Kansverwachtingen in de Maas?
Flood Control 2015 Research Program
Karel Heynert & Jan Verkade
Deltares, The Netherlands
Flood Control 2015 - Research Topics
Probability Forecasts
Probabilistic Flood Forecasting
What do flood forecasters & warners think?
MOGREPS ensemble
• Information overload!
Deterministic Forecast
• How should to decide whether to warn of not?
Ensemble Forecast (Spaghetti Plot)
• Too scientific for operational flood warning
• Maybe useful as background information…
National Flood Forecasting
System (NFFS)
Probabilities (Plume Plot)
Two Realisations of Same Meteo Forecast
Why Probabilistic Flood Forecasting?
10 mm/hr
20 mm/hr
Threshold exceedance
No threshold exceedance
Why Probabilistic Flood Forecasting?
10 mm/hr
20 mm/hr
No threshold exceedance
Threshold exceedance
Why Probabilistic Flood Forecasting?
20 % probability of > 20 mm/hr
40 % probability of > 20 mm/hr
60 % probability of
> 20 mm/hr
40 % Probability of
Threshold exceedance
70 % Probability of
Threshold exceedance
Probabilistic Forecasting
=
Dealing with Reality
…but how to make effective use of
probabilistic forecasts in
crisis management?