The Future of Work
NORA Interdisciplinary Seminar
North Carolina Education and Research Center
26 August 2009
John Howard, M.D., M.P.H., J.D.
Public Health Law Program
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Washington, D.C.
1
Changes to the Future of Work
• Workforce
– Age
– Gender
– “Retirement”
• Employment
– Flexible or “Precarious”
– Multiple Generations
– Physically Dispersed
• Hazards
– New Technologies
– Organization of Work and Stress
– MSDs and Robotics
2
Objectives
• State three demographic changes occurring in
the American workforce
• Identify two changes in the employment
relationship
• Describe the occupational safety and health
impact of a changing workforce and the steps
needed to protect workers
3
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Workforce growth
Chronologically-gifted workers
Diversity
Skill sets
Global and physically dispersed
Meaning of retirement
Balance between work and life
Multi-generational workforce
Disengaged from work
Occupational safety and health impact
4
Occupational Safety and Health Act
• “Congress declares it to be its purpose and
policy …
– To assure as far as possible every
working man and woman in the Nation
safe and healthful working conditions and
– To preserve our human resources--”
“By providing for research in the field of occupational safety and
health, including the psychological factors involved, and by
developing innovative methods, techniques, and approaches
for dealing with occupational safety and health problems.”
5
6
Growth Curves for U.S. Workers
Expected Labor Force and Labor Force Demand
250
200
Millions of People
150
Labor Needed
100
Labor Available
50
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
0
Source: Employment Policy Foundation analysis and
projections of Census/BLS and BEA7data.
Screeching to a Halt:
Growth in the Working-Age Population
1970-2010
200%
2010-2050
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
Mexico
Brazil
India
China
South
Korea
Australia Canada
US Netherlands Spain France
UK
Russia
Italy
Japan
Source: Deloitte Research/UN Population Division (http://esa.un.org/unpp/) It’s 2008: Do You
Know Where Your Talent Is? Why Acquisition and Retention Strategies Don’t Work, p. 6
8
Germany
Dramatically Different Patterns of
Growth by Age
Percent Growth in U.S. Population by Age: 2000-2010
3. Rapid growth in the over-55 workforce
80%
60%
48%
40%
18%
20%
5%
0%
-20%
5%
2. Few younger
workers entering
16-24
15%
25-34
-9%
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Age of Workers
1. Declining number of mid-career workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
9
. . . Continuing Into the Future
Percent Growth in U.S. Workforce by Age: 2000-2020
80%
73%
54%
60%
40%
20%
7%
8%
7%
3%
0%
-10%
-20%
under 14
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-55
55-64
65+
Age of Workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
10
In 2000, A Fairly “Young” World .
Under 5%
5% to 12.4%
12.5% to 20%
..
Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
11
. . . Rapidly Aging by 2025
Under 5%
5% to 12.4%
12.5% to 20%
Above 20%
Percent of Population Age 60+ in 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
12
Why? Dramatic Increase in
Life Expectancy
Average Life Expectancy at Birth in the U.S.
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
1900
1910
1920 1930
1940 1950 1960
1970 1980
1990
2000
Source: U.S. Social Security Administration
13
“Sudden” Boom in Life Expectancy
Life Expectancy at Birth: 1000 - 2000
Age
80
76.5
70
60
50
47
40
30
35
36
1400
1600
38
30
25
20
10
0
1000
1200
1800
1900
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
2000
14
And a Dramatic Drop in Birth Rates
Total Fertility Rate: 1960 ▀ and 2000 ▀
7
1960
2000
5.9
Total Fertility Rate
6
5
4
3.6
3.3
2.0
3.1
2.9
2.8
3
2
4.0
1.7
2.5
1.7
1.6
2.5
2.0
1.4
1.8
1.3
1.2
1
0
US
UK
France
Canada
Japan
Germany
Italy
China
Source: Age Wave
India
15
Reasons for Birth Rate Decline
• Economic
– Children as liability
– Versus asset
– 30% more income
• Social
– Germany
• Rabenmutter
– E.U. (Fascism)
– WorkLife Balance?
16
Reversal in the Works?
•
•
Total Fertility Rate vs.
Human Development Index
– Life expectancy
– Average income
– Level of education
•
↑ Fertility above HDI 0.9
•
Change in assumptions?
•
Ultimate outcome of development
– May not be a collapsing pop
– But zero pop growth
•
Source: Myrskyla et al, Nature (August 6, 2009)
17
Slower Workforce Growth: Can Labor
“Imports” Make Up the Difference?
• New immigrants (those entering U.S. post-1990)
– 50.3% of civilian workforce growth (1990-2001)
• Assuming today’s levels of immigration remain constant
– Immigrants will account for 50% of workforce growth (20062015)
– Immigrants will account for 100% of growth (2016-2050)
• But, labor “imports” are decreasing
– U.S. immigration restrictions for “authorized” immigrants
– Border fences and other methods may increase
– Opportunities in developing countries
• Even if assumption holds, immigration is not expected to make
up the difference between labor demand and labor supply
18
Econ 101
• All other things being equal (including
productivity)
• Slower workforce growth means slower
growth in the level of goods and
services an economy can provide
19
Diversity 2005-2050
Immigration
• US population will increase to 438 million by 2050
– 82% from immigrants arriving and their US-born
descendants
– Of 117 million people added
• 67 million will be immigrants, primarily from
Mexico and Central and South America
• 50 million will be US-born children or
grandchildren
• White, Non-Hispanic and White, Hispanic
– White, Hispanic population will triple in size and will account for
most of the US population growth from 2005 to 2050
– White, non-Hispanic population will be 47% by 2050
– Hispanics will be 29% of US population in 2050, compared with
14% in 2005
20
Diversity 2005-2050
Gender
• Women head of household
– In 1950, 9.3% households headed by singles (only a fraction
were women)
– 1n 1995, nearly 30% of households headed by women
• In 1999, womens workforce participation rate peaked at 60% after
years of growth
• Until 2015, share of workforce will increase for women
– After 2015, woman’s participation rate will decrease at a faster
rate than men’s
• Work participation rates for Latinas are among the lowest among the
top ethnic groups
• White, non-Hispanic, working-age population is expected to have the
biggest decrease. but this group has the highest female participation
rate
21
Needed Skills in Short Supply
• Over the next decade, only 30% of US 20 year/olds will obtain a
college degree, but 2/3’s of new jobs will require a college
degree
• Key skill sets will be in critically short supply:
– # students that declared their major in computer science has
declined for past 4 years—now 39% lower than in 2000
– Other shortages: engineering, physical & biological sciences
• A growing number of high school dropouts
• Fewer high school graduates with vocational training
• Labor “imports” decreasing due to security restrictions and
opportunities in rapidly developing countries
Source: In part, The Seventh-Annual Workplace Report, Challenges Facing the
American Workplace, Summary of Findings,” Employment Policy Foundation,
2002; India Daily, October 12, 2005, citing McKinsey & Co. Research; Computing
Research Association, March 2005; Information Week, August 16, 2004; Holding
on to Global Talent: Foreign-born stars are heading home.
22
When I was growing up, my parents used to
say to me, "Tom, finish your dinner. People
in China and India are starving."
Today I tell my girls, "Finish your
homework. People in China and India are
starving for your jobs."
—Thomas
Friedman, The
World is Flat
Source: “The New York Times' Thomas Friedman
on Globalization,” CIO Magazine, March 25, 2005
23
Global and Physically Dispersed
• Labor shortages and cost drivers
– Will lead to more “off shoring” or “smart shoring”
• Global Workplaces
– Corporations operate as digitally connected communities of
various employees, contractors and partners
– Regional “hotspots” like Hong Kong, Bangalore, Dubai,
Singapore
• Physically Dispersed Workplaces
– Increasingly, work can be done anywhere, anytime rather
than in fixed locations on 9 to 5 schedules
– Virtual workplaces dispersed in time and location
24
Webster's Definition of Retirement
• to disappear
• to go away
• to withdraw
Source: Webster's New Twentieth
Century Dictionary
25
“Gold Watch” Age Comparisons
(1960 vs. 1995)
68
1960
1995
67.2
66
64
66.2
66.5
66.2
66.5
65.2
64.5
64.5
63.6
62
62.3
60
60.5
62.7
60.6
59.2
58
56
France
Germany
Italy
Canada
UK
US
Japan
Source: Center for Strategic and
International Studies
26
Expected Years of “Post-Retirement”
(Gendell, Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2008)
Period of
Time
Years PostRetirement
Males
Years PostRetirement
Women
1950-1955
12.0
13.6
1965-1970
13.5
16.7
1980-1985
16.0
20.5
1990-1995
17.2
21.3
2000-2005
19.0
23.1
27
More Years Spent in “Retirement”
Than Your In Your “Career”
35
30 +
30
25
20-25
19.4
Years
20
13.6
15
10
5
1.2
0
1900
1980
1990
2000
Source: Age Wave, based on U.S. data, and
The Concours Group
2010
28
Shifting the Old WorkLife Balance
0
Age
10
20
Education
30
40
50
Work
60
70
80
Leisure
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
29
. . . To a “Cyclic” Life Paradigm
0
Age
10
20
Education
30
40
50
Work
60
70
80
Leisure
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
30
. . . Evolving to a “Blended Lifestyle”
0
Age
10
20
Education
30
40
50
Work
60
70
80
Leisure
Source: Demography is De$tiny,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
31
Cutting Back Has New Meaning:
Cyclic Work
The most popular pattern for
working after “retirement” is
not part-time, but moving
back and forth between
periods of working and not
working.
49%
39%
12%
Working full-time
Working part-time
Moving back and forth
between working full-time
and not working
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2004
32
New Life Stage
• Opportunities
– Satisfaction
– Exploration
– Productivity
• Reinvention
– Entrepreneurial
– Charitable
– Flexible
• Potential for rejuvenation
of the economy?
Source: Demography is De$tiny, The
Concours Group and Age Wave, 2003
33
Managing A “Multi-Generational”
Workforce
Traditionalist
Born: 1928-1945
Boomer
Born: 1946-1964
Generation X
Generation Y
Born: 1965-1980
Born: 1980-2000
Four generations (cultures) are being asked to coexist in the
early 21st century workplace
Source: Based in part on “Meeting the Challenges of
Tomorrow's Workplace,” CEO Magazine, 2005
34
Disengaged from Work?
• National
– Dependency Ratio
• Number of children and elderly compared with number of
working-age Americans
– 59 per 100 in 2005
– 72 per 100 in 2050
• Individual
– Is that all there is?
• Traditionalists choosing different work for 2nd career
• X and Y disillusioned with “traditional” work
– Generational Attitudes About “Getting Ahead”
• Attitudinal Diversity
35
Falling Desire for Jobs
with Greater Responsibility
1992
80%
2002
69%
60%
54%
41%
31%
14% 15%
Under 23 years old
(Gen-Y in 2002)
23-37 years old
(Gen-X in 2002)
38-57 years old 58 or more years old
(Boomers in 2002)
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace,
An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
36
Declining Desire for Jobs with Greater
Responsibility By Gender
Employees Wanting Jobs with Greater Responsibility
Men
Women
57%
68%
52%
1992
2002
36%
1992
2002
Source: Generation & Gender in the Workplace,
An Issue Brief by Families and Work Institute
37
Lower Alignment with the Organization
65
70
60
50
61
57
45
53
52
48
39
40
44
32
30
35
28
20
10
0
I really care about the fate I’m willing to put in effort I find my values and the
of this organization
beyond that normally organization’s are similar
(agree)
expected to help the
(agree)
organization be
successful (agree)
Y
X
Boomer
Traditionalist
Source: The New Employee/Employer Equation,
The Concours Group and Age Wave, 2004
38
Impact on Occupational Health & Safety
39
The Alaska v. Florida Comparison
40
Do Older Workers Cost More?
41
General Health: Better Now
42
Study of Aging Workers
• In 2003, NIOSH asked National Research
Council to:
– Characterize the older adult workforce over next 2030 years
– Identify the key policy and research issues
– Address retirement patterns and characteristics of
the older adult workforce and their jobs
– Conduct workshop on differential effects of
environmental hazards
43
National Research Council Study (2004)
• Life course perspective emphasizes aging productively
(functional category) versus age (status category)
• Begin early to detect age-related changes that can be
adversely affected by working conditions
• Disease risk factors should be addressed to extend
years of healthy working
• Promote research to capture precursors of age-related
changes
44
Proportion of 50 yr-olds Still Employed
at Subsequent Ages
by Age Attained and Class (U.S.)
80
70
60
50
60
65
70
40
30
20
10
0
White Collar
Blue Collar
Service
45
U.S. Bureau of Census 1981-2000
Aging: A Balance of Factors
• Possible Limitations
– Mental Capacity
– Chronic Conditions
– Physical Capacity
• Compensating Factors?
– Attitude
– Judgment
– Flexibility
– Experience
46
Mental Capacity
Does long work experience advantage
older workers in thinking through
problems in comparison to new workers?
Can older workers be trained in new
technologies?
Is the modern workplace too complex
or too technical for the older workers?
Do older workers bring more experiential
intelligence to the job?
47
Mental Capacity
• Laboratory Tests
– Cognition speed
• Information retrieval slower, unless material
is familiar
– Learning and recall slower, but equally
successful in the end
– Greater retention, higher learning
achievement and more likely to
complete a new field of study than
younger workers
48
Mental Capacity:
Relevance to On-the-Job Performance
• Lab tests do not translate well to actual
work settings
• Factors other than psychometric cognitive
abilities appear important to perform well
at work
– How well worker gets along with co-workers
– Desire to perform well
• Individual measures are quite sensitive to
occupational class
49
Age and Chronic Conditions
50
Workers with >1 Chronic Condition by
Age (U.S.)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
>1
51-64
65-74
85
Non-workers
51
HRS 1998
Chronic Diseases in US
• 83% of all population over age 65 have
a chronic condition
• 23% have 5 or more chronic conditions
• Over 85 years have the most chronic
conditions
• By 2015, 150 million Americans will
have at least one chronic condition
52
Diagnoses Among Disability Female
Pensioners by Age
(Sweden 1990-1993)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
<29
Psych Disorders
30-44
Cardiovascular
45+
MSD
53
Höög & Stattin, 1996
Physical Capacity: Can Older Workers
Keep Up?
• Physiology
– Maximal strength at 20-30 years
– O2 uptake reduced to 70% (max) by 65 years
– Older adults work closer to capacity
• Match Ability to Job Requirements
– Change in industry from manufacturing to
services
– Change in job duties from physical to mental
– Concept is important in physiology,
occupational medicine, and in the law of
discrimination
54
Work Settings:
Employing Older Workers
• Decreased performance
– For physically demanding work only
• Work uncommonly demands maximal effort
• Non-physical advantages that older workers
bring to a job are rarely measured
• Workers abilities matched to the job results
in less morbidity
– Accommodation thinking rare in industry1
• May change with ADA Amendments Act of 2008
• Workers are changing (aging) and jobs are changing
1
Eur J App Phys 2003 89:536
55
It All Depends on What You Mean by Work!
56
Trends in Workplace
Physical Stressors
As the U.S. service sector increases and
manufacturing jobs decrease, are physical
stressors decreasing in US jobs?
57
Exposure to Physical Stressors
E.U. 1990-2000
50
40
30
20
10
0
Painful/Tiring Positions
1990
Handling Heavy Loads
1995
2000
58
Working Conditions in the EU – Euro. Fnd.
Exposure to Physical Hazards (EU)
By Type of Work Contract (1995)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Repetitive
Tasks
Repetitive
Movement
Permanent Employment
Painful/Tiring
Work Postures
Fixed-term
Temporary
59
Working Conditions in the EU – Euro. Fnd.
Aging Productivity
• Injury risk and its consequences differ in older workers
• Medical costs rise with age
– Estimated 25% increase from age 40 to 50 to 35%
from age 50 to 60
• BUT, age is less a factor in health care costs than the
presence of such risk factors as smoking, obesity, lack
of exercise, and diabetes!
• There is indeed such a thing as “aging productively” or
“healthy aging”!
60
Future Research Needs
• Conduct Longitudinal Studies of Older Workers
– Impact of work risks on older workers
– Interactions with chronic health conditions
– Socio-Economics Status relationships to:
• Hazardous employment
• Retirement decisions and barriers to continued work
• Surveys
– Update National Occupational Exposure Survey (NIOSH and
OSHA)
– Develop a new Quality of Employment Survey (NIOSH and OSHA)
• Develop ability to measure rates by age, gender and ethnicity
(BLS)
• Aging Productively Management Programs (thesis topic)
61
Older Workers: Some Best Practices and
Strategies for Engaging and Retaining Older
Workers
GAO-07-433T February 28, 2007
• Key Obstacles
–
–
–
–
Employer perceptions
Age discrimination
Strong financial incentives to retire
Jobs with inflexible schedule or unmodified physical demands
• Best Practices
– Non-traditional recruiting techniques
– Flexible work schedules
– Adapt to “retirement” schedules
• Strategies
– Make federal government model employer for older workers
– Consider specific legislation
62
2009 Aging Worker Federal Legislation
• Older Worker Opportunity Act of 2009 (S.502)
– Would diminish barriers to part-time work for older workers
such as loss of health coverage and decreased pension
benefits by providing a tax credit to hire older workers
• S. 469/H.R. 1198
– Would make it easier for feds to rehire fed retirees part-time
without forcing worker to reduce their salary by their pension
amount
• Phased Retirement Bill
– Would allow phased retirement for federal workers
• Health Care & Training for Older Workers Act
of 2009 (S.281)
– Would extend COBRA from time of retirement until seniors become
eligible for Medicare at age 65
63
Unknowns About 21st Century Workforce
• Will nations change policies to
Immigration encourage or discourage
immigration? And would it help?
Outsourcing • How fast will it develop? Where?
• Will more retirees remain active and
“recareer” in later life?
Retirement
• Will the average retirement age
change because of social policy
changes?
64
Pushing Forward Retirement
• In 1935, when America set up its Social
Security system, the official pension age
was 65 years of age
– Three years beyond lifespan of typical
American!
– State-sponsored retirement was designed to
be a brief sunset to life, for a few hardy souls
– Now, retirement is becoming as long as
whole lives once were!
65
National Dependency Ratio: Index of Health?
• US Ratio
– 2005: 59/100
– 2050: 72/100
• Another way
– 1950
• 16 workers/1 retiree
– 2005
• 3.3 workers/retiree
– 2020
• 2 workers/retiree
66
Demographic Social Policies
• Demographically insane
– Job creation schemes that encourage older workers
to early retirements
• Demographically sane
–
–
–
–
–
Make benefits more portable
Encourage immigration
Ban mandatory retirement ages
Create “gradual” retirement
Increase retirement ages for government pensions
• Based on the maxim that if something cannot go on
forever, it will stop
67
Take Home Points
• Do older workers need special accommodations?
– A well-designed workplace benefits everyone
– Work stations and job tasks need to be matched to the capacity
of each worker
– Prevention through exercised of sound ergonomic principles is
better than post-injury reasonable accommodations
• Are there any specific health and safety concerns related to
aging workers?
– Older workers have fewer injuries, but when one occurs, that
injury tends to be more severe and it takes worker longer to get
better.
– Pay attention to return-to-work programs
– Injuries differ in older workers—there are more musculoskeletal
injuries (especially involving the low back)
• What about safe driving training?
– Accidents are increased above age 55 years in every study
68
Remember
There is no consistent relationship
between aging and work
performance!
69
Thank you for your attention!
[email protected]
70
References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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71