Welcome to the presentation on-
Household response to cyclone and induced surge in coastal
Bangladesh: coping strategies and explanatory variables
Paper written By:
Shitangsu Kumar Paul
Jayant K. Routray
Presented by:
MDS 121501
MDS 121514
MDS 121522
MDS 121528
Under the Course:
Title: Climate Change and Disaster
Management
Course ID: MDS 5305
MDS Program, Khulna University
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Content
Basic Learning
1. Introduction
2. Study area and methodology
3. Impacts and dynamics of cyclones and induced
surges in the study villages
4. Indigenous coping strategies for cyclone and
induced surge mitigation
5. Adoption of coping strategies: differentials and
explanatory variables
6. Conclusion
Basic learning
• Cyclone and induced surge: Storm surge is defined as the abnormal rise of
water generated by a storm, over and above the normal astronomical tide, and i
expressed in terms of height above predicted or expected tide levels.
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Basic learning
•Vulnerability : Exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed,
either physically or emotionally
• Coping strategy : Coping is a capacity, a capacity to RESPOND and to RECOVER
from something stressful: e.g. a disaster. remedial actions undertaken by people whose
survival and livelihood are compromised or threatened.
•Coping ability : Ability to respond and to recover from something stressful.
•There are three stages of coping. The first is called ‘ non-erosive’, because it leaves
behind little or no permanent damage. One step further down is erosive coping:
permanent harm is done. In the last stage, coping has
failed, and the door is open for destitution.
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Research Purpose of this Study
The purpose of this research is
to explore indigenous coping strategies
identify underlying demographic
socio-economic and other relevant variables that influence the adoption of
coping strategies
first section of this study
the second section
various indigenous coping strategies in
response to cyclone and induced surge
have been identified and discussed.
the chi-square test is applied to various
demographic and socio-economic
variables such as age, gender,
education, land ownership, income and
occupation against different coping
measures.
It is assumed that such demographic and socio-economic variables have
significant influence on the adoption of coping strategies against cyclones and
induced surges.
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Introduction
A review of existing literature finds that
coastal flooding,
cyclone and storm surge,
the systematic documentation of indigenous knowledge and practices
the identification of how different underlying factors influence coping
behavior is still lacking.
The present study intends
to explore different pre-disaster
during disaster and post-disaster coping measures
effectiveness to mitigate the impacts of cyclones and induced surges on
coastal Bangladesh.
to explain how different variables such as age, gender, income, education,
occupation, and other exogenous factors influence the adoption of coping
measures.
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Methodology of this study and study area
The research is based on both secondary and primary data collected
through key informant interviews, focus group discussions and a
household questionnaire survey.
Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to analyze the data. By
assuming a 95% confidence interval, the total sample size for the
household questionnaire survey was 331 out of 788 households.
Samples were drawn proportionately from three villages. Out of the total
respondents approximately 90% are males and 10% are females.
Population
Angulkata
Tetul Baria
Charkashem
Sample
Angulkata
10%
Male
Tetul Baria
90%
Female
Charkashem
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Study area
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Impacts and dynamics of cyclones and induced surges in the study villages
Affect
Charkashem and Tatulbaria Villages
• severely affected
Angulkata
• moderately affected
Induced Surge
cyclone induced surge height was
• more than 3 m in Charkashem,Tatulbaria;
• about 1.5 m in Angulkata
Water Borne Diseases
Tube wells were
submerged under
saline water
drinking and
domestic water was
highly polluted in
Charkashem and
Tatulbaria villages
Water borne
disease increase
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Impacts and dynamics of cyclones and induced surges in the study villages
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Indigenous coping strategies for cyclone and induced surge mitigation
Villagers have their own coping strategies based on
• Cultural
• socio-economic background
• physical location
• Characteristics of the disasters
• individual’s vulnerability and ability to absorb shock
The study considered the 3 sequences of coping measures, as:
 Well in advance
 Immediately before the disasters
 Post disaster coping measures
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Coping strategies well in advance of the cyclone and induced surge event
• Unique design and construction method of houses- (Machan and Pataton) to
save foods and goods are common strategies to minimize impact of the
disaster.
• Plantations of coconut, betel nut and banana trees around the house, gentle
sloping of the house roof towards the south-east helps the wind to flow over
the house
• Put useful materials in a net or jute bag and throw these into a shallow pond
or tie them to strong trees with cloth or rope
• Most valuable items, such as jewelry, are wrapped in cloth and kept inside a
cooking-hole in the kitchen or by digging a safety-hole in the floor to protect
them from inundation and being washed away by the surge water.
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Coping strategies well in advance of the cyclone and induced surge event
contd
80% of total households do not have radio or television
About half of the respondents do not understand the forecast, and few
understand superficially or get some signals
85% of the fishermen do not have radios in their fishing boats; and rarely
listen (81%) to weather forecasts.
They generally depends on indigenous cyclone prediction methods:
 Abnormal south-eastern wind circulation along with a dark and cloudy
sky (31%)
 The tendency of ants to climb walls carrying grain and moving
purposefully towards higher ground or the roofs of houses (23%)
 Sea birds coming inland in groups (20%);
 Abnormal increase of water temperature in the sea and rivers (15%)
 Flies attaching themselves to cattle for protection against the surge
water and wind (8%)
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Coping strategies immediately before the cyclone and induced surge event
Majority of the household members (86.4%) do not take shelter in
traditional cyclone shelters, but prefer to stay in the ceilings or on top of the
thatched roof of their own houses (35%), or seek refuge in neighbor’s
houses (29.3%)
No cyclone shelters are available in Charkashem and Tatulbaria. They
(85.7 and 26.6% respectively) climbed up trees and stayed in their house
ceilings until the threat was over
A few people made use of plastic containers or banana rafts to save their
lives from the fast flow of surge water
Those who have no options, took shelter on the embankments, raised
roads or other elevated places after the cyclone
Majority of the respondents (49%) do not take any protective measures, as
they believe – “Cyclone is God’s will and God will save them; it is beyond
the control of people”
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Post cyclone and induced surge event coping strategies
Post event coping measures include risk management and risk coping
strategies.
After a cyclone more than 80% depend on alternative income sources
Majority involved in government or NGO sponsored ‘food for work’ or ‘cash
for work’ programs
The study reveals that about 52, 47 and 14% in Angulkata, Tatulbaria and
Charkashem villages respectively had sold assets, like: big trees, jewelry,
household utensils, paddies, chickens, cattle, fish, tin sheets, fishing and
agricultural equipment etc.
Mortgaging of land was found most common in Angulkata
Advance selling of labor also a common coping strategy
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Post cyclone and induced surge event coping strategies contd
The study also reveals that borrowing of money is a common coping measure
among 80% of total households;
Major loan providers:
NGOs
Mahajans / arotdars
friends/relatives
Government banks
44.8%
19.5%
8.8%
4.8%
Mal- practiced found as: people borrowed money simultaneously from multiple
sources and used one source to repay another and thus they fall in the
‘vicious circle of borrowing’
Migration after a cyclone found as 13% cases
Food scarcity make bound to reduce dailly meals formore than 90% of total
respondents
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Adoption of coping strategies: differentials and explanatory variables
This study follows the socio-cultural approach to determine the variation in
human coping due to the variation in socio-economic factors as follows:
Age, Gender, Education level, Land ownership,
Households Income, Primary Occupation.
Response to early warning, locational exposure, magnitude of cyclonic
events, relief and rehabilitation, social protection and informal risk-sharing
within the community are also considered.
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Basic learning
Interpretation technique
•The quantity Χ2 describe the magnitude of discrepancy
• If Χ2 is zero it means observed and expected frequencies is
completely coincide
•The greater of the Χ2 , the greater the discrepancy
•The calculated value of Χ2 Is compared with the table value of Χ2 For
given degrees of freedom at specified level of significance. If calculated
Χ2 >table value then it is considered as significant
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2-2
Basic learning
CHI-SQUARE DISTRIBUTION
df = 3
df = 5
df = 10
c2
14-4
Basic learning
Goodness-of-Fit Test: Equal
Expected Frequencies
• Let f 0 and f e be the observed and expected
frequencies respectively.
• H 0 : no difference between f 0 and f e
• H1: there is a difference betweenf 0 and f e
  f  f 2 
• The test statistic is:
0
e
x2  


fe



• The critical value is a chi-square value with (k-1)
degrees of freedom, where k is the number of
categories
Basic learning
A contingency table reported in the literature should look something like the one above.
When interpreting this table, you compare the percent of each independent category. In this
case, 10% of White mothers, compared to 44.83% of Black mothers and 35.71% of Hispanic
mothers received bad news. The probability associated with the chi square statistic of 9.205 is
less than .01 indicating there is a strong relationship between whether or not the mom received
bad news and her race.
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Basic learning
P Value
In statistical significance testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining a test
statistic result at least as extreme as the one that was actually observed,
assuming that the null hypothesis is true
An informal interpretation with a significance level of about 10%:
p < 0.01 : very strong presumption against neutral hypothesis
p = 0.01 : very strong presumption against neutral hypothesis
0.01 < p < 0.05 : strong presumption against neutral hypothesis
0.05 < p < 0.1 : low presumption against neutral hypothesis
p > 0.1 : no presumption against the neutral hypothesis
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Age
Indigenous
Cyclone
Prediction
Gender
Education Level
• Secondary school and college
level education (83.3%)
• primary school level (57.4%)
and illiterate (46.9%)
household heads
Age
Understanding
Cyclone
Warming
Signal
Income
diversification
Precautionary
Food Saving
Active group
Aged and Young
Reducing Meal
Per day
Aged and Young
Family
Member’s
Begging
Age(Old)
secondary school and college level
education
primary school
school level
level and
and illiterate
illiterate
primary
Female
Headed
Household
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Age
Selling Labor
with advance
payment
Gender
1. Active
group
(22.4%)
2. Young
(7.6%)
3. Aged
(5.1%)
Education Level
Female
Headed
Household
Selling of Asset
Borrowing
Migration
Female
Headed
Household
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Land Ownership
Household Income Primary occupation
Indigenous
Cyclone
Prediction
Understanding
Cyclone
Warming Signal
Fishermen have a higher ability
to predict forthcoming
cyclones
understanding of
cyclone warnings
is higher among
medium and large
farmers
(67.7%) and
comparatively
lower among
small farmers
(48.7%)
higher among the
upper
income group
(75.4%) and
comparatively less
among middle
(49.7%) and lower
income
groups (39.6%)
Income
diversification
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Land Ownership
Precautionary
Food Saving
Household Income Primary occupation
higher
among
medium and large
farmers (67.7 and
52.3% respectively)
and comparatively
lower among small
farmers and landless
households
(56.6,
51.8 and 35, 22.5%
respectively)
higher among service holders and
businessmen,
and farmers while very low among
maidservants, daily laborers
Reducing Meal
Per day
Family Member’s
Begging
Selling Labor with
advance payment
Selling of Asset
Borrowing
Migration
migration isis
higher
migration
higher
among the
income
among
thelower
lower
category category
income
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Household income
It reveals that understanding of cyclone warning (p = 0.000) is higher among
the upper income group (75.4%) and comparatively less among middle (49.7%)
and lower income groups (39.6%).
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Response to early warning
Reasons behind not come to Cyclone Shelter
disbelief in existing cyclone forecasts
fear of theft
fatalism
unfavourable weather
poor communication
long distance and inadequacy of shelters
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Response to early warning
After Sidr
15
85
No move to
Cyclone
Shelter
Move to
Cyclone
Shelter
33.33
66.67
Move to
Cyclone
Shelter
No move to
Cyclone
Shelter
Rate of Change is 344%
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Location exposure and magnitude of cyclone
Inland Community
Char Area
(Vulnerable for
-Cyclone and
Induced Surge)
Lack of Resource
and Become a part
of Fishing
Community
Sea
If surge water remains stagnant
for an
extended period, it pollutes both
surface and drinking water.
Spreading of water borne
diseases reduces people’s coping
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ability and increases the state
of
vulnerability
Relief and rehabilitation
Relief
Component
Rice
1 times
Three months Time Period
2 times 3 times
4 times
5 times
Cash
Cooking Oil
Pulses
Household
Utensils
Clothes
Support
Service
Material
Assistance for
Rebuilding
Local Economy
Money for
Rebuilding
Local Economy
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Social protection and informal risk sharing within the community
Food for work
Cash for work
Household helped each other during cyclone &
post cyclone period
Manual labor
Food sharing
Home reconstruction materials
Agricultural & fishing equipment and seeds
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Conclusion
This study confirms that indigenous coping strategies can significantly
minimize the cyclone vulnerability. Social protection measures along
with informal risk-sharing mechanisms within the community play a vital
role for rebuilding the settlements and the livelihoods of victims.
The study finds that adoption of a particular set of coping strategies
depends not only on the magnitude, intensity and potential impacts of
the cyclone and induced surge, but also age, gender, social class,
dissemination of early warning information, locational exposure,
external assistance, social protection and informal risk sharing
mechanisms within the community.
Additionally, proper dissemination of early warning and government and
non-government partnerships for relief and rehabilitation activities
should be prioritized to ensure pro-poor disaster management
activities.
The study also recommends effective monitoring of the impact of aid to
ensure corrective measures to avoid the development of relief
dependency by disaster victims.
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