Multi-Thread Integrative Cooperative Optimization for Rich VRP Teodor Gabriel Crainic, Gloria Cerasela Crişan, Nadia Lahrichi, Michel Gendreau, Walter Rei, Thibaut Vidal DOMinant 2009, Molde, Norway Multi-Thread Integrative Cooperative Optimization for Rich VRP Teodor Gabriel Crainic, Gloria Cerasela Crişan, Nadia Lahrichi, Michel Gendreau, Walter Rei, Thibaut Vidal DOMinant 2009, Molde, Norway Plan Our research program: Addressing comprehensively rich (combinatorial optimization) (planning) problems Goals, objectives, inspiration / fundamental ideas The Integrative Cooperative Search approach Rich VRP: Concept and literature review Applying ICS to rich VRP The current application: MDPVRP Planning and uncertainty Perspectives 3 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Our Research Program Planning and management of complex systems Transportation, logistics, telecommunications, … Design, scheduling, routing, … Combinatorial optimization problems Mix-integer formulations Formally hard problems Large instances Plan now, repetitively execute later: uncertainty More complex modeling and algorithmic issues 4 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Our Research Program (2) Need “good” solutions in “reasonable” computing times Exact methods for reduced complexity/dimensions Decomposition, enumeration, bounds, cuts, … Heuristics and meta-heuristics Parallel computation Cooperative search The problem-solving paradigms evolve, however 5 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Rich Problem Setting Large number of interacting attributes (characteristics) Larger than in “classical” (“academic”) settings Problem characterization Objectives Uncertainty That one desires to (must ) address simultaneously 6 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Design of Wireless Networks Simultaneously Determine the appropriate number of base stations Location Height & power Number of antennas/station Tilt & orientation of each antenna Optimize cost, coverage & exposure to electrosmog 7 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Rich VRP Vehicle routing in practice Attributes of several generic problems Complex “cost” functions 8 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 The Journey of Milk ….. 9 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 10 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Actual Rich VRP Applications at FPLQ Coalition of all dairy farmers A number of processing plants Transportation centrally negotiated and managed Carrier contracting: assign farms to carriers and plants + route construction (strategic/tactic) Operational route adjustments 11 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Multiple Routing Attributes Time windows Vehicle capacities Route duration & length Topology of routes Multi-compartment Multi-depot Multiple periods Complex cost functions Pick up at farmers Deliveries at plants (very different in capacities) Mixing pickups and deliveries (sometimes) Multiple tours … Planning now by FDLQ, execute repetitively later by carriers 12 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Object and Goals of the Research Program Models and methods for addressing “rich” problems Combinatorial optimization Planning Uncertainty Operations management and plan adjustment Applications to routing and (service) design 13 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 What Methodology for Rich Problems? Simplify (!!) Series of simpler problems Simultaneous handling of multiple attributes A more complex problem to address! Propose a “new” approach 14 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Sources of Inspiration Decomposition Major methodological tool in optimization Domain decomposition in parallel computation Solution reconstruction? “Partition” modification? Simplification Fixing part of a rich problem may yield a case easier to address Cooperative (parallel) meta-heuristics successful in harnessing the power of different algorithms Guidance mechanisms 15 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Sources of Inspiration (3) VRPTW (Berger & Barkaoui, 2004) Evolved two populations Minimize total travel time Minimize temporal violations 16 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Cooperative Multi-search Several independent ([meta-]heuristic or “exact”) search threads work simultaneously on several processors & exchange information with the common goal of solving a given problem instance Exchange meaningful information in a timely manner What information? Between what processes? When & how? What does one do with imported/exchanged data? Most successful: asynchronous direct/indirect exchanges 17 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Controlled Direct Exchange Mechanisms Search r Search k Search j Search i Search l Search h 18 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Direct Exchange Mechanisms: Diffusion Search j Search i Search r Search k Search l Search h 19 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Indirect, Memory-based Exchange Mechanisms Search j Search k Memory, Pool Reference Set Elite Set Data Warehouse Search l Search i 20 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Memory-based Mechanisms No direct exchanges among searches Data is deposited and extracted from the common repository structure according to each method’s own logic Asynchronous operations and process independence easy to enforce Easy to keep track of exchanged data Dynamic and adaptive structure Exchanged information may be manipulated to build new/global data and search directions = guidance 21 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Sources of Inspiration (4) VRPTW (Le Bouthiller et al. 2005) Parallel cooperative guided meta-heuristic Two different tabu searches Two GA (simple) crossover Education through post-optimisation Communications though a central memory (pool) Patterns of arcs in good/average/bad solutions in memory and their evolution Particular phases and guidance based on patterns 22 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Sources of Inspiration (5) Wireless network design (Crainic et al. 2006) Parallel cooperative guided meta-heuristic Several tabu searches work on parts of the search space to optimize relative to certain attributes only A genetic algorithm to combine partial solutions Communications though a central memory (pool) Particular phases and guidance 23 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 ICS Fundamental Ideas & Concepts Decomposition by attribute Concurrent population evolution Solver specialization Cooperation with self-adjusting and guidance features 24 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Shared-Memory ICS Integrator Integrator Partial Solutions (set A) Partial Solvers (set A) Partial Solver (set A) Global Search Coordinator Partial Solutions (set B) Complete Solutions Partial Solvers (set B) Partial Solver (set B) 25 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Decomposition by Attribute Simpler settings by fixing (ignoring) variables or constraints “Eliminating” variables or constraints might yield the same sub-problems but impair the reconstruction of solutions Yields Well-addressed, “classical” variants with state-of-theart algorithms Formulations amenable to efficient algorithmic developments Our idea: be opportunistic! 26 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Decomposition by Attribute (2) Each subproblem = Particular fixed attribute set Addressed using effective specialized methods → Partial Solvers Partial Solvers focus on the unfixed attributes → Partial Solutions Multiple search threads One or several methods for each subproblem Meta-heuristic or exact Central-memory cooperation 27 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Decomposition by Attribute (3) Issues and challenges Homogeneous vs. heterogeneous population Purposeful evolution of partial solutions Reconstruction & improvement of complete solutions 28 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Reconstructing Complete Solutions Recombining Partial Solutions to yield complete ones Search threads / operators → Integrators Select and forward Population-based, evolutionary methods: GA & Path Relinking Mathematical programming-based models 29 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Reconstructing Complete Solutions (2) Issues and challenges Selection of partial solutions for combination Which subproblems? What quality? What diversity? Selection of complete solutions for inclusion in the central-memory population What quality? What diversity? 30 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 31 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 solutions Admissible selection operators complete solutions Mutation/ Education complete solutions Integrative crossover operators complete solutions Partial solution selection operators partial partial population P’ of elite partial solutions solutions Integrative Crossover population P of complete solutions Improving Complete Solutions Search threads – Solvers Evolve & improve complete solution population These are difficult problems! If they were “easy”, we would not need ICS! Should modify solutions in ways partial solvers would not do Post-optimization certainly interesting Large neighbourhoods for “few” iterations Select few solutions and solve and exact problem Local branching on variables from different attribute, … sets 32 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Purposeful Evolution Current processes Partial Solvers work on particular subproblems defined exogenously ↔ Initial entering communication Intra Partial Solver exchanges & evolution through central-memory cooperation Integrators extract & combine Partial Solutions ↔ One-way communications Partial solutions Integrator Complete-solution pool 33 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Purposeful Evolution – Current Processes No communications among Partial Solvers on different attribute sets No communications from Complete-solution pool to Integrators and Partial Solvers No modifications to subproblem definition (values of attributes in corresponding sets) no feed back 34 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Purposeful Evolution – Issues Reconstruct / approximate global status of the search Information exchange mechanisms Guidance for Partial Solvers & global search Evolve toward high-quality complete solutions In absence of a mathematical framework Apply cooperation principles Avoid “heavy-handed” process control A “richer” role for the Global Search Coordinator 35 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Global Search Coordinator – Monitoring Pools / populations Complete solutions (direct) Partial solutions (& integrators) (direct or indirect) Exchanges / communications (possibly) 36 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Global Search Coordinator – Monitoring (2) Classical (central) memory statistics A “richer” memory through analysis of solutions & communications Quality of solution & evolution of population Impact on population (quality & diversity) Presence of solutions or solution elements in various types/classes of solutions Arcs, routes Good, average, poor solutions Solutions with particular attribute sets, … 37 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Global Search Coordinator – Monitoring (3) The process – Partial Solver, Integrator, Solver – that produced the solution Search space covering Attribute values (combinations of) corresponding to visited search space regions (how often, quality measure) … 38 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Global Search Coordinator – Guidance Partial Solvers cooperate and communicate according to their own internal logic Based on monitoring results, “instructions” (solutions, often) are sent GSC → Partial Solver (pool) or Integrator Enrich quality or diversity Modify the values of the fixed attributes Moving the search to a different region Modify the sets of attributes defining the partition Modify parameter values or method or replace method 39 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 ICS Concurrent Evolution Selective migration set S1 of partial solvers set S2 of partial solvers Evolution set S3 of partial solvers Integrative evolution set S of solvers population P1 of partial solutions population P2 of partial solutions Guiding migration population P’ of elite partial solutions set I of integrators population P3 of partial solutions global evolution guiding-migration operators 40 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 global monitoring & guidance population P of complete solutions Zoom on Partial Solver Organization Legend GA1 partial solver Selective migration Evolution Guiding migration GA2 partial solver population Pi of partial solutions TS1 partial solver TS2 partial solver 41 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Rich VRP A concept that has emerged in the last decade or so To focus attention on problems that are closer to the real problems encountered in practical settings Some references: Two SINTEF working papers by Bräysy, Gendreau, Hasle, and Løkketangen Special issue of CEJOR (2006) edited by Hartl, Hasle, and Janssens Several recent papers dealing with specific Rich VRPs © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Rich VRP: Supply Side Extensions Heterogeneous fleet Variable travel times Multiple routes Multiple depots Location-routing Multi-compartment Complex cost structure Loading constraints © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Rich VRP: Demand Side Extensions Presence of backhauls Pickup and delivery Split deliveries Periodic problems Inventory routing Dynamic and stochastic problems Compatibility issues Loading constraints © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 MDPVRP and MDPVRPTW Multiple depots With given number of homogeneous vehicles at each depot Periodic problem Planning For horizon of t “days” (periods) each customer: a list of acceptable visit day “patterns” Each customer must be assigned to a single depot and a single pattern and routes must be constructed for each depot/pattern, in such a way that the total cost of all the resulting routes is minimized. © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 MDPVRP and MDPVRPTW: Literature Review Integrated approach (Parthanadee and Logendran, 2006) Complex variant of MDPVRPTW Customers may be served from different depots on different days Tabu Search in which depot and pattern changes are made Much more extensive literature exists on the MDVRP and the PVRP (and their variants with time windows). © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 An Important Property Any instance of the MDVRP(TW) can be transformed into an instance of the PVRP(TW) By clever redefinition of the allowed patterns Distances to customers, however, become day-dependent Similarly, any instance of the MDPVRP(TW) can be transformed into a (much) larger instance of the PVRP(TW) → One can use the same solution procedure to solve the PVRP(TW), the MDVRP(TW) and the MDPVRP(TW)! © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 An Important Property (2) The previous property leads to a natural decomposition of the MDPVRP(TW) into two subproblems: PVRP(TW) → Fix depot assignments MDVRP(TW) → Fix pattern assignments We can use the same solvers as Partial Solvers for the two subproblems and as Global Solver. © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Solvers Currently, we use two solvers: A local search solver based on the Unified Tabu Search (UTS) procedure of Cordeau et al. (2001) This solver handles instances with or without time windows A new population search solver (HAPGA) This solver only handles instances without time windows (for the time being) © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Solution Representation For each customer: Depot assignment Pattern For each depot and each day: The assignment routes that are performed Some solvers (HAPGA) also use a different representation at some stages of the solution process © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Solvers: UTS Proposed by Cordeau et al. (1997, 2001) A fairly straightforward Tabu search procedure based on the GENI insertion procedure (Gendreau et al., 1992) Infeasible solutions w.r.t. capacity and route length: Allowed, Critical but penalized with self-adjusting penalties for a good performance! Handles time windows Can be generalized easily to deal with MDPVRP(TW) © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Solvers: HAPGA New solver under development HAPGA: Hybrid Adaptive Penalties Genetic Algorithm A solver for the PVRP (and “equivalent” problems) Combines two threads of ideas: Prins’ (2002) memetic approach for the VRP Solution representation, population management, … Allowing infeasible solutions with respect to capacity and route length constraint violations With self-adjusting penalties as in UTS © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 The chromosome representation of VRP solutions is as giant TSP tour covering customers without delimiters! Solutions are extracted from chromosome using a SPLIT procedure (shortest path problem on an auxiliary graph) “Standard” crossover operators Solution enhancement through local search 53 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Illustration of Prins’ Approach 54 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Solution Representation To handle periods, HAPGA maintains two chromosomes for each solution: Route chromosome As in Prins’ approach Maintains for each “day” the sequence of customer visits “Days” are listed sequentially (with delimiters) Pattern chromosome Maintains for each customer the pattern chosen (redundant information) © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Solution Evaluation Prins and his co-authors: Enforce strict capacity and route duration constraints Allow to violate the fleet size constraint Easy SPP for SPLITTING giant tours In HAPGA: Capacity and route duration constraints are relaxed Fleet size is strict SPLIT (for each day) becomes an SPP with resource constraints Can be extended to effectively handle heterogeneous fleets! © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Selection Each parent is selected through a binary tournament Select Keep two individuals at random the best one Poor individuals have a very low probability of reproducing © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: The PIX Crossover PIX: Periodic crossover with Insertions Creates a single offspring C from two parents P1 and P2 For each day t in the planning horizon, we chose randomly to: Copy no customer visits from P1 into C Copy all customer visits of day t from P1 into C Copy a substring of customer visits of day t from P1 into C © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: The PIX Crossover Parent P2 is then scanned sequentially and visits to customers are added: On days where all visits from P1 were not copied If they are allowed by some pattern for the customer considered If the total number of visits to a customer is not exceeded If some customers are missing visits, these are inserted in random order and at minimum cost after performing the SPLIT procedure © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: The PIX Crossover 60 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Education After creation, all children go through education Two local search procedures: Route improvement (RI) Applies separately to each day 8 different moves (insertions, swaps, 2-opt, 2-opt*) Pattern improvement (PI) Applied on an individual customer basis Simple descents Applied in RI, PI, RI sequence © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Repair Phase Before education 30% of children (chosen randomly) are “repaired” : By setting their penalty weights very high Pushes them back to feasibility © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Population Management Small population (10,000/n) A single child produced in each iteration Should replace the least “interesting” individual of the population Different ideas tried Experiments still under way Diversification: After 10,000 iterations without improvement, replace 90% of the population © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 HAPGA: Infeasibility Management The proportion ξ of feasible individuals is monitored Penalty coefficients are updated every 200 iterations If ξ ≤ 0.2, both coefficients are increased by 20%. If ξ ≥ 0.3, both coefficients are decreased by 15%. © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 A MDPVRPTW Implementation Three-population scheme: P0: “Global” population P1: Fixed patterns P2: Fixed depots UTS implementations for Integrator & Global Solver: MDPVRPTW The 2 Partial Solvers for “subproblems” Three copies of UTS for each population 65 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 A MDPVRPTW Implementation (2) Integrator: when idle Select random in best in each partial population Pairs → triplets (customer, depot, pattern) → build best routes (no change in pairs !) Guidance: send best on improvement Tested on instances created from the MDVRPTW and PVRPTW instances of Cordeau et al. (2001) 66 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Initial Results (20 instances out of 40) No. pr01b pr02b pr03b pr04b pr05b pr06b pr07b pr08b pr09b pr10b pr11b pr12b pr13b pr14b pr15b pr16b pr17b pr18b pr19b pr20b GUTS 2536,76 4622,78 5882,97 7085,11 8133,62 9384,1 5352,7 7890,22 11426,3 13555,6 2210,16 3949,45 5129,08 5652,3 6115,84 7436,69 5153,61 6906,79 9494,45 11331,1 Best ICS 2457,47 4513,31 5822 7025,64 7823,75 9155,83 5334,61 7747,16 11264,9 13196,2 2166,16 3846,21 5077,59 5671,24 6029,28 7354,08 4954,64 6755,75 9389,05 11351,1 % -3,13 -2,37 -1,04 -0,84 -3,81 -2,43 -0,34 -1,81 -1,41 -2,65 -1,99 -2,61 -1,00 0,34 -1,42 -1,11 -3,86 -2,19 -1,11 0,18 GUTS 2667,168 4723,013 6113,291 7518,133 8415,249 9545,122 5866,998 8057,079 11545,58 14102,9 2500,293 4113,193 5275,06 5834,044 6373,293 8233,508 5323,459 7148,461 10039,86 12529,28 Average ICS 2487,084 4560,94 5889,186 7052,701 7984,21 9216,941 5346,14 7815,076 11342,5 13358,84 2203,722 3904,369 5102,555 5703,701 6100,656 7410,981 5090,012 6837,984 9493,532 11466,16 % -6,75 -3,43 -3,67 -6,19 -5,12 -3,44 -8,88 -3,00 -1,76 -5,28 -11,86 -5,08 -3,27 -2,23 -4,28 -9,99 -4,39 -4,34 -5,44 -8,49 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Initial Results (20 instances out of 40) (2) No. pr01b pr02b pr03b pr04b pr05b pr06b pr07b pr08b pr09b pr10b pr11b pr12b pr13b pr14b pr15b pr16b pr17b pr18b pr19b pr20b P-GUTS 2451,55 4513,68 5843,75 7012,79 7842,2 9119,34 5288,57 7737,29 11255,3 13292,7 2104,55 3876,04 5095,37 5686,64 6088,26 7316,19 4853,46 6769,81 9373,12 11403,2 Best ICS 2457,47 4513,31 5822 7025,64 7823,75 9155,83 5334,61 7747,16 11264,9 13196,2 2166,16 3846,21 5077,59 5671,24 6029,28 7354,08 4954,64 6755,75 9389,05 11351,1 % 0,24 -0,01 -0,37 0,18 -0,24 0,40 0,87 0,13 0,09 -0,73 2,93 -0,77 -0,35 -0,27 -0,97 0,52 2,08 -0,21 0,17 -0,46 P-GUTS 2461,344 4531,748 5866,98 7035,81 7890,094 9156,675 5320,15 7765,598 11296,2 13342,58 2128,174 3890,99 5103,53 5704,57 6113,942 7421,524 4915,364 6848,514 9471,418 11470,54 Average ICS 2487,084 4560,94 5889,186 7052,701 7984,21 9216,941 5346,14 7815,076 11342,5 13358,84 2203,722 3904,369 5102,555 5703,701 6100,656 7410,981 5090,012 6837,984 9493,532 11466,16 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 % 1,05 0,64 0,38 0,24 1,19 0,66 0,49 0,64 0,41 0,12 3,55 0,34 -0,02 -0,02 -0,22 -0,14 3,55 -0,15 0,23 -0,04 An Evolutionary ICS MDPVRP Illustration 3-population scheme as in other application HAPGA is used as Partial Solver, Global Solver and Integrator For each population, 3 solvers: 2 x HAPGA 1 x UTS When HAPGA is used as Partial Solver, education does not change the patterns corresponding to the “fixed” attributes 69 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 An Evolutionary ICS MDPVRP Illustration (2) Two Integrators: Random select in 25% best 1. 2 parents extract depot and period patterns generate population evolve send best valid 2. 100 couples: crossover + educate & repair send best (valid) Guiding migration on partial population stalling Random generation of partial population + Random select & migrate 1 complete in 25% best 70 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Test Instances Derived from the set of instances used in the MDPVRPTW implementation. Inst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 m 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 3 n 48 96 144 192 240 288 72 144 216 288 d 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 71 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 t 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 Preliminary Results Gaps with respect to best known solutions: HAPGA 1h00 1,61% 5 min 1,22% 3h00 0,92% ICS no UTS 15 min 0,77% P-HAPGA 3 x 1h00 0,83% 5 min 1,30% 30 min 0,60% 5 min 1,20% ICS 15 min 1,01% ICS no Guidance 15 min 0,79% 72 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 30 min 0,82% 30 min 0,66% Planning and Uncertainty Plan For a set of fixed routes that will be used repetitively some time later for a given amount of time Within an environment where there is variability of and uncertainty on future values of system characteristics – demand – at planning time Important characteristics of desired plan: Flexibility: Planned routes can be adapted easily to changes in the system environment (new information) Robustness: Planned routes do not need to be overly adjusted given changes in the environment 73 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 A Case Study – the FPLQ FPLQ assumes (by law) responsibility for the transportation of milk from farms to processing plants, producers assuming the costs FPLQ negotiates contracts with motor carriers within a provincial convention 3 main FPLQ processes Negotiation of contracts (year) Pickup photo (monthly adjustment) Assignment of routes (weekly adjustment) 1 carrier process (!!): operate routes 74 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planning at FPLQ Yearly negotiation of contracts with carriers On forecasts of milk production at farms and milk demand at plants & last year plan 1. Assign farms to carriers, build routes, assign routes to plants: depot farms plant May be more complicated than that … 2. Price routes and negotiate rates with carriers 3. Mediate between FPLQ and carriers Contracts generated: 97 carriers, 575 routes, 134 plants For a total of 77 050 rates (134 plants x 575 routes) 75 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Adjusting the Plan The “pickup” photo – monthly Select a 2-day period Observe how routes are performed Obtain a detailed description of the quantity of milk picked and delivered From these observation adjustments are defined for the next month “Routing”, farm ↔ route/carrier 76 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Adjusting the Plan (2) Assignment of routes – weekly Plants send week requirements Adjust the plan for next week Routes ↔ Plants Distribute the milk supply through the various plants in order to minimize transportation costs Balance (reconciliate) supply and demand 77 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Adjusting the Plan (3) The two adjustment processes not yet completely defined But they indicate the FPLQ follows the standard practice of plan now and adjust later with revealed information The so-called a priori planning Build an a priori plan: Negotiation of contracts Operate and adjust the established a priori plan: Pickup photo Assignment of routes Build a series of routes to be assigned to carriers tactical adjustments of farms to routes operational adjustments of routes to plants 78 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planning Processes A well-defined planning process Tools to build routes (with few attributes) “locally” No comprehensive planning methodology No capability for scenario/policy analysis No formal taking into account of future variability and uncertainty 79 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planned Work to Address Uncertainty Goals A “comprehensive” study of uncertainty and its impact on planning Develop stochastic programming models and methods to produce more flexible and robust plans Insight into form and characteristics of such plans and, possibly, develop simpler but as efficient solution approaches & policies For regular planning and strategic studies 80 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planned Work to Address Uncertainty (2) Sources of uncertainty Farm production volumes Plant requirements Travel and service times Disruptions Information process(es) Farm and plant (regular, uncoordinated) updates Actual availability at farms 81 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planned Work to Address Uncertainty (3) Recovery and adjustment practices = the recourse(s) The decision process(es) Independent participants – farms, plants Routes operated very independently – carriers Will the plan be permanently modified at some point in the future (when?, how?)? Modeling – stochastic programming Recourse formulations Decision stages: two or multiple Probabilistic constraints to bound the risk Solution methods – stochastic programming 82 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 ICS for Planning Under Uncertainty Adapting ICS: A rich research program Decomposition strategy Functional (attributes) decomposition Domain decomposition Scenario decomposition Which problems for the partial solvers? Which problems for integrators? Evolution & guidance? 83 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Planned Work to Address Uncertainty(4) The value of explicit inclusion of uncertainty factor into planning models Insight into form and characteristics of “stochastic” solutions Deterministic solution methods building on this insight? “Solving” with a “few” appropriate scenarios? … 84 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Conclusions & Perspectives Rich (combinatorial optimization) problems present interesting challenges and opportunities Parallel cooperation performs very well ICS appears promising when complexity grows Still a lot of work on all aspects of the approach and applications 85 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009 Questions from the field: Did you know… One cow produces enough milk to satisfy the annual milk and dairy product needs of 30 people It takes 11 litres of milk to make 1 kilogram of cheese 86 © Teodor Gabriel Crainic 2009
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