Transitions
Population and Economic
Trends For Northern
Colorado
EDCC
2017
Elizabeth Garner
State Demography Office
Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Demography.dola.colorado.gov
Transitions to Watch
• Disparate growth across state.
• Industrial transitions
◦
Retail – consolidation
◦
Manufacturing – more automation
◦
Transportation – more automation
◦
Construction – more automation
• Aging – will impact economy.
• Increase racial and ethnic diversity
• Growing and slowing
Big Picture - 2015-2016 Pop Change
• US – 323.1 million, + 2.2 million or .7%
• Colorado - 5,540,500
• Ranked 7th fastest 1.7% - UT, NV, ID, FL,
WA, OR
• 8th absolute growth 91,700 – TX, FL, CA,
WA, AZ, NC, GA
• Range in Colorado
•
+14,000
•
-50
Northern Colorado Popula on
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Larimer
300,523
305,267
310,965
316,605
324,709
333,869
339,993
Weld
254,164
258,629
263,997
270,182
276,163
285,053
294,932
NFR
554,687
563,896
574,962
586,787
600,872
618,922
634,925
Weld 2nd fastest and 6th in total change since 2010
Larimer 5th fastest and 7th total since 2010
Age
Larimer
In
Weld
Denver
Boulder
Jefferson
El Paso
Out
Weld
Boulder
Denver
Arapahoe
Adams
Net
El Paso
Jefferson
Douglas
Collin TX
Taylor TX
Net Non CO
Texas
California
Iowa
Wyoming
Massachusetts
Weld
In
Larimer
Adams
Boulder
Jefferson
El Paso
Out
Boulder
Larimer
Adams
Denver
Jefferson
Net
Adams
Douglas
Pueblo
Larimer
Morgan
Net Non CO
California
South Carolina
Arizona
Wyoming
Texas
Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration
100,000
New Jobs
Net Migration
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-20,000
-40,000
State Demography Office v2015
Employment
NOCO
Larimer Weld
NOCO
Growth
2016
2016
2016 2010-16
153,103
18,175
100,215
7,744
253,318
25,919
48,005
5,867
8,518
5,688
14,206
2,220
798
3,982
4,780
853
3,006
1,213
4,219
859
10,426
17,295
9,410
9,289
19,836
26,584
6,026
2,573
3,673
3,018
6,691
372
21,111
9,318
30,429
5,942
2,950
964
3,914
93
860
13,321
1,442
13,420
2,302
26,741
709
5,919
498
5,493
5,991
2,550
4,314
2,347
6,661
1,392
10,662
2,587
13,249
2,524
Public Administration
7,926
5,210
13,136
843
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
2,721
1,279
4,000
815
18,582
3,151
10,062
3,423
28,644
6,574
4,585
1,794
737
385
1,122
109
4,359
3,929
8,288
1,963
Total, All Industries
Accommodation and Food Services
Transitions:
Retail - Consolidation
Manufacturing – automation
Transportation – automation
Warehousing - automation
Administrative and Waste Services
Agriculture
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Construction
Educational Services
Finance and Insurance
Health Care and Social Assistance
Information
Management of Co.
Manufacturing
Mining, Oil, Gas
Other Services, Ex. Public Admin
Professional and Technical Services
Retail Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
QCEW 2016 Annual
Economic Drivers
Basic/Driver
Local Resident
Service
Ratio
Larimer
Weld
107,985
78,168
82,530
76%
53,025
68%
AGE
Why Are We Getting Old Fast?
• Currently very few people over the age 65.
◦
6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015
• Baby Boomers
◦
Born 1946 – 1964
◦
1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015)
• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 77%
larger than it was in 2015 growing from 719,000
to 1,270,000. (primarily from aging)
• Transition age distribution from “young” to more
US average between 2015 and 2030.
State Demography Office, Census Bureau
Growth in young adults
due to migration
AGE
Demographic
Dividend
Aging
Aging Issues
• Numbers
• Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends
◦
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Impact on occupational mix
Labor Force
Housing
Income – Downward Pressure
Health
Disabilities
Transportation
Public Finance – Downward Pressure
Labor Force Tightening
• Largest share of population in highest labor
participation rates hit peak in 2010.
• Boomers aging out – but many staying longer
◦
◦
Participation rate of 65+ increase from 14% in 1990 to 19% 2010
Approx. 1,000,000 workers aging out the next 20 years. Largest
increase in leavers between 2015-2025
• Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%.
• Fewer Gen X
• Oldest Aged Industries - Education, Health, Utilities,
Mining, Govt., Transportation.
• Higher un/under employment for 18-34 year olds during
recession.
• Lowest unemployment region in lowest unemployment
state.
Median Home Value
Commuting
to Jobs In
Larimer
and Weld
2014 Data
Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
More Racially and
Ethnically Diverse
Census Bureau
Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population,
2015-2020
American
Indian, NH
Black, NH
White, NH
Asian, NH
Hispanic
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Growing and Slowing
Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration
100,000
New Jobs
Net Migration
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
-20,000
-40,000
State Demography Office v2015
Larimer and Weld Growth Rates
Forecast – Fastest Region in State
Summary in Northern Colorado
Migration – how much, where, and can we compete for the
best and the brightest? The Right Fit
Aging – we are getting old fast, is NOCO ready for the
changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix (job
growth), housing, etc.
Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor
force. Educational attainment gap continues putting
downward pressure on income and labor force.
Industrial transitions – Ready for the transitions? What
are your biggest risks or constraints?
Automation, Consolidation - Retail
Plan for the Transitions – Discuss and Design,
Implement when needed. What would we do if…….
Thank you
State Demography Office
Department of Local Affairs
Elizabeth Garner
[email protected]
303-864-7750
Demography.dola.colorado.gov