Hungary’s external trade posted a record-high surplus in 2016
The upward trend in the external trade, in place since Q2 2013, has continued in 2016: the
volume of both exports and imports rose. The surplus was up by EUR 1.3bn compared to
the previous year, totalling EUR 9.9bn, a historic high in Hungary.
In 2016, the value of exports and imports was EUR 93.0bn and EUR 83.1bn, respectively. The
rate of import growth has slightly, by 0.3 percentage points, exceeded that of exports: the volume
of exports increased by 4.4 percent, while that of imports rose by 4.7 percent. The growth of
both imports and exports was below that of the previous year, but the pace of growth was still
double the 2 percent of GDP growth figure within the national economy.
Concerning the value of trade, due to lower prices, the growth rate was lower than trade volume
growth, increasing in Euro terms by 2.9 percent in case of exports and by 1.5 percent in case of
imports. The terms of trade improved by 1.5 percent.
Fig.1. Change in the volume of external trade in goods,
same quarter of previous year=100%
Import
(%)
Export
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
I.
II. III. IV. I.
II. III. IV. I.
II. III. IV. I.
II. III. IV. I.
II. III. IV.
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office
As far as the EU28’s trade vis-á-vis third countries was concerned in 2016, exports and
imports declined by 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year. The
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surplus was down by EUR 10.6bn, to EUR 39.3bn. The trade conducted among EU countries,
however, gained 1 percent in value in the observed period.
The trade performance of Central and Eastern European countries was slightly better than the
EU average (Fig.2.). The exports of the three other Visegrad Four members increased by 3
percent each, while that of Romania soared by 5 percent and that of Austria was unchanged.
Hungary’s external trade surplus was the second highest in the region, after that of the Czech
Republic.
Fig.2. External trade balance in V4, Austria, Romania and Slovenia (year 2016, bn euro)
25
20
18,6
15
9,9
10
4,7
5
2,2
2,0
0
-5
-4,3
-10
-10
-15
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Poland
Slovakia
Romania
Slovenia
Austria
Source: Eurostat
In 2016, the product categories of machinery and transport equipment as well as fuels and energy
were the main determinants of Hungary’s external trade balance (Fig.3). The value of
exports of machinery and transport equipment, which category accounts for 58 percent of total
exports, increased by 3.9 percent, and that of imports was up by 2.9 percent. Thus, its share
within the total surplus has continued to rise. The primary driver of exports was the automotive
industry and related product groups – road vehicles, power-generating machinery and equipment,
professional-scientific and controlling instruments and apparatus.
Fig.3. Top ten product groups with the largest share of exports (million Euro)
2
20 000
16 706
15 000
11 754
9 144
10 000
3 795
2 905
2 603
2 172
Manufactures of metals, n.e.s.
4 250
Miscellaneous manufactured
articles, n.e.s.
4 448
5 000
Professional, scientific and
controlling instruments and
apparatus
6 330
Office machines and automatic
data processing machines
General industrial machinery
and equipment
Medical and pharmaceutical
products
Telecommunications and sound
recording and reproducing
apparatus and equipment
Power generating machinery
and equipment
Electrical machinery, apparatus
and appliances
Road vehicles
0
Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)
Fig.4. shows to what extent various product groups contributed to the external trade balance.
Thanks to low global crude oil and natural gas prices, the volume of respective imports was
similar to that of the previous year, but their value was down by more than 20 percent, and this
has also improved the balance. The imports of manufactured goods, which account for 37
percent of total and are mainly used for production purposes, saw growth of 4.1 percent, higher
than the increase of exports. While the imports of food, beverages and tobacco products
increased by 6 percent, exports stagnated.
Fig.4. External trade balance by main groups of commodities (million Euro)
3
2016
2015
12394
11557
Machinery and transport equipment
-1309
-1017
Manufactured goods
Fuels, electric energy
-3593
-4619
338
316
Crude materials
2104
2359
Food, beverages, tobacco
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000 12000 14000
Source: Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH)
The share of imports and exports in 2016 conducted with EU member states was similar to
that of recent years: they accounted for 78.1 percent and 79.4 percent of total, respectively. The
increase of export with the EU exceeded the pace of overall trade growth. Nine out of Hungary’s
top ten export destinations were EU member states. On top of the ranking is Germany, with an
outstanding export share of 28 percent. Second- and third ranked Romania and Slovakia
accounted for a much smaller share of about 5 percent each. Among non-EU countries, the
United States of America was the most significant, with a share of 3 percent. The country, to
which exports rose the fastest, 25 percent, was China, mainly thanks to the automotive industry.
In light of international economic indicators analysts predict further expansion in the industrial
sector and exports. Rising domestic investment and household consumption fuelled by real
wages as well as higher oil prices are also believed to lead to import growth that exceeds last
year’s figure and a slightly lower external trade surplus in 2017.
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