Housing Croydon
Our strategy to 2015
Evidence Base
Evidence base
to April 2012
Evidence Base
About the evidence base
1
Evidence base to April 2012
The evidence base sets out data and information to support the development of the
council’s housing strategy. It was written by David Morris, Julia Pitt, Rebecca Clews and
Ola Ogundare in the council’s Housing Strategy Team.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the following people for their contribution to the evidence base:
John Montes
Elaine Wadsworth
Lesley Goodwin
Lesley Roman
Shayne Coulter
Sharron Smail
Judy Pevan
Corrine Masters
Steve Morton
Dominick Mennie
Alan Hiscutt
Nigel Vangrove
Warren Gilbank
Deborah Burrows
Beverley Nomafo
Ian Stone
Fiona Lobo
Adam Ranger
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Evidence base to April 2012
Contents:
About the evidence base ....................................................................................... 7
Legislation .................................................................................................................. 9
Policy .......................................................................................................................... 9
Housing strategy and investment in London ............................................................. 9
Guidance and best practice ..................................................................................... 10
We are Croydon – the vision 2040........................................................................... 11
Supporting strategies and plans .............................................................................. 13
Assessing housing need across all tenures ............................................................14
Demographic drivers of housing need ..................................................................15
Population increase ................................................................................................. 15
Census 2011 ............................................................................................................. 15
Population projections ............................................................................................. 16
Household formation ............................................................................................... 17
Age structure............................................................................................................ 19
Black and minority ethnic population ...................................................................... 21
Gypsies and travellers .............................................................................................. 22
Disabled people ....................................................................................................... 23
Housing affordability ...........................................................................................25
House prices ............................................................................................................. 25
Entry level house prices ........................................................................................... 26
Rents ........................................................................................................................ 27
Local housing allowance ...................................................................................... 28
Private rent – London Rents Map ........................................................................ 29
Local authority rent.............................................................................................. 29
Repossession ............................................................................................................ 30
Mortgage repossessions ...................................................................................... 30
Landlord possessions ........................................................................................... 31
Affordability ............................................................................................................. 32
Affordability of market housing for purchase ..................................................... 32
Affordability of market housing for rent ............................................................. 32
Croydon’s economy ................................................................................................. 32
Employment ......................................................................................................... 34
Occupations ......................................................................................................... 34
Qualifications ....................................................................................................... 35
Earnings ................................................................................................................ 35
Housing needs assessment ...................................................................................... 37
LHMA housing requirement..................................................................................... 38
Key issues: the demographic drivers of housing need ............................................ 38
Key issues: housing affordability.............................................................................. 39
BUILDINGS AND PLACES .......................................................................................41
1. Optimising the supply of new housing ..........................................................41
Housing stock ........................................................................................................... 42
Housing tenure......................................................................................................... 42
Social rented housing ............................................................................................... 43
The impact of the right to buy on social housing .................................................... 44
Spatial distribution of social housing ....................................................................... 44
Private rented housing ............................................................................................. 45
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Evidence base to April 2012
Housing development - all tenures .......................................................................... 45
Housing development in Croydon ........................................................................... 46
New housing completions in Croydon ..................................................................... 46
New housing starts in Croydon ................................................................................ 47
Affordable housing delivery ..................................................................................... 47
Empty homes ........................................................................................................... 48
Future housing requirement ................................................................................ 48
What is our land capacity for housing development? ......................................... 49
Infrastructure – making great places ....................................................................50
Key Issues – Housing stock and tenure ................................................................ 51
Key issues: housing supply ................................................................................... 51
2. Maintaining and improving our existing housing ...........................................52
Decent homes .......................................................................................................... 54
Council housing .................................................................................................... 54
Housing association housing ................................................................................ 55
Private sector housing ......................................................................................... 55
Private sector renewal ............................................................................................. 58
Energy efficiency ...................................................................................................... 59
Fuel poverty ............................................................................................................. 60
HMOs ....................................................................................................................... 63
Housing and health .................................................................................................. 63
Key issues: housing condition............................................................................... 64
3. Customer-focussed housing advice and options ............................................66
Rough sleeping ......................................................................................................... 67
Homelessness........................................................................................................... 69
Homelessness prevention .................................................................................... 69
Homeless decisions and acceptances .................................................................. 69
Reasons for homelessness ................................................................................... 70
Housing waiting list .................................................................................................. 71
Overcrowding and under-occupation .................................................................. 72
Availability of housing for older people ................................................................... 73
Housing supply ......................................................................................................... 74
Key issues: housing need ...................................................................................... 75
4. Achieving independence through housing support ........................................78
Housing related support .......................................................................................... 78
Move on ............................................................................................................... 81
Transformation in adult social care ..................................................................... 81
Home adaptations.................................................................................................... 82
Help with repairs, adaptations and maintenance ............................................... 83
Impact and fit with modern social care practice ..................................................... 83
Key issues: housing support ................................................................................. 84
5. Managing and sustaining great places to live ................................................85
Community safety .................................................................................................... 85
Community engagement ......................................................................................... 88
Community cohesion ........................................................................................... 88
Tenant satisfaction ............................................................................................... 88
Health and wellbeing ............................................................................................... 89
Deprivation and worklessness ................................................................................. 91
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Evidence base to April 2012
Vulnerable people and deprivation ......................................................................... 91
Children and young people ...................................................................................... 92
Housing management service – the key figures ...................................................... 93
Key issues: ................................................................................................................ 96
6. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................98
Figures:
Figure 1: Population age profile – London and Croydon (census 2001)...................... 19
Figure 2: Average house prices and sales volumes 1996 to 2011 (Land Registry) ..... 25
Figure 3: Local Authority and Housing Association Rents 1998-2011 (£pw)............... 29
Figure 4: Mortgage Possession Actions - England & Wales, 1990 to 2012 Qtr1 ......... 30
Figure 5: Landlord Possession Actions – England & Wales, 1999 to 2011 Qtr4 .......... 31
Figure 6: CACI PayCheck 2008 household income distribution – Croydon ................. 37
Figure 7: Council housing stock and right to buy sales 2000 to 2012 ........................ 44
Figure 8: Social housing distribution in Croydon (Census 2001) ................................ 45
Figure 9: Housebuilding England 1946-2010 .............................................................. 46
Figure 10: Distribution of long-term empty homes, 2010 .......................................... 48
Figure 11: the location of future housing development in Croydon ........................... 50
Figure 12: Percentage of non-decent homes .............................................................. 54
Figure 13: Non-decent private sector homes as a percentage of all dwellings .......... 57
Figure 14: Private sector renewal assistance 2007-2011 ............................................ 58
Figure 15: Fuel Poverty in private sector dwellings – Croydon Wards (BRE study
2008) ............................................................................................................................ 61
Figure 16: Fuel poverty among vulnerable households ............................................. 62
Figure 17: Average NI 187 values for Croydon by tenure 2008/09 and 2009/10 ...... 63
Figure 18: Links between housing conditions and public health................................. 64
Figure 19: Housing need in Croydon 2004/05 to 2011/12 .......................................... 74
Figure 20: Housing supply in Croydon 2004/05 to 2011/12 ........................................ 75
Figure 21: All age, all cause mortality rates, Croydon LSOA 2002-2007 ..................... 90
Figure 22: IMD 2004 and 2007, Croydon .................................................................... 92
Tables:
Table 1: Census 2001 population for England, London and Croydon ........................ 15
Table 2: ONS Sub-national population projections 2010-based ................................. 16
Table 3: GLA London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections - Update 01-2010 .... 16
Table 4: Census 2001 Croydon – Household types (ONS) ........................................... 17
Table 5: Household projections to 2016 (ONS) ........................................................... 17
Table 6: London household projections (thousands) (GLA) ........................................ 18
Table 7: Croydon household projections (thousands) (GLA) ....................................... 18
Table 8: Croydon population projections by age to 2018 and 2028 (ONS) ................. 19
Table 9: Croydon BME population projections to 2031 (GLA)..................................... 22
Table 10: Estimates for the Shortfall in Croydon Supply of Wheelchair Homes in the
Public and Private Sectors by April 2011. .................................................................... 24
Table 11: Average (median) house prices 2001-2012 (Land Registry) ........................ 25
Table 12: Lower quartile house prices 2000-2012 (CLG Live Tables 582 and 583) ..... 26
Table 13: Ratio of lower quartile earnings to lower quartile house prices (CLG) ....... 27
Table 14: Croydon minimum and average house prices 2012 (2002 in brackets) ...... 27
Table 15: English Housing Survey 2010-11 (Full household sample) .......................... 28
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Evidence base to April 2012
Table 16: Inner and outer London LHA rates, April 2012 (VOA).................................. 28
Table 17: Croydon private rents recorded between April 11 and March 12 (VOA) .... 29
Table 18: Minimum household income required to purchase an entry level property
(2012) ........................................................................................................................... 32
Table 19: London Rents Map August 2012 - annual income required ........................ 32
Table 20: Resident Labour Force Projections (GLA).................................................... 34
Table 21: Economically active people in Croydon 2011/12 (nomis) ........................... 34
Table 22: Economically inactive people wanting a job 2004-2012 (NOMIS)............... 34
Table 23: Croydon Employment Sectors April 2011 to March 2012 (NOMIS) ............ 35
Table 24: Qualifications 2011 (ONS) ............................................................................ 35
Table 25: Croydon and London median and lower quartile full time earnings 20042011 ............................................................................................................................. 36
Table 26: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 .......................................... 38
Table 27: Housing tenure (Census) .............................................................................. 43
Table 28: Croydon dwelling stock (ELASH and HCA SDR returns ) .............................. 43
Table 29: Net additions to the dwelling stock ............................................................. 46
Table 30: House building - New dwellings completed 2004/5 to 2011/12 ................. 47
Table 31: House building - New dwellings started 2004/5 to 2011/12 ....................... 47
Table 32: Affordable housing completions 2006-2012 ............................................... 47
Table 33: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031 .......................................... 49
Table 34: Decent Homes – Croydon 2011/12 .............................................................. 55
Table 35: Decent Homes – expenditure to make all dwellings decent (2011) ............ 55
Table 36: Housing conditions: reasons for failing decent homes, England, 2008 ....... 56
Table 37: Fuel Poverty by Tenure (BRE 2008).............................................................. 62
Table 38: Rough Sleeping Statistics England - Autumn 2010 and Autumn 20111: total2
of rough sleeping counts3 and estimates4, by region .................................................. 67
Table 39: Rough sleeping counts and estimates 2011 ................................................ 68
Table 40: Homelessness decisions and acceptances, 2002 to 2012............................ 69
Table 41: Housing register, April 2006, April 2011 and April 2012 ............................. 71
Table 42: Supporting People client groups – estimates of populations at risk and
populations in need ..................................................................................................... 79
Table 43: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through
community-based services, 2007/08 to 2009/10 ........................................................ 81
Table 44: Predicted population of older people and people with disabilities, Croydon,
2010, 2015 and 2020 ................................................................................................... 82
Table 45: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through
community-based services, 2007/08 to 2010/11 ........................................................ 83
Table 46: Criminal offences 1999-2012 - Croydon ...................................................... 86
Table 47: Offences – Croydon (Met Police Crime Figures) .......................................... 86
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Evidence base to April 2012
ABOUT THE EVIDENCE BASE
A local authority is required by statute1 to produce a housing strategy setting out its
plans for housing and housing services in the area. This document sets the key issues
and challenges for Croydon’s housing strategy over the next five years. It looks at the
development of housing policy, how this has shaped the context in which we operate
and the likely policy landscape we will face in the short to medium term. It draws on
a range of data and information, taken from national and local sources and
anticipates future trends in housing need so that we can incorporate in our strategy
a set of responses to address those needs.
To present a consistent set of information the evidence base is referenced, as far as
possible, to 1st April 2012, the end of the financial year 2011/12.
We will update the evidence base annually providing detail on the events or policies
that have had a significant impact on the data or any of the key issues.
Our consultation on and development of the housing strategy includes a
consideration of the information in the evidence base, to ensure that we have
gathered the right information, drawn the correct conclusions, and given sufficient
weight to the issues highlighted. As far as possible, therefore, we have attempted to
set out the information in some detail in order to allow scrutiny and challenge.
Data sources are referenced throughout the document. A central source of
information about the need for housing is the local housing market assessment,
undertaken on the council’s behalf by Opinion Research Services and based on a
range of available secondary data. The methodology for the assessment closely
followed guidance from the department for Communities and Local Government and
the full report can be found at the following link:
http://www.croydon.gov.uk/contents/departments/planningandregeneration/pdf/9
12686/917223/localhousingmarketassessment.
The findings are fundamental to the plans set out in our local development
framework core strategy for a major housing-led regeneration programme in the
borough which will take place over the next 20 years. The information arising from
the assessment has been supplemented with local information taken from our
housing waiting list which, although not intended as a comprehensive measure of
need, nevertheless tells us much about the people who are currently experiencing
need and, importantly, about the people to whom the council has statutory duties to
assist under housing legislation.
Of prime importance in assessing the need for housing in the future are demographic
trends – changes in the number of people and households, and in household size and
type. Previous editions of the evidence base have relied heavily on Greater London
Authority population projections; however, this edition is fortunate to have had
access to new census 2011 data and has taken a fresh look at demographic trends in
the light of this information.
1
Section 87 of the Local Government Act 2003.
7
Evidence base to April 2012
It is also a time of great change – the prolonged economic slowdown, continuing
plans to reduce government debt and restrictions on lending, most significantly for
housing mortgage lending, have all had an impact on the housing market and the
economic and housing circumstances of local communities. The coalition
government’s reform of housing and welfare policy are having a major impacts on
both housing demand and supply. Regular monitoring of the impact of these
developments, in particular through changes in housing need presenting itself to the
council and its partners, will be vital in helping us to review and update the housing
strategy and in ensuring that we continue to respond comprehensively, sensitively
and fairly to local people.
The evidence base is set out as follows:
The evidence base first looks at housing need and sets out the main findings of the
council’s local housing market assessment
Section 1 then optimising the supply of new housing in Croydon summaries our plans
for the delivery of the infrastructure required to support the level of growth
envisaged.
Section 2 looks at making the best use of our existing housing through examining the
extent and severity of poor housing conditions, the number of empty homes, fuel
poverty energy efficiency and the range of programmes in place to tackle these
issues
Section 3 looks at meeting housing needs from tackling rough sleeping, provisions for
homeless households, homelessness prevention and allocating council and housing
associations to households in housing need. It also looks at the supply of affordable
housing available for allocation in terms of its extent and size mix.
Section 4 looks at the commissioning of housing support and links to social care
provision for vulnerable households
Section 5 looks at the issues that affect the different neighbourhoods and
communities in Croydon, including crime and anti-social behaviour, deprivation and
health, and how improvements in housing management and community
engagement contribute to improving a wide range of outcomes.
A summary of the principal issues derived from the evidence base, and addressed in
the housing strategy, is provided at the end of each section.
Enquiries about this document should be made to the housing strategy team in the
department of adult services, health by emailing [email protected] or
by phoning 020 8726 6100 extension 60539.
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Evidence base to April 2012
Legislation
Local authorities are required by statute to produce a range of plans including a
sustainable community strategy, and plans required for local development2. They
are also required to prepare and publish a housing strategy under the Local
Government Act 20033.
The Greater London Authority Act requires the Mayor of London to prepare and
publish a London Housing Strategy4 and local housing strategies produced by London
borough councils are required to be in “general conformity” with it5. The Mayor
published guidance on “general conformity” with the London Housing Strategy in
February 2010.
Policy
The focus of government policy concerning housing strategy has relaxed over the
past twenty years, moving from tight central regulation of the content and
publication of housing strategies directly linked to the allocation of central
government funding, towards a focus on the delivery the strategic housing role.
Housing was seen as a key element of the previous Labour government’s sustainable
communities’ policy through its contribution to place shaping and in 2007 local
authorities were given “discretion about how, when, and in what format they
document their refreshed housing strategy.’6
The coalition government continues to see local authorities playing a lead role in
housing strategy, however with less central government control and with more
powers and responsibilities provided to local neighbourhoods and communities in
making decisions about housing. The government’s housing strategy for England Laying the Foundations7 sets out a range of financial measures designed to have an
immediate impact on the housing market, alongside a number of strategic reforms
to the planning system, regulation and finance to provide long-term stability and
enable an increase housing supply.
Housing strategy and investment in London
The first statutory London Housing Strategy was published in February 2010 and the
Mayor also published a new Transport Strategy8 and Economic Development
Strategy9 in May 2010. 10. In July 2011 the new London Plan11 was published.
The Mayor’s London Housing Strategy aims to raise aspirations and opportunities, to
improve the quality of life and to ensure the capital’s housing investment strategy
becomes a “platform for success”. The Mayor’s strategic housing priorities are:
2
See section 6 of the Local Government Act 2000
Section 87 Local Government Act 2003
4
Section 28, Greater London Authority Act 2007, inserting a new Section 333A into the GLA Act 1999.
5
Section 28, Greater London Authority Act 2007, inserting a new Section 333D into the GLA Act 1999
6 Paragraph 3.17 Creating Strong, Safe and Prosperous Communities- Statutory Guidance, CLG (July 2008)
7
Laying the Foundations – A Housing Strategy for England, HM Government November 2011
8 http://www.london.gov.uk/publication/mayors-transport-strategy
9 http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Economic-Development-Strategy.pdf
10 London Housing Strategy, GLA (2010).
11 http://www.london.gov.uk/priorities/planning/londonplan
3
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Evidence base to April 2012
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tackling affordability,
developing more opportunities for first time buyers to access homeownership,
providing more social and private rented homes,
improving the design and sustainability of new homes, and
optimising delivery through devolution of responsibility and powers to London
boroughs with the commitment and capacity to produce agreed levels of
housing.
The Localism Act 2011 made the Mayor of London directly responsible for spatial
strategy and housing investment in London12.
The Mayor has published proposals for a revised London Housing Strategy
addressing the impact of London's housing budget, the 'Affordable Rent' model and
the government’s social housing reforms on the delivery of affordable housing for
Londoners. A consultation document, A Revised London Housing Strategy – Initial
Proposals13, was published for consultation with the London residents, local
authorities and others in December 2011 with responses required by 6 March 2012.
Guidance and best practice
There is no published statutory guidance on preparing and publishing a housing
strategy. The coalition government’s approach has been to refrain from publishing
“top down” guidance directions and targets as far as possible, and instead to rely on
local authorities to listening to and work with local communities when making local
housing decisions. There are a number of plans and policies that provide valuable
information on how best to approach delivering the strategic housing role.
The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) published in March 2012 replaced a
large number of key planning documents including Planning Policy Statement 3 on
housing. The NPPF defines affordable housing as follows:
“Affordable housing: Social rented, affordable rented and intermediate housing,
provided to eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Eligibility
is determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices. Affordable
housing should include provisions to remain at an affordable price for future
eligible households or for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable
housing provision.
Social rented housing is owned by local authorities and private registered providers
(as defined in section 80 of the Housing and Regeneration Act 2008), for which
guideline target rents are determined through the national rent regime. It may
also be owned by other persons and provided under equivalent rental
arrangements to the above, as agreed with the local authority or with the Homes
and Communities Agency.
Affordable rented housing is let by local authorities or private registered providers
of social housing to households who are eligible for social rented housing.
12
13
Section 162 of the Localism bill
http://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Revised%20Housing%20Strategy%20proposals.pdf
10
Evidence base to April 2012
Affordable Rent is subject to rent controls that require a rent of no more than 80%
of the local market rent (including service charges, where applicable).
Intermediate housing is homes for sale and rent provided at a cost above social
rent, but below market levels subject to the criteria in the Affordable Housing
definition above. These can include shared equity (shared ownership and equity
loans), other low cost homes for sale and intermediate rent, but not affordable
rented housing.
Homes that do not meet the above definition of affordable housing, such as “low
cost market” housing, may not be considered as affordable housing for planning
purposes.”
We are Croydon – the vision 2040
In 2008/09 Croydon's Strategic Partnership agreed to develop a new long-term
vision for Croydon. The aim of the visioning process was to work with the
community to develop a single, integrated vision for the borough through to 2040.
Over the eight month engagement programme 20,000 people contributed to
developing a clear vision of the type of place Croydon has the potential to become.
The vision is for Croydon to be:
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An enterprising city
A learning city
A creative city
A connected city
A sustainable city
A caring city
The vision offers an ambitious, compelling vision of what Croydon has the potential
to achieve by 2040. It describes an enterprising city, a place of opportunity where
anyone can achieve their potential as well as a place where people can find a sense
of belonging and a connection with the natural environment. It provides the
overarching direction and purpose for Croydon’s strategic policy framework.
The housing strategy contributes to the achievement of the vision for Croydon in the
following ways:

11
A place of opportunity: well designed, spacious, adaptable housing provides a
stable platform for positive physical and mental health, future prosperity and
social inclusion. For example “housing”:
o Provides affordable rented and intermediate housing and low cost home
ownership
o Tackles worklessness through various projects including Broadening Horizons
(and its successors), DOWL and through partnership working with other
agencies such as Job Centre Plus
o Provides opportunities to get onto the housing ladder through the right to
buy, the Assisted Private Purchase Scheme (APPS) and other home
Evidence base to April 2012
ownership initiatives
o Enables mobility through mutual exchanges and other mobility schemes

A place of belonging: well designed, connected and supported places and
communities provide somewhere people want to live and work, to put down
roots, and become regarded and valued as places that have everything you need
to lead a fulfilled happy life. For example “housing” provides:
o Resident engagement in the design and delivery of services through tenant
participation activities, supporting and consulting with tenant associations,
the tenant and leaseholder panel, resident involvement, consultation and
engagement events
o Support and resettlement services for vulnerable households including exoffenders, people leaving hospital, people recovering from substance misuse
and refugees
o Support for vulnerable tenants to help sustain their tenancies
o Supported housing and floating support to help people live independently for
longer including handy-person services, aids and adaptations and Careline.

A sustainable place: buildings designed with purpose and efficiency in mind, that
use water and fuel economically, that put something back through using sun,
wind, and reusing water and heat and that encourage a greener behaviour and
outlook through their connection to streetscapes and greener public spaces and
buildings. For example “housing” provides:
o Socially sustainable places by enabling families to stay in same area, tackling
acute housing need including homelessness and rough sleeping
o Lifetime homes designed to allow easy adaptation throughout peoples’ lives
together with adaptations enabling people to live independently in their own
homes for longer
o Domestic energy efficiency through modernisation of homes and loans for
homeowners, cutting fuel bills as well as reducing harmful emissions, and
promotion of environment-friendly lifestyles through recycling facilities or
advice

A caring city: good quality housing management, need and support services
linked to care and health help households in housing need, through appropriate
accommodation, to recover and regain positive physical and health become
socially included and become enabled to live healthy lives and make a positive
contribution. For example, “housing” provides:
o Services to meet housing need including providing accommodation for
homeless households and helping overcrowded households and those
occupying unfit and unsuitable housing move to more suitable housing
o Housing support to assist vulnerable households to live independently and
tenancy support for tenants who need it
o Enforcement services to tackle hate crime and anti-social behaviour in
partnership with the Police
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Evidence base to April 2012
Supporting strategies and plans
Croydon’s strategic policy framework is supported by a wide range of detailed
strategies and plans covering different aspects of the council’s functions and
responsibilities. A number of these detailed strategies are directly relevant to the
delivery of the strategic housing role and are referred to in the evidence base
including:
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13
Core strategy
Infrastructure delivery plan
Homelessness strategy
Overcrowding strategy
Supporting people strategy
Older people’s housing strategy
Crime and disorder reduction strategy
Economic development strategy
Health and wellbeing plan
Evidence base to April 2012
ASSESSING HOUSING NEED ACROSS ALL TENURES
Local authorities have a longstanding statutory duty to “consider housing conditions
in their district and the needs of the district with respect to the provision of further
housing accommodation.”14 The duty stretches back to the 19th century along with
responsibilities to identify and tackle unfit housing and appoint an Officer of
Health15. Housing needs assessments support and justify decisions about housing,
from individual planning applications to strategic plans setting out the extent and
nature of future housing development.
Housing assessments should be robust, credible and stand up to scrutiny.
Government guidance on how best to assess housing needs has changed over the
past ten years and currently focuses on the longer term demographic and
affordability factors that influence how markets operate, recognising the dynamic
and complex nature of housing markets, contrasting with the previous approach that
made a detailed year on year analysis of changes in the number of households
occupying unsuitable housing.
What have our previous assessments told us? Our 2006 the housing strategy
evidence base identified household growth, declining household size and the growth
in the proportion of lone parents, older people and BME households within the
boroughs population as key drivers of household growth. The Mayor of London’s
2010 housing strategy evidence base 16 also identified population growth and the
growth in the proportion of one person households as the key issues for housing in
London. High house prices and rents in comparison to household income is the key
issue for affordability set out in the 2006 evidence base and the Mayor’s 2010
evidence base.
This section of the evidence base first looks at the demographic drivers of housing
need including data from the 2001 and the first release of data from the 2011
census. It uses mid-year population estimates and trends in household formation
and examines their likely impact on future demand for housing in the borough. An
analysis of housing affordability follows, which includes some background
information on the socio-economic characteristics of the borough. It concludes with
the main findings of the 2008 Local Housing Market Assessment, which is the most
recent and detailed analysis of housing need in the borough, and a summary of the
key issues for the housing strategy.
14
Section 8 of the Housing Act 1985, Section 91 the Housing Act 1957 and Section 1 of the Housing,
Town Planning, &c. Act 1919.
15
See Sections 4 and 5 of the Artizans and Labourers Dwellings Act 1868.
16
Housing in London, Mayor of London (2010) (published as a draft for consultation in November
2008);
14
Evidence base to April 2012
DEMOGRAPHIC DRIVERS OF HOUSING NEED
Population increase
The 2001 census found the population of Croydon to be 330,58717, an increase of
5.6% since the 1991 census. In 2001 Croydon was London’s most populous borough,
as it was in 1991. Croydon’s population growth since 1991, however, has been
relatively slow compared to boroughs like Tower Hamlets and Camden that have
seen increases well into double figures.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2010 mid-year estimate for 2010 put
Croydon’s population at 345,600 people; with 21% of the population aged less than
16 years of age, 64% of working age and 15% of pensionable age18. Table 1 below
shows the populations of England, London and Croydon at 2001 and estimated in
201019. Population estimates identified international migration as the primary
factor in population increase in England since the 2001 census; however, from 2008
natural change (births minus deaths) became the primary driver of population
growth for the first time in nearly a decade. In Croydon over the five years to 2010
the most significant contributor to population growth has been natural change (the
difference between live births and deaths) and international migration20. Figure 1
below shows the contributors to population growth in Croydon from 2006 to 2010.
Table 1: Census 2001 population for England, London and Croydon
England
London
2001
49,138,831
7,172,091
2010
52,234,000
7,825,200
Croydon
330,587
345,600
Census 2011
The 2011 census found that Croydon’s population was 363,400 residents which
confirms it as London’s largest borough by population, with 7,000 more people than
the next largest local authority. Croydon's population has grown at a faster rate than
the rest of England. Over the last ten years Croydon has seen an increase of 32,813
people since the 2001 census (330,587) which represents a 10% increase, 2.9
percent points higher than the national average.
Note: The April 2013 housing strategy evidence base will update the following
sections on population projections, households, age, BME, gypsies and travellers,
disability with data released from the 2011 census. The paragraphs below set out
data and projections based on the 2001 census.
17
18
19
20
ONS Census 2001
2010 Mid-Year Population Estimate – Table 8, ONS
ONS Census 2001 and 2010 mid year rounded.
Mid-Year Population Estimates Analysis Tool, ONS 2009.
15
Evidence base to April 2012
Population projections
The 2011 census shows that there are 13,600 more people living in Croydon than
had previously been estimated in the 2011 'rolled over population figures' (based on
the 2001 census). The 2011 projections (based on the 2001 census) estimated the
population to grow by 4.4% from 2001 (up to 349,800), but the actual growth from
the 2001 census is 9.9% (8.4% growth on the 2001 mid year estimates).
Despite this underestimate the most recent population estimates still provide useful
information for estimating housing need over the next twenty years. The 2010 subnational population projections published in March 2012 expect London’s
population to grow by 14% between 2010 and 20120. Croydon’s population is
expected to increase by 22,000 from 341,200 to 363,60021 between 2008 and 2018.
The projections do not, however, take into account any information from the 2011
census.
Table 2 below shows the projected populations for England, London and Croydon to
2020.
Table 2: ONS Sub-national population projections 2010-based
England
London
Croydon
2010
52,213,000
7,950,000
2018
56,607,000
9,083,000
347,000
382,600
The GLA published detailed borough level demographic projections in January 2010
covering population, households and resident labour force to support the draft
revised London Plan and other strategies. These projections expect London’s
population to increase by 1.07 million between 2011 and 2031, equivalent to nearly
14%. Croydon’s population is projected to increase from 334,500 in 2006 to 352,300
in 2016 (17,800 more people)22. Table 3 sets out the GLA’s population projections
below.
Table 3: GLA London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections - Update 01-2010
London
Outer London
Croydon
2006
7,526,900
4,545,500
334,500
2016
8,079,500
4,795,900
352,300
2021
8,346,800
4,923,500
361,300
2031
8,868,700
5,172,800
379,400
The GLA Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) 2011
population projections23 published in January 2012 estimate that Croydon’s
population will grow to 384, 876 by 2021 which is significantly higher than the
previous borough projections.
21
ONS 2008 Subnational population projections
The London Plan: Borough Demographic Projections, GLA, (Jan 2010)
23
Population Projections 2011 Round, SHLAA, High Fertility, Borough SYA, GLA (Jan 2012)
22
16
Evidence base to April 2012
Household formation
The 2001 census found that the proportion of family households in England had
decreased between 1991 and 2001, from 70.6% to 67.0%, a drop of 3.6%. This
decrease was offset by a 3.9% increase in the proportion of one-person households
over the same period. The proportion of single people within the population
increased from 27% to 33% between 1991 and 200124. The growing trend in people
living alone accounted for much of the increase in the overall number of households
and, as a result, a decrease in the average household size.
In 2001 there were 138,999 households living in Croydon, of which 33% were one
person households, 13% were lone parent households and 32% were households
with dependent children. Table 4 below sets out the number of household types in
England, London and Croydon found in the 2001 census.
Table 4: Census 2001 Croydon – Household types (ONS)
Croydon
London
England
138,999
3,015,997
20,451,427
Married couple household with dependent child(ren)
25,867
507,512
3,792,961
Married couple household with no dependent child(ren)
31,562
602,194
5,881,571
Cohabiting couple household with dependent child(ren)
4,250
82,184
694,017
Cohabiting couple household with no dependent child(ren)
7,242
201,295
1,175,109
14,014
267,323
1,458,745
All Households
Lone parent household with dependent child(ren)
Lone parent household with no dependent child(ren)
One person household
Multi person household: All student
Multi person household: All other
5,206
119,579
682,457
46,069
1,046,888
6,150,264
71
13,105
75,304
4,718
175,917
540,999
According to the ONS, by 2018 the number of households living in Croydon is
expected to increase to 157,000, an increase of 18,000 households since 2001.
Table 5 shows the number of households in England, London and Croydon in 2001
and the projected numbers at 2006 and 2018.
Table 5: Household projections to 2016 (ONS)25
2001
2006
England
20,451,427
21,515,000
London
3,015,997
3,178,000
Croydon
139,000
143,000
2018
24,108,000
3,606,000
157,000
GLA household projections estimate the average household size in London will
decrease from 2.337 to 2.284 between 2006 and 2016 and one-person households
will account for the majority of household growth. Married couples are the only
household type projected to decline, with the loss being more than compensated by
24
National Statistician’s Annual Article on the population: a Demographic Review, ONS (2008)
25
Table 406: Household estimates and projections by district, England, 1991- 2033 (CLG)
17
Evidence base to April 2012
the increase in cohabiting couples. Table 6 below sets out the detailed household
projections for London to 201626.
Table 6: London household projections (thousands) (GLA)
Married couples
Cohabiting couples
Lone parents
Other (2+ adults)
One person
Total
Average household size
2001 %
1115.7 36.75%
261.7
8.62%
274.6
9.04%
332.1 10.94%
1052 34.65%
3036.1
2.39
2006
1039.9
333.7
317.3
340.7
1149
3180.6
2.337
%
32.70%
10.49%
9.98%
10.71%
36.13%
2016
916.2
456.8
373
378
1372.7
3496.7
2.284
%
26.20%
13.06%
10.67%
10.81%
39.26%
These projections suggest the number of one person households in Croydon will
increase to more than 60,000, an increase of 14,000 between 2001 and 2016.
Between 1991 and 2001 the proportion of lone parents more than doubled from
4.3% to 9% and GLA projections suggest there will be 26,100 (16%) lone parent
households in Croydon by 2016, an increase of 6,900 between 2001 and 2016. Both
of these projections have implications for the need for affordable housing.
The latest household projections statistical release from the CLG published in
November 2010 estimates the number of households in England will increase to 27.5
million in 2033, an increase of 5.8 million (27 per cent) over 200827. The increase in
one person households makes up two-thirds of the overall increase in households.
By 2033, 19% of the household population is projected to live alone, compared with
14 per cent in 2008. By 2033, 33 per cent of households will be headed by those
aged 65 or over, up from 26 per cent in 2008. The 2008-based projections show a
lower growth in households compared with the 2006-based projections, equating to
20,500 fewer households per year between 2008 and 2031 in England.
Table 7 below sets out the GLA Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment
(SHLAA) 2011 household projections28 published in February 2012 which estimates
that the number of households will grow to 164, 900 by 2021.
Table 7: Croydon household projections (thousands) (GLA)29
Couple households
Lone parents
One person
Other (2+ adults)
Total
2011 %
66.4
8.62%
17.5
9.04%
57.4 10.94%
8.4 34.65%
149.7
2016
67.3
19.6
63.6
7.8
158.3
%
10.49%
9.98%
10.71%
36.13%
2021
67.5
21.5
68.7
7.2
164.9
%
13.06%
10.67%
10.81%
39.26%
Decreasing household size and the increase in one person households are significant
issues for the housing strategy, affecting the size and type of dwellings needed in the
borough. The projected increase in households less likely to be able to afford market
26
DMAG Update 01-2010 Borough Projections for the London Plan.
Household Projections, 2008 to 2033, England (CLG) November 2010
28
Household Population Projections 2011 Round, SHLAA, High Fertility, Borough SYA, GLA (Feb 2012)
29
2011 round SHLAA based household projections - standard fertility variant, GLA (Feb 2012)
27
18
Evidence base to April 2012
housing, particularly lone parent households will affect the mix of market and
affordable housing required.
Age structure
Figure 1 below shows the age profile of the Croydon and London population
compared to the UK average (shown by the blue line). Croydon has a different age
structure to the UK average with a higher proportion of people aged 25-29, 30-34,
35-39, 40-44 and young children.
Figure 1: Population age profile – London and Croydon (census 2001)
Croydon population age profile (Census
2001
London population age profile (Census
2001)
Nationally, between 1983 and 2008 the proportion of people aged 65 and over
increased slightly to 16%30. However, the number in the oldest age categories (aged
85 and over) doubled from 0.6 million to 1.3 million. By 2033 the proportion of
people aged 65 and over will increase to 23%, and the proportion of people aged
over 85 will double again to 3.3 million representing 5% of the population. The
proportion of the population aged between 16 and 64, however, is expected to fall
from 65 per cent to 59 per cent.
ONS sub-national population projections show how the age structure of Croydon’s
population will change between 2008 and 2018. In 2008, 16% of the population of
England was estimated to be aged 65 and over, and 13% in Croydon. It is expected
over the ten years to 2018 the proportion or people aged 65 and over will increase
to 18% in England. In Croydon the increase is slightly less to only to 14%. Table 8
below shows Croydon’s population projection to 2028 broken down by age.
Table 8: Croydon population projections by age to 2018 and 2028 (ONS31)
Age range
2008
2018
2028
0-4
30
31
,000s
%
,000s
%
,000s
%
24.0
7.03%
25.0
6.88%
25.7
6.63%
Page 1 of the National Statistician’s article above, ONS (2008).
2008-based Subnational Population Projections (quinary age groups, persons (ONS).
19
Evidence base to April 2012
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-90
90+
All ages
20.7
21.7
22.1
21.3
24.7
25.1
27.3
29.0
26.4
21.1
17.8
16.4
12.2
10.6
8.5
6.4
4.1
2.0
341.2
6.07%
6.36%
6.48%
6.24%
7.24%
7.36%
8.00%
8.50%
7.74%
6.18%
5.22%
4.81%
3.58%
3.11%
2.49%
1.88%
1.20%
0.59%
100%
24.4
23.0
19.4
20.1
27.6
28.2
25.9
25.2
26.4
27.2
23.2
17.3
13.8
12.6
9.2
7.3
4.7
3.1
363.6
6.71%
6.33%
5.34%
5.53%
7.59%
7.76%
7.12%
6.93%
7.26%
7.48%
6.38%
4.76%
3.80%
3.47%
2.53%
2.01%
1.29%
0.85%
100.00%
25.1
24.2
22.8
20.9
25.1
27.4
29.1
28.4
25.8
24.5
23.8
22.5
18.2
13.5
10.8
9.2
5.8
4.9
387.7
6.47%
6.24%
5.88%
5.39%
6.47%
7.07%
7.51%
7.33%
6.65%
6.32%
6.14%
5.80%
4.69%
3.48%
2.79%
2.37%
1.50%
1.26%
100.00%
The projected change in the age profile of Croydon’s population has significant
implications for the provision of older people’s housing, housing design and the
provision of housing support including aids and adaptations. An important part of
housing strategy is to ensure there is an adequate mix of housing and that
appropriate steps are taken to relieve any housing pressures including those
resulting from an ageing population. Improving energy efficiency and relieving fuel
poverty are also important as thousands of people aged 65 and over die
unnecessarily in the winter months, often because they cannot afford to heat their
homes and are more susceptible to illnesses caused by cold and damp. For every
additional winter death it is estimated there are also around 8 admissions to
20
Evidence base to April 2012
hospital, 32 visits to outpatient care and 30 social services calls putting extra
pressure on health services32.
Black and minority ethnic population
One significant change to Croydon’s population between 1991 and 2001 was the
increase in the proportion of people belonging to black and minority ethnic (BME)
groups. The 2001 Census increased the number of ethnic categories collected which
makes direct comparisons with 1991 difficult. However, in 2001 over a third of
(36%) of Croydon’s population classified themselves as belonging to a BME group
including 6.5% of the population classified as white, but not white British. This is
similar to the proportion for London (40%) but significantly more than England
nationally (13%).
BME households tend to be overrepresented in social housing; however, there are
considerable differences between different ethnic groups. Bangladeshi and black
African householders are more likely to live in social rented housing than Indian or
Chinese households33. Significantly for housing need, large and single parent
households are more common among some BME groups than the white British
population and are more likely to be in poverty and be unable to satisfy their
housing needs in the housing market. The demographic and socio-economic factors
that affect BME households’ housing needs are interconnected:
“…education, immigration patterns and employment rates influence income, while
demographic patterns determine the dependency ratio within a household. Poverty is
a main factor pushing people to social sector housing. Large families are harder to
support on the basis of income alone, and families with only one earner tend to have
below average incomes.”34
The BME population’s age profile is younger than the general population35. Fertility
rates, household size and the age of first time mothers affect the demographic
characteristics of an ethnic group and predispose some to poverty and housing
need. Caribbean women tend to have children earlier and Caribbean ethnic groups
have lower rates of marriage and partnership and a high prevalence of single
parenthood36. South Asian groups have higher rates of marriage at an earlier age,
higher fertility rates and larger families on average and this pattern is particularly
found in the Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnic groups. Another feature of South
Asian households is older relatives (mothers) living with their sons contributing to
the larger than average household size.
GLA population projections estimate the BME population in Croydon will increase
from less than 30% (100,200) in 2001 to a predicted 45% (161,200) in 2016, an
increase of 61,000 since 2001. Croydon is predicted to be one of eight London
32
Age UK http://www.ageuk.org.uk/get-involved/campaign/preventing-winter-deaths/
ODPM (2005) Housing in England 2003/4 (London: ONS); Census 2001.
34 Understanding demographic, spatial and economic impacts on future affordable housing demand, Cambridge
Centre for Housing and Planning Research, University of Cambridge (December 2007)
35 Census 2001 BME groups represent 8% of population overall, but 18% of 16-24 year olds.
36 Berthoud, R. (2005) Family Formation in Multi-Cultural Britain: Three Patterns of Disadvantage (Cambridge:
Cambridge University press).
33
21
Evidence base to April 2012
boroughs by 2031 to have BME populations making up more than 50 per cent of the
total population. Table 9 below shows the projected increases in different ethnic
groups in Croydon between 2001 and 2031.
Total
White
Black Caribbean
Black African
Black Other
Indian
Pakistani
Bangladeshi
Other Asian
Chinese
Other
BME (number)
BME (%)
Table 9: Croydon BME population projections to 2031 (GLA)37
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
,000s
%
2001
335.5
235.3
26.4
14.9
9.6
21.6
7.6
1.8
10.6
2.2
5.5
100
29.9%
2006
334.5
211.6
31.2
20.0
12.1
25.8
9.6
2.3
12.3
1.9
7.6
122
36.7%
2011
343.3
199.6
35.9
24.2
14.5
29.4
11.6
2.7
13.9
1.9
9.6
143.7
41.9%
2016
352.3
191.1
39.9
27.4
16.6
32.6
13.4
3.1
15.2
1.8
11.2
161.2
45.8%
2021
361.3
185.6
43.4
29.8
18.3
35.3
14.9
3.4
16.2
1.8
12.5
175.7
48.6%
2026
370.4
182.8
46.5
31.5
19.8
37.5
16.2
3.7
17.0
1.8
13.5
187.6
50.6%
2031
379.4
181.9
49.1
32.9
21.0
39.4
17.4
4.0
17.5
1.8
14.2
197.5
52.1%
Gypsies and travellers
Romany gypsies and Irish travellers are recognised ethnic groups and like other
members of Croydon’s black and minority ethnic community are protected from
discrimination by the Equality Act 2010. Local authorities are required to assess their
need for housing in the same way that they are required to assess the needs for new
homes for people who live in “bricks and mortar” homes.
There are 19 existing authorised gypsy and traveller pitches in Croydon with an
estimated four households staying on unauthorised sites and 60 people living in
conventional housing.38
The London-wide Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Needs Assessment (GTANA)
was conducted in 2008 covering households on both authorised and unauthorised
sites, and gypsy and traveller families living in conventional housing. The key finding
for Croydon was a need for between 10 and 19 pitches over the period 2007-201739.
The upper range incorporates the needs of households currently in “bricks and
37 DMAG Update 04-2010 -R2008 London Plan Ethnic Group Population Projections – see also
http://www.london.gov.uk/who-runs-london/mayor/publications/society/facts-and-figures/diversity
38
GLA London Borough’s Gypsy and Travellers Accommodation Needs Assessment (March 2008), Table 3.6
39
GLA London Borough’s GTANA (March 2008), Table 12.23
22
Evidence base to April 2012
mortar” accommodation but who have a psychological aversion to conventional
housing.
An informal survey by council officers during 2008 of gypsy and traveller families,
who either lived locally or had close ties with Croydon, broadly supported the
findings of the London GTANA in estimating a local need for up to an additional 20
pitches in the borough.
Croydon has already provided four extra pitches on its existing Latham’s Way site (in
2008), reducing the need for new pitches in the borough. It is unlikely that the new
London Plan will set the London boroughs targets for sites.
Disabled people
There is no single statistic that captures the extent of our disabled population. We
have 51,300 people with a limiting long term illness or disability, which is just below
the national and London average. We have around 6,800 people aged 65 or over
who need support with mobility tasks. Almost 3,900 are blind or partially sighted.
Nearly one in four people aged 65 and over have one or more chronic health
condition, representing 10,900 people. In addition, we know there are:











7930 adults claiming a disability living allowance
6690 adults unable to work due to disability
An estimated 20,857 adults with a moderate or serious physical disability
(PANSI)
An estimated 9612 adults that need some help with personal care (PANSI)
An estimated 7740 adults with some degree of hearing loss (PANSI)
An estimated 141 adults have a serious visual impairment (PANSI)
693 disabled people receiving social care services in the community
86 disabled people living in residential/nursing care
6000 disabled people issued with freedom passes
11,000 people issued with Blue Badges
6500 disabled people using wheelchairs in Croydon
We can estimate the number of people affected by specific disabilities using
information from national organisations on their prevalence. While this data is not
standardised to our population, it nevertheless provides a rough outline of the
numbers of people with different disabilities in Croydon.
23
Evidence base to April 2012
Incidence of disability
Cystic Fibrosis
28
47
850
13816
Motor Neurone Disease
660
Parkinsons Disease
550
3740
Multiple Sclerosis
Rheumatoid Arthritis
Diabetes
Hearing Loss
13750
Sight Loss
Mind the Step: An estimation of housing need among wheelchair users in England40,
published by Habinteg Housing Association and London Southbank University, sets
out national and regional estimates of housing need among wheelchair users. It
provides guidance on how to produce similar estimates at a local authority level.
Applying the Habinteg methodology to Croydon produces an estimate of:


2,780 wheelchair user households living in the borough,
Of which, 500 have unmet housing needs.
The report suggests the following actions would help to reduce unmet need for
adapted housing:



Local authorities should ensure they make the best use of existing accessible
housing (it is estimated that up to 65% of accessible homes end up being
allocated to households without a disability need).
Households should be assisted with “in-situ” solutions wherever practicable e.g.
installing aids and adaptations in the current accommodation to make homes
more suitable.
Building more new homes to accessible standards.
Although there is not a complete list of all accessible housing available in Croydon,
an estimate of the shortfall in supply of wheelchair homes has been carried out and
is set out in Table 10, below broken down into the needs of people who use
wheelchairs inside (wheelchair adapted) and outside (wheelchair accessible).
Table 10: Estimates for the Shortfall in Croydon Supply of Wheelchair Homes in the
Public and Private Sectors by April 2011.
Wheelchair
Indoor
Outdoor
Total
40
Mind the Step: An estimation of housing need among wheelchair users in England40, published by Habinteg
Housing Association and London Southbank University (2010)
24
Evidence base to April 2012
Households
Public Sector
Private Sector
Total
52*
118
170
169
328
497
221
446
667
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
House prices
Over the past ten years average (median) prices in England have increased by 83%
overall. Recent year on year increases, however, have been relatively slow
compared to previous years, and following the credit crunch there were decreases
of 9% in 2008 and 5% in 2010. Table 11 below shows the change in average house
prices over the past twelve years in England, Outer London and Croydon. Average
house prices in Croydon have been between 7% and 19% cheaper than the Outer
London average over the past ten years.
Table 11: Average (median) house prices 2001-2012 (Land Registry)41
England
Outer London
Croydon
2001
£85,000
£130500
£115,000
2002
£97,000
£150,000
£134,725
2003
£123,500
£182,000
£166,950
2004
£141,000
£196,000
£180,000
2005
£155,000
£211,000
£191,000
2006
£160,000
£220,000
£194,500
2007
£170,000
£238,000
£215,000
2008
£175,000
£249,950
£230,000
2009
£159,000
£225,000
£210,000
2010
£185,000
£249,995
£218,000
2011
£175,000
£250,000
£210,000
2012
£178,000
£249,950
£220,000
A feature of the housing market since the credit crunch in 2008 has been a decrease
in sales volumes which have allowed excess demand to force house prices back up
to 2008 levels. Figure 2 below shows the trend in house prices and sales volumes in
Croydon following the credit crunch.
Figure 2: Average house prices and sales volumes 1996 to 2011 (Land Registry)
41
Table 582 Housing market: median house prices based on Land Registry data, by district, from 1996
(quarterly - http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/housing/xls/141395.xls
25
Evidence base to April 2012
Average House Prices and Sales Volumes
1000
300,000
900
250,000
800
200,000
600
500
150,000
Sale Price
Sales volume
700
400
100,000
300
200
100
Av. House prices
Sales volumes
50,000
0
0
Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12
Entry level house prices
Guidance on conducting strategic housing market assessments42 suggests using
lower quartile house prices as the “entry level” for households looking to move into
owner occupation43. Table 12 below shows the change in lower quartile house
prices over the past ten years in England, Outer London and Croydon. Lower
quartile house prices in Croydon have been between 3% and 18% cheaper than
Outer London overall during this period.
Table 12: Lower quartile house prices 2000-2012 (CLG Live Tables 582 and 583)
England
Outer London
Croydon
2001
£55,000
£94,000
£81,000
2002
£60,000
£113,000
£103,000
2003
£76,000
£140,500
£132,500
2004
£94,000
£155,000
£145,000
2005
£107,500
£165,000
£155,000
2006
£116,000
£172,000
£155,000
2007
£124,000
£185,000
£169,950
2008
£124,950
£199,950
£179,000
2009
£112,000
£175,000
£169,996
2010
£122,500
£195,444
£175,000
2011
£120,000
£195,000
£165,150
2012
£125,000
£195,000
£177,000
42
43
Strategic Housing Market Assessments - Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG, (2007) Page 27
Step 3.1 Data Issues Page 26.
26
Evidence base to April 2012
Table 13 below shows the ratio of the lower quartile incomes to the lower quartile
house prices for England, London and Croydon, which is seen as a good indicator of
the affordability of entry level housing. Croydon has seen a similar pattern of growth
with a period of contraction following the credit crunch to that of London overall
over the past ten years. Lower quartile house prices in Croydon are more than eight
times lower quartile earnings and this ratio has nearly doubled over the past ten
years. The most recent figures show the ratio increasing in Croydon, remaining the
same across London as a whole and decreasing nationally.
Table 13: Ratio of lower quartile earnings to lower quartile house prices (CLG)
England
London
Croydon
2000
3.91
5.40
4.76
2001
4.08
6.02
5.45
2002
4.45
6.77
6.45
2003
5.23
7.73
7.93
2004
6.27
8.25
8.36
2005
6.82
8.50
8.97
2006
7.12
8.64
8.53
2007
7.25
9.14
9.35
2008
6.98
9.31
8.96
2009
6.28
8.04
7.96
2010
6.69
8.96
8.05
2011
6.53
8.96
8.21
2012
6.59
8.36 (p)
*(p) Provisional figure
The council’s 2002 housing needs assessment found house prices in Croydon did not
vary significantly across the borough with the exception of four bedroom properties,
where prices at the eastern edge of the borough could vary considerably from the
average. Table 14 below shows the minimum and average house prices by property
size in Croydon produced by the survey uprated by the increase in Land Registry
lower quartile and average (median) prices between 2002 and 201244.
Table 14: Croydon minimum and average house prices 2012 (2002 in brackets)
Minimum Price
Average Price
1 bed
(£94,000) £161,529
(£110,000) £179,630
2 bed
(£122,500) £210,504
(£139,500) £227,803
3 bed
(£163,000) £280,099
(£202,000) £329,866
4 bed
(£190,000) £326,496
(£301,500) £492,349
Rents
According to the English Housing Survey (EHS) nearly seven and a half million
households were renting their homes in 2010–11. The social housing sector
(councils and housing associations) accounted for just over half of these households
44
Source data from CLG Live Tables 582 and 583: Median price increase from £134,725 to £220,000 (63.30%);
and lower quartile from £103,000 and £177,000 (71.84%).
27
Evidence base to April 2012
(51%) and the rest, almost 3.6 million households, rented from private landlords
(48% of all renting)45.
In 2010-11 the average private rented sector weekly rent was nearly twice social
housing rent, £160 compared to £79. This is partly explained by the private rented
sector having a much wider and more varied range of stock and the social sector
having a higher proportion of purpose-built flats. Table 15 shows mean and median
rent levels from the English Housing Survey of 2010-11.
Table 15: English Housing Survey 2010-11 (Full household sample)
2009–10
2010-11
mean
median
mean
median
social rented sector1
£ per week
local authority
71
67
74
69
housing association
79
76
84
78
all social renters
75
72
79
74
private rented sector
£ per week
2
market renters
162
137
163
138
non-market renters paying rent3
136
106
148
115
all with known tenancy type
158
133
161
138
with unknown tenancy type
132
120
145
127
all private renters paying rent
156
133
160
137
Notes:
1) not compatible with previous SEH estimates due to methodological changes
2) with assured or assured shorthold tenancies
3) with private tenancies not available on the open market
Local housing allowance
Rent Officers determine the LHA rates using a list of rents created for each category
of property within every Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA). From April 2011 LHA
rates were calculated using the 30th centile of rents, instead of the mid point as was
the case previously. From April 2012 LHA rates are updated annually instead of
monthly meaning they will remain the same between April 2012 and March 2013.
Croydon is mainly in the outer south London area, however, a small area of North
Croydon is in Inner London46. Table 16 shows LHA rates for the Inner South East
London and Outer South London BRMAs at April 2012.
Table 16: Inner and outer London LHA rates, April 2012 (VOA)
Shared
Inner South East London April 2012
Outer South London 2012
45
£86.54
£78.50
1 Bed
£184.62
£155.77
2 bed
£240.00
£196.15
3 bed
£300.00
£253.85
4 bed
£392.00
£311.54
English Housing Survey Headline Report 2010/11, CLG (February 2012)
46
The following postcodes fall within the Inner South East London BRMA: SE25 6BN, SE25 6BQ, SE25
6DP, SE25 6DU, SE25 6DR, SE25 6DS, SE25 6DT SW16 4AA, SW16 4BT, SW16 4EU, SW16 4AD
postcodes beginning SE19 postcodes beginning SW16 3.
28
Evidence base to April 2012
Private rent – London Rents Map
Table 17 below shows the lower quartile, average and upper quartile rents by
property size in Croydon recorded between April 2011 and March 2012 by the
Valuation Office. The lower quartile rents, which are seen as a good indicator of the
“entry level” to the private rented market47, are between 2% and 15% lower than
median rents.
Table 17: Croydon private rents recorded between April 11 and March 12 (VOA)
Lower quartile
Median
Upper quartile
Room
£81
£92
£104
One bed
£156
£167
£180
Two bed
£196
£213
£219
Three bed
£249
£258
£277
Four + bed
£312
£346
£402
Local authority rent
Local authority rents are substantially lower than rent in the private rented sector as
the English Housing Survey shows above (see Table 15). Over the period 2000/01 to
2011/12 average local authority rents in England have increased by 58%, in London
by 48% and in Croydon by 41%48. Housing association rents are on average slightly
higher than local authority rents and the difference between the two has increased
in Croydon from 6% to 20%. Figure 3 below shows average local authority (LA) and
housing association (RP) rents in Croydon between 1998 and 2011.
Figure 3: Local Authority and Housing Association Rents 1998-2011 (£pw)
47
Strategic Housing Market Assessments - Practice Guidance Version 2, CLG (2007) page 27
Table 701 and Table 702 Rents, lettings and tenancies: Local authority housing average weekly rents
by region(701) and by district (702), DCLG Live Tables.
48
29
Evidence base to April 2012
120.00
100.00
80.00
60.00
Croydon LA
Croydon RP
40.00
20.00
19
98
-9
19 9
99
-0
20 0
00
-0
20 1
01
-0
20 2
02
20
03 0 3
-0
42
20 ,5
04
-0
20 5
05
-0
20 6
06
-0
20 7
07
20 0 8
08
-0
93
20
09
-1
20 0
10
20 -1 1
11
-1
2R
0.00
Repossession
Mortgage repossessions
Mortgage repossessions are an indicator of housing stress. On average there are
around 85,000 mortgage claims issued in England every year49 which represents 4
claims for every 1,000 households. Figure 4 below shows the number of mortgage
possession actions in England and Wales since 1990, and clearly shows significant
spikes in activity in 1992 and 2008.
Figure 4: Mortgage Possession Actions - England & Wales, 1990 to 2012 Qtr1
Between 2004 and 2008 the number of mortgage possession claims in Croydon
increased from 475 in 2001 to a peak of 1,635 in 2006. Since then the number of
49
Annual mortgage possession claims issued in England and Wales 2000-2010 Q4, Ministry of Justice
(2011), average of mortgage claims issued
30
Evidence base to April 2012
possession claims has fallen to 910 in 2009 and in 2010 to 725 reflecting the
introduction of various mortgage support measures and the mortgage pre-action
protocol50. Croydon has had the highest number of mortgage possession claims
issued in London over the ten years from 2001 to 2012, which is consistent with the
size of its population relative to other boroughs, however, the number of mortgage
claims per 1,000 households is also significantly higher than the outer London
average and only consistently exceeded by Barking and Dagenham and Newham.
This suggests a higher proportion of households in Croydon and Barking and
Dagenham and Newham have purchased housing at the upper limit of affordability
and are more vulnerable to the impact of movements in the housing market,
mortgage rates and pressure on household incomes from the wider economy.
Landlord possessions
Landlord repossessions are another indicator of housing stress. There are on
average more than 140,000 landlord possession claims (which includes private and
social landlords) made each year in England, which represents nearly 7 claims per
1,000 households. Figure 5 below shows the number of landlord possession actions
in England and Wales since 1999, and clearly shows a declining trend in activity from
over 30,000 orders in 1999 to less than 20,000 in 2010.
Figure 5: Landlord Possession Actions – England & Wales, 1999 to 2011 Qtr4
In Croydon the number of landlord possession claims issued has decreased from
2,240 in 2003 to 1,665 in 2009. 2010, however, has seen an increase to 1,829 claims
issued and further increases to 2158 in 2011 and 2264 in 2012.
50
UK Housing Review Briefing Paper 2010, Hal Pawson and Steve Wilcox
31
Evidence base to April 2012
Affordability
Affordability of market housing for purchase
Practice guidance on conducting a housing market assessment uses 3.5 times gross
household income for a single earner household or 2.9 times the gross household
income for dual-income households as the upper limit to affordability for purchasing
market housing. Table 18 below shows the minimum income required to purchase
entry level market housing shown in Table 13 above.
Table 18: Minimum household income required to purchase an entry level property (2012)
Minimum Income to purchase (gross)
Single income
Dual income
1 bed
£46,151
£55,700
2 bed
£60,144
£72,588
3 bed
£80,028
£96,586
4 bed
£93,285
£112,585
Affordability of market housing for rent
The practice guidance also suggests renting a property becomes unaffordable where
the annual rent is more than 30% of household income, Subsequent guidance on
conducting housing market assessments suggests it becomes unaffordable if the rent
is more than 25% of household income. Using the 30% gross household income
affordability threshold means a household would need an income of £26,000 per
annum to rent an entry level one bedroom property and almost £50,000 to rent a
property with four or more bedrooms. Table 19 shows the minimum income
required to rent market accommodation in Croydon using London Rents Map data.
Table 19: London Rents Map August 2012 - annual income required
Lower
quartile
Room
One bed
Two bed
Three bed
Four bed
£74
£156
£196
£242
£312
Annual
income
req'd
£12,827
£27,040
£33,973
£41,947
£54,080
Median
£83
£167
£208
£258
£346
Annual
income
req'd
£14,387
£28,947
£36,053
£44,720
£59,973
Upper
quartile
£94
£179
£219
£277
£415
Annual
income
req'd
£16,293
£31,027
£37,960
£48,013
£71,933
Croydon’s economy
Croydon has a large town centre and substantial retail developments along the
Purley Way providing the south east of England with one of its major shopping
centres. It is a centre for business administration and is identified in the Mayor’s
London plan as an opportunity area (with significant brownfield resources for
housing or commercial development linked to public transport), as a potential
development centre for strategic offices and higher education, and as a key element
in the Wandle Valley development corridor. The council has been working with the
GLA to develop an 'Opportunity Area Planning Framework' (OAPF) for Croydon’s
32
Evidence base to April 2012
metropolitan centre (CMC) to enable development proposals to contribute to
meeting homes and jobs growth targets and support wider area regeneration. The
OAPF will form a part of the Mayor’s planning framework and will support Croydon’s
emerging spatial (physical and geographic) strategy for the metropolitan centre by
focussing on implementation.
Croydon is well placed to provide access to jobs and business opportunities both in
central London, the Gatwick corridor and the South coast. It benefits from good
transport links to central London and in 2010 became part of the London
underground system with the extension of the East London Line to West Croydon.
However, Croydon has seen a decline in traditional, manufacturing industry which
has affected areas towards Crystal Palace and other parts of north Croydon. Over
the last ten years Croydon’s economy has been in decline with a reduction of 7% in
the total number of full time jobs in the borough, compared to a 6% increase in
London and an 8% increase in Great Britain51. Croydon has a lower jobs density,
measured by the ratio of total jobs to population aged 16-64, compared to both the
Great Britain and London 52. The fabric of many of the office and industrial buildings
has deteriorated and some areas and town centres, such as Coulsdon and Purley, are
in need of regeneration.
The local economy is particularly reliant on the retail and public sectors and there
are few opportunities in knowledge-based industries. Croydon has a relatively low
skills base53 and has a greater proportion of people employed in sectors vulnerable
to the impact of recession. It also has a relatively high proportion of public sector
jobs and is likely to experience the impact of government spending cuts more
severely than other areas. However, there are also resilient local employment
clusters in the design and engineering, insurance and legal sectors.
The Economic Development Strategy refresh 2010 identifies four issues for Croydon
to act on:




51
52
Unemployment – there are around 30,000 people in Croydon claiming out of
work benefits54, however, worklessness is concentrated in particular
neighbourhoods.
Skills - Croydon has fewer people with level 4 skills among its working
population than the London average55.
Occupations – Croydon has fewer residents employed in knowledge intensive
occupations56 than the London average.
Earnings – earnings are around 10% lower in Croydon households than the
ONS annual business inquiry employee analysis (Full time jobs 1998 95,700; 2008 89,500)
ONS jobs density 2009 (Croydon 0.59; London 0.88; Great Britain 0.78)
53
ONS annual population survey, and Census 2001
DWP quarterly benefits data February 2010.
55
ONS APS 2008
56
Knowledge occupations – managers, professionals
54
33
Evidence base to April 2012
south London average57.
Employment
In the UK in April 2011 there were 29.17 million people in employment58, very
slightly below the peak of 29.6 million in April 2008. Table 20 below shows
Croydon’s labour force projections from 2006 to 2016 and Table 21 shows the
number and percentage of economically active people (both working and
unemployed but looking for work) in Croydon compared to London and Great
Britain.
Table 20: Resident Labour Force Projections (GLA)59
DMAG Resident Labour Force Projections (thousands)
Croydon
2006
2011
2016
2021
173.5
179.8
186.4
188.3
Table 21: Economically active people in Croydon 2011/12 (nomis)60
Croydon
Croydon
London
(numbers)
(%)
(%)
Economically active
180,800
In employment
159,500
136,600
22,500
19,500
Employees
Self employed
Unemployed (model-based)
77.9
68.5
59.5
8.8
10.9
Great
Britain
(%)
75.0
68.0
56.2
11.4
9.3
76.5
70.2
60.4
9.4
8.1
Table 22 shows the change in the percentage of the economically inactive
population who want a job over the past six years and the percentage of those
economically inactive.
Table 22: Economically inactive people wanting a job 2004-2012 (NOMIS)
Croydon (No.) Croydon (%)
London (%)
Great Britain
(%)
Apr 06-Mar 07
Apr 07-Mar 08
Apr 08-Mar 09
Apr 09-Mar 10
Apr 10-Mar 11
Apr 11-Mar 12
13,700
15,900
20,700
11,000
13,200
17,800
26.3
34.4
40.5
23.0
26.5
35.5
26.0
26.7
25.7
24.2
25.5
26.8
23.1
22.9
23.7
23.9
23.9
23.9
Occupations
The ONS carries out an annual survey of businesses which provides an estimate of
the number of people employed in different employment sectors. In Croydon, the
57
ONS ASHE 2009 – full time median weekly pay.
Labour Market Statistics, ONS (April 2012)
59
2010 Round Demographic Projections using the 2009 SHLAA- Annex Table 3
60
All people - Economically active, Time Series (NOMIS)
58
34
Evidence base to April 2012
most significant employment sectors are wholesale and retail, public administration
and health. Table 23 shows the numbers and percentages of people employed in
Croydon compared to London and Great Britain, taken from ONS annual population
survey data.
Table 23: Croydon Employment Sectors April 2011 to March 2012 (NOMIS)
Soc 2000 major group 1-3
1 Managers and senior officials
2 Professional occupations
3 Associate professional & technical
Soc 2000 major group 4-5
4 Administrative & secretarial
5 Skilled trades occupations
Soc 2000 major group 6-7
6 Personal service occupations
7 Sales and customer service occs
Soc 2000 major group 8-9
8 Process plant & machine operatives
9 Elementary occupations
Croydon
Croydon
London
Great
(number)
(%)
(%)
Britain (%)
70,700
50.0
54.6
43.3
14,800
9.3
11.5
10.0
36,100
28,900
22.6
18.1
25.0
17.8
19.2
13.9
34,700
21.7
18.5
22.0
24,000
15.1
10.7
11.1
10,700
6.7
7.6
10.8
23,800
14.9
13.5
17.2
14,900
9.3
7.2
9.1
8,900
5.6
6.3
8.1
21,300
13.3
13.4
17.4
8,200
5.2
4.3
6.4
13,100
8.2
9.0
10.8
Qualifications
Table 24 below shows the number and percentage of Croydon residents aged 16-64
and the level of qualifications they have attained, compared to the average for
London and Great Britain.
Table 24: Qualifications 2011 (ONS)
Croydon
(numbers)
Croydon
(%)
London
(%)
Great Britain
(%)
NVQ4 and above
83,900
37.0
45.9
32.9
NVQ3 and above
118,900
52.4
59.4
52.7
NVQ2 and above
156,500
69.1
71.4
69.7
NVQ1 and above
186,200
82.1
81.2
82.7
Other qualifications
20,200
8.9
9.5
6.7
No qualifications
20,300
8.9
9.3
10.6
Earnings
The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) 201161 shows median earnings for
people working full time living in Croydon to be £30,372 and lower quartile earnings
to be £21,963 , Table 25 shows the ASHE median and lower quartile earnings for full
time employees in London and Croydon in 2011 compared to 2004.
61
ONS ASHE 20011 & 2004 Table 8.7a Annual pay - Gross (£).
35
Evidence base to April 2012
Table 25: Croydon and London median and lower quartile full time
earnings 2004-2011
Median
Lower quartile
London 2011
£31,935
£22,713
Croydon 2011
£30,372
£21,963
London 2004
£27,046
£19,451
Croydon 2004
£25,321
£18,798
Both median and lower quartile incomes in Croydon are lower than London as a
whole
Croydon’s 2002 housing need assessment estimated gross average household
income to be £22,256 per annum and weekly net household income (including nonhousing benefits) to be £381 per week. Applying the increase in Croydon median
earnings from the ASHE survey between 2002 and 2011 to these figures produces an
average gross household income for 2011 of £26,695 and a weekly net household
income of £457.
The 2009 PayCheck dataset shows that 40 per cent of households in London had an
unequivalised62 household income of between £15,000 and £35,000 per year. Just
over three per cent of households had an income greater than £100k per annum.
This is equivalent to more than 100,000 households63.
Gross median household income in Croydon in 2010 was £30,48764. Figure 6 below
shows the distribution of equivalised household income in Croydon in 2008.
Significantly only 30,399 (21%) households in Croydon had incomes greater than
£50,00065.
62
Unequivalised household income is a measure that does not adjust the total annual income of a
household to take account of the number of people in the household (see McClements scoring
system).
63
DMAG Paycheck 2009 Update.
64
DMAG Paycheck 2010 Update 30-2010 December 2010.
65
2008 Paycheck Equivalised Income Data, DMAG (GLA).
36
Evidence base to April 2012
100+k
95-100k
90-95k
85-90k
80-85k
75-80k
70-75k
65-70k
60-65k
55-60k
50-55k
45-50k
40-45k
35-40k
30-35k
25-30k
20-25k
15-20k
10-15k
5-10k
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0-5k
Figure 6: CACI PayCheck 2008 household income distribution – Croydon
In April 2010, 32,000 households in Croydon claimed housing benefit. Whereas 52%
of housing association tenants and 66% of council tenants received housing benefit,
a far higher proportion of private tenants (about 90%) claimed housing benefit.
Housing needs assessment
We commissioned ORS to undertake a local housing market assessment (LHMA) in
2008. The LHMA models the number of unsuitably housed households in borough,
the “affordability gap” in market housing in Croydon and estimates how much
housing is needed to meet housing need by size and tenure taking into account the
affects of the 2008 ‘credit crunch’ and subsequent recession.
Croydon’s housing market is part of traditional northsouth flow from Inner South London to Surrey.
By modelling criteria such as income, house prices,
the Index of Multiple Deprivation, Census data and
other sources it is possible to predict how many
households are unsuitably housed. In Croydon 22.2%
of households (equating to over 30,000 households)
are estimated to be unsuitably housed mostly in the
north of the borough (28.5% unsuitably housed) and
in New Addington (32.2% unsuitably housed).
However only 4,000 of these households are likely to be in housing need as other
households could either afford to move themselves or to make the necessary
changes to their current homes.
ORS found there is sufficient private rented housing for households with incomes
between £30,000 and £40,000, however, it was suggested this group may be
interested in opportunities for shared ownership. Households require an income of
£40,000 per year or more to be able to purchase a home on the open market
affordably. There is also a lack of properties for households earning between
37
Evidence base to April 2012
£20,000 and £30,000 and Croydon needs to provide more intermediate rent and
shared ownership opportunities for this group.
LHMA housing requirement
Table 26 below sets out an estimate of the number of future households that will
require affordable, intermediate and market housing between 2009 and 2031 in
Croydon
Table 26: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031
TOTAL
Market
housing
18,653
Intermedia
te Housing
1,902
Affordable
Housing
7,514
TOTAL
%
28,069
100%
Key issues: the demographic drivers of housing need
The key demographic issues for the housing strategy are that London and Croydon’s
population is expected to continue to grow and that smaller and single person
households will become more prevalent. The age profile of the population will also
change and so will its diversity. These changes will affect the demand and need for
housing and housing related services in different ways:




38
The expected increase in the number of households, 13,000 between 2006 and
2018, will increase Croydon’s overall housing requirements.
The projected increase in single person households by 2016 will increase demand
for smaller sized housing.
The projected increase in lone parent and BME households will also increase
housing need and the requirement for affordable, family sized housing.
The expected changes to the age structure will increase demand for retirement
housing, for private sector renewal assistance and particularly for energy
Evidence base to April 2012
efficiency measures, and for community alarms and telecare to help older people
manage independently within their homes.
In addition there is a significant unmet need for wheelchair adapted housing.

Key issues: housing affordability
Market housing both to buy and rent is cheaper in Croydon than London overall.
However, there is still a significant affordability problem that has got worse over the
past ten years despite the effects of the credit crunch and economic downturn.
Household incomes in Croydon are also lower than London overall and are
insufficient to allow access to market housing for many households. Indicators of
housing stress, particularly mortgage possessions, show that many households are
barely holding on to market housing and are vulnerable to the impact of fluctuations
in the economy and reductions in household income. The key affordability issues for
the housing strategy are as follows:
 House prices, including “entry level” prices, have more than doubled in Croydon
over the past ten years. Following the recession, house prices increased in
London with “double digit” house price inflation reported by the Land Registry in
April 2010. However, 2011 has seen average (median) house prices fall back.
 House prices are significantly cheaper in Croydon than Outer London as a whole;
13% cheaper at average (median) prices and 10% cheaper at the entry level.
 “Entry level” house prices are eight times lower quartile earnings, although this
is still below the high of more than 9 times earnings seen in 2007.
 Croydon benefits from house prices that are cheaper than the London average;
however, Croydon’s housing market has been affected by the same pressures as
the rest of London and south-east England leading to housing, including “entry
level” housing, becoming less and less affordable.
 House prices are likely to be driven upwards by a continued shortage of supply
to the market compared to demand and by historically low interest rates.
 On the other hand restricted mortgage lending, higher deposits, cuts in public
sector jobs and low wage inflation could limit the scope for house price inflation
in the immediate short term.
 A household looking to buy an entry level one bedroom property in Croydon
would need an income of at least £46,151 per year to buy a one bedroom
property, and £80,028 to buy an entry level 3 bedroom property. Median income
for full time employees resident in Croydon was £31,935 in 2011.
 Entry level rents in the private rental sector in Croydon range from £3,848 per
year for shared accommodation, £8112 for 1 bed accommodation and between
£12,582 and £15,000 for family sized (3 bedroom accommodation or larger).
 Entry level rents to the private sector would require households to earn between
£12,000 per year for shared accommodation, £27,000 per year for 1 bed
accommodation and between £41,300 and £54,000 per year for family sized
accommodation (3 bedroom accommodation or larger) to be “affordable” (i.e. to
represent not more than 30% of gross household earnings66)
 The private rented sector plays a vital role in providing accommodation for
households where home ownership and social renting are not an option e.g.
66
London Councils alternative “affordability” ratio based on CLG SHMA guidance published in 2007.
39
Evidence base to April 2012


40
students, people on housing benefit, younger households unable to yet afford
home ownership, those in transition due to family break up and recent migrants.
LHA rates clearly show private sector rents in Croydon are more expensive than
the rest of England, which is unsurprising, but also that they are slightly lower
then the outer London average.
The London Rents Map shows a very similar picture and also shows that there is
some divergence in rents charged across the borough
Evidence base to April 2012
BUILDINGS AND PLACES
1. OPTIMISING THE SUPPLY OF NEW HOUSING
Government housing policy immediately after the Second World War focused on
tackling the housing shortage. Between 1949 and 1978 local authorities built an
average of 150,000 new homes a year and exceeded 200,000 new homes during the
1950s. As a result a crude balance between the number of households and the
number of dwellings in the country was achieved by the end of the 1970’s. Since
then, however, private sector house building has failed to keep pace with housing
requirements67 and local authorities have not been in a position to fill the gap.
The 1980s saw local authorities required to adopt an “enabling” rather than a direct
provider role. Housing associations were given the responsibility, tools and resources
to develop affordable housing. Housing associations were provided with Housing
Association Grant (HAG) by the Housing Corporation to develop new affordable
housing, given freedom from “fair rent” requirements and had the ability to “lever
in” private borrowing to make public subsidy go further. In recent years local
authorities and private developers have been able to become registered providers
and bid for social housing grant to build affordable housing and a trickle of new
council housing supply has emerged as a result. The key point however, is since
1979 housing associations and local authorities have produced on average only
39,000 new homes per year.
For areas with high housing demand and limited capacity, like Croydon, there is a
balance to be struck between attempting to maximise new housing supply to meet
demand and providing the jobs, services, facilities, culture and open spaces that
contribute to making somewhere an attractive place to live.
The new National Planning Policy Framework now includes a presumption in favour
of sustainable development, and the expectation that Local Plans should meet
objectively assessed needs, with sufficient flexibility to adapt to rapid change. Local
planning authorities should use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan
meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the
housing market area and identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable
sites sufficient to provide five years of housing against their housing requirements.
An additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure
choice and competition in the market for land and 20% where there is a record of
persistent under delivery of housing. Plans should include an appropriate mix of
housing based on demographic and market trends and meet the requirements of
different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children,
older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build
their own homes).
The affordable homes programme 2011-15 introduced a new funding model
“affordable rent” which allows registered providers to charge up to 80% of market
67
Sustainable communities – building for the future, ODPM (2003)
41
Evidence base to April 2012
rent for new and “converted”68 affordable housing and allows them to “lever in”
more private finance. Registered providers were required to sign up to a framework
delivery agreement with the Homes and Communities Agency which would also take
into account any proposed disposals of social housing and the proportion of vacant
social housing the RP would consider converting to affordable rent. The aim of the
programme is to allow RPs flexibility to manage their development programme and
to “liberate” housing subsidy locked up in existing social housing.
The coalition government’s Housing Strategy for England “Laying the Foundations”69
introduced a number of initiatives to help increase the delivery of housing overall
including:




The new build mortgage indemnity scheme
Reconsideration of section 106 affordable housing requirement agreements
A Get Britain Building fund to help unlock stalled development schemes
Proposals to free up public sector land for development
This section of looks at the delivery of new housing in Croydon. It looks at the
current housing stock in Croydon, how the tenure mix has changed and the extent
and distribution of social housing. It goes on to look at Croydon’s record in housing
development and the delivery of affordable housing and then looks at the capacity
for future residential growth. It then summarises plans for delivery of infrastructure
to support the plans for growth in the borough.
Housing stock
Over the forty years from 1961 to 2001 the dwelling stock in England increased by
half, from 14 million to over 21 million. Since 2001 increases in the dwelling stock
have been relatively modest compared to previous decades. There were an
estimated 22.8 million dwellings in England as at 31 March 2011, an increase of 0.53
per cent on the previous year70. In Croydon there were an estimated 148,100
dwellings in the borough as at 31st March 2011 (an increase of 0.57% on the
previous year), the largest borough dwelling stock in London71.
Housing tenure
Housing tenure in England has changed significantly over the course of the 20th
Century with owner occupation increasing dramatically, and private renting
decreasing equally significantly. After the First World War social renting became an
increasingly important tenure in meeting housing need.
In 1914 only 10% of households were owner occupiers, while 90% rented from a
private landlord and only 20,000 rented from a local authority or new town
corporation (0.3% of all households)72. In 2010/11, however, owner occupation was
68
Vacant social housing dwellings converted from target to affordable rent.
Laying the Foundations: A Housing Strategy for England, HM Government (2011)
70
Dwelling Stock Estimates: 2011, England, CLG (November 2011).
71
Table 125: Dwelling stock estimates by local authority district: 2001 – 2012, DCLG.
72
British Social Trends Since 1900 – A Guide to the Changing Social Structure of Britain, Halsey A.H. (ed.),
Macmillan (1988).
69
42
Evidence base to April 2012
the largest tenure in England, accounting for 66% of all households continuing a
decline since 200773. Social renting was the second largest housing tenure at 17.5%
with private renting in third place accounting for 16.5% of the stock.
Croydon’s tenure profile has developed in a very similar way to England but,
compared to London, Croydon has a relatively small social housing sector. Over the
past thirty years it has changed in line with the national trend, with owner
occupation increasing to over 70% in 1991 and private renting decreasing to 10%.
Table 27 below shows Croydon’s tenure profile over the past 30 years from census
data.
Table 27: Housing tenure (Census)
1971
1981
1991
2001
Total
Owner-occupied
Social rented
112,900
114,580
124,850
138,996
64,500
74,145
90,867
95,523
19,975
24,671
20,692
23,338
57.10%
64.70%
72.80%
68.70%
Private rented
17.70%
21.50%
16.60%
16.80%
28,020
15,764
13,291
20,135
24.80%
13.80%
10.60%
14.50%
Social rented housing
In 2010/11 social rented housing was the second largest tenure in England,
accommodating 3.8 million (17.5% of) households74. In 2008 Croydon’s local
authority and housing association rented housing made up 17% of dwellings, slightly
less than the national average. Table 28 shows the most recent count of the
borough’s housing stock, broken down into public housing (council, housing
association and ‘other’) and private housing (private rented and owner occupied).
Table 28: Croydon dwelling stock (ELASH and HCA SDR returns )
2012
2011
2005
2001
1995
Local Authority
Housing Association
'Other' public
sector
Private sector
14,080
14,024
14,237
15,233
16,353
11,614
10,347
8,898
8,221
6,655
17
18
100
89
174
123,099
122,011
115,697
113,314
110,664
Total
148,810
146,400
138,932
136,857
133,846
The number of social rented homes in Croydon has increased by 2,686 over the 16
years from 1995 to 2011, from 23,008 homes in 1995 to 25,694 in 2011. The right to
buy policy and housing associations being funded to develop new social rented
housing has resulted in a redistribution of social homes between the two types of
landlord. 71% of social housing in 1995 was owned by the council, falling to 54% in
2012, with the housing association share increasing accordingly.
73
74
English Housing Survey – Headline report 2010/11
English Housing Survey – Headline report 2010/11
43
Evidence base to April 2012
The impact of the right to buy on social housing
Since the introduction of the right to buy in 1980 the council has sold more than
10,000 social rented homes to sitting tenants75. In recent years limits to discounts,
increases in house prices and tighter mortgage lending criteria has seen right to buy
sales fall to single figures76. However, the reinvigorated Right to Buy, introduced in
April 2012 increased the discount on right to buy purchases up to £75,000 and as a
result the interest in the right to buy has dramatically increased.
Figure 7 below shows the level of right to buy sales compared to the size of the
council housing stock over the past ten years. Reductions in the social housing stock
from right to buy sales have largely been replaced by housing associations building
new social rented homes and very recently by the council’s own new build
programme.
15,400
1,000
15,200
900
15,000
800
14,800
700
14,600
600
14,400
500
14,200
400
14,000
300
13,800
200
13,600
100
13,400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09 -10 -11 -12
Council stock 15,23 14,99 14,72 14,41 14,23 14,18 14,13 14,04 14,02 14,04 14,02 14,08
RTB sales
249
259
242
324
164
39
46
38
4
5
8
8
Spatial distribution of social housing
Figure 8 below shows the distribution of social rented housing in Croydon with
concentrations evident in the north and the eastern edge of the borough. Fieldway
and New Addington wards have the highest proportions of social housing, with 57%
and 40% respectively. The lowest proportions of social housing are found in Selsdon
and Ballards, and Coulsdon West wards with 2.6% and 6.7% respectively.
75
Local authority stock sold through right-to-buy and other council house sales, by district and region,
Table 648, (CLG). Source: Returns (P1B) from local authorities to CLG.
76
Five dwellings were sold under the Right to Buy in Croydon in 2009/10.
44
0
dwellings sold
dwellings
Figure 7: Council housing stock and right to buy sales 2000 to 2012
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 8: Social housing distribution in Croydon (Census 2001)
UPPER NORWOOD
NORBURY
A23
SOUTH
NORWOOD
THORNTON HEATH
BENSHAM MANOR
WEST
THORNTON
WOODSIDE
A2 12
SELHURST
ASHBURTON
Percentage of households
ADDISCOMBE
BROAD GREEN
SHIRLEY
EAST CROYDON
STATION
A2 32
Fairfield Halls
FAIRFIELD
A232
WADDON
HEATHFIELD
CROHAM
FIELDWAY
A23
SELSDON &
BALLARDS
PURLEY
0%
2%
4%
8%
15%
30%
to 2%
to 4%
to 8%
to 15%
to 30%
or more
NEW
ADDINGTON
SANDERSTEAD
A2
2
A23
COULSDON
WEST
KENLEY
COULSDON EAST
Private rented housing
The private rented sector still plays a necessary role in providing housing for
households for whom home ownership and social renting may not be options e.g.
students, people on housing benefit, younger households unable to yet afford home
ownership, those in transition due to family break up, recent migrants.
There is no regular survey of the number of privately rented dwellings other than the
census; however, the 2002 housing needs survey, based on a 1% survey of the
housing stock, estimated the number to be 19,200. Bearing in mind the growth of
the private sector since 2002, we now estimate the number to have risen to at least
20,000 and there may be many more.
The 2011 census will provide an accurate figure for private rented accommodation,
however, the figures are not going to be released until later in 2012 or in early 2013.
Housing development - all tenures
House building in England steadily increased after the Second World War and peaked
in 1968 with 353,000 new homes being completed. Most of these were built by
private enterprise, however, more than 4 in ten were built by the social housing
sector, primarily by local authorities. Since the peak in 1968 house building has
declined, and averaged just over 145,000 in first decade of the 21st century. Since
1991 housing associations have played the major role in social housing development,
accounting for 99 per cent of social sector completions in 2009. Figure 9 below
shows the relative contribution of private enterprise, housing associations and local
authorities to the provision of new homes in England from immediately after the
Second World War to 2010. Figure 9 clearly shows the rapid decline in local
authority housebuilding after 1979.
45
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 9: Housebuilding England 1946-201077
Permanent dwellings completed
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Private enterprise
Housing associations
2009
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
1970
1967
1964
1961
1958
1955
1952
1949
0
Local authorities
Housing development in Croydon
Over the past eight years Croydon the housing stock has increased by, on average
1,068 additional dwellings per year. In total more than 8,550 new homes have been
added78. Table 29 shows the number of net additional dwellings delivered in London
and Croydon between 2004/5 and 2011/12.
Table 29: Net additions to the dwelling stock79
2004-05
London
Croydon
22,890
660
2005-06
24,860
670
2006-07
26,940
1,030
2007-08
27,570
1,460
2008-09
28,300
1,530
2009-10
24,340
1,370
2010-11
17,830
1,120
2011-12
24,870
710
New housing completions in Croydon
Table 30 shows the contribution of new housing to the increase in the dwelling stock
over the past eight years in the form of housing completions. In 2009/10 Croydon
produced the third highest number of new housing completions in London,
increased the housing stock by a net 1,370 net additional “conventional” homes in
2009/10, of which 347 were long term empty homes brought back into use. In
2010/11 Croydon completed a more modest 480 new dwellings, the 9th highest level
of completions in London. In 2011/12 there were 500 new dwellings completed,
77
Table 241 House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure
Net additions measure the absolute increase in stock between one year and the next, including
other losses and gains (such as conversions, changes of use and demolitions).Source - Housing Flows
Reconciliation (HFR), the Greater London Authority and Regional Assembly joint returns.
78
79
Table 122: Net additional dwellings by LA district (CLG)
46
Evidence base to April 2012
slightly higher than the previous year and the 14th highest level of completions in
London.
Table 30: House building - New dwellings completed 2004/5 to 2011/1280
England
London
Croydon
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
155,890
24,060
390
163,400
18,810
400
167,680
22,760
850
167,770
22,550
1,150
134,110
19,220
750
113,670 106,050
19,470 17,810
1,100
480
2011-12
118,190
17,580
500
New housing starts in Croydon
The 2008 credit crunch, the subsequent economic downturn, housing market
stagnation and restricted mortgage lending have had an effect on new housing
development in Croydon. This is most clearly seen in figures showing the number of
new dwellings started and under construction in the borough, than in housing
completions. Table 31 below shows the number of new dwellings started in England,
London and Croydon over past eight years and the effect of the credit crunch and
recession can clearly be seen in the reduction of the number of starts in 2008/09 and
2009/10. 2010/11 the number of dwelling started increased in England and in
London compared to the previous two years, however, fell in Croydon. In 2011/12
the number of starts in England increased again to 105,090, the number of starts fell
back in London, however, in Croydon there was an increase on the previous year of
110 starts.
Table 31: House building - New dwellings started 2004/5 to 2011/1281
England
London
Croydon
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
174,310
24,530
480
183,360
24,120
1,460
170,320
19,450
1,100
163,370
20,170
1,120
2008-09
80,580
13,140
560
2009-10
2010-11
87,690 103,690 105,090
12,560 17,050 14,700
500
310
420
Affordable housing delivery
Table 32 below shows the number of affordable dwellings completed by housing
associations and the council in Croydon over the past six years.
Table 32: Affordable housing completions 2006-201282
Council
social
rent
2006/07
2007/08
80
1
0
HA
social
rent
213
358
HA
affordable
rent
Housing
association
intermediate
rent
Housing
association
shared
ownership
-
15
16
138
213
Total
367
587
Table 253: House building – new dwellings started and completed by LA district (CLG).
Table 253: House building – new dwellings started and completed by LA district (CLG).
82
Source: Housing strategy statistical appendix (CLG); 2011/12 Table 1011: Additional affordable
housing supply 2011 to 2012, detailed breakdown by local authority (DCLG)
81
47
2011/12
Evidence base to April 2012
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
0
27
262
486
-
91
26
109
204
462
743
0
31
114
458
12
0
2
38
74
152
577
Empty homes
Empty homes Council tax data indicates that 1,664 private sector homes had been
vacant for more than 6 months in April 2011, 1.36% of the private stock. In
comparison there are only 18 council homes 0.01% of the stock which a have been
vacant for more than six months, pending refurbishment.
An audit in April 2010 identified that 663 empty private homes were particularly
problematic because their owners do not have plans or the ability to return the
properties to use. Figure 10 below shows that 39% of these empty properties are
concentrated in Croydon metropolitan centre and environs, and 39% in North
Croydon, in particular in Fairfield, Selhurst and South Norwood wards which account
for almost one third. 44% are two bedroom properties, 29% have three bedrooms
and 18% have one bedroom.
Figure 10: Distribution of long-term empty homes, 2010
1 bed
2 bed
3 bed
4 bed
Coulsdon East
Fieldway
Sanderstead
Broad Green
New Addington
Kenley
Selsdon and Ballards
Ashburton
Heathfield
Coulsdon West
Shirley
Woodside
Croham
Upper Norwood
Norbury
Addiscombe
Purley
Bensham Manor
Waddon
West Thornton
Thornton Heath
Selhurst
South Norwood
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Fairfield
Vacant homes
Long term vacant homes by ward April 2010
5 bed+
Future housing requirement
The key driver for our future housing development is population growth. It is
estimated Croydon’s population will increase from 339,000 today to nearly 380,000
by 2031. Different parts of Croydon will see different rates of growth with the largest
increase in Croydon’s Metropolitan Centre and its surrounding areas. It is expected
there will be smaller increases in the south of the borough, the north is projected to
see a slight decline and the east will stay about the same. The population will
48
Evidence base to April 2012
continue to become more diverse, with more than half of the Borough’s population
coming from a Black or Minority Ethnic Group by 2031. The Core Strategy sets out
our plans to meet the housing needs of this growing population.
The Local Housing Market assessment estimates that 33,800 new homes are
required in Croydon between 2007 and 2031. This represents an annual requirement
of 1,408 new homes. The size and tenure mix of the remaining housing requirement
after subtracting the housing already built in 2007 and 2008 is set out in Table 33
below.
Table 33: Housing requirement – Croydon 2009 to 2031
Market
Intermediate
Affordable
TOTAL
housing
Housing
Housing
1 bedroom
2,603
815
3,206
6,624
2 bedrooms
1,777
823
1,478
4,078
3 bedrooms
9,238
264
2,001
11,504
4 bedrooms
4,181
0
673
4,854
5+ bedroom
854
0
156
1,010
TOTAL
18,653
1,902
7,514
28,069
Source: London Borough of Croydon ORS LHMA 2009 (2031 High)
%
23%
15%
41%
17%
4%
100%
What is our land capacity for housing development?
The council expects more than 4,000 new homes to be built in Croydon between
2011 and 2016, based on planning permissions already granted, which will meet our
London Plan housing targets. Looking at the longer term, the London Plan expects
Croydon to deliver 13,300 new homes by 2021. Croydon’s metropolitan centre
(CMC) has the greatest potential for residential development, and the core strategy
expects 7,000 of the 20,200 new homes to be built by 2031, to be built in the CMC.
We are well on the way to meeting our current London Plan housing target,
however, we still need to identify more land for residential development to meet
housing demand up to 2031. The GLA Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment
(SHLAA) identified 200ha of land over 0.25ha in size in the borough; however,
realistically not all of that land will be used for residential development. Our
estimate is that small sites will produce 5,500 new homes outside the CMC to 2031.
We also estimate the Croydon Metropolitan Centre can provide a further 7,000 new
homes to 2031. More than three quarters of residential development over the next
five years will come from sites currently under construction or from fifteen larger
sites across the borough with planning permission for new homes. Altogether we
estimate the borough can accommodate 20,200 new homes as and still retain
sufficient open space and land for commercial development.
49
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 11: the location of future housing development in Croydon
INFRASTRUCTURE – MAKING GREAT PLACES
The Infrastructure Delivery Plan (IDP) identifies the hard, social and green
infrastructure we need to support and underpin Croydon’s growth through to 2031.
It also forms part of the evidence base for our Local Development Framework (LDF).
Infrastructure means physical or hard infrastructure such as utilities and transport;
green infrastructure such as parks, open spaces and the natural environment; and
social infrastructure such as schools, health facilities and other public services. The
IDP is key to ensuring that Croydon grows in a sustainable way, providing not just
homes and jobs but all the other elements that collectively make great places in
which to live, work and spend time.
The Infrastructure delivery plan is available to download from the council’s web site
http://www.croydon.gov.uk/contents/departments/planningandregeneration/pdf/8
68213/1114530/idpaug11.pdf
50
Evidence base to April 2012
Key Issues – Housing stock and tenure





Croydon has the 13th lowest proportion of social rented housing stock in London
(2008) and less capacity to meet housing need.
Croydon has a relatively large owner-occupied sector and its proportion has
increased over the past 40 years in line with the national trend.
A contraction at the margins in the owner-occupied sector as a result of tougher
lending criteria for mortgage finance and a smaller more exclusive home
ownership market will have implications for other sectors including social
housing83.
Since 1991, Croydon’s private rented housing has increased, partly through
growth in overall supply and partly at the expense of owner-occupied housing
(which has declined) as a result of buy to let investment. This trend within the
private market is likely to continue over the next decade enhancing the role of
the private rented sector.
More than 10,000 social rented homes have been bought by Croydon tenants
under the right to buy since 1980. Development of new social housing has
maintained the proportion of social rented housing in Croydon at 17% of the
stock for the past 20 years.
Key issues: housing supply



83
According to a full local housing market assessment (LHMA) undertaken in 2008,
Croydon requires more than 27,000 new homes between 2009 and 2031.
The supply of homes has been falling, a trend likely to continue as a result of the
economic downturn and reduction in the national affordable housing
programme: the number of homes started on site in 2011/12 (420) was only half
the level started in 2007/08 (1120). This rate applied equally to private sector
and affordable housing.
An estimated 500 Croydon people who use wheelchairs have unmet housing
needs; some of this need can be met through efficient allocation of existing
accessible homes and through adaptations, but some must be met through new
homes which comply with wheelchair-accessible or lifetime home standards.
Williams. P Home Ownership – Where now? In Housing markets and policy Malpass and Rowlands (Ed)
(Routledge 2010).
51
Evidence base to April 2012
2. MAINTAINING AND IMPROVING OUR EXISTING HOUSING
Our existing homes are an increasingly valuable resource. They play a vital role in
meeting housing need now and will continue to do so far into the future. It is
estimated that existing housing will make up at least 75% of the housing stock in
205084. Good quality housing provides more than our basic need for shelter and
warmth. It allows young people to grow and develop in healthy surroundings; it
provides a safe, secure place for people to rest and recharge; and with sufficient
space it allows people of all ages to study, think and learn. At the right price or rent
it is a platform for economic self-sufficiency and a place from which to plan and
provide for the future. In successful neighbourhoods where people look out for each
other and take decisions collectively and take pride in their area, it makes people
want to stay, to put down roots, to bring up a family and invest in the future. It is
easy to see how good quality housing contributes to so many of the improvements
we want to see socially and economically. It is equally easy to see how poor quality
housing has a detrimental effect on health and well-being, disproportionately affects
vulnerable households living in deprived areas and holds back progress in tackling
social economic and health inequalities.
The origins of government intervention to improve housing go back to the 19 th
century and concerns about public health from overcrowding and from unsanitary
housing conditions. Housing policy immediately after the Second World War tackled
housing shortage and poor housing conditions through a programme of demolition
and comprehensive redevelopment. However, from the latter part of the 1960s
onwards the approach changed to area based improvement programmes. The
extent of state intervention to tackle private sector housing conditions has gradually
reduced over the past thirty years, with mandatory responsibilities being replaced
with discretionary powers, grants replaced by loans, and the introduction of means
testing85. Local authorities have been encouraged to place private sector renewal
within an overall strategic approach to tackling area based disadvantage.
Social housing condition became a priority for local authorities with the introduction
of the decent homes target86 which aimed to tackle a £19bn backlog in repairs by
2010. Local authorities were required to make a 30 year commitment by 2004
(backed up by a tenant’s vote and a “fit for purpose” housing strategy and business
plan) to achieving and maintaining the decent homes standard with the necessary
funding provided either through their own resources, the private finance initiative,
stock transfer or setting up an arms-length management organisation (ALMO), and
thereby qualifying for government funding (subject to a 2* inspection rating). The
social housing regulator’s home standard includes a requirement to maintain homes
at this standard.
84
Stock Take’: Delivering improvements in existing housing, Sustainable Development Commission
(2006)
85
Through the 1989 Local Government and Housing Act.
86
Quality and Choice: A decent home for all – The way forward for housing (2000)
52
Evidence base to April 2012
Council housing finance has been reformed via the Localism Act 2011 and Housing
Revenue Account (HRA) self-financing introduced in April 2012. This is significant
departure for Croydon as we have retained the ownership of our housing stock and
have in the past been paying in substantial amounts into the former HRA subsidy
system. Self-financing gives us as a local authority the resources and flexibility to
manage and maintain our housing stock for the long term, and it also provides a
more transparent system through which our tenants can hold us to account for the
rents we charge and the services we provide. In Croydon we made a one-off
settlement payment to central government of £223 million in respect of our historic
housing debt in order to take on the freedom of self-financing.
We have as a nation legally binding commitments through the Kyoto Protocol and
the Climate Change Act 2008 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 24% of the UK’s
carbon dioxide emissions are generated by the UK domestic building stock87.
Existing homes vary widely in terms of their resource efficiency and overall
contribute more than a quarter of all CO2 emissions. The Government has also set a
target to eradicate fuel poverty across England, as far as reasonably practicable, in
vulnerable88 households by 2010 (which has not been met) and in all households by
201689.
The London Mayor’s Draft Climate Change Mitigation and Energy Strategy sets a
target to reduce London’s CO2 emissions from all sources by 60 per cent against 1990
levels by 2025. By 2030 all existing homes should be retrofitted with energy efficiency
measures and have the potential to generate electricity. The Croydon Climate Change
Mitigation Action Plan has set CO2 reduction targets for domestic housing of 5% by
2015 and 34% by 2025 from the 2005 baseline.
The Green Deal, included in the government’s Energy Act 2011, enables the
installation of energy efficiency measures without requiring public funding or upfront
investment by householders. The capital cost is repaid through a monthly charge
based on fuel bill savings. The provision of capital to fund the measures will act as an
incentive to private landlords to invest. The 'Green Deal' also introduces an Energy
Company Obligation to focus help on low income vulnerable households and
domestic properties where energy efficiency works are more expensive.
Local authorities have made some inroads into poor housing conditions in the
private rented sector by assisting vulnerable households to bring their housing up to
the decent homes standard. However, fitting energy saving heating and insulation to
the least efficient housing is still a priority.
Allowing homes to stand empty and unused when so many households are in
housing need is widely recognised as a scandalous waste of resources, particularly
when so many households are still in housing need. Bringing empty properties back
87
Energy Bill Impact Assessment: Green Deal, Department of Energy and Climate Change (2010) p12
For the purposes of fuel poverty, ‘vulnerable households’ are defined as those containing elderly or
disabled people, children, or the long-term sick.
89
The UK Fuel Poverty Strategy, DTI, November 2001.
88
53
Evidence base to April 2012
into use has been a priority for local authorities for a number of years and there are
a wide range of powers to tackle the problem up to and including compulsory
purchase.
This section looks at the condition of council, housing association, owner-occupied
and private rented housing in Croydon. It also looks at progress towards achieving
the decent homes standard, tackling fuel poverty and improving energy efficiency.
Decent homes
Council housing
In April 2002, 42% of Croydon’s council homes failed the decent homes standard, a
smaller proportion than the London average of 52% and the 12 th lowest level of nondecent homes in the capital. Since 2002 the council has invested more than £80
million in achieving the decent homes standard. In April 2012 201 council properties
were non decent (1.4%), of which 132 (0.9%) were unable to be made decent due to
the current tenant refusing to allow the works required to be carried out. This means
that 100% of Croydon’s council housing (that is able to be repaired) met the decent
home standard. Figure 14 below shows Croydon’s decent homes performance
compared to London boroughs between 2002 and 2011.
Figure 12: Percentage of non-decent homes
The Percentage of Non-Decent Homes
100%
Upper Quartile
90%
Mid Quartile
Mid Quartile
80%
Lower Quartile
70%
Croydon
60%
50%
42%
40%
38%
30%
23%
20%
17%
20%
10%
10%
8%
4%
0%
0%
2002-03
54
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
Evidence base to April 2012
Table 34 below sets out the detail decent homes activity undertaken in 2011/12.
Table 34: Decent Homes – Croydon 2011/12
Non-decent
dwellings tackled
during 2011/12
Dwellings received
work to prevent
non decency in
2011/12
345
Dwellings
becoming non
decent during
2011/12*
5624
Number of nondecent dwellings
at 1 April 2012*
69 (0%)
414
Cost to make all
dwellings decent
at 1 April 2012
£2.2m
Note: excluding
tenants refusals
Despite the fact that 100% of council homes (where decent homes works could be
carried out) met the decent home standard in April 2012, significant resources would
be required to prevent dwellings from becoming non-decent. Table 35 shows the
change in the expenditure made to make all non-decent dwellings decent during
2011/12.
Table 35: Decent Homes – expenditure to make all dwellings decent (2011)
Money spent making
dwellings decent in
2011/12 £000s
Money spent
preventing dwellings
becoming non-decent
in 2011/12 £000s
Costs arising from
dwellings becoming
non-decent in
2011/12 £000s
Cost to make all
dwellings decent at
1/4/2012 £000s
5141
2008
3974
2223
Housing association housing
In April 2012 99.8% of housing association homes in Croydon met the decent homes
standard. According to our local housing association survey, four associations have a
total of 27 non-decent homes as at April 2012.
The 2009/10 English Housing Survey found potentially serious (Category 1) hazards as
measured under the Housing Health and Safety Rating System are present in around
191,000 housing association homes in England in 2009, 9.7% of the housing
association stock90. In Croydon the are no housing association properties91 with
category 1 hazards92.
Private sector housing
Croydon has the largest private housing sector in London with 122,011 homes. 83%
are owner-occupied and 17% private rented. Most of the borough’s private housing is
in good condition; however, a significant proportion is in poor condition. The worst
housing conditions in the borough are found in the private sector.
90
English Housing Survey – Headline Report 2009/10
ELASH 2012 and Croydon council’s survey of housing associations 2012.
92
Housing Health and Safety Rating System Guidance for Landlords and Property Related
Professionals, Communities and Local Government (May 2006) see
http://www.opsi.gov.uk/si/si2005/20053208.htm
91
55
Evidence base to April 2012
In 2005, BRE (formerly the Building Research Establishment) carried out a study of
stock condition in Croydon, using modelled data from the English House Condition
Survey and the 2001 census, and updated it in 2007 and 2008. The key findings of the
2008 update are as follows:
10% (11,397) of private housing is in disrepair
17% (20,086) of private housing has category 1 hazards under the HHSRS
24% (28,370) of private housing provides inadequate thermal comfort
6% (6,695) of private housing lack modern facilities
37% (42,973) of private housing fails the decent home standard
The estimated cost of removing all private sector category 1 hazards is £227m93.






Table 36 below shows the percentage by reason for failing the decent homes
standard in the different housing tenures from the English House Condition Survey
Table 36: Housing conditions: reasons for failing decent homes, England, 2008
Category 1
HHSRS %
Thermal
comfort %
Repair
%
9.5
16.8
10.9
Modern
facilities &
services %
2.4
4.5
2.8
5.5
9.4
6.3
All non
decent
%
29.3
40.8
31.5
Owner-occupied
Private rented
All private
20.8
27.1
22.0
Local authority
HOUSING
ASSOCIATION
All social
All tenures
13.4
9.7
8.2
7.5
6.5
2.3
6.5
3.8
27.1
19.7
11.5
20.2
7.8
10.4
4.3
3.1
5.1
6.1
23.2
30.1
Table 36 shows private rented dwellings as being the most likely to be non-decent
and to have category 1 hazards. Local authorities have a statutory duty to deal with
category 1 hazards under the Housing Act 200494.
Approximately one third of private sector housing in Croydon and England fails the
decent home standard (37% and 32% respectively). However, there are significant
differences in the reasons for failing the standard. Whereas the main reason in
England is the presence of category 1 hazards (22% of cases, compared with 17% in
Croydon), the main reason in Croydon is the lack of thermal comfort (24%, compared
with 11% in England). An explanation of the difference is likely to lie in the age and
type of construction of housing stock in Croydon, as well as the fact that the national
data is more recent and has captured an additional year of improvement.
These figures clearly show that improving energy efficiency should be a large part of
raising the standard of private sector homes. The estimated average cost of making a
93
94
HSSA 2011 CLG.
Part I of the Housing Act 2004.
56
Evidence base to April 2012
home decent is £14,00095, making the total investment required to bring all private
sector homes in Croydon up to the decent home standard £602m.
The BRE stock condition study found non-decent homes were more prevalent in
seven wards in the north and west-central part of the borough: Addiscombe,
Bensham Manor, Broad Green, South Norwood, Thornton Heath, Waddon and West
Thornton. Figure 13 below shows the distribution of private sector non-decent homes
with concentrations in the north of the borough and in areas of Coulsdon West,
Sanderstead and New Addington.
Figure 13: Non-decent private sector homes as a percentage of all dwellings
In 2009, 3.2 million ‘vulnerable households’96 in England were living in the private
sector housing, of which 2.0 million (63%) were living in decent homes97. In Croydon
15,051 private sector households were defined as vulnerable and 51% (7,650) were
living in decent homes. In order to achieve the decent homes target of 70% of
vulnerable households living in decent homes, 2,886 homes would need to be made
decent at an estimated cost of £40m98.
95
Based on BRE study 2008, adjusted to take into account costs in an outer London borough
A vulnerable household is a household in receipt of the following benefits: Income Support; Incomebased Job Seeker’s Allowance; Housing Benefit; Council Tax Benefit; Disability Living Allowance: Care
Component; Disability Living Allowance: Mobility Component; Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit;
War Disablement Pension; Attendance Allowance; A range of tax credits with different qualifying
thresholds including child tax credit, working tax credit and pension credit (See CLG 2006 EHCS report)
97
English Housing Survey – Headline report 2009/10
98
BRE 2008 updated report
96
57
Evidence base to April 2012
Private sector renewal
Between April 2006 and March 2011 the council provided grants and, more recently
loans99, to assist 1,878 private homeowners to bring their properties up to standard.
Figure 14 below shows grants and loans made between April 2007and the end of
March 2011 by ward100.
Figure 14: Private sector renewal assistance 2007-2011
Private sector renewal assistance 2007/11
180
160
40
140
24
35
Grants or loans
120
37
33
30
28
39
100
24
39
80
35
27
29
29
22
21
9
25
12
45
16
40
60
25
36
25
34
28
29
25
27
39
29
20
23
19
17
14
17
18
40
27
53
20
46
45
35
39
25
34
30
22
19
19
26
22
48
14
22
27
14
19
26
17
20
19
18
13
18
37
16
17
13
13
6
14
17
9
9
19
4
7
12
8
13
12
9
8
6
8
16
12
7
5
6
8
12
Th
or
nt
W on
e s He
Be t Th a th
o
ns
ha rnto
m
n
M
an
W
o
oo r
ds
id
No e
Br
rb
o
ur
y
So a d
ut G re
h
e
No n
rw
o
Up Se o d
pe lhu
r N rs
or t
w
Fi o od
el
dw
ay
F
Ad airf
di ield
sc
om
b
Ne Wa e
w
dd
Ad
o
di n
n
As gto
hb n
u
He rton
at
hf
ie
ld
Pu
rle
y
Sa Shi
nd rley
er
Se
st
lsd
ea
on
Cr d
an oh
a
d
Co Ba m
ul llar
s
ds
Co d o
ul n E
sd
a
on st
W
es
Ke t
nl
ey
0
10
15
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
The council’s private sector renewal programme is not area based and responds to
need wherever it arises in the borough. Figure 16 above shows where investment in
improving private sector housing conditions has been concentrated in recent years.
In 2009/11 North Croydon received 43% of assistance and Croydon metropolitan
centre and its environs 26%. Since the loan scheme was introduced in 2009, some
areas with residents who are “asset-rich but cash-poor” have seen an above average
increase in assistance, notably Heathfield and Shirley.
In 2011/12 the council provided financial assistance (£1.8m) to improve 213 owner
occupied and private rented dwellings as part of its private sector renewal
programme.
99
From April 2009 the council introduced a loans scheme whereby private sector homeowners could
be granted a loan for qualifying works, the loan would be repayable over a certain period and a
charge would be registered against the property with the Land Registry.
100
End of year figures for 2010/11 are projections.
58
Evidence base to April 2012
Energy efficiency
There has been a substantial improvement in the average energy efficiency of
dwellings in the whole of housing stock between 1996 and 2010. The mean energy
efficiency (SAP) for all tenures in England was 55 in 2010101. This increase maintained
the steady progress since 1996 when the mean SAP rating was 42. The improvement
has been driven by changes to Building Regulations for new dwellings and through
energy efficiency improvements carried out on the existing stock by homeowners and
landlords (funded privately or through Government led programmes).
Figure 6.1 below from the English Housing Survey Housing Stock Report 2009 shows
this progress very clearly in all tenures. The energy efficiency of private sector homes
is lower than that of social housing. The average SAP rating of private rented homes
in England in 2009 was 51.9 and owner occupied homes was 51.3 compared with 59.6
in local authority rented housing and 62.4 in housing association rented housing.
Figure 6.1: Mean energy efficiency (SAP) rating by tenure, 1996-2009
EER Band
65
D
60
SAP rating
55
50
E
45
40
35
F
30
1996
1997
1998
ow ner occupied
1999
2000
2001
private rented
2002
2003
2004
local authority
2005
2006
2007
2008
housing association
2009
all tenures
Base: all dwellings
Source: English House Condition Survey 1996 - 2007, English Housing Survey 2008
onwards, dwelling sample
The reason for the difference is partly the age profile and type of housing in different
tenures and partly the investment local authorities have made in their own stock to
achieve the decent homes standard.
In Croydon the average energy efficiency rating of all council dwellings is C102, and a
significant element of decent homes investment has gone towards improving
101
102
English Housing Survey Homes report 2010, CLG
ELASH 2012
59
Evidence base to April 2012
“thermal comfort” (i.e. energy efficiency) including insulating council homes with
cavity walls, providing programmable central heating and fitting double glazing.
In April 2011 there were 1,582 council homes (11%) without double-glazing and 3,643
properties have loft insulation that is less than 200mm thick (100% of council homes
with lofts have a minimum of 100mm of insulation). There are a small number of
older or vulnerable tenants (94) who do not want the disruption of having central
heating installed and have refused to have works carried out.
Data from CEN103 home energy checks indicates the average private sector SAP rating
in Croydon was 56 in 2008, the most recent data available104, two points higher than
the London average of 54. The 2008 BRE stock condition study estimates 11% of
private sector homes in Croydon have a SAP rating of below 35 (13,659) compared to
8% across London. Older properties and converted flats have the worst energy
efficiency ratings as do the homes of owner–occupiers without a mortgage and single
pensioners.
The most common reason for private sector homes failing the decent home standard
is poor energy efficiency, through a lack of adequate loft insulation or cavity wall
insulation. Many vulnerable people do not have central heating.
Fuel poverty
Figure 15 shows the number of private sector households in each ward in Croydon
estimated to be experiencing fuel poverty from the BRE study 2008.
103
104
Creative Environmental Networks
CEN analysis of home energy checks 2008.
60
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 15: Fuel Poverty in private sector dwellings – Croydon Wards (BRE study
2008)
Wes t Thornton
625
Bens ha m Ma nor
576
Woods i de
570
Thornton Hea th
550
Norbury
455
Addi s combe
451
South Norwood
445
Broa d Green
443
Sel hurs t
435
416
Croha m
Fa i rfi el d
402
Upper Norwood
399
Shi rl ey
388
Sa nders tea d
382
Hea thfi el d
377
As hburton
371
Coul s don Wes t
363
Sel s don a nd Ba l l a rds
360
Coul s don Ea s t
360
Kenl ey
334
Wa ddon
312
Purl ey
307
201
New Addi ngton
Fi el dwa y
123
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
No. households
The 2008 BRE study estimated 9,600 households in Croydon were in fuel poverty.
Most recent figures for Croydon suggest that fuel poverty is getting worse.
Performance data for national indicator 187 (the percentage of people living in fuel
poverty) given in Figure 16 below shows that the proportion of vulnerable households
living in dwellings with a SAP rating of under 35 rose from 16.5% in 2008 to 21.7% in
2009, whereas those in dwellings with a SAP rating of over 65 fell from 21.7% to
13.7%105. Vulnerable households are taken to be claimants of housing benefit and
105
NI 187 results and analysis: London Borough of Croydon; CEN February 2010. This indicator has
been discontinued
61
Evidence base to April 2012
council tax benefit. Fuel poverty is likely to increase further as more people claim
benefits as a result of rising unemployment and as fuel prices increase; however,
more recent Croydon data is not available.
Figure 16: Fuel poverty among vulnerable households
Fuel Poverty: energy efficiency rating of homes occupied by
vulnerable households in Croydon (NI 187)
100%
90%
13.7
21.7
80%
70%
60%
50%
64.5
61.8
40%
30%
20%
10%
21.7
16.5
0%
Weighted 2008/09
SAP<35
Weighted 2009/10
SAP 35 to 65
SAP>65
Almost half of households experiencing fuel poverty are living in the private rented
sector. Table 37 below shows the breakdown of cases of fuel poverty by tenure in
Croydon shown by the BRE study.
Table 37: Fuel Poverty by Tenure (BRE 2008)
Tenure
Owner Occupier
Private rented
SAP<35
19.8%
49.5%
The proportion of social housing tenants in fuel poverty identified by the BRE study
(31%) is three times that shown by NI 187 data. It should be noted that in 2007 the
Council had 35 homes (0.2% of total stock) with a SAP rating below 40. Figure 17
below sets out Croydon’s performance against NI 187 for 2008/09 and 2009/10,
showing changes by tenure.
62
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 17: Average NI 187 values for Croydon by tenure 2008/09 and 2009/10
Change in energy efficiency by tenure 2008/09 - 2009/10
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
12
11
12
24
70
21
24
65
72
52
61
66
18
2008-9
24
17
24
18
10
2009-10
Owner Occupier
2008-9
2009-10
Private Rent
SAP<35
SAP35 to 65
2008-9
2009-10
Social Housing
SAP>65
Because the sample size of the survey was small, results should be treated with
caution, but energy efficiency of the private rented stock appears to have
deteriorated. Changes may be to do with an increase in the percentage of tenants
claiming housing benefit as a result of the recession.
2008/09 results showed that Croydon has similar rates of fuel poverty in owner
occupied accommodation, lower rates of fuel poverty among social housing tenants in
Croydon than in London, but significantly higher levels among private tenants (24% in
Croydon compared with 17% in London).
HMOs
There are an estimated 3,000 houses in multiple occupation (HMOs) in Croydon, of
which 800 are known to the council. Often the condition of HMOs is worse than that
of average private sector properties; they can lack fire precautions such as smoke
alarms and fire doors, and can be overcrowded, run down, poorly decorated and
generally dirty, indicating a lack of good management. About 11% of HMOs known to
the council have category 1 hazards, these usually relate to excess cold and the risk of
fire. The government introduced mandatory licensing of HMOs in 2006 and the
council has introduced an additional licensing scheme to apply to HMOs with two
storeys occupied by three or more people.
Housing and health
Poor housing conditions contribute to a range of health and social issues.
Overcrowding increases stress and depression; it hampers child development,
educational attainment and employment; it also increases the risk of infant mortality.
Damp and mould affect respiration, and increase absence from work. Poor repair,
poor layout and the presence of hazards lead to falls and injuries, increasing health
care costs, loneliness and isolation and reducing independence among older and
disabled people. Low energy efficiency and fuel poverty exacerbate existing health
63
Evidence base to April 2012
conditions and contribute towards winter deaths. Based on a report by the Chartered
Institute of Environmental Health, Figure 18 below identifies links between poor
housing conditions and healthcare, social care and environmental costs crime and
community stability.
Figure 18: Links between housing conditions and public health
Good Housing Leads to Good Health: A toolkit for environmental health practitioners
(Chartered Institute of Environmental Health). Modified to include social care costs.
Work to improve housing conditions and energy efficiency and remove hazards can
help to reduce fuel poverty, improve health, prevent accidents, reduce hospital
admissions and enable older and disabled people to remain in their homes for longer.
Key issues: housing condition




64
100% of Croydon’s council housing (where decent homes works could be carried
out) met the decent homes standard in April 2012.
Stock condition in the social rented sector is not a significant issue for Croydon’s
housing strategy in terms of generating additional housing need.
Most households prefer an “in situ” solution to seeking to move to alternative
accommodation.
Stock condition in the private sector is a more significant issue for the housing
strategy in that it may generate additional housing need:
- 10% (11,397) of private housing is in disrepair
- 17% (20,086) of private housing has category 1 hazards under the HHSRS
- 24% (28,370) of private housing provides inadequate thermal comfort
- 6% (6,695) of private housing lack modern facilities
- 37% (42,973) of private housing fails the decent home standard
Evidence base to April 2012








65
The estimated cost of removing all private sector category 1 hazards is £227m.
Private rented dwellings are the most likely to be non-decent and to have
category 1 hazards
Just over 50% of vulnerable households in the private sector Croydon live in
decent homes. The cost of achieving the former government target of 70% of
vulnerable households in the private sector living in decent homes is estimated
at £40m.
Private sector housing energy efficiency is relatively good in Croydon compared
to the London average, but Croydon has a greater proportion of the least energy
efficient homes.
The English House Condition Survey data shows poor stock condition is unevenly
distributed but tends to be more prevalent in deprived areas.
Despite local authority activity targeted on vulnerable households in the private
rented sector, the percentage of non-decent homes remains high.
Fuel poverty is increasing nationally and in Croydon. There are more than 9,000
households in fuel poverty in Croydon. Fuel poverty is most effectively tackled
through energy efficiency measures.
Poor housing conditions contribute to a range of health and social issues:
- overcrowding hampers child development and educational attainment
- overcrowding increases the risk of infant mortality
- damp and mould affect respiration
- poor repair, poor layout and the presence of hazards lead to falls and injuries
- low energy efficiency and fuel poverty exacerbate existing conditions and
contribute towards winter deaths.
Evidence base to April 2012
3. CUSTOMER-FOCUSSED HOUSING ADVICE AND OPTIONS
Local authorities have long-standing responsibilities towards housing applicants and
homeless households106. In recent years housing policy has focused on encouraging
local housing authorities to adopt a strategic approach to homelessness by tackling
acute housing need by reducing rough sleeping, actively preventing homelessness
and restricting the use of temporary accommodation for homeless households107.
Housing waiting lists have increased over the past ten years partly due to increasing
housing need but also partly due to applicants being able to apply for housing to
more than one council.
The previous Labour government encouraged local authorities to adopt a ‘choice
based’ approach to housing allocations in order to improve transparency, tenancy
sustainment and engagement. Local authorities were also been encouraged to
consult upon and review their housing allocations schemes to ensure they reflect
local priorities and applicants are clear and realistic about the prospects of being
rehoused108.
Homeless applications and acceptances decreased significantly over several
successive years, as did the use of temporary accommodation, indicating the success
of prevention activity. However, the economic downturn has caused substantial
increases in homelessness in 2008/09 and 2010/11, and a consequent rise in the use
of temporary accommodation in 2010/11.
The coalition government has undertaken significant reforms through the Localism
Act 2011 to the allocation of social housing and to local authorities’ homelessness
duties. The aim of these reforms is to allow local authorities to decide on who
qualifies to join their housing register, as well as allowing the use of private rented
accommodation to discharge the main homelessness duty. These reforms are
expected to impact on the number of applicants on local authority housing registers
and potentially on levels of homeless presentations and acceptances.
The government’s welfare reform programme, in conjunction with a number of
other factors, has had an impact on the options available to local authorities to meet
housing need. Changes in housing benefit, principally the introduction of national
caps to the rates payable, reduction in the basis for setting local housing allowance
(LHA) rates from the median to the 30th percentile of market rents, and the increase
of the age restriction below which only a shared room rate is payable, from 25 to 35,
have restricted the options for people receiving housing benefit, for young people
looking to move on from supported housing and have persuaded a proportion of
landlords to reconsider offering private sector accommodation to households
claiming benefits. The prospect of direct payment of benefits to claimants with the
106
Housing Act 1996, Homelessness Act 2002.
Sustainable Communities: Settled Homes, Changing Lives – A Strategy for Tackling Homelessness,
ODPM (2005)
108
Fair and flexible: statutory guidance on social housing allocations for local authorities in England,
CLG (2009)
107
66
Evidence base to April 2012
introduction of Universal Credit in 2013 is a further consideration for private sector
landlords when deciding who to let their properties to.
The relationship and connection between housing support and homelessness is a
very important one and effective arrangements for the prompt identification of
support needs and referral to appropriate providers is a source of significant savings
for local housing authorities and partner agencies. This section looks at the extent of
rough sleeping in Croydon, levels of homeless and prevention activity. It goes on to
look at how the housing waiting list has changed in recent years and housing
allocation activity. It also looks at levels of housing supply for allocation and how this
relates to housing need in terms of extent and size mix. It closes with a summary of
the key issues for the housing strategy in meeting housing need in Croydon.
Rough sleeping
Rough sleeping is the most visible form of acute housing need. The coalition
government introduced a new method of counting rough sleeping in September
2010 which advised local authorities to speak to the voluntary sector, the police and
other local agencies in order to obtain intelligence on rough sleeping in their local
area109. Table 38 below shows the increase in rough sleeping in the English regions
and nationally. Rough sleeping in London saw the smallest annual increase apart
from the North East which saw a 39 % decrease.
Table 38: Rough Sleeping Statistics England - Autumn 2010 and Autumn 20111: total2 of
rough sleeping counts3 and estimates4, by region
Region
Autumn 20105
Autumn 2011
Change
Number
%
North East
49
32
-17
-34.7
North West
100
149
49
49.0
Yorkshire and the Humber
115
150
35
30.4
East Midlands
121
188
67
55.4
West Midlands
182
207
25
13.7
East of England
206
242
36
17.5
London
415
446
31
7.5
South East
310
430
120
38.7
South West
270
337
67
24.8
413
23.4
England
1,768
2,181
Croydon, like other outer London boroughs, has a small but persistent rough sleeper
problem. Over 2011/12 42 rough sleepers have been seen by outreach teams in the
borough110. Local agencies in Croydon work with around fifteen rough sleepers at a
time, but there is a turnover of individuals: some pass through on the way to the
109
110
Evaluation the extent of rough sleeping – a new approach, DCLG (14/09/2010)
Street to Home – Annual Report 2011/12, Broadway
67
Evidence base to April 2012
south coast and others sleep rough intermittently. One entrenched rough sleeper
with high support needs has been sleeping rough for more than one year; three
other entrenched rough sleepers sleep in Croydon intermittently and are currently
away. Entrenched rough sleepers rebuff attempts by agencies to admit them to a
hostel.
In October 2011 local agencies in Croydon estimated that on any one night eighteen
people are sleeping rough in Croydon. The main issues are ensuring that rough
sleepers make prompt contact with the service they need and developing move-on
options for chaotic rough sleepers living in hostels. Table 39 below shows the rough
sleeping street counts and estimates for London boroughs carried out in the autumn
of 2011.
Table 39: Rough sleeping counts and estimates 2011
LONDON
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
Brent
Bromley
Camden
City of London
Croydon
Ealing
Enfield
Greenwich
Hackney
Hammersmith and
Fulham
Haringey
Harrow
Havering
Hillingdon
Hounslow
Islington
Kensington and
Chelsea
Kingston upon Thames
Lambeth
Lewisham
Merton
Newham
Redbridge
Richmond upon
Thames
Southwark
Sutton
Tower Hamlets
Waltham Forest
68
Total street
count
Total
estimate
Total of street counts and
estimates
281
165
446
7
7
18
15
14
8
13
14
4
7
18
3
6
-
13
14
4
7
7
7
18
18
15
3
6
14
8
15
5
19
8
1
3
45
-
8
1
3
15
45
5
19
18
17
8
5
18
2
10
-
5
18
18
2
10
17
8
10
9
-
4
4
10
4
9
4
Evidence base to April 2012
Wandsworth
Westminster
5
106
-
5
106
Homelessness
The council has a duty to find settled accommodation for households who are
eligible for housing assistance, homeless, in priority need (because they have
dependent children, are expecting a child or are vulnerable through age or disability
for example) and are not intentionally homeless. There are lesser duties to
households who are not in priority need or who are intentionally homeless.
Homelessness prevention
One of the most significant changes in the approach to tackling homelessness in
recent years has been the use of informal action to prevent and relieve
homelessness111. This approach was encouraged in the previous labour
government’s 2005 homelessness strategy and by 2010/11 the number of informal
actions to prevent homelessness in England was nearly double that of statutory
assessment decisions112.
In 2011/12 1,652 cases of potential homelessness were prevented or relived in
Croydon, equivalent to 11.3 per thousand households. This is a significant reduction
on the previous year 2010/11 when 2,810 cases were prevented (19.2 cases per
1,000 households113. 38% of the cases were helped to stay in their existing homes,
compared with almost half (49%) in 2009/10, and the remainder to obtain
alternative accommodation. Our ability to prevent homelessness by enabling people
to remain in their homes declined mainly due to the decrease in successful
conciliation including home visits for family/friend threatened exclusions.
Between 2006/07 and 2011/12 more than 1,600 households have been helped to
access private sector accommodation through the council’s Landlord Deposit
Scheme, but placements have fallen substantially since 2009/10 as mentioned above
due to private landlords’ uncertainty about welfare reform and competition from
working households who are renting because they now have difficulty in accessing
mortgages.
Homeless decisions and acceptances
Table 40 sets out the number of households that approached the council as
homeless and the number accepted with a full housing duty.
Table 40: Homelessness decisions and acceptances, 2002 to 2012
2002/03
111
Total decisions
4,054
Acceptances (full duty)
1,291
Preventing homelessness allows the household to remain in the current home; relieving
homelessness provides alternative accommodation for the household to occupy.
112
Table 2.5.3 (p.85) UK Housing Review 2011/12, Pawson & Wilcox, CIH, Heriot-Watt University and
University of York (2012)
113
Live Table 792: Outcomes of homelessness prevention and relief (DCLG)
69
Evidence base to April 2012
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
4,671
4,044
2,309
1,047
1,765
1,617
2,086
2,176
2,279
1,240
1,126
581
340
429
449
426
575
839
In 2011/12 2,686 households approached the council as homeless and a full housing
duty was accepted towards 839 households. Of the remainder, a partial duty was
accepted towards 147 households, and 1,703 applications were not accepted114.
The figures above show a significant decrease in homeless approaches from 2002/03
to 2008/09, but sharp increases in 2009/10 (29%), 2010/11 (16%) and 2011/12
(46%) compared with previous years. The decline reflected the government’s policy
focus on homelessness prevention, tackling rough sleeping and the use of temporary
accommodation for homeless households115. The subsequent increase in
homelessness seems to be the result of the economic downturn, the stress this is
placing on families and the delayed reaction to the recession.
Reasons for homelessness
In 2011/12, the main causes of homelessness were parental eviction (25% of
applications), eviction by family and friends (22%), domestic violence (10%) and loss
of private rented accommodation (16%). The main increases in homelessness in the
three years 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12 have been:




parental evictions which have increased by 84% (116 to 214)
evictions by friends and relatives which have increased 116% (86 to 186)
loss of an assured shorthold tenancy (the usual/default tenancy granted for
private rented accommodation) tenancies which have increased by 136% (56 to
132)
homelessness due to domestic violence has increased by 52% (50 to 76)
The majority of homeless applications (67%) in 2011/12 were made by female lone
parents with dependent children. 14% of applications were made by couples with
dependent children.
Croydon was the first borough in London to halve its use of temporary
accommodation, nearly two years ahead of the government’s 2010 target. On 1
April 2012, 1,749 households were in temporary accommodation, 49% of the 2004
baseline (3545). Following a 66% reduction in homeless households in temporary
accommodation to 1267 between 2002 and 2010, the number of households in
temporary accommodation has increased over the past two years by 38% to 1749 at
114
Source: CLG P1e data
Sustainable Communities: settled homes; changing lives - A strategy for tackling homelessness,
CLG (2005)
115
70
Evidence base to April 2012
the end of March 2012. The reversal of this downward trend is due to the rise in
homelessness described above, leading to a rise in placements in temporary
accommodation, the reduction in the supply of social housing to rehouse people
already living in temporary accommodation, and new case law which requires any
private sector placement made within 28 days of homelessness to be regarded as
temporary accommodation, rather than prevention of homelessness.
Of those in temporary accommodation in March 2012, 37% were in the private
rented sector under various arrangements, 41% were in council homes, and 21% in
emergency (bed and breakfast) accommodation.
The use of private sector accommodation for households facing homelessness,
either as a prevention placement or as temporary accommodation had meant the
council had been able to allocate more housing to non-homeless households in
recent years. The percentage of all new tenants who are homeless households had
therefore been falling consistently, from 80% in 2002/03 to 37% in 2009/10.
However, as homelessness has risen, so the percentage has begun to rise once
again. In 2011/12 48% of new tenants were homeless households; 24% of new
tenants were homeless households that were occupying a council home as
temporary accommodation and whose tenancy was “made permanent”.
18% of people who applied as homeless in 2011/12 were found to have no priority
need, 39% were found not to be homeless and 6% were found to have become
homeless intentionally. There is no legal duty to find accommodation for nonpriority households but they are given advice and assistance, and are placed in the
appropriate band of the housing waiting list and considered for rehousing through
that route. Most non-priority applicants are single people and childless couples
between the ages of 18 and 59.
Housing waiting list
In April 2012 there were 1.84 million people registered on English local authority
housing waiting lists, with more than a fifth registered in London. Since 2006 the
number of applicants on housing waiting lists nationally has increased by more than
200,000.
In 2006 Croydon’s housing waiting list, at 9,353, ranked as the 15 th largest of the 33
London Boroughs. Merton had the least with 3278 applicants registered and
Newham had the most with 29,574 households on the list. Of the 9,353 applicants
registered in Croydon 2,639 were homeless and 4,812 were households in housing
need. There were also 1,406 council and 702 housing association tenant households
registered for a transfer. Table 41 shows how the number of applicants on the
housing waiting list in Croydon and how these numbers have changed between 2006
and 2012.
Table 41: Housing register, April 2006, April 2011 and April 2012
Housing Register
71
Of which,
homeless
Of which,
in housing need
(bands 1-3)
Evidence base to April 2012
2006
2011
2012
9,353
7,880
8,658
2,639
1,144
1,385
3,606
4,700
6,752
By 2010 Croydon’s housing waiting list had grown by 3% and was ranked 16 th largest
of 32 London boroughs (data for Lewisham was unavailable). The increase in housing
waiting lists is due to a number of factors including the operation of “open” waiting
lists since 2003, the regularity with which some individual lists are managed, but also
and most tellingly due to the affordability of market housing. In March 2011, the
council removed applicants with no housing need, and the total fell to 7880, but the
waiting list was still ranked 17th largest in London. The numbers on the council’s
housing waiting list grew by a further 9% between March 2011 and March 2012. This
reflected the growing number of applicants in bands 1-3.
Between 2006 and 2012 the “makeup” of housing need captured in the housing
waiting list has changed considerably. Up to 2010 there were marked reductions,
due mainly to unusually high levels of housing supply in 2008/09 and 2009/10, when
nearly 2,500 households were rehoused. Thereafter, levels of need have begun to
rise due to a reduction in the supply of housing.
The number of applicants in the highest need, Band 1, fell from 325 housing register
and 394 transfer applicants in 2006 to 248 and 345 applicants respectively in 2010 (a
decrease of 18% over four years). However, since 2011 Band 1 applicants have risen.
In 2012, it was 322 and 355 respectively. The number of Band 2 applicants also fell
from 3,588 housing register and 198 transfer applicants in 2006 to 1,752 and 169
respectively in 2010 (a bigger decrease of 49%). Again, this rose from 2011 and in
2012, Band 2 applicants were 2571 and 257 respectively.
The trend in Band 3 applicants, who have lower needs and a much lower chance of
receiving offers of accommodation, has been upwards throughout the period, from
2,332 to 3,859 (57%) between 2006 and 2012, the rate of increase accelerating in
2010/11. Band 3 social housing tenants registered for a transfer, which had been
largely stable between 2006 and 2010, rose by 11% in 2010/11 from 720 to 797, and
by a further 10% in 2011/12 to 877.
The anticipated reduction in supply over the next few years is likely to mean that, in
future, those with higher levels of need in bands 1 and 2 will increase on the waiting
list, with significant implications for waiting times and quality of life.
Overcrowding and under-occupation
According to the 2001 Census, 4,365 households (3.1%) across all tenures were
overcrowded, of which 1,546 (1.1%) were severely overcrowded (more than 1.5
people per room). The overall level of overcrowding increased from 2.9% since the
1991 census. The level of overcrowding in council rented housing increased
between 1991 and 2001 from 5.87% to 6.05%, and severe overcrowding has more
than doubled. The council’s overcrowding strategy sets out the current
overcrowding situation in Croydon. Using the bedroom standard116 it is estimated
116
English Housing Survey Household Report 2009/10 – CLG July 2011
72
Evidence base to April 2012
that some 630,000 households in England are overcrowded, of which 273,000 are in
the social rented sector117. Estimates of bedroom standard overcrowding in London
based on a three year average over 2007/10 suggest it has increased to:
 16.1% of households in the social rented, and
 10.6% of households in the private rented sector
The number of households on the housing register lacking one or more bedrooms
according to Croydon’s current housing allocation policy rose from 3123 in 2010 to
4,040 in 2011 (a 29% increase). The council will consult on a proposal to adopt the
bedroom standard for the assessment of housing need and allocation of
accommodation in 2012. This will mean that some applicants will be considered to
be less overcrowded than previously or will no longer be considered to be
overcrowded. In 2010 there were 1,924 applicants on the housing register who
were overcrowded according to the bedroom standard.
72% of overcrowded households were living in private accommodation or with
friends and family. The growth of overcrowding in this sector was greater than in
social housing: the number of housing applicants who were overcrowded increased
by 38% in 2010/11 compared with a 10% rise in applications from social housing
tenants.
The CLG estimates that 72,000 tenants are under-occupying properties in the social
rented sector in London. The Census 2001 showed 35% of single pensioner
households and 60% of multiple pensioner households were under-occupying their
homes. This would suggest that in Croydon more than 11,000 households in all
tenures were under-occupying in 2001. In March 2011 there are 195 social housing
tenants registered for a transfer to smaller accommodation.
The Welfare Reform Bill includes a provision to restrict the housing benefit of underoccupying social housing tenants of working age to the rate for a more appropriate
size of property from April 2013. Initial analysis in December 2010 established that
Croydon there were 1,207 potential under-occupiers of working age occupying
council housing. Of these, about 800 could be in receipt of housing benefit. Of the
1,207, 495 occupied 2 bedroom properties, 653 occupied 3 bedroom properties, 59
occupied 4 bedroom properties. There is a high risk of increased rent arrears and an
increased demand for transfers to smaller dwellings in the social housing sector on
the one hand and greater demand on housing options and a higher number of
homelessness applications from private tenants on the other. This will be
compounded by the fact that more people will move onto JSA in future years as
eligibility for employment and support allowance and incapacity benefit is restricted.
Availability of housing for older people
In 2011/12 148 units of sheltered or special sheltered housing were allocated to
applicants and 55 were allocated to transfer applicants.
117
English Housing Survey Household Report 2009/10 – CLG July 2011
73
Evidence base to April 2012
Generally speaking, applicants wanting general needs housing were willing to accept
one-bedroom properties and most were flexible about which part of the borough
they would consider. Single people were far more likely than couples to opt for
sheltered housing. This perhaps supports the findings of an Age Concern survey
showing that nearly half of single householders were unhappy living on their own.
Two focus groups held for applicants aged fifty and over on the housing register
elicited a range of views about what people want from either general needs or
retirement housing. Key features included: ground floor accommodation (preferably
bungalows) in good condition, and in a quiet neighbourhood close to public
transport.
Housing supply
The annual supply of existing social housing available to let is affected by a number
of factors including the ability of tenants to move into other tenures, vacancy rates
(affected by transfers, evictions and demographic factors) and the impact of
government policies such as the right to buy. Limits to discounts, increases in house
prices and tighter lending criteria for mortgage finance has seen right to buy sales
fall to single figures in recent years. Figure 19 shows the level of housing need in
terms of applications for housing from applicants, homeless households and council
and housing association tenants needing to transfer. The data for 2010/11 reflects
the removal of applicants with no housing need from the housing register.
Figure 19: Housing need in Croydon 2004/05 to 2011/12
Figure 20 below shows the level of social housing supply made up of council-owned
rented accommodation, registered social landlords’ rented accommodation,
including newly developed dwellings, and private rented accommodation secured for
housing applicants in housing need. The level of social housing vacancies has been
declining in recent years as a result of increasingly limited opportunities for tenants
to move to alternative accommodation in the private sector due to the increase in
house prices. Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only
sufficient meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of
74
Evidence base to April 2012
households on the housing waiting list and homeless households. As a result social
housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent housing need.
Figure 20: Housing supply in Croydon 2004/05 to 2011/12
Key issues: housing need






75
Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only sufficient to
meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of
households on the housing waiting list and homeless households. As a result
social housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent
housing need and access to the private sector offers the only prospect of
meeting the remainder of housing need.
Applications from homeless people fell by 51% between 2002/03 to 2008/09,
but then rose sharply by 16% in 2010/11 and by 46% in 2011/12
The number of homeless households admitted to temporary accommodation
fell dramatically between 2002/03 and 2007/08. Since then this trend has
reversed and numbers have risen sharply in 2010/11 and 2011/12 (by 38%).
Homeless households in priority need to whom the council accepts a full
housing duty similarly fell after 2004/05, but rose for the first time in 2010/11
to 575 and increased again in 2011/12 to 839
The most significant cause of the increase in homelessness in the last two
years is the rise in parental evictions, and exclusions by relatives and friends
(75% over three years); homelessness due to loss of private tenancies also
rose by 85% over this period
Croydon was the first London borough to achieve the government target of
halving the use of temporary accommodation. The total number of
households in temporary accommodation had fallen by two thirds between
December 2004 and April 2010, to 1,267. However, since then the number
has increased to 1,478 in March 2011 and 1749 in March 2012, as a result of
the recent increase in homelessness and reduction in access to social and
private sector housing.
Evidence base to April 2012










76
The changes to LHA are making it harder for the council to place homeless
households in private tenancies and for people to access the private rented
sector themselves. The council and LHA claimants are competing with people
in stable employment who would previously have bought their home but,
because of greater difficulty in obtaining mortgages, now have to rent.
Perhaps more significantly, the anticipated migration to Croydon from more
expensive areas elsewhere in London, estimated at 550 households, will put
pressure on local housing.
From January 2012, the limit of HB to the shared accommodation rate will
apply to single tenants age 25 to 34, in addition to under 25s, affecting
around 950 existing private tenants in Croydon. Although homeless hostel
residents will be exempt, this measure will increase the demand for shared
accommodation. This, combined with the restriction of HB to the 30 th centile
of market rent increases the risk of single homelessness, silting up of hostel
places for young people and increasing the number of homeless 16 and 17
year olds in B&B hotels.
As families from more expensive parts of London increase demand for family
homes in Croydon, there is a risk of reduced availability of shared housing for
under 35s, who are likely to be limited to accessing unregistered houses in
multiple occupation.
There are 797 potential under-occupiers of council housing who are of
working age and claiming housing benefit; the reduction in their benefit from
April 2013 may lead to rent arrears and increase the demand for transfers to
smaller dwellings
In October 2011 there were an estimated 18 rough sleepers on a typical night
in Croydon. Only one person had slept rough for more than a year; three
others who sleep in Croydon intermittently were away at the time. The main
issues are reducing the number of rough sleepers in hostels who return to
the street, developing move-on options for chaotic rough sleepers living in
hostels and ensuring rough sleepers get referred promptly to the services
they need, in particular mental health services.
In 2001, over 4,000 households across all tenures (3.1% of households in all
tenures in Croydon) were overcrowded, of which 1,500 were severely
overcrowded. The highest levels were amongst council tenants. In 2010
there were 1,924 applicants who were overcrowded according to the
government’s bedroom standard. The number of households registered on
the housing waiting list for a move to larger accommodation (not all
overcrowded according to the bedroom standard) increased by 29% in
2010/11.
There is also a wide variety of needs – from families, lone parents, single
people, older people and those with disabilities - giving rise to competing
demands for social housing.
A high proportion of those in housing need are from vulnerable and minority
groups.
Social housing supply available each year for allocation is only sufficient to
meet between 8% and 10% of existing housing need in the form of
households on the housing waiting list and homeless households. As a result
Evidence base to April 2012
social housing is only allocated to those households in the most urgent
housing need and access to the private sector offers the only prospect of
meeting the remainder of housing need.
77
Evidence base to April 2012
4. ACHIEVING INDEPENDENCE THROUGH HOUSING SUPPORT
Housing support enables vulnerable people to become and stay independent. It
enables people to manage everyday activities, such as budgeting and paying bills,
planning meals and shopping. It enables people to live a normal life, to participate in
their community and pursue social or leisure interests. It also includes adaptations
and other services that help older or disabled people to stay more healthy and
mobile. It contributes to reducing admissions to hospital, cutting how long people
stay in hospital and preventing delayed discharge from hospital. Housing support can
be provided in purpose built accommodation with support staff or by providing
services to people in their own homes (known as “floating support”).
Housing support enables people leaving an institution such as hospital or prison or
recovering from addiction or a traumatic experience to regain independence and
resilience. It helps older people and people with learning disabilities or mental
health problems to achieve and sustain independent living. It helps prevent people
from experiencing crises and the need for more intensive intervention, avoiding
additional costs to health, social care, probation and homelessness services. It is a
positive, cost effective and person-centred service that saves more than £3 for every
£1 invested.
Supporting people was introduced in 2003 to combine a number of streams of
housing support funding into a coherent programme delivered by local authorities.
In 2005 the programme was reformed to ensure authorities adopted a strategic
approach to programme delivery, established a strategic commissioning function
and focused on service quality and value for money. Since 2003, in all but one year,
the real term core funding for Supporting People in Croydon has reduced. This has a
double edged impact in forcing providers to be innovative and do ”more with less”.
From April 2011 Supporting People funding is paid to local authorities as part of the
formula grant. Grant conditions on the use of Supporting People funding were lifted
in 2009 and local authorities are free to use the funding to meet their priorities.
There have been numerous reports of local authorities cutting Supporting People
expenditure in order to meet the overall reductions in local authority expenditure
required as part of the government’s deficit reduction strategy.
Housing related support
Supporting People is the commissioning and regulatory framework for housingrelated support services. Housing related support is provided to vulnerable people in
the following client groups:






78
young people at risk, teenage parents and people leaving local authority care
older people, including frail elderly people and people with dementia
people with physical, sensory and learning disabilities
people with mental health problems
homeless people, including single people, families, rough sleepers, people
experiencing domestic violence and refugees
other vulnerable groups including ex-offenders, and people misusing drugs and
Evidence base to April 2012
alcohol.
Housing-related support can be provided through purpose-built accommodation,
known as supported housing, or through “floating” support where a support worker
visits someone at their home.
In 2006, the GLA, National Housing Federation and the Housing Corporation published
Building for All118 to assist London boroughs with assessing the need for supported
housing. The report used detailed analysis of Supporting People client record forms,
research and published statistics to arrive at estimates of the overall supported
housing need in each borough. The report was accompanied by a technical appendix
and toolkit that allowed boroughs to use local prevalence, need or accommodation
data to refine the estimates.
The toolkit estimates the prevalence of each client group in the general population,
describing this as the “population at risk”, and then goes on to estimate the
proportion of the client group likely to need housing-related support, described as the
“population in need”. It then projects the growth in the populations of vulnerable
groups likely to need housing support over the ten years from 2006 to 2016. Table 42
sets out Croydon’s estimated “populations at risk” and “populations in need” for 2006
and 2016.
Table 42: Supporting People client groups – estimates of populations at risk and
populations in need
2006
At risk
Older people with support needs
Older people with dementia/MH issues
Frail elderly
Single homeless
Rough sleepers
People with MH issues
People with LD
People with PD
People with HIV/AIDS
Drug misuse
Alcohol misuse
DV
Refugees/asylum seekers
Travellers
Teenage parents
Young people leaving care
Young people at risk
Offenders and those at risk
Mentally disordered offenders
Homeless families with
118
79
8,196
2,746
1,045
1,809
0
39,313
4,522
33,284
943
2,035
16,732
15,007
113
45
320
315
17,240
702
28
925
In need
3,114
275
230
60
0
856
588
333
100
54
155
50
22
3
106
125
159
93
9
305
2016
At Risk
9,126
3,060
1,163
1,901
0
41,313
4,753
34,980
991
2,139
17,585
15,930
119
48
337
294
18,111
745
30
972
In need
3,468
306
256
63
0
900
618
350
105
56
162
53
24
3
111
116
167
98
10
321
Evidence base to April 2012
support needs
The Building for All methodology produces an estimate of the number of clients likely
to need supported housing in each client group, through analysis of client record
forms, and compares this to the number of units of supported housing actually
provided. The toolkit takes account of the overlap between different supporting
people client groups and deflates the gross estimates of additional units to take this
into account, as follows:
“There is, inevitably, a degree of overlap between different client groups: some single
homeless people are also drug users, some people with learning difficulties also have
physical or sensory disabilities and so on. The model deals with this by assuming that
this overlap occurs at a standard rate within each of the ‘super-client groups’. The
overlap is estimated as being:



33% for all socially excluded groups
20% for all older persons’ groups
50% for all people needing support with care.119
Taking account of the overlap between client groups Croydon has no need for
additional supported housing up to 2016 and changes in individual client groups can
be met from within the overall existing provision of supported housing through
reconfiguring services.
Future need for housing-related support
The Building for All toolkit provides a useful methodology for estimating overall
housing support needs, however, it does not capture local trends that fall outside the
data used in its projections. Boroughs are encouraged to substitute or supplement
local data where it differs substantially from the model estimates. In Croydon there
are a number of client groups for which the need for housing support has begun to
change quite dramatically in recent years:



119
The number of young people (18 to 25 years old) with learning disabilities and
packages of care who have been referred through from the children and young
people department to the adult services and housing department for continuing
care has been steadily increasing will have a direct impact on the demand for
supported housing.
The number of people presenting as homeless because of domestic violence.
Demand from teenage parents appears to be falling. There has been an overall
downward trend in the numbers of homeless, pregnant 16 and 17 year olds
approaching and accepted as homeless.
Building for all – Identifying the need for supported housing in London – Technical report and
appendix, National Housing Federation (2006).
80
Evidence base to April 2012
Move on
One key requirement for providing successful, efficient housing support is sufficient
housing resources to enable those only needing support in the short-term to move on
to a permanent home when the time comes. Over the past few years Croydon, in
common with other boroughs in London, has been working hard to prevent
supported housing schemes from “silting up”, with clients ready but unable to move
on due to a decrease in the availability of permanent housing. The council’s move-on
quota (a specific number of council and housing association homes to be allocated to
applicants ready to move on from supported accommodation) and the Croydon Rent
in Advance Scheme (CRIAS) have been successful in this regard.
National Indicator 141 (NI 141) measures the extent to which clients move on from
supported housing in a planned way to more independent living. Since NI 141 was
introduced, planned moves have been increased from 451 in 2007/08 to 2,817 in
2011/12.
Transformation in adult social care
Adult services policy has in recent years sought to enable people receiving care or
support to achieve or maintain greater independence and exercise more choice and
control over how and where they receive services. Among other things this
transformation has resulted in a significant and sustained reduction in the use of
residential care. The proportion of people assisted through community-based
services in Croydon has been increasing every year. Table 43 shows, by client group,
the numbers of people assisted through residential and nursing care and through
community-based services (in their own homes or supported housing).
Table 43: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through
community-based services, 2007/08 to 2009/10
Type of assistance
Number
Adults with disabilities, aged 18 to 64*
Community-based service
2,237
Residential/nursing care
502
Total
2,739
Adults aged 65 and over
Community-based service
4,781
Residential/nursing care
1,113
Total
5,894
change,
07/08 to
09/10
%
Number
%
Number
%
82
18
2,817
548
3,365
84
16
3,231
350
3,581
90
10
+ 994
- 152
+ 842
81
19
5,240
1,078
6,318
83
17
5,882
882
6,764
87
13
+ 1,101
- 231
+ 870
The transformation of adult social care challenges traditional models and over the
next few years will have a profound impact on:
 The use of residential care
 The use of traditional sheltered and extra care housing
 The number of older and disabled people living independently in their own homes
 the demand for adaptations, disability access and the market for equipment and
81
Evidence base to April 2012


aids
the demand for intermediate housing to reable people leaving hospital
the use of assistive technology, telecare, alarms and remote
Home adaptations
Most older people, disabled people, or people who are vulnerable do not require
anything other than standard housing, however, a number need physically adapted
housing or support so that they can manage their homes or their day-to-day lives.
There is increasing demand for adaptations, equipment and telecare services as a
result of government policy and from our ageing population which is gradually
increasing the economic and social necessity to find ways of supporting people at
home rather than in institutional settings.
Age and disability do not necessarily give rise to the need for adapted housing and
housing-related support, so demographic data in relation to older and disabled
people cannot provide an accurate picture of demand. However, population trends
are likely to have an effect on demand. The POPPI (Projecting Older People
Population Information) and PANSI (Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information)
data systems have been developed for the Department of Health by the Institute of
Public Care (IPC) and they provide population and health data at a borough level
about older people, learning disability, physical disability and mental health. Table 44
sets out the current and projected populations for the main groups relevant to this
chapter; all groups will see significant increases over the next 10 years.
Table 44: Predicted population of older people and people with disabilities, Croydon, 2010,
2015 and 2020
2010
Population aged 65 & over
Population aged 18 to 64 with a
moderate or severe physical
disability
Population aged 18 to 64 with a
moderate or severe learning
disability
Population aged 18 to 64 with a
mental health problem*
2015
2020
Increase
2010 - 2020
44,600
48,500
51,700
16%
21,175
21,979
23,083
9%
1,199
1,237
1,277
7%
1,643
1,680
1,718
5%
Source: Department of Health, POPPI & PANSI predictions, October 2010, includes people with an
antisocial personality disorder or psychotic disorder
The council also provides help to people who need major adaptations to their home.
The major adaptations service receives around 700 referrals every year. The most
common types of adaptation are level access showers, stair lifts and ramps, with an
average cost in the region of £10,000.
The housing need survey undertaken in 2002 estimated 3,500 people in Croydon were
living in homes which were unsuitable due to a physical or sensory disability and that
80% of adaptations could be carried out to the property currently lived in. The total
82
Evidence base to April 2012
cost of undertaking all required adaptations was estimated at £62.5m (2002 prices).
Almost all (87%) of the requirement for adaptations was to owner-occupied
properties.
We have an estimated 500 people in Croydon needed wheelchair-accessible homes
and the majority of this need can be met by adapting existing homes. Around 400
people are referred to the council each year for assistance with adaptations and
about 200 receive assistance. In 2011/12 the council assisted 147 households
through a Disabled Facilities Grant.
Help with repairs, adaptations and maintenance
The Staying Put service helps older and disabled people with adaptations by liaising
with occupational therapists, carrying out surveys, finding reliable builders and
providing support throughout the works. It receives more than 1800 referrals every
year. In 2011/12 we supported 1608 people through this scheme. Staying Put in the
Garden helps people maintain their gardens helping to eliminate hazards and
prevent crime.
Age UK Croydon’s handyperson scheme, commissioned by the council, carries out
minor jobs to keep homes in good repair and free of safety hazards. These very
minor interventions can have a significant impact on people by reducing falls and
accidents. Our handyperson scheme provided minor repairs and odd jobs at a reduced
cost to 75 people over 60 years of age or disabled in 2010/11. The Safe Project
provides help with minor safety measures such as locks and key boxes.
Impact and fit with modern social care practice
The council has had a major transformation programme in place since the publication
of Putting People First. As a result, people are increasingly more likely to remain in
their own homes. Table 43 shows, by client group, the numbers of people assisted
through residential and nursing care on the one hand, and through community-based
services (in their own homes or supported housing) on the other. Over the three
years to 2009/10 the number of people assisted has increased, however, there has
also been a clear reduction in the use of residential care and the proportion of people
assisted through community-based services has increased in response. These figures
support the conclusion that there is not an additional need for extra care housing as
the demand for this service is similar to that for residential care.
Table 45: Placements in residential and nursing care versus people assisted through
community-based services, 2007/08 to 2010/11
2007/8
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11
Type of assistance
Number % Number % Number % Number %
Adults with disabilities, aged 18 to 64*
Community-based service
2,237 82
2,817 84
3,231 90
3165 90
Residential/nursing care
502 18
548 16
350 10
354 10
Total
2,739
3,365
3,581
3519
Adults aged 65 and over
83
Evidence base to April 2012
Community-based service
Residential/nursing care
Total
4,781
1,113
5,894
81
19
5,240 83
1,078 17
6,318
5,882
882
6,764
87
13
4,328 82
909 18
5237
Source: Department of Health RAP returns
* includes people with learning or physical disabilities, and mental health needs
Key issues: housing support







84
The population groups who have specific housing requirements in order for them
to live independently within the community are increasing. Between 2010 and
2020, the number of older people is likely to increase by 16%, and the numbers
with physical disabilities, learning disabilities and mental health problems by
between 5% and 9%.
Preventative services such as adaptations and telecare are leading to reduced
reliance on residential care and an increased tendency for people to remain in
their own homes; residential care placements have fallen by 150 and 230 for
older people and younger adults with disabilities respectively between 2007/08
and 2009/10.
The 2002 housing need survey estimated that 3,500 people are living in homes
which are not appropriate because of their physical disabilities. 6,700 people
need an adaptation to help them manage better.
Demand for help with adaptations is increasing and outstrips the funding
available with the result that waiting times are unacceptably long.
Demand for other services which help people stay put are also increasing
There is no outstanding need for additional accommodation-based supported
housing although some current provision requires replacement or modernisation
to better meet need, and, over time, some will need conversion in order to cater
to different client groups. However, this level of provision can only be adequate
if residents can move on to independent housing in a timely fashion: an
estimated 10% are currently ready to move but unable to because of limited
access to social or private rented housing.
The demand for all types of housing support is likely to increase in relation to the
growing number of people within vulnerable population groups and the rise in
homelessness.
Evidence base to April 2012
5. MANAGING AND SUSTAINING GREAT PLACES TO LIVE
Croydon is a borough of contrasts and there are clear differences between areas in
terms of tenure, ethnicity, health and deprivation. Generally, the north of the
borough is more densely populated and displays inner-city characteristics, while the
south is much less densely populated, wealthier with an older population structure.
The south east is an area of largely social rented housing and has higher levels of
deprivation.
The effective management of social housing blocks and estates makes a significant
contribution to the success of local communities and is an important element in
ensuring the successful implementation of the spatial vision. This section looks at
those aspects of housing management that contribute to improve outcomes for
communities in Croydon and some of the cross cutting issues that are particularly
associated with social housing including:





Community safety
Community engagement
Health and well-being
Deprivation and worklessness
Provision for children and young people
Community safety
Community safety is an important issue for local residents and is frequently
identified in surveys by tenants as their primary concern. The British Crime Survey
(BCS) 2009/10 shows nationally crime decreased significantly between 1995 and
2005; however, since then there has been little change. The BCS is a nationally
representative sample survey (based on more than 45,000 respondents) of the
population resident in households in England and Wales. As a household based
survey, the BCS does not cover all offences or all population groups. Police
recorded crime covers more offence types (including drug offences) and covers the
entire population; however, it does not include crimes not reported to the police.
Levels of crime in Croydon have largely followed the national trend, and Croydon
enjoys slightly lower crime levels than London as a whole for each category of crime,
except for fraud or forgery offences120. Table 46 below shows the change in the
number of offences with significant decreases in burglary, fraud, theft and criminal
damage; however, there has been a very significant increase in drugs offences from
676 in 1999/2000 to 3038 in 2008/09, however, latest figures for 2011/12 show a
significant decrease in drugs offences to 2460.
120
Offence categories are violent crime, sexual offences, robbery, burglary, theft and handling, fraud
or forgery, criminal damage, drugs and other notifiable offences.
85
Evidence base to April 2012
Criminal Damage
Drugs
4,720
3,779
4,131
4,115
3,769
3,230
3,582
3,464
3,681
4,044
4,356
4,491
13,274
12,582
13,386
13,853
12,687
11,565
12,017
10,251
9,337
10,130
10,861
10,928
4,484
3,136
3,806
3,572
3,533
3,121
2,900
2,073
1,616
1,862
1,726
1,900
7,012
6,487
6,386
5,657
5,737
5,474
5,079
5,014
4,715
4,557
3,835
3,544
676
715
760
1,141
861
782
1,048
1,515
2,466
3,038
2,300
2,460
Grand total
Fraud or Forgery
1,094
1,568
2,095
1,888
1,771
1,496
1,845
1,829
1,677
1,407
1,660
1,832
Other Notifiable Offences
Theft and Handling
302
392
384
427
384
411
352
354
372
397
470
482
Burglary
5,880
6,327
6,206
7,642
7,944
8,604
7,763
6,741
6,370
6,926
6,630
6,680
Robbery
1999/2000
2000/1
2001/2
2002/3
2003/4
2004/5
2005/6
2006/7
2007/8
2008/9
2010/11
2011/12
Sexual Offences
Violence Against the person
Table 46: Criminal offences 1999-2012 - Croydon
301
235
296
323
357
321
273
269
353
422
447
443
37,743
35,221
37,450
38,618
37,043
35,004
34,859
31,510
30,587
32,783
32,289
32,760
Table 47 below shows the decrease in the overall number of offences committed in
Croydon over the past six years.
Table 47: Offences – Croydon (Met Police Crime Figures)
2004/05
Total
offences
35,004
2005/06
34,859
2006/07
31,510
2007/08
30,587
2008/09
32,783
2010/11
32,289
2011/12
32,760
The crime sub-domain of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 shows the areas in
Croydon that experience higher rates of the four major types of criminal activity
(violence, criminal damage, robbery and burglary) that cause the greatest
victimisation. In Croydon these areas are Croydon town centre, district centres,
neighbourhoods in the north of the borough and major social housing estates.
The fear or worry about crime, measured by the British crime survey as the
percentage of people with high levels of worry about crime, has decreased
nationally since 1992121. Statistics on the fear of crime are not available at a
borough level; however, the 2008 place survey asked a sample of local residents in
each local authority area questions about how safe they felt outside at night, about
anti-social behaviour and the about the extent of problems such as litter and
vandalism. In London:

121
44% of people felt safe or very safe outside after dark, compared to 40.8% in
British Crime Survey 2008/09 Table 5.07 Trends in worry about crime, 1992 to 2008/09.
86
Evidence base to April 2012


Croydon.
48.5% of people felt teenager hanging around the streets was a very big of fairly
big problem, compared to 45.4% in Croydon.
39% of people felt vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage was a very big
of fairly big problem, compared to 35.6% in Croydon.
Consultation carried out by the Safer Croydon Partnership found that the top 5
concerns of Talkabout Croydon survey respondents (914) were:





Rubbish or litter lying around (44%)
Young people hanging around on the streets (41%)
Property crime (30%)
Cars parked inconveniently, dangerously or illegally (28%)
Vandalism, graffiti and other deliberate damage to property or
Vehicles (26%)
The Safer Croydon Community Safety Strategy 2011-2014 is available to download
from the council’s web site
http://www.croydonobservatory.org/docs/strategies/1166217/1166588/safstrat
From April 2011 to December 2011 council tenants reported 2,005 new incidents of
anti-social behaviour. The table below sets out the type of new incidents of antisocial behaviour reported in the first nine months of 2011/12
Alcohol/drunkenness
Animal problem (dangerous/faeces)
Arson
Burglary
Car damage
Car theft
Communal area
Disability abuse
Domestic noise (inc DIY)
Domestic violence
Drugs
Garden/property maintenance
Graffiti
Gun/knife/weapon related crime
Harassment
Homophobic behaviour
Intimidation
Loud music
Neighbour dispute
Offensive graffiti
One off acute/serious incidents/ or crime
Parking/working on old cars/abandoned vehicles
87
49
88
55
0
0
0
491
2
115
0
52
179
11
37
171
0
0
69
157
0
0
0
Evidence base to April 2012
Pets (inc barking dog)
Physical assault
Property issue
Prostitution/kerb crawling/sexual acts
Racial harassment
Rubbish
Supplying/dealing/using class A drugs
Threats
Use of unlicensed motorised scooters
Using or allowing the use of the property for illegal or
immoral purposes
Vandalism
Vehicles/cycles etc
Verbal abuse
Vexatious complainant
Youth related/bullying
TOTAL
39
0
54
4
8
251
22
0
0
0
85
66
0
0
0
2005
In 2011/12 the council
 obtained 1 ASBO and 1 interim ASBO
 agreed 9 acceptable behaviour contracts (ABC)
 served 40 notices to quit and notices of seeking possession
 helped 55 victims of domestic violence and hate crime through the sanctuary
project
 obtained 19 injunctions and court undertakings
 were granted 11 possession orders
 evicted 3 anti-social tenants
 closed 2 premises responsible for excessive noise and nuisance
Community engagement
Community cohesion
The 2008 place survey asked a sample of Croydon residents whether they agreed
that people from different backgrounds got on well together. 76% of Croydon
residents agreed with the statement, which is very close to the average for London
and England.
Tenant satisfaction
The 2008 tenant satisfaction survey was carried out on behalf of the council by Ipsos
MORI. A random sample of Croydon tenants was selected, 3,000 questionnaires
were sent out and 970 returns were received representing a response rate of 33%.
The survey asked tenants a series of questions including how satisfied they were
with the council as their landlord; the results were as follows (change from 2006
survey in brackets):

88
Satisfaction with overall services, a key National Indicator measure, stands at
72%, approximately the same as in 2006. Ipsos MORI Frontiers analysis suggests
Evidence base to April 2012
that this level of satisfaction is close to what would be expected given local
circumstances.
Satisfaction with repairs and maintenance 72% (+4%)
Satisfaction with neighbourhood as a place to live 70 (+8%)
Satisfaction with final outcome of contact 63% (+4%)
Value for money for rent 75% (same)
Satisfaction with opportunities for participation 53% (same)
Keeping tenants informed 72% (-2%)






The chart below shows the consistent level of overall tenant satisfaction we have
achieved since 2000.
Health and wellbeing
Overall health in Croydon is similar to the England average. Average life expectancy
is above average for men and women; the death rate from all causes has fallen and
is lower than the national average for men and has fallen for women and is similar to
the national average; early death rates from heart disease, stroke and cancer have
also fallen in the last ten years.
Croydon has higher than average rates of infant and neonatal mortality,
In 2009/10 Croydon’s Joint Strategic Needs Assessment examined geographical
health inequalities in Croydon, including differences in life expectancy and mortality
rates between Croydon’s most deprived and least deprived areas122. The key
findings were:

122
Life expectancy in Croydon is increasing at the same rate for all, but there is gap
between the most deprived 10% of areas and the least deprived 10% of 10.6
Tackling health inequalities – a programme for action, DH (2003). Introduced PSA target
89
Evidence base to April 2012

years for men and 5.7 years for women123.
All cause all age mortality rates are also falling across the borough at roughly the
same rates in the most deprived and least deprived areas. However, the
mortality rate was 760.3 per 100,000 for the most deprived 20% of areas and
410.5 per 100,000 for the least deprived 20% of areas. Figure 24 below shows
the distribution of all cause, all age mortality rates across Croydon’s LSOAs.
Figure 21: All age, all cause mortality rates, Croydon LSOA 2002-2007



123
Excess deaths are the deaths from different causes that make up the gap
between the most and least deprived quintiles in Croydon. Circulatory diseases,
cancers and respiratory diseases cause the majority of excess deaths when
comparing mortality between the most and least deprived 20% of areas in
Croydon.
Coronary heart disease is the single biggest cause of death in Croydon. It is
significantly associated with deprivation and makes the biggest single
contribution to the gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived
parts of the borough.
The most deprived 20% of areas in Croydon has double the coronary heart
This is as measured by the 2003-07 slope index of inequality indicator used in the NHS World Class
Commissioning assurance framework. Males = 10.6 years (95% confidence interval: 8.9 to 12.33);
Females = 5.7 years (95% confidence interval: 3.4 to 8). Source: Association of Public Health
Observatories www.apho.org.uk/resource/view.aspx?RID=75050
90
Evidence base to April 2012

disease mortality rate than the least deprived 20% of areas124.
The most deprived 20% of areas in Croydon also has double the mortality rate
from cancers of the trachea, bronchus and lung than the least deprived 20% of
areas125.
Deprivation and worklessness
Vulnerable people and deprivation
The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) provides a relative ranking of areas across
England according to their level of deprivation. It ranks 32,482 Lower Super Output
Areas (LSOAs) in England against 37 different indicators covering specific aspects of
deprivation including:




Income
Employment
Health and disability
Education




Skills and training
Barriers to housing and services
Living environment
Crime.
Croydon has 33 out of 220 LSOAs in the 20% most deprived areas in England. These
are concentrated in Croydon’s major housing estates and in the north and west of
the borough, such as Waddon or New Addington. There have been a number of
changes in the most deprived LSOAs in Croydon between IMD 2004 and 2007;
however, broadly speaking the situation is very similar with significant deprivation
concentrated in the north and south-east of the borough. Figure 25 below shows
the most deprived 20% of LSOAs in Croydon in the IMD 2004 and IMD 2007.
The most deprived quintile has a coronary heart disease mortality rate of 138.5 deaths per 100,000
population (95% confidence interval: 126.4 to 151.6). The least deprived quintile has a rate of 64.4
deaths per100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 58.5 to 70.8).
125
The most deprived quintile has a death rate from these cancers of 57.5 per 100,000 population
(95% confidence interval: 49.7 to 66.5). The least deprived quintile has a rate of 24.4 deaths per
100,000 population (95% confidence interval: 20.6 to 28.8).
124
91
Evidence base to April 2012
Figure 22: IMD 2004 and 2007, Croydon
Only one LSOA in Croydon falls within the 5% most deprived areas in England.
However, four areas fall within the 6-10% bracket and a further twenty-eight fall
within the 11-20% bracket.
Twenty nine LSOAs in Croydon fall into the 20% least deprived (most wealthy) areas
in England. These are located in eight wards in Croydon in the south of the borough.
Selsdon and Ballards has six areas in the least deprived 20%.
Children and young people
The following issues are particularly relevant to the lives of children in Croydon and
to the opportunity they have to gain a good start in life and thrive.
Overcrowding: Nationally, applying the bedroom standard, 2.7% of households are
overcrowded, however, overcrowding in London is significantly higher at 6.8% of all
households. Croydon’s level of overcrowding is comparable to the average of
overcrowding in outer London of 12% using the census measure of overcrowding.
More than half of overcrowded households live in deprived areas; it
disproportionately affects the social rented sector and has an adverse effect on
health, children’s physical development and education. The Overcrowding Reduction
Strategy, published in January 2010 was commended by the CLG. The strategy’s key
actions include:




92
Delivering 50-64 new council homes
Ensuring 30% of new affordable homes have 3 bedrooms
Ensuring 20% of new affordable homes have 4+ bedrooms
Carrying out 17 extensions and 1 de-conversion between 2009-11
Evidence base to April 2012
Looked after children: Croydon has a very high number of looked after children
compared to the London and national average due to the location of a UK border
agency Public Enquiry Office at Lunar House on Wellesley Road. In 2009 nationally
there were 60,900 looked after children in England, including 10,690 in London.
Croydon were responsible for 1075 looked after children, more than three times the
London average. In 2009/10 we provided private sector accommodation for 185
care leavers.
ASB and diversion through play schemes: Looking at 2009/10 we focused action on
creating diversionary opportunities to reduce youth offending and gang-related
crime, including
 allocating the £200,000 youth provision budget, with the involvement of
local residents, to provide youth activities on estates: 25 generic, four
targeted and eight sports sessions contributing
 obtaining £150,000 Playbuilder government funding for natural play areas on
three social housing sites (one a joint project with Amicus Horizon HA)
 through the DAAT we reviewing service arrangements and establishing a colocated team of workers to support around 180 vulnerable young people
with substance misuse needs.
Housing management service – the key figures
Providing an effective housing management and maintenance service is crucial to
the providing an environment that supports and maintains the continued
development of a strong successful community. The links between poor
maintenance, the broken window effect, and incidence of vandalism, anti-social
behaviour and crime are well known. Similarly the absence of effective housing
management, particularly involving an absence of any presence on housing estates
and the absence of resident participation is also associated with the decline of an
estate and the area it is situated in.
The annual business plan statistical appendix returns provides a wide range of
housing management and maintenance performance data from the average energy
efficiency of a council home, to the average time taken to attend to an urgent repair,
to the percentage of rent collected. This data provides a good picture of a landlord’s
overall performance. The charts below show Croydon’s performance compared to
other London boroughs from 2002/3 to 2011/12.
Note on charts:
Green upper quartile – shows the range of London boroughs performance from the
upper quartile to the maximum or minimum value (depending upon whether a
higher or lower value represents better performance)
Orange upper mid quartile – shows the range of London boroughs performance
from the median to the upper quartile
Orange lower mid quartile - shows the range of London boroughs performance from
the lower quartile to the median.
93
Evidence base to April 2012
Red lower quartile - shows the range of London boroughs performance from the
lower quartile to the minimum value (depending upon whether a higher or lower
value represents better performance).
Percentage of non-decent homes: This performance indicator measures the
progress a local authority has made towards meeting the government’s decent
homes target. Croydon is one of the few London boroughs to have achieved the
decent homes target and has consistently been in the top 25% of performers in
London since 2004-05.
The Percentage of Non-Decent Homes
100%
90%
% Non decent homes
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
42% 38%
23%
30%
20%
20%
17%
10%
10%
8%
4%
0%
0%
0%
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Upper Quartile
Upper Mid Quartile
Lower Mid Quartile
Lower Quartile
Average time taken to relet a council dwelling: This indicator counts the number of
days it takes the local authority to repair and relet a council home. Croydon’s
performance has shown a significant improvement since 2002-03, reducing the
average relet period by 12 days. This performance has been very close to the
London average over the past four years.
94
Croydon
Evidence base to April 2012
Average energy efficiency rating (SAP) of a council home: This performance
indicator looks at the average energy efficiency rating of a council home as
measured through a standard assessment procedure (SAP). The SAP was revised
recently to use a slightly different scale (1 to 100 rather than 1 to 120) to measure
the energy efficiency (SAP 2005) and this revision was applied to the performance
indictor in 2009-10. This accounts for the reduction in rating across the board in
2009-10. Croydon’s performance has been consistently been in or very close to the
top 25% of London boroughs over the past nine years.
The Average SAP Rating of Council Homes
90
85
79
80
78
76
75
70
65
71
72
2004-05
2005-06
69
70
2009-10
2010/11
66
65
60
55
50
2002-03
2003-04
Upper Quartile
95
Upper Mid Quartile
2006-07
2007-08
Lower Mid Quartile
2008-09
Lower Quartile
Croydon
Evidence base to April 2012
Overall tenant satisfaction with the landlord: This performance indictor measures
how satisfied a sample of council tenants are with the performance of the council as
their landlord. The survey was last carried out in 2008 and Croydon’s satisfaction
rating fell slightly from 74% to 72%, however, overall tenant satisfaction in Croydon
has been consistently over 70% since 2000 and has been in the top 25% of London
Boroughs over the past ten years.
% tenants satisfied with landlord
Overall satisfaction with the landlord
80%
74%
73%
74%
2003-04
2006-07
72%
60%
40%
2000-01
Upper Quartile
Upper Mid Quartile
Lower Mid Quartile
2008-09
Lower Quartile
Croydon
Overall housing management performance: The data set out above shows Croydon
has made consistent improvements in most areas of its housing management service
over the past eight years, and has been a front runner in making council homes
decent, delivering tenant satisfaction and improving the energy efficiency of its
dwellings.
Key issues:
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Crime in Croydon has fallen significantly in recent years in line with the national
trend
The boroughs crime hot spots are in and around the town centre
Complaints about anti-social behaviour on council estates mainly concern noise
and environmental nuisance such as graffiti, rubbish and untidy gardens
However, residents of Croydon still express concern about crime and about
personal safety
The borough has pockets of significant deprivation scattered throughout the
borough, although generally concentrated more in the north, central and south
east
Croydon’s most deprived areas map onto the borough’s major housing estates in
the north and west of the borough, such as Waddon or New Addington
Life expectancy in Croydon is increasing at the same rate for all, but there is gap
between the most deprived 10% of areas and the least deprived 10% of 10.6
years for men and 5.7 years for women
Croydon’s housing management service has delivered significant improvements
over the past eight years
Evidence base to April 2012
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Croydon has been in or very close to the top 25% of London boroughs in
delivering tenant satisfaction, decent homes and improving the energy efficiency
of council homes
Evidence base to April 2012
6. CONCLUSION
The most telling evidence in the evidence base is that showing the decline in house
building since the 1980’s. The contribution made by local authorities to housing
supply in the 1950s and 60s has not been matched by housing associations in recent
decades. The Barker Review clearly identified the scale of the problem in 2004;
however, to date the house building targets we have set ourselves as a country have
not been met. This progressively acute problem of declining housing supply has
contributed to many of the challenges we are currently grappling with including
housing affordability, homelessness and rough sleeping, worklessness, lack of
mobility, residualisation, polarisation and social exclusion.
Population growth is the other significant issue. In areas of the country such as
London, population growth not only increases housing demand, it also leads
increases housing need as a result of the increasing diversity of the population.
Other demographic pressures including the increasing age profile of the population,
the increasing life expectancy of people with physical and learning disabilities and
the increasing number of people with complex needs result in further pressures to
increase the supply of affordable housing.
Croydon has both cheaper house prices and cheaper rents than most of London, but
by the same token our residents tend to earn less. Croydon has the highest level of
mortgage possession claims in London and one of the highest levels of rent
possession claims which suggests that far more of our residents living in market
housing are at the very limits of their resources and more vulnerable to the impact
recession and economic fluctuations than other areas of London.
Croydon was the first borough to halve its use of temporary accommodation and has
seen significant reductions in homelessness over the past few years. There are
worrying signs of increasing homelessness following the credit crunch and recession,
however. It is estimated we do not need any additional supported housing in
Croydon in the near future, however, there are a number of client groups for which
the need for housing support has begun to change quite dramatically in recent years
including an increase in young people with learning disabilities, people presenting as
homeless because of domestic violence and a decrease in the number of teenage
parents needing support.
The council, a local authority landlord, has been one of the front runners in London
in many areas of housing management, including making council homes decent,
improving their energy efficiency and in delivering tenant satisfaction.
The housing strategy for Croydon will need to take on the challenges of affordability,
population growth and an increasingly diverse and ageing population that are
common to all areas of London and the South East. It will also have to contribute to
delivering Government policy in terms of decent homes, tackling homelessness and
improving the energy efficiency of our housing and reducing carbon emissions.
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Evidence base to April 2012
It will also need to show the way in areas where Croydon is one of the leaders such
as homelessness and community engagement.
Croydon’s housing strategy will also need to address some of the issues that are
particularly significant to the borough such as:
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affordable housing for households on low incomes
providing housing for young people with learning disabilities in transition
domestic violence through providing support, intervention, accommodation
and additional security and protection
identifying and delivering housing suitable for wheelchair users to meet
current unmet need
entrenched rough sleeping though outreach, joint working and befriending
We hope you have found the evidence base informative, thought provoking and that
it has clearly set out the issues to be considered in developing a housing strategy
that will take us forward to 2015. However, if you have any queries concerning the
information included in this document, or wish to discuss any of the points made
please contact the housing strategy manager in the department of adult services,
health and housing, the contact details are provided below:
Write to: David Morris, housing strategy manager, DASHH, Croydon council, Taberner
House, Park Lane, Croydon CR9 3JS
Telephone: 020 8726 6000 ext 60539
Email: [email protected]
Web site: www.croydon.gov.uk/democracy/consultations/housing-strategy
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