Module 1.2
Socio economic drivers
Annual meeting 2006
INEA
UC3M
RIKS
RIKS
Istituto Nazionale di Economia Agraria
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Research Institute for Knowledge Systems
DeSurvey Module 1.2
Objectives of Module 1.2
 Socio-economic drivers of desertification;
 Development of a land use model:
 Estimate socio-economic trends and
associated land claims;
 Dynamic processes: changes in demography,
sectoral economic activity, employment levels,
land uses (time dependant forecasts ≈ 30 yrs);
 Spatially explicit analysis/representation;
 At different embedded spatial entities: EU,
National (country), Regional (NUTS2/NUTS3),
Local (grid based entities ≤ 1km2);
 Represent the interlinked processes at the
different spatial entities.
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Model structure: integrating 3 sub models
Database development
Model development
Economic
growth model
WP 2.1
‘Geographical’
Feedbacks
Constraints
Pressures
Externalities
Cellular
Automata
Land use
model WP 2.3
Regional and national trends in
Employment, population and
agricultural utilized area
Model development
Delineation of agricultural land
Agricultural
land use
WP 2.2
Database development
Model development
integration
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Land use at time T
& CA
Land
useRules
at time T+1
Model structure: economic trends to land use
Suitability
&
Regional and
national trends
modelled by WP 1.2.1
CA Loop
WP 1.2.3
This is a pivoting variable in
linking the Bio-physical and the
Socio-economic aspects of the
Zoning
problem at stake
&
Accessibility
&
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Model structure: specification of agricultural
land
Specification of
Agriculture:
Socio-economic
land uses
WP 1.2.2
Provided by WP
1.2.3
?
Specification of natural
land
Scope for further
integration
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Fully specified land
use
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Database development
 Sources:
 Farm Accountancy Data Network
 International databases: EuroStat, OECD
 National databases: Spain, Italy , Portugal
 Now available:
 Macro-population trends and related
agricultural labour data, including:
Work units (paid & unpaid)
Utilized area
National labour accounts
 Land productivity 1980-2002 by year, region,
farm type, and farm size
•
•
•
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Model development: Economic growth
 Economy develops towards equilibrium state
 Based on established and robust MOISEES model
 Extended to include tourism sector
 Extended to include construction sector
 Reduced on the basis of relevance
 Flexible region definitions: National, NUTS 2/3, Aggregates
 Introduces EU / national level policy variables in the Integrated
Assessment Model
 Tax system, CAP, etc.
 Output to Cellular Automata model
 Agricultural Utilized Area per region
 Employment in main economic sectors
 Consistent scenario on population development
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Model development: Agricultural land use
 Multinomial model of farm level decisions
 Dynamic model based on time series of FADN data
 Integrate two types of input:
 Demographic & organizational: prices, subsidies etc.
 Site characteristics: topography, soil, climate etc.
 Output is farm practice:
 Type of production? (crop/cattle)
 Management practices?
 Estimated at farm level but transposed to be applied at as
1 km cell based model
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Model development: Cellular Automata
 The main factor
determining locations of
land use change is the
neighbourhood of all
location
 The neighbourhood now
extends to the whole
map, integrating spatial
interactions over
different scales
 The density of activities
is determined by the
value of a location
 Allocation of activity
(people, jobs) instead of
land use (area)
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Preliminary results, population Portugal
DATA 1990
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Error
null
model
DATA 2000
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Error
model
Model 2000
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Theoretical background in deliverables
 Andea Fais & Iraj Namdarian:
 Literature review of impact of socio-economic
factors on land use dynamics
 Ricardo Mora & Carlo San Juan
 Literature review on agricultural economic and
demographic factors influencing land use
dynamics
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Current priorities
 Progress according to plan
 But there are some immediate issues:
 What will be the decision variable for the
agricultural land use model?
 How do we anticipate further model
integrations (1.1.-1.6)?
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