3AECO - Free Trade and Protection 2. Free Trade and Protection continued PROTECTION • Protection occurs where governments prevent free trade in order to give an artificial advantage to domestic firms when competing with foreign firms. Protection reduces gains from trade. • There are two main types of protection – those which target the prices of imports (eg tariffs) or import-competing products eg subsidies) and methods which target the quantity of imports (eg embargos and quotas) allowed into the country. TARIFFS A tariff is a tax on imported goods. It raises the price of imports and allows domestic producers to raise their prices and expand their share of the domestic market at the expense of foreign producers. Examine the following diagrams to understand how tariffs work. P Sd In a closed economy there are no imports. The domestic market is dominated entirely by domestic firms (Sd). Price to consumers = P who purchase Q1 of the product. P Dd Q Q1 In a completely open economy, imports sell on the domestic market at the world price = Pw. The domestic market becomes part of the world market. Both domestic goods and imports sell at the lower world price. At this lower price consumers purchase more of the product (Q2). Australian consumers are part of the world market. With free trade the supply curve is horizontal, ie. supply is perfectly elastic meaning the supply of imports is unlimited at price Pw. Demand would determine the actual level of imports. (In a small economy like Australia, this is not an unrealistic assumption, ie demand in Australia is too small a proportion of global demand to influence price) Protection P Sd Pw Sw Dd Q Q2 16 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection With our tariff analysis we combine the previous two graphs. P Sd P Pw Sw Dd 0 Qd Q Q 3 Q Q2 1 Market share of domestic (local) firms at price Pw - market share falls to 0Q3 from 0Q2 before free trade Imports share of domestic market at Pw (0Qd2 – 0Q3) When the Australian economy is open to free trade, price must fall from P to Pw. At Pw consumers buy 0Q2 - consumers are better off. 0Q2 represents the Australian market. However domestic firms lose market share to foreign firms. When the market share of local firms falls due to cheaper imports, employment in the domestic industry declines (structural UE). When a tariff is introduced price rises from Pw to Pt (Pt = Pw + tariff). P Sd P Pt Pw Sw Dd 0 Q Q3 Q4 Q1 Q5 Q2 Domestic firms increase market share from 0Q3 to 0Q4. (Total revenue going to domestic firms is Pt x 0Q4). Total market falls from 0Q2 to 0Q5 as consumption contracts due to the higher price, ie. purchasing power (real income) falls. Not only will demand contract in this protected market but the reduced purchasing power impacts on other industries too. Imports are reduced because they are more expensive due to Protection 17 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection the tariff. The tariff goes to the government which receives [(Pt-Pw) x (0Q5 - 0Q4)]. EFFECTS OF A TARIFF • Domestic production rises → employment rises (protective effect) in the protected industry. • Consumers pay more (consumption effect) and have less choice. • Trade declines - imports fall - exports will probably fall too due to retaliation and rising costs of production for exporters due to tariffs on imported components and flow on effects of tariffs in general (exporters can’t pass on cost increases to consumers) international competitiveness declines (trade effect). Lower real income means consumers have less to spend on other goods and services → output and employment fall in the rest of the economy. • Government revenue rises although this depends on elasticity of demand for the protected product. • Resources are reallocated away from competitive, unprotected industries to less competitive, protected industries. Protected firms consume more resources than they would without protection. This means fewer resources available for unprotected firms (ceteris paribus) → factor costs rise as prices are bid up in factor markets → reduced economic activity and less employment growth generally outside the protected sector. • Redistribution of income away from consumers and efficient producers to protected domestic producers and their workers and government. • Overall standards of living are lower and long term economic growth is stunted. Assuming no structural change or reform, over time demand for protection increases as world producers increase efficiency and lower unit production costs. Pw falls requiring a higher tariff level to maintain the same output level in the protected industry. The efficiency gap between domestic and foreign firms increases – Australia’s competitiveness declines. EFFECTS OF TARIFFS Tariffs increase prices of imports and domestically produced goods including exports. Protection assists Local industries by guaranteeing them a larger share of the domestic market. Allows them to charge a higher price and provide additional jobs. Exporters and consumers pay more for inputs and goods. Exporters can’t pass on costs to foreign consumers. Fewer exports - higher costs reduce competitiveness. Consumers have less real income → reduces consumption → hurts domestic firms in goods and services sector. Trading partners may retaliate with protective measures against our exports → less trade hurts exporters. Less growth → fewer jobs →lower living standards. Protection 18 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection Restructuring to cope with tariff reductions When tariff protection is removed, domestic firms can respond in different ways. They can do nothing, in which case their businesses, and employment in those businesses decline, or they can accept tariff cuts and improve the efficiency of their businesses and become more competitive. The motor vehicle industry is a classic example of the latter response. It is now world class in its performance and to illustrate the industry’s success, exports of motor vehicles and components grew from just under $400 million in 1984 to about $5 billion in 2001. This was a result of reducing tariffs on imported vehicles in a series of graduated cuts from 57.5% in 1988 to 5% in 2010. The industry has prospered as a result of tariff cuts! Look at the tariff model below Price Sd Pt 1 - price before tariff cut Pw - price with no tariff Qd - domestic output with protection Qd+m - total output including imports Pt1 Pw A reduction in the tariff will reduce price towards the free trade price (Pw). Show this on the model with a pencil. What happens to the relative market shares of domestic firms and imports? Dd domestic output imports 0 Qd 1 Q(d+m)1 Quantity The diagram below shows the response of a dynamic industry as the tariff is reduced (Pt1 to Pt2) as with the car industry in Australia. In the model, price falls closer to the tariff free price (Pw). With economic reform the local industry becomes more efficient and productivity rises (Sd shifts to the right) and the industry increases its share of the market (Qdt1 to Qdt2). The Australian car industry has restructured and it now exports a large part of its output. Price Sd1 with no reform Sd2 with reform Reduced tariff causes demand to expand. Some of this is met by higher domestic output (0Qd2) and some by more imports. Tariff revenue to government falls (shaded box). Pt1 = Price before tariff cut Pt2 = Price after tariff cut Pw = world or free trade price Domestic output increases due to greater efficiency and higher productivity (Qd 1 to Qd2) Pt1 Pt2 Pw Total market size increases from Q(d+m)1 to Q(d+m)2 Dd domestic output 0 Protection imports Qd 1 Qd2 Q(d+m)1 Q(d+m)2 Quantity 19 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection STUDENT ACTIVITY 2.3 Study the diagram above and answer the following questions. Explain how restructuring in the car industry has enabled the industry to retain a larger share of the car market than it would have had it not restructured. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________ SUBSIDIES STUDENT ACTIVITY 6.2 A subsidy is a payment made by government to domestic firms to encourage production. The subsidy reduces the firm’s costs. Price S Ss Pw imports 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Quantity Q1 = domestic firm’s share of market without subsidy. Pw = price paid by consumers (free trade price). Q2 = domestic firm’s market share with subsidy. Firm’s S curve shifts to right with a subsidy reflecting reduced cost of production which is now partially borne by the taxpayer. Domestic firm’s output rises from Q1 to Q2. Q3 - Q2 = imports after subsidy to domestic firm. EFFECTS OF A SUBSIDY 1. Consumers pay for subsidy through taxes. 2. Domestic firm expands → unemployment falls in that firm. 3. Transfer of income from taxpayers to protected firm and its workers. 4. Unlike a tariff, government receives no revenue - subsidy means there is less money available to spend on other government programs (opportunity cost). 5. Foreign producers lose market share and income → less competition → less incentive for local firms to improve efficiency. Retaliatory subsidies in other countries may result if they can afford them - is unlikely in poor developing countries who suffer most from subsidies in rich countries. 6. Preferable to a tariff because subsidy is paid for from taxes which are raised largely from progressive income taxes whereas tariffs are regressive in their effect. However still imposes costs on the community. Protection 20 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection 7. Misallocation of resources like with tariff → factor costs rise → reduces growth potential in other more competitive areas of the economy. Damages international trade. Protection has definite long term costs. Global experience shows clear benefits when protective measures are dismantled and trade is liberalised. The negative consequences of protective subsidies is illustrated in the extract below from the Australian Financial Review, 25/7/01. Read it carefully and think about the issue of global income disparities. Farmers in Third World countries and small landholders elsewhere are losing out to nations that are subsidizing their agriculture sectors and dominating commodity prices around the world. ... the global trade in farm and food products, ... accounts for nearly 11 per cent of world merchandise trade. But it is a business cruelly distorted and corrupted by a handful of mostly rich countries around the world. Every year, these nations pump nearly $US327 billion in taxpayer subsidies into their agriculture sectors, producing grain and butter mountains and deadening commodity prices around the globe. Leading the spending spree is the European Union, which, according to OECD figures, doled out $US90 billion in 1999, followed by Japan with $US60 billion and the United States with $US49 billion. In many affluent countries, government handouts add up to 40 per cent of farmer’s income, with farmers in South Korea, Switzerland and Norway receiving two-thirds of their income from taxpayers or consumer transfers. Average import tariffs for farm and food products are 10 times higher than for manufactured goods, with many products also drastically limited by quotas. Protection 21 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection STUDENT ACTIVITY 2.4 The following article is an extract taken from the Australian Financial Review’s Editorial of July 14th, 1999. Complete the questions which follow it. Trade reform must proceed The Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, is right to complain bitterly to the Americans about their treatment of Australian and New Zealand lamb. But he was right to reject the inane suggestion from his Trade Minister that Australia must call a stop to trade reform until other countries catch up. As the Prime Minister said, Australia has pursued unilateral trade reform in its own economic interest. The main reason for lowering Australia’s trade barriers is to improve the Australian domestic economy. If other countries also lower their barriers, that’s a bonus, but it’s a small cherry on the cake. Trade reform for the sake of the domestic economy sounds counter-intuitive, but the point is easily seen when it is applied to someone else. Take the Europeans and their agricultural policy. For years Australia has been stressing that the EU would be better off if it allowed its citizens to buy cheaper food grown in Australia and the other agricultural exporting nations. And of course it would. The Europeans are inefficient food producers. Their barriers to agricultural trade means they waste a lot of scarce resources (investment capital, skilled labour, etc.) producing something they could get more cheaply from foreigners. If instead they used those resources to produce the things they make best (mainly manufactured goods and services), everyone would be better off. We’d be richer, obviously, but so would they. Indeed, they’d be the main winners, with more jobs and higher real incomes. What is true for the Europeans is also true for us. Australia’s tariff walls had diverted scarce resources into industries that could never be competitive without government support. After decades of high trade barriers, the Australian economy became so weighed down with inefficient industries that it had one of the lowest productivity growth rates in the OECD. The past decade of tariff reform has been an important factor behind Australia’s improved productivity and economic growth performance in the late 1990s. It has also been an important factor in the rebirth of Australia’s manufactured exports. Tariffs are a hidden tax on exports. When tariffs restrict imports they also cause the exchange rate to appreciate. The overvalued exchange rate, in turn makes exports less competitive. So, as Mr Howard says, Australia pulled down the tariff wall because it was in Australia’s own interest. We should wind down our remaining trade barriers for the same reason. Note: the treatment of lamb refers to the US imposition of tariffs on imported lamb from Australia and New Zealand to protect US lamb producers a) The countries of the European Union heavily subsidise their agricultural producers. Explain how this helps European farmers. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ b) Who bears the cost of these subsidies? What are the opportunity costs? __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ Protection 22 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection c) Tariffs worsen economic inefficiency and hamper productivity growth. Explain. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ d) Explain how reducing tariffs in Australia has helped manufactured exports. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ QUANTITATIVE FORMS OF PROTECTION Embargo - a total ban on an imported product. Consumers can only buy the locally made product. Import Quota - a restriction on the quantity of a product imported. This forces up the price of the product. Domestic producers can then put up their prices. Other Non-tariff barriers - quality standards, local content rules, bureaucratic barriers (red tape), quarantine restrictions. Protection 23 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection STUDENT ACTIVITY 2.5 1. Below is a list of arguments against protection. Your task is to research the arguments in favour of protection and list them in the column below in point form (key words and phrases). AGAINST PROTECTION FOR PROTECTION • Misallocation of resources - resources consumed by protected industries add to competition in factor markets → factor prices ↑ → costs of production higher across economy → reduces competitiveness of Australian goods + services on global + domestic markets → lower economic growth. • Higher prices for consumers – protection adds to inflationary pressures. Import prices rise due to trade barriers → prices of goods + services of protected and unprotected firms rise (due to flow on effects of barriers on production costs). Reduced consumer welfare due to lower purchasing power + less choice. Exporters face rising costs but can’t easily pass them on to their international customers. Consumers can’t access and benefit from factor advantages of other countries when trade barriers exist. • Redistribution of income away from workers + producers in efficient and unprotected industries + consumers to producers and workers in inefficient + protected industries. Tariffs shift income to government away from households and efficient firms. • Retaliation - trading partners retaliate → less trade takes place → lower welfare all round - export industries are hurt when protection is used to shield importcompeting firms. Protection is self-defeating - damages international relations and good will. eg. trade disputes involving USA and China → affects other countries like Australia. Reducing own protection measures (unilateral trade liberalisation) → stronger position to put pressure on other countries to do the same. • Less innovation - protection removes incentives to change + innovate. It removes the need to increase efficiency and productivity. Competition is a driving force behind change + progress → new products, processes, methods + technology. Protection chokes competition therefore stifles innovation and progress. • Tax on exports - protection reduces imports → $A appreciates (cet. par.) → X more expensive and therefore less competitive. • Protection - worsens poverty in poor countries because they can’t get access to protected markets in rich countries for their products. Protection 24 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection 2. The following article from the Australian Financial Review, 15-8-05, argues that exploiting our comparative advantages is the path to improving Australia’s international competitiveness. Read it and answer the questions. More protection simply a recipe for disaster by Alan Mitchell The federal government, the car industry and its unions held a summit last week to discuss the threat to jobs from low-wage producers. Industry Minister, Ian Macfarlane rightly dismissed calls for a return to 1970sstyle industry plans, but the pressure now felt by the car industry raises the question of how manufacturers in general are going to cope with the onslaught of cheap competition from China and the rest of Asia. The answer is by doing more of what they have been doing over the past two decades. For an individual firm or industry, the test of survival usually is expressed in terms of absolute advantage: are the Australian producers costcompetitive? For many of Australia’s clothing manufacturers, the answer has been no. As the Productivity Commission said in a recent review of manufacturing, Chinese clothing workers have caught up with Australian counterparts in terms of productivity, but continue to be paid much lower wages. However, the competitiveness or otherwise of our manufacturers is really the result of Australia’s comparative advantage. Australia has a comparative advantage in producing a good if the “opportunity cost” of producing that good is lower here than in other countries. By opportunity cost, economists mean opportunity forgone to produce something else with the same resources. Comparative advantage can spring from many sources, including differences in climate and technology, but the most famous source of comparative advantage is a country’s endowment of capital and labour. Australia, like other highincome countries, is relatively well endowed with capital, including what economists call human capital, or skills. China, on the other hand, has an abundance of labour, and only a limited amount of capital (human or otherwise) per worker. The real reason Australian clothing manufacturers could not compete with the Chinese is that the Australians had to compete for workers against other Australian industries where capital per worker, productivity and wages are high. And they could not offset this high-wage disability because they had already exhausted the scope for major productivity gains. Manufacturing basic clothing is not an industry for Australia. If we stay in the rag trade, it will be at the high skill end: high-fashion, low-volume clothing and high tech industrial and defence apparel, etc. A similar forecast can be made about the car industry. Excess global capacity and high product development costs have led to consolidation by the traditional manufacturers. The six largest car companies now control 60 per cent of global production. There also has been a shift to global vehicle designs and a rationalisation of component production. At the same time, Australian producers have had to work with less protection. Tariffs have fallen from 57.5 per cent in the late 1980s to 10 per cent. Yet four Australian producers have survived and one or two have even prospered. How? First by raising productivity vehicle production per employee has risen 50 per cent since 1990. Turnover per employee in the component sector has increased 90 per cent. At the same time, they have moved upmarket. The quality of Australian cars and components has improved to the point where they are internationally competitive. And the industry has become Australia’s sixth largest exporter, competing with fellow subsidiaries to supply their parent companies’ global markets. ... Australia’s car industry, like its other manufacturers, will survive by capitalising on our abundance of highly skilled labour, by sourcing offshore components better made in labour-intensive economies, by emphasising quality, by investing in research and development, by adapting global production techniques to small-scale production, and by exploiting niche markets. Unfortunately, this can be only be done by the manufacturers themselves in the heat of the battle for survival. Increasing protection is the surest way to deaden the industry’s competitive instincts. a) Explain the term ‘absolute advantage’ in your own words. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ b) ‘The real reason Australian clothing manufacturers could not compete with the Chinese is that ...’ . Read the full sentence again and explain the reason in terms of opportunity cost. __________________________________________________________________________________ Protection 25 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection __________________________________________________________________________________ c) How does protection ‘...deaden the industry’s competitive instincts’? __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ 3. Multiple Choice: 3.1. A reduction in a particular tariff will in general cause a contraction of output in the industry previously protected by the tariff, followed by an economy-wide expansion of output due to: a) reductions in input prices due to improved resource allocation. b) increases in the overseas demand for exports. c) increases in the price of exports. d) further misallocation of resources. 3.2. A country can use a tariff to produce: a) an expansion of employment in the protected industry. b) an overall improvement in the welfare of the consumers. c) an improvement in the welfare of some producers at no sacrifice to others. d) an increase in exports. 3.3. Protection of domestic industries: a) encourages them to adapt to changing economic circumstances. b) enables them to be sensitive to technological development and shifting consumer tastes. c) helps the maintenance of incomes in the protected industries. d) supports them in competition in international markets. 3.4. Currently the only justification in Australia for tariff protection is that tariffs: a) will stimulate exports to other countries. b) provide an important source of tax revenue for the government in difficult times. c) encourage Australian firms to invest overseas and generate income from profits made overseas. d) reduce the loss of jobs in industries in the short term as they undergo restructuring. 3.5. The political popularity of a tariff on imported goods that compete with products of a well established domestic industry is: a) surprising, since one would expect the political power of consumers to override the interest of even a well-established domestic industry. b) surprising, since one would expect the economic harm resulting from tariffs to be well understood by voters. c) not surprising, since such a tariff would generally benefit an easily recognised interest group at the expense of uninformed and unorganised consumers. d) not surprising, since the tariff enables domestic producers and consumers to gain at the expense of foreigners. Protection 26 3AECO - Free Trade and Protection The next question refers to the diagram. Price S S1 Pw D Q 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 3.6. If the world price is 0Pw and a government subsidy shifts the supply curve from S to S1, then local producers will supply a) 0Q1 b) 0Q3 c) Q1Q2 d) 0Q2 3.7. Arguments for reducing protection focus on: a) mainly job growth opportunities in other sectors of the economy which aren’t protected. b) the allocative benefits of greater efficiency and productivity and boosting international competitiveness. c) achieving necessary structural change in order to prosper in a rapidly changing, more integrated world economy. d) all of the above. Protection 27
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