Leadership Problem Solving
Creates More Problems than it
Solves.
The Ambiguity Advantage
David Wilkinson
Centre i
RAF Leadership Conference
2007
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The Book
2007
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Ambiguous Decisions
• A look at problem
solving success in
ambiguous situations
• 161 Leaders in 42
organisations
• 2001 – 2007
2007
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Ambiguity
Chaos
Risk
Uncertain
Ambiguity
Where the
problem or
solution or path
is not known
Vague
2007
Complexity
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Leader’s Problem Solving
42 organisations between 2001 – 2007
Wilkinson 2007
Managers
Team
Members
161
Leaders
Peers
Direct
Reports
2007
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Leaders Views
• 96.2% (155 of 161) of
leaders said that their
problem solving was
successful.
• Any failures they said,
came from somewhere
or someone else.
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Every one else’s view
• 81% of leader problem
solving failed / got
ditched…
or result in unintended
consequences so severe
that they were worse or
as worse as the original
problem.
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8 out of 10 cats
• 8 out of 10 leadership
decisions / solutions
didn’t resolve the
issue*
• Less than 4% of leaders
considered that their
thinking and actions
contributed to the
failure situation
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Why?
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Two Faced
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Processing
Cognition
Senses
Outside world
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The
Ambiguity
Pretzel
Increasing certainty / clarity /
Increasing ambiguity
/ risk & uncertainty
knowledge & order
Control models
Close coupled
C&E
Risk
Emergent /
complexity models
The Paradox of
Certainty
Certainty /
minimum
ambiguity
Total Ambiguity
Paradox
Loose coupled
C&E
Chaos
Breakdown of
relationship >
Cause & Effect
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Abmgiiuty and our brinas
I tihnk taht you shulod be albe raed tihs wihuott too mcuh
trubole. It is vrey stnarge taht wehn you trun aournd the
cneter letetrs of wrods you can stlil raed tehm eailsy.
Amgiibuty gtes caclenled out by the biran wehn it is clsoe to a
reiltay we unredtsnad. Tihs can be a prbolem as wlel as a
uesufl phnemonena.
Waht haepnps is taht our biran makes, waht is knwon as
‘brdignig inrefneecs’,
It lokos for paetrtns and tehn tires to mkae sesne of waht it
fidns bsaed on waht we alerady konw. Hoewveer it can go
worgng! Esepiclaly in totlaly new siuttaoins. The biran wlil
try to imopse a ptaetrn whcih is eihter sipmly oudttaed or
jsut plian wrnog.
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Rty siht….
I kihtn hatt shti udlosh eb a elltit erdarh ot
edra sa I avhe exdim het teterls pu orme
hhciw sakem ti a tol daherr ot erda. Hawt hist
emns si hatt mose eoppel illw eigv pu ude ot
eht velle fo itimagyub ti treacse ofr emth. Dod
s’itn ti ?
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Psychological Inertia
Aka
paradigm
paralysis
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Paradigm Paralysis
The fog of war lessons
learnt by Robert S.
McNamara
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2007
Cooperative
Leadership
Mode Four
Mode Three
Technical
Leadership
Mode Two
Mode One
Modes of Leadership
Collaborative
Leadership
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Generative
Leadership
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Technical Leadership (Mode
1)
• Good at
• Struggles with
– Following ‘characterised’
procedures
– Making incremental
changes
– Postponing reward
– Staying safe
– Standardising
procedures
– Leading from the front
– Detail
2007
–
–
–
–
–
Risk & Ambiguity
Innovation
Diversity
Non standard thinking
Empathy and emotional
intelligence
– Co-operation and
collaboration
– Strategic concepts (big
picture)
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Mode 1 responses to
Ambiguity
1. There is only one certainty
1. Be certain about your certainty
2. Do something else
1. Displacement behaviour
2. Flight behaviour
3. If in doubt fool yourself
1. Denial
2. Create a new certainty
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Cooperative Leadership (Mode
2)
• Good at
• Struggles with
– Minimising risks
– Using others as
resources
– Team focus
– Solving cooperative
problems
– Democracy
– Listening
– Task Focus
– Diversity
2007
–
–
–
–
Taking risks
Conflict
Weighing up the facts
Competing values and
ideas
– High innovation
– Lack of change
– Too much change
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Mode 2 responses to
ambiguity
• Heightened awareness of negative emotional reactions
to ambiguity
• Moves to reduce discomfort
• Conflict = discomfort
• Tries to reduce ambiguity and conflict by
–
–
–
–
Simplification
Appeals to cohesion and loyalty (the team)
Cooperative strategies
Behavioural frameworks etc. that promote compliance
• Creation of rules / policy – reduction of uncertainty
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Collaborative Leadership (Mode
3)
• Good at
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
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• Struggles with
Aligning values
Equality
Meetings
Relationships
Feel good
Empathy
Emotional Intelligence
Consensus
Exploring risk
Greater levels of ambiguity
– Leadership
– Lack of productivity
– Difficult people
• Individualists
– Breaking out of COWDUNG
– Lack of change
– Non conventional thinking
at first
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Mode 3 reactions to
ambiguity
•
•
•
•
Recognise the ambiguity
Adapt to the situation
Interest in change (of others)
Will seek recourse to the consensus of the
group/team
• Will try to ‘solve’ ambiguity to restore the
natural order of things
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Generative Leadership (Mode 4)
• Good at
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
2007
• Struggles with
Working with Ambiguity
Complexity
Finding opportunity
Agility and change
Speed
Innovation
Focus
Using experts
Defining problems
Emotional Resilience
Learning and unlearning –
shifting paradigm
– Working with certainty
– Lack of change & stability
– People who need time
• To understand
• Change
• Produce things
– Procedures, policy and
rules
– Incremental change
– Lack of speed and agility
– ‘Small talk’
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Mode 4 reactions to
ambiguity
• Very happy with the existence of ambiguity –
worries if it’s not present
• Looks for emergent properties and
opportunities inherent in situation
• Spends lots of time on problem definition and
trying to discover reality
• Uses diversity of thinking and approaches to
gain the advantage
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A problem of definition
The elevators are
too slow
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Frame 1
Technical Make it faster
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Frame 2
Co-operate – what
solutions?
Best – pulley
gearing
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Frame 3
Collaboration –
many Project
teams many
inventions
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Frame 4
• Most people spend 90%
of effort working on
solution
• Generative spend 20%
of effort working on
solution.
• 80% on the problem
definition
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Albert Einstein
“It's not that I'm so smart,
it's just that I stay with
problems longer”
“I spend most of my
time just trying to find
out what the problem
is.”
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Problem definition
The elevators are too slow
They say that the
elevators are too slow
They say think that the
elevators are too slow
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They think the lift is too slow
1. Install mirrors $38
2. Level progress
indication
3. Bigger
compartments
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Frames
1. Thinking frame = how
we see
2. How we see = what we
see
3. What we see = the
problems we perceive
4. The problems we
perceive = the
problem we solve
2007
Solution
Frame
Problem
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Vision
Reality
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[email protected]
www.centrei.org
David Wilkinson
Centre I
2007
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