WMO
Operational Mechanisms for
Provision of Climate Services
Globally
G Srinivasan/ Rupa Kumar Kolli
WMO
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in
Belize, Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Climate Services
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Consolidation of knowledge about
past, present and future state of the
climate system;
Identification climate information
needs within the communities and
specific sectors to actions that are
particularly sensitive to climate
variability and change;
Development and delivery of a range
of ‘products’ and advice based on
climate knowledge and driven by the
identified needs for climate services;
Ongoing efforts for building
applications/products and
capacities for effective uptake to help
achieve benefits
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Generation
Ultimate user
Distinctive Features of climate services
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Available
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Dependable
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entitled to be accepted by
stakeholders in the given decision
contexts
Responsive and flexible
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for the user to confidently apply to
decision-making
Authentic
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presented in user specific formats
so that the client can fully
understand
Credible
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delivered regularly and on time
Usable
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at time and space scales that the
user needs
to the evolving user needs
Climate Risk Management
Defined as a systematic and
coordinated process in which
climate information is used to reduce
the risks associated with climate
variability and change, and to take
advantage of opportunities, in order
to improve the resilience of social,
economic and environmental
systems.
Sustainable
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affordable and consistent over
time.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Need to provide Climate information and Services on a
continuum of time-scales for
Climate risk management and adaptation actions
Current Climate Variability
Future Climate Change
Impacts/Risks/Adaptation
Seasonal
Weather scale
Inter-annual
Decadal
2100
20 – 30 yrs
Climate, in a narrow sense can be defined as the average
weather conditions for a particular location and period of time.
Described in terms of statistical tendencies and variability.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Global
Data and Product flows
Global Centers receive
and process nationally
generated data and
produce & distribute data
and products
Regional
Data flows
Regional dedicated
entities within the region
collection and exchange
of data & products
Framework Elements
o Observations
o Research
o Information
System
o User Interface
o Capacity Building
o Observations
o Research
o Information
System
o User Interface
o Capacity Building
Feedback & Demand
Respond to globally
expressed needs from
stakeholders at all levels
both suppliers and users
Feedback
Responds mainly to
stakeholders within the
region, particularly
national organizations.
National
Products & Services
Source of all data &
products, for within
country use and
international exchange
o Observations
o Research
o Information
System
o User Interface
o Capacity Building
National Users
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Primary Focus on
national needs,
relationship with users
and provide feedback on
requirements
Food
Security
Climate is just
one of the
many factors
!!
Components of the Framework
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User Interface Platform - to provide a
means for users, user representatives,
climate researchers and climate service
providers to interact
Climate Services Information System to collect, process and distribute climate
data and information according to the
needs of users and according to the
procedures agreed by governments and
other data providers
Observations and Monitoring - to
ensure that the climate observations
necessary to meet the needs of climate
services are generated.
Research, Modelling and Prediction - to
assess and promote the needs of climate
services within research agendas
Capacity Building - to support systematic
development of the necessary institutions,
infrastructure and human resources to
provide effective climate services.
Users, Government, private sector, research, agriculture, water,
health, construction, disaster reduction, environment,tourism,
transport, etc
User Interface
Climate Services Information System
Observations and
Monitoring
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Research, Modeling
and Prediction
CAPACITY BUILDING
Climate Service Information System (CSIS)
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The CSIS is the component of the GFCS most concerned
with the generation and dissemination (data flow) of climate
information.
It is the ‘operational centre’ of the GFCS. It will include
climate monitoring, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal)
and projection (centennial) activities.
CSIS “to collect, process and distribute climate data and
information according to the needs of users and according to
the procedures agreed by governments and other data
providers.’
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Elements of Climate Services Information System
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Currently Designated GPCs
Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Global Producing Centres of LRF
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In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making
global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres
(GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts
GPCs adhere to defined standards – aiding consistency and
usability of output:
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a fixed forecast production cycle
a standard set of forecast products
WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts)
A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with
which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined
(the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range
Forecasts – SVSLRF)
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
GPC products provided as minimum
requirement
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Predictions for averages, accumulations, or frequencies over 1-month
periods or longer
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typically, anomalies in 3-month-averaged quantities is the standard format for
seasonal forecasts. Forecasts are usually expressed probabilistically
Lead time: between 0 and 4 months
Issue frequency: monthly or at least quarterly
Delivery: graphical images on GPC website and/or digital data for
download
Variables: 2m temperature, precipitation, sea-surface temperature
(SST), MSLP, 500hPa height, 850hPa temperature
Long-term forecast skill assessments, using measures defined by the
SVSLRF
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize,
Radisson, Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
WMO Lead Centres for LRF
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WMO Lead Center for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model
Ensemble (LC-LRFMME)
Jointly coordinated by Korea Meteorological
Administration (KMA) and NOAA/NCEP
http://www.wmolc.org/
WMO Lead Center for Standard Verification System of
Long Range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF)
Jointly coordinated by Bureau of Meteorology (BoM),
Australia and Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort
George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013
Global and Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU)
WMO CCl TT Global and Seasonal
Climate Update (GSCU)
Regular global consensus
statements on seasonal
climate – Global Seasonal
Climate Update (GSCU);
GSCU to include information on
current and future seasonal
anomalies and uncertainty
aspects to assist risk
management, adaptation
policies and decision making
of global partners
Enhanced use of such products by
RCCs and other regional
entities;
Global-scale climate
monitoring results for
the previous 3 months
Potential evolution of
the state of the climate
over the next 3 months
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort
George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
WMO RCC Status Worldwide
Carbbean (CIMH) – in demonstartion phase.
NEACC
BCC
CIMH
ACMAD
CIIFEN
Designated RCCs
ICPAC
SADC-CSC
Pilot RCCs
Designated RCC Network
Pilot RCC Networks by 2012
Pilot RCCs in development
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
TCC
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
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WMO RCCs are Centres of Excellence performing regional-scale
climate functions
Mandatory Functions:
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Operational Activities for LRF
Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring
Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate
monitoring
Training in the use of operational RCC products and services
Highly Recommended Functions:
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Climate prediction and projection (recognized as important need –
WCRP/CORDEX linkage and linkage with the research communities)
Non-operational data services
Coordination functions
Training and capacity building
Research and development
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort
George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013
Regional Climate Outlook Forums
worldwide
NEACO
F
EASCO
F
SASCOF
ASEANCOF
NEBCOF
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
RCOF Concept
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produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based
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Regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector
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RCOFs bring together national, regional and international climate
experts, on an operational basis, to produce regional climate outlooks based on
approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season.
input from NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) and Global
Producing Centres of long range forecasts (GPCs) and other climate prediction centres.
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Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and policy makers, RCOFs
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RCOF sessions are expected to feed into national forums to develop
assess the likely implications of the outlooks on the core socioeconomic sectors in the region and explore potential applications of these outlooks.
detailed national-scale climate outlooks and risk information including warnings for
communication to decision-makers and the public.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Capacity development
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Human capacity
Infrastructural capacity
Procedural capacity
Institutional capacity
Capacity development should:
• address both demand and supply sides
• be service oriented
• respond to user needs
• be balanced with climate science capabilities
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort
George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
In conclusion we have to
build
- Systematic and
coordinated process for
production and use of
climate information
- Integrated global to
national levels
- Capacities to build
bridges and serve specific
needs
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson, Fort
George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Thank You
[email protected]/[email protected]
For more information on GFCS: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs
Google Group: http://www.wmo.int/gfcs/group
www.wmo.int
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013
RCCs (contd.) – update
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RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs; warnings and nationalscale products will continue to be the responsibility of NMHSs
Establishment of RCCs is initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs
and priorities
Implementation Status:
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Beijing and Tokyo designated as WMO RCCs in June 2009; North Eurasian Climate
Centre (Russia) commenced RCC pilot phase in December 2010.
India, Iran and Saudi Arabia expressed interest to host RCCs
Pilot phase of RCC-Network getting completed in Europe; and designation completed.
Africa initiates RCC implementation by identifying six RCCs (two of them being RCCNetworks); ICPAC and ACMAD commenced pilot phase operations.
South America decides to establish 3 RCCs (two of them being RCC-Networks): CIIFEN,
Brazil-Argentina and Brazil-French Guayana
Carbbean (CIMH) – has expressed inteerst and entered into demonstartion phase.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 22013
Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
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A key component of WMO Climate Information and Prediction Services
(CLIPS) project activities.
First established in October 1996 at the Workshop on Reducing
Climate-Related Vulnerability in Southern Africa (Victoria Falls,
Zimbabwe).
Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El
Niño event.
RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide.
WMO and a number of national, regional and international
organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have
supported their growth and expansion.
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Seasonal Climate Outlooks
Climate Monitoring
Specialised climate products
Decadal Climate Prediction
Long-term Climate Projections
Customized climate products
Climate Application Tools
National Consultation on a Framework for Climate Services in Belize, Radisson,
Fort George, Belize City 30 Oct to 1 Nov 2013
Advanced
Climate Service
Cat 4
Interaction with users
Full
Climate Services
Cat 3
Climate Data Management
Essential
Climate Services
Cat 2
Climate Observations
Basic
Climate Services
Cat 1
Categories of Infrastructural Capacities