Does Scotland Want a
Different Kind of Brexit?
Strathclyde University/ScotCen Social Research
Senior Fellow, ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’
whatukthinks.org/eu
@whatukthinks
whatscotlandthnks.org @whatscotsthink
The Difference
70
62
60
53.3
46.7
50
38
40
30
20
10
0
Scotland
England & Wales
Remain
Leave
Post Referendum Developments
• June: Sturgeon puts IndyRef2 back on the table
• Dec: SG proposes UK/Scotland stays in single
market and retains freedom of movement
• Jan: UKG proposes end to freedom of movement
and leaving single market
• Mar: FM proposes indyref2; PM says ‘not now’
• Apr: UKG rejects differential Brexit for Scotland
Questions
• What Kind of Brexit does Scotland
want?
• Should Brexit lead to Indyref2?
Perceptions of Consequences of
Brexit
60
55
47
50
40
41
40
34
50
39
34
34
33
27
30
22
20
10
0
Influence Lower Economy worse Unemployment
Higher
Scotland
NHS Better
Identity
Threatened
Immigration
Lower
England & Wales
Source: 2016 British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 9. ‘Identity threatened’ refers to impact of EU membership.
Previous Brexit Polling - 1
45
42
40
35
30
25
20
22
24
19 20
16
22
15
15
10
7
5
4
0
Strongly Agree
Agree
EU auto right to live/work in Scotland
Source: Panelbase Jan 2017
Neither
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
EU firms sell as easily in Scotland as at home
Previous Brexit Polling - 2
38
40
35
34
30
25
20
20
15
8
10
5
0
Limit freedom of
movement
Source: YouGov Mar 17
Being in single market
Neither
Don't Know
Britain on The Supposed Trade-Off
70
66
60
52
50
40
30
51
49
49
48
44
40
37
33
45
37
3636
31
39
52
51
49
39
4243
44
41
40
35
28
20
10
0
Single Market
Limit Immigration
41
44
42
3637
32
33
40
36
The Data
• Respondents to ScotCen’s 2015 or 2016 Scottish Social
Attitudes, an annual face to face random probability
survey, who have agreed to do short follow-up surveys
by internet/phone
• Survey sent to 2,072 panellists; 859 successfully
interviewed between 5 February and 2 March
• Data weighted to reflect population profile and known
differential drop-out
• Recall EU referendum vote: Remain 66.5%
• Recall Indyref vote: No 52%
• Parallel GB-wide survey run at same time
Questioning Strategy
• Do not assume voters understand concepts such as
‘free trade’, ‘single market’, ‘customs union’ or
‘freedom of movement’
• Focus where possible on everyday practical
consequences - customs checks, passport checks,
mobile phone calls, etc.
• Do not presume that voters accept the trade-offs,
e.g. between free trade and limiting immigration,
that may be imposed by negotiators
Soft Brexit Items
• Allowing banks located in EU countries to provide services to people
living in Britain while allowing British banks to provide services to
people living in the EU
• Allowing companies based in the EU to sell goods and services freely in
Britain in return for allowing British companies to sell goods and
services freely in the EU
• Requiring British-owned airlines to follow EU rules that require them to
pay compensation to passengers who have been seriously delayed
• Britain continuing to follow EU regulations which set minimum
standards for the quality of the water at beaches where people swim
• Britain continuing to participate in EU programmes for funding crossnational university research
• Requiring British mobile phone companies to follow EU regulations that
limit what they can charge customers for calls made abroad
• Allowing boats from the EU to fish in British waters in return for
allowing British boats to fish in EU waters
Mostly Popular
100
93
90
75
80
75
73
72
65
70
60
52
50
40
31
30
20
10
3
10
11
Mobile
Charges
Bathing
Water
10
12
8
0
Free Trade
Airline Delays University
Research
In Favour
Against
Bank
Passporting
Common
Fisheries
Immigration and Borders
• Requiring people from the EU who want to come to live
here to apply to do so in the same way as people from
outside the EU
• Requiring people from Britain who want to live and work in
a EU country to apply to do so in the same way as anybody
else from outside the EU has to do.
• No longer allowing migrants from other EU countries to
claim any welfare benefits in Britain
• Reintroducing customs checks on people and goods coming
to Britain from the EU
On Immigration and Borders
80
72
70
65
64
59
60
50
40
28
30
20
17
22
22
10
0
New Expats
Customs Check
In Favour
New EU Migrants
Against
Migrant Welfare
Other Hard Brexit Items
• No longer requiring farmers in Britain to follow EU
regulations on the use of pesticides
• No longer allowing people from Britain who are
visiting a EU country to get health treatment for
free
• Ending the ability of the EU to determine the
minimum level of annual leave to which workers in
Britain are entitled
• Ending the ability of the EU to decide the maximum
number of hours people in Britain can be expected
to work
A Rather Softer Touch
60
50
40
46
44
36
49
47
38
31
30
30
20
10
0
Working Hours
Annual Leave
In Favour
Pesticide Regulation
Against
No Free Health
The Possible Trade-Off - 1
• It has been argued that when Britain leaves the EU, British firms
will only be allowed to continue to sell goods and services freely
to people in the EU if people from the EU are still free to come
here to live and work.
• Do you think Britain should or should not allow people from the
EU to freely come here to live and work in return for allowing
British firms to sell goods and services freely in the EU.
• Definitely should allow people from the EU to come here to live
and work
• Probably should allow people from the EU to come here to live
and work
• Probably should not allow people from the EU to come here to
live and work
• Definitely should not allow people from the EU to come here to
live and work
The Possible Trade-Off - 2
70
60
31
50
40
30
21
30
20
16
10
0
Should
Should Not
Definitely
Probably
Leave and Remain on Soft Issues
% in favour
100
95 92
90
83
80
80
70
60
60
79
78
62
59
68
59
61
50
56
40
40
30
20
10
0
Free Trade
Mobile
Charges
Bathing
Water
Airline Delays University
Research
Remain
Leave
Bank
Passporting
Common
Fisheris
Leave and Remain on Other Hard
Matters
% in favour
57
60
48
50
40
37
41
40
37
27
30
23
20
10
0
Working Hours
Annual Leave
Remain
No Free Health
Leave
Pesticide Regulation
Leave and Remain on Immigration
and Borders
% in favour
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
86
82
81
79
61
53
52
New Expats
Customs Check
Remain
New EU Migrants
Leave
49
Migrant Welfare
Leave/Remain Split Similar To Rest
of UK
% in favour
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
86
54
New Expats
86
82
58
54
Customs Check
Remain
Source: NatCen GB Mixed Model Panel Feb 2017
New EU Migrants
Leave
77
51
Migrant Welfare
Does Scotland Want Something
Different? – Soft
Issues
% in favour
100
90
93
88
75
80
70
71
75 73
73
68
72
67
65 65
60
60
52
50
40
30
20
10
0
Free Trade
Mobile
Charges
Bathing
Water
Airline Delays University
Research
Scotland
Britain
Bank
Passporting
Common
Fisheris
Does Scotland Want Something
Different? – Other Hard Issues
% in favour
60
50
53
46
44
45
37
40
30
30
31
35
20
10
0
Working Hours
Annual Leave
Scotland
No Free Health
Britain
Pesticide Regulation
Does Scotland Want Something
Different? – Immigration & Borders
% in favour
80
70
72
70
65
69
64
68
60
59
63
50
40
30
20
10
0
New Expats
Customs Check
Scotland
New EU Migrants
Britain
Migrant Welfare
Does Scotland Want Something
Different? – The Trade-Off
70
60
31
50
32
40
30
24
21
30
20
10
22
20
Britain: Should
Britain: Should
Not
16
0
Scotland: Should Scotland: Should
Not
Definitely
-
Probably
Should Scotland Have Something
Different? - 1
• The rules on immigration from the EU should be the same in Scotland as
they are in England and Wales
• The rules on immigration from the EU should make it easier for
someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and
Wales
• The rules on immigration from the EU should make it harder for
someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and
Wales
• The rules on trade with the EU should be the same in Scotland as they
are in England and Wales
• The rules on trade with the EU should make it easier for a EU company
to do business in Scotland than in England and Wales
• The rules on trade with the EU should make it harder for a EU company
to do business in Scotland than in England and Wales
Should Scotland Have Something
Different? - 2
70
62
62
60
50
40
30
34
25
20
12
10
2
0
Immigration
Trade
Same
Easier
Harder
Should Scotland Accept Brexit At
All? - 1
• Which of these statements comes closest to your
view?
• Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should
accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU (47%)
• Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave
the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay (51%)
Should Scotland Accept Brexit At
All by IndyRef and Euref Vote
% Scotland should
not have to leave
Independence
Referendum Vote
EU Referendum Vote
Remain
Leave
Yes
91
36
No
39
10
Support for Independence
between Indyref and EURef
Source: whatscotlandthinks.org
How Brexit Cuts Across IndyRef
70
66
58
60
50
42
40
34
30
20
10
0
Remain
Leave
Yes
No
Source: 2015 British Election Study Internet Panel Waves 6 and 9
UK general
election
Scotland has become more
Eurosceptic
Despite the 62% vote to Remain, Scotland has become more sceptical about the EU.
Source: Scottish Social Attitudes
ScotCen Social Research
A Limited Pool of Potential
Converts?
% 2014 No voters
80
68
70
60
50
40
30
18
20
15
10
0
Prefer EU
Source: YouGov 20-25.7.16
Prefer UK
Don't Know
Movements in Both Directions
% would vote same way in IndyRef2
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
93
86
74
65
Yes
No
Remain
Source: YouGov, Aug-Dec. 2016
Leave
Support for Independence Since
EURef
Thoughts on IndyRef2 Timing
50
45
40
0
7
35
30
25
20
11
46
7
15
10
19
5
0
0
Sometime
2018
2019
Source: Kantar TMS 29.3-11.4.17
2019/20
After 2020
Never
Never
Different Elections
60
50
50
47
45
40
32
32
31
32
30
20
10
24
14
25
22 23
20
15
13
8
7
8
8
7
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
0
Con
Lab
LD
SNP
Then and Now?
60
50
50
43
40
30
30
20
24
15
16
8
10
7
0
Con
Lab
2015
Apr 17: Average of Polls by Panelbase, Survation and YouGov
Lib Dem
Apr. 2017
SNP
Conclusion - 1
• Clear support for free trade, even amongst Leave voters
• Considerable support for consumer and environmental
protection, though more doubtful about labour market
regulation
• Substantial support for immigration and border control,
even amongst Remain voters
• Only minority support for a different Brexit deal on
trade and immigration for Scotland
• The UK’s stance on Brexit is rather closer to that of
most Scots than is the SG’s?
Conclusion - 2
• The divergent Brexit outcome has not stimulated
increased support for independence
• One in three Yes voters backed Leave, while the
commitment of many No voters to Remain is
relatively weak
• Opinion on having indyref2 mirrors that on
independence (but Yes voters don’t agree on
timing)
• General election bound to be tougher for SNP than
2017 – but will not affect decisions about indyref2?