Tonia Pöppler / pixelio.de
The Sydney Morning Herald
RSA .org
SECURENV – Future security threats and the
environment: from bioengineering to environmental crime
Essen Security Innovation Symposium
Irina Comardicea | adelphi
Essen, 5 October 2010
Agenda
1. The SECURENV project
a. Goals
b. Preliminary findings
2. State of Foresight process
a. Delphi Survey
b. Scenario-building workshop
2
The SECURENV Project
“Assessment of environmental accidents
from a security perspective”
Funding: EU FP7 “Coordination and support” action
Duration: 2 years May 2009 – April 2011
Consortium of 3 Partners:
• Geonardo Environmental Technologies Ltd. – Hungary
• adelphi – Germany
• Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) – Sweden
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The SECURENV Project – Goals
Review and analyse past environmental accidents,
catastrophes and events
&
Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment
as well as the technological opportunities
Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for
developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism
Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers
and relevant expert and practitioner communities
4
SECURENV Inspiration
5
SECURENV Inspiration
From accidents to intentional attacks
Manipulating the environment is not new
‘Security’ and ‘environment’ linked in space and time
• Agriculture, animal domestication, plant cultivation: foundations for
complex societies
• Environment as a target or a weapon during times of war
6
SECURENV Selected Findings
Environmental crime  Environmental terrorism
“Forest Jihad”?
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SECURENV Selected Findings
Agroterrorism
Increased vulnerability
Open access infrastructure for food and water
Intense farming and livestock rearing
Damages to food supply, health, authority
Hoaxes!
University of Pennsylvania
Kansas Farm Bureau
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SECURENV Selected Findings
Synthetic Biology
Artificially created organisms, etc.
Exponential technological advances
Biohacking and democratisation of knowledge
Unknown consequences and poor
system understanding
Environmental Impacts
Hoaxes!
unintentional
action
additional
intentional
action
Low system
understanding
High system
understanding
Human Intervention
Source: after Matthews and Turner, 2009
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The SECURENV Project – Goals
Review and analyse past environmental accidents,
catastrophes and events
&
Identify novel and emerging threats on the environment
as well as the technological opportunities
Develop an appropriate foresight methodology for
developing potential scenarios involving environmental terrorism
Provide policy recommendations to European policy-makers
and the intelligence community
10
SECURENV Foresight
Why a Foresight?
Future challenges and changes can come from
abrupt shocks as well as long-term trends
Shocks can be the product of long-term trends  can be anticipated
 SECURENV uses foresight methods and scenario-building techniques
“a systematic, participatory, future-intelligence-gathering and
medium-to-long-term vision building process”
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SECURENV – Delphi Survey
Background
Research
April 2010
Delphi
Round 1
June 2010
Delphi
Round 2
Nov 2010
Scenario
Workshops
Jan 2011
Final
Workshop
• Based on the background research, brainstorming
• Used as input to the scenario workshop
• Included more than 740 experts in round 1
and more than 120 in round 2
• 12 questions covering a range of topics
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SECURENV – Delphi Survey
Background
Research
April 2010
Delphi
Round 1
June 2010
Delphi
Round 2
Nov 2010
Scenario
Workshops
Jan 2011
Final
Workshop
• 3-4 November, Stockholm
• Around 40 experts from environment and security fields
• Looking at Delphi topics in the context of 3 established European
security scenarios (FORESEC), among which:
• Environmental infrastructures
• Geoengineering technologies
• Genetically modified organisms
• Expect the output of priority challenges for the EU and the creation
of 2-3 SECURENV-specific scenarios
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Thank you!
SECURENV
adelphi
Balazs Bodo | Project Coordinator
Irina Comardicea | Project Manager
Geonardo, Budapest Hungary
adelphi, Berlin Germany
www.securenv.eu
[email protected]
www.adelphi.de
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