SCOTLAND
A multi-option survey identifies ‘the will of the people’.
www.deborda.org
1
REFERENDUM OR ‘PREFERENDUM’?
The yes-or-no question asked in Syria for the ‘re-election’ of Bashar al-Assad was inadequate, not least
because there was only one candidate.
The yes-or-no question asked in Crimea was similarly deficient, not least because there were no
Ukrainian options.
And the yes-or-no question in Scotland’s referendum also fails to cater for the complexity of the issues
involved. A multi-option, preferential ballot would be more appropriate.
2
BACKGROUND
The Scottish debate was originally on three options: option A, the status quo; option B, devo-max - and
another option, independence. There is a third UK option, option C, as in the next para, so let an
independent option with the pound sterling be called option D; one with the Euro, option E; or another,
with a Scottish coinage, option F.
In negotiations between Westminster and Holyrood, the proposed three-option ballot on options A, B
and (a sort of) D, was changed to a two-option question. The debate has thus morphed into an
argument between loosely defined versions of options B and D.
3
THE LATEST POLL, A 1ST PREFERENCE ONLY ANALYSIS {results below in para (i)}
A recent multi-option poll confirms that any two-option question is indeed inadequate. 859 Scots were
asked to cast their preferences on six options: the above five plus option C, a federal UK variation of
devo-max. In all, therefore, there were three UK-type options, and three independence-type.
If analysed on the first preferences only, the most popular outcome is option A followed by option F.
Options B and D take 3rd and 4th place respectively, while C and E are the least popular. In any ballot
between B and D, therefore, the outcome will probably be determined by the A and F supporters, i.e., it
will depend upon those who actually want something else; that or ‘the don’t knows’.
4
THE LATEST POLL, AN ANALYSIS BASED ON ALL CAST PREFERENCES{results in para (ii)}
The democratic process should allow all to influence that which thereby becomes the multiple
confluence. In so allowing persons to express their preferences, it is possible to identify the collective
will. This survey suggests option B is the most popular, with option A a close second, thus indicating
that the will of the Scottish people is a policy of moderate devo-max.
5
THE POLL
The survey was commissioned by the de Borda Institute and undertaken by TNS.* Of those 859 asked
to take part, 848 agreed to do so, and 805 submitted valid votes: 659 were a full slate of six
preferences, with a total of 164 different opinions being expressed. The remaining 146 partial ballots
listed from five to one preferences, and these too showed considerable variety of opinion.
In both analyses, opinions were weighted, as per the TNS report.
6
CONCLUSION
People (let alone elected representatives) are perfectly capable of casting preferences, not only in multicandidate elections, as in Scottish local elections under PR-STV, but also in multi-option decisionmaking, be it in multi-option referendums (or in multi-option votes in the elected chamber).
Accordingly, whenever a question of complexity arises, the democratic process should allow either all
concerned and/or their representatives to participate in the choice of options; it should cater for the
given decision-makers to cast their preferences; and it should identify that policy which enjoys the said
electorate’s highest degree of overall support. Democracy, after all, is for everybody, not just a
majority.
Peter Emerson
Director, the de Borda Institute
36 Ballysillan Road, Belfast BT14 7QQ
www.deborda.org
[email protected]
02890711795
/
07837717979
Full details of the questions asked etc. may be found on www.deborda.org
*
http://www.tnsglobal.com/uk
_________________
(i)
A 1ST PREFERENCE ONLY, PLURALITY VOTE ANALYSIS
A
F
B
D
C
E
(ii)
OPTIONS
Status quo, in UK…
Independence, separate currency…
In UK, devo-max…
Independence, the pound…
In a federal UK, devo-max…
Independence, the Euro…
Totals
295.29
202.35
102.08
69.50
68.46
54.99
A MODIFIED BORDA COUNT, MBC, ANALYSIS OF ALL THE CAST PREFERENCES
In an MBC, nobody votes against any body or any thing. Rather, people cast their preferences for the
various options, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm. It is then possible to identify that option
which enjoys the highest degree of collective support: i.e., that which best represents ‘the will of the
people’.
Preferences cast are awarded points: in a 6-option survey, a person may express up to 6 preferences,
and points are awarded as follows:
a)
those who express all six preferences give their 1st option 6 points, their 2nd option 5 points,
rd
their 3 option 4 points, and so on;
b)
those who express, say, just three preferences, gives their 1st option 3 points, their 2nd option 2
points, and their 3rd option 1 point;
c)
while those who express a mere single preference give that option only 1 point.
B
A
C
D
E
F
OPTIONS
In UK, devo-max…
Status quo, in UK…
In a federal UK, devo-max…
Independence, the pound…
Independence, the Euro…
Independence, separate currency…
Totals
2712.36
2670.86
2495.31
2372.39
2124.78
2082.71