Euro Exchange Rates: What Can Be Expected in Terms of Volatility?

,N+, NWV,+5WAv W5AWANA,
#,+A,A 6 ,W5
,NW `Lh!?} @Tih , L bb%2f
,hL , U@?}i +@|itG
`@| @? i , TiU|i_ ? Aih4t Lu VL*@|*|)q
wjNANi N|AN
#W 6W,5wc 5 #,W E6W
** h}|t hitihi_
L T@h| Lu |t T@Tih 4@) Mi hiThL_Ui_ ? @?) uLh4
|L| Tih4ttL? Lu |i @|Lh
U
bbb
wiL?Lh L|?L
h?|i_ ? W|@*) ? a?i bbb
,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i
@_@ 6itL*@?@
WDffS 5@? #L4i?UL E6W
W|@*)
,hL i U@?}i h@|itG @| U@? Mi i TiU|i_
? |ih4t Lu L*@|*|)q
wiL?Lh L|?L
,hLTi@? N?iht|) W?t|||i
@)c bbb
Devwudfw
Wklv sdshu glvfxvvhv vrph ri wkh lvvxhv uhodwhg wr wkh ghwhupl0
qdwlrq ri wkh ixwxuh ehkdylru ri hxur h{fkdqjh udwhv1 Lw frqvlghuv
wkh lpsdfw ri Hxurshdq0zlgh surgxfwlylw| dqg yhorflw| glvwxu0
edqfhv rq csruwirolr* glyhuvlfdwlrq lq Hxursh/ xqghu d vlqjoh fxu0
uhqf|1 Wkh qhz fxuuhqf| pd| eh ohvv yrodwloh wkdq wkh suh0h{lvwlqj
Hxurshdq fxuuhqflhv jlyhq wkdw wkh djjuhjdwh JGS jurzwk pd|
eh pruh vwdeoh dqg pruh fruuhodwhg zlwk JGS jurzwk lq wkh XV
dqg Mdsdq1 Krzhyhu/ dowkrxjk surgxfwlylw| wuhqgv duh qrw olnho|
wr fkdqjh gudpdwlfdoo|/ wkh ehkdylru ri yhorflw| fdq fkdqjh vxe0
vwdqwldoo|/ gxulqj ru diwhu wkh fkdqjh lq uhjlph1 Wkh h{whqw wr
zklfk wklv zloo eh uhohydqw zloo ghshqg rq wkh srolf| fkrlfhv ri
wkh HFE/ vlqfh wkhuh duh vrph srolf| uxohv/ vxfk dv qrplqdo lq0
frph wdujhwlqj/ pruh dssursuldwh wkdq rwkhuv iru lqvxodwlqj wkh
hfrqrp| iurp yhorflw| glvwxuedqfhv1
L dp judwhixo wr p| vxshuylvru Plfkdho
Duwlv dqg wr Pdwwkhz Fdq}rqhul iru xvhixo
frpphqwv dqg dgylfh1 Doo uhpdlqlqj plvwdnhv duh plqh1

W?|hL_U|L?
?4Mih Lu _gihi?| t|_it @i @?@*)3i_ |i tti Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu
|i ihLc |i ?i*) MLh? ,hLTi@? t?}*i Uhhi?U) W? |i tLh| |ih4
| t *!i*) |@| TLh|uL*L @_t|4i?|t ** Mh?} tL4i ?t|@M*|) |L |i
t)t|i4 OLiihc @?L|ih 4TLh|@?| ^it|L? t i|ihc ? |i *L?}ih
|ih4c ihL i U@?}i h@|it ** ThLi 4Lhi Lh *itt L*@|*i |@? |i i U@?}i h@|it Lu |i Thii t|?} ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uit AL @?tih |t
^it|L? @h|? Ebb. M*_t @? @h}4i?| L? |i M@tt |@| |i ,N
@hi@ ** Mi *@h}ih @?_ *itt LTi? |@? @?) ?__@* 4i4Mih t|@|ic @?_
UL?U*_it |@| |i M}}ih |i N?L?c |i 4Lhi t|@M*i |i ihL ** Mi )
?it|}@|?} |i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? t3i< @?_ L*@|*|)c @h|? €?_t @
4Tt@Ti_ hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) @?_ UL?|h)
t3i Ai hi@tL? t |@| ih) *@h}i UL?|hitc U @hi hi*@|i*) *itt
LTi?c @i uiih ?Ui?|it |L ti i U@?}i h@|i TL*U) t|h@|i}U@**) |L
t|@M*3i |i iUL?L4)
L?|h@_U|?} |t @h}4i?|c Liihc ML| ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic L
L? @?_ t@?6ihh)Ebb. @?_ Li?Ebb. h@tic ? |ih |iLhi|U@*
4L_i*tc |i TLttM*|) |@| @ TL*U) Lu Mi?}? ?i}*iU| 4@) Mi |i U@ti
Lu @ hti ? i U@?}i h@|i ?t|@M*|) ? ,hLTic @u|ih ,N @ttL? @?_
Ah|i*MLL4 Ebb.c L? |i L|ih @?_c TL?| |L |i u@U| |@| @ Mi?}?
?i}*iU| @|||_i L? |i T@h| Lu |i ,hLTi@? 4L?i|@h) @|Lh|) 4@) ?L|
Mi TLttM*i Ai) @h}i |@| |i ?Uih|@?|it |@| ** Mi u@Ui_ M) |i
,hLTi@? i?|h@* @?! E, @hi *!i*) |L uLhUi |i *@||ih |L @_LT| _t
Uhi|L?@h) TL*Uitc hi*)?} L? @hLt iUL?L4U ?_U@|Lhtc L?i Lu U
4@) Mi |i 4@h!i| @*i Lu |i ihLc @? ?_U@|Lh |@| t }*) tM*i
|L |i TM*U W? @__|L? |L |t @h}4i?|c | U@? @*tL Mi @__i_ |@|
Thitthit uhL4 4i4Mih t|@|it uLh i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) 4i@thit 4@)
@*tL @htic u |ih UL4Ti||i?itt t|@h|t ihL_?} ? tiih@* LUU@tL?t
|hL}L| t|Lh)c *@h}i @?_ Tihtt|i?| U@?}it ? i U@?}i h@|it @i
Mii? @UUL4T@?i_ M) t|hL?} TL*|U@* Thitthit uLh ThL|iU|L?t4 ? UL?
|hit Lti UL4Ti||i TLt|L? @t Mii? ?i}@|i*) @giU|i_ EUk??L?

EbbS `| TL*U) ULLh_?@|L? Mi|ii? |i , @?_ |i 6,#c @t
tL? @?_ Ah|i*MLL4 Ebb. it|4@|i |@| @ TL*U) |L@h_t i U@?}i h@|i
t|@M*|) ** ?L| *i@_ |L t}?€U@?| U@?}it ? ?@|L? @h@M*|) OL
iihc |L| tU ULLh_?@|L?c ?Uhi@ti_ L*@|*|) @}@?t| |i _L**@h
4@) T| Thitthi L? |i , |L ?|ihi?i @*L?i ? |i uLhi}? i U@?}i
4@h!i|c TLttM*) @4Tih?} |t Uhi_M*|) uLh €}|?} ?@|L? At TLt
tM*|) 4@!it | 4TLh|@?| |L ?_iht|@?_ ?_ih @| UhU4t|@?Uit |i
ihL U@? Mh?} 4Lhi L*@|*|) ?|L |i ?|ih?@|L?@* 4L?i|@h) t)t|i4
** |i ihL L*@|*|) t|_it 4i?|L?i_ @MLi uLUt 4@?*) L? L
|i hitTL?ti?itt Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i |L tLU!t 4@) U@?}i @u|ih |t
?|hL_U|L?c T@)?} *||*i @||i?|L? L? |i LUUhhi?Ui Lu |i tLU!t |i4
ti*it W?U*_?} 4Lhi _Lt)?Uh@|U iUL?L4it ? |i 4L?i|@h) ?L? **
Mi t4*@h |L _ihtu)?} @ TLh|uL*L @?_ ** |t _4?t |i tTiU€U
ht! @ttLU@|i_ | |i iUL?L4) |@| ttit |i ?i Uhhi?U) VL*@|*|)
4@) _4?tc MiU@ti ,hL*@?_<t Mt?itt U)U*i ** Mi *itt L*@|*i @?_
4Lhi ULhhi*@|i_ | |i U)U*it ? |i L|ih 4@Lh iUL?L4it At @
_iU*?i ? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) 4@) ?L| Mi @||hM|i_ |L |i ,<t
@U|L?t Tih ti W? u@U|c |i , tL*_ |@!i |t @tTiU| ?|L UL?t_
ih@|L? i? _i€??} |t TL*Uitc t?Ui tL4i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) ULUit
4@) Mi 4Lhi @TThLTh@|i |@? L|iht uLh ?t*@|?} |i iUL?L4) uhL4
_it|@M*3?} ,N_i _t|hM@?Uit
At T@Tih UL?t_iht |i 4T@U| Lu ,hLTi@?_i ThL_U||) @?_
i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit L? TLh|uL*L _iht€U@|L?< ? ,hLTic ?_ih @ t?
}*i Uhhi?U) AL L|ih hiUi?| t|_it |@| T@) 4Lhi @||i?|L? |L |i Mi
@Lh Lu ,hL3L?i _t|hM@?Uit @hi +UU @?_ Wt@h_ EbbH @?_ ‚i?@tt)
"‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbH Ai €ht| t|_) ?it|}@|it |i igiU|t Lu 4L?i
|@h) ?L? L? i U@?}i h@|i @h@M*|) t?} @ |hiiUL?|h)c |hii}LL_c
4 PfNlqqrq
dujxhv wkdw _h{fkdqjh udwh yduldelolw| kdv d surshuw| wkdw surprwhv d
jhqhudo ulvh ri wudgh eduulhuv% dqg lv uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh lqfuhdvhg xvh ri txrwdv dqg
rwkhu pdunhw0vkdulqj vfkhphv vlqfh wkh plg 4<:3*v1 Uhfhqw frqwulexwlrqv vkrzlqj wkdw
fxuuhqf| lqvwdelolw| fdq kdyh qhjdwlyh hhfwv rq frpshwlwlyhqhvv lqfoxgh Gl{lw+4<;<,
dqg Nuxjpdq+4<;<d/4<;<e,1 Lq wkhvh sdshuv/ xqfhuwdlqw| lv frvwo| ehfdxvh lw ohdgv wr
ghod|v lq _uhdo fkdqjhv lq wkh zruog hfrqrp| wkdw vkrxog eh phw e| lqyhvwphqw dqg
glvlqyhvwphqw% +Nuxjpdq +4<;<e,/ s19<,1
2
u@U|LhtTiU€U 4L_i* Lu |h@_i | @}i h}_|) W| tLt |@| |i hi*
@|i @h@M*|) Lu |i ihL i U@?}i h@|it 4@) _iTi?_ L? |i hi*@|i
t3it @?_ tTiU@*3@|L? T@||ih?t Lu ,N UL?|hit @?_ |i hi*@|i 4
TLh|@?Ui Lu _gihi?| tLU!t Ai t|_) _ii*LTi_ ? |i Thiti?| T@Tihc
Liihc |hit |L |@!i ?|L @UUL?| @** |i _gihi?| tLU!t t4*|@?iLt*)
@?_ |L UL?t_ih |i TLttM*|) Lu @ _iUhi@ti_ T@||ih? Lu tTiU@*3@|L? ?
,hLTic Lhc @| *i@t| Lu 4Lhi Mt?itt U)U*i ULhhi*@|L?
Ai tiUL?_ t|_)c M) ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbHc t @? i4
ThU@* @?@*)tt ihi t|LU@t|U t4*@|L?t @hi TihuLh4i_ L? @ t4T*i
|hii UL?|h) 4@UhLiUL?L4U 4L_i* Lu |i N?|i_ 5|@|itc Bih4@?) @?_
6h@?Uic ? Lh_ih |L UL4T@hi |i @h@M*|) Lu @hLt 4@UhLiUL?L4U @h
@M*itc ?U*_?} |i |h@?t@|*@?|U i U@?}i h@|it Aih t4*@|L?t tL
|@| ,N UL*_ hi_Ui |i @h@M*|) Lu |i |h@?t@|*@?|U i U@?}i h@|ic
M| ? |ih t|_) |i @t)44i|hit ? ,hLTi @hi 4?43i_ M) hi_U?}
|i ihL 3L?i |L Bih4@?) @?_ 6h@?Ui t |i @|Lht i T*@?c i |i?_?}
|t @?@*)tt |L L|ih ,hLTi@? UL?|hit L*_ ThL_i @ 4Lhi i @t
|i t|LU@t|U hiThiti?|@|L? Lu ,hLTi@?_i tLhUit Lu tLU!tc M|
L*_ @i |i _h@M@U! Lu 4Ti_?} |i ?|ihThi|@|L? Lu hit*|t Ai
@?@*)tt _ii*LTi_ ? |t T@Tihc M*| L? @ t4T*ih 4L_i*c i @U|*) |hit
|L ?it|}@|i L L*@|*|) 4@) _iTi?_ L? |i 4i4MihtT Lu |i Uh
hi?U) @hi@c t4*|@?iLt*) 4@!?} |i TL?| |@| |i Uhi@|L? Lu ,N
_Lit ?L| i?@?Ui |i t3i< Lu @?) i t|?} iUL?L4) M| ?t|i@_ UL4
M?it _gihi?| iUL?L4it | _gihi?| U@h@U|iht|Ut |L M@U! @ t?}*i
Uhhi?U) ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚i @?_ LL? EbbH<t hit*|t @hi @*tL ih) 4U
_iTi?_i?| L? |i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) hi@U|L? u?U|L?t ULti? uLh ,hLTi
@?_ |i N5c *i |i Thiti?| t|_) |hit |L UL?|hL* uLh |L _gihi?|
TL*U) h*it
Ai 4L_i* ti_ ? |t T@Tih t M@ti_ L? |@| Lu @?3L?ih @?_
#i**@t EbbD Ai *@||ih t @ @t?_@?Ui 4L_i*c ihi UL?t4iht
@hi t@hiL*_iht @?_ __i |ih ?UL4i Mi|ii? UL?t4T|L?c 4L?i)c
ML?_tc @?_ i^|) t@hit BLL_t @hi TihuiU| tMt|||it @?_ |ihiuLhic @
hi*@|L? @?_ @ ^@?||) |iLh) Lu 4L?i) hi*@|L? i4ih}ic _i?|u)?}
|i tLU!t |@| ** @giU| |i ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|i W? T@h|U*@hc u
ML| Ui?|h@* M@?!t ?L*i_ |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4ic |i L*@|*|) Lu |i
i U@?}i h@|i Mi|ii? |L Uhhi?Uit ** _iTi?_ L? |i Mi@Lh Lu |i
ThL_U||) tLU!t ? |i tt?} UL?|hit Ai @|Lht i T*Lhi |i
|iLhi|U@* 4T*U@|L?t Lu |i 4L_i* uLh @ N?L? UL4Tht?} Bih4@?)c
6h@?Uic W|@*) @?_ |i Nk At T@Tih<t ihtL? Lu |i 4L_i* |hit |L
@__hitt |i u@U| |@| |i |h@_|L?@* i4ThU@* |it|t Lu *L?}h? @i u@*i_ |L €?_ UL?|i}h@|L? Mi|ii? |i ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|i @?_
hi*@|i ThUit Aihi t tL4i i_i?Ui |@| |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t
ULt|t 4@) Mi |i U@ti Lu |i hiiU|L? Lu @ UL?|i}h@|?} hi*@|L? ?
|iti |it|t 3i?4@?EbHe L|*?it tL4i Lu |i igiU|t Lu |h@?t@U|L?t
ULt|t L? ThU@t?} TLih T@h|) @?_ *@|ih t|_it tU @t #@|)@?
@?_ TTi?}ihEbbf @?_ U@i*c LM@) @?_ ii*Ebb. @i |hi_ |L
_ii*LT |i iUL?L4i|hU 4T*U@|L?t Lu |Lti igiU|t #i |L _U*|it
? |i 4i@thi4i?| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc @ M@t< t U@ti_ M) |ih
L4ttL? ? it|4@|L? Lu |i @h@M*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i
__|L?@**)c |i Thiti?| t|_) i |i?_t |i i4ThU@* @?@*)tt ?
@?3L?ih i| @*EbbDc M) UL4M??} 4Lt| ,N 4i4Miht E@** @T@h| uhL4
i*}4c |i w i4MLh}c 5T@? @?_ BhiiUi2 ? tiih@* TLttM*i ,Nt<
@?_ M) ?|hL_U?} @ *L?}ih t@4T*i TihL_ Nt?} ^@h|ih*) B# _@|@
Mi|ii? b.ebbDc | UL?U*_it |@| uLh 4Lt| UL?|hit Lh }hLTt Lu
UL?|hit 4i4MihtT i?@?Uit |i t|@M*|) Lu |i ihL @}@?t| ML| |i
_L**@h @?_ |i )i?c i UiT| uLh |i 4i4MihtT Lu 5i_i? @?_ #i?4@h!
U t uL?_ |L @i @ TLt|i 4T@U| L? |i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL)i?
i U@?}i h@|i ih@**c |i hit*|t LM|@?i_ tL |@| |i ?i Uhhi?U)
4@) i** Mi *itt L*@|*i |@? |i _i|tUi4@h!c U t |i ?@|h@*
Mi?U4@h! |L ti @t |i _i|tUi4@h! @t |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?U) |
|i 4Lt| Thi_L4?@?| hL*i ? W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui At hiiU|t |i
u@U| |@| @}}hi}@|i ,hL3L?i B# }hL| 4@) Mi 4Lhi t|@M*i @?_ 4Lhi
ULhhi*@|i_ | B# }hL| ? |i N5 @?_ a@T@? 6?@**)c |t T@Tih
@__hittit |i i?_L}i?i|) ThLM*i4t hi*i@?| |L |iti hit*|t *|L}
ThL_U||) |hi?_t @hi ?L| *!i*) |L U@?}i ^U!*) @u|ih |i uLh4@|L? Lu
,Nc L|ih U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i iUL?L4) tU @t |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i)c
51
5 Vxlwdeoh
txduwhuo| gdwd frxog qrw eh rewdlqhg iru wkhvh frxqwulhv 0 vhh Dsshqgl{
e
|@| 4@) Mi ?L*i_ ? |i _i|ih4?@|L? Lu i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|itc
4@) Mi @*|ihi_ tMt|@?|@**) @?_ 4Lhi ^U!*) t t|@|i_ ? |i UL?U*
tL?tc |i i}| Lu |t u@U|Lh ** _iTi?_ L? |i TL*U) ULUit Lu |i
,
Ai hi4@?_ih Lu |t T@Tih t Lh}@?3i_ ? @?L|ih t tiU|L?t
5iU|L? |L Thiti?|t |i 4L_i*c *i tiU|L? |hii _tUttit |i igiU|t
Lu L|T| _t|hM@?Uit L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|)c ?_ih ?L4?@* ?
UL4i |@h}i|t 5iU|L? uLh _itUhMit |i 4i|L_L*L}) uLh @}}hi}@|?}
L|T| |hi?_t ? ,N @?_ |it|?} |i igiU|t Lu @ UL?|h)<t Lh @ }hLT
Lu UL?|hit< 4i4MihtT ? |i 4L?i|@h) ?L? @?_ |i tMti^i?| tiU
|L? Thiti?|t @?_ _tUttit |i i4ThU@* hit*|t W? tiU|L? t hit*|t
@hi _ihi_ uLh |i U@ti ihi Ui?|h@* M@?!t |@h}i| 4L?i) }hL| ?
t|i@_ Lu ?L4?@* ?UL4i @?_ |ih hLMt|?itt t @?@*)3i_ 5iU|L? tii?
UL?U*_it
2
Ai L_i*
L?t_ih @ Lh*_ iUL?L4) UL4Thti_ Lu |hii UL?|hitG |i N5c Bih
4@?) @?_ 6h@?Ui At ** Mi tUi?| |L _ihi hit*|t U U@?
i@t*) Mi }i?ih@*3i_ W? |t iUL?L4)c i@U TihL_c @? ?€?|i*) *i_
hiThiti?|@|i UL?t4ih 4@ 43it i TiU|i_ |*|) L| G
L| ' .|
"k
[
'|
q
3|
ES l
E
ihi .| t |i i TiU|@|L?t LTih@|Lh EUL?t4iht 4@ 43i i TiU|i_
|*|) MiU@ti |i) @hi ?Uih|@? @ML| |i t|hi@4 Lu u|hi i@h??}tc
q t @ TLt|i _tUL?| u@U|Lh @?_ S ' k S n k S n k& S& t |i
R|*|) i}|i_ UL?t4T|L? M@t!i| Lu |i hiThiti?|@|i UL?t4ihc
U ?U*_it |i UL?t4T|L? Lu }LL_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) ES c ?
Uhhi?U) ES @?_ Uhhi?U) & ES& Ai u?U|L? E t UL?|?Lt*)
_gihi?|@M*i @?_ t|hU|*) ?Uhi@t?} ? @** @h}4i?|t @?_ |i M@t!i|t< Lu
D
}LL_t @hi tMt|||it uLh L?i @?L|ihc | 4@h}?@* h@|it Lu tMt|||L?
}i? M) |i h@|Lt k *k c uLh @** c c 9' 6?@**)c ?L|Ui |@|
tMtUhT|t _i?L|i |i Uhhi?Uit Lu ?LUic ' _c }c s ( ' _c }c s ( & '
_c }c sc @?_ |4i hitTiU|i*)G
_ ' _L**@h
} ' _i|tUi4@h!
s ' uhi?Uuh@?U
| |i Mi}???} Lu TihL_ UL?t4iht hiUii ?UL4i @?_ |h@_i @tti|t
u|ih |t €?@?U@* i U@?}ic |i) @hi @M*i |L M) i@U }LL_ t?} U@tc
@?_ |i TihUi?|@}i # Lu TihL_<t ?L4?@* ?UL4i ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U)
Ai hi4@??} TLh|L? Lu |@| ?UL4i U@? L?*) Mi ti_ uLh UL?t4T
|L? u | t UL?ih|i_ ?|L 4L?i) ? |i ?i | €?@?U@* i U@?}i At
4i@?t |@|c @| i@U |4i c UL?t4iht u@Ui @t?_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t
Lu |i uLh4G
 n # R t R S
;
E2
Oihi R t |i ThUi *ii* Lu }LL_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) ( t t uh@U
|L? Lu hi@* ?UL4i ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) c Lih U |i ?__@* @t
U*@4t( @?_  t |i @4L?| Lu Uhhi?U) ?L4?@* U@t M@*@?Uit i*_
@| TihL_ #h?} |i €?@?U@* i U@?}ic |L}i|ih | U@t M@*@?Uitc
UL?t4iht U@? @*tL @U^hi L?i TihL_ ML?_t ?LUi_ ? i@U Uhhi?U)
c; U ** T@) TLt|i ?L4?@* ?|ihit| @t M@*@?Uit
@?_ ML?_t ?LUi_ ? L?i Uhhi?U) @hi U@h@U|ih3i_ M) L Ui@T |
t |L 4@!i |h@?t@U|L?t ? |@| Uhhi?U)<t uLhi}? i U@?}i 4@h!i| Wu
| t hi*@|i*) i Ti?ti |ihi t @ |@ < uLh 4@!?} ThU@tit Lu @tti|t
_i?L4?@|i_ ? |@| Uhhi?U) Wu | t hi*@|i*) Ui@T |ihi t @ *^
_|) Thi44< wi| _i?L|i |i |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t ? |i 4@h!i|
 n uLh Uhhi?U) Ai?c
** }i |i |@ <% *^_|)Thi44< uLh
 n 6 Wklv
ihdwxuh zloo doorz wkh yhorflw| wr glhu iurp 41 Lw zdv lqwurgxfhg lqwr wkh
olwhudwxuh e| Zrrgirug+4<<4,1
S
M)?} @tti|t _i?L4?@|i_ ? Uhhi?U) c t?} i@*| _i?L4?@|i_ ?
Uhhi?U) At ThL_it @ ih) t4T*i @) Lu ?|hL_U?} |h@?t@U|L?t
ULt|t *?!i_ | |i *^_|) U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i _gihi?| 4@h!i|t
4Lhi _i|@*i_ |hi@|4i?| Lu |Lti U@? Mi uL?_ ? +i) Ebb. Bi?
|i @tt4T|L?t t|@|i_ @MLic |i ThU@ti Lu @tti|t t tMiU| |L |i
uL**L?} M_}i| UL?t|h@?|c i Thitti_ ? ?|t Lu Uhhi?U) G
&
d` . o [ n e
d` . o [ n ne d`& .& o [& f
E
ihi
[  n [  n [&  n &
&
@?_ ihi e
@?_ e @hi |i i U@?}i h@|it ti_ |L UL?ih| ?|t Lu
Uhhi?U) @?_ ?|t Lu Uhhi?U) &c hitTiU|i*)c ?|L ?|t Lu Uhhi?U) ` t|@?_t uLh |i i@*| U@hhi_ |hL} |L TihL_ r €?@?U@* i U@?}i
@?_ . c uLh TihL_ r i Ti?_|hi ? €?@?U@* @tti|tc uLh @** c tU
|@|G
` E
3
` E
3
`& E&
3

n R

n R

n R&
3
 t 3
n E n  t 3
n E n  t& 3
n E n &
3
3
 3
3
n A R
 3
3
3
3
n A R
 & 3
 S 3
 S 3
3
n A& R&
 S& 3
3
. '  n . '  n .& ' & n &
6Lh @** c A @hi *4T t4 ?L4?@* |h@?tuiht }h@?|i_ EU*@4i_ M) |i
}Lih?4i?| 5?Ui |i U@t?@_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t E2 @?_ |i €?@?U@*
M_}i| UL?t|h@?| E ** Mi M?_?}e c |i TihL_ | €ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t
E6t uLh |i 4@ 43@|L? Lu |i UL?t4ih<t |*|) tMiU| |L |iti
|L UL?t|h@?|t |@!i |i uL**L?} uLh4GD
7 Lqwhuhvw
udwhv duh srvlwlyh dqg xwlolw| lv lqfuhdvlqj lq doo dujxphqwv dqg ghshqgv
rqo| rq frqvxpswlrq1
8 Dsshqgl{ < vkrzv wkh h{whqvlyh yhuvlrq ri wkh exgjhw frqvwudlqw/ iurp zklfk lw
lv hdvlhu wr rewdlq wkh uvw rughu frqglwlrqv1
.
>| R| E n | f
k
E| ES| E| >| e
| R| E n | ES| f ; 9' k
E| %
&
>|n  n |n

'f
q.|
E n | >|  n |
E| %
&

>|n e

n
|n
|n
' f ; 9' q.|
E n | >| e|  n |
ihi >| t |i t@_L ThUi @ttLU@|i_ | |i M_}i| UL?t|h@?| @?_
ES| _i?L|it |i _ih@|i Lu ES| | hitTiU| |L S| W? @| hi}@h_t 4L?i|@h) @?_ €tU@* TL*Uitc | ** Mi @tt4i_ |@|
i@U €tU@* @|Lh|) ti|t |i *ii* Lu |i Th4@h) _i€U|c A| c *i |i
?_iTi?_i?| Ui?|h@* M@?!t _iU_i L 4U ** Mi 4L?i|3i_ BLih?
4i?| ML?_ ttit @hi |i? i?_L}i?Lt*) _i|ih4?i_ M) |i }Lih?4i?|t<
M_}i| UL?t|h@?|tG
r
' |r
|r n |

3
r
n |
 E n o|  n A|
3
3
;
r
ihi |r t |i 4L?i) tTT*) ? Uhhi?U) c ihi@t |
t |i tTT*)
Lu ML?_t ?LUi_ ? Uhhi?U) c uLh @** W? @__|L?c ? |t Lh*_
iUL?L4)c 4@h!i| U*i@h?} UL?_|L?t @hi }i? M)G
| ' |r
Ee
r
| ' |
t| ' S|
H
;
#,6WWAWG
UL4Ti||i i^*Mh4c ihi @** Uhhi?Uit
@hi
q
r @*i_c ? |t
iUL?L4)c t _i€?i_ @t @ ti^i?Ui Lu ThUit R| c | c e|
c @?_ @**LU@
|'f
|L?t iS| c | c | j|'f c uLh @** c c tU |@|G E U@t? @_@?Ui UL?
t|h@?|t _itUhMi_ M) i^@|L? E2 @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|) E|t uL**Lt
uhL4 |i @tt4T|L?t L? |i |*|) u?U|L? @?_ ?L4?@* ?|ihit| h@|it(
E @** 6t @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|)( E |i UL?t4iht< M_}i|
UL?t|h@?|t E @hi t@|t€i_ | i^@*|)( E |i }Lih4i?|t< M_}i|
UL?t|h@?|t @hi t@|t€i_( E 4@h!i| U*i@h?} UL?_|L?t @hi t@|t€i_( @?_c
€?@**)c E |i |h@?tiht@*|) UL?_|L? @?_ |i ?LL?3}@4i UL?_|L?
@hi ML| t@|t€i_
"
"
L|Ui |@| |i u@U| |@| @** 6t L*_ | i^@*|) EMiU@ti
@** Uhhi?Uit @hi @tt4i_ |L Mi @*i_ 4T*it @? @}4i?|i_ <
hi*@|L?tT ? |t i^*Mh4G
#
$
E n | R|
e
R
R
E
n
k

n
|
|
|
|
' |
ED
/ e
| '
k
k
R| k  n |
Aihi @hi |L tLhUit Lu Tihtt|i?| _i@|L?t uhL4 |i |h@_|L?@* hi*@|L? ? |t i ThittL? ?i t |i i t|i?Ui Lu |h@?t@U|L? ULt|tc
|i L|ih t |i 4TihuiU| _i}hii Lu tMt|||@M*|) Mi|ii? |i }LL_t
#i?L|i |i _i@|L? Lu ThUit @?_ |i i U@?}i h@|i c uhL4 M)
x
| G
x
|  n | k
 n | k
At @**Lt uLh @ t4T*€i_ ihtL? ? ?@|h@* *L}@h|4t Lu |i ThiLt
hi*@|L?G
*? e
| ' *? R| *? R| n *? x|
| *? x
| * S n E| | c S ' *? k *? k
b
ES
Oi?Ui |i @h@M*|) Lu |i _i@|L?t uhL4 U@? Mi @||hM|i_ |L
|i @h@M*|) Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t W? @__|L?c UL?t_ih |i uL**L?}
_i€?|L? Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i Mi|ii? Uhhi?U) @?_
Uhhi?U) G
2 2 E.
j Ee .| *? e|n . | d *? e|n o
5Mt|||?} i^@|L? ES ?|L |t _i€?|L?c | t TLttM*i |L _itUhMi
|i L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i ? |ih4t Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu ThUit @?_
|h@?t@U|L? ULt|tG
2 2 EH
j Ee ' .|
| 7ER|n | 7ER|n n | 7Ex|n ihi | 7E%|n E*? %|n *? .| d*? %|n oc uLh @?) @h@M*i %
Bi? |@| ? |t i^*Mh4 @** U@t?@_@?Ui UL?t|h@?|t hiThi
ti?|i_ M) i^@|L? E2 L*_ | i^@*|) @?_ 4@h!i|t U*i@h Ei S| ' t| c
; | t TLttM*i |L _i?|u) @ ^@?||) |iLh) Lu 4L?i) hi*@|L? ? |t

' T| t |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i) G
iUL?L4)c ihic
 #|
| ' R| S| #| R| t| ' E #| R| t|
Eb
6Lh |i i^*Mh4 ?|ihit| h@|it |i i ThittL? MiUL4it 4Lhi UL4
T*U@|i_ @t | ** _iTi?_ L? |i UL@h@?Ui Mi|ii? ?@|L? @?_ |i
?|ih|i4TLh@* h@|i Lu tMt|||L? ? UL?t4T|L?G
%
&

ES|n R|
' q.|
E n | ES| R|n
, U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) @?_ ThL_U|
|) |hi?_t
Ai €ht| t|iT ** Mi |L _i|ih4?i L tLU!t ** @giU| |t iUL?L4) @|
|4i |n 6L**L?} @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@tEbbDc |i t|LU@t|U Mi@Lh
Lu L|T| @?_ i*LU|) ** Mi _itUhMi_ M)G
f
t|n ' t| 0|n
Ef
T|n ' T| v|n
E
ihi 0|n c v|n @hi i L}i?Lt h@?_L4 tLU!t @giU|?} L|T| @?_ i
*LU|) hitTiU|i*)c ?ULhhi*@|i_ Lih |4i @?_ _i?|U@**) _t|hM|i_c
tU |@|G
. d*? 0|n o ' . d*? v|n o ' f
Ai hi*i@?Ui Lu |iti @tt4T|L?t ** Mi _tUtti_ ? |i i4ThU@*
@TT*U@|L? Ai ?i | t|iT ** Mi |L _i|ih4?i L TL*U) ULUit **
@giU| |i Mi@Lh Lu ThUit t @ Mi?U4@h!c | ** Mi tiu* |L @tt4i
€ht| |@| |i i?|h@* @?!t ? @** UL?|hit |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4i wi|
& Mi |i ?L4?@* ?UL4i |@h}i| ? UL?|h) c tU |@|G
W
R|n t|n
' &
R| t|
W
E2
Ai?c tMt|||?} |i Mi@Lh Lu L|T| }i? M) i^@|L? Ef ?|L
|i ?L4?@* ?UL4i |@h}i|?} h*i )i*_t |i uL**L?} hi*@|L? Mi|ii?
?@|L? @?_ ThL_U||) tLU!tG
&
R|n
' R|
0|n
W
E
) h|?} |t i ThittL? ? *L}@h|4t | t TLttM*i |L tL |@|c ?_ih
|t TL*U) hi}4ic ?i | TihL_ L|T| tLU!t E@?_ L?*) |iti |h@?t*@|i
?|L ?i | TihL_ ThUi thThtit<c _i€?i_ @t *? R|n .| d*? R|n oG
.| d*? R|n o ' *? & *? R|
W
*? R|n .| d*? R|n o ' *? 0|n

Ee
At i ThittL? U@? ?L Mi ti_ |L i Thitt |i @h@?Ui Lu |i i U@?}i
h@|i ? |ih4t Lu |i @h@?Uit @?_ UL@h@?Uit Lu |i i L}i?Lt tLU!t
||?} iUL?L4it @?_ 5Mt|||?} |t ?|L i^@|L? EH )i*_tG
j2 Ee ' T @o|n d*? 0|n *? 0|n o n
k
nT @o|n *? x
|
l
k
n 2J|n E*? 0|n *? 0|n c *? x
|
l
ED
W| 4}| Mi hi@tL?@M*i |L i TiU| |i UL@h@?Ui |ih4 |L Mi TLt|ic
t?Ui |ihi t i4ThU@* i_i?Ui Lu @ ?i}@|i hi*@|L?tT Mi|ii? |h@?t
@U|L?t ULt|t @?_ L*4iS AihiuLhic L4||?} _i@|L?t uhL4 uhL4 |i @?@*)tt 4@) ThL_Ui @ _L?@h_ M@t ? |i it|4@|it uLh
L*@|*|) #i?L|i jh 2 Ee |i M@ti_< L*@|*|) it|4@|iG
jh 2 Ee ' T @o|n d*? 0|n *? 0|n o
ES
Wu |i M@t hit*|?} uhL4 |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t t @TThL 4@|i*) |i t@4i uLh @** ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc | tL*_ ?L| t}?€U@?|*)
@giU| |i h@?!?} Lu |Lti Uhhi?Uit ? |ih4t Lu L*@|*|) W? |i uL*
*L?} tiU|L?tc |t M@ti_< L*@|*|) it|4@|i ** Mi ti_ |L @ttitt |i
igiU|t Lu ,N L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|)c Mi@h?} ? 4?_ |t TLttM*i
*4|@|L?t
e
,giU|t Lu ,N L? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*
|)
W? |t tiU|L?c | t @tt4i_ |@|c @| |i Mi}???} Lu TihL_ | n c
,hLTi@? UL?|hit uLh4 @ L?i|@h) N?L? ,hLTi@? L|T| t }i?
M) |i t4 Lu |i L|T| Lu i@U Lu |i 4i4Mih UL?|hitG
9 Kduwpdqq +4<<9,1
2
te|n t}|n n ts |n ' t}| 0}|n n ts | 0s |n ' te| 0e|n
ihi
E.
0e|n ' }| 0}|n n s | 0s |n
t}|
ts |
}| ( s | t}| n ts |
t}| n ts |
EH
4||?} |i igiU| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc @UULh_?} |L i ThittL? ESc
|i it|4@|i uLh |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|ic ?_ih ?L4?@* ?UL4i
|@h}i|?}c t }i? M)G
jh 2 Ee_e ' T @o|n
% #
0e|n
*?
0_|n
$&
Eb
ihi |i tTihtUhT|t @?_ tMtUhT|t _ @?_ e _i?L|i _L**@h @?_ ihL
hitTiU|i*) @?_ ihi |i ,hLTi@? L|T| tLU! t @ u?U|L? Lu |i
L|T| tLU!t Lu i@U Lu |i ,hL3L?i iUL?L4itc @t _i€?i_ M) i^@|L?
EH L?ti^i?|*)c |i M}}ih |i ihL @hi@c |i 4Lhi UL4TLt|i |i
tLU! |ih4 ** Mi W| t @*tL i@t) |L tii |@| |i _L**@h UL*_ Mi hiT*@Ui_
M) @?) L|ih |h_ Uhhi?U)c tU @t |i )i? Ai it|4@|i Lu |i ihL
)i? i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) |ihiuLhi U@? Mi h||i? @tG
jh Ee ' T @o|n
2
+e
% #
0e|n
*?
0+|n
$&
AL LM|@? tL4i ?t}| ?|L i|ih |i ihL tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_
|L Mi 4Lhi Lh *itt L*@|*i |@? |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc @?3L?ih @?_
#i**@t EbbDc @tt4?} |@| L*_tc ti tU @? it|4@|i |L @?@*)3i
|i L*@|*|) Lu |i _L**@hihL i U@?}i h@|it uLh @ N?L? UL4Tht?}
Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic |i Nk @?_ W|@*) Ai) it|4@|i |i L|T| tLU!t uLh
|iti UL?|hit @?_ uLh |i N5 t?} 5L*L hit_@*t U@*U*@|i_ M) B*U!
@?_ +L}Lg Ebb W? @?3L?ih<t @?_ #i**@t<t 4L_i* }LL_t @hi ?LUi_
? |i Uhhi?U) Lu |i ThL_Uihc U uLh |i i4ThU@* it|4@|it t |i
tiUL?_ Mit| @tt4T|L? t?Ui |ihi t ?L t|@M*i _@|@ L? |i Uhhi?U)

?LUi Lu |h@_i. Aih t@4T*i t bSfbbfc @??@* LMtih@|L?t @?_
|ih hit*|t uLh |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t Lu i U@?}i h@|i Thi_U|L? ihhLht
@hi t44@h3i_ ? |i |@M*i Mi*LGH
A@Mi* G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu , U@?}i +@|i
VL*@|*|) | 5L*L +it_@*t #@|@
jh Ee_ ff
bSf bbf
Ceo6@?+
8 o@?Se
Lg
U|@,+
.oJRe
2Hf
2bD
222
H2
Hb
@?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbD
Aiti hit*|t t}}it| |@| |i _L**@hihL i U@?}i h@|it tL*_
?L| Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi 4Lhi L*@|*i |@? |i _i|tUi4@h!c Lh @?) Lu |i
L|ih Uhhi?Uit tti_ M) |i UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i @?@*)tt Aiti
hit*|t _L ?L| @i |L ULhhitTL?_ |L hi@* _@|@c t?Uic @T@h| uhL4 |i M@t
_i?|€i_ i@h*ihc ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i L4ttL? Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc
|iti @hi |i Thi_U|L?t Lu @ 4L_i* M*| ?_ih |i @tt4T|L? |@|
@** Ui?|h@* M@?!t |@h}i| ?L4?@* ?UL4i W| t ?|ihit|?}c ?iih|i*ittc
|L UL4T@hi |i4 | |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L?t Lu *L}U@?}it Lu _L**@h
i U@?}i h@|it |L tii L |i) 44Uc @| *i@t|c |i h@?!?} Lu L*@|*|itGb
: Wkh HFX Lqvwlwxwh surgxfhv vrph vwdwlvwlfv rq wkh shufhqwdjh ri h{sruwv lqyrlfhg
lq wkh surgxfhuv fxuuhqf|/ exw wklv w|sh ri gdwd lv qrw ghwdlohg hqrxjk wr eh xvhg lq
wklv nlqg ri h{huflvh1 Wkh gdwd/ krzhyhu fruurerudwh wkh lghd wkdw wkh dvvxpswlrq
wkdw h{sruwv duh lqyrlfhg lq wkh surgxfhuv fxuuhqf| lv d vhfrqg ehvw dvvxpswlrq +HFX
Lqvwlwxwh/ 4<<8,1
; Hvwlpdwhg uhjuhvvlrqv dqg wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ duh uhsruwhg lq Dsshqgl{ 41
< Wkh yrodwlolw| phdvxuh uhsruwhg khuh lv wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh fkdqjhv lq
wkh orjdulwkp ri dqqxdo groodu h{fkdqjh udwhv phdvxuhg dv wkh dyhudjh ri wkh txdwhuo|
gdwd uhsruwhg e| RHFG1
e
A@M*i 2G 5|@?_@h_ #i@|L?t Lu wL}@?}it
Lu #L**@h , U@?}i +@|it
jEe_ ff
Ceo6@?+
8 o@?Se
Lg
U|@,+
.oJRe
Sf bf
Sf .
.e bf
bHf
fSf
HDf
fDf
Def
ebD
bD
S.
2ef
D.
2
SS
,# _@|@ uLh ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|it
`i U@? ihu) |@| |i h@?!?} Lu |i L*@|*|it uLh |i TihL_ bSf
bbf t t4*@hc i UiT| uLh W|@*) OLiihc L?i Lu |i @tt4T|L?t Lu |i
4L_i* t @ L@|?} i U@?}i h@|i hi}4i W? u@U|c uLh |i TLt|hi||L?
`LL_t TihL_ |i h@?!?} Lu |i 4L_i* MiUL4it UL4T@|M*i | |i
|hi h@?!?} iih|i*ittc | 4@) Mi Thiuih@M*i |L it|4@|i ThL_U|
|) |hi?_t | _@|@ L?*) hiuihh?} |L |t TihL_ N?uLh|?@|i*)c |
|i t@4i _@|@ti|c it|4@|L?t @hi *4|i_ |L . LMtih@|L?t tiU
L?_ _h@M@U! Lu |i _@|@ti| ti_ M) @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t EbbD uLh
|t @?@*)tt t |i u@U| |@| | U@? L?*) @**L uLh @ |it| L? |i igiU|t
Lu @__?} |i Nk @?_ W|@*) @t i |h@ ,N 4i4Mihtc *i | tL*_ Mi
?|ihit|?} |L @?@*)3i |i igiU|t Lu @__?} @*tL |i hi4@??} ,N UL?
|hitc ? T@h|U*@h |Lti UL?|hit ? |i TihTih)< OLiihc 5L*L
+it_@*t _@|@M@tit @hi L?*) @@*@M*i uLh @ ih) hit|hU|i_ t@4T*i Lu
UL?|hitc MiU@ti hi*@M*i _@|@ |L UL?t|hU| |i4 t _U*| |L LM|@?
BL?} M@U! |L |i |iLhi|U@* 4L_i*c | tii4t T*@tM*i |L i |h@U| |i
??L@|L?t uhL4 L|T| _@|@ _hiU|*)f B# _@|@c Mi?} @@*@M*i ?
^@h|ih*) LMtih@|L?t @*tL @**Lt t |L i |i?_ |i *i?}| Lu |i |4i
tihit
43 Li
vkrfnv wr rxwsxw duh pdlqo| gulyhq e| surgxfwlylw| vkrfnv +Vrorz uhvlgxdo
vkrfnv, wkh uhvxowv ghulyhg iurp wkh wzr gdwdvhwv vkrxog eh frpsdwleoh1
D
W? Lh_ih |L @?@*)3i L B# _@|@ UL4T@hit | |i _@|@ ti_ ?
@?3L?ih i| @* EbbD |i t@4i i ihUti @t ?_ih|@!i? t?} |i ?i
_@|@ ti| uLh |i t@4i UL?|hit Ai hit*|t LM|@?i_ @hi t44@h3i_
? A@M*i G2
A@M*i G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu , U@?}i +@|i
VL*@|*|) | B# #@|@
jh Ee_
| ff
bSf bbf
Ceo6@?+
8 o@?Se
Lg
U|@,+
.oJRe
2e
22
bD
2DH
bf
,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh B#
*|L} |i @MtL*|i @*it _gihc |i ?i h@?!?} M@ti_ L? B#
_@|@ t t4*@h |L |@| hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i  6Lh |t hi@tL? i ** @UUiT|
|i B# _@|@ |L Mi UL4T@|M*i | |ih _@|@ Ai @_@?|@}i Lu t?}
B# t |@| | t @@*@M*i uLh @** ,N UL?|hitc uLh |i N5 @?_ uLh a@T@?c
uLh @ hi*@|i*) *L?} TihL_
Nt?} |t B# _@|@ ** @**L t |L |it| |i igiU|t Lu |i 4i4
MihtT Lu T@h|U*@h UL?|hit Lh }hLTt Lu UL?|hit L? |i ?t|@M*|)
Lu |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|i AL @__hitt |i ThLM*i4t t|@|i_ MiuLhic
|i @?@*)tt ** Mi ?_ih|@!i? t?} ^@h|ih*) _@|@ uhL4 b.e |L bbDc
uLh |i N5c @?_ 4Lt| ,N 4i4Miht Ai ?U*tL? Lu a@T@?iti _@|@ ? |i
_@|@ti| ** @*tL @**L t |L 4@!i Thi_U|L?t uLh |i ihL)i? i U@?}i
h@|i
44 Dsshqgl{
5 frqwdlqv d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh vhulhv1
hvwlpdwhv dqg wkh fryduldqfh pdwul{ duh vkrzq lq Dsshqgl{ 61
45 Uhjuhvvlrq
S
** it|4@|it Thiti?|i_ @MLi L4| |i Thiti?Ui Lu |h@?t@U|L?t
ULt|t @?_ ?Uh |i M@t hiuihhi_ ? |i i?_ Lu |i *@t| tiU|L? At L4t
tL?c Liihc ** t|** Mi ?iUitt@h) MiU@ti |i _@|@ ?ii_i_ |L ThL )
|iti ULt|t t ?L| @@*@M*i #@|@ L? M_@t! tThi@_tc UL*_ ThL_i
@ ThL ) uLh |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t ? |i uLhi}? i U@?}i 4@h!i|c @*|L}
|ihi t ?L UL?ti?tt L? i|ih |t t @? @TThLTh@|i ThL )c M| |ihi
@hi ThLM*i4t | |i _@|@ti|t @@*@M*i #@|@t|hi@4 @?_ L|ih UL4
4ihU@* _@|@M@tit |@!i t| L?i T@h|U*@h ^L|i Lu @ t?}*i M@?! Tih _@)
Lh |i @ih@}i Lu |hii Lh uLh M@?!t @| U*Lti Lu Mt?itt ) UL4T@h?}
|t ?4Mih | |i ?4Mih Lu +i|iht< ^L|it _h?} Th* |@| t hi
TLh|i_ M) O@h|4@?Ebb. L?i U@? @i @? _i@ Lu L 4ThiUti |iti
_@|@ @hie Ai *@||ih tit 4Lhi hi*@M*i _@|@ @__?} ?uLh4@|L? uhL4
@hLt tLhUitc M| |t _@|@ ti| t @ tLh| T@?i* | L?*) |L )i@ht
Ai *L?}it| @UUh@|i |4i tihit _@|@ @TTi@ht ? O@h|4@?EbbSc M|
t t| @@*@M*i uLh M_@t! tThi@_t ? _L**@h)i? |h@?t@U|L?t EMi|ii?
bHS @?_ bbDD
46 Dqrwkhu
zd| wr ryhufrph wkh sureohp frxog eh wr prgho ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS
gluhfwo|1 Krzhyhu wkh| pd| lqfoxgh rwkhu skhqrphqd dsduw iurp wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv/
vxfk dv phdvxuhphqw huuruv1 Plfkdho/ Qred| dqg Shho+4<<3, vkrz wkdw wkh ehkdylrxu
ri ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS fdq eh zhoo ghvfulehg e| dq h{srqhqwldo vprrwk wudqvlwlrq
dxwruhjuhvvlyh +HVWDU, prgho1 Ilwwlqj wklv surfhvv lw lv srvvleoh wr h{wudfw wkh l1l1g1
lqqrydwlrqv lq wkh ghyldwlrqv iurp SSS1
47 Wdeoh 4/ sdjh 671
48 Sruwhv dqg Uh| +4<<;, hvwlpdwh wkh yroxphv ri wudgh lq hdfk fxuuhqf| dqg xvh
Kduwpdqq +4<<:,*v hvwlpdwhv iru wkh hodvwlflw| ri wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv zlwk uhvshfw wr
iruh{ yroxphv +031336,/ lq rughu wr rewdlq wkh ch{shfwhg* ohyhov ri hxur wudqvdfwlrqv
frvwv xqghu glhuhqw vfhqdulrv1 Wklv lqgluhfw dssurdfk pd| eh dssursuldwh wr hvwlpdwh
wkh h{shfwhg ohyhov exw fdqqrw jlyh lqirupdwlrq rq wkh yduldelolw|1
.
D
,hL , U@?}i +@|i VL*@|*|) @?_ ,N
UL4TLt|L?
W? Lh_ih |L |it| L ihL i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) _iTi?_t L? |i UL4TL
t|L? Lu ,Nc tiih@* 4L?i|@h) ?L?t< ihi UL?t|hU|i_G |i Lhi<c
uLh4i_ M) Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic t|h@ @?_ |i i|ih*@?_t Ei*}4 @?_
w i4MLh} i U*_i_( |i Lhi:|@<c ihi W|@*) @t @__i_ |L |i
ThiLt *t| Lu UL?|hit( |i ,hL3L?i<c U ?U*_it |i UL?|hit
|@| @i L?i_ |i t?}*i Uhhi?U) ? |i €ht| t|@}ic i UiT| uLh i*
}4c w i4MLh} @?_ 5T@?( |i ,hL:!<c U hit*|t uhL4 @__?}
|i Nk |L |i ,hL3L?i<( @?_c €?@**)c |i ,hL:L|t<c uLh4i_ M) @**
|i UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i ,hL3L?i< }hLT T*t |i Nkc #i?4@h!
@?_ 5ii_i? EBhiiUi i U*_i_ t u@h @t i*}4c w i4MLh}c BhiiUi
@?_ 5T@? @hi UL?Uih?i_c |i _@|@ uLh |iti UL?|hit _L ?L| tii4 UL4
T@h@M*i | |i _@|@ uLh |i L|ih UL?|hitc ? |ih4t Lu Ruhi^i?U) W?
tL4i Lu |iti U@tit |i _@|@ 4@) @i Mii? ?|ihTL*@|i_ uhL4 @??@* LM
tih@|L?t @?_ _L ?L| tii4 @TThLTh@|i uLh i |h@U|?} ^@h|ih*) tLU!t
6Lh |iti hi@tL?tc |Lti UL?|hit ihi i U*_i_ uhL4 |i @?@*)tt
,hLTi@? tLU!t uLh |iti _gihi?| 4L?i|@h) ?L?t<c ihi UL?
t|hU|i_c L? |i M@tt Lu t|LhU@* B# |hi?_tc uL**L?} i^@|L? EHc
U }it |i @}}hi}@|i tLU! @t @ i}|i_ UL4M?@|L? Lu |i ?_
_@* 4i4Mih UL?|hit< tLU!t Ai *@||ih ihi it|4@|i_ M) €||?}
?_iTi?_i?| + ThLUittit |L |i B# tihit Lu i@U T@h|UT@|?} UL?
|h)c @UULh_?} |L |i @tt4T|L?t Lu i^@|L? Ef
**L?} uLh |i u@U| |@| Bih4@? _@|@ @u|ih ?€U@|L? ?ULhTL
h@|it |i _@|@ uhL4 ,@t| Bih4@?)c |i t|@|t|U@* 4L_i* @tt4i_ uLh
L|T| ? tiU|L? e tii4t |L 44U |i Mi@Lh Lu |i _@|@ u@h*) i**c
i UiT| uLh |i TihL_t uL**L?} ML| L* tLU!t ? @ ?4Mih Lu UL?|hit
@?_ uLh |i TihL_ ULhhitTL?_?} |L |i t|iiT b.H hiUittL? ? t|h@
@?_ uLh |i Wht MLL4< @u|ih bbeS ,t|4@|L?t @hi hiTLh|i_ ? T
Ti?_ e Ai @h@?Uit @?_ UL@h@?Uit Lu |i ihhLh |ih4t LM|@?i_
49 Ghwdlov
duh jlyhq lq Dsshqgl{ 71
H
4T*) |i uL**L?} hit*|t uLh |i ihL_L**@h% ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i
L*@|*|itG
A@M*i e G L_i* ,t|4@|it Lu |i L*@|*|) Lu _L**@h @?_ )i?
i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i Bih4@? Uhhi?U)
@?_ )TL|i|U@* ,N< Uhhi?Uit
jh Eee
ff
|
Bih4@?)
Lhi
Lhi:|@
,hL3L?i
,hL:!
,hL:L|t
_L**@h
ff
fb
fbe
fbf
fHHD
fH.2
)i?
fHSf
f.eD
f.
f.fD
fSbH
f.fe
,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? ,# _@|@ uLh B# Eb.ebbD
Ai hit*|t t}}it| |@| |i ihL i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i |L
L|ih 4@Lh ?|ih?@|L?@* Uhhi?Uit tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L Mi *itt L*@|*i
UL4T@hi_ | |i i@h*ih _i|tUi4@h! i U@?}i h@|i Ai _i|tUi4@h!
ihi t ti_ @t @ Mi?U4@h! MiU@ti | t |i ,hLTi@? Uhhi?U) | @
4Lt| ThL4?i?| hL*i ? W?|ih?@|L?@* 6?@?Ui Ai ,N |@| _i*iht
|i }it| t|@M*|) @}@?t| |i _L**@h t @ 4L?i|@h) ?L? uLh4i_ M) @**
|i UL?|hit ? |i t@4T*i W? T@h|U*@hc |i Nk<t LT|L| U*@ti tii4t
|L @i @? LTTLh|?|) ULt| ? |ih4t Lu ihL i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) Ai
_iUhi@ti Lu L*@|*|) ? |i U@ti Lu |i Nk U@? Mi i@t*) i T*@?i_ M)
@ } UL@h@?Ui | |i N5c @ttLU@|i_ | |t } B# i}|.
W? u@U|c @__?} |i Nk hi_Uit |i @h@?Ui Lu ,hLTi@?_i _t|h
M@?Uit @?_ i?@?Uit |ih UL@h@?Ui | N5 tLU!t W? @| UL?Uih?t
|i L*@|*|) Lu |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|ic |i 4i4MihtT Lu 5i_i?
4: Fryduldqfhv
duh uhsruwhg lq Dsshqgl{ 71
b
@?_ #i?4@h! tLt @ TLt|i 4T@U| L? L*@|*|)c 4@?*) _i |L |i
?i}@|i UL@h@?Ui Lu |iti UL?|hit< B# | |@| Lu a@T@?H
AL ihu) i|ih |i ?4Miht hiTLh|i_ @MLi @hi t|@|t|U@**) _u
uihi?| uhL4 i@U L|ihc @ t|@|t|U@* |it| @t U@hhi_ L| At @t UL?
t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu |i |it|t ThLTLti_ M) #iML*_ @?_ @h@?LEbbD
uLh UL4T@h?} uLhiU@t| ihhLht 6Lh @ *Ltt u?U|L? tU @t |i t^@hi Lu
|i uLhiU@t| ihhLhtc |i _gihi?Ui Mi|ii? |L *Ltt tihit E02| 02| @t @?
@t)4T|L|U@**) ?Lh4@* _t|hM|L? AihiuLhic |i *@h}i t@4T*i Efc 
t|@|t|U uLh |it|?} |i ?** )TL|itt |@| |i ihhLh tihit @hi _gihi?| t
S
7 ' E02| 02| *EA jc ihi j t |i t|@?_@h_ _i@|L? Lu |i _gihi?Ui
Lu |i *Lttit AL |it| i|ih |i _t|hM@?Uit uL?_ uLh |i _gihi?|
,Nt< @hi t|@|t|U@**) _gihi?|c |i tihit E02| 02| ihi hi}hitti_ L?
@ UL?t|@?| L|Ui |@| |i | |er| uLh |i )TL|itt |@| |i UL?t|@?|
t i^@* |L 3ihL ULhhitTL?_t |L 7 Ai |it|t ?_ih|@!i? @hi hiTLh|i_ ?
TTi?_ D @?_ 4T*) |@| 4Lt| Lu |i @*it ? |i ThiLt |@M*i @hi
UL?t_ihi_ t@|t|U@**) _gihi?| uhL4 i@U L|ihb
ih@**c 4Lt| hit*|t tii4 |L ULhhLMLh@|i @h|?Ebb.<t UL?U*tL?
|@| |i *@h}ih |i 4L?i|@h) ?L?c |i 4Lhi t|@M*i | 4t| Mi OLiihc
? |t U@tic | t |i T@h|U*@h U@h@U|iht|Ut Lu ThL_U||) |hi?_t
|@| @UUL?| uLh |t €?_?}c @?_ ?L| |i t3i ? |ti*u W? u@U|c @__?}
#i?4@h! @?_ 5i_i? |L |i }hLT Lu ,hL:!<c i?@?Uit |i L*@|*|)
Lu |i ihL)i? i U@?}i h@|i _i |L |i ?i}@|i UL@h@?Ui Mi|ii?
|i L|T| tLU!t Lu |iti UL?|hit | |i a@T@?iti L|T| tLU!t
,N _Lit ?L| t4T*) i?*@h}i @?) i t|?} iUL?L4)c | ?t|i@_ @TT*it @
UL44L? 4L?i|@h) TL*U) |L _gihi?| iUL?L4it | |ih L? tTiU€U
ui@|hit
4; Wkhvh
qhjdwlyh fryduldqfhv dsshdu hyhq li qr gxpplhv duh lqfoxghg lq wkh
uhjuhvvlrqv1
4< Dffruglqj wr wklv whvw/ krzhyhu/ wkh phpehuvkls ri wkh xn lv qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo| vlj0
qlfdqw1 Lw vkrxog eh qrwhg wkrxjk wkdw wklv whvw pxvw eh frqvlghuhg zlwk uhvhuydwlrq
ehfdxvh wkh whvwv iru lwv qrupdolw| duh uhmhfwhg1
2f
S
@?}it ? Vi*LU|)
Ai h@?!?} hiTLh|i_ @MLi 4@) Mi tMiU| |L i?_L}i?i|) ThLM*i4t
*|L} ThL_U||) |hi?_t tL*_ ?L| Mi i TiU|i_ |L U@?}i t}?u
U@?|*) | |i 4L?i|@h) N?L?c i*LU|) |hi?_t 4@) U@?}i _h@4@|
U@**) At t @? 4TLh|@?| ttic tTiU@**) u |i , _Lit ?L| |@h}i|
?L4?@* ?UL4ic M| ?t|i@_ |@h}i|t 4L?i) }hL|G
|n
' ZW
|
E2f
5Mt|||?} |i 4L?i|@h) TL*U) h*i E2f ?|L |i i*LU|) Lu 4L?i)
hi*@|L? )i*_t |i uL**L?} Mi@Lh uLh ?@|L?G
v|n
R|n
' ZW
R|
0|n
E2
W? |t U@ti i*LU|) tLU!t @hi 4TLh|@?| uLh |i @?@*)tt W? T@h|U*@hc
tMt|||?} |i *L}@h|4 Lu |t TL*U) u?U|L? ?|L i^@|L? EH @?_
}?Lh?} @}@? |i igiU| Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|t2f c |i i ThittL? uLh |i
it|4@|i_ L*@|*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|i ** ?L |@!i |i uL**L?} uLh4c
uLh @** c G
jh 2 Ee
|n ' T @o|n
% #
0|n *v|n
*?
0|n* v|n
$&
E22
W? Lh_ih |L €?_ L| L |i ?U*tL? Lu i*LU|) tLU!t ? |i @?@*
)tt 4@) @giU| |i hit*|tc | t 4TLh|@?| |L _i€?i ,hLTi@? i*LU|)c
? |ih4t Lu |i _@|@ uhL4 |i ?__@* UL?|hit ,hLTi@? i*LU|)
UL*_ Mi _i€?i_ @t @ i}|i_ @ih@}i Lu |i i*LU|it LMtihi_ ? i@U
4i4Mih UL?|h) @?_ | tii4t hi@tL?@M*i |L @tt4i |@| |i i}|t **
53 Wkh
eldv iurp ljqrulqj wudqvdfwlrqv frvwv lq wklv vhfwlrq zloo eh hvvhqfldoo| wkh
vdph dv wkh rqh ghvfulehg ehiruh/ surylghg wkdw vkrfnv lq wudqvdfwlrq frvwv duh qrw
fruuhodwhg zlwk vkrfnv lq yhorflw|1
2
ULhhitTL?_ |L |i hi*@|i t3i Lu i@U 4i4Mih t|@|i2 A@!?} _| @?_
s | _i€?i_ ? i^@|L? EH | ** Mi @tt4i_ |@|G22
Te|n _| T_|n ns | Ts |n ' Te| e|n
E2
ihi
e|n '
_| T_|
s | Ts |
_|n n
s |n
_| T_| n s | Ts |
_| T_| n s | Ts |
E2e
) @**L?} uLh i*LU|) tLU!t @?_ hiTi@|?} |i i ihUti Lu |i Thi
Lt tiU|L?c | t TLttM*i |L ihu) |@| UL?U*tL?t hi4@? ?U@?}i_
ii? i? i*LU|) |hi?_t @hi |@!i? ?|L UL?t_ih@|L?2 ,hLTi@?
i*LU|) tLU!t uLh |iti _gihi?| 4L?i|@h) ?L?t<c ihi UL?t|hU|i_
uL**L?} i^@|L? E2ec U }it |i @}}hi}@|i i*LU|) tLU! @t @
i}|i_ UL4M?@|L? Lu 4i4Mih UL?|hit< i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit Ai
*@|ih ihi it|4@|i_ M) €||?} ?_iTi?_i?| + ThLUittit |L |i i*LU
|) tihit Lu i@U T@h|UT@|?} UL?|h)c @UULh_?} |L |i @tt4T|L?t Lu
i^@|L? E
Ai t4T*i + ThLUittit @tt4i_ tii4 |L _itUhMi |i _@|@ hi@
tL?@M*) i** i UiT| ? |i U@ti Lu |i N5c 6?*@?_ @?_ |i Nk W? |i
U@ti Lu ML| 6?*@?_ @?_ |i Nk |t U@? Mi @||hM|i_ |L hi_i€?|L?t
Lu |i L?i) @}}hi}@|i |@| U@ti_ t|hU|h@* Mhi@!t ? |i  i*LU
|) tihit ? bHfGW @?_ bH.GW hitTiU|i*) t uLh |i N5c @ t4T*i +
ThLUitt U@??L| i T*@? |i TihL_t Lu *LLti< 4L?i|@h) TL*U)G bHDcbHSc
54 Wklv
dvvxpswlrq lv glhuhqw iurp zkdw lv dvvxphg lq Fdq}rqhul dqg Ghoodv+4<<8,/
zkhuh wkh yhorflwlhv lq Hxursh duh dvvxphg wr eh wkh vxp ri wkh yhorflwlhv lq hdfk
phpehu vwdwh1 Zh frqvlghu wkdw lw lv qhvvhvvdu| wr zhljkw yhorflwlhv e| vl}h wr pdnh
wkh qhz djjuhjdwh frqvlvwhqw zlwk d yhorflw| ri prqh| htxdwlrq iru Hxursh1
55 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ Hxurshdq yhorflw| frxog eh frqvwuxfwhg gluhfwo| iurp wkh frxqwu|*v
fdvk0lq0dgydqfh frqvwudlqwv1 Wklv zrxog lpso| wkdw wkh zhljkwv vkrxog eh wkh dprxqw
ri fdvk edodqfhv lq hdfk hfrqrp|/ zklfk frxog eh sur{lhg e| wrgd|*v fdvk edodqfhv
frqyhuwhg lqwr hxurv zlwk wkh hxur frqyhuwlrq udwhv1
56 Vzhghq zdv h{foxghg iurp wklv dqdo|vlv vlqfh vxlwdeoh P4 gdwd zhuh qrw dydlodeoh
iru wklv frxqwu|1
22
bbfc bbc bb2 E,# ,UL?L4U 5hi)tc N5c bH.%bHHc bb A@!
?} ?|L @UUL?| |iti LMtih@|L?tc |hii _gihi?| _44it ihi ti_
|L ULhhiU| uLh |i Mhi@!t ? |iti tihit ,t|4@|L? hit*|t @hi hiTLh|i_
? TTi?_ .c *i |i _@|@ t _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ S Ai 4T@U|
Lu i*LU|) tLU!t L? |i it|4@|i_ ihL i U@?}i h@|i L*@|*|) Lu |i
tiih@* ,Nt< @t U@*U*@|i_ M) tMt|||?} |i it|4@|i_ ihhLht ?
i^@|L? E22 Ai hit*|t @hi t44@h3i_ ? |i ?i | |@M*i
A@M*i DG L_i* ,t|4@|it uLh |i L*@|*|) Lu |i _L**@h @?_ )i?
i U@?}i h@|it @}@?t| |i Bih4@? Uhhi?U) @?_ )TL|i|U@*
,N< Uhhi?Uitc UL?t_ih?} @*tL i*LU|) tLU!t
jh 2 Eee
ff
|
Bih4@?)
Lhi
Lhi:|@
,hL3L?i
,hL:!
,hL:L|t
_L**@h
2e
Sf
D2
DD
eHS
DfS
)i?
2bS
2SDb
2SDH
2S2e
2DH2
2DH
,t|4@|L?t M@ti_ L? ,# _@|@ uLh B# @?_  Eb.ebbD
Ai h@?!?} Lu |i L*@|*|it Lu _i|tUi4@h! @?_ |i _gihi?|
ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|it hi4@?t |i t@4ic i UiT| uLh |i }hLT ?@4i_
,hL:L|t< E |i 4i4MihtT Lu #i?4@h! tLt @ TLt|i 4T@U| L?
|i ihL _L**@h L*@|*|) ?_ih L?i) |@h}i| L?i|@h) ?L? @?_c ?
T@h|U*@hc @ *@h}i 4L?i|@h) ?L? Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? UL?|hit tii4t
|L ?Uhi@ti t|@M*|) hi*@|i*) |L |i _i|tUi4@h! Aiti hit*|t 4@)
Mi hi*@|i_ |L |i €?_?}t |@| @ ,hLTi@?_i 4L?i) _i4@?_ u?U|L?
@TTi@ht |L Mi 4Lhi t|@M*i |@? ?@|L?@* _i4@?_ u?U|L?t Ai hi@tL?
uLh |iti i4ThU@* €?_?}t @t Mii? @||hM|i_ |L |i ?|ih?@*3@|L?
Lu Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? igiU|t Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uitc |hL}
@}}hi}@|L? ,hhLht ? _L4it|U 4L?i) _i4@?_ @TTi@h |L Mi ?i}@|i*)
2
ULhhi*@|i_ _i |L |ih Lh}? ? Uhhi?U) tMt|||L?c *t| @}}hi}@|L?
|L @ }ih *ii* ?|ih?@*3it tU tLU!t
thi) Lu |i *|ih@|hi L? @hi@_i 4L?i) _i4@?_ it|4@|L?
U@? Mi uL?_ ? h|t EbbS W| _itUhMit |i 4@? UL?|hM|L?t ? |t
@hi@ @?_ tLt L |i tiih@* it|4@|i_ ULiUi?|t Thiti?|i_ @hi hi@
tL?@M*) t|@M*i Mi|ii? t|_it @?_ |4i TihL_tc | ULhhiU| t}?t< @?_
T*@tM*i @*it @?_ L t|@M*i UL?|i}h@|?} i^@|L?t Lu @ hi*@|i*)
t4T*i !?_ ihi uL?_2e W| t 4TLh|@?| |L hi4@h! |L} |@|c @t ?L
|Ui_ M) |i @|Lhc h|@**) iih) tTiU€U@|L? _itUhMi_ ? |t thi)
?ULhTLh@|it @| @t Mii? *@Mi**i_ @ Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? |ih4< |L @U
UL?| uLh tMt|||L? Mi|ii? ,hLTi@? Uhhi?Uit @?_ |i _L**@hc U
@t ThLi_ |L Mi ih) 4TLh|@?| uLh |i }LL_ _@}?Lt|U TihuLh4@?Ui Lu
|i i^@|L?t #thi}@h_?} |i tti Lu i|ih |i ThL it ULti? @hi
@U|@**) }LL_ ThL it uLh |i Ti?L4i?@ |@| |i) @4 |L U@h@U|ih3ic
|i )TL|itt |@| Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? Mi|ii? |i _L**@h @?_ |i ihL
4@) ?Uhi@ti _h@4@|U@**) | |i 4L?i|@h) ?L?c 4@!it | _U*| |L
_h@ UL?U*tL?t @ML| |i t|@M*|) Lu |i t?}*i 4L?i) @}}hi}@|ic U
t *!i*) |L Mi @t *?ih@M*i |L |h@?t@|*@?|U Uhhi?U) tMt|||L? tLU!t
@t |i ,hLTi@? ?@|L?@* Uhhi?Uit ihi @4L?} |i4ti*it
AihiuLhic i*LU|) |hi?_t 4@) U@?}i _h@4@|U@**) @u|ih @ 4L?i
|@h) ?L? t uLh4i_ @?_ |i _iM@|i L? i|ih |i u|hi ,hLTi@?_i
4L?i) _i4@?_ u?U|L? 4@)Mi 4Lhi Lh *itt t|@M*i |@? |i uLh4ih ?@
|L?@* 4L?i) _i4@?_t t t|** ?hitL*i_ OLiihc |t T@Tih t}}it|t
|@|c *|4@|i*)c |i 4TLh|@?Ui Lu i*LU|) tLU!t uLh |i t|@M*|) Lu
|i ihL ** _iTi?_ L? |i TL*U) LT|L?t Lu |i , @?_ L? |t @M*|)
|L ?t*@|i |i iUL?L4) uhL4 |i4 __|L?@**)c |i M@t hi*@|i_ |L
_i@|L?t uhL4 4@) tgih uhL4 @ t|hU|h@* Mhi@!( Liihc | t
T*@tM*i |L i TiU| |@| 4L?i|@h) ?€U@|L? ** hi_Ui |t 4TLh|@?Uic
?L| L?*) MiU@ti |i M@t!i| Lu }LL_t ThL_Ui_ ? ,hLTi Lih@** U@? Mi
i TiU|i_ |L MiUL4i @ U*Lti tMt|||i uLh |i M@t!i| ThL_Ui_ ? |i N5c
57 Wkh frqwulexwlrqv vxuyh|hg duh=
Ehn{ dqg Wxolr +4<<3,/ Nudphuv dqg Odqh +4<<3,/
Duwlv hw do1+4<<6,/ Prqwlfhool dqg Vwudxvv0Ndkq +4<<6,/ Fdvvdug hw do1 +4<< 9,/ Wxoolr
hw do1+4<<9,/ Prqwlfhool +4<<6, dqg dq dgglwlrqdo frqwulexwlrq ri wkh dxwkru1
2e
M| @*tL MiU@tic ? |ih4t Lu |h@?t@U|L?t ULt|tc | @t Mii? @?|UT@|i_
|@| ihL @tti|t tL*_ MiUL4i @t *^_ @t _L**@h Lh )i? _i?L4?@|i_
@tti|tc |L} |t )TL|itt ?ii_t uh|ih ?it|}@|L?
.
L?U*_?} +i4@h!t
hiLt t|_it |@| |hi_ |L @h}i @ML| |i L|UL4i Lu 4L?i|@h) ?L?
? |ih4t Lu i U@?}i h@|i t|@M*|) @i T@_ ih) *||*i @||i?|L? |L |i
Mi@Lh Lu |i hi*i@?| _t|hM@?Uit @| @? @}}hi}@|i *ii* At T@Tih
|hit |L @h}i |@| @}}hi}@|L?c ? |i U@ti Lu ,hLTic @U|t *!i TLh|uL
*L _iht€U@|L? #i |L |i Thiti?Ui Lu @t)44i|hU tLU!t Mi|ii?
,hLTi@? iUL?L4itc @}}hi}@|L? 4@) )i*_ @? Lih@** 4Lhi t|@M*i iUL?
L4) W? @__|L?c |i 4i4MihtT Lu UL?|hit |@| @i @ } TLt|i
E?i}@|i Mt?itt U)U*i ULhhi*@|L? | |i N5 @?_ a@T@? L*_ @*tL
UL?|hM|i |L _iUhi@ti E?Uhi@ti |i @h@M*|) Lu |i i U@?}i h@|ic Mi
U@ti |i) 4@!i 4Li4i?|t ? |i Lih@** ,hLTi@? L|T| 4Lhi E*itt
ULhhi*@|i_ | |Lti ? |i N5 @?_ a@T@? 5?Ui ThL_U||) |hi?_t @hi
?L| *!i*) |L U@?}i t}?€U@?|*) ? @?) uLhitii@M*i u|hic u |i u|hi
, t @M*i |L ?t*@|i |i ,hLTi@? ,UL?L4) uhL4 i*LU|) tLU!tc |i?
|t hit*| t *!i*) |L L*_ @u|ih |i uLh4@|L? Lu ,N Vi*LU|) |hi?_tc
Liihc tL*_ Mi i TiU|i_ |L U@?}i _h@4@|U@**) | |i ?|hL_U
|L? Lu |i ihLc tTiU@**) u |i *@||ih t |L MiUL4i @ 4@Lh ?|ih?@|L?@*
Uhhi?U)
*|L} | t *!i*) |@| ,hLTi@? i*LU|) 4@) Mi 4Lhi ?t|@M*i
? |i ii?| Lu ?|ih?@|L?@*3@|L?c i*LU|) tLU!t ? ,hLTi 4@) t|@h|
|L MiUL4i 4Lhi ULhhi*@|i_ | |Lti ? |i N5 W? u@U|c L?Ui UL?|hit
t|@h| |L L*_ @t 4U hitihit ? _L**@ht @t ? ihLtc @*@?Ui Lu @)4i?|t
Uhtit ? |h_ UL?|hit ** t|@h| |L @giU| |i ihL @t 4U @t |i _L**@hc
*i@?} |i ihL_L**@h i U@?}i h@|i ?@giU|i_ M) |i |h4L* `i|ih
|i @h@?Ui Lh |i UL@h@?Ui igiU| t |i Thi_L4?@?| L?i t @ 4@||ih
2D
Lu i4ThU@* ?it|}@|L? |L Mi U@hhi_ L| i TLt| , @?|i L?i |?}
U@? Mi t|@|i_G u |i , _Lit ?L| @?| @| @** |L |@!i |i ht! |@|
|i ?i UL44L? Uhhi?U) ?|hL_Uit *L?}h? ?t|@M*|) ? |i t)t|i4c
| tL*_ @4c | |t TL*U) ULUit @?_ i Tih|tic @| ?t*@|?} |i
@}}hi}@|i ,hLTi@? iUL?L4) uhL4 i*LU|) _t|hM@?Uit
2S
+iuihi?Uit
do 3i?4@?c a EbHe RL_i*?} #i@|L?t uhL4 hU@t?} Lih
@h|)c W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4U +iic 2Dc .Db
d2o h|tc  EbbS Rhhi?U) 5Mt|||L? ? ,hLTi@? 6?@?U@* @h
!i|tc ? 3i?c @* EbbS Ai @UhLiUL?L4Ut Lu W?|ih?@|L?@*
hhi?UitG AiLh)c L*U) @?_ ,_i?Uic TbDe
do ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic c LL?c @?_ t@?6ihh)c aEbb.c Ai ,hL
@?_ , U@}i +@|i 5|@M*|)c ,WWc #LU4i?| _i Ah@@* b.2
deo ‚i?@tt)"‚ih‚ic c LL?c EbbHc R,N @?_ Ah@?t@|*@?|U , U@?}i +@|i 5|@M*|)c ,WWc #LU4i?| _i Ah@@* bHf2
dDo @?3L?ihc  @?_ #i**@tc O EbbDcRL?i|@h) W?|i}h@|L? ? ,
hLTiG W4T*U@|L?t uLh +i@* W?|ihit| +@|itc @|L?@* 5|LU! @h!i|t
@?_ |i VL*@|*|it Lu hUit @?_ , U@?}i +@|itc @|L*U N?
iht|) Lu wii?c W?|ih?@|L?@* ,UL?L4Ut +iti@U @Tih S
dSo Li?c # Ebb.c ROL ** Ai ,hL i@iqc ,+ S.
d.o ,N W?t|||i EbbDc W?|ih?@|L?@* hhi?U) L4Ti||L? @?_ |i
6|hi +L*i Lu |i 5?}*i ,hLTi@? hhi?U)c k*ih w@ W?|ih?@
|L?@*
dHo #@|)@?c @?_ TTi?}ihc a Ebbf RAit|?} hU@t?} Lih
@h|)G 5L4i ,_i?Ui Lu |i ,giU|t Lu Ah@?t@U|L? Lt|tc ,UL?L
4i|hU +iitc bE2c 22ef
dbo #iML*_c 6 @?_ @h@?Lc + EbbDc RL4T@h?} hi_U|i UU
h@U)c aLh?@* Lu t?itt @?_ ,UL?L4U 5|@|t|Utc VL* c Lc T
2D2S
dfo # |c EbHbc R,?|h) @?_ , | #iUtL?t N?_ih N?Uih|@?|)c a
, b.
do kh}4@?c EbHb@c , U@?}i +@|i W?t|@M*|)c WA hitt
2.
d2o kh}4@?c EbHbMc RAi @ti uLh 5|@M*t?} , U@?}i +@|itc
uLh_ +ii Lu ,UL?L4U L*U) D
do O@h|4@??c EbbSc RAh@_?} VL*4it @?_ Ah@?t@U|L?t Lt|t
? |i 6Lhi}? , U@?}i @h!i|% ,_i?Ui uhL4 #L**@hvi? 5TL|
#@|@c w5, 6?@U@* @h!i|t BhLTc #tUttL? @Tih 5ihit 22
deo O@h|4@??c Ebb.c R#L +i|iht 5Thi@_t +iiU| hhi?Uit< #u
uihi?Uit ? B*LM@* Ah@_?} U||)qc w5, 6?@U@* @h!i|t BhLTc
#tUttL? @Tih 5ihit 2SD
dDo Wt@h_c @?_ +UUc w EbbHc R,Nc _t|4i?|c @?_ , U@?}i
+@|i V@h@M*|)c W6c `%bH%Df
dSo @h|?Ebb.c RAi , U@?}i +@|i L*U) Lu |i ,hLG @ @||ih Lu
53iqc ,+c _tUttL? T@Tih SeS
d.o @ttL?c @?_ Ah|i*MLL4c Ebb. RAi @h@U|iht|Ut Lu |i
,hLc |i #i4@?_ uLh +itihitc @?_ L*U) LLh_?@|L? N?_ih
,Nc ? khi}ihc Ac @ttL?c @?_ Ah|i*MLL4c Ebb.c ,N
@?_ |i W?|ih?@|L?@* L?i|@h) 5)t|i4c T be22ec W6
dHo Uk??L?c + EbbSc Ai +*it Lu |i B@4ic WA hitt
dbo ,# ,UL?L4U 5hi)t
d2fo @?Ltc c LM@)c @?_ ii* # Ebb.c RAh@?t@U|L?t Lt|t @?_
L?*?i@h _t|4i?|t ? |i +i@* , U@?}i +@|itc aLh?@* Lu
L*|U@* ,UL?L4)c bb.c L* fDc ?e
d2o Lh|itc + @?_ +i)c O EbbHc RAi ,4ih}i?Ui Lu |i ,hL @t @?
W?|ih?@|L?@* hhi?U)c ,UL?L4U L*U)c L 2Sc f.ec Th*
bbH
d22o +i)c O Ebb.c RW?|ih?@|L?@* Ah@_i @?_ hhi?U) , U@?}ic i?
|hi uLh ,UL?L4U ihuLh4@?Uic #tUttL? @Tih 22c w5,
2H
TTi?_  G @?3L?ih @?_ #i**@t ,t|4@|it2D
A@M*i G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh hL_U||)
#iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f|
S
N5
f
Eff
Bih4@?)
6h@?Ui
Nk
f2
EffS
f22
Effb
ffD
EfD
W|@*)
fH
EffD
-2
*? f|3
7..
fbH
2bI
bbI Df
fbD
2I
bbI bf
fbS
HI
bbI .b
fbb
2HI
bbI e
fb.
DI
bbI 2eS
Eff2
Eff
EfffH
Eff2
Eff
(`
@ti_ L? _@|@ uLh 5L*L +it_@*tc bSfbbf EB*U! @?_ +L}Lg bb
A@M*i 2G V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu hL_U||) 5LU!t
JE0|n c 0|n ff
N5
Bih
6h@
Nk
W|@
,h
N5
Bih
6h@
ffHf ff2S ff
ffD ff22
fff
Nk
ffD
ff2S
ff2
ff.
58 Fdq}rqhul dqg Ghoodv +4<<8,/ s156/ Wdeohv 4 dqg 51
2b
W|@
ff2
fff
ffH
ffb
f
,h
ffe
ff2
ff
ffe
ffD
TTi?_ 2 G |T| @?_ , U@?}i +@|it #@|@ #i
tUhT|L?
Ai €ht| _gihi?Uit Lu |i _@|@ UL?t|hU|i_ uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_
|i i*ii? ,N UL?|hit ?U*_i_ ? |i 4L_i* t tL? ? 6}hi c *i
|i _@|@ uLh |i ,N UL?|hit i U*_i_ uhL4 |i 4L_i* Ew i4MLh}c
i*}4c 5T@? @?_ BhiiUi t tL? ? 6}hi 2
6}hi G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ? +i@* B# 5ihit uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_ 
,N UL?|hit L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit
f
6}hi 2G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ? +i@* B# 5ihit uLh i*}4c w i4MLh}c
5T@? @?_ BhiiUi L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit
Ai B# _@|@ @t UL?t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu ^@h|ih*) ti@tL?@**)
@_t|i_ LMtih@|L?t Lu B# ?L4?@* _@|@ _i?L4?@|i_ ? |i L4i
Uhhi?U) Ai B# _i@|Lh | M@ti ? bbf @t ti_ |L LM|@? B#
@| UL?t|@?| ThUit Lu bbf Ai _@|@ @t UL?ih|i_ ?|L _L**@ht @| |i
bbf UL?ihtL? h@|it ??@* _@|@ hiuiht |L |i t4 Lu ^@h
|ih*) _@|@ ** _@|@ @t LM|@?i_ uhL4 |i ,# @|L?@* UUL?|t
t|@|t|Ut #@|@ L? _L**@h ?L4?@* i U@?}i h@|it UL?tt|t L? _L**@ht Tih
?@|L?@* Uhhi?U)c @t hiTLh|i_ M) |i ,#

TTi?_ G B# ,t|4@|it uLh @?3L?ih i| @*EbbD
5Mti| Lu L?|hit @?_ 5@4T*i ihL_
A@M*i G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T|
#iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f|
S
N5
f2.
Efe
Bih4@?)
6h@?Ui
Nk
f2
Ef2
fS
Effb
f
EfD
W|@*)
fD
EffH
-2
*? f|3
7..
fbH
eI
bbI S.
fb.
2I
bbI eH
fbS
feI
bbI eb
fbb
fbI
bbI D
fbS
fI
bbI bf
Eff
Eff2
Eff
Eff2
Eff
(`
@ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c bSfbbfc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2
A@M*i 2G V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu hL_U||) 5LU!t
JE0|n c 0|n ff
N5
Bih
6h@
Nk
W|@
,h
N5
Bih
6h@
ffeH ff2 fff.
ffef ff.
ffS
2
Nk
ff2S
ffH
ff
ffe2
W|@
,h
fffH ffS
ffD
ff
ff
ffD
ff2f
TTi?_ e G B# ,t|4@|it uLh N5c a@T@? @?_ 
,N L?|hit Eb.ebD "@h|ih*)
A@M*i eG 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T| 5TiU€U@|L? 
#iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f|
-2 ' bbI
S
N5
a@T
Bih
6h@
t
i|
W|@
6?
Whi
Lh
Nk
#i?
5i
*? f|3
(}e6
7..
(`
-3H
Jo6
ff
fbb.
f.I
2
He
2H.88
ffS
fbb
feI
HH
e
f
ff
fbbb
EfffS
Eff
ffb
fI
ee
.288
D2
ffe
fbbD
feI
bf
fHe
2D.88
ff
fbbb
fSI
bf
2fS8
D.f
ff
fff
f.I
2D2
2f2
eH2S88
ffH
fbbb
fDI
fb2
ebf88
.f88
ffS
fbH.
bI
H
2f2
S2
ff
ffH
fI
Df
2fS8
fe
ff
fbbb
I
Sf
2f8
.
ff
fbbb
fHI
H
.
.b88
ff2
fbbS
2I
2fS
2
fHD
ff
fbH
I
2DS
.2
Deb
EffD
Eff2
Eff
Effe
Eff
Effe
Effe
EffD
EfD
Eff
EffD
EffD
EffD
EfffS
Efff
EfffD
Efff.
Efffb
EfffS
Efff
EfffD
Efff.
EfffH
Efff
Eff
Edvhg rq wkh RHFG gdwd iru Uhdo JGS/ 4<:7 04<<8/
ghvfulehg lq Dsshqgl{ 5>
--Uhmhfwlrq dw 43( vljqlfdqfh> -Uhmhfwlrq dw 8(1
Ai hit*|t Lu 5TiU€U@|L? < EA@M*i e tL |@| tL4i i^@
|L?t @hi ?L| i** tTiU€i_ | @ t4T*i + Lt| hi}hittL?t tL
@|LULhhi*@|L? @?_ tL4i tL ?L??Lh4@*|) Aiti ThLM*i4t @hi ULh
hiU|i_ ? |i €?@* tTiU€U@|L? hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i e2c | |i ?|hL
_U|L? tiih@* _44) @h@M*it |L @UUL?| uLh _t|hM@?Uit |@| |i
4L_i* U@??L| i T*@? Ai €ht| @hi |Lti U@ti_ M) |i _iiT hiUittL?t
? Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic W|@*) @?_ Lh|}@* @u|ih |i €ht| L* tLU! E(U7
Ai b.eb.D hiUittL? @t t@hTih ? |iti UL?|hit |@? }i?ih@**)
i*tiihi W? Bih4@?) |i u@U| @t _i |L |i t@hT u@** ? |i i TLh|
L*4i *?!i_ | |i u@U| |@| |i Bih4@? iUL?L4) @t i@*) _i
Ti?_i?| L? i TLh| _i4@?_c *i ? 6h@?Ui | @t |i 4@h!i_ u@** ?
Th@|i ?it|4i?|c ? |i uLh| ^@h|ih Lu b.ec |@| _i|ih4?i_ |i
TLLh TihuLh4@?Ui Lu B# ? |@| ^@h|ih @?_ |i ?i | W? W|@*) |i
_i*@)i_ M| @t hiUittL? @t U@ti_ M) |i UL4M?@|L? Lu @ t*L_L?
? _i4@?_ | |}| iUL?L4U TL*Uit ?|hL_Ui_ ? |i i?_ Lu .ec ?
U*_?} tMt|@?|@* |@ ?Uhi@tit @?_ }ih ?|ihit| h@|itc ?|hL_Ui_ |L
hiuh@? |i i T@?tL?@h) |hi?_ |@| |i iUL?L4) @t i Tihi?U?} i?
|i €ht| L* tLU! MhL!i ?*) i? |i _iiTit| hiUittL? i Tihi?Ui_
M) |i UL?|h) t?Ui |i i@h*) bDf<t @t @*hi@_) Mi?} ui*| __ |i W|@*
@? @|Lh|it tu| |i iUL?L4U TL*U) t uLh Lh|}@*c |i TLt| €ht|
L* tLU! hiUittL? @t _iiTi?i_ M) |i |h@?tuLh4@|L? Lu |i UL?|h)<t
TL*|U@* ?t|||L?t ? |i @u|ih4@| Lu |i Th* .e hiL*|L?c i?
|i iUL?L4) @_ |L UL?|i?_ | ?@|L?@*3@|L?tc UL**iU|3@|L?t @?_
t|h!itc | |i *Ltt Lu |i UL*L?it @t @ tLhUi Lu UiiT h@ 4@|ih@* @?_
| |i hi|h? L Lu Lh|}iti ?@|L?@*t uhL4 ?}L*@ @?_ L3@4
M^i
*tL |i igiU|t Lu |i tiUL?_ L* tLU! ? |i N5c Bih4@?)c 6h@?Uic
|i i|ih*@?_tc W|@*) @?_ |i Nk U@??L| Mi i T*@?i_ M) |i t4
T*i + ThLUitt @?_ @_ |L Mi @UUL?|i_ uLh | @ _44) @h@M*i
E(UU7 __|L?@**)c @?L|ih _44) @h@M*i @t ?|hL_Ui_ |L i T*@? |i Mi@Lh Lu |i t|h@? B# }hL| ? |i Mi}???} Lu b.H
E(@r W? |t iUL?L4)c |i ThLh @??L?Ui4i?| Lu VA ?Uhi@tit @?_
4L_€U@|L?t ? _iThiU@|L? h*it ? 4_ b.. |L Mi @TT*i_ ? b.Hc
*i_ |L UL?t_ih@M*i @_@?Ui ThU@tit ? |i *@t| ^@h|iht Lu |@| )i@h
At @t UL4M?i_ | TLt|TL?i4i?| Lu ?it|4i?| tTi?_?} U@ti_
M) |i @??L?Ui4i?| Lu @ ?i 6i_ih@* W?it|4i?| hL}h@4 ? a@?@h)
e
Lu |i t@4i )i@h @?_ hit*|i_ ? @ ih) _iThitti_ B# }hL| uLh |i
Mi}???} Lu b.H Ai tu| ? |i |hi?_ U@ti_ M) |i Wht MLL4 @*tL
@_ |L Mi @UUL?|i_ uLh | _44) @h@M*it E (oe2S
A@M*i e2G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh |T| 6?@* 5TiU€U@|L?
#iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? f|
-2 ' bbI
S
N5
a@T
Bih
t
6h@
i|
W|@
6?
Whi
Lh
Nk
#i?
5i
*? f|3
(}e6
ff2
fbbH
ffD
fbb
ff2
fbbH
Efffe
Eff
ff.
fbbb
ff2e
ffe
fbHb
ff
fbbb
ffD
fbb2
ffS
fbHH
ff
fbb.
ff2
fbbe
ff
Effe
Eff2
Eff2
Eff2
Eff
Eff
Eff2
EfffD
Efff
EfffS
EfffD
Efff.
Efffe
@r
oe
ffb
EfffS
(U7
(UU7
7..
(`
ffS fSI eD
Efffe
feI HH
ffH ffH feI DS
Efffe
EfffD
fSI bf
ffb ffS fI .e
Efffe
EfffS
ff. f.I 2.
Efffe
ffH ffe fI eb
Efff
Efff
bI H
ff2
fI D.
ff2S
I .D
fbbb
ff. f.I Hf
ff2
fbbe
ff I 2
ff.
fbHe
ffe2 2I 22H
EffD
Eff
Eff2
Effe
Eff
EffD
Efff
EfffD
Efff.
Efff.
Efff
Eff2
EfffD
Efffb
Efff.
Eff2
Eff2
@ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c b.ebbDc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2
59 RHFG
Hfrqrplf Vxuyh|v1
D
W? |t €?@* tTiU€U@|L? @** i^@|L?t T@tt |i TLh|4@?|i@< @
|LULhhi*@|L? |it| | H *@}t @?_ |i 2 ?Lh4@*|) |i | @| |i f TihUi?|
t}?€U@?Ui *ii* i UiT| uLh |i Bih4@? i^@|L? U t@|t€it |i ?Lh
4@*|) |it| @| |i f TihUi?| t}?€U@?Ui *ii* M| |i @|LULhhi*@|L?
|it| L?*) @| |i D TihUi?| t}?€U@?Ui *ii* _44) uLh |i tiUL?_
L* tLU! @t ?L| t}?€U@?| uLh a@T@?c t|h@c 6?*@?_c Whi*@?_ @?_
Lh|}@*
A@M*i eG V@h@?UiL@h@?Ui @|h Lu
hL_U||) 5LU!t
JE0|n c 0|n fff
V@h
Bih
t
6h@
i|
W|@
6?
Whi
Lh
N!
#i?
5i
ffeD
ff.
ff
ffH
ffS
f22e
ff
feS
ffHH
f2
f.
Bih
L
Nt
ff2D
ffb
ff2f
ff
fff
fffb
ffS
fff
ffS
fffb
fffb
fffS
fffe
fffD
fffD
fff.
fff
ff2
fffD
fffH
fffe
fff
fffe
fffH
fffb
ff.
ffe
fffD
fff fffH
fff fffD
a@T
T @oEL7 ffff'ff.e ( T @oEa@Rffff'ffe2
S
TTi?_ D G +@?!?} 5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh ,t|4@|it
?_ih L4?@* W?UL4i A@h}i|?}
5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh |i h@?!?} Lu L*@|*|it ihi UL?t|hU|i_ L?
|i M@tt Lu |i |it|t uLh h@?!?} uLhiU@t|?} ihhLht _ii*LTi_ M) #iML*_
@?_ @h@?L EbbD ?) |L L*@|*|) @*it ihi UL?t_ihi_ |L Mi t|@
|t|U@**) _gihi?| i?iih |i |L tihit Lu ,hLTi@?< L|T| tLU!t
|@| }i?ih@|i_ i@U Lu |i4 ihi uL?_ |L Mi t|@|t|U@**) _gihi?| ,
hLTi@?< L|T| tLU!t< tihit ihi it|4@|i_ @UULh_?} |L i^@|L? EHc
t?} |i hit*|t Lu |i €?@* tTiU€U@|L? hiTLh|i_ ? TTi?_ e Oihi
4Lt|*) |i t}?€U@?Ui Lu @?) |L UL?tiU|i L*@|*|) @*it @t |it|i_
uLhc M| @ |it| L? |i t}?€U@?Ui Lu |i h@?!?} Mi|ii? |i L*@|*|) Lu
|i ihL i U@?}i h@|it Lu |i ,hL3L?i< @?_ |i ,hL:L|t< @t @*tL
?U*_i_ Ai hit*|t @hi hiTLh|i_ ? A@M*i D Aiti |it|tc |L}
4t| Mi *LL!i_ @| | tL4i hitih@|L? t?Ui |i) ihi uL?_ |L @i @
}ih Ti@! @hL?_ |ih 4i@? Lu 3ihL |@? @ ?Lh4@* _t|hM|L? L*_
@i
A@M*i DG +@?!?} Ait|t EL4?@* W?UL4i A@h}i|?}
6?@* 5TiU€U@|L? Ait|t
ULt|@?|
Bih4@?) t Lhi
Lhi t Lhi:|@
Lhi:|@ t ,hL3L?i
,hL3L?i t ,hL:!
,hL:! t ,hL:L|t
,hL3L?i t ,hL:L|t
.f. fD
e2S. fS
HSf. f.
... fS
f. fS
2Hf. fS
|@*i #`
S
2SS
2ff
fH
2ff
S2
SS
Hb
b.
Db
222
SS
+it*|t t}}it| |@| |i it|4@|it uLh |i ihL L*@|*|it Lu |i
Lhi U@? Mi UL?t_ihi_ t}?€U@?|*) _gihi?| |@? |Lti it|4@|i_ uLh |i
_i|tUi4@h!c t?Ui |i |@*i uLh |i UL?t|@?| |ih4 t } 54*@h*)c
@__?} W|@*) |L |i Lhi |L uLh4 Lhi:|@< Lh @__?} 6?*@?_c Whi*@?_
@?_ Lh|}@* |L |i Lhi:|@< |L uLh4 |i ,hL3L?i< tii4t |L @i @
t}?€U@?| 4T@U| L? |i L*@|*|) it|4@|it At @*tL @TT*it |L @__?}
.
5i_i? @?_ #i?4@h! |L |i }hLT Lu ,hL:!< __?} |i Nk _Lit
?L| tii4 |L @i @ t}?€U@?| 4T@U|c @*|L}c _i |L |i ?L??Lh4@*|)
Lu |i |it|c hiiU|?} @?) t}?€U@?Ui hi^hit |i ?it|}@|L? Lu |i
@TThLTh@|i Uh|U@* @*it U @hi *!i*) |L Mi *Lih |@? 2
TTi?_ SG Vi*LU|) #@|@ #itUhT|L?
6}hi G 6ht| #gihi?Uit ?  Vi*LU|) 5ihit uLh |i N5c a@T@? @?_
,hLTi L?t|hU|i_ uhL4 ,# 5ihit
Ai i*LU|) _@|@ @t UL?t|hU|i_ L? |i M@tt Lu ^@h|ih*) ti@tL?
@**) @_t|i_ LMtih@|L?t uLh c LM|@?i_ uhL4 |i ,# _@|@M@ti
** tihit ihi @*hi@_) ti@tL?@**) @_t|i_c i UiT| uLh |i Nk Ai Nk
H
4L?i) tihit @t @_t|i_ uLh ti@tL?@*|) | |i 4i|L_ Lu @ih@}i
_i@|L?t uhL4 |i |hi?_c |@!?} ?|L @UUL?| |i Mhi@! ? bH. Ai
€ht| _gihi?Uit Lu |i tihit UL?t|hU|i_ @hi tL? ? 6}hi TTi?_ . G Vi*LU|) ,t|4@|it uLh N5c a@T@? @?_
 ,N UL?|hit b.ebbD "@h|ih*) #@|@
A@M*i .G 5|LU@t|U hLUittit uLh Vi*LU|)
#iTi?_i?| @h@M*i G *? T|
S
N5
a@T
Bih
t
6h@
i|
W|@
6?
Whi
Lh
Nk
#i?
(&
7..
-2
(`
2I
b.I
S
DI
HeI
..
feI
bbI
Hb
D2I
b2I Sb
*? T|3
(r@
(s?
f.
fbSH
fb.
f
fbf
ffH
fbH
Effb
Efb
Eff
f.
EfD
Eff.
Effee
Eff2
fbSD
Efff
Efff
fbHD
2eI
bHI
22
f
fb.S
SbI
bI
2.
fS
fbS
I
bSI
S
f22
fbbe
fef
2I
bDI
2e
f2D
fbDe
S.I
b.I
Hb
f.
fbSe
bHI
bHI
H
ff2
fbbH
fS
SbI
bHI
HD
ffS
fbHS
DDI
bHI
SD
ff.
Eff.
Ef
Effb
Ef
Effb
Eff.
Eff
EffD
Eff2b
Eff2f
Eff2b
EffH
EffS
EffS
Effef
Eff
EffS
Effe
@ti_ L? |i ,# _@|@ uLh +i@* B#c b.ebbDc _itUhMi_ ? TTi?_ 2
b
TTi?_ H G +@?!?} 5}?€U@?Ui Ait|t uLh ,t|4@|it
?_ih L?i) A@h}i|?}
A@M*i HG +@?!?} Ait|t EL?i) A@h}i|?}
6?@* 5TiU€U@|L? Ait|t
ULt|@?|
Bih4@?) t Lhi
2fS. fe
Lhi t Lhi:|@
fS. fD
Lhi:|@ t ,hL3L?i
.be. fS
,hL3L?i t ,hL:!
Sf2. fS
,hL:! t ,hL:L|t 2Db. fS
,hL3L?i t ,hL:L|t 2Hf. fS
|@*i #`

2H2
2DD
f2H
2Hf
S2
b
b.
He
2H
b2
SS
TTi?_ bG Ai _}i| L?t|h@?|
W? Lh_ih |L tL*i uLh €ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?tc | t i@tih |L hih|i |i
M_}i| UL?t|h@?|G
d 3 n # 3 R 3 t 3 R 3 S 3 o E n n
ne
3 d 3 n # 3 R 3 t 3 R 3 S 3 o E n n
ne&
3 d& 3 n #& 3 R& 3 t& 3 R& 3 S& 3 o E n & n
n dE n 3 3 n E # 3 R 3 t 3 n A o E n ne
dE n 3 3 n E # 3 R 3 t 3 n A o E n ne&
dE n & 3 & 3 n E #& 3 R& 3 t& 3 n A& o E n & d n o E n e
d n o E n e&
d& n & o E n & f
ef