Growth Model: A Way to
Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)
The Effective Use of Data to Make AYP
AERA
CCSSO
April 13, 2007
A real-life example:
• School A has students entering the third grade
with scores sufficiently high that this school is not
at risk of meeting the proficiency standards. Yet
by fifth grade, this same cohort of students’
achievement levels have dropped tremendously.
School A passes AYP.
• School B’s students enter third grade with very
low scores, but they make excellent progress. By
fifth grade, this same cohort of students has
higher achievement scores than School A’s
students. However, School B fails AYP.
TVAAS Restricted Website
Diagnostic Report
At School A, all
students are
losing ground.
This school
made AYP
because it’s
students entered
at a high level of
achievement.
TVAAS Restricted Website
Diagnostic Report
At School B, students
at all achievement
levels are making
better than average
progress. However,
School B failed to
make AYP because
it’s students
entered at a low
achievement level.
2004-05 First Request with CI
Impact of Tennessee's Proposed Growth Model Projections
on the Number of Elementary Schools
Grades 3-8 in 2004-2005
Methodology
Existing AYP
Methods with
confidence
intervals
AYP Augmentation
Existing AYP
Projections are
based on all
available prior
student
achievement
data
Schools failing AYP
are credited for
students who have
projections to meet
standards in the
future.
Number of
Schools
Passing
988
1035
Number of
Schools NOT
Passing
353
306
Additional
Schools Passing
47
2005-06 Second Request with CI
Safe Harbor Augmentation on the Number of Elem/Middle Schools
Which PASSED AYP in 2005 Grades 3 through 8
Methodology
Current AYP
with Safe
Harbor
Projections are
based on all
available prior
student
achievement
data
Number of
Schools
AYP Augmentation Passing
Existing AYP
988
Schools failing AYP
are credited for
students who have
projections to meet
standards in the
future.
1068
Number of
Schools NOT Additional
Passing
Schools Passing
353
273
80
Current pilot results without CI
Safe Harbor Augmentation on the No. of Elem/Middle Schools
Which PASSED AYP in 2006 Grades 3 through 8
Methodology
Current AYP
with Safe
Harbor
Projections are
based on all
available prior
student
achievement
data
Number of
Schools
AYP Augmentation Passing
Existing AYP
1360
Schools failing AYP
are credited for
students who have
projections to meet
standards in the
future.
1367
Number of
Schools NOT Additional
Passing
Schools Passing
311
305
7
What reports on TVAAS show student
projections?
Custom Student Report
Children with sufficient previous test scores
will have a student projection on the Custom
Student Report
Historical data for every child
Projection toward Graduation
Requirements
How will projections be used for AYP?
•
If a student’s projections are greater than the standards for
Gateway Math and Gateway English (the State Board
Requirement for high school graduation and the high school
AYP academic measures), then this student will be considered
‘Proficient’ in the subsequent “Safe Harbor” calculations—any
student whose projections do not meet the high school
graduation standards, even if they tested proficient in the
current grade, will be considered ‘Not Proficient.’
•
All students in the school will be evaluated using the
projections for Gateway Math and Gateway Language.
•
Once the projections are evaluated, all of the existing AYP
calculations and reporting rules will then be applied, including
all subgroup disaggregations, to determine if this school has
met AYP. With this process, a school that meets “Safe
Harbor” in this manner will have ensured that all sub-groups
and all ranges of prior achievement will have made progress
toward meaningful future standards.
Growth Model for AYP Links
•
TVAAS Public Site
•
TVAAS Restricted Site
https://tvaas.sas.com/evaas/public_welcome.jsp
https://tvaas.sas.com/evaas/login.jsp
•
Growth Model Proposal Link
http://tennessee.gov/education/nclb/doc/NCLB%20GrowthModelPropo
sal.pdf
•
Link to web cast on Growth Model Hearing July 27, 2006:
•
Link to the GAO (Government Accounting Office) report:
•
Other questions: [email protected]
http://edworkforce.house.gov/hearings/hrgarchive.htm
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d06948t.pdf