Date of Submission to Coordination Unit: 27/04/2016 A. GENERAL INFORMATION 1. Activity Name Supporting the Design and Implementation of Economic and Social Reforms for Inclusive Growth in Tunisia through Capacity Building in Statistics, Monitoring and Evaluation 2. Requestor Information Name: Mrs. Kalthoum Hamzaoui Title: Director General of multilateral Cooperation Organization and Address: Ministry of Development, Investment and International Cooperation, 98 Avenue Mohamed V (Place Pasteur), Tunis-Belvédère, Tunisia Telephone: (+216) 71 892 653 Email: [email protected] 3. Recipient Entity Name: Mr. Rached Ben Romdhane Title: Director of Cabinet Organization and Address: Ministry of Development, Investment and International Cooperation, 98 Avenue Mohamed V (Place Pasteur), Tunis-Belvédère, Tunisia Telephone: (+216) 71 794 564 Email: [email protected] 4. ISA SC Representative Name: Mr. Jacob Kolster Title: Director, North Africa regional department Organization and Address: African Development Bank, rue du dollar, Berges du Lac 2, Tunis, Tunisia Telephone: (+216) 71 10 20 65 Email: [email protected] Name: Mr. Andreas Schaal Title: Head of the Sherpa Office and Global Governance Unit Organization and Address: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2 rue André Pascal, Paris, France Telephone: (+33) 01 45 24 18 55 Email: [email protected] 1 5. Type of Execution (check the applicable box) Type Endorsements Country-Execution Attach written endorsement from designated ISA √ Joint Country/ISAAttach written endorsement Execution from designated ISA Justification The proposed project aims to support more effective implementation of the Government of Tunisia (GoT)’s Strategic Development Plan 2016-2020 and structural reforms by strengthening its capacity in statistics, impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation. The project comprises four components: (1) Support to the design and implementation of macro-economic and structural policies and reforms; (2) Support to inclusive regional development through improved regional statistics and monitoring and evaluation capacity; (3) support to Tunisia’s open data agenda through the design and installation of a new statistical dissemination infrastructure; and (4) Project management and audit. The duration of the project is 3 years. The nature of the project requires some activities to be executed by the Government of Tunisia (GoT), in close collaboration with the participating ISAs, (OECD and AfDB) and other activities to be directly and exclusively executed by the OECD. The part executed by the GoT will aim to strengthen its capacity in designing, monitoring and evaluating structural macroeconomic and regional development reforms and policies. The OECD executed activities will complement these efforts by putting at the disposal of the GoT the OECD’s expertise, established standards and instruments and peer reviews in the areas of macroeconomic policymaking, structural reforms, regional development and regional statistics. In addition, the OECD has been engaged with the Government of Tunisia for over a decade to support reforms for socio- 2 economic development through policy analysis and advice, including through the March 2015 report Tunisia: A Reform Agenda to Support Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth (Better Policies Series) or four ongoing MENA Transition Fund projects on investment, PPPs, youth employment and tax reform implemented with other partners. Similarly, AfDB has been a privileged partner of Tunisia since 1964 and is of the bank’s 3 top beneficiaries in terms of historical cumulative approvals. Therefore, Tunisia has experience in directly dealing with AfDB and accessing OECD research and tools. AfDB will be the only ISA responsible for the oversight and management of the funds used for the country-executed portion. The project will also leverage on the work performed by other development partners providing support in the above areas (e.g. the EU, World Bank and AfDB). ISA-Execution for Country ISA-Execution for Parliaments Attach written endorsement from designated ISA Attach written endorsements from designated Ministry and ISA (Provide justification for ISA-Execution) 6. Geographic Focus √ Individual country (name of country): Republic of Tunisia Regional or multiple countries (list countries): N/A 7. Amount Requested (USD) Amount Requested for direct Project Activities: (of which Amount Requested for direct ISA-Executed Project Activities): Amount Requested for ISA Indirect Costs:1 1 USD 3,678,017 including: OECD-executed project activities: USD 1,848,017 Government of Tunisia executed activities: USD 1,830,000 AfDB: USD 100,000 OECD: USD 124,253 ISA indirect costs are for grant preparation, administration, management (implementation support/supervision) including staff time, travel, consultant costs, etc. 3 Total Amount Requested: USD 3,902,270 8. Expected Project Start, Closing and Final Disbursement Dates Start 1 September Closing 31 August 2019 End Date: 2016 Date: Disbursement Date: 9. Pillar(s) to which Activity Responds Pillar Primary Secondary (One (All that only) apply) Investing in Sustainable √ Growth. This could include such topics as innovation and technology policy, enhancing the business environment (including for small and mediumsized enterprises as well as for local and foreign investment promotion), competition policy, private sector development strategies, access to finance, addressing urban congestion and energy intensity. Inclusive Development and Job Creation. This could include support of √ 30 November 2019 Pillar Primary Secondary (One (All that only) apply) Enhancing Economic √ Governance. This could include areas such as transparency, anticorruption and accountability policies, asset recovery, public financial management and oversight, public sector audit and evaluation, integrity, procurement reform, regulatory quality and administrative simplification, investor and consumer protection, access to economic data and information, management of environmental and social impacts, capacity building for local government and decentralization, support for the Open Government Partnership, creation of new and innovative government agencies related to new transitional reforms, reform of public service delivery in the social and infrastructure sectors, and sound banking systems. Competitiveness and Integration. This could include such topics as 4 √ policies for integrating lagging regions, skills and labor market policies, increasing youth employability, enhancing female labor force participation, integrating people with disabilities, vocational training, pension reform, improving job conditions and regulations, financial inclusion, promoting equitable fiscal policies and social safety net reform. logistics, behind-theborder regulatory convergence, trade strategy and negotiations, planning and facilitation of cross-border infrastructure, and promoting and facilitating infrastructure projects, particularly in the areas of urban infrastructure, transport, trade facilitation and private sector development. 5 B. STRATEGIC CONTEXT 10. Country and Sector Issues Tunisia’s successful political transition has not produced yet the expected benefits in terms of economic recovery and transformation. Five years after the 2011 revolution, Tunisia continues to report weak growth, well below its historical performance (i.e. 5% during the decade leading to the 2011 revolution). Growth is estimated at 0.8% for 2015, reflecting a decrease or stagnation of all economic sectors, except non-commercial services, driven by wage increases in the public service, and agriculture whose performance was particularly boosted by an exceptional production of olive oil (1.77 million tons in 2015 against 350,000 tons in 2014). In 2016, GDP growth is projected at 2% and will continue to be driven mainly by domestic consumption. The authorities expect an acceleration of growth between 2016 and 2020, with an average of 4% over the period, driven by an improved security and social context, and an acceleration of the implementation of structural reforms, which should be fostered by the adoption of the 5-year plan. Nevertheless, Tunisia’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain fragile, especially on the external and debt fronts. In addition, while budget deficit shows a downward trend since 2014, the budget composition (i.e. strong emphasis on current expenses) and slow pace of public investment remain problematic. Similarly, Tunisia continues to face significant regional disparities and high unemployment, which represent major weaknesses that contributed to the outbreak of the 2011 revolution. The gap has actually widened over the years between large coastal cities and interior regions. The last census, in 2014, shows that in terms of equipment, road infrastructure, health and leisure services, the governorates of Kasserine, Sidi Bouzid, Gafsa, Jendouba, Kairouan, Kebili are far behind the national average, but also far from the average reported by coastal governorates. For instance, national statistics show that the knowledge level is 30 times higher in Tunis than in an interior region such as Kasserine while quality of health services is six times higher in Tunis compared to Sidi Bouzid. These disparities have fueled several social uprisings recently and created further security challenges for the GoT. The Unemployment rate remains also high at 15.4% at the end of 2015. Unemployment particularly affects young graduates (31.2%) and women (22.6%). These high rates reflect the slow pace of reforms undertaken by the authorities so far, the low number of jobs created by the private sector because of the non-conducive business environment (notably in interior regions); and the mismatch between the training offered by the educational system and the needs of the labor market. In order to address these weaknesses and deliver accelerated, inclusive and sustainable growth, the newly democratically elected government that took office in February 2015 initiated reform efforts and is putting the final touches to a 5-year Strategic Development Plan (SDP) that would guide the country’s investment and reform efforts. The SDP should serve as a base to produce regional development plans as well. However, the implementation of this ambitious plan along with the necessary structural reforms require well developed design, impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms and tools as well as availability of good statistical indicators to measure outcomes in terms of social and economic performance, with a particular focus on disadvantaged regions and groups. The availability of such mechanisms, tools and indicators is key to inform public decision making and help the GoT take corrective actions if need be. These instruments will also be useful to track and evaluate Tunisia’s progress in the implementation of the Deauville Partnership’s Compact for Economic Governance.2 2 Adopted by all Deauville Partners at a Senior Officials’ Meeting in May 2015, the Compact for Economic Governance provides a framework for key policy objectives to promote good governance and a sound business climate, to be undertaken by Arab Countries in Transition and supported by the G7, Deauville Partner countries, the OECD and the international financial institutions, as well as relevant coordination platforms. 6 Against, this background, the objective of the present project is to assist the government in building capacity in these key areas, thereby contributing to the successful execution of the 5-year plan, associated structural reforms and policies, and beyond. 11. Alignment with Transition Fund Objective The objective of the Transition Fund is to strengthen governance and public institutions, and foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth by advancing country-led policy and institutional reforms. The project is fully aligned with the Fund’s objectives because it aims to foster economic and social transition in Tunisia through support to the implementation of home-grown and country-owned reforms. Specifically, the project is aligned with the following thematic areas of the Fund: (i) investing in inclusive development and job creation by fostering reforms that enhances the inclusion of regions and disadvantaged groups; and (ii) enhancing economic governance by supporting greater transparency and capacity in reporting and assessing government policies and reforms. In addition, the project will leverage on the work supported by the European Union (EU) on regional statistics, which is in line with the Fund’s focus on “funding for technical cooperation proposals that leverage other supporting relationships that are external to the recipient entity and supporting ISAs”. 12. Alignment with Country’s National Strategy The 2011 revolution revealed the limits of the economic development model used by Tunisia over the past decades and its inability to deliver equitable distribution of wealth and economic opportunities across regions and social groups. This prompted the authorities to rethink the country’s development policies in order to create inclusive and sustainable growth. The new government’s priorities are articulated in the 2016-2020 strategic orientation note published in August 2015. The Government of Tunisia (GoT) is also finalizing a 5-year Strategic Development Plan (SDP) 2016-2020 to implement the vision and priorities presented in the strategic note. This plan is expected to be ready by summer 2016 and presented to the international community during an international conference in fall 2016. The Orientation Note published by the GoT identifies 5 priority axes for government action and reform efforts: (i) Good governance and reforms; (ii) Enhanced economic sophistication; (iii) Human development and social inclusion; (iv) Comprehensive and sustained regional development; and (v) Sustainable development. The project will be serving all the 5 priority axes listed above but particularly, axes (i) and (iv). C. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 13. Project Objective The objective of this project is to enhance efficiency and effectiveness in the implementation of the GoT’s Strategic Development Plan 2016-2020 (SDP) and future structural reforms and policies by strengthening its capacity in statistics, impact assessment, monitoring and evaluation. Notably, the project presents a perfect opportunity to support Tunisia’s efforts to achieve its economic transition and structural transformation. In particular, the objectives and activities planned under this project makes it 7 a suitable candidate for financing by the MENA Transition Fund given the Fund’s objective of assisting countries in transition to develop inclusive growth and foster home-grown reforms. In particular, the project will support the delivery of sustainable and inclusive growth by serving three key areas: (1) support to the design and implementation of macroeconomic and structural policies; (2) support to inclusive regional development through improved regional statistics and monitoring and evaluation; and (3) support to Tunisia’s open data agenda through the design and installation of a new statistical dissemination infrastructure. 14. Project Components The project will be executed over a period of 36 months, and will comprise four components: (1) Support to the design and implementation of macro-economic and structural policies and reforms; (2) Support to inclusive regional development through improved regional statistics and M&E capacity; (3) Support to Tunisia’s open data agenda through a new statistical dissemination infrastructure; and (4) Project management and audit. The main aim is to support the GoT’s efforts to achieve accelerated and inclusive growth through more efficient planning, design, execution, and monitoring and evaluation capacity of projects and reforms. Component 1: Support for the implementation of macro-economic and structural policies and reforms The GoT faces many challenges, but also a unique opportunity to implement ambitious reforms, from which the benefits could be immense. The Ministry of Development, Investment and International Cooperation (MDICI) is at the forefront of these efforts and has initiated numerous activities to this end, notably by taking the leadership in preparing the SDP. Planning, designing, implementing and monitoring reforms and projects under the 5-year SDP and beyond will require clear and well-defined outcome and policy indicators, as well as capacity to assess the impact of these reforms and projects. Component 1 addresses these needs through two sub-components. Sub-component 1.A: Benchmarking Tunisia’s economic performance and policies (activities executed by the OECD) Benchmarking Tunisia’s economic performance and policies against OECD countries and key emerging economies will serve to better design policies and structural reforms, and to monitor progress in policy implementation and outcomes. An in-depth policy analysis based on well-tested OECD methodologies will allow Tunisia to learn from the experience of other countries, to build expertise at the government level and to enrich the policy dialogue with key stakeholders. Activity 1.A.1: Informing economic policy design through the development of internationally comparable indicators and economic projections Good comparative data and information are key to the development of sound economic and policy analysis, the formulation of reforms, and assessment of progress in outcomes and in reform implementation. To assist the GoT in building capacity in this respect, the OECD will: Build various structural policy indicators in the context of the OECD Going for Growth model and support Tunisia’s participation in this exercise alongside OECD and emerging economies. This exercise will cover a wide range of policy areas including competition and product market regulation (PMR) and employment policy legislation, taxation, innovation, education, financial markets, sustainable development, social safety nets, health care and public spending. The ultimate output of this activity would be Tunisia’s participation in the 2017 and 2018 OECD Going for Growth assessment. This would allow Tunisia to better assess and benchmark 8 its economic performance and to identify key structural policy reforms. The OECD will also aim to build capacity within the GoT to update and maintain such indicators in the future by sharing and providing training on the methodology underlying the relevant indications. Draw economic projections for Tunisia twice a year, in the context of the OECD Economic Outlook and its longer-term scenario. This exercise will integrate Tunisia into a forecasting framework along with OECD and key emerging economies. In particular, Economic Outlook projections will reflect the situation in OECD partner through trade and financial linkages, as well as overall global prospects. Before their publication, the projections are discussed twice a year in Paris among representatives of OECD and emerging markets. The project will support Tunisia’s participation in the OECD Economic Outlook starting in 2016. Activity 1.A.2: Improving design and impact assessment of structural economic reforms The augmented set of indicators will allow benchmarking Tunisia with OECD countries and emerging economies to better assess scope for progress, inform on relevant policy experience, and help prioritize reforms in the context of the SDP. To this end, the OECD will rely on the accumulated knowledge and experience sharing of the OECD Economic Policy Committee and other OECD bodies to: Benchmark Tunisia’s policies with OECD countries and key emerging economies to help the GoT assess the impact of reforms and to prioritise them. Based on a broad set of structural indicators and by benchmarking Tunisia’s economic policies against those of OECD countries and key emerging economies, the OECD will help the GoT’s identify priorities for policy reforms. It will also assess the impact of various structural policy reforms on growth and other dimensions of wellbeing in particular inequality and the environment. Provide an in-depth analysis of areas in which the country needs and wants to undertake reforms to develop specific, robust and evidence-based policy recommendations. The ultimate output of this activity would be an economic report of Tunisia. The report will provide an in-depth analytical assessment with an overview macroeconomic chapter and generally two structural policy chapters on topics important for growth and well-being to be chosen by the OECD in consultation with the GoT. The report will focus on policies having a potential to improve the economy’s long-run performance. The report also places a special emphasis on links between structural policies in these areas and macroeconomic performance. Activity 1.A.3: Building local capacity and fostering policy dialogue An integral part of the support to Tunisia is to build local capacity to ensure that indicators and the associated analysis can be maintained and upgraded, are well understood by key players and are fully integrated in the policy reform process. To this end, the OECD will: Share its experience in assessing economic developments, maintaining indicators and measuring the impact of structural reforms. Building and maintaining indicators will be done in close cooperation with the Tunisian authorities and other key stakeholders to assess legislation and outcomes. The methodologies followed to develop the different indicators will be shared with the government. Secondment programmes with Tunisia’s government will also be used to expose the Tunisian authorities to OECD benchmarking exercises and further encourage knowledge transfer. In addition, the OECD will organise a workshop in Tunis on the impact of structural reforms based on the empirical work carried out by the Secretariat and the experience of countries shared in its Committees. Promote the sharing of views and knowledge between Tunisia’s government, OECD countries and other emerging economies. The exchange of policy experience and peer learning are key objectives of the OECD. Tunisia is already a member of the OECD Development Centre. In 9 addition, under the project, Tunisia is encouraged to apply to participate in additional OECD committees. Tunisia’s participation in the Committees as invitee is free, and the budget planned for the project includes travel for Tunisian participants in Paris. Foster policy dialogue with key stakeholders. The preparation and publication of the in-depth policy analysis (Economic Report) will offer a unique opportunity to enrich the policy dialogue both within Tunisia and with its main partners. To prepare the in-depth policy analysis, the OECD will meet the government, trade unions, private sector representatives, and other representatives from the civil society to gather views and information. The OECD will present its preliminary conclusions to high-level government representatives and adjust them to incorporate comments and views. The draft will be discussed in an OECD workshop, with Tunisia and OECD countries’ representatives, as an opportunity to foster policy dialogue between Tunisia and key partners. When the in-depth policy analysis will be published, the OECD will co-organise an event with the Tunisian government to present the key conclusions. A series of workshops and seminars will also be organised with representatives of civil society and academia. Sub-component 1.B- Enhancing MDICI forecasting, planning and monitoring capacities (Activities executed by the GoT) This sub-component aims at strengthening the capacity of the MDICI in planning, designing and implementing reforms under the 2016-2020 SDP and beyond. Specifically the component will seek to: (i) Enhance the GoT’s forecasting and implementation capacity of macroeconomic policies, (ii) Improve Quantitative Impact assessment of structural reforms, and (iii) Develop dashboards that would ensure more effective monitoring of Tunisia’s economic performance. Activity 1.B.1: Enhance forecasting and implementation capacity of macroeconomic policies The MDICI has a long experience and proved competency in planning, forecasting and implementing macroeconomic policies. Enhancing these capacities is key for the development of growth patterns including, among others, planning of public funding needs, public investment and for maintaining macroeconomic balances. A macro econometric model has been implemented with the support of the European Union and AfDB. The MIDCI (department of forecasting namely Direction Générale des Previsions (DGP) and the Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes Quantitatives (ITCEQ)) are seeking to develop other useful tools to complement this model. This includes a Model using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) approach in order to forecast and assess the impact of fiscal and monetary policies. International institutions, central banks and governments currently use such approach in order to assess budget scenarios and the GoT is keen to adopt such best practice. In addition, the DGP and ITCEQ would like to introduce intra annual forecasting techniques to improve the short-term forecasting performance. These approaches are extremely useful to monitor the economic condition at the 2nd quarter perspective. The project will be supporting the introduction of these new forecasting techniques. Therefore, this activity will: Develop a DSGE model and a dynamic factor model to forecast and analyze Tunisia’s macroeconomic performance. These models will build on international best practices while being adapted to the Tunisian economy context, Build the capacity of ITCEQ, DGP and other relevant ministerial staff to use, maintain and update the above requested developed models. This will be done through organization of 4 training sessions on (1) advanced macroeconomics, (2) programming on the software used to develop the model (3) modelling and simulation, (4) how to use models’ outputs to prepare policy briefs. At least 10 staff from DGP and ITCEQ will benefit from this training. 10 Activity 1.B.2: Improve Quantitative Impact assessment of structural reforms The objective of this activity is to develop a series of monitoring tools to quantify the expected ex-ante impact of reforms to be undertaken by the GoT. The models will be developed in close cooperation with ITCEQ and DGP to enhance effectiveness of the GoT’s impact assessment capacity. More specifically, the models should be adapted to fiscal policy (CGE model), social security reforms (overlapping generations model), trade integration (multi-country CGE model) and impact assessment of reforms aiming to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (econometric and CGE models). Therefore, this activity will: Develop a CGE model that delivers medium term scenarios of macroeconomic performance and quantitative assessment of the impact of envisaged reforms. The model include a userfriendly interface that would allow simple use by policy makers. Develop an overlapping generation model that measures the quantitative impact of social security and retirement reforms. Adapt and upgrade an existing multi-country CGE model by adding the features of the Tunisian economy in order to quantitatively simulate and assess the impact of commercial reforms. Perform a diagnostic that will identify reforms needed for Tunisia to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and build a CGE model that will assess coherence between these reforms and quantify their joint feasibility and effect. Build the capacity of ITCEQ, DGP and other relevant ministerial staff to use, maintain and update the above requested models. This will be done through organization of 4 training sessions on (1) simulations using CGE, (2) econometric techniques, (3) programming on the software used to develop the model, (4) how to use models’ outputs to prepare policy briefs. At least 15 staff from DGP and ITCEQ will benefit from this training. Activity 1.B.3: Development of Dashboard The objective of this activity is to develop a dashboard to track key indicators that are important for the implementation of the 5-year plan as well as economic conditions (economic and competitiveness, environment for sustainability, social). The dashboard will also be used to set up and monitor indicators against thresholds that will trigger corrective actions. Specifically, this activity will: Define the indicators to be tracked and methodology, protocol to feed the dashboard, Develop a user friendly interface, Calibrate and test the system and running simulations. Component 2: Support to inclusive regional development through improved regional statistics and M&E capacity The new constitution adopted in 2014 places regional development at the centre of the government’s priorities, and gives local authorities a key role in economic and social planning and development. Five years after the revolution, regional disparities remain very large. The SDP 2016-2020 seeks to reduce permanently these differences. This component will have 2 pillars to be executed respectively by the OECD and the GoT. The AfDB will ensure oversight of the activities that are executed by the GoT. Sub-component 2.A: Support the GoT in developing a system of internationally comparable indicators at the sub-national level (activities executed by the OECD) This sub-component will be implemented by the OECD as ISA, in consultation with the Government of Tunisia. Its overall objective is to improve the implementation, monitoring and evaluation of regional 11 development and social policies in Tunisia through a strengthened governance of regional statistics. It covers only activities that are not supported by the twinning project funded by the European Union for the period 2016-2017 to the benefit of the INS (which is under the purview of the MDICI-see Annex 3) and leverages the achievements of 2 ongoing projects funded by the EU on regional statistics, including the restructuring of regional INS offices.3 The sub-component will also support the activities of related MDICI institutions, namely the DGDR (Direction Générale du Développement Régional)4; ODS (Office de Développement du Sud); ODNO (Office de Développement du Nord Ouest); ODCO (Office de Développement du centre Ouest) Commissariat Général au Développement Régional (CGDR); Institute National de la Statistique (INS); CNS (Conseil National des Statistiques). Collaboration with Ministries in charge of administrative data relevant for regional statistics (for example, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social Affairs, Ministry for the Employment), will be sought concerning the identification, design and use of regional statistical information. All activities are inter-linked and contribute to building an improved knowledge base for the public and private sectors, as well as the civil society in Tunisia. The sub-component will benefit from the accumulated knowledge and experience sharing of the OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators (WPTI). The availability of accurate regional statistics would also allow Tunisian data to be compared with peer countries (including, for instance, through Tunisia’s participation in the OECD flagship publication Regions at a Glance), which would enable the GoT to participate more actively into international fora, such as the OECD Regional Development Policy Committee (RDPC), subject to the applicable OECD rules. The work will offer a diagnosis of the legal and regulatory frameworks, data gaps in the context of a reformed multi-level governance system, as well as capacity needs at the national and the sub-national level to carry out new functions in the production and use of regional statistics. Specific activities envisaged under this sub-component include: 1. Diagnosis of the current governance system of territorial statistics and identification of the information needs for the design and implementation of regional development policies. This action aims at strengthening the dialogue and exchange of information between producers and users of regional statistics, identify possible obstacles for a good governance of regional statistics, identify the priority sectors where administrative data sources can be exploited for regional statistics, and build capacity within ministries to transform the administrative information into statistics. 2. Compare the regional typology of Tunisia with the OECD typology for different levels with the aim of better understanding economic and social realities in urban and rural areas and increasing international comparability of Tunisian statistics. This work will use existing information and covers the use of alternative sources of data, including geographic information systems (GIS) and administrative data, to complement traditional sources – censuses and surveys – in the identification of geographical units and monitoring global and national development objectives at different regional scales. 3. Knowledge transfer on government statistics compiled under the international methodology of national accounts. This work will include non-financial accounts and financial accounts and balance sheets for the general government sector and sub-sectors (central government, local governments and social security). It will also help assess the methods to produce 3 The Technical Assitance was extended under the Programme for the Support of the Association Agreement and the Transition "P3AT" (Programme d’Appui à l’Accord d’Association et à la Transition « P3AT »). Annex 3 provides a brief summary of this project. 4 The DGDR coordinates the work of the Offices of Development which produce the publications “governorates in numbers.” 12 data on regional and local government budgets (expenditure, revenue, tax revenue) to better understand spending needs and charges. Three final outputs foreseen for this sub-component could be summarized as follows: First, one workshop organized and facilitated by the OECD to support the sustainability of the Tunisian regional indicators production over time. During the workshop, international experiences will be presented to foster knowledge transfer. Participants will include national civil servants and staff from statistical offices. Local and regional authorities could be invited to participate. Second a document that summarizes the results of the diagnosis of the governance of statistics for regional development; this document will be peer reviewed by the OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators and discussed in the MENA OECD Governance Programme. The third output of this activity would be Tunisia’s participation in the 2018 OECD Regions at a Glance publication. First published in 2007, this bi-annual report provides an overview of regional contributions to national prosperity and well-being in OECD countries and emerging economies from a comparative perspective, which enables countries to assess regional disparities and progress made by lagging-behind regions. Sub-component 2.B: Enhance effectiveness of Tunisia’s regional development policies through strengthened M&E capacity and improved indicators (activities executed by the GoT) This sub-component will be executed by the GoT. The African Development Bank will act as ISA and ensure oversight of planned activities. Its main objective is to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of regional development policies by (i) reviewing historical regional development policies to identify gaps and weaknesses, (ii) building indicators that measure the attractiveness of regions with the goal to identify areas for interventions and priorities, and (iii) strengthening the GoT’s capacity in monitoring and evaluating the impact of regional development policies. Activity 2.B.1: Strengthen the GoT’s capacity to monitor and evaluate regional development policies Under this activity, he project will strengthen MDICI's ability to implement, monitor and evaluate regional development policies by (i) providing an assessment of the effectiveness of previous regional development policies (before the revolution); (ii) building a monitoring and evaluation system for regional development policies using a participatory approach; and (iii) strengthening capacity in terms of monitoring and evaluation of regional development policies. The outcomes of this activity are: Produce a diagnostic assessment of historical regional development policies to identify best practices and weaknesses that need to be addressed. The output will be a diagnostic report of regional development policies shared through a dissemination seminar. Develop a monitoring and evaluation system of regional development policies involving civil society. The tool will serve as a decision making tool at the service of the structures responsible for promoting regional development, including those under the purview of the MDICI (CGDR, ODNO, and ODCO ODS). This monitoring and evaluation system will also serve as a monitoring tool for the implementation of public projects in regions included in the 2016-2020 SDP as well as its evaluation and adjustment. Strengthen the capacity of MDICI and sectoral ministries in terms of monitoring and evaluation of regional development policies through training sessions and / or study visits in other countries for best practice sharing. At least 3 training sessions will be organized to train 20 government staff from MDCI and 9 other key sectorial ministries (equipment, agriculture, education, health, transport, women and family, local affairs, etc.) as well as key agencies such as the National 13 institute of Statistics. A study tour will also be organized for 3 staff from DGDR (at MDCI) for best practice sharing. Activity 2.B.2: Development of regional attractiveness indicators This activity is fully aligned with the objective of promoting the attractiveness of regions that the GoT is emphasizing in its regional development policy. Actions envisaged entail the development of indicators measuring the attractiveness of Tunisia’s different regions on different dimensions (i.e. economic, social, etc.), in terms of public and private investment, public services, social and community facilities, infrastructure, etc. Such indicators will allow the GoT to identify gaps and regions that have disadvantages to attract domestic and foreign investment. These indicators will inform reform efforts and design of regional development policies and projects to achieve inclusive economic growth, and accelerate jobs creation. Component 3: Support Tunisia’s open data agenda through a new statistical dissemination infrastructure (OECD-executed) This component will support the development of a sustainable and robust statistical dissemination infrastructure to provide relevant and timely data to monitor progress of Tunisia’s economic situation and policies through relevant indicators, and data enriched policy dialogue with civil society and key partners. In this context, the INS is expected to adopt .Stat as the underpinning component of the statistical dissemination infrastructure. To facilitate for this, INS, subject to the signature of a memorandum of understanding with the OECD, would become a member of the Statistical Information System Collaboration Community (SIS-CC). The work will start with a scoping exercise with the goal of identifying the current infrastructure and technical capabilities of INS, and statistical processes underpinning data dissemination. This initial work would lead to an output called ‘blueprint for statistical dissemination at INS’ composed of following parts: Assessment of INS data dissemination processes and definition of the 2 year target Assessment of INS data product portfolio and definition of the 2 year target Assessment of INS ICT Infrastructure and definition of the 2 year target Delivery of a prototype of the future INS data dissemination platform based on available data, and on a prototype instance of INS.Stat temporarily hosted at OECD. Detailed identification of the 2 year target, action plan and refined resource requirement to reach it. Communication will be extremely important during that phase with all stakeholders at INS (statisticians, communication and technical staff). Workshops will need to be facilitated to build capacity and develop a common understanding, both in Tunis and in Paris. Following the blueprint, several phases and outputs are envisaged, subject to confirmation after blueprint assessment: .Stat product adaptation based on the INS context and needs; at minimum the development of specific feature to support the Arabic language, and right to left display of text will entail product adaptation. The work effort to achieve this is expected to be between 5-6 months. .Stat platform installation and integration in INS IT environment: Cloud implementation could be envisaged. 14 Capacity building of INS statistical, communication and technical staff. Stat maintenance and support: The same contribution as the one requested from all other organisations using .Stat for dissemination today will enable OECD team to support the INS team on a regular basis and also fund SIS-CC coordination work. OECD expects the ‘Go live’ of INS.Stat to happen somewhere between 9 to 16 months after start of the project, so as to ensure several iteration before end of the project for INS to be fully in capacity to continue to innovate on the platform in a more autonomous manner. Component 4: Project Management and audit (activities executed by the GoT) A Project Manager will be recruited by the GoT under the overall oversight of AfDB as ISA and tasked with providing advisory services and implementation support. The following deliverables are expected from the Project Manager: (i) prepare ToRs for the recruitment of the different consultants that will deliver the goods and services sought under this project; (ii) facilitate coordination between the different entities and departments within MDICI that are covered by this project (DGP, ITCEQ, DGDR and INS, etc.), but also coordination with the relevant line ministries and stakeholders; (iii) ensure end-to-end coherence of project activities from institutional/policy work to actual delivery of the overall project; (iv) organize the dialogue within the donor coordination unit; and (v) organize workshops, seminars and training sessions to the projects’ beneficiaries. An external auditor should also be recruited to perform the audit of the project at mid-term (18 months) and at project closing, based on project financial statements prepared by ITCEQ. The 2 audits must be performed according to AfDB standard terms of reference for review of grants and trust funds. 15. Key Indicators Linked to Objectives Activities supported by this project should foster the delivery of accelerated, sustainable and inclusive growth by enhancing the efficiency of the implementation of the 2016-2020 SDP, and Tunisia’s future structural reforms and policies both at the macro and regional levels. By strengthening capacity in policy and reform design, monitoring and evaluation, the project will provide the GoT with clear information about the expected outcomes and impact of projects and structural reforms and policies envisaged in its development programme. It will also allow the GoT to compare its performance to relevant peers, assess the impact of its actions and put in place an effective monitoring system of the Tunisian economy’s performance in terms of economic growth, social wellbeing, competitiveness and sustainability. The key results indicators for the project include: Accelerated economic growth (in line with the assumptions of the SDP 2016-2020); Reduced regional disparities through enhanced economic opportunities in regions (difference between highest and lowest regional unemployment rates); Improved enabling environment and government capacity to implement the SDP 2016-2020 (qualitative indicator linked to MENA TF pillar outcome indicator 5.1); Government bodies and institutions supported (indicator linked to MENA TF pillar output indicator 3.1.2); Documents produced (studies, assessments, reports, etc.) (indicator linked to MENA TF pillar output indicator 5.1.1) The project’s Results Framework in Section F of this proposal provides a full description of the project’s indicators and targets. 15 D. IMPLEMENTATION 16. Partnership Arrangements (if applicable) A. Tunisian Government The GoT will ensure overall coordination among the key stakeholders of the project. It will also be responsible for the execution of activities for which AfDB will act as ISA. The Ministry of Investment, Development and International Cooperation (MIDCI) will be the recipient of the grant funding the GoTexecuted activities. A Project steering committee will be created within MDICI to guide project implementation and monitor key decisions and outputs. This steering committee should include representatives from key departments and entities that will contribute and benefit from the project, such the forecasting and planning department (DGP), the regional development department (DGDR), the National institute of Statistics (INS) and the Tunisian Institute of Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies (ITCEQ). From a fiduciary perspective, ITCEQ will be acting as the project’s executing agency (PIU) for the GoT-executed activities. ITCEQ is a center producing studies on economies, social and competitiveness issues that is under the purview of MDICI. It was created in 1973 and has the status of a non aadministrative public institution (établissement public à caractère non administrative). A project manager will be recruited to assist and advise the PIU and key stakeholders during the implementation of the project to ensure successful delivery of results and outcomes. B. African Development Bank The AfDB will contribute its experience and knowledge of support to structural reforms and project financing and implementation. Specifically, the AfDB will aim to provide operational and hands-on experience acquired during its rich experience in supporting reforms and capacity building on the continent and in Tunisia. The AfDB will also aim to create synergies between this project and its policy based operations (i.e. budget support operations, including the 2 ongoing ones targeting financial sector reforms and regional development) and technical assistance grants in Tunisia. AfDB will be solely responsible for the oversight and management of the funds used for the GoT-executed portion of the project (components 1.B, 2B and 4). C. OECD The OECD will execute components 1.A, 2.A and 3 of the project as ISA. The OECD will contribute its experience and know-how in economic forecasting and monitoring, structural policies and reforms, regional development and statistics. In addition, Tunisia will be able to benefit from benchmarking and best practice sharing from OECD countries and other emerging economies as well as peer reviews and dialogue in the context of relevant OECD committees and bodies (e.g. OECD Regional Development Policy Committee). D. Other stakeholders (e.g. civil society, donors) The project will build on the on-going consultation process regarding the preparation of the SDP 20162020. In addition, coordination with development partners active in the areas covered by this proposal (i.e. economic planning, general government capacity building, regional development, and statistics) will be ensured regularly to create further synergies. In addition, MDICI, as the government’s focal point and interlocutor for development partners, will ensure that coordination is handled effectively. The OECD/AfDB team will also ensure regular and routine coordination during implementation to enhance project impact. 16 17. Coordination with Country-led Mechanism/Donor Implemented Activities Several donors have been and still are supporting ongoing and planned GoT’s reform efforts. Between 2011 and 2015, the AfDB alone provided 3 budget support loans to the tune of 1.3 billion and 2 of these operations were jointly executed with other development partners, namely the World Bank and the European Union. Similarly, all 3 institutions have budget support operations planned for 2016. Overall, the policy matrices of these operations include reforms aimed at (i) enhancing macroeconomic stabilization, (ii) improve the business environment, (iii) reduce regional disparities (iv) create income and job opportunities , and improve (v) governance and accountability. Hence, the activities planned under this project would be complementary to streams (i), (iii) and (v) of the work programme of these development partners. For instance, AfDB’s 2016 policy-based operation on regional development includes reform measures to enhance capacity and public investment in regions which will serve the project’s purpose and vice versa . In addition, several donors such as UNDP are providing assistance for the actual preparation and drafting of the 5-year plan while others such as AfDB, GIZ and JICA have produced analytical work on regional development issues that would inform the regional development plans that Tunisia will develop and implement in the years to come. The GoT is also planning an international conference to present the 5year plan during fall 2016, which will be attended by both private investors and donors (AfDB, EIB, EBRD, IsDB, etc.). The latter will most likely be contributing to financing projects under this plan. By providing the necessary capacity to GoT to execute and monitor the 5-year plan and associated reforms, this project will support and facilitate the engagement of donors during the implementation of the plan. 18. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements The project will be funded by the MENA transition Fund and the GoT, whose contribution will be in kind in the form of staff time, facilities, offices and equipment used and other services. AfDB and the OECD will receive from the MENA transition Fund the part of the grant resources that would allow each one of them to cover the direct cost of activities for which it acts as ISA as well as its share of the grant indirect cost. Each ISA will be using its own rules and procedures to execute and disburse these resources. The OECD’s components will be fully ISA-executed while the components for which AfDB acts as ISA will be executed by the GoT. The first and the second components will have an ISA-executed part and a country-executed part. The third component is fully ISA-executed by the OECD while the fourth component is GoT executed under the oversight of the AfDB as ISA. A steering committee involving will be created at the level of MDICI to provide guidance/recommendations on the project’s progress, key decisions and outputs. This steering committee should be chaired by a senior staff from MDCI (as the latter has ultimate responsibility for executing the 5-year plan) and include representatives from key departments and entities that will contribute and benefit from the project, such as DGP, DGDR, INS and ITCEQ. The steering committee will have a launching workshop at project inception to agree on the set and timing of key milestones as well as distribution of roles and responsibilities among all stakeholders. For activities executed by the GoT, ITCEQ will be acting as the executing agency. A project manager will be hired to provide support to the execution agency while an external auditor will be hired to perform the audit of the project at mid-term and at end of the project. The project manager must also support the steering committee to prepare quarterly reports that will be submitted to the GoTs / MDICI Minister as well as implementing agencies. In order to ensure speedy recruitment of the project manager, the latter will be recruited as an Individual consultant (to be financed under the GoT-executed sub-components) and procured following comparison of qualification of at least three (03) candidates. Qualification comparison will be done based on information on their Curriculum vitae. 17 19. Monitoring and Evaluation of Results The monitoring and evaluation of the Project and its expected results will be coordinated by the Ministry of Development, Investment and International Cooperation (MDICI), ITCEQ and the Project Manager recruited under Component 4. MDICI shall regularly report against the targets indicated in the results framework of the Project. Quarterly monitoring and progress reports will be prepared and submitted to AfDB and the OECD. The Project Manager will ensure close coordination among key stakeholders and provide timely support to the executing agency as required. AfDB will also perform annual supervision missions covering GoT executed activities to document progress and identify challenges that would need corrective actions. Regular meetings will be also organized between the 2 ISAs to ensure full coordination. Such approach has been used for another MENATF project (i.e. operationalization of PPP) and proved very useful. Also, a mid-term review will be carried out to assess progress and to draw lessons from the Project and provide an opportunity to adjust activities to ensure that the Project meets its objectives. A final report will be prepared at the end of the Project. E. PROJECT BUDGETING AND FINANCING 20. Project Financing (including ISA Direct Costs5), Estimated budget Cost by Component Transition Fund (USD) OECD as ISA 5 Country CoFinancing (USD) Total (USD) AfDB as ISA Component 1: 953,985 820,000 110,000 1,883,985 (a) Sub-component 1.A: Activity 1.A.1 Activity 1.A.2 Activity 1.A.3 953,985 251,665 421,572 280,748 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 953,985 (b) Sub-component 1.B: Activity 1.B.1 Activity 1.B.2 Activity 1.A.3 0 0 0 0 820,000 200,000 300,000 320,000 110,000 25,000 35,000 50,000 930,000 Component 2: 352,160 700,000 66,000 1,118,160 (a) Sub-component 2.A: 352,160 0 0 352,160 (b) Sub-component 2.B: Activity 2.B.1 0 0 700,000 500,000 66,000 33,000 766,000 533,000 ISA direct costs are those costs related to the ISA’s direct provision of technical assistance within the project. 18 Activity 2.B.2 Component 3: 0 200,000 33,000 233,000 541,872 0 0 541,872 0 310,000 300,000 10,000 55,000 55,000 0 365,000 355,000 10,000 1,848,017 1,830,000 231,000 3,909,017 Component 4: Project management Audit Total direct Project Cost 21. Budget Breakdown of Indirect Costs Requested (USD) Description For grant preparation, administration and implementation support: OECD indirect costs* AfDB indirect costs Total Indirect Costs Amount (USD) 124,253 100,000 224,253 * Since 1 March 2005, the Organisation applies an indirect VC administration charge to all voluntary contributions accepted. A new cost recovery policy was adopted by Council in November 2009. The current base rate is 6.3% of the total amount of the contribution to which adjustments may apply. 19 F. Results Framework and Monitoring Project Development Objective (PDO): Enhance efficiency and effectiveness in the implementation of Tunisia’s 5-year Strategic Development Plan and structural reforms by strengthening the Government’s statistical, monitoring and evaluation capacity in project and reform management PDO Level Results Indicators Unit Baseline Cumulative Target Values Frequency Data Source/ Responsibility Description (Indicator Methodology for Data Definition, etc) Y1 Y2 Y3 Collection PDO indicator 1: Enhanced Quantitative 0.8% (INS) 2% 3% 4% Annual National Project Annual GDP growth rate economic growth measured Institute of Implementation for 2016, 2017 and 2018 Statistics and Team (PIT); DGP (MDICI) MDICI PDO indicator 2: Reduced regional Quantitative 30 20 Once National Project Difference between disparities percentage percentage Institute of Implementation highest and lowest points points regional unemployment Statistics (INS) Team (PIT) rates PDO indicator 3: Improved enabling Qualitative Capacity Improved Annual Project Project Qualitative assessment of gaps environment and government capacity reports Implementation improved government capacity to implement capacity to implement the SDP capturing Team (PIT) the SDP effectively 2016-2020 (MENA TF pillar progress and indicator 5.1) results PDO indicator 5: Documents produced (MENA TF pillar indicator 5.1.1) Quantitative 0 1 7 10 Annual for OECD, once for GoT Project reports capturing progress and results; documents produced Project Implementation Team (PIT) Studies, assessments, reports, action plans, roadmaps, models of good practices or frameworks designed and (if applicable) endorsed by the GoT PDO indicator 6: Government bodies and institutions including local governments supported (MENA TF pillar indicator 3.1.2) Quantitative 0 6 8 9 Annual Project reports capturing progress and results Project Implementation Team (PIT) Government bodies and institutions receiving support (target: DGP, DGDR, ITCEQ, ODS, ODNO, ODCO, CGDR, CNS, INS) 20 INTERMEDIATE RESULTS Component 1: Support for the implementation of macro-economic and structural policies under the Strategic Development Plan and the design of future reforms and policies Indicator 1.1: Availability of economic projections for Tunisia based on OECD methodology Quantitativ e Economic projections not benchmark ed 1 3 5 Semi-annually OECD Economic Outlook PIT Indicator 1.2: Availability of structural indicators and policy recommendations Quantitativ e Tunisia not participatin g - 1 (interim) 3 (interim and main report) Annual (bi-annual main report and interim reports) OECD Going for Growth publication PIT Indicator 1.3: Availability of in-depth policy analysis (Economic Report), including policy recommendations Quantitativ e No report - 1 1 Once Tunisia Economic Report PIT Indicator 1.4: Capacity building through seminars in Tunisia / participation of government officials in OECD Committees Quantitativ e None 1/1 3/3 5/3 Annually PIT Indicator 1.5: Number of Tunisian officials seconded to the OECD to foster knowledge transfer Indicator 1.6: Number of structural reforms and policies for which exante quantitative impact assessment is performed Indicator 1.7: Models developed for enhanced forecasting, planning and monitoring by MDICI Quantitativ e None 1 2 2 Annually Qualitative 0 - - 4 Annually Project progress reports; minutes of meetings and seminars Project progress reports Project progress reports Qualitative 0 - 3 3 Annually Project progress reports 21 Development of economic projections in line with OECD standards allowing for benchmarking under the bi-annual OECD Economic Outlook. Inclusion of Tunisia in the OECD Going for Growth publication, including capacity building to maintain indicators in the future Economic Report covering macroeconomic and structural aspects and policy recommendations, followed by a workshop on structural reforms Number of seminars organised in Tunisia / Number of missions of Tunisian officials to OECD HQ PIT Number of secondees to the OECD PIT Assessment for 2018 to be carried out PIT Development and operationalisation of DGSE, dynamic factor and CGE models; related training activities Indicator 1.8: Number of Training sessions organized Quantitativ e 0 - 4 7 Once Project progress reports PIT Training related to maintenance and use of DGSE, dynamic factor and CGE models; Project progress report; workshop report Diagnostic report, minutes of Working Party Meeting PIT Workshop focusing on the production of regional indicators and their sustainability over time PIT/OECD Diagnostic report , including targeted recommendations, to be peer reviewed by the OECD Working Party on Territorial Indicators and discussed at MENA OECD Governance Programme Benchmarking of regional contributions to national prosperity and well-being through Regions at a Glance publication Diagnostic assessment of regional development policies including best practices and weaknesses; dissemination seminar M&E tool involving civil society will also monitor public projects implemented in the regions under SDP Indicator set developed and published Component 2: Support to inclusive regional development policies through improved regional statistical capacity Indicator 2.1: Capacity building through workshop on the production of regional indicators Quantitativ e None - 1 1 Once Indicator 2.2: Diagnostic of the governance of statistics for regional development developed Quantitativ e None - 1 1 Once Indicator 2.3: Tunisia’s benchmarking through participation in the OECD Regions at a Glance publication completed Quantitativ e None - - 1 Annually OECD Regions at a Glance OECD Indicator 2.4: Diagnostic assessment of historical regional development policies finalised Quantitativ e None - 1 1 Once Diagnostic assessment PIT Indicator 2.5: Monitoring and evaluation system of regional development policies is active Quantitativ e None - 1 1 Once Project progress reports PIT Indicator 2.7: National indicators measuring regional attractiveness are available Indicator 2.8: Number of staff of MDICI and sectoral ministries participating in capacity building on M&E of regional policies Quantitativ e None - 1 1 Annually PIT Quantitativ e None - 10 20 Once Project progress reports Project progress reports; training reports 22 PIT Capacity building including trainings and / or study visits Component 3: Support to Tunisia’s open data agenda through a new statistical dissemination infrastructure Indicator 3.1: Statistical dissemination infrastructure installed and operational Qualitative None - 1 1 23 Once Project progress report, .Stat infrastructure PIT INS.Stat system developed and operational
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