CEEH Energy System Optimisation
Kenneth Karlsson
Risø DTU ,
National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy
Technical University of Denmark
[email protected]
Optimisation loop
Externalities
Emissions
Energy System model
Economic development etc.
Centre for Energy, Environment and Health
Energy System Modelling – 2005 to 2050
System prices
electricity
district heat
hydrogen
biofuels
Energy demand:
Macro
economic
factors
Transport energy
Electricity
Heat
Fuels
Energy supply:
Power plants
Boilers
Energy storage
Hydrogen production
Bio-fuels
- from all sectors
Energy demand
System optimization
by minimising total
system costs
Fuel prices
Hardware prices
Externalities
Costs of health related
externalities
Costs of other externalities
(climate change, nature etc.)
Balmorel
NO - N
• Geography
– Countries
– regions
– areas
• Time resolution
SE-N
NO-S
– e.g. 5 years step simulation
– 52 weeks with 5 time steps
S E -M
• Endogenous investments
–
–
–
–
power/heating plants
heat storage
electrolysers, heat pumps
transmission lines …etc.
FI
NO -M
SE-S
D K-W
D K -E
Balmorel
• Linear optimisation model of the energy system
• Minimising total yearly costs in the system
• Constraints – balance equations, like:
– power balance (at any time step production has to equal demand)
– heat balance
– hydrogen balance etc.
and limitations, like:
– resource limits (e.g. max available biomass resource)
Fuel costs, investment costs, taxes, externalities
Energy production
Electricity
Car
Bus
people
Train
Air
Transport Sea
District heat
goods
Hydrogen
Bio-fuels
Trucks
Vans
Train
Sea
Air
Household
Appliances
Heat loss
Heat supply
Industry,
trade and
service
Appliances
Heat loss
Heat supply
Proces energy
Air emissions and waste products
Linear optimisation models
• Will always choose the cheapest solution
• If no restrictions/constraints, there will be one dominating
technology
• Example of change in costs for power producing
technologies when including externalities –
using www.recabs.org
www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshore
wind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
www.recabs.org
Biomass
Offshore
wind
Gas CC CHP
Coal CHP
Some Balmorel results
CO2-price = 300 DKK/t ~ 40 €/t
Some Balmorel results
CO2-price = 150 DKK/t ~ 20 €/t
Some Balmorel results
Tank you for your attention
Seeking Collaboration Partners
Within CEEH
Outside CEEH
Global energy and
emission
scenarios
Global/regional
air pollution
modelling
Regional/local
air pollution
modelling
regional
energy/emission
scenarios
“Optimal” future
energy system
Effects in
Denmark
Global scenarios
IPCC
Balmorel
(www.balmorel.com)
NO - N
Boundary
conditions
SE-N
FI
NO -M
NO-S
S E -M
SE-S
D K-W
D K -E