BONDIC Marketing Report Vol.3
The Relationship Between Announcement and
Word of Mouth Influences Box Office Revenue
～“Your Name” Wins Game of “RT” ～
December 2, 2016
0
Introduction
In August 2016, a movie “Your Name” directed by Makoto
Shinkai was released. It has been a hot topic before its release
in a variety of media. Now it is reaching the second place of
Japanese national box office revenue ranking of all time.
This huge popularity motivated us to analyze things that
influence box office revenue. In this analysis, we picked up
“Shin Godzilla” directed by Hideaki Anno, a live-action film
based on a popular manga “Shigatsu wa kimi no uso,” and “A
Silent Voice,” which is long-awaited to be a live-action film to
compare with “Your Name” so that we will be able to know the
characteristics of box office revenue.
These three movies for comparison are taken under the
conditions of the following: some movie released around the
same time, live-action movie based on manga, or an animation
film.
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1
Details of Data
・Target Period：July 25, 2016 – November 13, 2016
・Movies of interest:
Movie
Your Name
Shin Godzilla
Shigatu wa Kimi no Uso
A Silent Voice
Release date
August 26, 2016
July 29, 2016
September 10, 2016
September 17, 2016
• TV appearance; How many minutes each franchise has appeared on
TV. This index is calculated by using TV broadcasting analysis
tool(excluding profit-purpose appearance such as commercials).**
• # of posts on SNS; the number of posts talked about each franchise
on SNS aggregated by using SNS analysis tool(excluding profitpurpose posts such as advertising).*** Each post is divided into 3
types: positive, negative and neutral.
** TV data mining system “Meta TV (http://mdata.tv/metatv/)”
*** SNS analysis tool “Communication Explorer ( https://cocomimi.jp/)”
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2
Analysis ①-1: Comparison of Box Office Revenue
“Your Name” sweeps others!
Weekly box office revenue
Gross box office revenue
3,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
18,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
16,000,000,000
14,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
12,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
500,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
0
1
2
Shin Godzilla
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Your Name
A Silent Voice
週間興行収入
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
5,000,000,000
0
Here, we compared a weekly box office revenue and a gross box office
revenue based on the week number after each movie is released.
You may notice “Your Name” overwhelms other movies at a glance. However,
because the number of theatres the movies are shown is largely different, we
then compared a weekly box office revenue per theatre for the first week after
release.
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3
Analysis ①-2: Comparison of Box Office Revenue; A weekly box office
revenue per theatre for the first week
Still “Your Name” defeats others!
Weekly box office revenue per theatre for the first week after release
Your Name Shin Godzilla
¥4.3 million 2.4 million
A Silent Voice Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
2.3 million
0.8 million
As we indicated in the previous page, these are each film’s weekly box office
revenue per theatre for the first week after release. It is clear that “Your Name”
still records a way larger revenue than others.
Yet our focus is on the trend of each movie’s weekly box office revenue, not
the ranking. This will be shown from the next page.
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Analysis ①-3: Comparison of box office revenue; Transition
Is “Your Name” really “a winner-takes-all?”
Trend of a weekly box office revenue (index)
250.0%
Week-over-week box office revenue (3rd week-)
70.0%
60.0%
200.0%
50.0%
150.0%
40.0%
30.0%
100.0%
20.0%
50.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1
2
3
4
Shin Godzilla
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Your Name
A Silent Voice
週間興行収入
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
5,000,000,000
0
To accurately compare the movies’ weekly box office revenue, let the revenue for the first week be a benchmark of
100%. The graph on the left shows the ratio of the box office revenue for each week to this benchmark.
Here, we see characteristics of each movie comparing with “Your Name.” “Shin Godzilla” has a similar trend of
decreasing although its weekly box office revenue for the second week is way lower. “A Silent Voice” gets almost the
same weekly box office revenue for the second week but the trend of decreasing is different. Finally, weekly box office
revenue of “Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso” for its second and third week increases but sharply decreases afterward.
From these perspectives, we cannot say that “Your Name” keeps its place beyond the other films throughout the
target period.
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Summary ①
At this point, it is unveiled that even though the amount “Your Name” gains
is huge, the way gross box office revenue of it increases is not that different
from others. Specifically, “Shin Godzilla” shows a similar transition of decreasing
to “Your Name” proving that it is not a loser.
In addition, the graph of their weekly box office revenue shows that the
revenue becomes highest at the second week after release and then goes down.
In other words, why “Your Name” seems to be overwhelming is its weekly box
office revenue for the first two weeks is way large compared with the others;
from the third week, its revenue decreases as the other three movies do. The
public may think the weekly box office revenue of “Your Name” is soaring but in
fact, that for the first two weeks is really huge and encourages media to flock to
introduce the film, making such an image.
Given these results, let us narrow our focus on “Your Name” and “Shin
Godzilla.” Analyses from the next page will tell you the reason why these two
movies compete well.
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6
Analysis ②-1: Transition of TV Appearance After Release
TV appearance of “Your Name” is soaring
TV appearance after release (min)
Correlation coefficient of weekly
box office revenue and TV appearance
Your Name
Shin Godzilla
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
A Silent Voice
500
450
400
350
-0.46
0.03
0.65
0.83
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
Shin Godzilla
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Your Name
A Silent Voice
週間興行収入
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
5,000,000,000
0
The graph above shows that the amount of minutes “Your Name” becomes a
topic on TV increases as week passes. The curve of the line looks like the
increasing movement of the movie which the public may image.
Additionally, correlation coefficient of weekly box office revenue and the
amount of TV appearance indicates that the revenue of “Your Name” decreases
as TV appearance increases and that of “Shin Godzilla” is not that influenced by
how many minutes it is introduced on TV.
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Analysis ②-2: Transition of The Number of Posts on SNS After Release
# of posts about “Your Name” on SNS is on the downside
Correlation coefficient of weekly
box office revenue and # of posts on SNS
# of posts on SNS after release
Your Name
Shin Godzilla
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
A Silent Voice
30,000
25,000
20,000
0.95
0.96
0.74
0.91
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
2
3
4
Shin Godzilla
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Your Name
A Silent Voice
週間興行収入
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
5,000,000,000
0
Here we can see the amount of posts on SNS and correlation coefficient between it and
weekly box office revenue. In contrast to the amount of TV appearance, the amount tend to
decrease after release and remind us of the shape of the transition of weekly ox office
revenue introduced on page 3.
Correlation coefficient also indicates a higher relationship with weekly box office revenue,
proving that posts on SNS affect more on the revenue than TV appearance. Thus, our focus
from the next page is on details of the relationship between box office revenue and SNS.
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The first analysis is the relationship between
box office revenue and SNS after release.
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Analysis ③-1: Rate of Retweet (After Release)
*Rate of retweet = times of being retweeted per post
Retweet supports box office revenue!
Your Name
Shin Godzilla
A Silent Voice
Shigatsu wa
Kimi no Uso
Media-motivated
# of posts retweeted
298,009 207,849
38,054
13,146
Movie-motivated*
# of posts retweeted
277,995 275,677
62,940
15,530
Media-motivated
Rate of RT
Movie-motivated*
Rate of RT
*posts by people watched the movie
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.1
0.5
1.0
0.4
0.3
From several analyses, we found that the rate of retweet (ROR) influences the box office revenue of
“Your Name” and “Shin Godzilla.” ROR is how many times a post on SNS (mainly a post on twitter) is
retweeted in average.
As figures above indicated, these two films get much larger ROR and the amount of RT than others after
release. It can be said that ROR mainly moderate the decreasing trend of their weekly box office revenue.
Besides, “Shin Godzilla” has higher movie-motivated ROR than others, telling its degree of satisfaction is high.
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The second analysis is the relationship between
box office revenue and SNS before release
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Analysis ③-2: Rate of Retweet (Before Release)
*Rate of retweet = times of being retweeted per post
RT contributes to early gains!
Media-motivated
# of posts retweeted
Media-motivated
Rate of RT
Shigatsu wa
Kimi no Uso
Your Name
Shin Godzilla
220,966
66,436
93,889
71,338
5.1
1.4
3.7
3.8
A Silent Voice
Next is the amount of RT and ROR before release. These specifically
influence box office revenue in early period of weeks after release. Please
keep in mind that these numbers apply to the period before release, there is
not “movie-motivated” indices.
“Your Name” obviously wins. As indicated previously, this may affect its
large box office revenue for the first two weeks. On the other hand, “Shin
Godzilla,” which gets a large amount of RT and ROR after release, shows the
lowest number among all the movies.
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Analysis ③-3: Breakdown of Original Posts Retweeted
Before release, it’s WEB!
Media-motivated posts retweeted before release;
composition ratio of “media”
100%
8%
90%
2%
3%
7%
1%
1%
2%
1%
1%
80%
70%
60%
63%
58%
67%
65%
50%
40%
Other
2%
30%
6%
31%
29%
31%
21%
WEB
40%
20%
Radio
0%
0%
Your Name
Magazines
100%
80%
Newspapers
60%
20%
10%
聲の形
Advertisements
Shin Godzilla
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
A Silent Voice
TV
Then the question is what “media” means. This graph shows composition
ratio of media that motivated people to give original posts on SNS retweeted
before release. As you can see, all movies mainly offer their promotions by WEB.
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Analysis ③-4: Rate of Retweet; Breakdown of Media-Motivated Original Posts Retweeted Before Release
Promotions by means other than WEB rises ROR!
Media-motivated posts retweeted before release;
rate of retweet by media
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
Shin Godzilla
週間興
Your Name
行収入
2.0
0.0
WEB
TV
Radio
Other
Newspapers
Magazines
Advertisements
4,000,000,000
Shigatsu wa
2,000,000,000
Kimi no 0Uso
1
A Silent Voice
Furthermore, the graph above shows ROR by media that motivated people to give original posts on SNS retweeted
before release. The previous page results WEB is a main medium for promotion before release. However, all movies’ RORs
triggered by WEB are almost the same level except for “Shin Godzilla.” “Your Name” gets the highest RORs for almost all
other kinds of media. This means that the film offers promotions in a variety of ways especially radio and other
advertisements.
Therefore, it seems that ROR of posts motivated by media other than WEB makes the difference.
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14
Extra Analysis ④-1: Composition Ratio of Posts on SNS Before and After Release
People talk more about story after release!
Composition ratio of main topics of
posts on SNS
Before release
After release
Let us talk about some extra
analyses from now. These are
Story
Director
Your Name
Director
Story
Picture
Music
Picture
Music
charts that show main topics of
posts on SNS before and after
release.
People tend to talk more about
Story
Story
Shin Godzilla
Picture
Director
Picture
Director
Music
Music
movies’ story after release. They
may be impressed by what they
watch and cannot help posting on
Story
Music
Music
Story
SNS.
From such perspective, “Your
Shigatsu wa
Kimi no Uso
Name” has well-balanced main
Picture
Picture
topics making it to be flexible to
many kinds of media.
Director
Director
A Silent Voice
Story
Music
Story
Music
Picture
Picture
Also, topics other than story
seems to be important after release.
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Extra Analysis ④-2: Rate of Retweet; Breakdown of Media-Motivated Original Posts Retweeted Before
and After Release
*Rate of retweet = times of being retweeted per post
Shin Godzilla competes well after release!
Media-motivated posts retweeted before and after release;
rate of retweet by media
12.0
5.0
10.0
4.0
8.0
3.0
6.0
2.0
4.0
1.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
Before Release
In page 14, we saw ROR before
Other Advertisements
WEB
6.0
release by media. In this page, let’s
compare it to ROR after release.
“Your Name,” “Shigatsu wa Kimi
no Uso,” and “A Silent Voice” have
Before Release
After Release
After Release
Newspapers
TV
4.5
5.0
4.0
4.5
decreases after release. The only
4.0
3.5
movie which ROR tend to increase
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
after release is “Shin Godzilla.”
2.5
2.0
higher ROR before release and it
2.0
1.5
In addition, “Shin Godzilla”
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
Before Release
Before Release
After Release
After Release
SNS that is indicated by its high
Magazines
Radio
watchers are more likely to post on
4.5
25.0
movie-motivated ROR. Thus, we can
4.0
20.0
3.5
say that promotions and degree of
3.0
15.0
2.5
satisfaction for “Shin Godzilla” make
2.0
10.0
1.5
the highest achievement after release.
1.0
5.0
0.5
0.0
Shin Godzilla
0.0
Before Release
After Release
Before Release
After Release
Your Name
A Silent Voice
週間興行収入
Shigatsu wa Kimi no Uso
5,000,000,000
0
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Conclusion
Although the gross box office revenue of “Your Name” is massive, its transition
is not that different compared to other three sample movies. How the movie’s
weekly box office revenue increases we have been imaged so far seems in fact to
the same as the shape of increasing in the amount of TV appearance of it.
BY putting all analyses together, the important points to increase box office
revenue are the following;
1. Weekly box office revenue for the first two weeks after release.
2. To make decreasing trend of weekly box office revenue from the third week
as moderate as possible.
What influences this weekly box office revenue for the first two weeks (1) is
the rate of retweet for posts on SNS motivated by media. WEB is a main way for
promotion yet how effective you promote your movie through other kinds of
media will make a huge difference.
ROR also moderate decreasing trend of weekly box office revenue after two
weeks passed (2).
“Shin Godzilla” is released almost the same timing as “Your Name.” Its ROR is
the highest after release but is the lowest before release. What if this film got
much more RT before release? And what if it kept such a high ROR after release?
This movie would get much larger box office revenue for the first two weeks and
would become a bigger hit.
※Do not hesitate to contact us for further explanation of this report.
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17