Strategies for Sustainable
Energy Technology
Trondheim, 24. november 2003
Kaare Gether and Klaus Vogstad
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Department of Energy and Process Technology
Basic System Dynamics Structure
Level-1
Level-2
Level-3
(Following J. W. Forrester, 1961:67)
K.GETHER 2/12
lq st
Non
renewables
oil
ng
ng st
refining
lq transp
ng transp lgt
reforming
coal
nuclear
h transp
electrolysis
generating
lht
electrolysis
el transp
let
sun
Renewables
(central)
K.GETHER 3/12
h st
RFC
FC
el.transf.
el.transf.
lq burner
hydro
wind
ref/h st
lq ICE
lq ICE hyb
lq RFC
ng ICE
ng ICE hyb
ng RFC
h ICE
FC
El
bio wind sun
Renewables
(local)
hot water transp
el.transf.
ng burner
transp
stationary
appliances
heating
Path Dependence and Lock-in
Random external events (inventions, social
changes, economical conditions etc)
1
1
0
-1
Jan 01, 2001
Jan 01, 2004
Jan 01, 2007
Positive feedback
Negative feedback
(i.e. supply versus demand towards some sort of equilibrium)
x
Unit
110
B
(i.e. economy of scale, learning, network effects, market power)
y
x
Unit
110
+
105
R
+
y
+
105
State 1
100
Equilibrium
95
90
Jan 01, 2001
Jan 01, 2010
State 2
100
Equilibrium
95
Jan 01, 2004
Jan 01, 2007
Jan 01, 2010
Non-commercial use only!
K.GETHER 4/12
90
Jan 01, 2001
Jan 01, 2004
Jan 01, 2007
Jan 01, 2010
Non-commercial use only!
Energy Flows
Global
Regional
Transport
Sector
Non
renewables
Conversion
Bulk
Transport
Infrastructure
Stationary
Sector
Renewables
K.GETHER 5/12
Renewables
lq st
Non
renewables
oil
ng
ng st
refining
lq transp
ng transp lgt
reforming
coal
nuclear
h transp
electrolysis
generating
lht
electrolysis
el transp
let
sun
Renewables
(central)
K.GETHER 6/12
h st
RFC
FC
el.transf.
el.transf.
lq burner
hydro
wind
ref/h st
lq ICE
lq ICE hyb
lq RFC
ng ICE
ng ICE hyb
ng RFC
h ICE
FC
El
bio wind sun
Renewables
(local)
hot water transp
el.transf.
ng burner
transp
stationary
appliances
heating
Transition to Large Scale Use of Hydrogen
Choices of technology and infrastructure under
path dependence, feedback and nonlinearity




Energy systems in transition. (Causality)
Value chains. (Equal comparison). Barriers and bottlenecks.
Competition based. (Meet end-user need)
System dynamics. (System thinking and modeling for a
complex world)
 Focus: how to achieve change, and effects of change.
 Required policy making to develop a client base for hydrogen
investments. (Sustainability)
 Business opportunities (identify feed forward mechanisms).
K.GETHER 7/12
Learning
Curves
Non
renewables
oil
ng
Electric drive train
Wind
Sun
nuclear
lq st
Fuel Cell
refining
lq transp
ng transp lgt
reforming
coal
h transp
electrolysis
generating
electrolysis
el transp
sun
Renewables
(central)
K.GETHER 8/12
ng st
ref/h st
h st
lq ICE hyb
lq RFC
ng ICE
ng ICE hyb
ng RFC
transp
FC
El
lht
let
hydro
wind
lq ICE
bio wind sun
Renewables
(local)
hot water transp
RFC
FC
el.transf.
stationary
el.transf.
lq burner
heating
el.transf.
ng burner
appliances
lq ICE
Emissions
Non
renewables
oil
ng
lq ICE hyb
lq RFC
lq st
refining
lq transp
ng transp lgt
reforming
coal
nuclear
h transp
electrolysis
generating
let
hydro
wind
sun
Renewables
(central)
K.GETHER 9/12
transp
lht
electrolysis
el transp
ng st
ref/h st
h st
ng ICE
ng ICE hyb
ng RFC
FC
El
bio wind sun
Renewables
(local)
hot water transp
RFC
FC
el.transf.
stationary
el.transf.
lq burner
heating
el.transf.
ng burner
appliances
Path dependence and value over time
VALUE
Decision
K.GETHER 10/12
2003
TIME
Main points:
 Including positive feedbacks when considering how to prepare
for the future, altogether alter the understanding of policy
measures and policy making
 It is possible to include positive feedbacks in complex
modeling
 It is not a choice whether to model or not, we all have a mental
model of how things work. The choice is how we model.
 Appropriate methodology should be applied for the problem at
hand.
K.GETHER 11/12
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