Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Insurance: Mathematics and Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ime A stochastic Nash equilibrium portfolio game between two DC pension funds Guohui Guan, Zongxia Liang ∗ Department of Mathematical Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China highlights • Study stochastic Nash equilibrium portfolio game of two DC pension funds. • Derive closed-forms of the Nash equilibrium portfolio strategies. • Give numerical analysis to investigate evolutions of the Nash equilibrium strategies. article info Article history: Received July 2015 Received in revised form June 2016 Accepted 25 June 2016 Available online 1 July 2016 JEL classification: C73 C61 G11 abstract In this paper, we study the stochastic Nash equilibrium portfolio game between two pension funds under inflation risks. The financial market consists of cash, bond and two stocks. It is assumed that the price index is derived through a generalized Fisher equation while the bond is related to the price index to hedge the risk of inflation. Besides, these two pension managers can invest in their familiar stocks. The goal of the pension managers is to maximize the utility of the weighted terminal wealth and relative wealth. Dynamic programming method is employed to derive the Nash equilibrium strategies. In the end, a numerical analysis is presented to reveal the economic behaviors of the two DC pension funds. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. MSC: 91A15 91A30 91B51 91G10 Submission classifications: IB13 IB81 IE11 Keywords: Defined contribution pension plan Stochastic portfolio game Nash equilibrium Inflation risk Dynamic programming method 1. Introduction Pension fund management has attracted more and more attention and becomes a popular subject in recent years. Pension fund ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (G. Guan), [email protected] (Z. Liang). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.06.015 0167-6687/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. can be viewed as a saving vehicle before retirement to ensure retirement income and thus has great importance. Therefore, an efficient pension fund is very important for the individual and society, and there are many works studying the management of pension fund. Usually, there are mainly two kinds of pension fund, classified by how the contribution and benefit are set in the plan. The first one is defined contribution (DC) pension plan, which involves a fixed contribution rate before retirement. However, the benefit is not fixed for DC pension plan but is determined by the investment 238 G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 performance of the pension plan. The second one is the defined benefit (DB) pension plan. In the DB pension plan, the benefit is fixed while the contribution should be adjusted continuously to keep balance. Thus, the sponsors will undertake the risks in the DB pension plan. Recently, in contrast with the DB pension plan, the DC pension plan has attracted more attention and develops more and more fast. In the DC pension plan, the portfolio of the plan before retirement is very important to ensure the benefit after retirement. There are many works investigating the optimal portfolios before retirement to maximize the expectation of utility of terminal wealth. Vigna and Haberman (2001) firstly studied the optimal DC pension plan in a discrete model. In their further work (cf. Haberman and Vigna, 2002), they also paid attention to the risk measures for the DC plan. Boulier et al. (2001) established an efficient continuous financial model for the DC plan with stochastic interest rate. They successfully derived the optimal investment strategies in a portfolio insurance problem for the pension manager. Later, Deelstra et al. (2003) considered a more general financial model and solved the optimization problem by introducing auxiliary processes and martingale method. Since the accumulation phase of a DC pension plan is often very long, about 20–40 years, the risks in the market will influence the pension fund heavily, mainly the risks of inflation and interest rate. Zhang et al. (2007) firstly analyzed the economic behavior of a DC pension manager under inflation. After that, Han and Hung (2012) obtained the optimal allocations of a pension plan with CRRA utility preference under inflation and interest rate risks. Yao et al. (2013) initially solved the mean–variance problem for a pension manager with inflation risk. Dynamic programming method was applied to obtain the efficient frontier in their work. Wu et al. (2015) derived the closed form solutions for the pension manager under inflation risk in a time-inconsistent mean–variance framework. Moreover, the risks of mortality and contribution for a pension manager were introduced in Yao et al. (2014). Besides the risks of the market, some papers also consider the risks of stock for a pension plan. The stock price in the previous papers follows a geometric Brownian motion, which does not characterize the features of stock well. Gao (2009) characterized the stock price by a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. The Legendre transform and dynamic programming method were combined in his work to derive the optimal strategies both before and after retirement. Guan and Liang (2014) established a financial model for DC pension manager under interest rate and volatility risks. The optimization goal in the paper was to maximize the CRRA utility of terminal wealth over an annuity guarantee. Besides, in more work (cf. Guan and Liang, 2015), a thorough research was conducted for the DC pension plan under stochastic interest rate and mean-reverting returns. In most papers, a pension manager is only concerned with the maximization of the expectation of the utility of terminal wealth. However, in the real market, there exists competition between different pension managers. The pension manager is concerned about relative performance and considers the terminal wealth and relative wealth at the same time. Therefore, if the pension manager intends to behave better than the other manager to attract more attention, it is more realistic to take into account the other manager’s economic behavior. Some existing works are concerned with the competition between different managers. The goal of the manager is to maximize the expectation of the utility of weighted terminal wealth and relative wealth. However, there may not exist optimal investment strategies achieving the managers’ goal at the same time, hence they often search the Nash equilibrium strategies for different competitors. Browne (2000) firstly solved the problem of portfolio games for two investors and derived the equilibrium strategies for some specified games. Meanwhile, Bensoussan and Frehse (2000) studied the regularity condition for the existence of Nash strategies in a stochastic games among N players by dynamic programming method. Basak and Makarov (2014) investigated the case of competition between two investors. In their work, the investor was cared about the relative wealth when it was above a level. They beautifully employed the martingale method to derive the Nash equilibrium strategies. Later, they (cf. Basak and Makarov, 2013) explored the relation between competition and asset specialization. The competition between two insurance companies was studied in Bensoussan et al. (2014). In their work, proportional reinsurance could be purchased and one insurance company intended to maximize the utility of the difference between the insurance company and the other one. They also applied the dynamic programming method to derive the Nash equilibrium strategies. Later, Meng et al. (2015) extended the model to the case when the surplus process of the insurer was characterized by a nonlinear (quadratic) risk control process. In this paper, we consider the competition between two DC pension managers. One pension manager will try to have a better performance than the other manager to attract more attention. In the market, since the time of a DC plan is often long, we take into account the influence of inflation risk. The financial market contains cash, bond and two stocks. The bond is related to the price index and can help hedge the risk of inflation. However, since the two managers are willing to invest in their familiar stocks, the stocks the two managers invest in are not the same. The goal of the pension manager is to maximize the utility of his terminal wealth and the relative wealth w.r.t. the other pension manager. So we need to solve two different optimization problems. However, since there hardly exist optimal investment strategies for these two problems at the same time, we search the Nash equilibrium strategies by dynamic programming method, i.e., each manager is assumed to know the equilibrium strategy of the other manager, and no one will change his own strategy. In the end of the paper, we present the numerical analysis to show the evolutions of the Nash strategies and wealths. The rest of this paper is organized as follows: The financial market and the structure of the pension fund are presented in Section 2. In Section 3, we study the competition between two pension managers and derive the Nash equilibrium strategies. Section 4 shows the Nash equilibrium strategies and evolution of the wealths. Section 5 is a conclusion. 2. The financial market and the pension management In this section, let (Ω , F , {Ft }t ∈[0,T ] , P) be a filtered complete probability space. Ft represents the information of the market available before time t. Besides, [0, T ] is a fixed time horizon and the pension managers can adjust their investment strategies continuously within [0, T ]. In what follows, we assume that all the processes are well-defined and adapted to {Ft , t ∈ [0, T ]}. 2.1. The financial market In this paper, we consider the inflation risk for the pension funds, which can help hedge the risk of inflation in the long run of a pension fund. The risks of inflation and the financial market are presented in this section. In fact, there exist many treasury inflation-protected securities in the market to hedge the risk of inflation and we introduce a particular asset named inflationindexed zero coupon bond in our market. Thus, the financial market in our work consists of cash, treasury inflation-protected securities and two stocks. The price of the risk-free (i.e., cash) asset S0 (t ) is the following: dS0 (t ) S0 (t ) = rn (t )dt , S0 (0) = S0 , (2.1) G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 where S0 > 0 is the initial price of cash and rn (t ) denotes the nominal interest rate in the financial market. In order to characterize the inflation risk, we study the generalized Fisher equation here. The Fisher equation stems from Fisher (1930) and can well describe the relationship between the nominal interest rate rn (t ), the real interest rate rr (t ) and the price index I (t ). The price index I (t ) here reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money. The original Fisher equation is a discrete time model and the continuous-time model presented in Kwak and Lim (2014) is: dI (t ) I (t ) = (rn (t ) − rr (t ))dt + σI dWI (t ), where BI (t ) is a standard Brownian motion under a risk-neutral measure m, and the risk of price index is characterized by BI (t ). Similar to Guan and Liang (2014), we present the following extended continuous-time Fisher equation given by (cf. Zhang et al., 2007): 1 E[i(t , t + 1t )|Ft ], rn (t ) − rr (t ) = lim 1t →0 1t i(t , t + 1t ) = I (t + 1t ) − I (t ) , I (t ) (2.2) where E is the expectation under risk neutral measure P and i(t , t + 1t ) is the inflation rate from time t to t + 1t. Denote the market price of risk of WI (t ) by λI . Then, by Girsanov theorem we can obtain the model of the stochastic price index I (t ) w.r.t. original measure P by dI (t ) I (t ) = (rn (t ) − rr (t ))dt + σI [λI dt + dWI (t )], I (0) = I0 . (2.3) Besides, an inflation-indexed zero coupon bond is introduced to hedge the risk of the inflation. An inflation-indexed zero coupon bond P (t , T ) is a contract at time t with final payment of real money $1 at maturity T . Different from the general zero-coupon bond, P (t , T ) delivers I (T ) at maturity T . Therefore, based on the pricing formula of derivatives, the price of P (t , T ) is P (t , T ) = T E exp(− t rn (s)ds)I (T )|Ft . Since the nominal interest rate in our model is deterministic, a simple calculation can show that the explicit form of P (t , T ) is P (t , T ) = I (t ) exp − T rn (s)ds . t Moreover, P (t , T ) also satisfies the following backward stochastic differential equation: dP (t , T ) = r (t )dt + σ [λ dt + dW (t )], n I I I P (t , T ) P (T , T ) = I (T ). (2.4) Assume that there are two pension fund managers in the financial market, indexed by i = 1, 2. Each pension manager can invest in the cash and inflation-indexed zero coupon bond. However, the pension manager i can also allocate money in the third assets: two stocks. The price Si (t ) of the ith stock is as follows: dSi (t ) = rn (t )dt + σSi1 λI dt + dWI (t ) Si (t ) + σSi2 λSi dt + dWSi (t ) , Si (t ) = Si , 239 correlation coefficient between WS1 (t ) and WS2 (t ) is ρ ∈ [−1, 1]. We can see that the stocks the two managers can invest are not the same. This is quite natural: a manager is more willing to invest in his familiar asset. Thus, S1 (t ) and S2 (t ) are not the same and they are related to the correlation coefficient ρ ∈ [−1, 1]. 2.2. The pension management In this subsection, we consider the continuous contribution in the pension fund. The defined contribution pension fund can be viewed as a saving vehicle for retirement. Before retirement, the contributor contributes a continuous wealth into the fund. This increases the wealth of the pension fund. The pension fund managers need to manage the wealth of contribution well in the financial market. Since the risk of inflation exists in the financial market, we assume that the contribution rate of the pension fund i at time t increases with the price index, i.e., ci I (t ), where ci > 0, i = 1, 2. Apart from the contribution rate, the pension managers also participate in the financial market continuously. The pension manager i can invest in S0 (t ), P (t , T ) and Si (t ). Assume that for the pension manager i, i = 1, 2, the proportions of money invested in the cash, inflation-indexed zero coupon bond and stock at time t are denoted by u0i (t ), uPi (t ) and uSi (t ), respectively. Besides, there are no transaction costs or taxes in the market, and short buying is also allowed. Then, the wealth of the pension manager i with investment behavior is as follows: dS0 (t ) dX (t ) = ci I (t )dt + u0i (t )Xi (t ) i S0 ( t ) dSi (t ) dP (t , T ) + uSi (t )Xi (t ) , + uPi (t )Xi (t ) P ( t , T ) Si (t ) Xi (0) = Xi . (2.6) Xi ≥ 0 represents the initial wealth of pension manager i. Substituting (2.1), (2.4), (2.5) into Eq. (2.6), we can obtain the following compact form of the wealth for pension manager i: dXi (t ) = ci I (t )dt + rn (t )Xi (t )dt + uPi (t )Xi (t )σI [λI dt + dWI (t )] + uSi (t )Xi (t )σSi1 [λI dt + dWI (t )] + uSi (t )Xi (t )σSi2 [λSi dt + dWSi (t )], Xi (0) = Xi . (2.7) In Eq. (2.7), the relation 1 = u0i (t ) + uPi (t ) + uSi (t ) is applied. Denote ui (t ) = (uPi (t ), uSi (t ))T . ui (t ) represents investment strategies. We call ui (t ) an admissible strategy if it satisfies the following conditions: (i) uPi (t ) and uSi (t ) are progressively measurable w.r.t. (Ω , F , {Ft }t ∈[0,T ] , P). T (ii) E{ 0 [uPi (t )2 σI2 + uSi (t )2 σS2i1 + uSi (t )2 σS2i2 ]dt } < +∞. (iii) Eq. (2.7) has a unique strong solution for the initial data (t0 , I (0), Xi ) ∈ [0, T ] × (0, +∞) × (0, +∞). Denote the set of all admissible investment strategies ui (t ) by Πi . We search the optimal investment strategies within the admissible strategies. 3. The competition 3.1. The competition between pension managers (2.5) where σSi1 and σSi2 are positive constants and represent the volatilities of the stocks. WSi (t ) is a standard Brownian motion on (Ω , F , {Ft }t ∈[0,T ] , P) and independent of WI (t ). Moreover, λSi represents the market price of risk of WSi (t ). Besides, the In the financial market, the two pension managers intend to maximize the utility of the weighted terminal wealth and related wealth to attract more attention. Denote the real wealth of the X (T ) pension fund i by Yi (T ) = Ii(T ) . Since competition exists, we assume that the pension managers are concerned with their real wealths as well as the ratio between their wealth and the wealth of 240 G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 the other manager. The optimization goal of the pension manager i is as follows: max E[Ui Yi (T )(1−θi ) Ri (T )θi ] (Xi (t ), ui (t )) satisfy Eq. (2.7) subject to ui (t ) ∈ Πi , Xi (T ) ≥ 0, Y (T ) (3.1) Y (T ) where R1 (T ) = Y1 (T ) and R2 (T ) = Y2 (T ) represent the real relative 2 1 wealths of the manager 1 and 2, respectively. θi ∈ [0, 1] is the weight of the manager i’s preference over the competition. If θi is large, the manager i becomes more competitive and is more concerned with the relative wealth towards the other pension manager. When θi = 0, the optimization problem is the classical optimization problem without competition. We assume that the two managers have different preferences over their wealth and relative wealth. The utility function Ui (·) of the pension manager i is defined by Ui (x) = x1−γi 1 − γi , γi > 0 and γ ̸= 1. where σI 0 , Σi = σSi1 σSi2 WI (t ) . Wi (t ) = WSi (t ) Dynamic programming method is applied to solve the competition problem. For pension manager 1, set V (t , y1 , y2 ) = max E U1 Y1 (T )Y2 (T )−θ1 |Y1 (t ) = y1 , Y2 (t ) = y2 . u1 (·) V (t , y1 , y2 ) represents the optimal expectation of utility of pension manager 1 given the states of financial market at time t and the investment strategy u2 (t ) of pension manager 2 within [0, T ]. Using the standard stochastic dynamic programming method, we can obtain the associated HJB equation for pension manager 1. The following result presents the HJB equation. The associated HJB equation for pension manager 1 is as follows: uT1 Σ1 Λ1 ] sup Vt + Vy1 [c1 + rr (t )y1 + y1 Ui (x) is the standard CRRA utility function. u1 (·)∈ 1 1 3.2. The Nash equilibrium strategies + Vy1 y1 y21 uT1 Σ1 Σ1T u1 + Vy2 [c2 + rr (t )y2 + y2 uT2 Σ2 Λ2 ] As is stated above, the two pension managers need to achieve their own optimization goal. However, the goal in their optimization problems involves the wealth of the other pension manager. The two pension managers have different optimization goals and the optimization problem of one manager is very closely related to the other one’s strategy. Therefore, there do not exist optimal strategies satisfying these two pension managers’ goals at the same time and we introduce the notion of Nash equilibrium strategies here. Nash equilibrium states that if the two pension managers adopt some strategies, one’s utility will not be improved if the other one keeps his strategy. Then the two pension managers’ strategies constitute Nash equilibrium. The mathematical explanation of Nash equilibrium is as follows: Definition 3.1. The pair (u∗1 (t ), u∗2 (t )), t ∈ [0, T ] is called Nash equilibrium strategy if manager 1’s optimal strategy is u∗1 (t ) after manager 2 adopts the strategy u∗2 (t ) and vice versa, i.e., u∗1 (t ) and u∗2 (t ) solve the following problems, respectively: 2 1 uT2 Σ2 Σ2T u2 + Vy2 y2 y22 2 1 0 + Vy1 y2 y1 y2 uT1 Σ1 Σ2T u2 = 0. 0 ρ Proposition 3.1. The optimal feedback strategy u∗1 (t ) of pension manager 1 when pension manager 2 adopts strategy u2 (t ) is: u∗1 (t ) = 1 Y1∗ (t ) + D1 (t ) γ1 Y1∗ (t ) (Σ1−1 )T Λ1 θ1 (1 − γ1 ) Y1∗ (t ) + D1 (t ) Y2 (t ) (Σ −1 )T γ1 Y1∗ (t ) Y2 (t ) + D2 (t ) 1 1 0 × Σ2T u2 (t ). 0 ρ − max E[U2 Y2 (T )Y1∗ (T )−θ2 ], (3.3) The derivation for the HJB equation for manager 2 is similar. We only need to exchange subscripts 1 and 2 in Eq. (3.3). From Eq. (3.3), the optimal investment strategy of pension manager 1 given the investment behavior of pension manager 2 can be obtained. We have the following proposition. max E[U1 Y1 (T )Y2∗ (T )−θ1 ], λI − σI , Λi = λSi (3.4) where Y1∗ (T ) and Y2∗ (T ) are the real wealths of the pension manager 1 and 2 w.r.t. strategy u∗1 (t ) and u∗2 (t ), respectively. Similarly, the optimal feedback strategy u∗2 (t ) of pension manager 2 when pension manager 1 adopts strategy u1 (t ) is: In order to derive the Nash equilibrium strategy, we need to obtain the compact form of the differential of Yi (t ). Applying Ito’s formula to Eqs. (2.3) and (2.7), the differential of Yi (t ) is as follows: u∗2 (t ) = dYi (t ) = ci dt + rr (t )Yi (t )dt + [uPi (t ) − 1]Yi (t )σI × [(λI − σI )dt + dWI (t )] + uSi (t )Yi (t )σSi1 [(λI − σI )dt + dWI (t )] + uSi (t )Yi (t )σSi2 [λSi dt + dWSi (t )]. Let γ2 Y2∗ (t ) i. Rewrite the differ- dYi (t ) = ci dt + rr (t )Yi (t )dt + Yi (t ) ui (t )T Σi Λi dt + dWi (t ) , (3.2) (Σ2−1 )T Λ2 θ2 (1 − γ2 ) Y2∗ (t ) + D2 (t ) Y1 (t ) (Σ −1 )T ∗ γ2 Y2 (t ) Y1 (t ) + D1 (t ) 2 1 0 × Σ1T u1 (t ) 0 ρ T s where Di (t ) = ci t exp(− t rr (u)du)ds, i = 1, 2. − Proof. See Appendix. ui (t ) = ui (t ) − (1, 0)T . We call ui (·) a admissible strategy if ui (·) ∈ ential of Yi (t ) in a more compact form: 1 Y2∗ (t ) + D2 (t ) (3.5) We can see from Proposition 3.1 that one’s optimal strategy given the other one’s strategy is composed of two parts. The first part is the case where θi = 0, i.e., one pension manager’s optimization goal is not related to the other one’s behavior. The optimization problem is a pure problem maximizing the expectation of G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 241 terminal utility. Thus, in the case θi = 0, Proposition 3.1 also presents the optimal strategy of a pension manager with CRRA utility preference under inflation risk. The second part in Eqs. (3.4) and (3.5) is related to the other pension manager’s wealth and strategies. Thus, the second part shows the effect of competition on the investment strategies. By Proposition 3.1, we can derive the Nash equilibrium strategies for the pension managers 1 and 2. Proposition 3.2. The Nash equilibrium pair ( u∗1 (t ), u∗2 (t )) for these two pension managers is as follows: u∗1 (t ) = 1 Y1∗ (t ) + D1 (t ) γ1 Y1∗ (t ) Ξ1−1 (Σ1−1 )T Λ1 θ1 (1 − γ1 ) Y1∗ (t ) + D1 (t ) −1 −1 T Ξ1 (Σ1 ) ΦΛ2 , γ1 γ2 Y1∗ (t ) 1 Y2∗ (t ) + D2 (t ) −1 −1 T u∗2 (t ) = Ξ2 (Σ2 ) Λ2 γ2 Y2∗ (t ) θ2 (1 − γ2 ) Y2∗ (t ) + D2 (t ) −1 −1 T − Ξ2 (Σ2 ) ΦΛ1 , γ1 γ2 Y2∗ (t ) − (3.6) Fig. 1. Nash equilibrium strategies for investor 1. where Ξi Φ θ1 θ2 (1 − γ1 )(1 − γ2 ) −1 T 1 (Σi ) =I− 0 γ1 γ2 1 0 = . 0 ρ 0 ρ2 ΣiT , (3.7) Proof. Eqs. (3.4) and (3.5) show the relation between the two pension fund managers. Combining them, we can obtain the Nash equilibrium strategies directly. Since we only obtain the Nash equilibrium strategies for u∗i (t ), we present the following proposition for the original strategies. We can see that the Nash equilibrium strategies u∗i (t ) is proportional to Yi∗ (t )+Di (t ) . Y ∗ (t ) i Especially when there is no contribution, i.e., ci = 0, we have Di (t ) = 0. In this case, the original problem is a classical self-financing optimization problem and the optimal strategies are all deterministic. Proposition 3.3. The Nash equilibrium pair (u∗1 (t ), u∗2 (t )) for these two pension managers are: u∗1 (t ) u∗2 (t ) = u∗1 (t ) + (1, 0)T , = u∗2 (t ) + (1, 0)T , (3.8) where u∗1 (t ) and u∗2 (t ) are calculated by Eq. (3.6). 4. Sensitivity analysis In this section, we use the Monte Carlo Methods (MCM) to study the evolutions of the Nash equilibrium strategies for manager 1 and manager 2. Unless otherwise stated, the parameters we adopt are as follows: θ1 = 0.5, θ2 = 0.5, ρ = 0.5, γ1 = 2, γ2 = 2, rn = 0.1, rr = 0.045, λI = 0.2, λS1 = 0.2, λS2 = 0.2, σI = 0.1, σS11 = 0.06, σS12 = 0.2, σS21 = 0.05, σS22 = 0.08, c1 = 1, c2 = 2, I0 = 1, T = 20. 4.1. Nash equilibrium strategies Firstly, we present the Nash equilibrium strategies of manager 1 and manager 2. In Figs. 1–5, we simulate 10 000 tracks of the optimal strategies and calculate the mean of the 10 000 tracks. Figs. 1–4 show the mean of optimal strategies while Fig. 5 illustrates the mean of optimal wealth with respect to time. Fig. 2. Nash equilibrium strategies for investor 2. Fig. 1 reveals the evolution of the Nash equilibrium strategies for pension manager 1. The manager 1 firstly holds a short position in the cash, then short less proportion of money in cash rapidly during the accumulation phase. The mean proportion of money in cash increases from −8 to about −1 at terminal time. However, the manager always holds a long position in the bond and stock. The proportions invested in the bond and stock all have a declining tendency. The manager invests most in stock, about 6. The proportion in stock decreases to be less than the proportion in the bond at time 2. At terminal time, the manager invests about 1 in the stock and bond. The Nash equilibrium strategies of pension manager 2 are illustrated in Fig. 2. As is indicated by Fig. 2, the pension manager 2 invests heavily in the stock, which is 20 at initial time. The evolution of proportion in cash is similar with the case of investor 1, increasing from −18 to about −2. However, manager 2 maintains the proportion in the bond at zero all the time. Pension fund manager 1 is different from manager 2 in two aspects: the contribution rate and the volatilities of the stock. Manager 1 is faced with lower contribution rate and higher volatilities. Thus, in contrast to manager 2, manager 1 will allocates fewer in the stock and more in the bond to achieve the optimal utility. We are also concerned about the influence of θ1 and θ2 on the nash equilibrium strategies. The cases when θ1 = θ2 = 0 and θ1 = θ2 = 1 are illustrated in Figs. 3 and 4. When θ1 = θ2 = 0, the nash equilibrium strategies coincide with the case of no competition. 242 G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 Fig. 5. Evolution of mean wealth. Fig. 3. θ1 = θ2 = 0. Fig. 6. Evolution of mean wealth. Fig. 4. θ1 = θ2 = 1. As is showed in Fig. 3, the monotonicity of proportions invested in the three assets is the same as Fig. 1. Nevertheless, compared with Fig. 1, manager 1 invests less in the risk assets, i.e., [0.8, 5] in stock and [−0.8, −6] in cash. Fig. 4 illustrates the case when the pension managers are extremely competitive. In this situation, proportion in stock varies from 6 to 0.8 while proportion in bond varies from 6 to 2 at terminal time. Besides, manager 1 short largely in the cash. Combining Figs. 1, 3 and 4, we can observe that when θ1 , θ2 increase, the pension managers become competitive. Therefore, in order to behave better than the other, they will adopt more risky investment strategies. 4.2. Evolution of optimal wealth This subsection investigates the evolutions of the optimal wealths of the two managers. The mean wealths of manager 1 and manager 2 are illustrated in Fig. 5. Particular paths of the wealth of manager 1 and manager 2 are showed in Fig. 6. The mean wealth of the pension manager 1 increases from 1 to about 60 at terminal time. However, since the pension manager 2 has larger contribution rate, the mean wealth of the manager 2 increases faster, which is only 1 at initial time and about 120 at terminal time. This shows that although the two managers intend to act better than the other, the manager with more contribution can achieve larger expectation of terminal wealth. Fig. 6 shows the paths of the wealths of the manager 1 and manager 2. We can see that the evolutions of the two managers’ wealths are similar. However, the wealth of the manager 2 fluctuates more heavily since the manager 2 allocates more in the risky assets. 5. Conclusion In this paper, we consider competition for two pension fund managers. Besides the terminal real wealth, the pension manager is also cared about the relative wealth, that is, the wealth divided by the other manager’s wealth. Thus, the goal of the pension manager is to maximize the expectation of the CRRA utility of the product of the real terminal wealth and relative wealth. In this paper, the inflation risk is also taken into account. In the case of competition, dynamic programming method is applied to derive the Nash equilibrium strategies. The results show that the equilibrium strategies for one manager is related to the parameters of the other manager. Acknowledgments The authors gratefully thank the anonymous referees for their many valuable suggestions, which made our paper more interest- G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 ing and accurate. The authors thank the members of the group of Stochastic Analysis, Insurance Mathematics, Insurance Economics and Mathematical Finance at the Department of Mathematical Sciences, Tsinghua University for their feedback and useful conversations. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11471183). Substituting u∗1 (t ) and the differentials of V into the HJB equation (3.3), we have (1 − θ1 )rr (t ) + − θ1 f ′ (t ) (1 − γ1 )f (t ) y2 y2 + D2 (t ) 1 θ1 [1 − γ1 ] y2 − Proof. We prove Proposition 3.1 based on the HJB equation (3.3). We solve HJB equation (3.3) in the following steps. By the boundary condition + θ1 [θ1 (1 − γ1 ) + 1] V (T , y1 , y2 ) = 1 − γ1 + , we conjecture that the optimal utility function for investor 1 is as follows: V (t , y1 , y2 ) = (A.1) where Di (t ) = ci T s exp − rr (u)du ds, t (1 − γ1 )[−c1 + rr (t )D1 (t )] V y1 + D1 (t ) θ1 (1 − γ1 )[−c2 + rr (t )D2 (t )] − V y2 + D2 (t ) (y1 + D1 (t ))1−γ1 (y2 + D2 (t ))−θ1 (1−γ1 ) ′ + f (t ), 1 − γ1 y1 + D1 (t ) Vy1 y1 = −γ1 (1 − γ1 ) , Vy2 = −θ1 (1 − γ1 ) V (y1 + D1 (t ))2 Vy1 y2 = −θ1 (1 − γ1 ) Vy 1 y1 Vy1 y1 − y2 Vy1 y2 y1 Vy1 y1 V (y2 + D2 (t )) (y1 + D1 (t ))(y2 + D2 (t )) y1 1 2γ1 θ12 [1 − γ1 ]2 y22 (y2 + D2 (t ))2 uT2 Σ2 Σ2T u2 uT2 Σ2 Φ 2 Σ2T u2 = 0. (A.4) Since we require that f (t ) is deterministic and not related with y1 , y2 , we can observe from Eq. (A.4) that the condition that u2 is y +D (t ) proportional to 2 y 2 is needed. The explicit form of f (t ) can be derived by integrating w.r.t. t in Eq. (A.4) with the boundary condition f (T ) = 1. Combining Eqs. (3.4) and (3.5), we can show that the Nash equilibrium strategies u∗1 (t ) and u∗2 (t ) are indeed proportional y +D (t ) and 2 y 2 , respectively. Therefore, substituting the to 1 y 1 1 2 Nash equilibrium u∗2 (t ) into Eq. (A.4), we can obtain an ordinary differential equation satisfied by f (t ), from which we get the expression of f (t ): T (1 − θ1 )rr (s) + 1 γ1 1 2γ1 ΛT1 Λ1 (s) θ1 [1 − γ1 ]ΛT1 (s)ΦΣ2T (s)G(s) V y2 + D2 (t ) + θ1 [θ1 (1 − γ1 ) + 1](G(s))T Σ2 (s)Σ2T (s)G(s) 2 1 2 2 T 2 T θ1 [1 − γ1 ] (G(s)) Σ2 (s)Φ Σ2 (s)G(s) ds , + 2γ1 , G(t ) = , 2 . 1 γ2 − Ξ2−1 (t )(Σ2−1 )T (t )Λ2 (t ) θ2 (1 − γ2 ) −1 Ξ2 (t )(Σ2−1 )T (t )ΦΛ1 (t ). γ1 γ2 Thus, the closed form of V (t , y1 , y2 ) can be derived by (A.1). By the similar technique, we can derive the Nash equilibrium utility function for investor 2. (Σ1−1 )T Λ1 References ( Σ1 ) −1 T 1 y1 + D1 (t ) γ1 (y2 + D2 (t ))2 1 1 0 0 ρ (t ). Σ2T u2 (A.2) Substituting the differentials of V (t , y1 , y2 ) into the last equation, we can obtain the optimal feedback control for pension manager 1 as follows: u∗1 (t ) = 2 − θ1 (G(s))T Σ2 Λ2 (s) − Using the first order condition of the HJB equation (3.3), the relationship between u∗1 (t ) and V (t , y1 , y2 ) is u∗1 (t ) = − y22 where V 2 ΛT1 ΦΣ2T u2 t , Vy2 y2 = θ1 (1 − γ1 )[1 + θ1 (1 − γ1 )] y2 + D2 (t ) f (t ) = exp (1 − γ1 ) Vt = V ΛT1 Λ1 1 y +D (t ) i = 1, 2. t Differentiating V (t , y1 , y2 ), we can obtain the following expressions: Vy1 = (1 − γ1 ) 1 2γ1 2 (y1 + D1 (t ))1−γ1 (y2 + D2 (t ))−θ1 (1−γ1 ) f (t ), 1 − γ1 γ1 + uT2 Σ2 Λ2 Appendix. Proof of Proposition 3.1 1−γ −θ (1−γ1 ) y1 1 y2 1 243 (Σ1−1 )T Λ1 θ1 (1 − γ1 ) y1 + D1 (t ) y2 (Σ −1 )T γ1 y1 y2 + D2 (t ) 1 1 0 × Σ2T u2 (t ). 0 ρ − Thus, Eq. (3.4) follows. Similarly, Eq. (3.5) also holds. (A.3) Basak, S., Makarov, D., 2013. Competition among portfolio managers and asset specialization. Paris December 2014 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI-AFFI Paper. Basak, S., Makarov, D., 2014. Strategic asset allocation in money management. J. Finance 69 (1), 179–217. Bensoussan, A., Frehse, J., 2000. Stochastic games for N players. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 105 (3), 543–565. Bensoussan, A., Siu, C.C., Yam, S.C.P., Yang, H., 2014. A class of non-zero-sum stochastic differential investment and reinsurance games. Automatica 50 (8), 2025–2037. Boulier, J.F., Huang, S.J., Taillard, G., 2001. Optimal management under stochastic interest rates: the case of a protected defined contribution pension fund. Insurance Math. Econom. 28, 173–189. Browne, S., 2000. Stochastic differential portfolio games. J. Appl. Probab. 37 (1), 126–147. Deelstra, G., Grasselli, M., Koehl, P.F., 2003. Optimal investment strategies in the presence of a minimum guarantee. Insurance Math. Econom. 33, 189–207. Fisher, I., 1930. The Theory of Interest. Macmillan, New York. 244 G. Guan, Z. Liang / Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 70 (2016) 237–244 Gao, J.W., 2009. Optimal investment strategy for annuity contracts under the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model. Insurance Math. Econom. 45, 9–18. Guan, G.H., Liang, Z.X., 2014. Optimal management of DC pension plan in a stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility framework. Insurance Math. Econom. 57, 58–66. Guan, G.H., Liang, Z.X., 2015. Mean–variance efficiency of DC pension plan under stochastic interest rate and mean-reverting returns. Insurance Math. Econom. 61, 99–109. Haberman, S., Vigna, E., 2002. Optimal investment strategies and risk measures in defined contribution pension schemes. Insurance Math. Econom. 31, 35–69. Han, N.W., Hung, M.W., 2012. Optimal asset allocation for DC pension plans under inflation. Insurance Math. Econom. 51, 172–181. Kwak, M., Lim, B.H., 2014. Optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk. J. Bank. Finance 46 (1), 59–71. Meng, H., Li, S.M., Jin, Z., 2015. A reinsurance game between two insurance companies with nonlinear risk processes. Insurance Math. Econom. 62, 91–97. Wu, H.L., Zhang, L., Chen, H., 2015. Nash equilibrium strategies for a defined contribution pension management. Insurance Math. Econom. 62, 202–214. Vigna, E., Haberman, S., 2001. Optimal investment strategy for defined contribution pension schemes. Insurance Math. Econom. 28, 233–262. Yao, H.X., Lai, Y.Z., Ma, Q.H., Jian, M.J., 2014. Asset allocation for a DC pension fund with stochastic income and mortality risk: A multi-period mean–variance framework. Insurance Math. Econom. 54, 84–92. Yao, H.X., Yang, Z., Chen, P., 2013. Markowitz’s mean–variance defined contribution pension fund management under inflation: A continuous-time model. Insurance Math. Econom. 53, 851–863. Zhang, A.H., Korn, R., Ewald, C.O., 2007. Optimal management and inflation protection for defined contribution pension plans. Bl. DGVFM 28, 239–258.
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz