1 (1)
Datum
2017-02-07
The Swedish Police Authority
Swedish National Forensic Centre (NFC)
Scale of conclusions
The scale of conclusions is based on the logical approach and is constructed
exclusively for evidence evaluation at NFC.
Level +4
The results of the examination extremely strongly support that …
The results are extremely more probable if the main hypothesis is true compared to if the alternative hypothesis is true.
Level +3
The results of the examination strongly support that …
The results are much more probable if the main hypothesis is true compared to
if the alternative hypothesis is true.
Level +2
The results of the examination support that …
The results are more probable if the main hypothesis is true compared to if the
alternative hypothesis is true.
Level +1
The results of the examination support to some extent that …
The results are somewhat more probable if the main hypothesis is true compared to if the alternative hypothesis is true.
Level 0
The results of the examination support neither … nor …
The results are equally probable if the main hypothesis is true compared to if
the alternative hypothesis is true.
Level –1
The results of the examination support to some extent that … was not …
The results are somewhat more probable if the alternative hypothesis is true
compared to if the main hypothesis is true.
Level –2
The results of the examination support that … was not …
The results are more probable if the alternative hypothesis is true compared to
if the main hypothesis is true.
Level –3
The results of the examination strongly support that … was not …
The results are much more probable if the alternative hypothesis is true compared to if the main hypothesis is true.
Level –4
The results of the examination extremely strongly support that … was not …
The results are extremely more probable if the alternative hypothesis is true
compared to if the main hypothesis is true.
If one of the hypotheses can be excluded other terms are used, such as “it is”,
“it is not” or “it can be excluded that”.
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