Three baseline scenarios of European market development are considered to constitute a set of null
hypotheses. They represent possible evolutionary paths which unfold irrespectively of the effects
of Copernicus. The Low scenario represents a pessimistic, minimum growth scenario (roughly in line
with inflation, at 2% CAGR, the High scenario considers positive growth at 9%, in line with the global
trend and the Medium (Base Case) scenario projects 6% growth equilibrium between the two
extremes).
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 6
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 6: Commercial EO Midstream Growth Projections
1.4
Competitive Landscape
In 2012, three companies captured approximately 70% of the total global revenue for EO commercial
data sales: GeoEye (25%), DigitalGlobe (25%) and Astrium GEO-Information Services (20%). In
February 2013, GeoEye and DigitalGlobe completed their merger, creating a global industry leader.
Astrium and e-GEOS are the leading players in Europe holding over 70% of overall market share.
RapidEye, DMCii, Elecnor Deimos are the other relevant market players.
EO satellite data is distributed to end-users through several distribution channels, depending on user
requirements and company strategies, e.g.:

Direct sales from the company: preferred for key clients and anchor tenants

Direct access to the satellite: preferred by international government clients, particular
defence, for allowing more secure access to the satellite for direct data reception

Sales through dedicated resellers, or exclusive distribution agreements: allows the
operating company access to local markets through regional distributors. The creation of these
regional resellers distributing data from multiple satellite systems is in effect creating a further
localised step in the value chain between operators and end-users or service providers

Sales from company websites, e.g., online image libraries or hosted satellite data archives,
or satellite tasking through online portals: offers easy access to satellite data for end-users
that require less costly archive data or individual satellite pass tasking; online data distribution
mechanisms prove key to attracting commercial users that are often operating on more
stringent budgets
In order to offer complete geospatial solutions, commercial operators have begun to extend their
service offerings to include more value-added products and services. In addition, with increasing
image automation and freely-available software solutions, certain service areas, which were once the
realm of specialised companies, are becoming more standardised. Data distributors may also be
value-added companies that offer data as a further business line, blurring the boundaries between
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 7
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
functional units in the EO service supply chain. A diagram representing the midstream value chain
and showing the positioning of the key European players and their distribution roles is provided below.
Figure 7: Role of Main European EO Midstream Players
Although the midstream supply industry is globally dominated by large players (such as DigitalGlobe
in the US and Astrium in Europe), the analysis indicates that there is scope for competition by a range
of mid-sized (e-GEOS) and smaller players (RapidEye, DMCii). Whilst remaining largely driven by
government contracts, it is evident that the structure of the industry is beginning to evolve, with
potentially disruptive market entrants such as CloudEO.
In total, 149 satellites were launched for Earth Observation (including meteorology) between 2002
and 2011 from about 26 countries (including commercial missions), compared to 288 satellites from
42 different countries anticipated between 2012 and 2021 (Euroconsult 2012). Global civil
government investment in EO totalled € 5,1 Bn in 2011. The increased number of satellite missions
from commercial operators and governments will vastly expand the global data collection capacity for
Earth Observation purposes. Europe in particular will be a key player in the market place, having
launched several currently operational missions in recent years and planning to launch a number of
key missions with an overall investment of € 1,5 Bn in 2011 (approximately 80% government funded),
with Copernicus as the flagship European programme in this context.
In addition to the Sentinel satellites, Copernicus will rely on data provided by Contributing Missions
from Member States, EUMETSAT and other third party mission operators. The following categories of
Contributing Missions are considered:

VHR and HR Optical

VHR and HR X-SAR

EUMETSAT Meteorological / Oceanography / Climate

Other third party missions
These missions will be the main source of VHR data for Security and Emergency services, and will
also complement Sentinel data and products as needed. In the following charts, an overview of
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 8
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
current and planned Earth Observation Radar and Optical Missions in Europe, the US and Canada
(as the latter being also part of ESA) is provided. In addition to the Copernicus Sentinels, each of
these has the potential to contribute to Copernicus as “Contributing Missions”.
Outlook of Current and Foreseen Main European EO Radar Satellite Missions*
**
**
**
Low:
Medium:
High:
Very High:
res ≥ 10m
5m ≤ res < 10m
2,5m ≤ res < 5m
res < 2,5m
Govt. Missions:
Operational
Comm. Missions:
Operational
Estimated
Estimated
Sources: ESA Long Term Scenario, Euroconsult, De Lisle 2012, Maranesi 2009, eoportal.org, STP analysis
(*) For each satellite, the best possible image resolution is reported
(**) Referring to Sentinel-1 “Strip Map Mode” (5x5 m spatial resolution)
Outlook of Current and Foreseen Main European EO Optical Satellite Missions*
?
Low:
Medium:
High:
Very High:
res ≥ 10m
5m ≤ res < 10m
2,5m ≤ res < 5m
res < 2,5m
Govt. Missions:
Operational
Comm. Missions:
Operational
Estimated
Estimated
Sources: ESA Long Term Scenario, Euroconsult, SPOT 6-7 Technical Sheet, astrium-geo.com, eoportal.com, STP analysis
(*) For each satellite, the best possible image resolution is reported
Figure 8: Overview of Current and Planned Radar and Optical Missions
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 9
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
On average, low-medium resolution data (< 5m) are free, or cost approximately 0,1-2 €/km2, whereas
high and very high resolution solutions cost, on average, over 19 €/km2. Commercial operators
compete by offering further advantages, such as improved geometric accuracy, greater satellite revisit
time, higher resolutions (1m - 2,5m; the data price above 1m drops considerably) and radar data.
Copernicus is expected to impact mainly the commercial European market for non-VHR data.
Figure 9: Average Price per Km² of Main Commercial EO Products
The commercial data supply is expanding with the launches of new satellites, with a trend towards
increasingly high resolutions. With increasing competition, downward price pressure on data is
expected.
The EO data offer is characterised by many different variables, along both technical and service
dimensions. The combination of different dimensions/parameters determines the quality and the
value/price of each product offered.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 10
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 10: Data Acquisition and Service Dimensions of Satellite EO Offerings
In this regard, commercial missions offer relatively higher performance than Copernicus’ Sentinels on
a number of key dimensions, as depicted in the following figure.
Sentinels Vs. Commercial European Missions (Qualitative Performance Rating)
Optical
Sentinel 2
Key Observations
•
Commercial satellites (both optical and
radar) offer better resolution products at a
higher revisit time than Sentinels 1-2
•
The processing level of products from
Sentinel-1 is not defined at present
•
Radarsat has the largest number of
products on offer (15 different choices)
•
The geolocation accuracy of Sentinel-2 is
20m (without GCPs), whereas for SPOT,
Pléiades and RapidEye it is below 10m
(with GCPs)
•
Sentinel-2 will have 13 spectral bands (0.42.4 µm), whereas other commercial
missions generally only offer 5 bands
SPOT 6-7
Pléiades 1-2
RapidEye
DMC-3
Radar
Sentinel 1
COSMO-SkyMed
n.a.
Radarsat
TerraSar-X
Figure 11: Sentinels vs. Commercial European Missions (Qualitative Performance Rating)
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 11
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Sentinel data provision will influence market dynamics and commercial players’ strategies along a
number of key dimensions.
Figure 12: Dimensions of Copernicus' impact on market dynamics
In mid-2013, a group of commercial European midstream players jointly submitted a formal letter to
the European Commission, in which they expressed their concerns about the potential effects on their
businesses of Copernicus proposed free and open data policy. These include price pressure, which
would affect all commercial data providers, and the potential erosion of European players’ competitive
position against international entrants from low-cost labour markets.
1.5
Key Assumptions
The table below summarises the underlying assumptions used in this study.
Assumption
Scope
Copernicus is assumed to become operational in 2014 under the
full, open and free-of-charge data policy, as indicated in the
Proposal for Regulation COM (2013) 312.
Entire study
Only Sentinels 1 and 2 are considered to have a commercially
relevant impact on the midstream market, due to the scientific
nature of the other Sentinels.
All market impacts
Three baseline scenarios are assumed to represent low, medium
and high levels of market growth, at 2%, 6% and 9% respectively.
All market impacts
The analysis only takes into account the first generation of
Sentinels, with sensors in the Medium Resolution (MR) range.
Assessment of market
threats
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 12
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
The budget for the Contributing Missions programme is assumed to
align with that given in the ESA LTS document of April 2013. This is
an area of high uncertainty, and may be subject to review if new
information becomes available.
Assessment of market
opportunities
In the ESA LTS, the budget for data access from Contributing
Missions is projected up to 2027. In order to run the analysis up to
2030, the same budget level as in 2027 has been assumed for the
three years which follow.
All market impacts
The ESA LTS states that the budget for Contributing Missions
"includes the management and the operations of the Coordinated
Data Access system and the integration of new Contributing
Missions" (p. 20). The amount corresponding to these tasks is
assumed to be 8% of the total budget.
Employment impact
Threat and opportunity (demand stimulation in particular) effects
are assumed to attenuate over time, ending in 2022. The effect of
Copernicus as a customer remains in effect until the end of the
period.
All market impacts
Table 1: Summary of Key Assumptions
1.6
Impact of Copernicus
The effects of Copernicus on the market are seen in terms of either the threat posed by Copernicus
to certain markets, or the opportunities which become available. The availability of free Copernicus
data could take away market share from the data providers offering similar products and services. In
addition, there is downward pressure on the price of data expected from the influx of free data from
Copernicus. There is also an argument that the free and open availability of Copernicus services will
raise awareness of the range and utility of EO products, and thus increase the demand for similar
offerings, such as higher resolution imagery, or different product “bundling” and - further downstream
- value-added products. Contributing Mission data plays a key role in the provision of Copernicus
services. Currently Copernicus relies entirely on Contributing Mission data especially for Very High
Resolution data supporting the Emergency and Security services. In this way, Copernicus acts as a
customer (purchaser) of data, albeit as a rather small customer with respect to the overall market.
These threats and opportunities are modelled by developing a series of threat and opportunity
indices, by key customer segment, for each year in the period of analysis. The threat indices embed
the price pressure effect, whilst the opportunity indices incorporate the effect of demand stimulation,
as well as the impact of Copernicus as a customer. Taken together, the combined effect of the threat
and opportunity indices serve to show the net impact of Copernicus on the main market players.
Invariably, there is a considerable amount of inherent uncertainty in the threat and opportunity indices.
In assigning values to these indices, multiple sources of data were drawn upon, including interviews
with industry professionals, market data from other industries and published literature. Efforts have
been made to minimise the uncertainty and potential subjectivity in the data. Wherever possible, the
results have been cross-correlated across different data sources and a conservative approach has
been taken throughout (erring, in other words, on the side of maximum threat, and minimum
opportunity).
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 13
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 13: Summary of Threat and Opportunity Drivers
The impacts of Copernicus on European EO midstream industry turnover and employment have been
simulated on the basis of the modelling logic shown below.
Figure 14: Modelling Logic
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 14
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Different threat (cannibalisation) and opportunity (demand stimulus) indices have been applied as a
function of (1) the type of customer served by the midstream operators, and (2) the type of data
considered in each case.
Figure 15: Threat and Opportunity Indices by Market Segment
The impact of both threats and opportunities is expected to decrease over time, as companies adapt
to the cannibalisation effect (either by moving into different resolutions, or by adapting their offers with
product bundles or vertical integration) and the market responds to the pricing and demand stimulus
effects. For modelling purposes, threats and opportunities are assumed to end by 2022. The
exception is the effect of Copernicus as a customer, which remains in effect as long as the period of
the projected budget for the purchasing of Contributing Mission data. The budget in the ESA LTS
ends in 2028; for the purposes of the study it is assumed to continue to 2030 at the same level as
2028.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 15
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 16: Contributing Missions Proposed and Assumed Budgets
Five major industry players, together representing 95% of the market, have been analysed as a
representative sample. Since the focus of Sentinels 3, 4 and 5 is on scientific and research-oriented
applications, only Sentinels 1 and 2 have been taken into account in the analysis.
The results of the analysis indicate a broadly positive net impact of Copernicus on the EO
midstream sector. The net cumulative impact ranges between 6,0% and 11,3%, depending on the
initial growth scenario, with total opportunities outweighing threats in each market baseline scenario.
Examining the effects over time, it is possible to distinguish three phases in the incremental impact
curve. These correspond roughly to the periods 2014 to 2020, 2021 to 2022 and 2023 to 2028.
During the first phase, the threat to vulnerable players is most strongly felt as the first and second
units of Sentinels 1 and 2 enter orbit over the 2014 to 2015 period. The compound effect of price
decrease, market cannibalisation and a degree of stimulation for alternative products results in a
marginal net effect on the market, roughly between 4 and 8%. The net effect gradually decreases
towards 2020 as combined market threat levels reach their peak.
After 2020, the effect of Copernicus as a customer increases thanks to the increase in the projected
budget for Contributing Mission data. The market begins to adjust for the pricing and cannibalisation
effects, but the threats remain in force, resulting in a 6 to 7% positive net effect. Possible responses
by midstream players include restructuring their product or service portfolio to leverage or react to
Copernicus in the market, for example creating data bundling offerings to customers, adding further
processing to Copernicus data in order to generate new value-added data products, or rethinking their
distribution strategy and invest in international distribution channels. Some players will need to defend
their premium price in order to maintain their margins.
By 2023, the market is considered to have responded to the negative impacts. The beneficial
contribution of Copernicus as a customer remains in force until the end of the period. The resultant
positive effect on the market ranges between 10 and 15%.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 16
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
Figure 17: Cumulative Impact of Copernicus on Midstream Industry Turnover
Figure 18: Annual Incremental Net Impact of Copernicus on Midstream Industry Turnover (Medium
Scenarios)
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 17
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
The positive impact on the midstream market as a result of Copernicus can be seen in terms of the
increase to employment which comes about as a result of the increased turnover. An appreciable
impact on employment, of approximately 370 direct jobs in 2030, is also associated with the positive
net effect of Copernicus.
Figure 19: EO Midstream Employment Associated with Copernicus
A number of sensitivity options have been assessed to examine the effect of combinations of the
baseline scenarios with different levels of threat and opportunity on the market projections. Three
sensitivity scenarios have been designed in order to stress the model in different ways and highlight
best- and worst-case scenarios.
Figure 20: Sensitivity Analysis Scenarios
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 18
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
1. Static Opportunities, Variable Threats: This provides for “worst-case” Threat scenarios
against a static baseline of Opportunities. The model demonstrates low sensitivity to variance
in the threat indices; the maximum overall threat to industry is 5,6%.
Figure 21: Sensitivity Analysis: Static Opportunities, Variable Threats
2. Static Threats, Variable Opportunities: Maintaining the Threats stable (at a medium level)
and varying the Opportunities upwards and downwards allows the evaluation of “best-cases”.
Sensitivity to variance in the Opportunity indices is higher, with a maximum opportunity impact
of 19,5%.
Figure 22: Sensitivity Analysis: Static Threats, Variable Opportunities
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 19
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
3. Static Threats and Opportunities, Variable Impact of Copernicus as Customer: This is a
special case of (2), isolating the market effect of Copernicus as a purchaser of EO data. This
plays a highly determinant role, varying by 1,9% to 3,1% across scenarios.
Figure 23: Sensitivity Analysis: Copernicus as a Customer
Analysis of the “best” and “worst” cases also reveals the positive net effect of Copernicus on both
turnover and employment.
Figure 24: Best and Worst Case Impact on Turnover and Employment
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 20
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
A set of key issues and potential enabling factors required for the realisation of the market potential
stemming from the Copernicus programme have been identified for further consideration.

Strategic and Operational Coordination and Overall Governance
As highlighted in the industry interviews, the full benefits of Copernicus Sentinels in concert
with CMs remain unrealised. A Europe-wide orchestrated approach to Earth Observation
could contribute towards fully realising the benefits of European assets.

Sentinel Data Access, Reliability and Latency
The size of the threat of Copernicus to commercial operators depends on the way in which
access to data will be implemented. The downstream sector’s potential development is
dependent on efficient and reliable, commercially-optimised data accessibility. A consultation
on industry needs regarding commercially optimised access to Sentinel data would support
this enabler, eventually leading to enabling direct industry access to Sentinel data streams.

Long-Term Evolution of the Copernicus Programme
Much concern has been expressed over the longer-term potential evolution of the Copernicus
programme, both in terms of engendering user reliance on publicly-funded data sources, and
the risk that future Sentinels will enter into higher-resolution territory. The European
Commission could mitigate these concerns by developing a long-term roadmap indicating
future Copernicus resolution thresholds and demonstrating commitment to continuous data
supply in the current resolution region.

“Last mile” Processing for Sentinel Data
Resources and capacities for the pre-processing of Sentinel data (geometric and radiometric
correction) have not yet been formally established – although a number of pre-operational
projects are now underway in this regard3. These activities could form an opportunity for EU
service industry, if appropriate governance and purchasing structures are set up, and could
stand as an important enabler of further downstream stimulus.

Entrepreneurship and Investment
Copernicus presents a challenge to midstream companies who find themselves in competition
with a free and open data source. Addressing this challenge may necessitate repositioning
(e.g. entering higher-resolution markets, launching new satellites) or product differentiation.
Investor confidence and entrepreneurship within the midstream are considered to be enablers
for realising the potential opportunities from Copernicus.
1.7
Summary and Recommendations
The present study has been conducted with the primary objective of evaluating the potential impact of
the Copernicus programme on the midstream data market in terms of turnover, growth and
employment. Particular attention has been paid to the effects of the “free and open” data policy, under
which Copernicus is proposed to operate, on industry competitiveness. The Earth Observation
midstream sector is defined as being comprised of companies engaged in the sale or distribution of
EO data to customers, whether directly owning and operating satellite assets, operating satellites on
another party’s behalf, or acting as resellers of satellite data.
3
For example, GLASS (Global Lakes Sentinel Services , http://cordis.europa.eu/projects/rcn/106791_en.html) and SenSyF
(Sentinels Synergy Framework , http://cordis.europa.eu/projects/rcn/106568_en.html)
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 21
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
The global EO data sales market is valued at over € 1 Bn and is primarily constituted by VHR data
sales. The market is expected to reach over € 3 Bn in the next 10 years, at 11% CAGR, driven by
VHR and sales in emerging countries. The European EO Midstream sector generated € 0,2 Bn in
2012 and is forecast to grow at 6% annually in the medium/base scenario. The commercial data
supply is expanding with the launches of new satellites, with a trend towards increasingly high
resolutions. With increasing competition, downward price pressure on data is expected.
The effects of Copernicus on the EO midstream market take the form of both threats and
opportunities:

Copernicus will mainly impact the European midstream industry players selling non-VHR data,
with the overall threat estimated at approximately 5% of total industry turnover

On the opportunity side, a free and open data policy will act as a catalyst for the development
of the EO downstream market and, in turn, stimulate demand for the offerings of the VHR/HR
market

Data sales to Copernicus from Contributing Missions data providers will positively impact their
turnover and employment. The impact of Copernicus as a customer is highly determinant of
the positive net effect
The net impact of Copernicus on the EO midstream sector turnover is projected to be broadly
positive, ranging between approximately 6% and 11% delta against the 2014-2030 (medium growth)
baseline (€ 560-635 M cumulative impact). An appreciable impact on employment, of minimum
approximately 363 jobs in the 2030 base case scenario, is also associated with the positive net effect
of Copernicus. Nevertheless, a number of key issues need to be resolved in order to realise the
envisaged benefits and a set of critical enabling factors implemented for the midstream sector and
beyond. Four priority actions are recommended for the EO midstream sector in order to overcome
existing issues and enable the realisation of the benefits of Copernicus for EU industry:
1. Clarify the potential roles and responsibilities of midstream industry within the
Copernicus operational set-up and implement an industrial forum within the
governance structure of the Copernicus Programme
The potential for the contribution of midstream industry to Copernicus is linked to the development of
clear programme governance, particularly with regard to the interface with ESA. A formal mechanism
for consultation with industry should be established; to this end the concept of an industrial forum or
industry “round table” is proposed.
2. Define an operational plan for assuring Sentinel data access, reliability and latency
The issue of Sentinel data access, reliability and latency is crucial to the realisation of benefits from
the Copernicus programme. The success of the programme overall is hinged on making the data
commercially exploitable, and this means assuring access, reliability and low latency, whether by
means of the Collaborative Ground Segment or by building distribution networks in concert with
midstream players.
3. Develop long-term roadmap detailing the plans for future Sentinel evolution, including
funding commitments and envisaged procurement budget allocation (for both data and
services)
The relatively negative impact of Copernicus on the midstream sector can be significantly mitigated by
the development and publication of a coherent long-term roadmap. A long-term plan even at a fairly
high level would enable industry to position itself appropriately and mitigate the negative effects of the
programme.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 22
COPERNICUS GIO LOT3
4. Use the momentum of the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework period to prepare
for Copernicus customer-facing functions, including marketing, customer care and
service delivery.
The new financing period represents a marked departure from the research and development phase,
with Copernicus simultaneously shifting into a more stable state. Copernicus decision-makers and key
actors will need to consider strengthening the capabilities of Copernicus in the marketplace in terms
of key customer-facing functions, including marketing and distribution strategies, customer care and
account handling, and service delivery.
September 2013
Extended Executive Summary
Page 23