The Pharmaceutical Market Evolution
Petru Crăciun
ZF Pharma – Bucharest
2015, September 22nd
Crisis Lessons - 1st Proposal
“Due to historical and recent evolutions,
as well as the EU membership of Romania,
the pharmaceutical market tends to follow
the price convergence of the European market
with all associated consequences
(price increase in local currency,
significant trade deficit
but stable price of treatment in euros)
and risks (parallel trade)”
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Crisis Lessons - 2nd Proposal
“There is no such thing
as a single administrative decision
to control the health needs;
the matter is so complex that no one is able
to predict its exact evolution in the mid- and long run.
The best way to ensure performance rewarding
is the healthy and fair competition
and the continuous update and adjustment
to all relevant evolutions”
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Crisis Lessons - 3rd Proposal
“Our common work is:
as an industry, to provide the right tools
(products) for treatment and prevention;
as health decision-makers,
to ensure a reasonable framework to achieve
an accessible and affordable treatment
for all Romanian citizens.
Let’s try to better adapt to the switch
from the offer-driven to the demand-driven
model of doing business”
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Rx Price Reduction Impact
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New Price Reduction – July 1st
 New Price List:



Average (non-weighted) Retail Price:
- 9.4%
1st Quarter Impact (backward) Estimation:
 Wholesaler level:
- 9.2%
 Manufacturer level:
-12.6%
2015 Market Impact Estimation:
- 2.8%
 Patient & HCPs Questions:


Will product affordability improve?
Will product availability be impacted?
 Industry Questions:



Is EU Single Price a Suitable Strategy?
Is Romania – an EU country – a Market of Interest?
Product P&L: Continuation/Discontinuation
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Short-term Forecast (July 2015 - June 2016)
Market
Segment
MAT(2013 - S1) MAT(2014 - S1) MAT(2015 - S1) MAT(2016 - S1) MAT(2016 - S1)
Real
Real
Real
Forecast
Δ
Total
Retail
Units
Rx
(mil.packs)
OTC
Hospital
515.2
489.7
332.1
157.7
25.5
504.1
479.4
324.0
156.4
24.7
543.0
516.6
341.8
168.3
26.4
548.6
521.8
344.8
169.7
26.7
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
1.1%
Total
Retail
Value PPP
Rx
(mil. RON)
OTC
Hospital
11,798.8
10,306.6
8,557.6
2,667.2
1,492.2
11,616.1
10,277.1
8,432.9
2,776.5
1,339.1
12,481.6
10,966.6
8,738.5
3,068.2
1,515.1
12,648.3
11,092.5
8,787.1
3,129.3
1,555.9
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
2.0%
2.7%
Total
Average
Retail
Price PPP
Rx
(RON)
OTC
Hospital
22.90
21.05
25.77
16.91
58.59
23.04
21.44
26.03
17.75
54.31
22.99
21.23
25.56
18.24
57.35
23.06
21.26
25.48
18.44
58.25
0.3%
0.1%
-0.3%
1.1%
1.6%
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Key Issues
 “Common” Drugs:



Not all products will survive at current prices
Alternative products will be more expensive than the existing ones
Total expenditure will not fall
 “Premium” Drugs:



Price difference makes them more attractive for “rich” EU markets
Availability for Romanian patients will diminish
Create stronger premises for tougher HQ decisions
 Reimbursement:


If reimbursement go below 50% of the value, market influence decrease
“Common” drugs cannot pay for “Premium” drugs (claw-back)
 Pricing:

Latest by the end of 2016 we will be forced to review current pricing
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Thank you for your attention
 Email: [email protected]
www.cegedim.com