CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Daily Report of China Bond Market 2013-5-7 1. Yield Curves Analysis and Comments on the Market (1) Data and Statistics Money Market Data: PBC conducted 28-day Repurchase with an amount of 55 billion yuan: The money supply remains stable. Domestic Market Data: Stock Market Fluctuations: The Shanghai Composite Index slightly rose by 4.4 points to 2235.57 point. Bond Market Performance: To be specific, Treasury bond yield curve (3Y 5Y&10Y) went up by 1-5BP to 3.00%, 3.10% and 3.43%. The Central Bank bill curves remain stable. Inter-bank fixed-rate policy bank bond yield curve and Inter-bank fixed-rate policy bank bond yield curve (China Development Bank) generally went down with a margin of 1-2BP. Refer to the bids of floating-rate policy bank bond yield curve (China Development Bank), Inter-bank policy bank bond floating-rate spread (SHIBOR) slightly decreased. The corporate bonds yields continued the decent trend. CP&Notes(AAA 3Y & 5Y) went down by 2-3BP to 4.26% and 4.65% based on the transactions of 1382147 and 1382178. CP&Notes(top tier AAA 4Y & 5Y) went down by 3-4BP to 4.40% and 4.41% as a result of the transactions of 1182271 and 1282156.In terms of low-rating bonds, the transactions of 1282155 and 1382051 pulled CP&Notes(AA+ 4Y & 5Y)down by 1-2BP to 4.86% and 4.98%. 1 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Trend of Treasury Bond Yield (10Y) Changes of Inter-bank Fixed Rate Treasury Bond Yield Curve (Key terms) 0 0.08 0.17 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 30 40 2013/5/6 1.8264 2.5417 2.6128 2.5952 2.7139 2.7843 2.8008 2.9733 3.0029 3.1349 3.147 3.3363 3.3402 3.3834 3.4256 3.4354 3.7719 4.0134 4.1673 4.2459 50 4.3266 2013/5/7 Difference(BP) 1.5064 -32.00 2.5587 1.70 2.6127 -0.01 2.5902 -0.50 2.7195 0.56 2.79 0.57 2.8052 0.44 2.9664 -0.69 2.997 -0.59 3.0898 -4.51 3.0962 -5.08 3.3295 -0.68 3.3245 -1.57 3.3715 -1.19 3.4256 0.00 3.4261 -0.93 3.7682 -0.37 4.0127 -0.07 4.167 -0.03 4.2456 -0.03 4.3264 -0.02 (Edited by Huang Shan) (2) Voices of the Market The following translation is for reference only and does not represent the point of view of the translator or CCDC. 1. New bank lending predicted to slow in April 2 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD New yuan loans extended by Chinese banks in April could fall to as low as 700 billion yuan ($113 billion), down from March's 1.06 trillion yuan, as economic growth falters, analysts have warned. With the central bank expected to release new lending and social financing figures this week, Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, said economic data for the first quarter suggests the economy still lacks momentum, indicating only moderate credit demand. "Fewer deposits among banks at the beginning of a quarter would usually restrain lenders from extending more loans, due to fixed loan-to-deposit ratios," he said. Although stronger supervision of non-bank financing activities could channel some financing demand back into traditional banking loans, Lian added new loans in April will probably fall from March levels. Net new loans increased to 1.06 trillion yuan in March, close to January's level, and registered a 12.2 percent growth year-on-year in the first quarter. Total social financing rebounded to 2.54 trillion yuan in March from 1.07 trillion yuan in February, much stronger than expected. And trust loans surged to 430.6 billion yuan in March, the highest level recorded. But Chang Jian, China economist with Barclays Capital, predicted the expansions in total social financing and new loans in the first quarter were unlikely to be sustained. "We expect monthly numbers to come down, after the regulators strengthened quota controls. "The strong first-quarter results reflected pent-up demand from the end of 2012 and a pickup in demand after the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday," said Chang. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co, said he expected new loans in April would be somewhere between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan, based on historical figures. "Judging from the credit growth pace in first three months, the overall credit will be stable this year," added Lu. In the first three weeks of April, the "Big Four" State-owned commercial banks extended loans worth 130 billion yuan, a slower pace than previous months, according to a report from China International Capital Corporation Ltd. It said tougher measures to curb the real estate market were likely to drag down growth in property lending, and forecast new loans for April to stand at 800 billion yuan. Some analysts said that the rise in non-performing loans in the first quarter has made banks more likely to extend loans rather than offer new loans in April. Lian said new loans may rebound in May, and predicted they could total between 9 and 9.5 trillion yuan this year. According to Chang, based on this year's lending pace mirroring that of 2012, with a quarterly distribution ratio of 3:3:2:2, the first quarter out-turn implies full-year new loans at 9.2 trillion yuan, while the 6.16 trillion yuan in total social financing from January and March would point to a total of 20 trillion yuan for the full year. Shen Jianguang, an economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd, said inflation risks 3 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD seemed less worrying than slower economic growth, and that the monetary authorities do not need to tighten their stance. (Chinadaily May 7th, 2013) (Edited by Wei Xiaoning) 2. Daily Statistics of ChinaBond Indices ChinaBond Composite Index tracking general performance of bond market went up today. The net price index excluding interest revenue rose by 0.0391%; and the total return index including interest reinvested revenue rose by 0.0496%. In addition, the average yield to maturity was 4.2176%. The average market capitalization yield was 3.9517%. And the market value weighted duration was 4.1739. Table 1: Overall Changes of Total Return Indices Index Indicator Term Total ChinaBond Exchange Total Return Treasury Bond Index Value Index Total ChinaBond 5-Year Treasury Total Return Bond Index Value Index Total ChinaBond 7-year Treasury Total Return Bond Index Value Index 4 2013-5-7 2013-5-6 Change 144.9829 37 144.6178 59 0.25244 3 128.3778 39 128.2014 93 0.13755 3 137.4501 26 137.2993 9 0.10978 6 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond Fixed Treasury Bond Index Rate ChinaBond Treasury Bond Aggregate Index ChinaBond Interbank Treasury Bond Index Inter-Bank Fix-rate Corporate Bond Index ChinaBond Corporate Bond Index ChinaBond Fixed Rate Index ChinaBond Term Index Short-Middle ChinaBond New High Grade Bond Index ChinaBond Aggregate Index ChinaBond Company Credit Bond Index Chinabond High Grade Bond Index ChinaBond Composite Index ChinaBond Aggregate Index ChinaBond Index Interbank Credit Bond China Medium Term Notes Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total 5 Total Value 146.7583 48 146.6170 82 0.09635 Total Value 146.4096 07 146.2686 77 0.09635 Total Value 147.7444 88 147.6079 52 0.09249 9 Total Value 128.4927 62 128.4041 87 0.06898 2 Total Value 129.3084 129.2194 04 0.06887 2 Total Value 147.0490 2 146.9490 65 0.06802 Total Value 144.3732 19 144.2833 51 0.06228 6 Total Value 127.7033 06 127.6252 58 0.06115 4 Total Value 145.7386 99 145.6508 35 0.06032 5 Total Value 130.7994 93 130.7334 92 0.05048 5 Total Value 132.4794 25 132.4130 78 0.05010 6 Total Value 149.9083 94 149.8341 18 0.04957 2 Total Value 147.9092 42 147.8397 53 0.04700 3 Total Value 130.3655 23 130.3045 24 0.04681 2 Total 129.5931 129.5357 0.04431 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Index ChinaBond New Notes Index Medium ChinaBond Long Term Index ChinaBond New Composite Index ChinaBond Index CBIC Bond ChinaBond CDB bond index ChinaBond commercial bank bond index ChinaBond Fixed Finance Bond Index Rate ChinaBond 5-Year Finance Bond Index ChinaBond Finance Aggregate Index Bond ChinaBond Commercial Paper (AA) Index ChinaBond paper Index commercial ChinaBond Floating Finance Bond Index Rate ChinaBond Index Rate Floating ChinaBond money market fund investable bond index Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return 6 Value 47 45 4 Total Value 129.5440 54 129.4867 4 0.04426 2 Total Value 144.5170 86 144.4532 97 0.04415 9 Total Value 146.0227 32 145.9593 33 0.04343 6 Total Value 118.4210 73 118.3772 95 0.03698 2 Total Value 149.1360 5 149.0911 46 0.03011 9 Total Value 129.5377 15 129.4992 11 0.02973 3 Total Value 143.0624 74 143.0221 06 0.02822 5 Total Value 131.1089 09 131.0745 85 0.02618 6 Total Value 146.1912 61 146.1556 88 0.02433 9 Total Value 132.5926 16 132.5632 15 0.02217 8 Total Value 132.6188 5 132.5937 28 0.01894 6 Total Value 140.8111 42 140.7913 74 0.01404 1 Total Value 141.5772 141.5574 31 0.01396 5 Total Value 124.8449 53 124.8277 51 0.01378 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Index Total ChinaBond Commercial Return Paper 50 index Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank Return Paper 50 Index Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank Return Paper index Index Total Value 130.3481 57 130.3309 6 0.01319 4 Total Value 126.8235 05 126.8101 33 0.01054 5 Total Value 135.7307 29 135.7164 17 0.01054 5 2013-5-7 2013-5-6 Change 117.8606 76 117.5724 3 0.24516 5 107.9591 7 107.8185 83 0.13039 2 111.8809 44 111.7662 87 0.10258 7 116.1770 57 116.0755 13 0.08748 1 116.5380 9 116.4362 3 0.08748 1 117.1425 96 117.0447 68 0.08358 1 116.4386 48 116.3705 31 0.05853 4 93.36084 2 93.30977 8 0.05472 5 93.66132 6 93.61025 4 0.05455 9 115.1521 115.0913 0.05286 Table 2: Overall Changes of Net Price Indices Indicat Index Term or Net ChinaBond Exchange Total Price Treasury Bond Index Value Index Net ChinaBond 5-Year Treasury Total Price Bond Index Value Index Net ChinaBond 7-year Treasury Total Price Bond Index Value Index Net ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Price Aggregate Index Value Index Net ChinaBond Fixed Rate Total Price Treasury Bond Index Value Index Net ChinaBond Interbank Treasury Total Price Bond Index Value Index Net Total ChinaBond Fixed Rate Index Price Value Index Net Inter-Bank Fix-rate Corporate Total Price Bond Index Value Index Net ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Price Index Value Index ChinaBond Short-Middle Net Total 7 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Term Index ChinaBond Aggregate Index ChinaBond New High Grade Bond Index ChinaBond Composite Index ChinaBond Company Credit Bond Index Chinabond High Grade Bond Index ChinaBond Aggregate Index Interbank ChinaBond Credit Bond Index ChinaBond Long Term Index ChinaBond New Composite Index ChinaBond Notes Index New Medium China Medium Term Notes Index ChinaBond CBIC Bond Index ChinaBond CDB bond index ChinaBond Fixed Finance Bond Index Rate Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price 8 Value 69 21 9 Total Value 115.3883 3 115.3298 35 0.05071 9 Total Value 95.08580 6 95.04012 9 0.04806 1 Total Value 101.6016 87 101.5620 25 0.03905 2 Total Value 98.56950 1 98.53244 0.03761 3 Total Value 97.09261 8 97.05631 5 0.03740 4 Total Value 116.6540 98 116.6114 51 0.03657 3 Total Value 97.99901 4 97.96567 5 0.03403 2 Total Value 110.6494 2 110.6128 44 0.03306 7 Total Value 99.53910 7 99.50645 3 0.03281 5 Total Value 104.9055 36 104.8721 62 0.03182 3 Total Value 104.9042 19 104.8708 46 0.03182 3 Total Value 101.7927 16 101.7684 81 0.02381 4 Total Value 100.7253 82 100.7056 71 0.01957 3 Total Value 112.2272 9 112.2075 18 0.01762 1 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond commercial bank bond index ChinaBond 5-Year Bond Index ChinaBond Finance Aggregate Index Finance Bond ChinaBond Commercial Paper (AA) Index ChinaBond commercial paper Index ChinaBond money market fund investable bond index ChinaBond Floating Finance Bond Index Rate ChinaBond Index Rate Floating ChinaBond Central Paper 50 Index Bank ChinaBond Paper index Bank Central ChinaBond Commercial Paper 50 index Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Total Value 98.44488 6 98.42792 0.01723 6 Total Value 107.0607 92 107.0439 64 0.01572 1 Total Value 114.9956 61 114.9797 64 0.01382 7 Total Value 98.02070 6 98.01125 2 0.00964 5 Total Value 98.83977 6 98.83225 5 0.00761 Total Value 98.52161 5 98.51755 7 0.00411 9 Total Value 111.5341 38 111.5298 75 0.00382 3 Total Value 112.2309 24 112.2267 09 0.00375 6 Total Value 100.0774 13 100.0743 66 0.00304 5 Total Value 101.1650 25 101.1619 45 0.00304 5 Total Value 99.07643 6 99.07398 0.00248 2013-5-6 Change 147.3766 0.54496 4 150.2675 67 0.31786 2 Table 3: Top 10 Rising Indices (By Term Segments) Index Indicator Term 2013-5-7 Total ChinaBond Exchange 148.1797 Return 3-5y Treasury Bond Index 5 Index ChinaBond Exchange Total >=10 150.7452 Treasury Bond Index Return y 1 9 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Fixed Treasury Bond Index Rate ChinaBond Treasury Bond Aggregate Index ChinaBond Interbank Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond 7-year Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond money market fund investable bond index ChinaBond 5-Year Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Fixed Rate Index Index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Treasury Bond Aggregate Index ChinaBond Fixed Rate Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Interbank Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond 7-year Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond money market fund investable bond index Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Total Return Index Indicator Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index 10 Total Value 144.9829 37 144.6178 59 0.25244 3 3-5y 143.2210 95 142.8911 7 0.23089 3 3-5y 144.9283 69 144.5945 11 0.23089 3 3-5y 143.5788 48 143.2570 3 0.22464 4 3-5y 139.2558 51 138.9580 75 0.21429 2 5-7y 134.8647 26 134.6282 55 0.17564 7 Total Value 128.3778 39 128.2014 93 0.13755 3 3-5y 145.6085 71 145.4151 76 0.13299 5 2013-5-7 126.8960 38 118.1766 86 117.8606 76 118.5124 48 117.1593 01 117.3802 1 113.5241 61 109.8537 81 2013-5-6 126.2130 23 117.8094 25 117.5724 3 118.2482 39 116.8981 09 117.1259 45 113.2876 34 109.6719 01 Change 0.54116 1 0.31174 2 0.24516 5 0.22343 6 0.22343 6 0.21708 7 0.20878 5 Term 3-5y >=10 y Total Value 3-5y 3-5y 3-5y 3-5y 5-7y 0.16584 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond 5-Year Treasury Net Price Total Bond Index Index Value Net Price ChinaBond Fixed Rate Index 3-5y Index 107.9591 7 117.1641 53 Table 4: Top 10 Declining Indices (By Term Segments) Index Indicator Term 2013-5-7 Total ChinaBond commercial 116.2532 Return >=10y bank bond index 98 Index Total ChinaBond Credit Bond 121.1809 Return >=10y Index 3 Index Total ChinaBond CBIC Bond 116.0490 Return 7-10y Index 98 Index Total ChinaBond commercial Return 7-10y 131.433 bank bond index Index Total ChinaBond 7-year 136.0657 Return <1y Treasury Bond Index 94 Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank 132.1250 Return <1y Paper index 02 Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank 124.3174 Return <1y Paper 50 Index 02 Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank Total 126.8235 Return Paper 50 Index Value 05 Index Total ChinaBond Central Bank Total 135.7307 Return Paper index Value 29 Index Total ChinaBond Floating Rate 132.4221 Return 1-3y Index 27 Index Index Indicator Term 2013-5-7 ChinaBond commercial Net Price 84.31523 >=10y bank bond index Index 9 ChinaBond Credit Bond Net Price 88.79368 >=10y Index Index 9 11 107.8185 83 117.0185 93 0.13039 2 0.12439 2013-5-6 Change 116.2685 07 -0.01308 1 121.1901 39 -0.00759 9 116.0458 32 0.00281 5 131.4257 94 0.00548 4 136.0564 82 0.00684 4 132.1146 7 0.00782 124.3076 81 0.00782 126.8101 33 0.01054 5 135.7164 17 0.01054 5 132.4077 74 0.01084 2013-5-6 84.33904 7 88.81356 5 Change -0.02822 9 -0.02237 9 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond CBIC Bond Index ChinaBond commercial bank bond index ChinaBond 7-year Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Central Bank Paper 50 Index ChinaBond Central Bank Paper index ChinaBond Floating Rate Index ChinaBond Floating Rate Finance Bond Index ChinaBond CDB bond index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index 7-10y 7-10y <1y <1y <1y 1-3y 1-3y <1y 103.1868 27 98.67857 5 114.3697 4 99.10286 7 99.53138 3 104.8776 66 105.5450 9 97.44392 103.2000 65 98.68865 2 114.3706 82 99.10220 1 99.53071 5 104.8769 2 105.5440 33 97.44188 9 -0.01282 7 -0.01021 1 -0.00082 3 0.00067 2 0.00067 2 0.00071 1 0.00100 1 0.00208 4 Table 5: Top 10 Rising Total Return & Net Price Indices (By Term Segments) Index Indicator Term 2013-5-7 2013-5-6 Change Total ChinaBond Exchange Total 144.9829 144.6178 0.25244 Return Treasury Bond Index Value 37 59 3 Index Total ChinaBond Corporate Bond 127.3633 127.3311 0.02530 Return <1y Index 59 4 3 Index Total Inter-Bank Fix-rate Corporate 134.1195 134.0309 Return 1-3y 0.06611 Bond Index 8 71 Index Total ChinaBond Exchange 148.1797 0.54496 Return 3-5y 147.3766 Treasury Bond Index 5 4 Index Total ChinaBond money market 134.8647 134.6282 0.17564 Return 5-7y fund investable bond index 26 55 7 Index Total ChinaBond Exchange 171.1926 170.9701 0.13013 Return 7-10y Treasury Bond Index 19 25 6 Index Total ChinaBond Exchange >=10 150.7452 150.2675 0.31786 Return Treasury Bond Index y 1 67 2 Index ChinaBond Exchange Net Price Total 117.8606 117.5724 0.24516 Treasury Bond Index Index Value 76 3 5 12 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD ChinaBond Corporate Bond Index Inter-Bank Fix-rate Corporate Bond Index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond money market fund investable bond index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index ChinaBond Exchange Treasury Bond Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index Net Price Index 96.56218 1 99.21361 1-3y 7 126.8960 3-5y 38 109.8537 5-7y 81 146.9289 7-10y 18 >=10 118.1766 y 86 <1y 96.55016 6 99.16150 9 126.2130 23 109.6719 01 146.7517 41 117.8094 25 0.01244 5 0.05254 9 0.54116 1 0.16584 0.12073 2 0.31174 2 (Edited by Zhuang Yan) Contacts: Director of Bond Information Department: Liu Fan (010-88170601,[email protected]) Deputy Director of Bond Information Department: Lu Zunhua (010-88170602,[email protected]) Bond Indices: Niu Yurui (010-88170610,[email protected]) Liao Qianyun (010-88170611,[email protected]) Zhuang Yan (010-88170627,[email protected]) Zhao Chunshu (010-88170618,[email protected]) Liu Haifan(010-88170625,[email protected]) Niu Dai (010-88170620,[email protected]) Wang Bingkun (010-88170628,[email protected]) Valuation: Zhao Ling (010-88170613,[email protected]) Wang Chaoqun (010-88170615,[email protected]) Chen Ning (010-88170616,[email protected]) Feng Haibin (010-88170617,[email protected]) Huang Shan (010-88170622,[email protected]) 13 CHINA CENTRAL DEPOSITORY & CLEARING CO.,LTD Li Yan (010-88170632,[email protected]) Wei Xiaoning (010-88170624,[email protected]) Ma Tunan (010-88170630,[email protected]) Liu Xiaolong(010-88170629,[email protected]) Wang Sihan (010-88170623,[email protected]) Quality Control: Jin Lin (010-88170619,[email protected]) Xiang Ran (010-88170626,[email protected]) Statistics: Li Jing (010-88170607, [email protected]) Jiao Yulong (010-88170609,[email protected]) Duan Xiao (010-88170608,[email protected]) Wang Ying (010-88170621,[email protected]) Sales: Sun Mingjie (010-88170612,[email protected]) Jin Lin (010-88170619,[email protected]) Xiang Ran(010-88170626,[email protected]) Website: Liu Yan(010-88170603,[email protected]) Wang Wei (010-88170605,[email protected]) Li Xiaoping(010-88170606,[email protected]) Fax: 010-66061883 14
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