Visioning Alternatives
in the Sacramento
Region
Lake Arrowhead Conference
October 14, 2007
Mike McKeever
SACOG
Executive Director
Sacramento Area
Council of
Governments
6 counties
22 cities
2.2 million people
How to Best
Manage Growth?
An Aging
Population
Data from Center for the Continuing Study
of the California Economy
Housing Preferences – 55
and over moving in 1 to 5
years (Robert Charles
Lessor survey, 2003)
• 34% want attached product
• 32% want detached small lot single family
• 32% want detached large lot single family
New Home Product Mix –
Growth through 2050
PRODUCT TYPE
% ALL NEW
UNITS
28%
TOTAL NEW
UNITS
231,280
Small Lot Single Family
33%
272,580
Large Lot Single Family
36%
297,360
Other
3%
24,780
Attached Products
Adjustments for
Economic Realities?
• Today 38% rent
• In survey, 25% say their next move will be
“rental”
• Average expected home purchase price is
$214,000
• How much should we:
– Plan products they can afford to buy?.. vs.
– Assume the will continue to have to rent
Base
Case
Urban
Footprint
— 2050
Total
1,058 Sq. Mi.
Preferred
Scenario
Urban
Footprint
— 2050
Total
701 Sq. Mi.
Urban
Footprint
— 2035
Total
324 Sq. Mi.
Regional Poll, 2004
(Wirthlin Worldwide):
Growth Dominates List
of Issues
What would you say is the most important issue facing the
Sacramento region at this time? (results among total sample)
Growth
Issues
56
Pocketbook /
Economic
14
Social Issues
13
Environment
Education
9
5
Overall, Current
Feeling About Growth
Is Negative
Based on what you know, would you say this growth will be
generally a good thing or a bad thing for quality of life in this area?
Bad Thing
Region TOTAL
Sacramento County
Sacramento City
Placer Country
El Dorado County
Yolo County
Sutter County
Yuba County
-71
-69
-69
-73
-80
-76
-63
-66
Good Thing
25
29
31
20
16
19
30
26
Growth Principles
Tested
Positive or negative impact on quality of life?
Positive or negative impact on your retirement years?
•
•
•
•
Preserve open space
Transportation choices
Use existing assets
Jobs closer to where
people live
• Offer housing choices
• Distinctive, quality design
• Manage real growth
boundaries
• Encourage compact
development
• Mixed land uses
All Principles Seen
As Having Positive
Impact
7.0
6.0
Positive Retirement
Negative Quality of Life
Positive Retirement
Positive Quality of Life
Negative Retirement
Negative Quality of Life
Negative Retirement
Positive Quality of Life
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Attitudes Change if
Principles Followed
Before
Principles of
Growth
Discussed
After
Discussing
Principles of
Growth
71
-46
25
35
62
37-point jump in “good thing”
Growth Good Thing
Growth Bad Thing
+27