Complex Adaptive systems
GRS-21306
Introduction
Arnold Bregt
Introduction
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Shrimp farming in Vietnam
Mekong Delta, Vietnam
Different systems for Shrimp farming
Extensive
Different systems for Shrimp farming
Improved Extensive
Different systems for Shrimp farming
Intensive
Source: Michiel Oliemans
Different systems for shrimp farming
Integrated Mangrove Shrimp
Source: Michiel Oliemans
Two Communes in Vietnam Mekong Delta
Interviews and participatory mapping
Similar conditions different developments
Characteristics
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Number of households:
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Differences
1825 vs 1443
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One commune ->
intensive shrimps without
trees.
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Other commune-> mixed
systems with mangroves
Bio-physical condition's
comparable
Development towards
intensive shrimp
Reflection
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Initial conditions
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Interactions between farmers and role of hero’s
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Sequence of activities
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Adaptive capacity of all stakeholders
With as a result
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Different emergent behaviour of these two
communes
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Example of a complex adaptive system:
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Interactions between agents
Sensitive to initial conditions
Path dependency
Open systems
Adaptive behaviour of agents
Contents Presentation
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System thinking in Wageningen
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Complex adaptive systems
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Complex adaptive systems and SDI
Scientific schools
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Reductionism ( e.g. Rene Descartes)
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components
Holism (e.g. Aristotle)
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system
Question
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What is the science view approach in Wageningen?
Thinking in systems is popular, e.g
Climate system
Agricultural system
Transport system
Social system
System thinking
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System consists of:
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Components
Relation between components
Boundary
Systems are human constructs
Framing systems
Non-linear relations
Bio-physical components
Social & Bio-physical/technical
components
Linear relations
Framing systems
Complex
Systems
Complex
Adaptive
Systems
“Simple”
Systems
Adaptive
Systems
Simple Systems
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Characteristics:
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A few components
Closed systems
Well defined interactions
Behaviour:
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Predictable
Falling ball
Adaptive systems
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Characteristics:
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Respond to changes in
the environment
Feedback loops
Behaviour:
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Respond in predictable
way
Driving a car
Complex systems
Land sliding
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Characteristics:
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Interaction between
components non-linear
Feedback loops
Tipping points
Behaviour:
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Sudden, emerging events
Complex adaptive systems
Land-use system
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Characteristics:
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Multi level
Open systems
Non-linear interaction
Learning
Behaviour:
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“Dynamic stability”
Emergence
Scientific publications (Scopus, 2-12-2015)
Complex Systems
Complex Adaptive Systems
# 45,666
# 2,473
“Simple” Systems
Adaptive Systems
# 11,846,235
# 24,276
Question
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Can you give examples of pro’s and con’s of both
approaches?
Reflection
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The focus of science is on a “simple” system
description of the real world
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Understandable from both a science and human point
of view:
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Ockham's razor heuristic
Reductionism
Bias for linear cause-effect relations
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Our mind likes to simplify (Kahneman)
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Kahneman, thinking fast and slow
Reflection
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But, our real-world problems are not simple. Quite
often they have:
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Many components, with partly unknown relations
Adaptation takes place
History (path) is important
Open
But How?
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Complex adaptive system (CAS) view:
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Theory is relative young (1990, Santa Fe)
No consensus on definitions, characteristics
Interdisciplinary field
CAS in practice:
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Last 10 years
Agent-based modelling (ABM)
Design principles
Complex Adaptive System
Complex Adaptive System is a dynamic network of
many agents (which may represent cells, species,
individuals, firms, nations) acting in parallel and
constantly, and reacting to what the other
agents are doing (Waldrop, 1992).
Complex adaptive system
Source: Complexity systems institute
Publications
Scopus, 2016
Complex Adaptive Ssystem
Scopus, 2016
CAS Features
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Components
Complexity
Sensitive to initial conditions
Openness
Unpredictability
(Scale independence)
CAS behaviours
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Adaptability
Self organization
Non-linear behaviour
Feedback loop mechanism
Adaptability
Example: Self organization
Non-linear behaviour
Feedback loop
CAS as a research topic
CAS application in Wageningen
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CAS is the concept/ theory
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ABM (Agent Based Modelling) is the implementation)
An example application
An example of CAS in practice
H. Meyer, A. Bregt, E. Dammers, J.
Edelenbos, 2014 (NL) 2015 (Eng)
The Dutch South-west delta
A detailed actor and interaction analysis
Historical analysis (path dependency)
Scenario analysis
Actor interaction
Towards a Robust, Adaptive Framework
Flood defence is not a dike, but a zone
Towards a resilient and adaptive urbanized delta
Complex adaptive systems and SDI
Hypothesis:
CAS characteristics and behaviors can also be found in
SDIs.
Dutch SDI
Structure of SDI of Flanders (Part of belgium)
SDI as CAS (assignment)
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Please read the article from your reader
“Spatial Data Infrastructures as Complex
Adaptive Systems” and analyze your SDI
case using the 10 features and behaviours
mentioned in this article.