UNITED STates institute of peace
peaceBrieF100
United States Institute of Peace • www.usip.org • Tel. 202.457.1700 • Fax. 202.429.6063
Moeed Yusuf
E-mail: [email protected]
Huma Yusuf
E-mail: [email protected]
Salman Zaidi
E-mail: [email protected]
July 25, 2011
Pakistan, the United States and
the End Game in Afghanistan:
Perceptions of Pakistan’s Foreign
Policy Elite
Summary
• This brief summarizes the perceptions of Pakistani foreign policy elite about Pakistan’s
strategy and interests in Afghanistan, its view of the impending “end game”, and the implications of its policies towards Afghanistan for the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. These perceptions
were captured as part of a project, co-convened by the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and Jinnah Institute (JI) in Pakistan, aimed at better understanding Pakistan’s outlook towards
the evolving situation in Afghanistan. A full report carrying detailed findings will be launched
in August 2011 in Pakistan.
• Pakistani foreign policy elite perceive their country to be seeking: (i) a degree of stability
in Afghanistan; (ii) an inclusive government in Kabul; and (iii) to limit Indian presence in
Afghanistan to development activities.
“
Pakistani policy faces a
dilemma vis-à-vis the U.S.
On the one hand, U.S. military
operations in Afghanistan
are believed to be causing
an internal backlash in terms
of militancy and deepening
the state-society rift within
Pakistan. On the other hand,
• They perceive America’s Afghanistan strategy to date to be largely inconsistent with
Pakistan’s interests.
• Pakistan insists on an immediate, yet patient effort at inclusive reconciliation involving all
major Afghan stakeholders, including the main Afghan Taliban factions.
• Other issues that Pakistan’s policy elite view as impediments to a peaceful Afghanistan settlement include: questionable viability of a regional framework; lack of clarity on Taliban’s willingness to negotiate; the unstable political and economic situation in Afghanistan; and concerns
about Afghan National Security Forces adding to instability in the future.
• Project participants felt that greater clarity in U.S. and Pakistani policies is critical to avoid
failure in Afghanistan, to convince the Taliban of the validity of a power-sharing agreement,
and to urge regional actors to play a more constructive role.
Pakistani policy elite appreciate
that a premature U.S. troop
withdrawal would lead to added
”
instability in Afghanistan.
© USIP and Jinnah Institute 2011
Introduction
As the so-called “end game” in Afghanistan approaches, the momentum is growing to find an
amicable solution to the conflict. The U.S. and other troop contributing countries are committed
to transferring primary security responsibilities to Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by
Pakistan, the United States and the End Game in Afghanistan:
page 2 • PB 100 • July 25, 2011
Perceptions of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Elite
December 2014. While an internal consensus among Afghan actors remains the most crucial
element of any settlement, regional players also have an important role to play in facilitating
progress. Among them, Pakistan’s role is pivotal.
This brief captures the perceptions of Pakistani foreign policy elite who were invited to participate in roundtable discussions and interviews as part of the USIP-JI project described in the
summary above. Given Pakistan’s centrality, such an exercise holds tremendous value for those
grappling to identify ways to secure a successful transition in Afghanistan.
Specifically, the USIP-JI project focused on four themes:
i. America’s evolving strategy in Afghanistan;
ii.Pakistan’s short-term and long-term interests in Afghanistan; and how Pakistan is pursuing these interests;
iii.In light of America’s strategy and its implications for Afghanistan and the region, how can
Pakistan best pursue its interests going forward;
iv.Policies that the U.S., Afghanistan, India (and other regional actors) would have to pursue
or accept for Pakistani objectives to be met.
Project findings are based on discussions with a wide spectrum of Pakistan’s foreign policy
elite—retired civilian and military officials, analysts, journalists and civil society practitioners—with
established expertise on Afghanistan and/or with knowledge of the modalities of policymaking in
the U.S. The project also solicited views of senior politicians.
Pakistan’s Objectives in Afghanistan
In terms of the end game, Pakistani policy elite see their state as having two overriding objectives:
• The “settlement” in Afghanistan should not lead to a negative spillover such that it contributes to further instability in Pakistan or causes resentment among Pakistani Pushtuns; and
• The government in Kabul should not be antagonistic to Pakistan and should not allow its
territory to be used against Pakistani state interests.
Translated into actionable policy, these umbrella objectives lead Pakistan to pursue three
outcomes:
i.A degree of stability in Afghanistan: Pakistan’s interests are best served by a relatively
stable government in Kabul that is not hostile towards Pakistan. There is across the board
realization among the policy elite that persistent instability in Afghanistan will have
numerous fallouts that Pakistan is ill-prepared to tackle.
ii.An inclusive government in Kabul: Pakistan would prefer a negotiated configuration with
adequate Pushtun representation that is recognized by all ethnic and political stakeholders in Afghanistan. Some opinion makers insist that a sustainable arrangement would
necessarily require the main Afghan Taliban factions—particularly Mullah Omar’s group
and the Haqqani network—to be part of the new political arrangement.
iii. L imiting Indian presence to development activities: Pakistani foreign policy elite accept
that India has a role to play in Afghanistan’s economic progress and prosperity. However,
many believe that the present Indian engagement goes beyond strictly development
and thus raises concerns in Pakistan. As the Pakistani security establishment sees the
dynamic, a reluctance to address Pakistani misgivings increases the likelihood of a growing Indian footprint, and in turn, New Delhi’s greater ability to manipulate the end game
negotiations and the post-settlement dispensation in Kabul.
© USIP and Jinnah Institute 2011 • All rights reserved.
Pakistan, the United States and the End Game in Afghanistan:
page 3 • PB 100 • July 25, 2011
Perceptions of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Elite
Views on U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan
Pakistani policy elite perceive America’s Afghanistan strategy to date to be inconsistent and
counterproductive, not only for Pakistan’s interests, but also for durable peace in Afghanistan.
Numerous aspects of U.S. policy were identified as problematic. The most scathing criticism is
targeted at the political component of the strategy, which is largely seen to be subservient to the
military surge. Pakistani opinion makers sense a civil-military disconnect; the civilian administration is perceived to favor political reconciliation while the Pentagon still prioritizes the need for
greater military gains. Not many are optimistic about the prospects of the military surge. While
there is recognition that military operations over the past year have degraded the Taliban’s capacity, virtually no one is convinced that this can put an end to the insurgency or that it can force the
main Taliban factions to negotiate on America’s terms.
Pakistani prognosis for a successful end game is bleak also because of the belief that the U.S.
would want to retain some long-term security presence in Afghanistan1 and that this will likely
create unease among the Afghan Taliban and countries in the region, including Pakistan. As the
Pakistani opinion makers see it, a post-2014 U.S. security presence would, at the very least, entail retaining military bases and using them for counterterrorism missions against al-Qaida and other high
value targets in Afghanistan and Pakistan. This is a scenario that worried most project participants.
In terms of Pakistan’s role in the end game, there is very little faith in U.S. intentions. Pakistani
elite believe that the U.S. would continue to push the Pakistan military to “do more” to stamp out
militant sanctuaries while it tries to open up direct channels for talks with the Taliban—with an eye
on reducing reliance on Pakistan’s security establishment in the political reconciliation process.2
Pakistan’s Afghanistan Policy: Reacting to the U.S.
Pakistani policy faces a dilemma vis-à-vis the U.S. On the one hand, U.S. military operations in
Afghanistan are believed to be causing an internal backlash in terms of militancy and deepening
the state-society rift within Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistani policy elite appreciate that a
premature U.S. troop withdrawal would lead to added instability in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has tried to balance these two competing aspects by providing significant counterterrorism and strategic support to the U.S. while also refusing to target the Afghan Taliban and
other Pakistan-based groups operating in Afghanistan. This strategy has proven costly in terms
of Pakistan’s militant backlash. From Islamabad’s perspective, the longer U.S. military operations
continue without a clear path for political negotiations, the tougher it gets for Pakistan to manage its internal security balancing act. Islamabad therefore insists on an immediate, yet patient
effort at inclusive reconciliation.
Pakistani policy elite believe that a genuine intra-Afghan dialogue will inevitably allow a
significant share of power to the Pushtuns and thus produce a dispensation in Kabul that is sensitive to Pakistani interests. Based on their perceptions about the current realities on the ground
in Afghanistan, Pakistani opinion makers deem any efforts to alienate the Pushtuns in general,
and the main Afghan Taliban factions in particular, to be short-sighted. Notably, even as experts
acknowledge that at present the Afghan Taliban may be the friendliest option for Pakistan (thus
Pakistani support for their inclusion in a dialogue and role in any power-sharing arrangement),
they are quick also to admit that this is a result of the state’s myopic approach toward Kabul over
the years. There is a strong feeling of being “stuck” with the Taliban.
Nonetheless, the Taliban’s perceived utility for Pakistan does not translate into a desire for a
return to Taliban rule in Afghanistan. A bid to regain lost glory by Mullah Omar’s Taliban would
© USIP and Jinnah Institute 2011 • All rights reserved.
Pakistan, the United States and the End Game in Afghanistan:
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Perceptions of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Elite
end up creating conditions in Afghanistan which run counter to Pakistani objectives, most notably
stability. It is therefore believed that the Pakistani state is no longer interested in a return to
complete Taliban rule akin to the 1990s.
Other Impediments to Successful End Game Negotiations
The following aspects are seen as additional hurdles in ensuring successful negotiations and a
durable settlement in Afghanistan. They cast further doubt over prospects of the U.S. mission, and
in turn, make the Pakistani state even less keen to conform to Washington’s desires.
Viability of a regional framework: A regional framework which seeks neutrality and non-interference from countries in the neighborhood receives in principle support in Pakistan. However, there
are few, if any, who believe that key countries would remain truly neutral. Pakistani elite are also
unsure of how a regional agreement will be enforced. The expectation of interference by others
will prompt countries to not honor the arrangement in the first place as each seeks “first mover’s
advantage” in establishing its influence in Afghanistan.
Taliban’s willingness to negotiate: The Taliban’s negotiating behavior and their desired role in posttransition Afghanistan remains a question mark. Pakistani policy elite claim a lack of clarity about the
Afghan Taliban’s willingness to participate in a political reconciliation process, or even to communicate
directly with the U.S. beyond a point. Regardless, they predict that reconciliation talks will be a long,
drawn out process with many twists and turns and with no guarantee of success. Notwithstanding,
Pakistani policy elite feel that the longer meaningful talks are delayed, the tougher it will become for
the Pakistani security establishment to persuade the Taliban to come to the negotiating table.
Political and economic situation in Afghanistan: Afghan President Hamid Karzai is increasingly
seen as a liability for America’s strategy. His loss of credibility among Afghan citizens is generating
additional support for the insurgency and forcing Afghan groups opposed to his government
to delay serious negotiations. In this political environment, a major challenge lies in identifying
representatives who could mediate and speak on behalf of different Afghan stakeholders.
Economically, the international community would have to continue substantial monetary support for Afghanistan post-2014 to prevent a collapse of the Afghan economy. A collapse would be
a nightmare for Pakistan because the country would be faced with fresh influx of Afghans seeking
livelihood opportunities and escaping renewed violence.
Future of the Afghan National Security Forces: Pakistani policy elite remain wary of the future role
of the ANSF. Few accept that the forces will be ready to become the principal custodians of Afghan
security by 2014. They perceive the bloated size of the Afghan National Army to be unsustainable
and a threat to Pakistan’s interests. In terms of its ethnic composition, the presence of non-Pushtun
officers in key positions is highlighted to suggest that the makeup is more likely to fuel ethnic
hostility than to maintain peace in the country.
The Post-Osama Bin Laden Calculus
Because conversations with Pakistani foreign policy elite originally predated the May 2, 2011
killing of al-Qaida leader Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan, the project later requested participants
to reflect on the impact of this development on the Afghan calculus for the U.S. and Pakistan
following the development.3
Most respondents believed that bin Laden’s death had no bearing on Pakistan’s strategy in
Afghanistan. As for the U.S., there was a sense that bin Laden’s departure will make it easier to
create a “narrative of victory” against al-Qaida and perhaps, to negotiate directly with Afghan
© USIP and Jinnah Institute 2011 • All rights reserved.
Pakistan, the United States and the End Game in Afghanistan:
Perceptions of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Elite
page 5 • PB 100 • July 25, 2011
About This Brief
The authors of the report, respectively, are the South Asia adviser
at the U.S. Institute of Peace,
consultant author on the project at
the Jinnah Institute, and security
analyst at the Jinnah Institute.
The findings reported in this
brief are based on a project coconvened by the United States
Institute of Peace (USIP) and
Jinnah Institute in Pakistan and
funded by USIP. The project drew
on the expertise of 54 Pakistani
foreign policy elite and senior
politicians. In March 2011, the
policy elite were invited to roundtable discussions, and the politicians were interviewed between
March and May 2011 for perspectives of major political parties. The
findings capture the key perceptions of the policy elite but do not
represent any consensus position.
They do not necessarily reflect the
views of the authors or the
authors’ respective organizations.
This Report is the joint product of
the United States Institute of
Peace and the Jinnah Institute. All
rights in the Report, in all jurisdictions worldwide, are reserved
jointly to the Endowment of the
United States Institute of Peace
and the Jinnah Institute.
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Taliban leaders. A greater emphasis may be laid on distinguishing al-Qaida from the Taliban to
facilitate the process further.4
That said, the growing mutual distrust between Pakistan and the U.S., exposed as it was during
the May 2 raid,5 has raised doubts about the U.S.’ and Pakistan’s ability to collaborate in attaining a
peaceful settlement in Afghanistan. The anticipated increase in pressure on Pakistan to “do more”
is seen as an additional cause for bilateral tensions in the coming months. The state of the bilateral
relationship, it is feared, may end up overshadowing the otherwise considerable overlap on the
issue of reconciliation between the American and Pakistani positions. Some disagree with this
view, arguing that the Obama administration will continue reaching out to elicit Pakistan’s support
in nudging the main Afghan Taliban factions to the negotiating table.
Looking Ahead
It is fair to conclude that the Pakistani view regarding the present situation in Afghanistan and the
prognosis for the impending end game is fairly pessimistic. While there is candid admission that
Pakistan has pursued a course different than what the U.S. wished, American policy itself is seen to
be counterproductive to Pakistani interests.
Looking ahead, project participants felt that greater clarity in U.S. and Pakistani policies is crucial in order to avoid failure in Afghanistan, to convince the Taliban of the validity of a power-sharing agreement,
and to urge Pakistan and other regional actors to stop hedging and offer a more constructive role.
Endnotes
1. Kabul and Washington had already initiated conversations about a bilateral strategic partnership when the roundtable discussions were held. The strategic partnership seeks continued U.S.
access to some military bases in return for a U.S. commitment to continue providing assistance to
the Afghan government.
2. These views predate Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s statement of June 18, 2011confirming
that there have been direct political contacts between the U.S. and the Taliban. Then U.S. Defense
Secretary Robert Gates subsequently confirmed these contacts. Although the contacts were characterized as preliminary, Pakistan’s officialdom expressed its displeasure at being kept out of the
loop by the U.S. See Emma Graham-Harrison and Hamid Shalizi, “U.S. in Peace Talks with Taliban,
Karzai Confirms,” Reuters, June 18, 2011; and “Pakistan Upset at Being Left Out of US-Taliban Peace
Talks,” Press Trust of India, June 27, 2011.
3. Less than half of the roundtable participants responded to our request to reflect on the postbin Laden dynamic and thus these observations are not necessarily representative of the views of
all those who participated in the roundtable discussions held during the project.
4. These views predate the U.N. Security Council’s June 17, 2011 decision to treat al-Qaida and
Afghan Taliban differently with respect to application of U.N. sanctions.
5. The unilateral strike by the U.S. against al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden’s compound in
Abbottabad heightened concerns within Pakistan about a growing U.S. intelligence footprint
within its territory and consequent threats to its national sovereignty. This friction manifested
itself on May 14, 2011, when, in response to the raid, a joint session of both houses of the Pakistani
parliament passed a unanimous resolution to defend Pakistan’s sovereignty, security, and territorial
integrity against U.S. military actions.
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© USIP and Jinnah Institute 2011 • All rights reserved.