Regional Skills
Assessments
Fife
December 2016
Introduction
•An Introduction to Regional Skills
Assessments (RSAs)
•Key Data for Fife
•Implications for Skills Investment
Planning
An Introduction to
RSAs
What are RSAs?
• A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in
skills, built up from existing datasets
• Partnership between Skills Development Scotland (SDS), Highlands
and Islands Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), the Scottish
Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic
Development Group (SLAED).
• Purpose:
• Support SFC, regional colleges, strategic bodies and college boards in
negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for academic
years 2017-2020
• Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and
businesses
• Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
• Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence
Why are they important for skills
planning?
• They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about
economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
• They can be used to identify regional strengths and any issues or
mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and
investment at a regional level.
• They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
• They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills
Planning Model.
Scottish Skills Planning Model
What do RSAs cover?
• Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills,
Education and Training (MAs, Schools), Other Economic Activity,
Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
• Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of seven workbooks,
containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
• With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local
Authority
• The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES,
UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and
partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
• The data matrix is found here:
https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-wedo/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/
• This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area
Fife Overview
• A mixed region, incorporating urban
and rural areas along with affluent
areas and concentrations of
deprivation
• Benefits from its location and
transport links to access jobs and
markets in Edinburgh, the Central Belt
and Dundee. The new Forth Crossing
will enhance two way commuting
• The economy has undergone
significant change with the decline of
traditional industries. It is now
emerging from the impact of the
economic downturn and has had
considerable success in attracting
investment
Business Trends
Business base continued to grow in The number of businesses in
2015, exceeding Scottish growth rate Growth Sectors increased in
9,500
2015 by 5.4% but at 42% of the
business base representation
remains lower Scotland (46%)
9,000
8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
2010
2011
Fife
2012
2013
2014
2015
Scotland index
 +770 businesses in 2015 to 9,010 in
total, +9.3% compared to +7.3%
nationally
 Recent growth concentrated in:
professional, scientific and technical
(+165); other service activities (+135);
and administrative and support
services (+130)
 8,840 businesses (98%) are small or
micro (<50 employees)
 35 employ 250+, accounting for 0.4% of
the business base
 Slightly greater proportions of Growth
Sector businesses in finance and
business services and sustainable
tourism than nationally (37% v. 35%
and 22% v. 18%)
 Relatively low business density with
245 enterprises per 10,000 residents,
compared to 313 nationally
Sector Trends and Specialisms
 Strong group of sectors in
high representation and
high growth quadrant
 Strong employment growth
in public administration
and defence and good
growth in three large
sectors – production,
construction and retail
 Job losses in a mixture of
sectors, some of them in
national high growth
sectors such as
information and
communication, finance
Note: SIC Section A: Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing omitted as data for farm
and insurance and
agriculture (SIC subclass 01000) is not available sub-nationally
business administration
Click here for explanation: Explanation of
Sector Trends and Specialism diagram
Population and Projections
Population of 368,080
 6.9% of Scotland’s total population
(2015)
 At 0.2% increased slower than national
growth rate 2014-2015 (+0.5%) and
over the past ten years 2005-2015 (+4%
compared to +5%)
Forecast Population Growth,
2014-2037
Fife
Scotland
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Population change 2005 – 2015:
0%
-2%
Fife
Scotland
23%
-4%
Total
Working Age
18%
4%
-2%
0%
-2%
0 - 15
16 - 64
65+
 Driven by growth in the 65+ age group
 A decline in the 0-15 age group
 No change in the working age
population
 Reflecting the national picture, Fife is
expected to have a growing population
and a declining workforce
 Population is forecast to grow by
29,500 (8%) to 2037
 Working age population is anticipated
to fall by 6% compared to a fall of 4%
nationally
 Dependency ratios will therefore
increase in Fife as well as in Scotland
and the UK
Employment and Travel to Work
Key destinations for outcommuting are Edinburgh,
Dundee, and Perth and Kinross
73% of working age residents are in
employment, matching Scotland’s
employment rate (2015)
20,000
15,000
76% of those in work are employed
locally:
11%
10,000
4%
2%
5,000
0
Edinburgh
Fife
76%
0%
20%
24%
40%
60%
Home LA
Elsewhere
80%
100%
Dundee
Perth and Kinross
Resident earnings are higher
than median workplace earnings
suggesting commuters are
accessing higher paid jobs
Please note, location of employment figures exclude those
working outside the UK, on offshore installations or
with no fixed place of work
Workforce Trends
Total employment in Fife = 135,800
accounting for 5% of Scotland’s
employed workforce
39% work in higher level
occupations (2015)
 Remains below Scotland average
(42%) but a slight increase from
previous year
 74% work in private sector, compared
to 77% nationally
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
2009
2010
Fife
2011
2012
2013
2014
Scotland index
 4.1% increase 2013-2014 compared to
the 3.2% increase in Scotland as a
whole and 2.7% in GB
 9.8% of workforce are self employed
(10.8% nationally)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in
advance of 2015 BRES release.
Part time employment accounts for
26% of those in employment with the
percentage fluctuating between 24%
and 27% over the past ten years
 6.3% are in non-permanent
employment, higher than for Scotland
Unemployment and Participation
The unemployment rate is 7% (higher than
the Scottish and UK wide averages) and is
in line with Fife’s pre-recession
unemployment rate.
88% of young people aged 16-19 in Fife
are participating, below the Scottish rate
of 90.4%
A higher proportion in Fife (5%) are not
participating, exceeding the Scottish rate
of 4%
12%
10%
8%
6%
100%
4%
90%
2%
80%
88% 90%
70%
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fife
Scotland
60%
50%
40%
Unemployment in the region increased by
1.4ppts whilst nationally it declined (-0.4ppts)
from 2014 to 2015.
30%
20%
5%
10%
4%
7%
6%
0%
% Participation
% Non Participation % Unconfirmed Status
Fife
Scotland
Qualifications and Skills
An increasingly highly qualified
workforce 2005 – 2015
 Proportion of residents qualified to
Level 7+ increased at a faster rate
than nationally over last 10 years
(+16% compared to +12%)
Percentage point change
20
At 43%, the same proportion of working age
adults hold SCQF qualifications at levels 7-12
as for Scotland. This is higher than the UK
average of 37%.
43%
43%
Fife
Scotland
15.8
15
11.8
10
6.4
5
7.3
6.9
0.7
0
-5
-10
-3.7
-5.8
-0.9
-2.8
-1.5
-4.3
Fife
Scotland
In Fife the proportion of the population
qualified to SCQF level 7 and higher
increased faster over 2015 (3ppts) than
across Scotland (2ppts)
Skills Mismatches
 At around a third, similar proportion of
Fife employers report under utilisation
of skills as nationally
56% of Fife employers have
recruited over the past year
(2015), compared to 53%
nationally
 73% of employers with skills gaps
report an impact on the business,
again in line with the national picture
Fife
33%
35%
Skills gaps more likely than in
Scotland overall
 15% of employers report a skills gap in
the current workforce (national = 13%)
 7% of workforce have skills gaps,
compared to 5% nationally
 Gaps particularly prevalent in machine
operatives and admin & clerical staff
 Higher proportion (9%) report at least
one hard-to-fill vacancy compared to
Scotland (6%). In Fife this accounts for
0.9% of the total workforce, with skills
shortage vacancies equivalent to 0.8%
of the total
Scotland
32%
30%
25%
20%
15%
15%
13%
10%
5%
0%
Skills gaps
Skills under-utilisation
Education and Training
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
The secondary school roll in 2015 Modern Apprenticeship (MA) uptake
increased by 10% from 2014/15 to
was 19,905, 7.1% of Scotland total
1,745
 7% of national total in 2015/16
91% school leavers had a positive
destination in 2015, compared to 92%
Construction most popular
across Scotland
framework group
MA
18% of uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 99% male
73% MA achievement rate in 2015/16
Workforce Growth
The size of the working age
population is expected to fall by
slightly more in Fife than in
Scotland as a whole by 2037
By 2037, there will be 13,420 fewer
people of working age, reducing the
scope to raise GVA through increasing
the number of people in work
Challenge in providing the skilled
labour employers need as older
workers retire and their skills are lost
to the labour market
Fife is forecast to have a decline
in the number of people in
employment from 2016 to 2024 (0.2% v. 1.0% nationally) This will
mean 300 fewer people are in
employment
 This would be in contrast to
employment growth across the region
from 2006 to 2016. The number of
people in employment increased by
1,900 (1.3%)
Improving productivity and retaining skills to
contribute to the region’s GVA are central to
increasing economic prosperity
Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at Fife College there were There were over 11,000 students at the
19,290 enrolments
two HEIs in the region in 2014/15
 8% of Scotland’s total
 79% FE and 21% HE
2014/15 students at HEIs in Fife
Total university students
Top three subjects:
University of St Andrews
 Full-time:
Engineering,
Hairdressing,
beauty and comp therapies, Care
 Part-time:
Engineering,
Special
programmes, Computing & ICT
SRUC Elmwood
62% successful completion of FE
courses
College Leaver Destinations
2014/15
Scotland
79%
Further Study
Top three subjects:
 Social
studies,
Historical
and
Philosophical Studies, Physical Sciences
University Graduates by Employment Status
2014/15
Scotland
11%
Work
Other
11,080
1%
16%
86%
290
Total
61%
11%
16% 6% 5%
4%
2%
Fife
Fife
10,790
3%
49%
Full-time work
Further study only
Due to start work
9%
29%
8% 4%
Part-time work
Work and further study
Unemployed
HE/FE data is available at regional level only. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated.
Data provided by SFC and HESA
Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to decline in the short term before posting some moderate growth from 2020.
Average annual growth over the period to 2024 will be 0.1% compared to 0.2% in Scotland. This is equivalent to
the creation of 300 additional jobs in the area by 2024. Manufacturing and public administration & defence are
expected to shed around 2,700 jobs over the forecast. There will also be jobs losses within education. In contrast,
such declines will be offset by gains in construction, professional, scientific and technical activities and
administrative and support activities. Construction employment is expected to increase by 800 by 2024, and both
professional, scientific & technical activities and administrative and support activities by 600 jobs each.
Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024)
Total Employment Growth
Fife Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s), 2016-2024
Fife
Scotland
5%
2002-2015
2016-2024
0%
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
-5%
Construction
Profess, scientific and technical acts
Administrative & support activities
Wholesale and retail trade
Human health & social work
Arts, entertainment and recreation
Accommodation & food servs
Information and communication
Other service activities
Transportation and storage
Real estate activities
Financial & insurance activities
Electricity, gas, steam & air
Mining
Water supply & sewerage
Agriculture
Education
Public administration and defence
Manufacturing
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.4
-1.2
-1.5
Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
The weak employment growth forecast is reflected in relatively static occupational groupings. Some modest
growth is expected in skilled trades occupations and caring, leisure and other service occupations (both 200
workers) as well as managers, directors and senior officials, sales and customer service occupations and
elementary occupations (each 100 workers). The steepest decline will be in administrative and secretarial
occupations (500 workers) and a decrease over the period 2016-2024 is also expected in professional
occupations and associate professional and technical occupations, both with a decrease of 100 workers.
Forecast Changes in Occupational Demand
Fife Employment
Change in number of workers (‘000s), 2016-2024
Managers, directors & senior officials
0.1
Professional occs
-0.1
Assoc professional & technical occs
-0.1
Admin & secretarial occs
-0.5
Skilled trades occs
0.2
Caring, leisure & other service occs
0.2
Sales & customer service occs
0.1
Process, plant & machine operatives
-0.2
Elementary occs
0.1
-1
Note: chart uses total employment (people).
Source: Oxford Economics
0
‘000s
1
Jobs and Skills Changes (3)
The majority of openings in Fife over the forecast will require individuals with higher level qualifications, in
part a reflection of the transition away from manufacturing. Individuals qualified to SCQF level 7 or above
will account for 52% of the 58,200 workers needed between 2016 and 2024. The remaining opportunities
available will mainly be for individuals qualified to level 5/6, equivalent to 35% of openings over the forecast
period. There will be limited demand for those with qualifications below this level.
Forecast Employment Change by Qualification (2016-2024)
SCQF 11-12
SCQF 7-10
SCQF 6
SCQF 5
SCQF 1-4
No qualifications
Total
Expansion demand
700
2,400
-1,000
-300
-1,200
-500
100
Notes:
1. table uses total requirement (people)
2. totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Replacement demand
2,300
24,800
8,600
13,200
3,800
5,400
58,100
Total requirement
3,000
27,200
7,600
12,900
2,600
4,900
58,200
Jobs and Skills Changes (4)
Replacement demand will result in over 58,200 openings within Fife region over the forecast period 20162014. These openings will occur across all types of occupations including those that are expected to decline
in net terms. Expansion demand is expected to result in 100 openings between 2016-2024. However
together with replacement demand, will result in 52,800 openings over this period. Openings will be highest
within elementary and professional occupations. Elementary occupations will experience replacement and
expansion demand over the forecast period although demand will be predominantly driven by replacement.
There will also be strong demand for skilled workers and sales occupations across the forecast period to
2024.
Forecast Demand for Jobs (2016-2024)
Managers, directors & senior officials
Professional occs
Associate professional & technical occs
Administrative & secretarial occs
Skilled trades occs
Caring, leisure & other service occs
Sales & customer service occs
Process, plant & machine operatives
Elementary occs
Total
Expansion demand
100
-200
-100
-500
500
200
100
-100
100
100
Notes:
1. table uses total requirement (people)
2. totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Replacement Demand
2,300
12,500
3,500
5,200
6,500
4,500
5,700
2,600
15,300
58,100
Total Jobs Requirement
2,400
12,300
3,400
4,700
7,000
4,700
5,800
2,500
15,400
58,200
Implications for Skills
Investment Planning
Fife Region: Key Implications (1)
.
Recommended Areas of Focus
•
Increasing the quality of jobs in the region. The most significant recent
employment growth has been in services, including tourism and some parts of the
public sector. The region has grown its financial and business services sector to
some extent, however more needs to be done to increase the number of higher
value added jobs based in the region.
•
Increase the number of jobs in the region. Recent jobs growth has stalled, and
there is a need to re-energise jobs growth. The manufacturing sector is forecast to
decline over time, and there will be a need to replace these jobs. The region also
remains over-reliant on public sector employment.
•
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be
encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills. There will
continue to be extreme competitive pressures in manufacturing, as well as
services, that will demand high levels of business innovation and a skilled
workforce. Employers in the region need to be helped and encouraged to address
the evident workforce skills deficiencies.
Fife Region: Key Implications (2)
.
Recommended Areas of Focus
•
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (1). There are key
sectors and occupations in the regional economy where growth and replacement
demand is strong, including sales, customer services and and skilled trades.
Accommodation and food services sector employment has grown, increasing
demand for hospitality & tourism. These require work-based learning routes into,
and upwards, within sectors.
•
Sectorally, there is a need to meet the needs of employers (2). The health and
social care sector is an important sector, and the ageing population in the region
will have increasing care needs that will need to be met over time.
•
The specific needs of the manufacturing sector must continue to be met.
There will be challenging times ahead for the sector, yet it still contributes a
disproportionate amount of output. Engineering & related skills needs in the
region, will need to be met by fit for purpose provision.
Fife Region: Key Implications (3)
.
Recommended Areas of Focus
•
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is
strongest at the upper and lower skills levels – professional and elementary
occupations – and so progression to upper skills levels needs to be engendered
and facilitated. Employment in the professional services has fallen, and the region
needs to make sure there are sufficient skills to meet employer demand where this
exists.
•
A need to help those outside the labour market to access employment.
There remain inequalities in the region, and the numbers in relative deprivation is
increasing. There is a need to ensure that some groups do not become distanced
from the labour market, or become entrenched in low pay sectors with limited
progression opportunities.
•
A need for flexible provision. Non-permanent employment is increasingly a
feature of the Scotland economy and more of the future jobs are expected to be
part-time. Non traditional employment also means less conventional career paths,
and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with
work-based learning a feature of this.
Explanation of Sector Trends and Specialism
diagram
The Sector Growth diagram allows three pieces of sector information to be displayed, providing a useful overview of
the local economy. The diagram includes:
Sector size (in terms of employment) – shown through the relative size of the dot representing the sector.
Sector concentration relative to the Scottish average – The level of concentration is illustrated on the vertical axis
through the Location Quotient. The Location Quotient is a measure of the concentration of industry in an area
compared to the national average. It produces an index whereby a score of 1 indicates the industry employment
concentration is the same both in the local area and nationally, more than 1 represents a higher concentration and less
than 1 a lower concentration.
Sector average annual growth rate – The horizontal axis shows the average annual employment growth rate of each
sector over the past five year period.
The diagram includes four quadrants:
Top right quadrant - sectors that have shown employment growth and are more highly concentrated in the local area
than the national average
Bottom right quadrant – sectors that have shown employment growth but are less highly concentrated in the local area
than the national average
Top left quadrant – sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are more highly concentrated in the
local area than the national average
Bottom left quadrant - sectors that sectors that have shown employment decline and are less highly concentrated in
the local area than the national average
Click here to go back to the main presentation:
Sector Trends and Specialisms