“Corruption” by Andrei Schleifer and Robert Vishny Modeling corruption under different assumptions in order to determine the consequences of corruption and the best theoretical parameters for encouraging growth The Structure of the Models • Most models of corruption assume that corrupt officials are agents with poor incentives acting on the nominal behalf of a recognized public principal, the government or state; this is the principal-agent model of corruption • In cases where the elite echelons of government share directly in revenues from corruption or even direct and control corruption as a mafia, corruption becomes analogous to taxation Principal-Agent Model of Corruption • Schleifer and Vishny assume the principalagent model of corruption applies and then analyze the impact of the structure of the corruption network on the consequences of corruption • Their model’s key assumption is that they are discussing bribes for homogeneous services to which payers are theoretically entitled-passports, building permits, licenses--and not unique or special favors of an extraordinary sort Corrupt Official as Monopolist • The simplest situation to model is one in which a single individual (or single office acting in coordination) has effective property rights over provision of a government service; no other office has power in this area, so “customers” only need to bribe here • If the corrupt official is free to set the bribe level and/or the quantity of goods (licenses, permits, etc.) provided, he is an effective monopolist, free to set the price as he sees fit in order to maximize bribe revenue Monopolist “without theft” • If the government official is refusing to provide services without a bribe but is forwarding the official government price of the service to the public treasury, he is said to be engaging in corruption “without theft” from the treasury. • In this case, the corrupt monopolist will set his bribe level such that his marginal revenue equals the official price of the service Monopolist Without Theft • The total cost with a bribe here always exceeds the official price; in this way corruption without theft tends to raise costs Monopolist with theft • If a corrupt official is collecting a bribe and not forwarding the official price of a service to the public treasury, he is said to be engaging in corruption “with theft” • Since the official has no marginal cost, he will likely sell the service until the marginal revenue equals zero; so the service will be provided more cheaply than the official government price Monopolist with theft • Because the price is lower with theft, businesses prefer it; but this reduces government revenues Without theft vs. with • The general consequences of corruption with theft differ from those of corruption without theft. Corruption with theft, if an official discriminates between “customers,” has the potential to render all companies not bribing an official uncompetitive • Example: When border guards takes small bribes to let importers avoid duties, they reduce a major expense for importers. Only importers paying the bribe last; others are outcompeted Without theft vs. with • Competition for access to corrupt officials thus ensures the spread of corruption with theft. • Since their bribe is cheaper than the official price, citizens have little personal incentive to expose corruption • Corruption without theft increases the cost of government services, so citizens try to avoid and/or expose excessively corrupt officials Govt. Revenue • In both cases, government revenues are reduced for the service • In corruption with theft, the government gets nothing (or a small token amount) • In corruption without theft, the higher effective price of the service will reduce the quantity demanded and the government will only get the official price for each sale of the service • The principal in the model, therefore, suffers from corrupt agents in either case Govt. Solutions that Create Bad Incentives • Some governments accept the inevitability of corruption and try to sell government positions in order to raise revenues to compensate for the effects of corruption • However, this increases the costs of the corrupt official, resulting in much higher bribe demands from them, the assumption that they will never be prosecuted for corruption (assumption of immunity), and the institution of universal corruption • When mid-level government jobs are purchased, non-corrupt officials cannot afford to hold office, as the cost of office will rise with corruption levels Intuitions for Govts • Corruption with theft aligns the interests of corrupt officials and “customers” of corruption, and so is more persistent since no one turns in officials • Corruption with theft also reduces government revenues more than corruption without theft, and forces governments to increase taxes, which hurts growth • Therefore, reducing obvious theft is a good way to reduce corruption; accounting systems that record all permits, licenses etc. let governments measure what revenue should have been and punish corruption with theft accordingly; this can force a switch to corruption without theft, which increases govt. revenues and also gives citizens an incentive to turn in corrupt officials Intuitions for Govts (cont’d) • Accounting mechanisms are more likely to reduce corruption in systems where there is significant accountability and/or rule of law--the switch from corruption with theft to corruption without theft will only decrease overall corruption if citizens feel there will be a response to consistent complaints. In systems with no responsiveness to citizen pressure and no reliable law enforcement, corruption without theft isn’t necessarily an improvement • These government intuitions only apply in cases where the corrupt official in a monopolist providing a homogeneous good that customers are confident will provide them with the full rights they need. The situation gets more complicated if other officials can potentially demand bribes for the same good, or new complementary permits or licenses, or perhaps a promise not to create arbitrary red tape/bureaucratic obstructions Industrial Org of Corruption • When officials are not monopolists in the provision of a good/service or when they do not have full control of their regulatory purview--i.e. other officials or offices can “enter the market” or produce complementary goods by threatening to derail or interfere with business activities approved by the officials in the first office--the model of behavior changes significantly. • If several offices can provide the same basic service, the monopoly model fails and competition must be accounted for • If citizens need several complementary goods, like multiple permits and licenses, the model also changes Complementary Corruption • When multiple offices intrude on one another’s regulatory purviews, by, for instance, requiring a permit from each office for a building project, the situation can be modeled as independent and rivalrous monopolists selling perfect complements- the permit from one agency is basically worthless without a permit from the other agency • Independent agencies selling complementary goods won’t take into account the effect of raising their bribe on the quantity demanded of the complementary good, and so both agencies set higher bribes than they would if a joint monopolist sold both complementary goods. This reduces total bribes collected and, more importantly for growth, the number of permits issued Complementary Corruption • Complementary corruption becomes exceptionally dangerous in countries that have poorly designed bureaucratic and regulatory structures such that there is essentially free entry into the provision of new, mandatory complementary goods and services like permits. • In many African countries, the purviews of dozens of agencies and offices at multiple levels of government overlap such that bribes can be demanded by dozens of different officials, so for a private business or person the total bribes can rise to infinity. • In such a case, questions over how many complementary bribes are required mean that bribes no longer secure effective property rights over a permit or license. As a result, the list of complementary inputs is not fixed, so investment declines Complementary Corruption • The well-known analysis of extralegal business activity by Hernando de Soto explains this phenomenon quite well, though it is not explained by Schleifer and Vishny. • Hernando de Soto and Schleifer & Vishny conclude that insecure property rights induce a lack of formal investment, which limits economic growth; de Soto explains how this results in low-efficiency extralegal economies (Schleifer & Vishny focus on insecure license and permitting rights rather than physical property, but the same intuition applies) • The ruinous nature of complementary corruption when there is free entry into the market occurs because of the insecurity felt by customers--in cases where there is coordination or cartel-like behavior that restricts entry into the market, complementary goods can make corruption more expensive for businesses but aren’t necessarily ruinous Real Life Consequences of Free Entry into Complementary Corruption • In modern rural India, individual towns set “tolls,” which in practice are intended to be to little more than bribes to the official collecting the bribe (corruption with theft, but with knowledge form superiors); because there are so many towns and almost all of them set bribes to get by on the road, it is very expensive to move goods inland. • Zaire has an even worse problem: bribes required to move goods make it cheaper to ship goods across the ocean than a hundred miles inland • Such trade corruption problems pop up wherever there are many officials managing the flow of goods and corruption is endemic: frequent demands for bribes prevent trade form enriching inland areas of many poor countries, explaining why landlocked, corrupt countries are almost always poor Competitive Corruption • If different government official, offices, or agencies can all provide a particular good, then the monopoly model fails • Schleifer and Vishny assume that Bertrand competition will force bribes down to zero in cases of corruption without theft and down to near zero in cases of corruption with theft • Schleifer and Vishny go so far as to suggest that the American federal system with many offices and officials within each agency each capable of issuing documents conferring legal rights and protections explains the low level of corruption experienced by ordinary citizens • If one passport official demands a bribe to issue a passport in a corruption without theft model, the customer will just go to another office to avoid the bribe; hence Bertrand competition • Accounting mechanisms make it difficult for most US officials to engage in corruption with theft Competitive, Complementary Corruption • If there is competition or even the risk of free entry into the provision of every one of the required goods in a complementary goods model of corruption, Schleifer and Vishny predict results identical to that of the competitive single good scenario • In a larger sense, the goods cease to be perfect complements with free entry provided that the papers provided by the official charging the lowest bribe obviate the need for papers from the officials charging higher bribes • Competition in the provision of each license, permit, etc. is thus a major recommendation of Schleifer and Vishny provided that there are accounting measures in place to ensure all corruption is “without theft” Corruption Preferences • In countries where weak rule of law and responsiveness to citizen complaints guarantees the presence of a culture of corruption, the question arise, what is most efficient assuming agencies have overlapping purviews? • Under the Schleifer and Vishny model, competitive complementary corruption is the most efficient--with simple accounting mechanisms, officials are forced into corruption “without theft,” meaning competition should drive the price down to roughly the official price • Joint monopoly is second best, as the coordinated corruption will result in the issuance of many permits • Independent monopolies are the worst--bribes will be set too high, and few permits will be issued, hurting growth Corrupt Joint Profit Maximizing • Directly akin to enforcing collusion in an oligopoly setting • Joint bribe maximizing occurs by preventing any individual agent from charging bribes above the agreed-upon level • Enforced collusion only occurs when there is strong central control of the bureaucracy by figures involved in the corruption with ample ability to mete out punishments to officials at any level; prisoner’s dilemma otherwise • Centralized police states like the Soviet Union, or allpowerful political mafias like the Chicago Democratic Party Machine, or small elites like Marcos’ Philippines are able to enforce collusion; however, regimes with information asymmetries, costly information gathering, or weak central control over low-level bureaucrats cannot Cartel Profit Maximizing • Joint bribe maximization can only occur when there is an effective cartel in charge • This cartel must be able to fire bureaucrats and officials or reassign them to roles where they cannot collect bribes (or otherwise control membership in the cartel) in order to enforce set bribe levels • It is observed that joint monopolies/cartels managing bribes are far preferable to independent monopolists providing complementary goods (and infinitely preferable to free entry into the creation of new complementary goods) • Russia under the USSR, Marcos’ Philippines, and Chicago all had solid growth and established corruption cartels; Sub-Saharan Africa, Bolivia, and Russia 1991-2000 had independent monopolist officials and stagnation State Strength & Cartels • Strongly centralized, authoritarian states often find enforcing cartels easier than decentralized and/or partially democratized and reformed states, according to Schliefer & Vishny • They cite the example of Russia in 1991 as the epitome of a emergent free entry into complementary government goods: almost overnight, Russia’s centralized cartel collapsed and bureaucrats became independent monopolists with overlapping purviews; the breakdown of a strong nomenklatura oligarchy due to the rise of (weak) democracy destroyed centralized, absolute control over the bureaucrats which destroyed the cartel • This discouraged growth through free entry into complementary goods creation, according to S&V Schliefer & Vishny’s Advice, #1 • S&V argue that competition in the provision of each government good will minimize corruption by driving bribes toward 0 so long as accounting mechanisms ensure corruption is without theft; this is a controversial point • They admit that in cases where accounting mechanisms allow corruption with theft, competition in the provision of each government good (price falls) will increase total theft from the government—but will increase provision of each service, which may be a net positive Corruption and Secrecy • Schliefer and Vishny also add secrecy to their model • They hypothesized that secrecy is what distinguishes bribery from taxation and makes it far more distortionary • Taxation is generally publicized and well-known, whereas corruption must be kept secret; even in countries with endemic corruption, publicizing corruption will usually result in embarrassment, demotion, dismissal, prosecution, etc. • This secrecy shifts incentives for public officials dramatically; officials have incentives to create regulatory roadblocks to discourage activities that are hard to profit from illicitly • At its most extreme, this may result in bans on goods, services, or activities that reduce bribes for officials Secrecy Changes Policy • Schliefer and Vishny use real-life examples to argue that the need to keep corruption secret encourages highly wasteful policies and expenditures by government officials • It’s hard to skim significant sums off of, say, purchasing medicines or books for which there are wide substitutes available and hide it in an invoice (how does an official explain a $10,000 textbook available for $70 on Amazon?) • This may explain large infrastructure and defense expenditures in corrupt developing countries that underinvest in human capital (education) and health care • In a memorable example from Mozambique, officials ordered a needlessly expensive, unique machine so there was no comparison good; this allowed invoice skimming Mozambique Secrecy • In Mozambique, a state factory requested foreign aid to purchase a modern piece of manufacturing equipment • There were many machines available at $10,000 that would meet all of the factory’s needs, but the manager and several officials insisted that they needed a unique machine costing nearly $100,000 • The unique machine probably would have offered limited additional value—S&V use $20,000 as an estimation—but because investigators had no easy comparison product, the manager and ministers were likely able to over-invoice and steal • Social losses of nearly $80,000 then occur, as $100,000 earmarked for aid was wasted on a unique machine just so officials could steal a couple thousand dollars Broader Consequences • The need for secrecy similarly provides an incentive for procurement officials to prefer spending on defense, where comparison goods are less common, rather than on basic medicines and school supplies, where comparison goods are easily available • Since primary education and basic health care have very high returns while defense spending provides very low returns for most countries, the social costs of the need for secrecy are likely enormous • Infrastructure projects are also bastions of graft, since kickbacks from contractors are common. Here, there is usually at least some social return from investment, but societies gain little from repaving the same road every single year, which officials might well do if they get a good kickback from the relevant contractor Advice #2 : Change Incentives • The principal-agent problem is one of bad incentives: the officials have every incentive to engage in graft and demand bribes if there is not an accounting/accountability system (to deter theft), a reporting system (to catch corruption without theft), & multiple possible sources for each good (competition to drive bribe prices down) • In the absence of anti-corruption measures, a bribe-maximizing cartel run by rational technocrats can at least limit the damage from corruption by reducing excess bribe demands; without the cartel, officials have every incentive to act as independent monopolists • Due to secrecy and the “other people’s money” problem, officials are encouraged to procure goods to maximize graft rather than results and to ban substitute goods that limit corruption; this leads to lowreturn government investments • Requiring all purchases to have comparison goods can reduce such graft; combined with aggressive invoice accounting and independent internal affairs investigations, corrupt practices should be minimized Broad Implications of Corruption • The final consequence of corruption is that, in order to keep knowledge about the degree of corruption to a minimum and maximize revenues from corruption, corrupt officials have every reason to favor socially suboptimal monopolies or oligopolies (easier to collect bribes from a small number of large firms), to limit foreign entry to the domestic market, and to protect reliable partners in corruption against efficient companies that may be reluctant to spend money on corruption when they feel they can report it • These moves toward more closed economies with fewer firms and barriers to entry for new firms and thus new ideas can prevent economic development • Foreign investors get deterred and domestic innovators get destroyed by red tape Conclusions • Schliefer and Vishny conclude that governments should: • Maintain basic accounting and accountability procedures • Ensure that there is a response system in place to deal with reports of corrupt officials simply stealing from the treasury to eliminate corruption with theft • Make government agencies compete to provide the same services • Create a competitive political climate in which responsiveness to citizen complaints is emphasized • Use political openness to force freedom of information-style openness on bureaucratic actions to prevent opacity Discussion: • Models only deal with day-to-day corruption – Paper does not discuss special deals like sales of government property • S&V have no real advice for how to make government auctions more fair • What about customs officials, border guards, building inspectors, and environmental inspectors? Discussion: • They assume that all government documents have value – in a country where the police can be bribed cheaply, it is unlikely anyone would bother bribing clerks for documents when they can just pay not to be arrested • They may overemphasize the importance of secrecy in countries with endemic corruption Discussion: • Their models are very useful for corruption involving homogeneous government goods • Their solutions are broadly applicable within the parameters of their model • The principal-agent model of corruption is instinctively reasonable and relies only on rational responses to incentives by agents • Their conclusions about democracy and openness need more evidence – Example: Russia in 1989 vs. 1994 Discussion: • They assert competition will result in Bertrand competition – Competition is almost never going to match the perfect competition model – Government offices tend to be far apart – Will people really walk five miles to avoid a bribe when they might just be charged a bribe at the other government office? • This explains why even in the US, we see some corruption-if the bribe is very low, it’s easier to just pay and avoid a hassle
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