Post results note
Volvo
22 July 2009
Sweden/Industrial Engineering
Investment Research
Don’t rule out a recovery, but beware of the balance sheet
Hold
vs Reduce
52.25
Share price: SEK
clo sing price as o f 21/07/2009
Target price: SEK
50.00
45.00
vs Target Price: SEK
Reuters/Bloomberg
We upgrade VOLV to Hold and hike our 12-month target price to SEK50
(SEK45), as we believe the case is balanced between short-term debt concerns
and a medium-term profit recovery that could be underestimated by the
market.
9
At first glance Volvo’s Q2 looked very weak, even adjusting for larger-thanexpected XO-costs. However, the deviation from expectations is mainly explained
by better-than-expected inventory reduction, which created substantial under
absorption of fixed costs in the quarter.
9
In a sense, Volvo executed its cash flow management almost too well, but we
think that this is the right focus, as it could help the company avoid a share issue
(although we think it is still far from certain it can), and should provide the
foundation for a sharp upturn in margins once sales recover.
9
Better-than-expected cost control by Volvo management leads us to hike our
margin expectations for 2010. More importantly, Q2 order and delivery data make
us feel increasingly confident that the worst is behind us in terms of demand. We
now think heavy truck deliveries should grow 36% y/y in 2010 and a further 15%
in 2011. This may sound dramatic, but it would actually bring volumes in 2010
back to around the 2004 level (180,000 units), despite the inclusion of some 3050,000 units from Nissan in the period between. Sales in 2010 could be around
30% higher than 2004, driven by FX and price, but the profit level is likely to be
similar as labour costs are now almost back on par.
9
Our new 2010 EBIT estimate is almost 100% higher than the market (SME, preQ2 estimates) and we believe that some may have gravely underestimated the
company’s leverage potential, both in terms of demand and profitability, once the
market recovery takes hold. Our new 2011 EBIT estimate is 20% higher than
consensus.
9
Despite a more bullish view than the market on 2010 earnings, we are reluctant to
buy the stock just yet. The balance sheet has been under strain for several
quarters and the Q2 report added further pressure. A share issue of SEK6-8bn
cannot yet be ruled out, which may make the share look pricey in the short term.
However, with the company now potentially achieving an EPS of SEK3.5 already
next year, 15x – which is close to trough earnings – can hardly be regarded as
demanding in the medium term. Hence we upgrade our 12-month VOLV price
target to SEK50 and lift our rating to Hold.
VOLVb.ST/VOLVB SS
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)
Price high 12 mth (SEK)
Price low 12 mth (SEK)
Abs. perf. 1 mth
Abs. perf. 3 mth
Abs. perf. 12 mth
11,610,288
573.53
81.50
30.00
8.2%
5.8%
-32.4%
1.5
Market capitalisation (SEKm)
Current N° of shares (m)
Free float
Key financials (SEK)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT margin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/(cash) (m)
Net Debt Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
105,859
2,026
78%
12/08
303,667
29,472
9.7%
15,852
5.2%
9,942
6.0%
124,561
1.5
4.2
16.0
0.8
8.3
8.3
15.4
8.7
1.0
2.8%
3.8%
4.91
41.44
2.00
12/09e
217,894
(3,440)
nm
(14,610)
nm
(12,756)
-6.8%
107,048
1.6
-31.1
(1.1)
1.1
nm
nm
nm
nm
1.6
33.9%
3.8%
(6.30)
33.14
2.00
12/10e
273,199
27,714
10.1%
12,672
4.6%
7,139
5.5%
112,285
1.6
4.1
10.9
0.9
9.1
9.1
19.9
14.8
1.5
13.4%
3.8%
3.52
34.66
2.00
Estimate changes
90
vv ds vdv sdy
80
2009E
6.6
4.2
11.3
Sales
EBIT
EPS
70
60
50
2010E
18.7
73.7
136.5
2011E
13.3
13.3
26.8
Source: DME
40
30
20
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
VOLVO
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
M ar 09
Apr 09
M ay 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
DJ Sto xx Industrial Engineering (Rebased)
Analyst(s): Carl Holmquist
Jan Bjerkeheim
Source: Factset
Shareholders: Renault 21%; Capital Group 5%;
Industrivärden 3%;
+46 8 568 805 42
[email protected]
+46 8 568 805 69
[email protected]
Anders Idborg
+46 8 568 805 70
[email protected]
Carl Gustafsson
+46 8 568 805 23
[email protected]
For company description please see summary table footnote
Produced by Danske Markets Equities, a member of ESN
Distributed by the members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
All ESN research is available
on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go>
Volvo
Volvo: Summary tables
PROFIT & LOSS (SEKm )
Sales
Cost of Sales & Operating Costs (excl. Pers. Expenses)
Personnel Expenses
Non Recurrent Expenses/Income
EBITDA
EBITDA (adj.)*
D&A
EBIT
EBIT (adj.)*
Net Financial Interest
Other Financials
Associates
Other Non Recurrent Items
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)
Tax
Tax rate
Discontinued Operations
Minorities
Net Profit (reported)
Net Profit (adj.)
2006
258,836
2007
285,327
2008
303,667
2009e
217,894
2010e
273,199
2011e
286,859
0.0
32,798
32,798
-12,400
20,398
20,398
80.0
-181
0.0
0.0
20,297
-3,981
19.6%
0.0
-50.0
16,266
16,266
0.0
34,631
34,631
-12,400
22,231
22,231
-170
-504
0.0
0.0
21,557
-6,528
30.3%
0.0
-96.0
14,933
14,933
0.0
29,472
29,472
-13,620
15,852
15,852
-1,842
0.0
0.0
0.0
14,010
-3,994
28.5%
0.0
-74.0
9,942
9,942
0.0
-3,440
-3,440
-11,170
-14,610
-14,610
-3,228
0.0
0.0
0.0
-17,838
5,125
28.7%
0.0
-43.3
-12,756
-12,756
0.0
27,714
27,714
-15,042
12,672
12,672
-2,541
0.0
0.0
0.0
10,131
-2,938
29.0%
0.0
-54.3
7,139
7,139
0.0
30,296
30,296
-15,024
15,272
15,272
-1,948
0.0
0.0
0.0
13,324
-3,864
29.0%
0.0
-54.3
9,406
9,406
CASH FLOW (SEKm )
Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC
Change in Net Working Capital
Cash Flow from Operations
Capex
Net Financial Investments
Free Cash Flow
Dividends
Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs)
Change in Net Debt
NOPLAT
2006
29,617
365
29,982
-12,319
0.0
17,663
-6,787
-2,656
8,220
16,397
2007
28,664
-5,952
22,712
-53,399
0.0
-30,687
-20,260
4,848
-46,099
15,499
2008
21,125
-18,699
2,426
-45,321
0.0
-42,895
-11,100
6,453
-47,542
11,333
2009e
-1,543
37,448
35,905
-14,295
0.0
21,611
-4,054
-43.3
17,513
-10,412
2010e
22,235
-8,036
14,199
-15,328
0.0
-1,129
-4,054
-54.3
-5,237
8,997
2011e
24,484
-1,985
22,499
-15,874
0.0
6,625
-4,052
-54.3
2,519
10,843
BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (SEKm )
Net Tangible Assets
Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodw ill)
Net Financial Assets & Other
Total Fixed Assets
Net Working Capital
Shareholders Equity
Minorities Equity
Net Debt
Provisions
Other Net Liabilities or Assets
Net Capital Em ployed/Invested
2006
53,770
19,117
51,152
124,039
37,218
86,904
284
35,857
25,241
12,971
161,257
2007
68,556
36,508
57,423
162,487
43,170
82,202
579
77,285
27,731
17,860
205,657
2008
82,699
43,958
69,662
196,319
61,869
83,948
630
124,561
32,521
16,528
258,188
2009e
85,758
44,024
69,662
199,444
24,421
67,138
630
107,048
32,521
16,528
223,865
2010e
86,333
43,735
69,662
199,730
32,457
70,223
630
112,285
32,521
16,528
232,187
2011e
87,338
43,580
69,662
200,580
34,441
75,576
630
109,766
32,521
16,528
235,021
GROWTH & MARGINS
Sales growth
EBITDA growth
EBITDA (adj.)* growth
EBIT growth
EBIT (adj)*growth
Net Profit growth
EPS adj. growth
DPS adj. growth
EBITDA margin
EBITDA (adj)* margin
EBIT margin
EBIT (adj)* margin
2006
7.6%
16.9%
16.9%
12.4%
12.4%
24.6%
24.6%
198.5%
12.7%
12.7%
7.9%
7.9%
2007
10.2%
5.6%
5.6%
9.0%
9.0%
-8.2%
-8.2%
-45.2%
12.1%
12.1%
7.8%
7.8%
2008
6.4%
-14.9%
-14.9%
-28.7%
-28.7%
-33.4%
-33.4%
-63.5%
9.7%
9.7%
5.2%
5.2%
2009e
-28.2%
-chg
-chg
-chg
-chg
-chg
-chg
0.0%
nm
nm
nm
nm
2010e
25.4%
+chg
+chg
+chg
+chg
+chg
+chg
0.0%
10.1%
10.1%
4.6%
4.6%
2011e
5.0%
9.3%
9.3%
20.5%
20.5%
31.8%
31.8%
0.0%
10.6%
10.6%
5.3%
5.3%
Page 2
Volvo
Volvo: Summary tables
RATIOS
Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)
Capex/D&A
Capex/Sales
NWC/Sales
ROE (average)
ROCE (adj.)
WACC
ROCE (adj.)/WACC
PER SHARE DATA (SEK)
EPS (reported)
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
VALUATION
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)*
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT (adj.)*
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
Total Yield Ratio
EV/CE
OpFCF yield
OpFCF/EV
Payout ratio
Dividend yield (gross)
2006
0.4
1.1
nm
99.3%
4.8%
14.4%
19.7%
14.9%
9.2%
1.6
2007
0.9
2.2
nm
430.6%
18.7%
15.1%
17.7%
10.5%
9.2%
1.1
2008
1.5
4.2
16.0
332.8%
14.9%
20.4%
12.0%
6.0%
9.2%
0.7
2009e
1.6
-31.1
nm
128.0%
6.6%
11.2%
-16.9%
-6.8%
9.2%
-0.7
2010e
1.6
4.1
10.9
101.9%
5.6%
11.9%
10.4%
5.5%
9.2%
0.6
2011e
1.4
3.6
15.6
105.7%
5.5%
12.0%
12.9%
6.6%
9.2%
0.7
2006
8.03
8.03
42.89
10.00
2007
7.37
7.37
40.57
5.48
2008
4.91
4.91
41.44
2.00
2009e
-6.30
-6.30
33.14
2.00
2010e
3.52
3.52
34.66
2.00
2011e
4.64
4.64
37.30
2.00
2006
0.9
7.5
7.5
12.0
12.0
11.3
2.1
11.0%
2.2
16.3%
12.2%
124.6%
11.0%
2007
1.1
9.4
9.4
14.7
14.7
14.7
2.7
5.0%
2.2
10.3%
7.0%
74.3%
5.0%
2008
0.8
8.3
8.3
15.4
15.4
8.7
1.0
3.8%
1.3
2.8%
1.0%
40.8%
3.8%
2009e
1.1
nm
nm
nm
nm
nm
1.6
3.8%
1.6
33.9%
14.6%
-31.8%
3.8%
2010e
0.9
9.1
9.1
19.9
19.9
14.8
1.5
3.8%
1.5
13.4%
5.6%
56.8%
3.8%
2011e
0.9
8.2
8.2
16.3
16.3
11.3
1.4
3.8%
1.5
21.3%
9.0%
43.1%
3.8%
2007
109
2,026
219,821
77,285
31,034
44,872
63,447
29,279
326,385
2008
42.9
2,026
86,915
124,561
23,614
62,631
85,544
33,072
244,549
2009e
52.3
2,026
105,859
107,048
36,523
44,872
98,699
33,548
246,454
2010e
52.3
2,026
105,859
112,285
36,162
44,872
103,575
33,503
251,646
2011e
52.3
2,026
105,859
109,766
38,740
44,872
103,634
33,433
249,057
EV AND MKT CAP (SEKm )
2006
Price** (SEK)
90.8
Outstanding number of shares for main stock
2,026
Total Market Cap
183,891
Net Debt
35,857
o/w Cash & Marketable Securities
31,099
o/w Short Term Debt
28,247
o/w Long Term Debt
38,709
Other EV com ponents
25,842
Enterprise Value (EV adj.)
245,590
Source: Com pany, Danske Markets Equities estim ates.
Notes
* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBIT (adj.)= EBITDA (or EBIT) +/- Non Recurrent Expenses/Income
**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Com pany Description:
The Volvo Group is one of the leading suppliers of commercial transport solutions providing products such as trucks, buses,
construction equipment, drive systems for marine and industrial applications as w ell as aircraft engine components. The Volvo Group
also offers its customers fi nancial services. The Group has about 100,000 employees, production facilities in 19 countries, and sales
activities in some 180 countries.
Page 3
Volvo
This report has been prepared by Danske Markets Equities, which is a part of Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial
Supervisory Authority. The author of this report is Carl Holmquist, Senior Analyst.
Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high quality research based on research objectivity and
independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske Bank Research Policy. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been
instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and to the Compliance
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remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.
The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts of Danske Bank are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
Within the previous 12 months Danske Bank has been Lead Manager of a public offer of credit bond of Volvo Treasury AB.
Danske Bank is a market maker and may as such hold positions in the financial instruments mentioned in this report.
Danske Bank has made no agreement with Volvo to write this report.
Danske Bank research reports are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Investment Professionals’ Ethical rules and the Recommendations of the
Danish Securities Dealers Association.
Financial models and/or methodology used in this report
Recommendations and opinions in this research are formed based on a combination of Discounted Cash Flow analysis, industry knowledge, peer group
analysis, and company specific and market technical elements (events affecting both the financial and operational profile of the company). Forecasting of
company sales and earnings is based on segmented bottom up models using subjective views of relevant future market developments. The output is aggregated
into models for group profit and loss, balance sheets and cash flow estimates – all taking into account the recent development in historical reports. In addition,
company guidance and financial guidance is taken into account.
Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. In
addition, see the front page of this publication for a categorisation of the risk (above average, average, and below average) of investing in Volvo compared to the
coverage universe as a whole.
Expected updates
This research product will be updated on a quarterly basis following the quarterly result statements from the company.
Please see the front page of this research report for the first date of publication.
Recommendation structure
The Danske Markets Equities Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a total return,
measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a 12 month time horizon.
The Danske Markets Equities spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy, Accumulate (or
Add), Hold, Reduce, Sell, (in short: B, A, H, R, S). In specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts do have to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each rating or recommendation:
•
Buy: the stock is expected to generate a total return of over 20%+ during the next 12 months time horizon.
•
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 10% to 20% during the next 12 months time horizon.
•
Hold: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 0% to 10% during the next 12 months time horizon
•
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate a total return of 0 to -10% during the next 12 months time horizon
•
Sell: the stock is expected to generate a total return below -10% during the next 12 months time horizon
•
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a capital operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer or a related
party of the issuer is or could be involved or to a change of analyst covering the stock
•
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer or a related party of the issuer
Page 4
Volvo
Within the past quarter Danske Markets Equities has had investment recommendations on 172 securities. The distribution of recommendations is represented in
the Securities ratings breakdown diagram below.
Securities ratings breakdown
Sell
10%
Buy
21%
Reduce
20%
Accumulate
23%
Hold
26%
The proportion of issuers corresponding to each of the recommendation categories above to which Danske Bank has provided investment banking services
within the previous 12 months is shown below.
Rating
Investment banking relationships
Buy
11%
Accumulate
10%
Hold
11%
Reduce
9%
Sell
12%
Changes in recommendations in the last 12 months:
Date
Old recommendation
New recommendation
9 June 2009
Hold
Reduce
31 March 2009
Accumulate
Hold
16 March 2009
Buy
Accumulate
27 October 2008
Hold
Buy
Danske Markets Equities reinitiated coverage of the stock on 29 July 2008 with a Hold rating
Disclaimer:
This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It has been prepared independently, solely from publicly available
information and does not take into account the views of Danske Bank’s internal credit department. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell
any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its
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business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. The Equity
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reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Page 5
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www.equinet-ag.de
www.ibg.gr
www.ncb.ie
www.snssecurities.nl
Volvo
Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)
Banca Akros S.p.A.
Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 Milano
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
Danske Markets Equities
Holmens Kanal 2-12
DK-1092 Copenhagen K
Denmark
Phone: +45 45 12 00 00
Fax: +45 45 14 91 87
Bank Degroof
Rue de I’Industrie 44
1040 Brussels
Belgium
Phone: +32 2 287 91 16
Fax: +32 2 231 09 04
Equinet AG
Gräfstraße 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410
Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, 33-5
1269-050 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 389 68 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
Caja Madrid Bolsa S.V.B.
Serrano, 39
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Fax: +34 91 577 3770
CM - CIC Securities
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 4016 2692
Fax: +33 1 4596 7788
Investment Bank of Greece
24B, Kifisias Avenue
151 25 Marousi
Greece
Phone: +30 210 81 73 000
Fax: +30 210 68 96 325
NCB Stockbrokers Ltd.
3 George Dock,
Dublin 1
Ireland
Phone: +353 1 611 5611
Fax: +353 1 611 5781
SNS Securities N.V.
Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064
European Securities Network LLP
Registered office c/o Withers LLP
16 Old Bailey - London EC4M 7EG