Assignment 4: Policy Outcomes
Due Week 8 and worth 110 points
Write a five to six (5-6) page paper in which you:
(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 4 for criterion 1.)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Construct constitutive and operational definitions for any three (3) of the actions and outcome variables listed in the
shaded box under Review Question 1 at the end of Chapter 6. (Note: The box includes Program expenditure,
Equality of educational opportunity, Energy consumption, etc.)
(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 5 for criterion 2.)
Identify three (3) policy problems listed in the shaded box under Review Question 5 and determine an appropriate
indicator or index that would help determine whether each of the identified problems are being solved through
government action. Justify your position on each. (Note: The box includes Work alienation, School dropouts,
Poverty, etc.)
(Note: Refer to Chapter 6 Review Question 13 for criterion 3.)
Construct valid rebuttals to the following argument using at least four (4) threats to validity: (B) The greater the cost
of an alternative, the less likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W) The enforcement of the maximum speed
limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6
deaths per 100 million miles after the implementation of the 55-mph speed limit. (C) The 55-mph speed limit
(National Speed Law of 1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.
Include at least two (2) peer-reviewed references (no more than five [5] years old) from material outside the
textbook to support your views. Note: Appropriate peer-reviewed references include scholarly articles and
governmental Websites. Do not use open source Websites such as Wikipedia, Sparknotes.com, Ask.com, and similar
Websites are not acceptable resources.
Your assignment must follow these formatting requirements:


Be typed, double spaced, using Times New Roman font (size 12), with one-inch margins on all sides; citations and
references must follow APA or school-specific format. Check with your professor for any additional instructions.
Include a cover page containing the title of the assignment, the student’s name, the professor’s name, the course
title, and the date. The cover page and the reference page are not included in the required assignment page length.
Book reference
Dunn, W. N. (11/2011). Public Policy Analysis, 5th Edition. [VitalSource Bookshelf Online]. Retrieved from
https://strayer.vitalsource.com/#/books/9781323081051/
For Cikterion 1-3
1.How is monitoring related to forecasting?
2.What is the relationship between ill-structured problems and approaches
to monitoring?
3.What is the relationship between monitoring and the four strategies of
policy analysis discussed in Chapter 1 (Figure 1.2)?
Program expenditure
Equality of educational opportunity
Personnel turnover
National security
Health services
Work incentives
Quality of life
Pollution
Satisfaction with municipal services
Energy consumption
Income distribution
Rapport with clients
4.Construct constitutive and operational definitions for any five of the
following action and outcome variables:
5.The following table lists several policy problems. For five of these
problems, provide an indicator or index that would help determine
whether these problems are being solved through government action.
Work alienation
School dropouts
Crime
Poverty
Energy crisis
Fiscal crisis
Inflation
Racial discrimination
6.The following table reports the number of criminal offenses known to the
police per 100,000 population. Known offenses are broken down into
two categories—violent crimes against persons and crimes against
property—from 1985 to 2009. Construct two curved-line graphs that
display trends in crime rates over the period. Label the two graphs
appropriately. What do these graphs suggest about crime as a policy
problem?
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2
Violent
556
730
685
507
469
4
Property
4,651
5,079
4,591
3,618
3,432
3
Crime Rates in the United States: Offenses Known to Police per 100,000 Population, 1985–2009
7.In the following table are data on the percentage distribution of family
income by quintiles in 1975, 1989, and 2006. Use these data to construct
three Lorenz curves that depict changes in the distribution of income in
1975, 1989, and 2006. Label the curves and the two axes.
Quintiles
1975
1989
2006
Highest
41.0
46.7
52.1
Second
24.0
24.0
20.3
Third
17.6
15.9
14.3
Fourth
12.0
9.6
9.5
Lowest
5.4
3.8
4.7
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
Percentage Distribution of Family Personal Income in the United States by Quintiles, 1975, 1989, and 200
8.Calculate the Gini concentration ratio for 1975, 1989, and 2006 data
presented in study suggestion 7. What do the Lorenz curves and Gini
coefficients suggest about poverty as a policy problem? If poverty and
other problems are “artificial” and “subjective,” how valid is the
information displayed by the Lorenz curves? Why?
9.Policy issue: Should average monthly benefits paid to mothers under the
Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program be
increased?
Year
Average Monthly Benefit
Consumer Price Index (1982–84 = 100)
1970
$183.13
38.8
1975
219.44
53.8
1980
280.03
82.4
1985
342.15
107.6
Year
Average Monthly Benefit
Consumer Price Index (1982–84 = 100)
1988
374.07
118.3
10.
Prepare a policy memo that answers this question. Before writing
the memo:
a. Prepare a purchasing power index for all years in the series, using
1970 as the base year.
b. Convert the average monthly benefits into real benefits for these
years.
c. Repeat the same procedures, using 1980 as the base year.
11.
Imagine that you are examining the effects of ten scholarship
awards on the subsequent performance of disadvantaged youths in
college. There are fewer awards than applicants, and awards must be
based on merit. Therefore, it is not possible to provide all disadvantaged
students with awards, nor is it politically feasible to select students
randomly because this conflicts with the principle of merit. You decide
to allocate the ten awards according to the following rules: No student
will receive an award without scoring at least 86 on the examination;
five awards will be given automatically to the top students in the 92–100
interval; and the remaining five awards will be given to a random sample
of students in the 86–91 interval.
One year later, you obtain information on the grade point averages of the
ten award students and ten other disadvantaged students who did not
receive an award. You have college entrance examination scores for all
twenty students. Does the provision of scholarship awards to
disadvantaged students improve subsequent achievement in college?
Award Group
Non-award Group
Examination Scores
Grade Point Average
Examination Scores
Grade Point Av
99
3.5
88
3.2
Award Group
Non-award Group
Examination Scores
Grade Point Average
Examination Scores
Grade Point Av
97
3.9
89
3.2
Examination Scores
Grade Point Average
Examination Scores
Grade Point Ave
94
3.4
90
3.3
92
3.0
86
3.0
92
3.3
91
3.5
86
3.1
85
3.1
90
3.3
81
3.0
89
3.2
79
2.8
88
3.2
84
3.0
91
3.4
80
2.6
a. Construct a regression-discontinuity graph that displays
examination scores and grade point averages for the award and
non-award groups. Use X s and Os to display data points for the
experimental (X) and control (O) groups.
b. Construct a worksheet and compute for each group the values
of a and b in the equation Y = a + b(X).
c. For each group, write the regression equation that describes the
relation between merit (examination scores) and subsequent
achievement (grade point averages).
d. Compute the standard error of estimate at the 95 percent
estimation interval (i.e., two standard errors) for each group.
e. Compute r and r.
c
2
f. Interpret information contained in (a) through (e) and answer the
question: Does the provision of scholarship awards to
disadvantaged students improve subsequent achievement in
college? Justify your answer.
12.
Subtract 0.5 from each student’s grade point average in the nonaward (control) group in the previous problem.
a. Does the Y intercept change for the control group? Why?
b. Does the slope of the regression line change for the control
group? Why?
c. Does the standard error of estimate change for the control group?
Why?
d. Does r and r change for the control group? Why?
e. What do your answers show about the appropriateness of
correlation and regression analysis for problems for which pretest
and posttest scores are highly correlated?
f. What, then, are the special advantages of regression-discontinuity
analysis?
13.
Using at least four threats to validity, construct rebuttals to the
following argument: (B) The greater the cost of an alternative, the less
likely it is that the alternative will be pursued. (W)The enforcement of
the maximum speed limit of 55 mph increases the costs of exceeding the
speed limit. (I) The mileage death rate fell from 4.3 to 3.6 deaths per 100
million miles after the implementation of the 55 mph speed
limit. (C) The 55 mph speed limit (National Maximum Speed Law of
1973) has been definitely successful in saving lives.
Study Figure 6.13 before you begin.
2
Figure 1.2 Forms strategies of policy analysis
Figure 1.2 Forms strategies of policy analysis