KS and NE Red Flag
Warning Climatology
Scott Mentzer
Todd Shoemake
NWS Goodland, Kansas
Some Background info…
Red Flag program
 Highlights life threatening fire conditions to fire
fighters and other fire management officials
 Assuming dry fuels exist, program is based
primarily on surface winds and RH
Full Fire WX program became operational
across NE and KS this week including a
Red Flag Program
Some Background info…
• KS statewide fire management meeting held
on 4/20/06 in Salina
 Implemented RFW program
 Defined criteria for the program, West vs. East
• NE statewide fire management meeting held
on 6/20/06 in Hastings
 RFW climatology for NE was presented
 RFW program was implemented with thresholds
based on presented climatology
Purpose
• Provide data to discussion about Red Flag
Warning criteria
• Provide useful information to NWS offices
regarding staffing strategies
• Provide useful information to NWS
forecasters about normal red flag start and
stop times
Methodology
• Hourly surface weather observations were obtained for
30 years (1976-2005) at the following KS sites:
 Goodland (GLD)








Hill City (HLC)
Garden City (GCK)
Dodge City (DDC)
Concordia (CNK)
Salina (SLN)
Wichita (ICT)
Topeka (TOP)
Chanute (CNU)
Methodology (continued)
• Hourly surface weather observations were obtained for
30 years (1976-2005) at the following NE sites:






Valentine (VTN)
North Platte (LBF)
McCook (MCK)
Hastings (GID)
Norfolk (OFK)
Omaha (OMA)
Methodology (Continued)
• Roughly 3.9 million observations were reviewed using
Excel and locally written code.
• The study examined possible wind and relative humidity
thresholds for red flag warnings:
–
–
–
–
Criteria 1 (winds >=15 mph / RH <15%)
Criteria 2 (winds >=25 mph / RH <15%)
Criteria 3 (winds >=15 mph / RH <20%)
Criteria 4 (winds >= 25 mph / RH <20%)
• Fuel information is not included in the study.
Number of NE Events 1976-2005
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Criteria 3
Criteria 4
Station
<15%
>15 mph
<15%
>25 mph
<20%
>15 mph
<20%
>25 mph
OMA
OFK
GID
LBF
MCK
VTN
20
105
94
201
289
329
11
64
53
111
160
91
106
248
265
775
751
990
101
233
209
374
433
423
Average Number of NE Events / Year
Criteria 1
Criteria 2
Criteria 3
Criteria 4
Station
<15%
>15 mph
<15%
>25 mph
<20%
>15 mph
<20%
>25 mph
OMA
OFK
GID
LBF
MCK
VTN
1
4
3
7
10
11
<1
2
2
4
5
3
4
8
9
26
25
33
3
8
7
12
14
14
Number of KS Events 1976-2005
Station
GLD
HLC
GCK
DDC
<15%
>25 mph
372
185
303
273
Station
CNK
SLN
ICT
TOP
CNU
<20%
>15 mph
177
221
237
132
79
Average Number of KS Events / Year
Station
GLD
HLC
GCK
DDC
<15%
>25 mph
12
6
10
9
Station
CNK
SLN
ICT
TOP
CNU
<20%
>15 mph
6
7
8
4
3
DODGE CITY CWA YEARLY RED FLAG EVENTS
DDC,GCK
1976-2005
35
25
20
DDC
15
GCK
10
5
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
0
19
# RED FLAG EVENTS
30
YEAR
RH <= 15%
Wind >= 25mph
STATION
EVENTS
PER
YEAR
GCK
10
DDC
9
When do these events begin?
DODGE CITY RED FLAG EVENTS BY START TIME
1976-2005
70
64 62
53
50
40
40
30
22
20
10
15
12
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
23
00
21
00
19
00
17
00
15
00
13
00
11
00
09
00
07
00
05
00
03
00
0
01
00
# RED FLAG EVENTS
60
HOUR (UTC)
Avg Start Time = 20:16Z (14:16 LST / 15:16 LDT)
Avg Event Length ~ 2.9 hours
LBF Start Times…
LBF RED FLAG EVENTS BY START TIME
1976-2005
38
40
30
25
25
18
20
15
10 10
10
5
6
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
1
23
00
21
00
19
00
17
00
15
00
13
00
11
00
09
00
07
00
05
00
03
00
0
01
00
# RED FLAG EVENTS
35
HOUR (UTC)
Avg Start Time = 20:33Z (14:33LST / 15:33 LDT)
Avg Event Length ~ 2.3 hours
OFK Start Times…
OFK RED FLAG EVENTS BY START TIME
1976-2005
70
61
46
50
40
40
40
30
23
19
20
10
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
2
4
6
4
23
00
21
00
19
00
17
00
15
00
13
00
11
00
09
00
07
00
05
00
03
00
0
01
00
# RED FLAG EVENTS
60
HOUR (UTC)
Avg Start Time = 20:14Z (14:14LST / 15:14 LDT)
Avg Event Length ~ 2.7 hours
ICT Start Times…
WICHITA RED FLAG EVENTS BY START TIME
1976-2005
60
56
51
52
40
30
25
23
20
13
10
6
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
1
0
23
00
21
00
19
00
17
00
15
00
13
00
11
00
09
00
07
00
05
00
03
00
0
01
00
# RED FLAG EVENTS
50
HOUR (UTC)
Avg Start Time = 20:01Z (14:01LST / 15:01 LDT)
Avg Event Length ~ 3.1 hours
Is there a “Red Flag Season”
in the High Plains?
DODGE CITY RED FLAG EVENTS BY SEASON
OND
20%
JFM
34%
JAS
10%
AMJ
36%
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
North Platte, NE
LBF RED FLAG EVENTS BY SEASON
OND
22%
JFM
29%
JAS
13%
AMJ
36%
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
Norfolk, NE
OFK RED FLAG EVENTS BY SEASON
OND
21%
JFM
23%
JAS
9%
AMJ
47%
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
Wichita, KS
WICHITA RED FLAG EVENTS BY SEASON
OND
21%
JFM
33%
JAS
30%
AMJ
16%
JFM
AMJ
JAS
OND
Some Conclusions…
• Red Flag events throughout the KS and NE
domain typically start between 2000-2100UTC.
• There is no “well-defined” Red Flag season
• The preliminary thresholds that were established
for KS agree with climatology and seem
sufficient for Fire WX Operations.
Data Online…
Previous data along with the remaining KS and NE sites
are available online at:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gld/?n=firewx/redflagclimo.php
Hopefully this data will act as a planning tool for fellow NWS personnel as
well as Fire Management officials.