Dr. Stefan Wuyts
Associate Professor Marketing
Koç University
[email protected]
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Philosophy of science: short overview  Kuhn
& Popper
Importance of “New Theory”
Notes on qualitative (case study) research
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Hypothesis: Cards with vowels on one side have
even numbers on the other side.
• What is the minimum number of cards you
need to turn in order to test this hypothesis?
• Which card(s)?
E K
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7
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Thales of Milet (ca. 600 v.Chr.)
 Mathematics becomes deductive
Pythagoras (580 – 500 v.Chr.)
 Erathostenes (ca. 276 - ? v.Chr.)
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 How to calculate the circumference of the earth with a
simple stick? And:
 How to calculate the volume of the earth and the moon?
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Aristarchus (310 - ? v.Chr.)
 How to calculate the distance to the moon and sun? And:
 Is the earth the center of the universe??
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Euclides (330-275 v.Chr.)
 Compilation of existing mathematical knowledge
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Suspicious w.r.t. knowledge based on the
senses.
 Strongly inspired by mathematics
 A priori thinker (what is, much later, referred
to as “rationalist”)
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Founder of formal logic (syllogism, inference)
 As opposed to Plato, Aristoteles is an
‘observer’ (as the, later, “empiricists”)
 Those who want to know about movement
must simply observe carefully.
 Method: induction en deduction
 Worldview: geocentric
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Similar to Aristotle: geocentric
 Problem:
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Increase and decrease in speed of planets
retrogade movements of planets (eg. Mars, Jupiter,
Saturnus)
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How to explain these?
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Critique of Aristotlic thinking, in particular:
◦ deductive syllogism as the basis of knowledge
◦ Selective use of empirical data as:
 way to make premature generalizations
 an illustration of statements about reality
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FB advocate of inductive methodology:
◦ Empirical fact as point of departure
◦ Not only observation, but in particular
experiment
◦ Via empirical fact to causal explanations
◦ Develops a systematic inductive methodology
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‘Prepared’ from the 12th to the 16th century
 Takes primarily place in then 16th and 17th
century
 Core areas: mechanics en astronomy
(origins of classical physics)
 Key figures:
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Nicolaus Copernicus (1473-1543)
Johannes Kepler (1571-1630)
Galileo Galilei (1564-1642)
Isaac Newton (1642-1727)
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 Planets
orbit the sun in an elliptic course
(sun in one of the two foci)
 Imaginary line which connects the planet
with the sun travels equal spaces in equal
time intervals.
 Square of the time to orbit the sun (o) is
proportional to the cube of its average
distance to the sun (a). Or: o2 : a3 is
constant for all planets)
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Is considered to be the first ‘real scientist’
 ‘scientific method’:
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rational theoretical analysis
objective observations
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Thought experiments: first formulation of the
law of inertia
(A body will preserve its velocity and direction so
long as no force in its motion's direction acts on it)
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Three laws of motion:
a body continues in its state of uniform motion in a
straight line unless it is subjected to a force
The acceleration of the body is proportional to the
force applied
To every action there is always opposed an equal
reaction
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‘inverse square law of gravity’:
The force exercised by two bodies on each other (F)
equals the product of their masses (m) and is
inversely proportional to their mutual distance (d).
Or: F = c * m1*m2 / d2.
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18th century:
chemistry: Boyle (17e eeuw), Lavoisier (17431794), Dalton (1766-1844), Mendelejev (18341907)
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19th century :
Biology: Darwin (1809-1882) (en Wallace):
evolution theory, Mendel (1822-1864):
(genetics)
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Economy
◦ Physiocrats; Adam Smith (1723-1790), David Ricardo
(1772-1823)
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Political science:
◦ Thomas Hobbes (1588-1679); John Locke (1632-1704),
Montesquieu (1689-1755)
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Sociology:
◦ Henri Saint-Simon (1760-1825); Auguste Comte (17981857); Herbert Spencer (1820-1903); Emile Durkheim
(1858-1917); Max Weber (1864-1920)
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Marx (1818-1883) en Engels (1820-1895):
◦ Economy, history, sociology
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Popper group:
◦ Prepare a short presentation to lay out the
fundamentals of Popper’s theories
◦ Can you identify take-aways?
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Kuhn group:
◦ Idem
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Inductive versus deductive
What are empirical sciences?
Objectivity
Causality
Falsifiability
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Inductive:
◦ Inference from singular statements to universal
statements
◦ From the particular to the general
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Deductive:
◦ First develop hypothesis, then empirical testing
◦ From theory, singular statements are deduced that
if falsified by empirical testing also falsify the
theory
◦ From the general to the specific
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 When heated, metals will expand (Law)
 Iron is a metal (Condition)
 Iron will expand when heated (Inference)
 This plate is made of iron (Condition)
 This plate will expand when heated (Inference)
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 The better members of a team are integrated,
the smaller the likelihood they will experience
a burn-out (Law)
 Members of management teams are better
integrated than members of production
teams (Condition)
 Members of management teams will
experience a burnout less frequently than
members of production teams (Inference)
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What determines empirical sciences (problem
of demarcation):
◦ Logic of induction (Schlick, Waismann): a statement
must be capable of conclusive verification
◦ Popper (deductive logic): not the verifiability but the
falsifiability of a system as criterion of demarcation
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Scientific objectivity:
◦ Objective versus subjective (~Kant: feelings of
conviction)
◦ The objectivity of scientific statements lies in the
fact that they can be inter-subjectively tested
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Theories: nets to catch what we call the world
◦ Causality: to give a causal explanation of an event
means to deduce a statement which describes it
(“this thread will break”, see p38), using as
premises of the deduction one or more universal
laws, together with certain singular statements, the
initial conditions (=the cause).
◦ The principle of causality: any event can be causally
explained.
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Falsifiability:
◦ A theory is falsifiable if it divides the class of
possible basic statements unambiguously into ones
it prohibits and ones it permits
◦ Concept of the falsifying hypothesis: corroboration
of reproducible effect which refutes the theory
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Normal science and paradigms
The nature of normal science
Anomaly
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Normal science and paradigms
◦ Normal science: research firmly based upon one or
more past scientific achievements, achievements
that some particular scientific community
acknowledges for a time as supplying the
foundation for its further practice.
◦ Such achievements that are unprecedented and
open-ended are “paradigms”
◦ The change of paradigm = revolution
◦ E.g.: electricity as a fluid versus Franklin
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◦ Early fact gathering, before a first paradigm, is a
nearly random activity
◦ Paradigm makes initial divergences disappear
◦ But leaves many facts unexplained
◦ Fact collection and theory articulation become more
directed, resulting in articles for peers
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The nature of normal science
◦ Paradigm rarely object for replication (limited in
scope and prediction)
◦ Normal scientific research:
 Determination, precision;
 Application, matching facts with theory,
 articulation of those phenomena and theories that the
paradigm already supplies
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Then what’s exciting about science?
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“Solving puzzles”?
Can you connect all dots with four straight
lines, without taking your pencil off the
paper?
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Side-note: A creative solution is not necessarily a
unique novel solution, importance of prior
knowledge & recombination!
“Only an inventor knows how to borrow”
--Ralph Waldo Emerson
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Anomaly
◦ Recognition that nature has somehow violated paradigminduced expectations that govern normal science
◦ Discoveries: previous awareness of anomaly, gradual
emergence of observational and conceptual recognition,
subsequent change of paradigm
◦ Problems of recognition and resistance!
◦ “Novelty ordinarily emerges only for the man who,
knowing with precision what he should expect, is able to
recognize that something has gone wrong”
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Hypothesis: Cards with vowels on one side have
even numbers on the other side.
• What is the minimum number of cards you
need to turn in order to test this hypothesis?
• Which card(s)?
E K
4
7
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Hypothesis: Consumers younger than
18 drink non-alcoholic beverages.
• What is the minimum number of consumers
you need to check in order to test this
hypothesis?
• Which one(s)?
<18
>18
coke
beer
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Answer: E and 7
Only 4% gave the correct answer in an
experiment by Wason and Johnson-Lair
(1972)
People tend to search for confirming
information  disconfirming information
 “Confirmation bias”
Note: familiarity with topic helps! (Kahneman)
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Cognitive biases in observations
Inaccurate observations
Overgeneralization
Selective observation
Illogical reasoning
How does the scientist (try to) solve these
problems?
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Building blocks of theory development:
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What: comprehensiveness versus parsimony
How: causality
Why: glue (propositions/hypotheses)
Importance of generalizability
Papers that make theoretical contribution:
need for clarity, impact, timeliness, and
relevance
Normal science: work on improving what
already exists
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References, data, lists of variables, diagrams,
hypotheses are not theory
Addition of a new variable is not theory (or is
it?)
Critical note:
◦ is meta-analysis theoretical?
◦ is new application theoretical contribution?
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Research strategy which focuses on
understanding the dynamics present within
single settings, aimed to (provide description
or test theory or) generate theory
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Inductive
Within-case analysis
Replication logic
New topic areas
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Some important differences from other
approaches in “normal science” :
◦ No a priori theory (no constructs guaranteed), no
hypotheses (even research questions may shift)
◦ Theoretical sampling (control environmental variation)
◦ Cross-case pattern search (problem of informationprocessing biases)
◦ Shaping hypotheses (sharpening constructs and verifying
that emergent relationships between constructs fit with
the evidence)
◦ Thus: underlying logic for testing is replication
◦ Overlap data analysis and data collection
◦ Triangulation
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