CONSTRUCTING A BI-REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX FOR QUEBEC AND THE REST-OF-CANADA by David Bahan, Laurence Bargaud, Danielle Bilodeau and Camille Courchesne Institut de la Statistique du Québec Ministère des Finances du Québec1 to be presented at the Fourteenth International Conference on Input-Output Techniques October 10-15, 2002, Montréal, Canada 1 The General Equilibrium Model is the property of the Ministry of Finance of Québec (MFQ). However, opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors, who are solely responsible for them. PREFACE Because they are capable of tracking complex economic interactions, as well as their effects on agents' behavior, general equilibrium models are extremely powerful tools for the analysis of economic and fiscal policy. In the spring of 2000, the Ministry of Finance of Québec decided to acquire such an analytical tool. It mandated the Centre de Recherche en Économie et Finance Appliquées (CRÉFA) at Laval University to develop a general equilibrium model adapted to the specific features of the Québec economy. The Institut de la Statistique du Québec (ISQ) contributed to the success of the project by agreeing to participate actively in developing the model, and assumed the task of constructing the underlying social accounting matrix. To ensure that the model responds to the needs of the Ministry of Finance of Québec, the CRÉFA team, led by Bernard Decaluwé, André Lemelin and Véronique Robichaud, and the ISQ team, under Camille Courchesne, David Bahan and Danielle Bilodeau, worked in cooperation with Ministry of Finance staff, especially Brian Girard, Éric Genest-Laplante and Xavier Brosseau. In the hands of Ministry of Finance of Québec, the computable general equilibrium model is a highly efficient tool to better understand the complex implications of economic and fiscal policy, with the aim of better decision-making. This analysis is based on the general equilibrium model of the Ministry of Finance of Québec and on the social accounting matrix constructed by the ISQ. However, the authors are solely responsible for the interpretation of these data. Constructing a Bi-Regional Social Accounting Matrix for Quebec and the Rest-of-Canada Abstract The model is based on a social accounting matrix (SAM) which describes the structure of the Québec-Canada economic system for reference year 1996. The SAM was constructed so as to be consistent, in the first place, with the principal aggregates of the national accounts, and, secondly, with Statistics Canada's input-output tables, while satisfying the usual internal consistency rules. The model, and consequently the underlying SAM is very detailed, and as detailed for the Rest-of-Canada as for Quebec, save for the various levels of government. The industry and goods classifications are close to Statistics Canada's M-level input-output aggregation : 56 industries, 121 commodities, and 48 categories of personal consumption expenditure. Investment is detailed between 13 different categories. There are 150 household types in Québec and 155 in the Rest-of-Canada, defined by household composition, income level and age group. Factor demand distinguishes 11 types of labour and two types of capital (corporations and unincorporated business). This paper will describe the general structure of the bi-regional SAM, with special emphasis on the supra-regional accounts. The process of constructing the SAM will then be discussed : data sources, methods of disaggregation, adjustment procedures, balancing, etc. Finally, the main difficulties encountered in the process will be commented upon. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. STRUCTURE OF THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX 2. DISAGGREGATION OF ACCOUNTS 3. DATA SOURCES 4. CONSTRUCTION OF THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX 1. STRUCTURE OF THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX Bi-regional SAM Overall structure Québec Rest of Canada Rest of the World Québec Rest of Canada Rest of the World Domestic transactions Exports from Québec to the Rest of Canada International exports Imports from Québec from the Rest of Canada Domestic transactions International exports International imports International imports 2. Bi-regional SAM Domestic transactions matrix for Québec QUÉBEC Factors Agents Products Remuneration of factors Factors Agents Industries Income Transfers QUÉBEC Domestic production Industries Products Final consumption Intermediate consumption 3. Bi-regional SAM Reflecting the integration of financial markets Supra-regional accounts Québec Rest of Canada Québec Rest of Canada Accumulation Supraregional accounts Rest of the world Accumulation Rest of the world Internal transactions Exports of Québec to the Rest of Canada Investment in Québec International exports Imports of Québec from the Rest of Canada Internal transactions Investment in the Rest of Canada International exports Savings in Québec Savings in the Rest of Canada International imports International imports 4. Bi-regional SAM The Federal government Québec Rest of Canada Fed.Gov. expenditures In Québec Québec Fed.Gov in Québec Fed.Gov. revenues in Québec Fed. Gov expenditures In the RoC Rest of Canada Surplus (+) or deficit (-) Accumulation Suparegional Supra-regional Consolidated Federal government Fed. Gov. in Québec Consolidated Federal government Surplus (+) or deficit (-) in Québec Fed. Gov. revenues In the RoC 5. 2. DISAGGREGATION OF ACCOUNTS Disaggregation of accounts Households — 150 categories for Québec (155 for the RoC) • 7 types of households • 6 income classes • 4 age groups Goods and services — 121 goods and services • Modified Statistics Canada level M • Statistics Canada level W for goods and services with special taxation regime 6. Disaggregation of accounts Production — 56 industries • Modified Statistics Canada level M • 3 levels of government • Separate treatment of the main government intervention sectors (public health and education services) 7. Disaggregation of accounts Québec government — — — — — 6 transfer programs to persons 8 types of indirect taxes 3 types of social contributions Personal income tax Corporate income tax Federal government — — — — — 7 transfer programs to persons 7 types of indirect taxes 3 types of social contributions Personal income tax Corporate income tax 8. Disaggregation of accounts Supra-regional accounts — Accumulation — Consolidated federal government — Investment income — Rest of the World 9. 3. DATA SOURCES Data sources National and Provincial economic accounts Input-Output tables for Québec and Canada Database of the Social policy simulation model (SPSD/M) Other sources — Administrative data files from the Ministère du revenu du Québec — Special compilation from the Commission de la santé et sécurité au travail 10. 4. CONSTRUCTION OF THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX Construction of the SAM Difficulties encountered — Divergence of concepts between surveys and the National account system — Confidentiality of the canadian inputoutput tables — Non standard flows 11. Future development Updating the SAM for 1997 — Revised data from the national and provincial economic accounts. — 1997 Input-Output tables Extensions — Using the NAICS classification for industries — Using the SOC91 for workers — Adding the disctinction between minimum wage and non-minimum wage workers 12.
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