Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation.
comments questions: [email protected]
papers,etc: www.culturalcognition.net
www.culturalcognition.net
Cultural Cognition and the Science
Communication Problem
Dan M. Kahan
Yale Law School
& many many others!
Research Supported by:
National Science Foundation, SES-0242106, -0621840 & -0922714
Woodrow Wilson Int’l Center for Scholars
Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund at Yale Law School
The science communication problem
I. A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
Unbiased Evidence Assessment
New
Evidence
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Confirmation Bias
New
Evidence
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
The science communication problem
I.
A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Mary Douglas’s “Group-Grid” Worldview Scheme
Risk Perception Key:
Low Risk
High Risk
Hierarchy
Climate Change
Environmental
Risk
Nuclear Power
Abortion
Compulsory psychiatric treatment
Guns/Gun Control
HPV Vaccination
Individualism
Communitarianism
Climate Change
Environmental
Risk
Nuclear Power
Abortion
Compulsory psychiatriac treatment
Guns/Gun Control
HPV Vaccination
Egalitarianism
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of Nanotechnology
Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
100%
100%
iliar with Nano
Beneifts > Risks
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o
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ano
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xperiment Condition
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Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic,
Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of
0%
25%
0%
Communitarian
Nanotechnology
Risks and
Benefits,
Nature Nanotechnology,
4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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iment Condition
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100%
iliar with Nano
77%100%
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100%
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ano
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Benefits
Perceive
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63%
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ition
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23%* 23%*
100% 100%
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xperiment Condition
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Experiment Condition
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of
0%
0% Risks
Nanotechnology
and Benefits,
Nature Nanotechnology,
4(2), 87-91 (2009)
No Info.
Info.-Exposed
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Info.
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iar with Nano
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n
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100%
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Individualist
Egalitarian
Communitarian
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23%*
Info.-Exposed
Information-Exposed
Experiment Condition
* Change across conditions significant at p < 0.05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Nanotechnology Risk Perception: Study Design
Sample
1,850 adults drawn from nationally representative on-line panel
Measures




Worldviews
Self-reported familiarity with nanotechnology
Nanotechnology risks v. benefits
Other risk perceptions
Experimental Manipulation
No information vs. balanced information (between-subject design)
Benefits
Perceive
> Risks
Beneifts
>Beneifts
Risks
>Beneifts
Risks > Risks
61%
85%
Familiar with Nano
Information
effect:
familiarity
Unfamiliar
with Nano
100%
75%
50%
61%
85%
Familiar with Nano
Unfamiliar with Nano
75%
25%
50%
61%
100%
Risks > Risks
Beneifts >Beneifts
Risks >Beneifts
77%
100%
75%
100%
75%
63%
77%
100%
75%
50%
63%
Hierarchical Individualist
*
61%
Information effect: culture
Hierarchical Individualist
*
61%
86%
77%25%
75%
50%
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86%
23% *
61%
Egalitarian Communitarian
Unfamiliar with Nano
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86%* 23% *
50%
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25%
25%
0%
0%
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No Information
Information-Exposed
Information
Information-Exposed
100%
Egalitarian
Communitarian
Experimental Condition
Experimental Condition
63%
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o
*
Change
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no
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Information
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75%
100%
Egalitarian Communitarian
Experimental Condition
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63%
61%
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o
across conditions significant
at p <0%
0.05
86%*
25%
Communitarian
no 0% * Change
Source:
Kahan
,
Braman,
Slovic,
Gastil
&
Cohen
Cultural
Cognition
of
Individualist
23%*
50%
77%
No Information 4(2), 87-91
Information-Exposed
No75%
Information Risks Information-Exposed
Nanotechnology
and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology,
(2009)
Beneifts > Risks
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o
Experimental Condition
Experimental Condition
Egalitarian
63%
61%
0%
* Change
across conditions significant
at p < 0.05
No
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Info.-Exposed
-Exposed
no
25%
Communitarian
Source:
Kahan
,
Braman,
Slovic,
Gastil
& Cohen Cultural
Cognition of 23%*
No
Information
Information-Exposed
ation-Exposed
50%
ition
Experiment
Condition
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Egalitarian
0%
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Info.
Info.-Exposed
-Exposed
Communitarian
25%
Source: Kahan , Braman,
Gastil & Cohen Cultural
Cognition of 23%*
No Slovic,
Information
Information-Exposed
ation-Exposed
ition
Condition
Nanotechnology Risks andExperiment
Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology,
4(2), 87-91 (2009)
-Exposed
0%
No Info.
Info.-Exposed
Beneifts > Risks
61%
85%
Information
effect:
Unfamiliar
withfamiliarity
Nano
100%
75%
50%
Benefits
Perceive
> Risks
Beneifts
>Beneifts
Risks
> Risks
Familiar with Nano
61%
85%
75%
50%
25%
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Risks >Beneifts
Risks > Risks
77%
100%
75%
100%
75%
63%
77%
100%
75%
50%
Familiar with Nano
63%
Unfamiliar with Nano
77%75%
50%
25%
61%
100%
63%
Hierarchical Individualist
*
61%
Information effect: culture
86%
Hierarchical Individualist
*
61%
86%
23% *
61%
Egalitarian Communitarian
Beneifts > Risks
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Beneifts > Risks
Unfamiliar with NanoHierarchical
no 25%
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25%
50%
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0%
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Information
Information-Exposed
100%
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Experimental Condition
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Communitarian
Experimental
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Experimental Condition
63%
Egalitarian
61%
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o
across conditions
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at p <0%
0.05
86%*
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25%
Communitarian
Source:
Kahan
,
Braman,
Slovic,
Gastil
&
Cohen
Cultural
Cognition
of
Individualist
50%
23%*
77%Nanotechnology
No Information 4(2), 87-91
Information-Exposed
No75%
Information RisksInformation-Exposed
and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology,
(2009)
Experimental Condition
Experimental Condition
Egalitarian
63%
61%
0%
* Change
across conditions significant
at p < 0.05
No
Info.
Info.-Exposed
.-Exposed
25%
Communitarian
no
Source:
Kahan
,
Braman,
Slovic,
Gastil
& Cohen Cultural
Cognition of 23%*
No
Information
Information-Exposed
ation-Exposed
50%
dition Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits,
Experiment
Condition
Nature Nanotechnology,
4(2), 87-91 (2009)
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
0%
No
Info.
Info.-Exposed
-Exposed
Communitarian
25%
Source:
Kahan , Braman,
Gastil & Cohen Cultural
Cognition of 23%*
NoSlovic,
Information
Information-Exposed
ation-Exposed
dition
Condition
Nanotechnology Risks and Experiment
Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology,
4(2), 87-91 (2009)
-Exposed
0%
No Info.
Info.-Exposed
Information effect: culture
Information effect: familiarity
100%
100%
o
*
86%
63%
61%
Unfamiliar with Nano
50%
Beneifts > Risks
77%75%
75%
25%
61%
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25%
Egalitarian Communitarian
100%
0%
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Information
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Benefits
Perceive
> Risks
Beneifts
> Risks
85%
Hierarchical Individualist
Familiar with Nano
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0%
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No Information
Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
63%
61%
* Change across conditions
significant at p < 0.05
no
86%*
Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
50%
Egalitarian
Communitarian
25%
Source:
Kahan , Braman, Slovic,
Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of 23%*
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
-Exposed
0%
No Info.
Info.-Exposed
4.00
High Risk
Familiar with Nanotechnology
Unfamiliar with Nanotechnology
Moderate
3.00
Risk
Slight
Risk
2.00
Almost No
Risk 1.00
Internet
Mad Cow
Disease
Nuclear
Power
Genetically Private Gun
Modified
Ownership
Foods
n = 1,820 to 1,830. Risk variables are 4-pt measures of “risk to people in American Society” posed by
indicated risk. Differences between group means all significant at p ≤ .01.
Information effect: culture
Information effect: familiarity
100%
100%
o
*
86%
63%
61%
Unfamiliar with Nano
50%
Beneifts > Risks
77%75%
75%
25%
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50%
23% *
25%
Egalitarian Communitarian
100%
0%
77% No75%
Information
Beneifts > Risks
Benefits
Perceive
> Risks
Beneifts
> Risks
85%
Hierarchical Individualist
Familiar with Nano
Hierarchical
0%
Individualist
No Information
Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
63%
61%
* Change across conditions
significant at p < 0.05
no
86%*
Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
50%
Egalitarian
Communitarian
25%
Source:
Kahan , Braman, Slovic,
Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of 23%*
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
-Exposed
0%
No Info.
Info.-Exposed
Increase in Predicted Likelihood of SelfReported Familiarity with Nanotechnology
25%
20%
19.5%
Hierarch
15%
10%
5.8%
5%
3.6%
2.2%
0.9%
Egalitarian
0%
-0.5%
-0.9%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-2.6%
-5%
1st
1
Communitarian
40th
20th
2
3
4
60th
5Percentile
6
80th
7
8
Figure S1
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
99th
9
10
Individualistic
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
The science communication problem
I.
A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Cultural Cognition
Cultural
Worldview
Scientific
Consensus
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus.
J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74 (2011).
Climate Change
randomly assign 1
High Risk
(science conclusive)
Low Risk
(science inconclusive)
“It is now beyond reasonable scientific
dispute that human activity is causing
‘global warming’ and other dangerous
forms of climate change. Over the past
century, atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide (CO2)—called a “greenhouse gas”
because of its contribution to trapping heat—
has increased to historically unprecedented
levels. Scientific authorities at all major
universities agree that the source of this
increase is human industrial activity. They
agree too that higher C02 levels are
responsible for steady rises in air and ocean
temperatures over that period, particularly in
the last decade. This change is resulting in a
host of negative consequences: the melting of
polar ice caps and resulting increases in sea
levels and risks of catastrophic flooding;
intense and long-term droughts in many parts
of the world; and a rising incidence of
destructive cyclones and hurricanes in
others.”
“Judged by conventional scientific
standards, it is premature to conclude that
human
C02
emissions—so-called
‘greenhouse
gasses’—cause
global
warming. For example, global temperatures
have not risen since 1998, despite significant
increases in C02 during that period. In
addition, rather than shrinking everywhere,
glaciers are actually growing in some parts of
the world, and the amount of ice surrounding
Antarctica is at the highest level since
measurements began 30 years ago. . . .
Scientists who predict global warming
despite these facts are relying entirely on
computer models. Those models extrapolate
from observed atmospheric conditions
existing in the past. The idea that those same
models will accurately predict temperature in
a world with a very different conditions—
including one with substantially increased
CO2 in the atmosphere—is based on
unproven assumptions, not scientific
evidence. . . .”
Robert Linden
Position: Professor of Meteorology,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Education: Ph.D., Harvard University
Memberships:
 American Meteorological Society
 National Academy of Sciences
Robert Linden
Position: Professor of Meteorology,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Education: Ph.D., Harvard University
Memberships:
 American Meteorological Society
 National Academy of Sciences


American Association of Physics
National Academy of Sciences
Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes
High Risk
(not safe)
“Using deep geologic isolation to dispose of
radioactive wastes from nuclear power
plants would put human health and the
environment at risk. The concept seems
simple: contain the wastes in underground
bedrock isolated from humans and the
biosphere. The problem in practice is that
there is no way to assure that the geologic
conditions relied upon to contain the wastes
won’t change over time. Nor is there any way
to assure the human materials used to
transport wastes to the site, or to contain
them inside of the isolation facilities, won’t
break down, releasing radioactivity into the
environment. . . . These are the sorts of
lessons one learns from the complex
problems that have plagued safety
engineering for the space shuttle, but here the
costs of failure are simply too high.
randomly assign 1
Low Risk
(safe)
“Radioactive wastes from nuclear power
plants can be disposed of without danger
to the public or the environment through
deep geologic isolation. In this method,
radioactive wastes are stored deep
underground in bedrock, and isolated from
the biosphere for many thousands of years.
Natural bedrock isolation has safely
contained the radioactive products generated
by spontaneous nuclear fission reactions in
Oklo, Africa, for some 2 billion years. Manmade geologic isolation facilities reinforce
this level of protection through the use of
sealed containers made of materials known to
resist corrosion and decay. This design
philosophy, known as ‘defense in depth,’
makes long-term disposal safe, effective, and
economically feasible.”
Oliver Roberts
Position: Professor of Nuclear Engineering,
University of California, Berkeley
Education: Ph.D., Princeton University
Memberships:
 American Association of Physics
 National Academy of Sciences
Oliver Roberts
Position: Professor of Nuclear Engineering,
University of California, Berkeley
Education: Ph.D., Princeton University
Memberships:
 American Association of Physics
 National Academy of Sciences
Concealed Carry Laws
High Risk
(Increase crime)
Low Risk
(Decrease Crime)
“So-called ‘concealed carry’ laws increase
violent crime. The claim that allowing
people to carry concealed handguns reduces
crime is not only contrary to common-sense,
but also unsupported by the evidence. . . .
Looking at data from 1977 to 2005, the 22
states that prohibited carrying handguns in
public went from having the highest rates of
rape and property offenses to having the
lowest rates of those crimes. . . .To put an
economic price tag on the issue, I estimate
that the cost of “concealed carry laws” is
around $500 million a year in the U.S.”
James Williams
Position: Professor of Criminology, Stanford
University
Education: Ph.D., Yale University
Memberships:
 American Society of Criminologists
 National Academy of Sciences
“Overall, ‘concealed carry’ laws decrease
violent crime. The reason is simple: potential
criminals are less likely to engage in violent
assaults or robberies if they think their
victims, or others in a position to give aid to
those persons, might be carrying
weapons. . . . Based on data from 1977 to
2005, I estimate that states without such laws,
as a group, would have avoided 1,570
murders; 4,177 rapes; and 60,000 aggravated
assaults per year if they had they made it
legal for law-abiding citizens to carry
concealed handguns. Economically speaking,
James Williams
the annual gain to the U.S. from allowing
Position: Professor of Criminology, Stanford
concealed handguns is at least $6.214
University
billion.”
Education: Ph.D., Yale University
Memberships:
 American Society of Criminologists
 National Academy of Sciences
Cultural Cognition Worldviews
Hierarchy
Risk Perception Key:
Low Risk
High Risk
Climate Change
Nuclear Power
Guns/Gun Control
Individualism
Communitarianism
Climate Change
Nuclear Power
Guns/Gun Control
Egalitarianism
Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on ...
Egalitarian Communitarian
More Likely to Agree
Hierarchical Individualist
More Likely to Agree
Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response
-80%
60% 40%
-60%
-40%
20%
0
-20%
0%
20%
20%
40% 60%
40%
60%
80%
54%
Climate
Climate Change
Change
72%
Low Risk
High Risk
22%
Nuclear
Power
Nuclear Waste
31%
58%
Gun Control
n Control
61%
Low Risk
High Risk
ar Waste
Concealed
Carry
N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology
variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence
Cultural Cognition
Cultural
Worldview
Scientific
Consensus
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Most agree
Most disagree
Divided
4x
8x
4x
“What is the position of expert scientists?”
How much more likely to believe
Most agree
5x
Egalitarian
Hierarchical
Egalitarian
Hierarchical
Communitarian
Individualist
Communitarian
Individualist
Most
disagree
6x
Egalitarian
Hierarchical
Egalitarian
Hierarchical
Egalitarian
Hierarchical
Communitarian
Individualist
Individualist
Divided
2x
Communitarian Communitarian
Individualist
Most agree
Most
4x agree
4x
57%
Most
disagree
Most
8x
8x
Most disagree
agree
4x
4x
Most agree
4x
Global
temperatures
are Most agree
12x
agree
2x
Divided
Divided
4x
4x
Most disagree
8x
8x
Most disagree Most disagree
8x
increasing.
3x
Most disagree
2x
4x
DividedDivided
4x
Divided
4x
Divided
=
=
Most agree
Most
5x agree
5x
Most
disagree
Most
6x
6x
Most disagree
agree
5x
5x
Most
5x
6x
Human
activity
is agree
causing Most agree
agree
5x
Divided
2x
2x
Most disagree
6x
6x
Most disagree Most disagree
6x
globalDivided
warming.
Most disagree
4x
2x
DividedDivided
2x
Divided
2x
Divided
=
=
Most agree
Most
2x agree
2x
Radioactive
wastes
from
nuclear
Most disagree
Most
2x
2x
Most disagree
agree
2x
Most agree
2x
Most agree
2x
power Divided
can beMost
safely
disposedMost
of disagree
Divided
= disagree
=
=
=
Most
2x
2x
disagree
2x
in deep underground storageDividedDivided
=
=
=
Divided
=
==
facilities.
Most agree
Most agree
Most
disagree
Most
4x disagree
Most
agree
Most agree
Permitting
adults
Mostwithout
agree
criminal
records
ordisagree
histories of
Divided
Divided
= disagree
Most
Most disagree
Most
4x
mental illnessDivided
to carry
DividedDivided=
concealed handguns in public
decreases violent crime.
5x
4x=
=
4x
5x
=
4x
==
5x
=
5x
5x
=
=
The science communication problem
I.
A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
The “Public Irrationality Thesis”
1. Science illiteracy
2. “Bounded rationality”
1+2+3=
The “public irrationality thesis” (PIT)
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
1.00
0.75
Greater 1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-0.75
perceived risk (z-score)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
Lesser -1.00
-1.00
low
high
high
high low
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality
1.00
0.75
Greater 1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-0.75
perceived risk (z-score)
0.50
0.75
High Sci. litearcy/System 2
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
Low Sci. litearcy/System 1
Lesser -1.00
-1.00
low
high
high
high low
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
perceived risk (z-score)
1.00
Greater Risk
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
actual variance
actual variance
0.00
low vs. high sci
-0.25
-0.50
low vs. high sci
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-1.00
-1.00
Lesser Risk
-1.00
0.75
0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
PIT prediction
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
-0.25
-0.25
-0.25
0.25
PIT prediction
low
30b
30b
-0.75
point 1
Science literacy
-0.75
30t
30t
high
-1.00
point 2
low
point 1
-1.00
point 1
high
30b
30b
30t
30t
Numeracy
point 2
point 2
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
1.00
Greater 1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
1.00 0.75
perceived risk (z-score)
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25
PIT prediction
0.00
Low Sci lit/numeracy
0.00
Actual variance
High Sci lit/numeracy
-0.25-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-0.75
-0.75
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
-1.00
low
low
low
high
high
Scilit/num Scale high
high
high low
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
Cultural Variance...
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
Greater 1.00
Egalitarian Communitarian
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
perceived risk (z-score)
0.50
0.75
0.75 1.00 0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.00
Low Sci lit/numeracy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
High Sci lit/numeracy
-0.25
-0.25-0.25-0.25
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Hierarchical Individualist
-1.00
low
low
low
low
high
high
high
high
high
high low
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute
1.00
1.00
1.00
Greater 1.00
Egalitarian Communitarian
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
0.25
perceived risk (z-score)
0.75
0.75 1.00 0.75
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25
Low Sci lit/numeracy
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
High Sci lit/numeracy
-0.25
-0.25-0.25-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
-1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Hierarchical Individualist
low
low
low
low
high
high
high
high
low
high
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge Networks, Feb. 2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Greater 1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00 0.75
0.75
0.75
0.50 0.75
0.50 0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25 0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25-0.25
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50 -0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75 -0.75
-0.75 -1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
perceived risk (z-score)
0.75
High Sci lit/numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci/lit numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci lit/numeracy
Low Sci lit/num.
Hierarc Individ
High Sci lit/numeracy
High Sci lit/numeracy
Hierarch Individ
low
high
low
high
low
high
high
low
high
high low
sci_num
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge
Networks,
Feb.
2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
sci_num
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
-1.00
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num...
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Greater 1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00 0.75
0.75
0.75
0.50 0.75
0.50 0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25 0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25-0.25
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50 -0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75 -0.75
-0.75 -1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
perceived risk (z-score)
0.75
High Sci lit/numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci/lit numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci lit/numeracy
Low Sci lit/num.
Hierarc Individ
High Sci lit/numeracy
High Sci lit/numeracy
Hierarch Individ
low
high
low
high
low
high
high
low
high
high low
sci_num
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge
Networks,
Feb.
2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
sci_num
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
-1.00
point 1
point 2
“How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health,
safety, or prosperity?”
1.00
POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.00
-0.25
-0.50
-0.75
-1.00
Greater 1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
1.00 0.75
0.75
0.75
0.50 0.75
0.50 0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25 0.25
0.25
0.25
0.00 0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.25
-0.25-0.25
-0.25
-0.25
-0.50
-0.50
-0.50 -0.50
-0.50
-0.75
-0.75
-0.75 -0.75
-0.75 -1.00
-1.00
-1.00
Lesser -1.00
perceived risk (z-score)
0.75
High Sci lit/numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci/lit numeracy
Egal Comm
Low Sci lit/numeracy
Low Sci lit/num.
Hierarc Individ
High Sci lit/numeracy
High Sci lit/numeracy
Hierarch Individ
low
high
low
high
low
high
high
low
high
high low
sci_num
U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Knowledge
Networks,
Feb.
2010. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”)
sci_num
to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence.
-1.00
point 1
point 2
Cultural Cognition
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
System 1 and
System 2
Revised
Factual
Belief
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
The science communication problem
I.
A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
4. Experimental response items
A. Evidence Skepticism Module
13. Convincing. We would like to know what you think of the Nature Science
study, excerpts of which you just read. In your view, how convincing was the
study on a scale of 0-10 with 0 meaning “completely unconvincing” to 10
meaning “completely convincing”?
Please indicate how strongly you disagree or agree with the following statements
concerning the study. [Strongly disagree, moderately disagree, slightly disagree,
slightly agree, moderately agree, strongly agree]
14.
15.
16.
Biased. The scientists who did the study were biased.
Computers. Computer models like those relied on in the study are not a
reliable basis for predicting the impact of CO2 on the climate.
Moredata. More studies must be done before policymakers rely on the
findings of the Nature Science study.
study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)
Cultural Cognition Worldviews
Hierarchy
Risk Perception Key
Low Risk
High Risk
Climate change
Individualism
Communitarianism
Climate change
Egalitarianism
z_Study dismiss 2
1.20
1.00
Dismiss
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
1.20
-0.60
1.00
-0.80
0.80
-1.00
0.60
-1.20
0.40
0.20
Credit
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.20
0.60
-0.20
1.00
0.40
-0.40
0.80
0.20
-0.60
0.60
0.00
-0.80
0.40
-0.20
-1.00
0.20
-0.40
-1.20
0.00
1.20
-0.60
-0.20
1.00
-0.80
-0.40
0.80
-1.00
-0.60
0.60
-1.20
-0.80
0.40
-1.00
0.20
-1.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
Study dismissiveness
1.20 1.20
1.00 1.00
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
-0.20
-0.20
control
-0.40 -0.40
-0.60 -0.60
-0.80 -0.80
-1.00
-1.00
control
control
-1.20 -1.20
control
control
control
1.20
HI
1.00
EC
0.80
0.60
0.40
HI
HI
0.20
EC
EC
Hierarch
Individ
0.00
HI
HI
HI
-0.20
pollution
geoengineering
Egal
EC Commun
EC EC
-0.40
1.20
-0.60
1.00
-0.80
0.80
-1.00
pollution geoengineering
geoengineering
pollution
0.60
-1.20
HI
0.40
HI
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
control
geoengineering
control
pollution
geoengineering
controlpollution
pollution
geoengineering
EC
0.20
EC
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
pollution
geoengineering
-1.00
pollution
geoengineering
-1.20
control
pollution
geoengineering
HI
EC
HI
EC
Control Condition
z_Study dismiss 2
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Dismiss 1.20
0.80
0.00
0.60
-0.20
1.00
0.40
-0.40
0.80
0.20
-0.60
0.60
0.00
-0.80
0.40
-0.20
-1.00
0.20
-0.40
-1.20
0.00
1.20
-0.60
-0.20
1.00
-0.80
-0.40
0.80
-1.00
-0.60
0.60
-1.20
-0.80
0.40
-1.00
0.20
Credit -1.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
Study dismissiveness
1.20 1.20
1.00 1.00
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
-0.20
-0.20
control
-0.40 -0.40
-0.60 -0.60
-0.80 -0.80
-1.00
-1.00
control
-1.20 -1.20
control
control
1.20
HI
1.00
EC
0.80
0.60
0.40
HI
0.20
EC
Hierarch
Individ
0.00
HI
HI
HI
-0.20
pollution
geoengineering
Egal
EC Commun
EC EC
-0.40
1.20
-0.60
1.00
-0.80
0.80
-1.00
pollution
geoengineering
0.60
-1.20
HI
0.40
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
control
geoengineering
control
pollution
geoengineering
controlpollution
pollution
geoengineering
EC
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
pollution
geoengineering
-1.00
-1.20
control
pollution
geoengineering
HI
EC
HI
EC
Anti-pollution Condition
Geoengineering Condition
4. Experimental response items
A. Evidence Skepticism Module
13. Convincing. We would like to know what you think of the Nature Science
study, excerpts of which you just read. In your view, how convincing was the
study on a scale of 0-10 with 0 meaning “completely unconvincing” to 10
meaning “completely convincing”?
Please indicate how strongly you disagree or agree with the following statements
concerning the study. [Strongly disagree, moderately disagree, slightly disagree,
slightly agree, moderately agree, strongly agree]
14.
15.
16.
Biased. The scientists who did the study were biased.
Computers. Computer models like those relied on in the study are not a
reliable basis for predicting the impact of CO2 on the climate.
Moredata. More studies must be done before policymakers rely on the
findings of the Nature Science study.
study_dismiss scale (α = 0.85)
Anti-pollution Condition
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Geoengineering Condition
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
z_Study dismiss 2
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Dismiss 1.20
0.80
0.00
0.60
-0.20
1.00
0.40
-0.40
0.80
0.20
-0.60
0.60
0.00
-0.80
0.40
-0.20
-1.00
0.20
-0.40
-1.20
0.00
1.20
-0.60
-0.20
1.00
-0.80
-0.40
0.80
-1.00
-0.60
0.60
-1.20
-0.80
0.40
-1.00
0.20
Credit -1.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
Study dismissiveness
1.20 1.20
1.00 1.00
0.80 0.80
0.60 0.60
0.40 0.40
0.20 0.20
0.00 0.00
-0.20
-0.20
control
-0.40 -0.40
-0.60 -0.60
-0.80 -0.80
-1.00
-1.00
control
-1.20 -1.20
control
control
1.20
HI
1.00
EC
0.80
0.60
0.40
HI
0.20
EC
Hierarch
Individ
0.00
HI
HI
HI
-0.20
pollution
geoengineering
Egal
EC Commun
EC EC
-0.40
1.20
-0.60
1.00
-0.80
0.80
-1.00
pollution
geoengineering
0.60
-1.20
HI
0.40
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
control
geoengineering
control
pollution
geoengineering
controlpollution
pollution
geoengineering
EC
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
pollution
geoengineering
-1.00
-1.20
control
pollution
geoengineering
HI
EC
HI
EC
Study dismissiveness
HI
HI
EC
z_Study dismiss 2
1.20
1.00
1.20
0.80
1.00
Dismiss 0.60
1.20
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.60
0.20
0.80
0.40
0.00
0.60
0.20
-0.20
0.40
0.00
-0.40
0.20
-0.20
-0.60
0.00
-0.40
1.20
-0.80
-0.20
-0.60
1.00
-1.00
-0.40
-0.80
0.80
-1.20
-0.60
-1.00
0.60
-0.80
-1.20
0.40
-1.00
0.20
Credit -1.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
-1.20
EC
Hierarch
Individ
HI
Egal
EC Commun
control
pollution
geoengineering
control
pollution
geoengineering
HI
control
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
control
pollution
geoengineering
EC
Study dismissiveness
Dismiss 1.20
z_Study dismiss 2
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
-0.80
-1.00
Credit -1.20
Hierarch
Individ
HI
Egal
EC Commun
control
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
Polarization
z_Study dismiss 2
more
2.5
polarization
2.0
1.5
less
polarization 1.0
control
anti-pollution
pollution
geoengineering
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
Two Channel Communication Strategy
Communication
channel 1:
content
channel 2:
meaning
New
Evidence
Cultural
Worldview
Prior
Factual
Belief
prior odds
Revised
Factual
Belief
X
likelihood ratio
=
posterior odds
The science communication problem
I.
A simple model: Risk and cultural polarization
II. Some evidence: (Two) mechanisms of cultural cognition
III. Climate change
A. “Scientific consensus”
B. Thinking “fast” or “slow”
IV. Solution: two channel communication
Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment
Go to www.culturalcognition.net!