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Three Points About “Belief In” Evolution
Dan M. Kahan
Yale University
& many x 103 others
Research Supported by:
National Science Foundation, SES-0922714
Annenberg Center for Public Policy
Skoll Global Threats Fund
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical
2. Political
3. Philosophical
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political
3. Philosophical
“Belief” in evolution
“Ordinary Science Intelligence”
Assessment
OSI_1.0
OSI_2.0
“Ordinary Science Intelligence” Assessment
18 items
• 6 “Basic facts” (NSF Indicators, Pew)
• 3 “Theory of science” (NSF Indicators)
• 6 Numeracy (Peters et al. 2006)
• 3 Cognitive reflection (Frederick 2005)
2PL Item resonse theory scaling
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Reliability (1-[1/I])
7
8
Dimensionality (principal factor)
2nd percentile
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Factor
14th percentile
50th percentile
86th percentile
Ordinary science intelligence
98th percentile
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
“Religiosity” (Cronbach’s α = 0.80)
OSI_2.0 items plus Evolution & Religiosity items
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”
Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”
Disentanglement principle:
“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between
knowing what’s known & being who they are!”
Disentanglement principle:
“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between
knowing what’s known & being who they are!”
Disentanglement principle:
“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between
knowing what’s known & being who they are!”
Disentanglement principle:
“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between
knowing what’s known & being who they are!”
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political
3. Philosophical
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political: The disentanglement project
3. Philosophical
“Belief” in global warming
Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = 1957.
Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95
confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication
Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).
“Belief” in global warming
77
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming
due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning
fossil fuels.”
0
3
3
3
.6
< avg. Left_right
.3
Conservative
Republican
.2
> avg. Left_right
< avg. Left_right
.1
0
9
9
3
6
9
0
3
6
9
0
3
6
9
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
00
33 > avg.66 Left_right
99
12
15
18
21
1st percentile 16th-1
percentile 50th
percentile
-2.5
0 percentile 84th
1 percentile 99th2.5
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
12Intelligence
15
18
21
Science
avg.
00 low
33 >Ordinary
66 Left_right
99
12
15
18
21
Very
Very
high
12 015 18 21 3
6
9 Comprehension
12
15
18
21
Science
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
0
3
12
15
18
21
66
99
12
15
18
21
12 015 18 21 3
Very low
12 015 18
Very high
21
0
12 15 low18 21
Very
015 18 21
12 0
01
0
0
12
18
21
Very low
12 015 18
21
0
1
0
2
1
< avg. Left_right
.4
9
6
Liberal
Democrat
.5
9
6
6
< avg. Left_right
.7
1203
11 0
6
203
75532342 12316
7566
142533
4
14220 01 03
4421231 0120536
4
10120 0142536
43453 23427567754564 34536765675 456477676 5675 77 676
Probability of correct response
0
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
0
3
2
3
.8
01200
7
7
6
7
6
5
7
6
5
4
1
0
2
1
3
2
4
3
5
4
6
5
5
4
6
5
7
6
7
3
2 0
4
3 1
0
5
4 2
1
6
5 3
2
7
6 4
3
7
0
.9
15
0
12
15
18
3
3
6 Left_right
9 Comprehension
12
15
18
Science
> avg.
33
12
15
Science
66
99 Comprehension
12
15
6
9
12
15
18
21
21
Very high
3
6
9
12
15
18
18
21
21
18
21
Very high
0
Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = 1957.
Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95
confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication
Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).
1
21
3
6
9 Comprehension
12
15
Science
18
21
“Belief” in global warming
77
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming
due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning
fossil fuels.”
Probability of correct response
2342 01 034530120 0145641231 012056752342 12316763453 2342774564 3453 5675 4564 676 5675 77 676
.6
1
0
5
4
0
6
.4
.3
3
6
0
9
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
00
33 > avg.66 Left_right
99
12
15
18
21
1st percentile 16th-1
-2.5
00 percentile 84th
11 percentile 99th2.5
percentile 50th
percentile
2.5
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
12Intelligence
15
18
21
Science
00 low
33 Ordinary
66
99
12
15
18
21
Very
Very
high
12 015 18 21 3
6
9 Comprehension
12
15
18
21
Science
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
12 15 18 21
Very low
12 015 18 21
12
15
18
Very high
3
6 Left_right
9 Comprehension
12
15
18
Science
> avg.
21
21
00
33
66
99
12
12
15
15
18
18
21
21
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1
0
0
2
1
01
3
2
0
4
3
6
> avg. Left_right
< avg. Left_right
.1
9
3
Conservative
Republican
.2
9
0
< avg. Left_right
1231 0
3
Liberal
Democrat
.5
3
2
7
6
1
0
2
1
6
5
0
0
< avg. Left_right
.7
0120
7
7
6
7
6
5
7
6
5
4
6
5
4
3
.8
4
3
7
2
1
5
4
3
2
.9
0
3
6
9
0
3
6
9
Very low
12 015 18
Very high
21
0
Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = 1957.
Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95
confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication
Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).
1
12
15
18
21
3
6
9 Comprehension
12
15
Science
18
21
“Belief” in global warming
Probability of correct response
There is “solid evidence” of recent global warming
due “mostly” to “human activity such as burning
fossil fuels.”
Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = 1957.
Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95
confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication
Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).
1
.9
.8
Liberal
Democrat
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
Conservative
Republican
.2
.1
0
1st percentile
-2.5
00 percentile 84th
11 percentile 99th2.5
16th-1
percentile 50th
percentile
2.5
Ordinary Science Intelligence
Ordinary science intelligence: item response functions
“Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence” (OCSI) battery
“Ordinary climate science intelligence” item response curves
“Climate scientists believe that the
increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide
associated with the burning of fossil
fuels will reduce photosynthesis by
plants.” [True or False]
1
of correct answer
probability
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
0
2
-2
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
2
-2
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
2
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
-2
2
0
.5
1
1.5
2
2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
2
1
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
probability of correct answer
0
-.5
1.5
“Climate scientists believe that globally
averaged surface air temperatures were
higher for the first decade of the twentyfirst century (2000-2009) than for the
last decade of the twentieth century
(1990-1999) [True or false]
1
of correct answer
probability
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
1
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
-1
Ordinary climate science intellience
1
Ordinary climate science intellience
“Climate scientists believe that here will
be positive as well as negative effects
from human-caused global warming.”
[True or false]
.1
-1.5
.5
1
-1.5
Ordinary climate science intellience
0
-2
0
of correct answer
probability
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
-2
Ordinary climate science intellience
“Climate scientists believe that
nuclear power generation
contributes to global warming”
[True or false]
-.5
0
of correct answer
probability
.1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
0
0
-1.5
-1
“Climate scientists believe that
human-caused global warming has
increased the number and severity
of hurricanes around the world in
recent decades.” [True or false]
1
1
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
-2
-1.5
Ordinary climate science intellience
“Climate scientists believe that if the
North Pole icecap melted as a result of
human-caused global warming, global
sea levels would rise.” [True or False]
“Climate scientists believe that
human-caused global warming will
result in flooding of many coastal
regions .” [True or False]
probability of correct answer
-1.5
Ordinary climate science intellience
Ordinary climate science intellience
-2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Ordinary climate science intellience
2
0
-1.5
0
.1
-2
probability of correct answer
“Climate scientists believe that
human-caused global warming will
increase the risk of skin cancer in
human beings.” [True or False]
1
.9
probability of correct answer
.9
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0
probability of correct answer
1
“What gas do most scientists believe
causes temperatures in the
atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen,
helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?”
-2
-1.5
-1
-.5
0
.5
1
1.5
Ordinary climate science intellience
Figures plot the predicted probability of correctly responding to the item conditional on score on OCSI scale. Black bars
denote 0.95 CIs. The figures can thus be used to assess the relative difficulty of the items and the precision with which
they measure differences in comprehension.
2
Ordinary climate science intelligence: item response functions
Ordinary climate science intelligence: item response functions
2
99th percentile
r = 0.32, p < 0.01
1
86th percentile
-1
0
50th percentile
14th percentile
1st percentile
-2
Ordinary climate science intelligence
OSI & Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence (OCSI)
2
1
0
-1
-2
1st percentile
14th percentile
50th percentile
99th percentile
86th percentile
science comprehension
Ordinary science intelligence
OSI & Ordinary Climate Science Intelligence (OCSI)
> avg Left_Right
22
99th percentile
r = 0.32, p < 0.01
11
86th percentile
-1
-1
00
50th percentile
14th percentile
1st percentile
-2
-2
Ordinary climate science intelligence
< avg Left_Right
1st percentile
14th percentile
50th percentile
99th percentile
86th percentile
-2-2
-1-1
00
11
22
comprehension
sciencecomprehension
science
Ordinary science intelligence
OCSI & positions on global warming
9
8
No. correct
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Human caused Naturally caused No warming
Positions on global warming in “past few decades”
Ordinary climate science intelligence: item response functions
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1
Ordinary climate science intelligence: item response functions
-2
-1
0
1
2
Ordinary climate science intelligence: item response functions
Evolution-science communication measurement problem:
What we know
vs.
Who we are
Climate-science communication measurement problem:
What we know
vs.
Who we are
Disentanglement principle:
“Don’t make reasoning, free people choose between
knowing what’s known & being who they are!”
Climate-science communication measurement problem:
What we know
vs.
Who we are
Climate-science communication measurement problem:
How to disentangle
What we know
Who we are
from
Climate-science communication measurement problem:
How to disentangle
What we know
Who we are
from
Climate-science communication measurement problem:
How to disentangle
What we know
Who we are
from
Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N’ = 1957.
Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). CIs reflect 0.95
confidence intervals. Source: Kahan, D. The Science Communication
Measurement Problem, Adv. in Pol. Psych. (in press).
Evolution-science communication measurement problem:
How to disentangle
What we know
Who we are
from
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political: The disentanglement project
3. Philosophical
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political: The disentanglement project
3. Philosophical: Cognitive dualism . . .
The “nonacceptance” problem
The Pakistani Dr. paradox
“Beliefs” as dispositions to action . . . .
Cognitive dualism
Cognitive dualism
4Cognitive
SE Fla. Counties
(summer 2014)
dualism
Beliefs on global temperature “increase in recent decades”
Support or oppose Regional Climate Action P
> Left_right
Pct. supporting
< Left_right
< Left_right
> Left_right
Cognitive dualism
The “nonacceptance” problem
Three points about “belief in" evolution:
1. Empirical: The measurement problem
2. Political: The disentanglement project
3. Philosophical: Cognitive dualism . . .
New data: shame & critical reasoning!
www.culturalcognition.net