OMG! – It Happened on My Watch!
Planning for Low Probability – High
Impact Events
Doug Haines
Owner, Haines Security Solutions
Overview
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Traditional Risk Management Methodologies
Five Mega Events Expected in the Foreseeable Future
Review of Unconventional Crisis and the Readiness Factor
“Off-set” or “Well Banking”
Setting Parameters or “Triggers”
Some Examples
Conclusion
Question & Answers
Traditional Risk Management Methodologies
• Based on probability
– that the threat/hazards
has the ability to disrupt
service or mission
– And, that it will occur
• Plan accordingly
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…Methodologies (cont.)
• When catastrophic
events happen, leaders
say, “oh, we never
thought that would
happen here”.
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Events Fall Into Two Categories
• Conventional
– Ones we’ve planned for
– Low impact
• Unconventional
– Ones we haven’t
planned for
– Or if we did, they are still
outside of our realm of
capabilities to react to
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Severe Novelty
• Oso Mudslide
• MH 370
• Atlanta Snow storm
2014
• BP Gulf Oil Spill
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Unconventional Crisis
• Event so rare or a
predictable event that
has the potential for
extreme severity
• Today’s societies are
extremely complex, so
when systems fail, the
results are catastrophic
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…Crisis (cont.)
• Community-wide
Destabilizing Events
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Joplin, MO Tornado
Yarnell, AZ Wildfire
Super Storm Sandy
Ferguson, MO
Five Mega Events Expected in the Foreseeable
Future
• Mudslide in Washington
State
• East Coast Tsunami
• Mid-west Earthquake
• Above Category 5
Hurricane
• Catastrophic Climate
Change
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Current Mind Set of Senior Leaders
• Write the plan and
follow it
• Senior decision makers
are not effectively
exposed to uncertainty
and chaos of major
disasters through the
exercise environment
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Add in the Readiness Factor
• Must think outside the
box
• Train differently
• Plan differently
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…Factor (cont.)
• Train through failure
• Plan not for probability
or predictability but for
impact
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Paradigm Shift:
• The community at large
will require thinking,
learning and planning
that differentiates
between
PREPAREDNESS and
READINESS
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Plan for “WORST CASE”
• Worst cases are a
different species
• Will require a different
mid-set
– Resiliency
– Limit impact on people
and the places where
they live and work
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“Off-Set” or “Well Banking”
• Saving for a “rainy day”
– With the intention of
using it
• Municipal Bonds
• Corporate investment
incentives
• Government budgets
– Corp operating budgets
– Joint Public – Private
Ventures
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doug
How do we do that?
• Implement legislature
– City/county ordnances
– Public policies
– Laws
• Set parameters for
implementation
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Planning for the future
while solving today’s
problems.
Setting Parameters or “Triggers”
• Unified Facilities Criteria
(UFC)
– New construction
– Existing buildings
• Change in usage
• Major renovations
• Increase in floor space
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Established to
mitigate the
terrorist threat by
minimizing damage
to inhabited
facilities in an effort
to reduce mass
casualties
…”Triggers” (cont.)
• Crime Prevention
Through Environmental
Design (CPTED)
– Changing composition of
neighborhoods
• Decentralize poverty
– New construction or
Major housing
renovation projects
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Established to
reduce criminal
activity in
neighborhoods by
creating an
environment that
thwarts their
activities
• Major renovation after
event when 50% of system
is damaged or destroyed
• Scheduled renovation
projects when 50% or more
of the existing
building/infrastructure is
being upgraded
• During pre-planning of new
neighborhoods, facilities, or
utility systems
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After a Major Event
• When 50% of system is
destroyed or damaged
– Replacing infrastructure
– Rebuilding
neighborhoods
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… Event (cont.)
• Changed the city
ordinance
• Redesigned area along
the Red River banks
Grand Forks, North Dakota
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…Event (cont.)
• Changed city ordnance
• Storm cellars in public
places
Moore, Oklahoma
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…Event (cont.)
• FI-PI-LI highway
Pisa, Italy
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Planned Renovation Projects
• When 50% or greater is
being replaced or
upgraded
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…Phase (cont.)
• California
– Earthquake laws
requiring certain
building codes to be met
– Some existing
infrastructure is being
retrofitted
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…Event (cont.)
Rotterdam, the Netherlands
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During Planning Phase
• As part of a master plan
• Incorporate standards
as, “that’s just what we
do here”.
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… Phase (cont.)
Singapore City, Singapore
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Conclusion
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Traditional Risk Management Methodologies
5 Mega Events
Unconventional Crisis & the Readiness Factor
“Off-set” or “Well Banking”
Setting Parameters or “”Triggers”
References
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Leadership In Unconventional Crisis, Dr. Erwan Lagadec
Survival: How Being Prepare Can Keep You and Your Family Safe, LTG/USA Ret Russell
Honore
DaVinci’s Horse #6: Unconventional Crisis, Narrative Rationality, Sense-making and the
Readiness Factor, CDR/USN Ret Ed Beakley
When There Is No Cavalry, Douglas Himberger, David Sulek, and Stephen Krill Jr.
The Self-Designing High-Reliability Organization , Gene I. Rochlin, Todd R. La Porte, and
Karlene H. Roberts
Anticipating Rude Surprises: Reflections on “Crisis Management” Without End, Todd R. La
Porte
Mission Improbable and Worst Cases, Lee Clarke
11-12 March 2015 Catastrophic/Unconventional Crisis; Leadership In Complex Crisis
Response – Reagan Presidential Library, Simi Valley CA
Final Thoughts
While we might not be able to prevent
an unconventional event from
occurring, we certainly can reduce its
effects by what we do today.
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Questions & Answers
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Contact Information
• Doug Haines
• +1 (805) 509-8655
• [email protected]
• www.hainessecuritysolutions.com
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