Inter-American Development Bank
Seminário Recente Regimes de Origem
Brasilia
26-28 September 2007
The Global Garment Industry
&
The Parallax Gap
Brasilia
27 September 2007
David Birnbaum
Unit Market Share FTAs
Yarn Forward
U.S. Garment Imports
Unit Market Share (SME)
25%
20%
15%
Mexico
CAFTA
10%
5%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Unit Market Share FTAs
Yarn Forward
U.S. Garment Imports: CAFTA Majors
7%
Unit Market Share
6%
5%
Honduras
4%
El Salvador
3%
Guatemala
Dom. Rep.
2%
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Unit Market Share FTAs
Third Party Fabric
U.S. Garment Imports: CAFTA Majors
7%
Unit Market Share
6%
5%
Honduras
4%
El Salvador
3%
Guatemala
Dom. Rep.
2%
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Unit Market Share: The Winners I
Greater China
U.S. Garment Imports
Unit Market Share (SME)
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
G.China
15%
10%
5%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Unit Market Share: The Winners II
U.S. Garment Imports
Unit Market Share (SME
7%
6%
5%
India
4%
Bangladsh
Cambodia
3%
Indonesia
2%
Vietnam
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Unit & Value Market Share
Winners & Losers
All Garment Products
Market Share in Units - Jan-July 07
2006
2007 % +/G.China
28.3% 34.6%
22.1%
CAFTA
17.1% 16.0%
-6.5%
Mexico
7.3%
5.6% -22.9%
Vietnam
4.4%
5.2%
18.7%
India
4.4%
4.3%
-1.5%
Bangladesh
5.8%
5.9%
1.6%
Indonesia
4.6%
4.8%
4.3%
SSA
1.5%
1.5%
-1.3%
Cambodia
3.7%
3.6%
-2.6%
Jordan
1.4%
1.1% -22.6%
Total
78.5% 82.6%
5%
All Garment Products
Market Share by Value - Jan-July 07
2006
2007 % +/G.China
28.0% 32.8%
17.3%
CAFTA
12.9% 11.7%
-9.0%
Mexico
8.1%
6.5% -20.1%
Vietnam
4.7%
5.6%
18.4%
India
5.3%
4.9%
-6.6%
Bangladesh
4.1%
4.3%
5.3%
Indonesia
5.2%
5.7%
9.1%
SSA
1.8%
1.8%
-2.2%
Cambodia
2.9%
3.3%
10.8%
Jordan
1.8%
1.5% -15.2%
74.8% 78.0%
4%
Part II
Planning a Comprehensive
Integrated Strategy
It Is Not About Price: I
U.S. Garment Imports
30%
FOB PCT Premium/Discount
20%
10%
0%
-10%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Year
2005
2006
07-07
Honduras
El Salvador
Guatemala
Dom. Rep
It Is Not About Price: II
U.S. Garment Imports: FOB Price
60%
PCT Premium/Discount
40%
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-20%
-40%
-60%
Year
2005
2006
07-07
G. China
CAFTA
Bangladesh
Camobdia
It Is Not About Price: III
U.S. Garment Imports: FOB Prices
30%
PCT Premium/Discount
25%
20%
15%
India
Mexico
Indonesia
Vietnam
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-10%
Year
2005
2006
07-07
T-Shirt Analysis: Best Product I
Highest Duty Rate
U.S. T-Shirt Imports
35%
32.00%
30%
25%
20%
16.50%
Duty
15%
10%
5%
0%
Cotton T Shirts
Synthetic T Shirts
PCT Duty Rate
T-Shirt Analysis: Best Product II
Highest FOB Price
U.S. T-Shirt Imports
$5.00
$4.49
Average FOB Price
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
FOB
$3.22
$2.97
$2.89
$2.69
$2.50
$2.00
AVER
M Cot
W Cot
Product
M Syn
W Syn
T-Shirt Analysis: Latin America
Concentration of Product I
T-Shirt Exports to U.S.
Percent Total by Product
100%
80%
W Syn
M Syn
W Cot
M Cot
60%
40%
20%
0%
CAFTA MX
HN
ES
NI
Country
GU
DR
CR
T-Shirt Analysis: Latin America
Concentration of Product II
CAFTA
M Cot
W Cot
M Syn
W Syn
48.7%
39.9%
9.5%
1.9%
MX
27.0%
51.9%
12.4%
8.6%
HN
60.2%
26.9%
11.9%
1.0%
ES
NI
52.8%
32.2%
13.8%
1.1%
GU
49.1%
45.1%
4.7%
1.2%
20.0%
73.4%
3.2%
3.4%
DR
46.1%
35.8%
8.8%
9.3%
CR
19.4%
39.1%
22.4%
19.1%
T-Shirt Analysis: Latin America
Concentration of Product III
U.S. T-Shirt Imports
40%
38%
Unit Market Share
35%
30%
25%
24%
M Cot
M Syn
W Cot
W Syn
20%
20%
15%
10%
9%
7.4%
7%
6%
5%
1%
2.6%
3.9%
1%
0%
0%
CAFTA
9%
8%
MX
4%
2.2%
0%
Hn
Es
Country
5%
4%
0.5% 0%
Ni
3%
0.5% 0%
Gu