Taking Calculated Risk in Peel’s
Water Transmission System using
ArcGIS Model Builder
Presented by: Imran Motala M.Eng., P.Eng., PMP
Ron Galos B.E.S., GIS-AS
October 14, 2015
Organization Overview
Regional Municipality of Peel
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2nd Largest municipality in Ontario
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1.4 million residents
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Comprised of the Cities of Brampton and Mississauga, and the
Town of Caledon
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~780 km of water transmission pipes
GHD Inc.
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Engineering Consulting
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Mississauga, Ontario
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Employees: ~1400 (Canada) ~8500 (Global)
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Esri users since 2006
Project Team
Region of Peel
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Operations and Maintenance
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Program Planning
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Capital Works
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Information Management Systems
GHD – Industry Specialists
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Risk Assessment (Canada)
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Water Operations (Canada)
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Hydraulic Modeling (USA)
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GIS Services (Canada)
Project Objectives
1.
Characterize risk associated with transmission and sub
transmission water mains
2.
Develop risk management plans for high risk/critical assets
3.
Develop a long-term capital plan to reduce overall risk
4.
Develop a risk tool to repeat and update risk assessments
Project Description
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GIS based critical pipe analysis
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Define water pipe criticality
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Collaboratively establish a risk framework during workshops
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Develop a geo-processing model
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Evaluate and summarize results
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Support informed decision-making for prioritization
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Proactive approach to preventative maintenance
System Environment
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Standard system hardware architecture
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GIS Modeling – Esri ArcGIS ModelBuilder
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Hydraulic Modeling – Innovyze InfoWater
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Data Source – Region of Peel
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Spatial
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Tabular
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Institutional Knowledge
Defining Critical Pipes
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Asset Characterization
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Simplify 4500 watermain pipes into homogeneous segments
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Group codes assigned based on water pressure zone, pipe diameter,
material, age, and proximity to physical and environmental constraints
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Semi-automated using ModelBuilder and then results refined during
workshops
4500
segments
1700
segments
Defining Critical Pipes
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Threat Characterization
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Developed a list of 16 threat events which may result in failure of the
watermains
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Utilized the Region’s corporate likelihood matrix to evaluate each
threat’s possibility of occurrence
Defining Critical Pipes
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Consequence Analysis
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Assess the impact of watermain segment failures socially, financially,
and environmentally (10 impacts)
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Measured on a 1 (negligible) to 5 (catastrophic) scale
Defining Critical Pipes
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Vulnerability Analysis
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Assess the extent to which watermains segments can withstand each
potential threat event
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Vulnerability Scale: 0%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%
Defining Critical Pipes
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Risk Analysis
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Risk = Likelihood * Vulnerability * Resilience * Consequence
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Likelihood
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Vulnerability
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Potential threats to the system
Potential weaknesses
Resilience
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Ability to withstand failure
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Resilience = Likelihood * Vulnerability * Severity * Duration
Consequence
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Potential impact of failure
Geo-processing Model
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Comprised of 42 individual models
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2 Categories of models
- Data Preparation
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Create new fields
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Extract subsets from data
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Assign Values
Data Calculation
Geo-processing Model
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Data Preparation
Geo-processing Model
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Likelihood
Geo-processing Model
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Vulnerability
Geo-processing Model
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Resilience
Geo-processing Model
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Consequence
Geo-processing Model
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Risk Score Calculation
Model Output
Results
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Top 10 Highest Risk Scores
Results
Results
Benefits
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Model decision processes with ModelBuilder
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Run complex spatial and attribute queries with GIS tools
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Perform calculations in GIS environment
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Repeatable decision processes of 16 threats for 1500 pipe
segments
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Update process as needed
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Connect service level objectives to strategy
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Optimization of preventative maintenance
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Support decision-making processes
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Increased productivity
Lessons Learned
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What would we do differently?
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Streamline models for better organization and efficiency
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Address information and data gaps to improve quality of
assessment results
Positive recommendations for others
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Build multi-disciplinary teams
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Maximize the analytical capability of GIS
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Respond to business needs with innovative solutions
Future Plans
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What is the next step to your project?
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Completion of processing latest (2015) dataset
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Utilize what we have learned from this project to enhance and
streamline current wastewater critical pipe analysis project
How do you think your organization will leverage this
achievement
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Region of Peel - Develop mitigation strategies for the critical pipe
segments
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GHD – Utilize the critical pipe analysis process to assist other
clients
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