Trender och förändringstryck i det globala
landskapet för högre utbildning
Professor Niclas Adler, PhD
Babson Global Professor of Entrepreneurship Practice
[email protected]
Rektorsprogrammet, 12 September 2013
Greene & Hacker. © 2004
Who is Babson?
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Founded in 1919 in Boston, Massachusetts, USA
2000 undergraduate and 1500 graduate students from 80+ countries
First university to introduce Entrepreneurship as a subject
Since 20 years back the recognized global leader in Entrepreneurship
and no 1 in all global rankings
200 core-faculty, more than half with extensive international
entrepreneurial and/or venture capital experience
Brings entrepreneurial mind-set, curriculum, teaching approaches and
portfolio of activities to the global business school community
Small and focused but engaged in big things with global impact
Mål med eftermiddagen
Få till en diskussion runt viktiga trender och
förändringstryck samt vad de innebär i termer av
möjligheter och utmaningar för de medverkande
lärosätena
Få till en diskussion runt erfarenheter och alternativa
förhållningssätt och ledningsmodeller
Agenda
Överblick av viktigaste trender och
förändringstryck
Reflektioner runt speciella utmaningar för
lärosäten
Erfarenheter ifrån nya typer av engagemang
för lärosäten
Introduktion av “CreAction” som en
alternativ ledningsmodell
SWOT diskussion för medverkande lärosäten
Vad händer just nu?
• Snabbt ökande antal studenter i högre utbildning, 130 miljoner
(fördubbling varje 10-årsperiod)
• >30,000 universitet globalt varav 54 har >100,000 inskrivna
studenter. Störst är Indira Gandhi Open University med fler än 3,5
miljoner studenter
• Globalisering av det mesta (handel, marknader, finansiering, kultur,
sjukdomar, nätverk, talang…) inklusive av antalet internationella
studenter, 5 miljoner (tre gånger så många varje 10-årsperiod)
• Snabb introduktion av nya tekniska möjligheter, pedagogiska
tillvägagångssätt och nya initiativ att effektivt överbrygga avstånd
och hantera skalbarhet i högre utbildning
• Snabb tillväxt för privata och kommersiella aktörer med mer än
50% av globalt nyantagna studenter 2012
Viktiga frågor som behöver adresseras i ett
uthålligt internationaliseringsarbetet:
• Vad kan lärosätet erbjuda som är intressant för de mest
intressanta internationella studenterna, mest
intressanta lärarna, mest intressanta samarbetspartners
och mest intressanta arbetsgivare…?
• Kan lärosätet erbjuda detta med realistiska kostnader
som möjliggör en uthållig verksamhet?
• Kan lärosätet utveckla uthållig konkurrenskraft för dessa
erbjudanden?
• Hur implementerar lärosätet bäst dessa erbjudanden
och vad kommer att krävas för att bli framgångsrik?
Distribution of Global
Origin of Patent
applications
Origin of scientific
citations
Vad vet vi om universitet och deras förmåga
att anpassa sig till nya förutsättningar
• 13 av världens 20 äldsta organisationer är
universitet
• Affärs- och verksamhetsmodeller har 800-åriga
rötter
• Produkt och affärsutveckling drivs ofta
resursbaserat inifrån-ut
• Nyckelpersoner och opinionsledare har sin
identitet närmare kopplad till sin professionella
tillhörighet än till sin arbetsgivare
• Ledningen har begränsat inflytande på budget,
rekrytering och befodran
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
1
Lärosäten är byggda på idén att komplexa
problem bäst hanteras genom en hierarkisk
nedbrytning
... och att effektivitet bäst uppnås genom
funktionell specialisering och minimering av
beroenden
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
2
Lärosätens organisationer är byggda för kontroll
och förutsägbarhet snarare än
experimenterande
... där planering och minimering av avvikelse
ifrån planer blir viktigare än att söka eller
fånga nya möjligheter....
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
3
Lärosätenas organisationer är ofta
ackumulerade lösningar på historiska problem
... och det finns ett inbyggt försvar av lösningar
som tidigare visat sig fungera
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
4
Beslutsfattande i lärosäten överskattar normalt
möjligheterna med att göra som man tidigare
gjort och riskerna med att göra på ett annat
sätt
....även om nya möjligheter ofta identifieras så
är det sällan några resurser allokeras till dem
eller att de faktiskt realiseras....
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
5
Tydliga gränser i lärosätenas organisationer
utgör grunden för saker som ansvar,
förväntningar, beslutsfattande,
resursallokering och utvärdering...
...samtidigt som nya idéer, innovationer och
genombrott oftast uppstår i gränserna och i
samspelet...
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
6
Det finns få incitament för att utmana de
etablerade strukturerna och
tillvägagångssätten på ett lärosäte
... men däremot ganska många för att bevara
sakernas tillstånd.....
Utmaningar för att leda förändring
7
Det finns normalt ingen tradition, erfarenhet,
kapacitet eller kompetens för att bedriva
systematiskt FoU arbete runt lednings och
organiserings frågor på lärosäten
... men däremot ganska många uppfattningar
och anekdoter.....
BENSTRÄCKARE
…..och funderingar på vilken roll en
rektor kan spela i att leda förändring och
anpassa verksamheten efter nya
möjligheter och utmaningar
New York University
• Largest independent research university in the United States
• “NYU has embarked on the project of becoming a Global
Network University, a university that challenges the idea that a
university can only deliver education at a single home
campus. Instead, we have created a structure that allows
students and faculty to gather in a set of key locales around
the globe to forge new ideas, advance the questions we ask
about the world, and create solutions for the problems that
beset us all”.
• With three prime campuses: New York, Abu Dhabi and
Shanghai, as well as 11 international academic centers in
Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, NYU
offers global experiences to all members of its community
20
What would rational thinking and behavior
look like in the face of unknowability?
You either sit and
think or you act…
How to act smartly?
• Take small
But,steps
you with
can’twhat
think
you’ve got at hand
your way into an
• Limit theunknowable
risk for each future.
step
• Make sure you are stepping
the only
on firmTherefore,
ground – reality
logical
• Build off what you actually
is toor
act.
find, whetherthing
it be good
bad
• Have some friends and/or
resources standing by to
help or rescue
• …
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Where Entrepreneurial Universities need to Play?
Everywhere
Existing Market
New
Market
Opportunities
Adapt
are largely
(evolutionary)found
Existing
Product
Manage
(incremental)
New
Product
CreAction –
Opportunities
the
Logic
of
Creating
and
Extend
Create are largely
Suicide
made
taking
Action
(evolutionary)
(revolutionary)
Quadrant
unusual in their comfort
and preference for this
quadrant
Fuels CreAction
 Entrepreneurs and innovators are always
doing what they want, or something that will
get them what they want.
 In the face of the unknown, it makes no
sense to act unless you want to, whether
you have to or not.
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Satisfice Instead of Optimize
Predictable Environment
Unknowable
Environment
Optimizatio
Satisficing
Optimization
n
isisimpossible
possible
Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon
Satisfy (desire) + Suffice (good enough,
not necessarily optimal or “the best.”)
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24
CreAction: Leveraging
Entrepreneurial Thought & Action
A method
for creating the things that really matter to you
by taking swift, confident
and smart action when faced
with the unknown
Two Different Kinds of Reasoning
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Prediction
 Inductive and deductive logic
 Mathematical tools and other
analytic methods
 Rules of thumb
 Core logic of virtually all
educational settings
 Core logic of large
organizations
 Works superbly to the extent
that the future can be divined
or extrapolated from the past
CreAction
 Favored by serial
entrepreneurs 89% of the time
 Favors what is real and
confirmable over projections
and assumptions
 Smart Action trumps analysis
 Suitable when the future
cannot be predicted from the
past
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CreAction is driven
byarea,
Intriguing
attractive
partners
Sufficient to
get started
Act quickly with means at hand
Act
quickly
withon current reality: who you
CreAction
based
know, what
you know and anything else relevant
means
at hand
Pay only what you can afford to
Pay
can
and only
wantwhat
to – you
Affordable
Loss
afford
to time,
and reputation,
want to –psychosocial
• Money,
ACT
•Affordable
OpportunityLoss
cost
ACT
Bring others along
Bring
others
along
• Tangible
sales,
assets and other
Act
Clear, sharply
defined, robust plan
Build on the results
you create and the
things you discover
• Surprises are
often good
• Befriend reality
continuous
“Action
Learning”
Experience
“borrowed” resources
Learn
• Intangible assets (ambassadors,
reputational capital) through enrollment
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THE FOUR ELEMENTS
of CREACTION
 Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
 Pay only what you can afford to
and want to – Affordable Loss
 Bring Others Along
 Build On the Results You Create
and the Things You Discover
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Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
Who you are
What you know
Whom you know
Anything else real and relevant
Sarasvathy
29
THE FOUR ELEMENTS
of CREACTION
 Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
 Pay only what you can afford to
and want to – Affordable Loss
 Bring Others Along
 Build On the Results You Create
and the Things You Discover
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Pay only what you can afford to and want to
Affordable Loss vs. expected return
What can I afford to pay to take the next step?
based on reality
What am I willing to pay to take the next step?
based on desire
 Money
 Time
 Professional &
Personal Reputation
 Psychosocial
 Opportunity Cost
 …..
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THE FOUR ELEMENTS
of CREACTION
 Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
 Pay only what you can afford to
and want to – Affordable Loss
 Bring Others Along
 Build On the Results You Create
and the Things You Discover
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Contrasting Selling and Enrollment
Selling
Enrollment
Essence
Commercial transactions; i.e.
an exchange of real things
Emotional/Spiritual transaction.
It is most similar to an exchange
of gifts
Process
Selling, persuading
Inspiring, sharing
Commercial transactions; Emotional/Spiritual
Essence
i.e.
an exchange
of real
transaction.
It is most
Cost/Benefit
analyses
Conversations
Tools
Who
is
the
Selling,
persuading
Inspiring,
sharing
Someone
is
either
a
The
others’
desire
Can
be
minimal
or
Cost/Benefit
analyses
Conversations
Process
Tools
Nothing
Broad.
whoofis
Everyone
things necessarily.
similar toThe
an person
exchange
Propagation,
Essential
customer
or
they
are
not
“other”
to
support
youafter non-existent
It can be a one-off
enrolled
spreads the
gifts
i.e. what
happens
Someone is either a
transaction.
the initial encounter iscustomer
or they are not
Who is the “other”
complete
The others’ desire
to support you
Propagation,
i.e. what happens after
the initial encounter is
complete
Everyone
message.
Can be minimal or nonexistent
Essential
Nothing necessarily. It can
be a one-off transaction.
Broad. The person who is enrolled
spreads the message.
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THE FOUR ELEMENTS
of CREACTION
 Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
 Pay only what you can afford to
and want to – Affordable Loss
 Bring Others Along
 Build
Build On
On the
the Results
Results You
You Create
Create
and
the Things
and the
Things You
You Discover
Discover
34
Build On the Results You Create
and the Things You Discover
 You have acted. Now take stock
of the new current reality.
 The last step either turned out
the way you hoped, in which
case, celebrate your success
and get started on your next
step.
…or it didn’t
35
Surprises are Good
You’ve learned
something that
perhaps no one
else knows.
Befriend Reality, or you are going to
miss something important
 A surprise can point to new
opportunities
 A surprise can be a problem.
Solve it if you can. Your solution
will become your asset.
 If you can’t solve the problem, get
creative! Assume it will
perpetually exist and you cannot
eliminate it. Then try to turn it into
an asset and build your next step
around it.
36
CreAction
Prediction
Goal
Goal3
Goal
Goal Goal2
?
Stay on
Target
?
Get back
on Plan
Start
Start
Start
37
Prediction
CreAction
Now, see how different they are when you
Notice
how
they
look!
encounter
an different
impenetrable
obstacle
Goal
Goal
Start
Start
Goa
l3
Goa
l2
38
When to Stop?
Continue until:
• You don’t want it, and/or
• You exceed your Affordable Loss, and/or
• You prove to yourself it cannot be done.
39
Issue
View of
the Future
View for
Basis
of the Future
Commitment
and
Action
Basis
for
Basis
for
Commitment
and Actions
Commitment
and Action
Actions
Prediction
CreAction
Prediction. The future is a continuation of the
CreAction. The future is contingent on human
past and can be acceptably predicted.
action. Unpredictability itself is seen as a
resource.
Prediction.
Creation.
Should.
Want
(& Can).
The future is a continuation The future is contingent on
Goals
not necessarily
of the determine
past and sub-goals
can be and (which
humanisaction.
Goals. Clarity
of goalsThorough
drive a resource
at hand.Your
effects can I means
create
actions.
analysisis Means
“best.”)
desires,
acceptably
predicted.
Unpredictability
itself
isas
Goals.
aClarity
lot.
Actdo
ofonce
Means
Start
atWhat
Hand.
as soon
What
acquisitionThink
process. What
means
I goals
need to itdrive
with the
meansacting
I have?
and
actual
commitments
assemblelogical
to resource
achieve these
goals?
seenthe
ascan
aAs
resource.
aprecedes
to action.
achieve
acquisition
the end
effects
you
can.
I create
soon
aswith
it’sthe
of
others
form
the
sub-goals.
Think a process.
lot.
Act onceis
itWhat
isachieved
logical means
to achieve
acting asto
as the
you can.
Control
bydo I Startlogical
means
Isoon
have?
take
next step
Time
and/or
other
resources
the end.
As soon as it’s logical to take the next step
accurately
predicting
Controland
is achieved
bywith
need
Your
next
to assemble
step
is based
to theon Actions
are
invested
in upfront
interactions
Your next step
is based
on the
previous thought
Your next
step is based
on
reality—theand
results
future
and
positioning
“doing
the
doable”
achieve
the
previous
these
thought
goals?
Your
next
step
is
based
on
information-gathering
others
precede
and
drive
the
of your action
yourself to catch the wave. reality
continually
– thetransforming
results
of your
entire
process
of innovation
Should. Do what you ought to do based on
Can and Want. Do what you want and are
Accuracy
of prediction
current
into
new
what is “best.”
Goals determine
sub-goals and is able toaction
do (which isrealities
not necessarily
“best.”)
Optimizing
actions. Thorough
analysis precedes action.
Your desires,
meansenergies
and the actual
Creative
are focused
paramount.
and
unforeseen
commitments of others form the sub-goals.
on
building a venture with
Time and/or other resources are invested in
possibilities
Control is achieved by accurately predicting the
Do what you ought to
Do what you
future and positioning yourself to catch the wave.
Control is achieved by “doing the doable” and
Accuracy of
paramount.
transforming
doprediction
basedis on
what is “best.” continually
want
and arecurrent
ablerealities
to dointo new
and unforeseen possibilities
upfront information-gathering
Optimizing
Actionsvirtually
and interactions
with others precede
no resources
invested
and drive the entire process of innovation
Satisficing
Creative energies are focused on building a
venture with virtually no resources invested
Satisficing
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Issue
Attitude Toward
Investment and
Risk
Prediction
Expected Return. Calculate upside
CreAction
Affordable Loss. Calculate downside potential
and pursue (risk adjusted)
best
and pay
no more than youLoss.
want or can afford to
Expected
Return.
Affordable
Attitude Towardpotential
opportunity
lose
Calculate
upside
potential
Calculate
downside
Competition.
Constrain
Partnership.
Build your
Attitude
Investment
Risk management involves the careful
Risk management involves keeping failures small
and
pursue
(risk adjusted)
potential
andearly,pay
no
more
task
relationships
with
market
together
of failure
and having
them happen
andwith
then building
Toward
and
RiskOthers avoidancebest
upon them
opportunity
thanfor future
you success.
want or can afford
customer and suppliers to
customers, suppliers and
invests only what he or she can
Risk
to
loseprospective
whatmanagement
is necessary involvesEach stakeholder
even
afford to or is willing to lose
the
careful
Bring
planavoidance of
Redesign Plan and even
competitors
Dealing with
Dealing with
Bring plan
back
on track
track of deliveringRedesign
andto
even
the vision
to
failure
Risk
management
involves
back
on
the plans
vision
profit
from
The
likelihood
Unexpected
profit from
surprises
Unexpected
To
the
extent
we
can
To
extent
wesmall
canand
keeping
failures
surprises
on your targets dictates
Thethe
people
who
come
on
predict
the
future,
we
can
create
the
future,
we
do
Underlying
Logic
having
them
happen
Attitude Toward
whom
to bring
on board Partnership
board. Build
help
the
Competition
. Constrain
task relationships
yourdetermine
market
togetherearly,
control
it
not
need
to
predict
it
Others
with customer and suppliers to what is
with customers,
suppliers
and even upon
and
goalsthen
andbuilding
shape
of the
necessary
prospective competitors
them
for and
future
venture
its success.
market
The likelihood of delivering on your targets
dictates whom to bring on board
Underlying Logic
To the extent we can predict
the future, we can control it
The people who come on board help
determine the goals and shape of the
venture and its market
Each stakeholder invests
what
hecreate
or she
To theonly
extent
we can
the can
future,
we do to
notor
need
predictto
it lose
afford
is towilling
41
 Vilka är era lärosätens och ert ledarskaps
styrkor, svagheter, möjligheter och hot med
avseende på de globala förändringar som
högre utbildning genomgår?