WHAT OUTCOME DO CANADIANS WANT IN SCOTLAND?
By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto
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Bruce Anderson at [email protected] (613-882-0929) or CEO David Coletto at
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What the people of Scotland decide about their future has captured attention around the
world, including in Canada. And, if it were up to us, Scotland would remain within the UK.
Two thirds (67%) of those polled in our nationwide survey said that they would prefer Scotland
to vote No this week, while one in three (33%) would prefer to see an independent Scotland.
Most of those offering an opinion indicate it is a soft preference (61%), rather than a strong one
(39%). There are some important differences among different parts of the Canadian population:
Quebecers (46%), New Democrats (43%), and those under 45 (43%) are all more inclined to
prefer an independent Scotland. At the opposite end of the spectrum, those over 60 (19%),
CPC voters (20%) and Albertans (21%) are least comfortable with that idea.
The patterns suggest some underlying strains of nationalist empathy in Quebec as well the leftright tension that exists between many voters living in Scotland and the Conservative
government in London.
The fact that preferences are mostly soft in nature suggests that while Canadians would
generally prefer no change, most would be ready to accept the idea of an independent
Scotland, if that is the result that emerges at the end of this week.
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METHODOLOGY
Our survey was conducted online with 1,068 respondents by Abacus Data, September12 to 14,
2014. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large
representative panel of Canadians, recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the
world’s leading provider of online research samples.
The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of
sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based
random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted
according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada's population according to
age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to
rounding.
Abacus Data is an innovative, fast growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate research based
advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service,
attention to detail and value added insight.
Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading
research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO
David Coletto, PhD. For more information, visit our website at http://www.abacusdata.ca/
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As you may know, Scotland is holding a referendum next Thursday to decide whether to become an
independent country from the United Kingdom. What outcome would you personally prefer?
Sample size: 1,068
Comparable MoE: + 3.1%, 19 times out of 20
Fields dates: September 12 to 14, 2015
Region
Gender
Age
Education
2011 Vote
Vote
Intention
Strongly
prefer if
Scotland
separates
from the
United
Kingdom
Somewhat
prefer if
Scotland
separates
from the
United
Kingdom
Somewhat
prefer if
Scotland
stays in the
United
Kingdom
Strongly
prefer if
Scotland
stays in the
United
Kingdom
Raw
Weighted
Canada
11%
22%
39%
28%
1068
1053
BC
12%
14%
37%
36%
129
139
AB
6%
15%
52%
27%
109
109
MB/SK
5%
21%
49%
26%
100
73
ON
9%
22%
38%
31%
379
409
QC
17%
29%
31%
23%
248
246
Atlantic
7%
26%
44%
23%
103
76
Male
14%
21%
33%
32%
547
506
Female
7%
24%
44%
25%
521
547
18 - 29
11%
34%
43%
12%
163
196
30 - 44
11%
32%
39%
19%
311
275
45 - 59
12%
16%
43%
29%
326
319
60 and over
8%
11%
31%
50%
268
262
HS or less
13%
23%
36%
28%
211
377
College
11%
22%
38%
28%
448
396
University
6%
21%
44%
29%
409
280
Conservative Party
7%
13%
41%
39%
342
333
Liberal Party
8%
22%
38%
32%
252
237
NDP
13%
30%
34%
22%
240
230
Green Party
7%
32%
51%
10%
32
28
Bloc Quebecois
40%
44%
14%
2%
31
30
Did not vote
11%
24%
45%
20%
156
181
Conservative Party
9%
16%
38%
37%
260
256
Liberal Party
6%
21%
35%
37%
343
323
New Democratic Party
14%
31%
39%
16%
202
197
Green Party
12%
31%
45%
12%
42
43
Bloc Quebecois
47%
38%
12%
2%
26
28
Undecided
9%
20%
49%
23%
184
196
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