The Future of
Educational
Inequality:
What Went
Wrong, and How
Can We Fix It?
ADAM GAMORAN
William T. Grant Foundation
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Founded in 1936
Committed to
understanding
human behavior
through research.
The most pressing
challenges
confronting young
people change
over time.
Current Research Priorities
Use of Research Evidence
Quality of research evidence has improved, but
that doesn’t mean it’s used in decisions
Grantees have found that quality of relationships
matters more than quality of evidence
•
Relationships between producers and consumers of
evidence, and intermediaries who connect them
We support studies of how to create conditions
for evidence use and how use of evidence affects
youth outcomes
Reducing Inequality
Inequality by economic, racial/ethnic linguistic,
and immigrant origins is pervasive
Evidence exists on the nature and sources of
inequality
Ways to reduce inequality are less well understood
We support research on programs, policies, and
practices that reduce inequality in youth outcomes
 Academic, social, behavioral, and economic
outcomes
Reducing Inequality
“Inequality” has two meanings
 Overall dispersion of an outcome
 Group differences in an outcome
 We’d like to reduce the first and eliminate the
second
Reducing Inequality
“Reducing inequality” is not the same as fighting
poverty
 We’d like to reduce inequality across the
spectrum
One can “reduce inequality” by elevating those
lower down or holding back those who are on top
 Only the former is of interest
Inequality in the Headlines
Inequality in the Headlines
“Research may be able to provide evidence on
which public policies are most helpful in building
an economy in which people are poised to get
ahead. Conversely, it would also be beneficial to
understand whether any policies may hold people
back or discourage upward mobility.”
Inequality is the Problem
1. Levels of inequality are exceptionally high
2. High inequality causes economic and social
harm
3. Social policies can combat inequality
4. We need research to identify effective
policies, programs, and practices
Spotlight on Educational Inequality
My Forecast for the 21st Century
“Prediction is difficult,
especially about the future.”
Spotlight on Educational Inequality
My Forecast for the 21st Century
In 2001, I predicted that racial inequality would
decline over the course of the 21st century
• A “virtuous cycle” based on advances in the 20th century
• Particularly a convergence in high school completion and a
narrowing test-score gap
• Justice O’Connor had the same idea
• I said by 2010 we’d know if my forecast was accurate
How are things looking so far?
Not so well!
Spotlight on Educational Inequality
My Forecast for the 21st Century
I also predicted no change in socioeconomic
inequality in education during the 21st century
• “Persistent inequality” during the 20th century
• Poor people are not a protected class in the U.S.
• Lack of mobilization for rights of the poor
How has this prediction turned out?
Also not so well!
Spotlight on Educational Inequality
Questions for Today
1. What are the trends in educational inequality,
particularly since 2000?
2. What lies behind the numbers?
3. What can we do about it?
How can research yield evidence on ways
to reduce educational inequality?
Trends in Educational Inequality
Gaps in College Enrollment Immediately After High
School, 1975-2010
Percentage Point Difference
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1975
1980
1985
Black-White Gap
1990
1995
2000
2005
Low vs. High Income Gap
Note: Figures are three-year moving averages.
Source: Digest of Educational Statistics 2013, Tables 302.20 and 302.30.
2010
Trends in Educational Inequality
Black-White Gap in High School and College
Completion, 1970-2010
Percentage Point Difference
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
High School Completion Gap
1995
2000
2005
College Completion Gap
Source: Digest of Educational Statistics 2012, Table 9.
2010
Trends in Educational Inequality
SES Gaps in High School and College Completion,
1992 - 2012
Percentage Point Difference
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1992
2000
High School Completion Gap
2012
College Completion Gap
Notes: Gap is between top and bottom SES quartiles. High school includes equivalency; college includes associate’s degree.
Sources: Digest of Educational Statistics 1995, Table 299; 2007, Table 313; 2013, Table 104.90.
Trends in Educational Inequality
NAEP Trends in Math at Age 13
NAEP Score Gap
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1973
1978
1982
1986
Black-White Gap
1990
1994
1999
2004
2008
High School-College Gap
Source: Digest of Educational Statistics 2013, Table 222.85.
2012
Trends in Educational Inequality
NAEP Trends in Reading at Age 13
NAEP Score Gap
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1971 1975 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 1999 2004 2008 2012
Black-White Gap
High School-College Gap
Source: Digest of Educational Statistics 2013, Table 221.85.
Trends in Educational Inequality
Summary of Trends
Black-white gaps in high school completion and
college enrollment have narrowed, but the gap in
college completion has widened
Modest declines in racial achievement gaps – slower
than I (or Justice O’Connor) predicted
• At current rates, 100 years to erase the test score gap
Socioeconomic gaps have remained steady in some
areas (attainment) and gotten worse in others (test
scores)
What lies behind these trends?
Black-White Inequality in Education
A virtuous cycle was
supposed to narrow the gaps.
Why has this not worked out?
Black-White Inequality in Education
1. Educational attainment pays off less for
Blacks than for Whites
First suggested by skeptics, documented in “Whither
the virtuous cycle?”
• Returns to parental education 16% lower for blacks
• Greater differential in recent decades
• Holds for all levels of education (high school completion,
college enrollment & completion)
Why the drag on the virtuous cycle?
Black-White Inequality in Education
1. Educational attainment pays off less for
Blacks than for Whites
On-time high school completion has not converged as
fast as overall completion rates
• On-time completion is important for postsecondary chances
Convergence in high school completion includes high
rates of GED among Blacks
• Payoff to GED is lower than to a high school diploma
Wealth inequality constrains advancement even when
educational attainment becomes more equal
Black-White Inequality in Education
1. Educational attainment pays off less for
Blacks than for Whites
School quality differences
• Teacher sorting within and between schools
Persisting residential segregation
• Parents with higher levels of education unable to confer
advantages to their children
Black-White Inequality in Education
2. Mass incarceration has shattered the
virtuous cycle
Dramatic increase in U.S. incarceration rates
Overrepresentation of African American males among
the incarcerated
• Reduces educational attainment
• Harmful to children: cognitive and non-cognitive effects
• Harmful effects especially salient for African American boys
Mass incarceration may also contribute to the rise of
single-parent families, and the increasing race gap
Spins the virtuous cycle into a vicious cycle!
SES Inequality in Education
Why have SES gaps
widened?
1. Rising income
inequality
SOURCES: PIKETTY & SAEZ, 2009
KRUGMAN, 2007
NOAH, 2012
SES Inequality in Education
SOURCES: WSJ 2/11/16
PIKETTY, 2014
GORDON, 2016
SES Inequality in Education
2. Increasing gaps in
family investments
in children
SOURCE: The Economist (2015) based
on Putnam (2015).
SES Inequality in Education
3. Increasing income
segregation
(Reardon, 2011)
and concentration
of urban poverty
(Sharkey, 2013)
SOURCE: Sharkey (2013).
Responses to Inequality
What do we need to know to craft effective
responses to growing inequality?
Yellen: More research is needed!
We don’t know everything about what generates
inequality, but we know enough to build a body of
evidence on potential gap-closers
Need for Research on Reducing
Inequality
High-quality social science research on youth
development can help
Not just in education
•
•
•
•
Workforce transition
Immigration
Child welfare & mental health
Justice systems
Key domains for the William T. Grant
Foundation
Research on Reducing Inequality
Postsecondary education and workforce transition
25 years since The Forgotten Half
Who are the ‘new forgotten half”?
• Attend but do not complete college
• Reap no rewards
New research agenda
• Describe the new college reality
• Study improvements in high school
and college counseling
• Show how to improve high school,
college, and workplace links
• Financial support is part of the story
Research on Reducing Inequality
Immigrant children and families
Contexts of immigration intersect
to generate inequality
• Poverty, newcomer status, language
barriers, undocumented status
Family and education provide
contexts for alleviating inequality
Pressing research agenda
• Immigrants as core policy concern
• Study policy efforts to aid immigrant
adaptation e.g. DACA
• Avoid a deficit framework
Research on Reducing Inequality
Mental health & mental health services
Mental health disparities
contribute to and respond to
educational inequality
Childhood adversities contribute
to disparities in mental health
New research agenda
• Study key periods of risk
• Reduce childhood adversities
• Target family, school, &
neighborhood mechanisms
Research on Reducing Inequality
Juvenile and Criminal Justice
Inequality in the justice system is
on all our minds today
Closely bound up with educational
inequality
How can new research help?
• Break the school-to-prison pipeline
• Implement & study new police
practices
• Change patterns of thinking
• Reduce economic inequality in the
broader society
U.S. Policy Can Address Inequality
In today’s rhetoric, inequality seems inevitable
Piketty: Returns to capital exceed income growth
Gordon: Productivity growth is anemic
Yet inequality also responds to institutions
Institutions are
amenable to policy
U.S. Policy Can Address Inequality
War on Poverty
Has not been won
Poverty would be
worse without it
Food stamps, school
lunches, EITC, housing
& unemployment
assistance
U.S. Policy Can Address Inequality
Other programs, policies, and practices have
reduced the effects of inequality on children
High-quality early childhood programs
Programs that promote healthy parenting
Family-school engagement programs
Small classes in early elementary grades
Social-psychological interventions
Financial aid assistance
Constraints of disadvantage are not unbreakable
U.S. Policy Can Address Inequality
If all these programs work, why the growth
in inequality?
Effective responses have emerged, but they are
modest compared to the scope of the problem
Programs take time to have effects
• School reforms take 3-5 years to work
• Early child care effects emerge a decade later
Need for multiple efforts across multiple spheres
• Family, health, neighborhood, school, workforce
Programs, policies, practice work differently in
different contexts and for different individuals
Implementation, implementation, impleme…
Need for Research on Reducing
Inequality
Hallmarks of our approach
Focus on young people (ages 5 to 25)
In the long run, research we support will lead to
action
• Build, understand, test, and improve programs, policies,
and practices
• No single study will be transformative
• Results will accumulate to guide policy and practice
Support for tools that benefit many researchers
Interdisciplinary portfolio
We seek researchers to answer this call
Funding Opportunities
Our Approach
We choose our
research
interests based
on what's going
on in the world
today.
We begin with
a set of questions,
not preconceptions.
We favor an
interdisciplinary
approach to
research.
Our Work
Grant Types
High-quality research
to ensure that young
people from diverse
backgrounds reach
their fullest potential
.
RESEARCH
WTG DISTINGUISHED FELLOWS
WTG SCHOLARS
YOUTH SERVICE IMPROVEMENT
Funding Opportunities
RESEARCH GRANTS
LETTER OF INQUIRY
• Deadlines in January, May, and August
• 4-6 week response time
• Internal review for fit with current interest and funding criteria
FULL PROPOSAL
• External review
• Internal review
PI RESPONSE TO REVIEWS
• Internal review
• Board of Trustees meeting in March, June, and October
Funding Opportunities
SCHOLARS PROGRAM
CAREER DEVELOPMENT
• Within 7 years of PhD
• Career-ladder position
• Nominated by an institution
AWARDS
• $350K for five years
• Research plan / mentoring
APPLICATIONS
• Guidelines published in December
• Application deadline in July
Funding Opportunities
DISTINGUISHED FELLOWS
LETTERS OF INQUIRY
• Deadlines in January, May, and August
• Proposal must fit current research interest
FELLOWSHIPS TO BRIDGE RESEARCH AND POLICY/PRACTICE
• Influential researchers, policymakers, practitioners
• Mid-career: 8-20 years in role
AWARDS
• 6-month to 2-year fellowship; $175,000 award
• Researchers: immersed in policy/practice setting
• Policymakers and practitioners: immersed in research setting
Questions?