Contents Page Minutes 3 Summarization of Mr. Bourne Chooka 7 Appendices: 15 Speech by Permanent Secretary Mr. Siazongo Siakalenge Expectations of participants Presentation on Cotton Sector Regulations by Stephen Kabwe Presentation of Pricing Systems in Africa by Gérald Estur Attendance List Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 2 Minutes The eagerl e pe ted orkshop o “eed Cotto Pri e “etti g Models took pla e at the Cresta Golf View Hotel, Lusaka, on April 9th 2013 with the attendance of farmers, ginners, government officials and representatives of other institutions of the private sector. Some prior concerns about a tense disposition could soon be dissolved, as the expectations arisen from an introductory brainstorming showed a major consensus about the intended outcome of the meeting. A fair u dersta di g a o g gi otto stakeholders hi h takes far er’s a d er’s osts i to a ou t a d leads to a o petiti e odel for seed pricing which ought to be flexible to world price dynamics, was expected to be the ideal result. To pro ide ge eral i for atio , Mr. “tephe Ka Poli Resear h I stitute ga e a prese tatio o the eed for seed otto pri e setti g i )a e fro the I da a Agri ultural otto se tor regulatio s and ia . A al zi g the pre ious oo s and busts throughout the sector, he emphasized on the importance of a price setting mechanism, which the Cotton Act is still currently lacking. Rating the Zambian sector as e pe ted tha o e trated a d those i the arket- ased , lo er pri es should e o petiti e se tors ith a u ers. Nevertheless, a regulation needs to be licensed by the Cotton Board of Zambia, hi h is tra spare t a d e for ea le a d a hie es se tor stakeholders o a oordi atio et ee i -win- basis. Reasonable trade barriers need to be installed to avoid side-selling, and screening of new people coming into the sector should e o sidered. As e ha i g produ ti it at far Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models a d gi er le el ill Page 3 e the ke for a sustai a le otto se tor , o e should put ore e phasis o the outcomes and provide equal information to all the players. Referring to the differe t otto pri i g s ste s i Afri a , the o sulta t for the initiative, Mr. Gérald Estur, then pointed out, that Zambia is one of the few ou tries hi h is la ki g a for ula. This, o top of the olatilit of i ter atio al cotton prices, unreliable proje tio s a d dis o ti uous, u predi ta le e ha ge rates , i reases the pri e risk for )a ia produ ers. E e though there is o perfect solution for creating a price-setting system, it is vital that ginners and producers agree on certain parameters and, moreover, increase productivity, so that the cotton production remains competitive and profitable. Mr. Estur’s recommendations i ol e a tra spare t for ula hi h: al ulates the produ er price as a fixed percentage of lint and seeds sales, based on easily accessible and erifia le refere es , per its flexibility within the season, allowing an adaption to olatile orld pri es periodi al re isio a d a stipulated i i u support pri e . Even though one could reach a consensus on a lot of the objectives, a vivid discussion arose after the three groups (farmers, ginners and government officials) had presented their opinions on the different price mechanism parameters: Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 4 How the groups voted: Price Mechanisms 1. Market price or administered? Farmers no Ginners Market price Government administered 2. Price set by: government, ginners, cotton board/ interprofession, producers? officially homologated? 3. Negotiated or calculated? yes Yes, ginners & producers Price set by ginners Yes Negotiated based on calculations Calculated 4. Pricing formula taking into account ginner costs/producer costs? 5. Producer price based on percentage of world price? 6. Price set: before planting, before marketing at purchase, pluri-annually? 7. Indicative or minimum guaranteed price? 8. Pan-territorial (national, regional, ginnery)? 9. Price set at: farm gate, collection point, ginnery gate? 10. Quality differentials? Yes Both ginner and producer costs Yes, both No (producer price locally) Before planting No (but take into account) Yes Before marketing Point was adopted yes Real price (neither indicative nor minimum) indicative yes No agreement no National-should take into account quality/transport (regional aspects) Farm gate-ideally gin gate yes Yes, like in the past yes 11. Pan-seasonal? Fixed or revisable (during or at the end of marketing season)? 12. Price paid cash or after delivery? no Revisable-both ways Revised cash but not in advance yes cash cash Not there yet, but there should be one (yes) yes 13. Prize support or stabilization fund? Adopt the whole Suggestions: grading, fewer delivery points, payment to farmers through banks Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 5 The main arguments were about: the time at which the price should be set, if the price should be based on the percentage of the world price, and if it should be indicative or a minimum price should be guaranteed. Farmers voted in favour of setting the price before planting, whereas the ginners want it to be set just before marketing. While government representatives feared one could not run away from international forces, farmers and ginners argued in favour of a local focus when setting the producer price, which is never the less geared to the international circumstances. Ideally, then, the farmers unit should negotiate the price individually with the ginners. As this system is probably too complex, the parties stipulated that the industry could set a minimum price which is negotiated with the ginners and based on the world price but subject to revisions during the season. Moreover, the issue of missing quality differentials was discussed. The farmers stated that they got the impression in the past, that some ginners were not interested in the quality and thus not willing to pay according to the grade of quality. Ginners opposed that due to the lack of a national grading system, they were forced to classify the lint themselves and often made a costly efforts to clean the cotton as well. As, at the same time, they had to save their input pricing, a lot of pressure was put on them not to lose their farmers to the competitors, which then would lead to a price adjustment anyway. In fact, ginners are in favour of a gradi g s ste , ut o e i A otto . Far ers the hi h far ers should ot tr to sell B otto ade the suggestio , that the gi for ers should stop financing the farmers all together and make the seeds available on the market (like for other crops). A compromise could be reached, if the CBZ sets the Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 6 parameters in close interaction with the whole sector. Nonetheless, all parties agreed on the fact that quality differentials should be taken into account, as well as creating a stabilization fund as a safety cushion when world market prices are too low. Government officials however argued, that all stakeholders should deposit into the fund, so that no party would have a reason to exploit the system. All groups stated in their closing arguments, that the meeting was important to share and get to know the views of all the parties involved and that the people present were positive about the fact that, with the help of the consultant, an adequate formula can be determined to fairly allocate the revenues and risks. Thus, the workshop successfully laid the cornerstone to further developing a pricing model. Summarization of Mr. Bourne Chooka Preamble and Objectives of the Workshop )a ia’s otto i dustr has been a success story since privatization of the only parastatal o pa the Li t Co pa of )a ia Li ited i 99 . The se tor has grown by over 100% in terms of area planted, numbers of farmers growing cotton and production. There are currently over 200,000 households growing seed cotton and with an average number of 6 persons per household, it translates into over 1.2million people directly benefiting from the seed cotton production. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 7 Despite the above successes, the cotton sector has been faced with key critical challenges and if left unchecked could plunge the sector into total collapse. Among these challenges, is lack of a clear understanding or national formula that is used to arrive at a producer price for cotton. It is with the forgoing that more than 30 key cotton industry stakeholders from the Government, Cotton Board of Zambia (CBZ), Zambia Cotton Ginners Association (ZCGA), Cotton Association of Zambia (CAZ), Cotton Development Trust (CDT), Consumer and Competition Protection Commission (CCPC), Zambia National Farmers Union (ZNFU), Seed Control and Certification Institute (SCCI) and Indaba for Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) others from developmental partners met on 9th April 2013 to discuss the pros and cons of different seed cotton pricing models and meet and as interested stakeholders to seek and create a conducive cooperation within the cotton industry. The workshop was organized and sponsored by the Competitive African Cotton Initiative (COMPACI) in conjunction with the Cotton Board of Zambia. Opening Address The workshop was opened by the Permanent Secretary (PS) – Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAL). In his address, the PS told the gathering that the seed cotton producer prices in Zambia has been a thorny issue in the past 4 – 5 ears ith egotiatio s et ee CA) ei g far ers’ represe tati es a d )CGA ei g gi ers’ represe tati es ei g ost a ri o ious i the / seaso . He told the gathering that it had been brought to his attention that the reduced producer price for that season was due to the fall in lint prices on the Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 8 international market that had a direct bearing on the producer prices to be paid by ginners. This he said, was not akin to Zambia alone as prices of cotton reduced worldwide, save for the countries that had either subsidies or had a stabilization fund in place to cushion the fall in producer prices. He commended COMPACI for not only sponsoring the workshop but also for its intervention in the extension to try and improve the productivity of cotton which was also an important aspect to be considered when analyzing retained farmers earnings from growing cotton. He said i )a ia e eed to o ti ue to tr to i pro e produ ti it le els fro yearly averages of only around 450kg/Ha, to achieving yields much closer to the potential of the seed – which is way in excess of 1,000kgs/Hectare. Even i reasi g this ield to sa 7 kgs/Ha ould sig ifi a tl e ha e far ers’ et earnings, as his income rises yet his cost of inputs remains pretty much the sa e He lamented lack of value addiction in the cotton value chain told the workshop that virtually all lint produced in Zambia was for export.. This was the more reason why producer prices for cotton was so dependent on world lint prices which unfortunately were quite volatile. He was aware that market data such as the Cotlook A index and the New York futures market were used when arriving at a price prior to harvest time since they were the only real indicators of realizable market prices of lint. It seemed that the da s of Margi al Crop A al sis ere go e ut as sure that so e far ers had their own analysis when deciding which crop to grow the following the season. He agreed with the theme of the workshop which was to create a conducive cooperation within the cotton industry. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 9 Expectations from participants. It was interesting to note the varying expectations from participants that include the following: To have a clear perspective of what works, where and why Fair understanding of factors that influence producer price Better cooperation among cotton stakeholders on cotton price fixing Recommend price setting models for Zambia taking into account farmers and ginners costs Establish what caused the price impasse in the cotton industry Adopt/develop a competitive price model for seed cotton pricing Create a realistic price mechanism which is fair for the different parties and taking into account prevailing situation and flexible to world price dynamics Need less Government intervention in price setting in Zambia – private sector needs to find solutions amongst themselves Enhance trust among stakeholders To kick start the process of developing an acceptable price mechanism by the industry To re ei e the o sulta t’s progra for the aseli e sur ey leading to seed cotton price setting model Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 10 Paper1. Cotton sector regulations and the need for seed cotton price setting in Zambia. In his presentation, Mr. Stephen Kabwe, from IAPRI gave an outline of the cotton sector in Zambia. The sector was characterized with a boom after privatization with production rising from 32,000Mt in 1994 to over 200,000Mt in 2011/12 season and then a crisis due to lack of regulatory framework in place, with rampant side selling and side buying challenges resulting in huge input loan default by farmers. In 2005, the Cotton Act was enacted to from the Cotton Board of Zambia and to regulate the cotton industry as it relates to the production and ginning of seed cotton; to control the production and marketing of cotton and to provide for matters connected with or incidental to the foregoing. Even with the Act in place, the sector lacked price setting mechanism. The sector could be defined as concentrated and market based where there are few buyers/ginners, more input credit and extension provision thus better yields but have lower prices compared to competitive sectors with many buyers and less extension and input support. There was need to put in place regulatory approach to sector type with such objectives as to ensure continued provision of inputs to smallholder famers and maintenance of high quality lint. Also, to ensure that a win-win price for both ginners and farmers is set either through market competition or some form of competition substitute. While appreciating the role the CCPC is playing to level the seed cotton pricing field in the country, he warned that the anti-trust focus could be counter-productive given the reality of the credit and input market failure. The way forward according to him, was have a price setting mechanism that is more formalized and transparent, that can generate a win-win indicative price to reduce the price disputes between farmers and ginners. Further, he recommended that the CCPC needed to focus on outcomes rather than process so as to ensure that the prices paid to farmers are competitive and that there was no collusion in arriving at a price. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 11 Paper2. Cotton Pricing Systems in Africa. Mr. Gerald Estur, the consultant on cotton pricing models presented an overview of the pricing systems, constraints and challenges, objectives and principles, outlook for cotton prices, Zambia in perspective and conclusions and recommendations. He told the audience that the producer prices were directly or indirectly related to international cotton prices and that producers sold their lint to countries where cotton was harvested mechanically and that producers sold cotton in countries where cotton is hand-picked. The price mechanisms took into consideration the following factors: a) Is it market price or administered b) Price set by government, ginners, cotton board/interprofesssional, producers, official homologated c) Negotiated or calculated d) Pricing formula taking into account ginners costs/producer costs e) Producer price based on percentage of world price f) Price set before planting, before marketing at purchase or pluri-annual g) Indicative or minimum guaranteed price h) Pan-territorial 9national, regional, ginnery) i) Price set at farm gate, collection point, ginnery gate j) Quality differentials k) Pan-seasonal? Fixed or revisable (during or at the end of the season) Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 12 l) Price paid cash or after delivery m) Price support or stabilization fund Participants were put into three groups, that is farmers, ginners and government and were asked to answer the above questions. As would be expected, the results showed inclination or biasness towards group belongings. Price setting mechanisms in Africa depend on the cotton sector structure and mainly on degree of competition among ginners. In West and Central African states, the price is pan-seasonal, minimum guaranteed pre-planting price based on a percentage of international prices. In East and Southern African states, the price is fixed just before marketing based on international price projections minus the costs. This scenario has an increased price risk for producers and more fluctuations in production. In particular, the consultant told the participants that Zambia did not have a formula for arriving at a price. This, coupled with the volatility of the international cotton prices and unpredictable exchange rates increases the price risk for producers in Zambia. He emphasized the point that there was no perfect reference for cotton prices with Cotlook A index being just a quote and the ICE futures market not perfectly correlated with international cotton prices for physical cotton. He also talked about the need to address the issue of produ ti it as pri e is o l o e ele e t of produ ers’ re e ues. The other issue to take into consideration was the quality of the fibre noting that African cotton is discounted due to perceived risks of contamination despite the fact that hand-picked produces better lint. The main objective of a pricing system was to contribute to the improving the performance and competitiveness of the cotton sector, increase transparency and build trust and mitigate risks of intraseasonal price volatility. In summary, he recommended a simple and transparent formula where the producer price could be calculated as a fixed percentage of lint and seed sales based on easily accessible and verifiable data. It should also be flexible, allowing for adaption to volatile world price. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 13 Outcome There was general feeling and agreement among the participants that Zambia should i deed look i to de elopi g a pri i g for ula soo er rather tha later taking into account the international lint prices, seed revenue and ginners and farmers costs. The consultant was asked to come up with a questionnaire to help develop the required formula. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 14 REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK SPEECH BY MR. SIAZONGO SIAKALENGE PERMANENT SECRETARY AT THE SEED COTTON PRICING MECHANISM WORKSHOP HELD AT CRESTA GOLF VIEW HOTEL, LUSAKA 9TH APRIL, 2013 - THE CHAIRMAN, COTTON BOARD OF ZAMBIA, - EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR IAPRI, - DIRECTOR COTTON DEVELOPMENT TRUST, - CHAIRPERSON ZAMBIA COTTON GINNERS ASSOCIATION, - CHAIRPERSON COTTON ASSOCIATION OF ZAMBIA, - REPRESENTATIVE FROM ZAMBIA NATIONAL FARMERS UNION, FARMERS, - DIRECTORS FROM GOVERNMENT MINISTRIES PRESENT, - GINNERS - LADIES AND GENTLEMEN I AM GREATLY HONOURED TO BE GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY TO ADDRESS THIS IMPORTANT GATHERING. LET ME THANK THE ORGANIZERS OF THIS WORKSHOP, THE COTTON BOARD OF ZAMBIA AND THE COMPETITIVE AFRICAN COTTON INITIATIVE (COMPACI) AND THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT FOR FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. THERE IS NO BETTER TIME TO HOLD A WORKSHOP OF SUCH NATURE THAN NOW WHEN WE ARE APPROACHING THE BEGINNING OF THE 2013/2014AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SEASON. MR. CHAIRMAN, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, THE SEED COTTON PRODUCER PRICE IN ZAMBIA HAS BEEN A THORNY ISSUE PARTICULARLY IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS. I MUST SAY NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE FARMER REPRESENTATIVES AND GINNERS REPRESENTATIVES, WEREMOST ACRIMONIOUS IN THE 2012/2013 MARKETING SEASON. MOST OF US PRESENT HERE ARE AWARE OF THE EFFORTS THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH MY MINISTRY, PUT IN TO THOSE NEGOTIATIONSTO TRY AND BRING THE TWO PARTIES TO AN AGREEMENT AND Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 16 PAY A PRICE THAT WOULD RESULT IN A WIN-WIN SITUATION TO BOTH THE GINNERS AND THE FARMERS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FINAL PRICE OFFERED TO OUR COTTON FARMERS WAS FAR BELOW THE EXPECTED OFFER PRICE DUE TO LOWER LINT PRICE ON THE WORLD MARKET. I UNDERSTAND THAT THE SAME FRUSTRATIONS WERE EVIDENT IN OUR NEIBOURINGING COUNTRIES SUCH AS ZIMBABWE, MALAWI, MOZAMBIQUE, TANZANIA AND SOUTH AFRICA ANDALL OTHER COTTON GROWING COUNTRIES AROUND THE GLOBE. THE OUTCOME OF A REDUCED PRODUCER PRICE IN ZAMBIA, AND INDEED IN ALL THESE OTHER COUNTRIES, IS A REDUCED HACTERAGE PLANTED UNDER COTTON IN THE 2012/13 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. I AM INFORMEDTHAT ZAMBIAIS LIKELY TO RECORD AN ESTIMATED 40% REDUCTION IN COTTON PRODUCTION THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF POOR PRICES THAT WERE OFFERED LAST YEAR AND THE UNFAVOURABLE GROWING CONDITIONS FACED THIS SEASON. MR. CHAIRMAN, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, IT IS WELL UNDERSTOOD THAT COTTON IN ZAMBIA IS GROWN MAINLY BY SMALLHOLDER FARMERS WHO RECIEVE PRODUCTION INPUTS FROM THE GINNING COMPANIES IN FORM OF SEED, CHEMICALS, FERTILIZERS AND SPRAYERS. THE GINNERS ALSO PROVIDE EXTENSION SERVICES, SUPPLEMENTING GOVERNMENT EXTENTION SERVICES. OTHERS PROVIDING EXTENTION SERVICES INCLUDE THE COTTON ASSOCIATION OF ZAMBIA, CONSERVATION FARMING UNIT AND THE COMPETITIVE AFRICAN COTTON INITIATIVE (COMPACI). IN ORDER FOR THE SMALLSACLE FARMERS TO MAKE GAINFUL INCOME FROM THE SALE OF COTTON IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE EVENTS ON THE GLOBAL MARKET DICTATE THE PRICE OF COTTON, Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 17 GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO PUT IN PLACE MECHANISMS THAT WILL CUSHION THE SMALL SCALE FARMERS FROM SUCH CATASTROPHIC EVENTS. ONE SUCH MEASURE THAT GOVERNMENT HAS PUT IN PLACE THROUGHTHE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK IS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A COMMODITY PRICE STABILIZATION FUND IN THE 2013 BUDGET. A TOTAL OF 3 BILLION KWACHA HAS BEEN ALLOCATED FOR THIS PURPOSE. PRICING MODELS SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED IN ISOLATION. THERE IS NEED TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE OF LOW PRODUCTIVITY IN AGRICULTURE. EXTENSION SERVICES AND YIELD IMPROVEMENT TRAINING ARE PROBABLY AS IMPORTANT – IF NOT MORE THAN THE ACTUAL PRODUCER PRICE ITSELF – AS IT HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED THAT GOOD YIELDING FARMERS CAN MAKE A POSTIVE RETURN FROM THEIR CROPS WITH GOOD AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES WHICH WILLRESULTIN HIGHER YIELDS. IN ZAMBIA, WE SHOULD ENDEAVOUR TO IMPROVE COTTON PRODUCTIVITY LEVELS FROM 1,000KG/HECTARE. THE CURRENT AVERAGES EVEN INCREASING OF 450KG/HECTARETO THIS YIELD TO 700KG/HECTAREWOULDSIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE NET EARNINGS OF OUR FARMERS WHILE THE COST OF INPUTS WILL REMAIN MORE OR LESS THE SAME. MR CHAIRMAN, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, STAKEHOLDERS IN THE COTTON INDUSTRY WERE PLEASED TO NOTE THAT THE NATIONAL COTTON PRODUCTION REACHED IT’“ ALL TIME HIGH RECORD OF 7 , METRIC TONNE“ IN / SEASON. THE NUMBER OF FARMERS INVOLVED IN COTTON PRODUCTION ALSO INCREASED TO MORE THAN 450,000. WITH IMPROVED PRODUCTIVITY MORE CAN BE ACHIEVED. Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 18 I AM AWARE THAT THE GINNERS BUY THE SEED COTTON DIRECTLY FROM THE FARMERS AND PAY THE FARMER ALMOST IMMEDIATELY, AT FARM GATE- AFTER RECOVERING THE INPUT LOAN. I AM RELIABLY INFORMED THAT 99% OF THE LINT IS EXPORTED TO INTERNATIONAL MARKETSWHILE A SMALL QUANTITY OF THE SEED COMPONENT IS RETAINED AS PLANTING SEED AND THE RESTIS SOLD TO LOCAL OIL CRUSHING MILLS AND THE SURPLUS EXPORTED INTO REGIONAL MARKETS.THERE IS THEREFORE NEED TO ADD VALUE TO OUR LINT. MR. CHAIRMAN, I AM NOT HERE TO PRE-EMPT THE PRESENTATION TO BE MADE BY THE EXPERT IN COTTON PRICE SETTING MODELS BUT I AM MERELY TRYING TO CARRY OUT A SIMPLE COTTON VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS. THE LIBERALI)ATION OF THE ECONOMY IN THE COUNTRY IN THE MID 99 ’s BROUGHT ABOUTSOME GAINS AND SOME CHALLENGES IN DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY. THE COTTON VALUE CHAIN WAS NOT SPAREDIN THAT MANY NEW GINNERSHAVE SINCE COME INTO THE SECTOR, INCREASING COMPETITION, BUT ALSO THE ISSUE OF SIDE BUYING OF CROP PRE-FINANCED BY OTHERS. THIS PRACTICE, IF NOT CONTROLLED COULD LEAD TO GINNERS REDUCING THEIR INPUT FINANCING, WHICH WOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO THE INDUSTRY. MR CHAIRMAN, DISTINGUISHED GUESTS, THE TEXTILE SECTOR IN ZAMBIA HAS COLLAPSED. THIS IS DUE TO, AMONGOTHERS, COMPETITION FROM ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIESAND IMPORTS OF SECOND HAND CLOTHES.THE RISING NUMBER OF MORE EFFICIENT AND HUGE TEXTILE PLANTS IN THE FAR EAST HAS ALSO IMPACTED NEGATIVELY ON TEXTILE INDUSTRY IN THE REGION – LEADING TO Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 19 CLOSURE OF A NUMBER OF SPINNING PLANTS. THIS LIMITATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN IS UNFORTUNATE AND SOMETHING THAT GOVERNMENT IS LOOKING INTO. CURRENTLY, VIRTUALLY ALL ZAMBIAN LINT IS SOLD TO INTERNATIONAL MARKETS AT PRICES DETERMINED BY WORLD MARKETS WITHOUT ADDING VALUE TO THE LINT DUE TO A TOTAL COLLAPSE OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY. I AM AWARE THAT MARKETDATA– SUCH AS THE COTLOOK INDEX AND NEW YORK FUTURES MARKETS ARE USED WHEN ARRIVING AT A PRODUCER PRICE JUST PRIOR TO HARVEST TIME – BEING THE ONLY REAL INDICATORS OF REALISABLE MARKET PRICES OF COTTON LINT. I APPRECIATE THAT IT IS NOT EASY TO PREDICT FUTURE PRICES – BUT AT LEAST INDICATIVE INFORMATION IS WHAT THE FARMER REALLY NEEDS WHEN CONSIDERING HIS PLANTING OPTIONS. I WISH TO APPEAL TO THE COTTON ASSOCIATION OF ZAMBIA WORKING IN COLLABORATION WITH THE AGRICULTURAL MARKETING INFORMATION CENTRE (AMIC) IN THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRI-BUSINESS AND MARKETING TO ENSURE THAT SUCH INFORMATION IS AVAILED TO OUR FARMERS BEFORE THE COMMENCEMENT OF THE COTTON PLANTING SEASON. MR CHAIRMAN, PLEASE ALLOW ME TO ASSURE THE AUDIENCE THATGOVERNMENT IS DETERMINED TO CREATE AN ENABLING ENVIRONMENT WITH A PRIVATE SECTOR LED ECONOMY - BUT WE WILL NOT SIT IDLE AND LET OUR FARMERS BE CHEATED BY UNSCRUPULOUS TRADERS WHO OFFER UNREALISTIC PRICES FOR THEIR PRODUCTS. I FULLY AGREE WITH THE THEME OF THI“ WORK“HOP WHICH I“ OF CREATING A CONDUCIVE COOPERATION WITHIN THE COTTON INDU“TRY A“ I BELIEVE THAT IF WE ACHIEVE THIS COOPERATION AS A COUNTRY, WE STAND TO BENEFIT Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 20 THROUGH THE INCREASED COTTON PRODUCTION THEREBY CREATING WEALTH AMONG THE SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN THE COUNTRY. FINALLY, I WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE COMPETITIVE AFRICAN COTTON INITIATIVE (COMPACI), I UNDERSTAND THAT THE PROGRAM DOES NOT ONLY LOOK AT EXTENTION – BUT IS ALSO ASSISTING IN THE FINANCING OF THE NATIONAL COTTON DATABASE, LOOKING AT OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE SEED QUALITY AND HAVE AL“O BROUGHT IN THE CON“ULTANT TO TODAY’“ WORKSHOP ON SEED COTTON PRICE SETTING MODELS. IT IS NOW MY PLEASURE TO OFFICIALLY DECLARE THIS WORKSHOP OPENED AND WISH YOU SUCESSFUL DELIBERATIONS. THANK YOU Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 21 Expectations of participants: Perspective on what works where and why Fair understanding of Factors influencing producer price Better cooperation among cotton stakeholders on cotton price fixing Recommend Price setting models for )a ia Far er’s/Gi er’s osts should e taken into account) Establish what caused the price impasse in the cotton industry Adopt/develop a competitive price model for seed pricing Create a realistic price mechanism which is fair for the different parties and taking in account prevailing situation and flexible to the world price dynamics Need less government intervention in price setting in Zambia-private sector needs to find solutions among themselves Enhance trust among stakeholders To kick start the process of developing an acceptable pricing mechanism (by the industry) To re ei e the o sulta t’s progra for the aseli e sur e leadi g to seed cotton price setting model Price setting models for other crops/commodities? Workshop on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Page 22 COTTON SECTOR REGULATIONS AND THE NEED FOR SEED COTTON PRICE SETTING IN ZAMBIA Stephen Kabwe and David Tschirley Presentation at the CBZ/COMPACI meeting on Seed Cotton Price Setting Models Golf View Hotel Lusaka 9th April, 2013 INDABA AGRICULTURAL POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Outline 1 Overview of Zambia’s Cotton Sector Boom followed by crisis Linking cotton sector performance to sector type Competition – coordination trade off Linking regulatory approaches to sector type Cotton Act CCP Way forward Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 2 Overview Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Zambia’s cotton sector success story 3 After reforms in late 1994, production rose from 32,000Mt to about 250,000 Mt last year Source of cash income for over 200,000 farm families A Source of FOREX for the economy Lint on international market receives premium because of its high quality Mainly supported by the private companies Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Booms and busts … 4 Concentrated Semi-competitive Privatization Seed cotton prod in MT 300,000 250,000 200,000 Post-Reform Boom (Private sector success story) 1st Crash (Credit default) 2nd Second Boom (Private innovation, Crash (Macrorising gov’t economics involvement, + credit increased private default sector entry Ambiguous period 3rd Crash (Credit default) 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Year Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Booms and busts … 5 Before and during the 1st crash No regulations but purely private sector coordination Increased ginning companies and rampant issues of side selling/credit default 2nd and 3rd crashes Cotton Act but disputes between farmers and ginners over price The sector lacked price setting mechanism Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute … driven by price 300,000 3000 250,000 2500 200,000 2000 150,000 1500 100,000 1000 50,000 500 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 0 1997 0 Harvest Year Current year's production Last year's price Institute Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Seed in MT kg Seedcotton cottonproduction prodtion in 3500 1996 seed cotton price in ZMK 6 … driven by price 7 3000 250,000 Correlation 1996-2012 = 0.78; High! 2500 200,000 2000 150,000 1500 100,000 1000 50,000 500 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 0 1997 0 Harvest Year Current year's production Last Policy year'sResearch price Institute Indaba Agricultural Seedcotton cottonproduction prodtion in Seed in MT kg 300,000 1996 seed cotton price in ZMK 3500 … driven by price 8 3000 250,000 2500 200,000 2000 150,000 1500 100,000 1000 50,000 500 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 0 1997 0 Harvest Year Current year's production Last Policy year'sResearch price Institute Indaba Agricultural Seedcotton cottonproduction prodtion in Seed in MT kg 300,000 Much lower price last year. Will production plummet? 1996 seed cotton price in ZMK 3500 9 Linking sector performance to sector type Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Sector types 10 National monopoly Regional monopoly Concentrated, market-based Competitively structured Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Sector types 11 National monopoly Regional monopoly Concentrated, market-based Competitively structured Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Competition-coordination trade-off 12 Sectors with few buyers (“concentrated”, e.g. Zambia, Zimbabwe) offer: More input credit and ext service better yields High quality high price premium on world markets Lower prices than competitive sectors Sectors with many buyers (“competitive”, e.g. Tanzania) No input credit and no ext service low yields Low quality of lint Higher prices to farmers Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 13 Competitively structured cotton sectors are not inherently superior to concentrated sectors Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 14 Linking regulatory approach to sector type Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute What do we mean by regulation? 15 • Any formalized set of incentives and sanctions meant to influence behavior of participants in a particular direction “Rules of the game” • Could be public, private, or a mix of the two • Regulations could be effected at different stages: • • • • registration requirements, information sharing requirements export permits, quality standards, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Regulatory Objectives 16 Achieving coordination between sector stakeholders, so as to ensure: the provision of inputs to smallholder producers the maintenance of lint quality Ensuring that a win-win price for the ginners and farmers for their seed cotton either through market competition or some form of competition substitute the “competition policy” function of regulation Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Cotton Act in Zambia 17 Formed because of the challenges faced by the Sector Allowed the creation of CBZ Regulate production, processing and marketing of cotton Advise government on regulations and policies related to the sector Monitor and report on implementation of policies and matters related to the sector Carry out such activities as are necessary…. Lack of price setting mechanism in the Act Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Competition and Consumer Protection 18 Anti-trust focus could be counter-productive given reality of credit and input market failure “unjustifiable exclusion from a trade association” … but sector needs modest trade barriers to enforce proper conduct in input distribution and buying Prohibits “making recommendations (regarding) price” … but this may be needed to avoid side-selling which can destroy the sector May prohibit mergers … but sector is dynamic Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Way forward [1] Acknowledge that there are market failures in these 19 cotton sector types ...... hence the need some level of regulations Cotton Board of Zambia Importance of licensing rules that specify capabilities and conduct of firms wishing to participate in the sector o Must be allowed but be transparent and enforceable Pricing o Cannot separate price from side selling o Need a price-setting mechanism that is more formalized and transparent that can generate a win-win indicative price to reduce the price disputes between farmers and ginners Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Way forward [2] 20 CCP needs to focus on outcomes rather than processes: “Are cotton companies paying competitive prices to farmers?”, NOT “Are companies engaging in collusive practices?” All should point to Enhancing productivity at farm and ginnery levels Key for a sustainable cotton sector Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute 21 Thank You INDABA AGRICULTURAL POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute Cotton Pricing Systems in Africa Gérald Estur Cotton Stakeholders Workshop Lusaka, Zambia, 9 April 2013 Outline • Overview of Pricing Systems • Constraints and Challenges • Objectives and Principles • Outlook for Cotton Prices • Zambia in Perspective • Conclusions et Recommendations Overview of Pricing Systems Pricing Systems • Producer price are directly or indirectly linked to international cotton prices in most countries. • Producers sell lint in countries where cotton is harvested mechanically. • Producers sell seed cotton in countries where cotton is handpicked. • Cotton prices and/or revenues benefit from some form of direct or indirect support/subsidy in almost all producing countries. Pricing Mechanisms • Market price or administered? • Price set by: government, ginners, cotton board / interprofession, producers? officially homologated ? • Negotiated or calculated? • Pricing formula taking into account producer costs? ginner costs? • Producer price based on percentage of world price? • Price set: before planting, before marketing, at purchase, pluri-annually? • Indicative or minimum guaranteed price? Pricing Mechanisms • Pan-territorial (national, regional, ginnery)? • Price set at: farm gate, collection point, ginnery gate? • Quality differentials? • Pan-seasonal? Fixed or revisable (during or at the end of marketing season)? • Price paid cash or after delivery? Advance payment? • Price support or stabilization fund? Pricing Mechanisms • Price-setting mechanisms in Africa depend on the cotton sector structure, and mainly on the degree of competition between ginners. • Ginners must have secure supply of seed cotton to be able to guarantee producer price prior to plantings (marketing monopoly, concessions, contract farming). • In competitive sectors, producers are more exposed to market price fluctuations. Pricing Mechanisms • WCA countries: Pan-seasonal, pan-territorial minimum guaranteed preplanting price based on price projections. Producer price is a percentage of international price. Final price based on actual average price (in countries with price support fund). Higher price risk for ginners. • ESA countries: Price fixed before marketing based on international price projection minus costs. Increased price risk for producers, and more fluctuations in production. Impact of Volatility • ESA Countries World price 100 50 150 Ginner (cost + margin) 40 40 40 Producer (residual) 60 10 110 World price 100 50 150 Producer (60%-share) 60 30 90 Ginner (40%-share) 40 20 60 • WCA Countries Pricing Systems • Fixed pre-planting price: Benin, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal • Pre-planting price + eventual top-up payment at the end of season: Togo, Ghana • Price support fund: Mali • Price smoothing fund: Burkina Faso , Cameroon • Marketing floor price based on formula: Kenya (before planting), Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe • No formula: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zambia Constraints and Challenges International cotton prices are extremely volatile Cotlook A Index (daily quotes; U.S. cents per pound CFR Far East) 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Source: Cotton Outlook Jan-10 Jan-12 Daily Prices –2010/2011 Crop Cotlook A Index (US cents per pound CFR Far East) 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 janv-10 mars-10 juin-10 sept-10 déc-10 Source : Cotton Outlook févr-11 mai-11 Daily Prices – 2011/2012 Crop Cotlook A Index (US cents per lb CFR Far East) 175 150 125 100 75 janv-11 mars-11 juin-11 sept-11 déc-11 Source : Cotton Outlook févr-12 mai-12 Cotton price projections are not reliable Cotlook A Index season average forecast in Avril (US cents per pound) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Projection Actual 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 05/06 Sources: ICAC, Cotton Outlook 08/09 11/12 No perfect reference for cotton prices • Cotlook A Index based on quotations from merchants not on actual prices of sales to spinners. • Cotlook A Index has become less relevant for prices of lint sold by ginners to merchants. • ICE cotton futures market is not perfectly correlated with international cotton prices for physical cotton (“basis” fluctuations). • There is no price reference for cotton seeds as they are not traded internationally. Basis Fluctuations Cotlook A Index minus NY nearby futures (US cents per lb) 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Sources: Cotton Outlook & ICE Futures U.S. Jan-13 Constraints and Challenges • Exchange rate are volatile (production costs in local currency while lint is sold in dollars). • Estimates of production costs always contentious as they vary from one stakeholder to the other, and from one season to the next. • The share of the reference price that can be allocated to farmers is highly dependent on the world price and on the level of production. Exchange rates are volatile and unpredictable Kwacha/Dollar (monthly averages) 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 4 000 3 500 3 000 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Bank of Zambia Constraints and Challenges • Ginners needs cotton growers more than growers need ginners: farmers have a choice between crops, whereas a ginnery without cotton is worthless. • “Competition is important to ensuring efficiency and equitable sharing of benefits between farmers and ginners. Yet, too much competition makes it difficult or impossible to engage in the coordination needed to provide important services such as quality control, input credit, research, and extension.” (World Bank study). The Issue of Productivity • Price is only one component of producer’s revenues. • Low productivity translates into lower producer prices. • Ginning outturn is a key factor. The Issue of Quality Cotton price depends on: • Fiber properties (“fiber”) • Contamination (“only fiber”) • Reputation (“more than just fiber”): cotton trade is based on the principle of the “sanctity of contracts”. African cotton is discounted due to the perceived risks of contamination, despite the fact that handpicked cotton produces better lint. Objectives and Principles Objectives of Pricing Systems • Contribute to improving performance competitiveness of the cotton sector. • Increase transparency to build cooperation between stakeholders. trust and • Mitigate risks of intra-seasonal price volatility. • Reduce inter-seasonal price volatility. and foster Principles of Pricing Systems • Fair allocation of revenues and risks between producers and ginners. • Producer price determined on the basis of the operating costs of efficient ginners, otherwise ginners’ inefficiencies would be passed on to producers. • Domestic lint competitive with price and quality of imported lint. Price-setting Best Practices • Simple and transparent formula: producer price calculated as a fixed percentage of lint and seeds sales, based on easily accessible and verifiable references. • Flexibility within the season, allowing for adaption to volatile world prices: price to be revised periodically. • Minimum support price. Outlook for Cotton Prices World production exceeding consumption Million tons of lint Production 27 25 23 Mill Use 21 19 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Source: ICAC 08/09 10/11 12/13 World cotton stocks increasing Million tons lint 18 16 China Rest of World 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Source: ICAC 08/09 10/11 12/13 Prices dropped but remain historically high Cotlook A Index (monthly averages; ZMK/kg of lint CFR Far East) 25 000 22 500 20 000 17 500 15 000 12 500 10 000 7 500 5 000 2 500 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Sources:Cotton Outlook & Bank of Zambia Daily Prices - 2012/2013 Crop Cotlook A Index (US cts per lb CFR Far East) 100 95 90 85 80 75 mai-12 juil-12 oct-12 Source: Cotton Outlook janv-13 Zambia in Perspective Zambia in Africa 2011/12 Population 1. 3% Cotton area 10.7% Yield (lint/ha) 59% of African average Production of lint 7.0% Exports of lint 5.0% Mill use of lint 0% Source: ICAC Cotton Production Fluctuates Widely Thousand tons seed cotton 125 100 75 50 25 0 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 Source: ICAC 08/09 10/11 Yield is lower than African average Kilogram of lint per hectare 750 World 500 Africa 250 Zambia 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: ICAC 2008 2010 Ginning Outturn % 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 KEN UG TZ MAL MOZ ZAM Compiled by consultant from various sources ZIM WCA The ginning sector is competitive 2010/11 Tanzania Kenya Malawi Moz Uganda Zambia Zim 75,000 4,000 22,000 26,000 27,000 57,000 103,000 Ginners 37 12 8 9 29 9 12 t/ginner 2,000 325 2,750 2,900 925 6,000 8,600 t lint (Compiled by consultant from various sources) Parameters for 2013 • • • • • • • • • • • Cotllook A Index (04/04/13): 95.70 cts/lb Quotation for Zambian SM 1-1/8” (idem): 99.25 cts/lb December futures price (04/03/13): 88.24 cts/lb Exchange rate (04/04/13): 5,390 ZKW/USD Differential from CFR to FOB: 4 cts/lb Differential from FOT gin to FOB: ? cts/lb Sales price of seeds: ? ZKW/kg Ginning outturn: ?% Farmer cost of production: ? ZKW/kg seed cotton Ginner costs from farmgate to FOT gin: ? ZKW/kg lint Average ginner’s margin: X% of total sales Conclusions • There is no silver bullett for designing a price-setting system. • Pricing systems based on averages fail to cope with high volatility. • Crucial need to have consensus between producers and ginners. • Seedcotton price must be linked to world price of lint. • Seedcotton price is just one component of producers’ revenues: increasing productivity of producers and ginners stands out as the top priority for improving the competitiveness and profitability of cotton production in Africa. Merci pour votre attention ! Attendance No Name Company Position Telephone number Email-address 1 Phiri Masuzyo Janet Student 0977323958 [email protected] 2 Gerald Estur Consultant 0033982499394 [email protected] Wolfgang 3 Bertenbreiter GIZ Project-Director 002609665110093 [email protected] 4 Jesse Kitta Yustina& oil Cotton CC MD 00265991460315 [email protected] 5 Dan Du AST MD 00260969766628 [email protected] 6 Bourne Chooka ZCGA Executive Secretary 0978670016 [email protected] 7 Patrick Nyumbu AGDC Agricultural Manager 0977822506 [email protected] 8 George Sampa CBZ Cotton Inspector 0977763884 [email protected] 9 Mwansa Chalwe CBZ Accountant 0962419531 [email protected] 10 Charles Hayward DZL Agricultural Services 0977888054 [email protected] Signature 11 Ivan Stubbs ZNFU T.A. 0966879833 [email protected] 12 Michael Banda CAZ Vice Chairman 0979751701 [email protected] 13 Hasimuna Keith CAZ Cotton Rep 0967403696 14 Molly Hachilala CAZ Cotton Rep 0979849132 15 Stephen Kabwe IAPRI Outreach Director 0955335928 [email protected] 16 MA CAC VGM 097632009 [email protected] 17 Ireen Chipindi CAC Asst. Adm 0979213598 [email protected] 18 Komani Ngambi CAZ Cotton Rep 0977808942 [email protected] 19 Mweetwa C CAZ Chair Person 0977661125 [email protected] 20 Dube P. IAPRI Intern 21 Lwisya Silwimba CBT A/ Director 0965871628 [email protected] 22 Dafulin Kaonga CBZ Board Secretary 0976047682 [email protected] [email protected] 23 Danford Simusika CAZ EBDO 0977319976 [email protected] GIZ Junior Advisor 0973713580 [email protected] 25 Zombe Sikazwa SEC I Seeds officer (Training) 0977465991 [email protected] 26 Moses Musantu Competition& Consumer Protection Commission Senior Economist 222787 [email protected]/ [email protected] 27 Sydney Mwamba Seed control and certification Institute Seed Officer 28 Julius P. Daka ZEMA Manager Planning& Information 0976389610 [email protected] 29 Anayawa Mutemwa Ministy of Agriculture and Livestock Princicpal Economist 0979-257495 [email protected] 30 Rudy van Gent COMPACI Consultant 0977-784779 [email protected] 31 Emmanuel Mbewe Cargill Zambia Project Manager 0965811208 [email protected] 32 Peter Raubenheimer Cargill RSA Cotton Lead 0833908661 [email protected] 33 Nigel Seabrook Dunavant CEO 0977650065 [email protected] 34 Munir Zaveri Alliance MD 0974280122 [email protected] 24 Daniela Broker [email protected] 35 Dr. W.Mwale CBZ Chairman 0966780497 [email protected] 36 Cosmore Mwaanga MAL CPA 0955211735 [email protected] 37 Tudy Nkonkomalimba CBZ Office Manager 0955999034 [email protected] 38 Georgina Smith CBZ COMM S. 39 Piyush Goyal CGL BM 0260978063560 [email protected] 40 R.K. Bashak GRAFAX OD 0260963808402 [email protected] 41 Mary Mchipuli MAL/AGRIC Director 0260211252029 [email protected] 42 Hans Yamba MCTI Economist 0969993895 226954 [email protected] 43 Catherine Mungoma MAL Director 278236 [email protected] [email protected]
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