“A great place to learn”
OLDHAM’s STRATEGY
FOR THE PROVISION
OF EDUCATION
PLACES
2016 - 2020
CONTENTS
Foreword
Page 3
Introduction
Page 4
Principles and local context
Page 5
Needs analysis
Page 6
Funding streams for capital works
Page 7
Revenue Funding Implications
Page 10
Decision making and governance
Page 11
Variables over the lifetime of the Strategy
Page 14
Glossary of terms
Page 15
Appendix A: Schools in Oldham
Page 18
Appendix B: Annual School Capacity Assessment 2015
Page 27
Appendix C: Pupil forecasting methodology
Page 35
Appendix D: Decision Support Matrix
Page 57
Appendix E: Draft Academy Conversion policy
Page 62
Appendix F: Education Provision Group, Terms of Reference
Page 63
Appendix G: Schemes considered as priority – January 2016
Page 69
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April 2016
FOREWORD
Councillor Amanda Chadderton
Cabinet Member for Education and Early Years
Oldham Council, along with many other local authorities nationally, is facing the
significant challenge presented by the increase in demand for school places. The
current pressure on primary school places is set to hit the secondary sector in
2016/17 and beyond.
The report of the Oldham Education & Skills Commission, “A self improving
education system” was published in January 2015. It sets out the vision for the future
of education in Oldham. “A good education system is crucial to the future success of
Oldham. Whether it is top quality schools, excellent colleges or successful training
providers, the town and its citizens need high education standards and a highly
skilled workforce.” This is reinforced in the statement made by the leader of the
Council; “To succeed we will have to move towards a culture where education is
everyone’s business.” Key to the delivery of the vision is the aim that all schools in
Oldham are good schools serving their local communities.
Whilst schools have a high degree of autonomy in this regard, the way that schools
are organised and the policies that the Council adopts play a fundamental role in this
overarching aim. The government continues to articulate an urgent need to reform
our school system to prevent the standard of education in the UK from falling further
behind that of other countries and that it intends to create a more autonomous and
diverse school system that offers parents choice and concentrates on improving
standards. This strategic document provides the context and policy for the provision
of education places in Oldham for children and young people aged 2 – 19.
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April 2016
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Councils have a statutory duty to ensure there are enough school places available
to local children and young people. No other local or national body shares with
them the duty to secure sufficient primary and secondary schools, although they
increasingly have to work with schools and other partners to deliver the places
needed.
1.2
This strategic document provides the context and policy for the provision of
education places for children and young people aged 2 – 19. The information
may prove useful for schools and education providers in the context of their own
development planning.
1.3
Oldham Council, along with many other local authorities nationally, is facing the
significant challenge presented by the increase in demand for primary school
places. The current pressure on primary school places is set to hit the secondary
sector in 2016/17 and beyond.
1.4
Future demand for school places is predicted using an agreed formula that takes
account of birth rates, inward migration and proposed new housing. Additional
primary school places have been created through a number of school expansion
projects and the creation of a new three form entry primary school in the town
centre. Current forecasts indicate that significant investment in the secondary
schools’ capital estate will be needed to meet a known shortfall in 2016/17 and
2017/18 in order to accommodate the increased numbers of students moving
through from the primary phase. There will be a further predicted shortfall in the
2021 – 2024 period which will require further significant investment
1.5
In order to deliver its statutory responsibilities around the provision of school
places, Oldham Council will seek to provide standardised design solutions based
on the Education Funding Agency’s (EFA) baseline template wherever possible,
in order to minimise costs and timescales. The process to identify schools for
expansion or new build projects will follow the published criteria set out at
Appendix D of this document. Oldham Council will always take governing body
views into account when reaching decisions.
1.6
The report of the Oldham Education and Skills Commission (OESC) sets out the
vision for the future of education in Oldham. The recommendations of the
published report will be given consideration within the decision making process for
creating additional school places.
1.7
The Regional Schools Commissioner (RSC) for Lancashire and West Yorkshire
works with school leaders to promote and monitor academies and free schools
and is responsible for decisions regarding new academy and free school
sponsors, approving new academies in the area and intervening in
underperforming academies and free schools.
1.8
The population growth forecast across the Greater Manchester authorities will
continue to create increased demand and consequent pressure on school places.
Consideration is being given to the development of a GM pupil forecasting model
as part of the proposed GM Education, Employability and Early Years Devolution
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April 2016
Programme. The aim would be to consolidate fragmented pupil place planning
processes and school estate capital.
2.
PRINCIPLES AND LOCAL CONTEXT
2.1
The report of the OESC, “A self improving education system” was published in
January 2015; available on the Oldham Council website: www.oldham.gov.uk. It
sets out the vision for the future of education in Oldham: “A good education
system is crucial to the future success of Oldham. Whether it is top quality
schools, excellent colleges or successful training providers, the town and its
citizens need high education standards and a highly skilled workforce.” This is
reinforced in the statement made by the leader of the Council; “To succeed we will
have to move towards a culture where education is everyone’s business.” Key to
the delivery of this vision is the aim that all schools in Oldham are good schools
serving their local communities. Whilst schools have a high degree of autonomy
in this regard, the way that schools are organised and the policies that the Council
adopts play a fundamental role in this overarching aim.
2.2
Whilst there is mention of all phases in this document, the focus is with school
provision. Its purpose is to help the Council and other stakeholders to understand
the projected need for school places in Oldham. Information relating to the
provision of early years education and 14-19 education are covered in other
documents which can be found on the Oldham Council website:
www.oldham.gov.uk.
2.3
When seeking to manage the demand and supply of school places in Oldham,
Oldham Council will take into account the diverse range of provision and
educational organisation arrangements that are working well and those that are
not working as well. When new or changed provision is considered the Council
will seek to influence any proposals to secure high quality educational provision
for its citizens. The Council works with all education institutions, the RSC and
academy and free school sponsors to secure high standards ensuring parents
have a real choice in selecting appropriate provision for their children. The
current school and college estate is shown at Appendix A.
2.4
The White Paper, “Educational Excellence Everywhere”, published in March 2016,
sets out the current government’s vision for schools in England and its plans for
the next 5 years, building on and extending existing reforms to achieve
educational excellence everywhere. The paper is built upon the five guiding
principles of the DfE’s strategy, concluding that in order to put the principles into
practice, the government’s intention is that it will move to a system where every
school is an academy.
2.5
The DRAFT Oldham Council policy for Academy Conversion (final policy due
June 2016), Appendix E, sets out the council’s position when a school converts to
academy status. Academies become independent of local authorities and
conversion leads to changes in responsibilities, finance and working relations
between local authorities and academies. The policy and guidance outline the
approach that will be taken by the Local Authority and offers practical advice and
guidance on how governing bodies should approach the issue of conversion and
how the Local Authority (LA) will manage the conversion process.
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April 2016
2.6
When a school converts to an academy it receives its funding direct from the
Education Funding Agency (EFA): the Dedicated School Grant (DSG) received by
Oldham is consequently reduced. The Local Authority will lose £87 per pupil
based on current funding rates as a result of a school converting to an academy.
In real terms this means that a one form entry school converting to an academy
will result in an estimated reduction in Oldham’s revenue funding received from
the Educational Services Grant (ESG) of £18.2k.
2.7
Free Schools are funded by the government in the same way as mainstream
schools and academies. However in the first year of opening the EFA retains the
funding and allocates it direct to the free school. In the second year of opening
the funding is added to the LA DSG allocation and recouped under the same
process as for academies. This means that LAs provide an individual schools
budget (ISB) for primary and secondary schools on the authority proforma tool
(APT) that they submit to the EFA in January of each year, as they do for an
academy. Growing free schools and academies create pressures for the LA as
the funding allocated in the 2nd year of opening would not reflect any expected
increase in pupils in the September of that year as the funding is based on the
pupil numbers in school submitted the previous October. This pressure would
continue until the school is full and all pupils appear on the school census.
3.
NEEDS ANALYSIS
3.1
The school capacity survey (SCAP) is a statutory data collection that all local
authorities must complete every year. The 2015 SCAP return and commentary is
at Appendix B. LAs must complete statutory collections by law unless they have a
very good reason not to. SCAP is based on data collected in the January Schools
Census about:
 school capacity (i.e. the number of places and pupils in a school)
 pupil forecasts (i.e. an estimation of how many pupils there will be in future)
 capital spend (i.e. the money schools and local authorities spend on their
buildings and facilities)
3.2
The Department for Education (DfE) and the EFA use the data to identify areas
where there may not be enough school places and also use projections of pupil
numbers to calculate the basic needs funding local authorities receive to provide
enough school places to meet future demand.
3.3
Oldham Council has developed an agreed forecasting methodology, set out at
Appendix C. The forecast is refreshed on a termly basis to reflect the latest trends
and maintain accurate data.
3.4
The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is an evidence based methodology to support
the LA’s decision making process for school expansion projects.
The DSM, set
out at Appendix D, will ensure that the process is open, fair and transparent and
that decisions are made consistently based on evidenced criteria thresholds. At the
pre-decision consultative stage, schools within the locality will be approached to
gain their views on any proposals.
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April 2016
4.
FUNDING STREAMS FOR CAPITAL WORKS
4.1
Capital expenditure can be funded from a number of different sources, the most
common of which are expanded on in further detail below.
4.2
Basic Needs Funding
On an annual basis the DfE awards Basic Needs funding to individual Local
Authority areas. This is a sum based upon the perceived need for additional
school places calculated from the SCAP data. Although non-ring fenced this
annual grant is intended to be used by local authorities to provide additional
school places. Basic needs funding, whilst being an annual award, is notified 3
years in advance to help local authorities to plan and prioritise their capital
investment programmes.
4.3
Free Schools
Free schools are schools set up by an organization or a group of individuals,
funded by the government but not controlled by the local authority. The creation
of free schools is one of a number of central government initiatives to widen
parental choice and improve educational standards.
Under a government initiated programme to provide additional school places and
to provide an alternative model to local authority controlled schools the EFA run a
programme to create new free schools.
When considering the need for additional school places in the borough it may be
possible, subject to elected members’ agreement, to work with the EFA to
promote the creation of one or more free schools to create additional places.
The capital funding and construction of free schools is normally centrally run by
the EFA and any funding spent by the EFA under this route is likely to be reflected
in basic need funding awarded to the local authority.
4.4
Prudential borrowing / Council resources
Should the Council consider the provision of additional school places or physical
improvements in existing buildings to be a priority, and for which there is not
sufficient external funding, Members could decide to approve use of council
resources.
Sources of council funding include:
 Capital receipts – generated from the sale of council owned land or
property;
 Prudential Borrowing – which would be paid for in future years over the life
of the asset and create a charge annually to the revenue budget.
 Revenue funding – it is possible to allocate revenue funding to directly
finance capital expenditure.
4.5
Devolved Formula Capital (DFC)
DFC is capital funding devolved direct to schools by the DfE with the aim of
enabling individual schools to target capital funding in line with their own asset
management priorities. The asset management priorities are listed in each
schools asset management plan which is agreed with the school and its
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April 2016
governors and property officers.
4.6
One off government grant processes
On an occasional basis central government organise programmes or discretionary
grant processes which are directed towards the funding of projects related to
school building.
In recent years these grant schemes have included: Priority School Building Programme – rebuilding old school buildings
 Targeted Basic Need Programme – creating additional places over and
above basic need to reflect specific population pressures and bulges
 Priority School Building Programme Phase 2 – addressing condition
issues by either refurbishment or rebuilding
Whilst Oldham has historically been relatively successful in applying to these
programmes they are not a predicable source of funding and as such cannot be
relied upon as part of a sustainable strategy. Officers will however through their
best endeavours ensure that if and when should they arise in the future, the
funding programmes will be reviewed and discussed with Members. This will
include a review of potential projects to determine whether any applications
should be made and, if so, for which schemes.
4.7
If a school under local authority control elects to convert to Academy status there
will under certain circumstances be a need for the carrying out of capital works.
The need for and the extent of these works will be evaluated in line with the
“Academy Conversion Process Paper”. Works will not be immediately accepted
as being necessary upon a school proposing conversion.
4.8
The Capital cost of any works associated with Academy conversion will need to
be funded from existing Council resources. If such work has not previously been
included within the capital programme it will need to be addressed.
All proposed capital expenditure is initially presented for approval to the Capital
Investment Programme Board (CIPB). Depending on the level of the resources
required, approval of an allocation of capital resource may then be via delegated
authority or by Cabinet. The Education Capital Programme 2016 to 2021 is
shown in the table below.
The current Education Capital Programme 2016 to 2021 is shown in the table
overleaf:
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April 2016
Education Capital Programme
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Programme
Project
2016/17 2017/18
Budget budget
(£000)
(£000)
Total
£(000)
Capital Asset
Management (Funded
via Schools Condition
allocation maintenance works
approved through
Council's Corporate
Property function
Bare Trees( infants) School - roofing Essential Condition (Mar´14)
25
0
25
Beal Vale School - Fencing - Essential
Condition (Mar´14)
10
0
10
Clarksfield School - complete rewire Essential Condition (Mar´14)
100
0
100
Friezland Jnr/Inf School - External works;
heat emitters; doors & frames.
150
0
150
Hodge Clough Inf School - Replacement
Boiler Plant & Distribution.
63
0
63
Hodge Clough (infants) School - roofing Essential Condition (Mar´14)
12
0
12
Knowsley Jnr School - Replacement
heating distribution and main.
83
0
83
Mayfield Jnr/Inf School - External
drainage; renewal of fixed furniture and
joinery in classrooms.
114
0
114
Royton & Crompton Sec School (OCL) Full Astro – pitch replacement.
170
0
170
South Failsworth Jnr/Inf/Nur School External works; heat emitters; drainage
from roof.
34
0
34
Springhead Primary School - External
works
45
0
45
Thornham St James C.E. School - Gas
distribution & mains replacement.
279
0
279
Kingfisher School - Swimming Pool
270
0
270
April 2016
Suitability/General Provision
262
0
262
Whitegate End Jnr/Inf - External and
Internal works (inc replacement of heat
emitters)
198
0
198
Other Schemes Carried Forward
109
0
109
BSF
General Provision
130
0
130
Devolved Capital
Devolved Capital General Provision
1,195
0
Basic Need
General Provision
0
14,131
14,131
Greenfield Primary
4,556
1,367
5,922
Northmoor Academy
3,237
0
3,237
Oasis Limeside/Oasis Academy
502
0
502
2 YO funding
2 YO funding
216
0
216
Schools New Build
Saddleworth School
1,054
0
1,054
12,814
15,498
27,117
Total
5.
REVENUE FUNDING IMPLICATIONS
5.1
Where a free school is a Special School the top up funding (i.e. the amount
above the per-place rate of £10,000) is funded from the commissioning Local
Authority’s DSG. The current Oldham top up rate ranges from £2,800 per
place to £35,000 dependant upon the severity and complexity of the young
person’s special educational needs. The place funding for Special Free
schools is funded for 2 years by the EFA before the funding is transferred to
the Local Authority. If the Special School is still growing the LA funds the
additional places from its DSG even though funding for these places will
never be received in the DSG. There is currently no growth in the high needs
block of the DSG so the LA will be required to fund the £10,000 per place for
any growing Special School whether it is an academy or not.
5.2
If the Council builds a new school it will open as an Academy. In this case
the Council will have to fund start-up costs for the new school from the DSG.
The start-up costs will consist of:


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resources needed for the new school to open and function from its first
day
Pre opening costs for staffing, recruitment etc
April 2016
5.3
Where there is a significant growth in pupil numbers as a result of the local
authority’s duty under section 13(1) of the 1996 Act to secure sufficient
primary and secondary education places are available to meet the needs of
the population of their area, the Local Authority can retain a growth fund from
the DSG. Oldham’s criteria reflect actual pupil number increases above
capacity of the school and schools are funded on pupil numbers above
capacity multiplied by the Basic Amount per Pupil. The LA will not receive
any additional funding in the DSG for the actual pupils in the financial year as
the DSG settlement will have been based on the October census and will not
be re-determined in that financial year. This will be the same for new pupils
entering reception each September and will be replicated for the next 4 or 6
years, therefore funding for these new pupils will have to be met from
Oldham’s existing DSG. The cost each year for 10 new primary aged pupils
for September – March would be £17,591 + additional allocations for
deprivation & SEN (if applicable).
6.
DECISION MAKING AND GOVERNANCE
6.1
Education provision in Oldham is kept under review by the Education
Provision Group. Terms of Reference for the EPG are set out at Annex
3. The main function of the group is to make recommendations on the
annual schedule of proposed capital investments consequent to
completion of the needs analysis using the agreed forecasting
methodology and by application of the matrix to determine demand and
supply priorities.
6.2
Officers will establish and update an annual schedule of priority for
Capital schemes based on:
 Availability of suitable land and buildings
 Matrix of school demand vs. places provided
 Priority maintenance schedule
 Pupil locations and anticipated locations (normally illustrated on
dot maps but additional methods of presentation are considered)
 Pupil number predictions
 Availability of readily developed schemes.
6.3
A prioritised schedule of education capital investment projects will be
prepared and updated by officers on an annual basis looking at predicted
spend over the immediate programme, the three future years that basic
need funding is visible and into the medium term (3-7 years).
6.4
The annual schedule of proposed capital investments will be initially
proposed to, and agreed by, the EPG before being presented to the
Capital Investment Programme Board for discussion, and where
appropriate, incorporation into the Council Capital Strategy and
Programme via presentation to Cabinet and Council.
To permit the Council to maintain an annual schedule of proposals a
number of schemes will be developed to be “shelf edge ready” so that
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April 2016
proposals can be advanced for either Council or grant funding
opportunities.
6.5
To enable officers to maximize opportunities available to create and fund
new projects to satisfy demand a number of enabling factors will be
required to be agreed:
 Establish an annual revenue budget to support development of
scheme proposals ahead of allocation to capital programme
 Development of specific school building condition reporting within
the Concerto asset management system
 Development of specific schools standards and admissions data
reporting tools within the Corvu business intelligence
management system.
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April 2016
Elected
members
Technical advisory group
making recommendations
to CIPB and elected
members
Education
Provision
Group
Economic
development
division
Potential school property
requirements to be held
under regular
consideration
Corporate
property
section
Capital
Investment
Programme
Board
Pupil
forecasting
group
Education
and Early
Years
division
Planning and
infrastructure
section
GOVERNANCE AND ACCOUNTABILITY FOR SCHOOL ORGANISATION IN OLDHAM
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Pupil forecast re-freshed
following termly school
census data reporting
7.
Variables over the lifetime of the Strategy
7.1
Oldham LA has developed a robust method for forecasting future pupil
population. Our current priorities for use of Basic Need allocations and
Targeted Basic Need projects are based on the local forecast. Any future GM
forecast could potentially impact on the programme subject to a review of
priorities across GM. Priorities must therefore remain under review.
7.2
Inward migration has been increasing for some time, creating additional
demand particularly in the primary sector which will move through to the
secondary sector in 2017/18 and beyond. Recent investigations have
revealed that the increase is unlikely to reduce and may continue to rise. This
will be reflected in the annual pupil place forecast completed in July each
year. As the Education Funding Agency allocates basic need funding based
on this data it is vital that we keep abreast of local and regional changes and
adjust our forecasts accordingly.
7.3
Indications are that there will be an increase in the number of large family
houses as part of new development, attracting families with multiple siblings
requiring several places in different year groups in the same school. In order
to meet this type of demand it is necessary to carry a reasonable level of
surplus capacity in order to avoid siblings being split. The current level of
surplus would not meet this level of demand, but the planned surplus of 5 –
8% would make it more likely. However, if demand continues to increase,
outstripping planned expansion of the school estate, the planned surplus may
decrease resulting in continued pressure.
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GLOSSARY
Academy
Academy schools are state-funded schools in England which are directly funded by
the Department for Education and independent of local authority control.
Basic needs funding
On an annual basis the DfE / EFA notify local authorities of the monies they will
receive for the next 3 years to provide for anticipated increases in pupil place
requirements. This funding whilst being awarded in relation to pupil place provision
this funding is not specifically ring fenced to the provision of places.
Capital funding
The cost of providing buildings and major elements of expenditure e.g. fixed play
equipment, replacement boilers, and major repairs to buildings.
Concerto
A software system used to manage and monitor assets.
Corvu
A software system used to manage and report on projects.
Department for education
The Department for Education is responsible for education and children’s services in
England. It works to achieve a highly educated society in which opportunity is equal
for children and young people, no matter what their background or family
circumstances.
Early Years education
The full range of provision, activities and experiences aimed at children prior to their
entry into primary school, encompassing education and wider child development,
as well as childcare.
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April 2016
Education Funding Agency
The EFA is an Executive Agency of the Department for Education (DfE), responsible
for the operation of the education capital and revenue funding system and the
delivery of capital programmes.
Free school
A Free School in England is a type of Academy, a non-profit-making, independent,
State-funded school which is free to attend but which is not controlled by a Local
Authority.
Oldham Education and Skills Commission
The OESC was established in 2014 to help raise local standards and aspirations so
that every child can achieve their full potential. Reporting in January 2015, it was an
independent body, tasked with identifying areas of best practice and
underachievement, investigating the challenges faced and developing a path to
future success.
Post 16 education
Education or training provided in a school or further education (FE) colleges, not
limited to academic study and providing high-quality technical and professional
education and training for young people.
Primary phase
Statutory education provision for children aged 4 to 11 years
Regional Schools Commissioner
RSCs are responsible for approving new academies and intervening in
underperforming academies and free schools in their area. They act on behalf of the
Secretary of State for Education. The RSCs are accountable to the Schools
Commissioner and are supported by a board of 6 to 8 experienced academy
headteachers and other sector leaders.
Revenue funding
The cost of running schools in day to day expenses.
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April 2016
School Capacity survey
Annual data return to the Department for Education setting out LA pupil forecasts,
capital projects and proposed capital allocations
School census
The school census is a statutory census that takes place during the autumn, spring,
and summer terms. La, maintained schools and academies must complete statutory
censuses by law unless there’s a good reason not to.
Secondary phase
Statutory education provision for children aged 11 to 16 years
Published admission number
The number of pupils that a school plans to admit in each relevant age group.
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APPENDIX A: SCHOOLS IN OLDHAM
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APPENDIX B: SCAP DATA 2015 (including commentary)
Forecasts return
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
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3530001
Chadderton Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
585
599
598
603
600
602
595
609
608
613
613
612
606
619
619
573
622
621
614
628
545
573
622
621
614
563
552
580
629
628
547
571
560
588
637
3530002
East Oldham Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
670
685
686
683
691
701
688
702
703
701
700
717
704
719
720
600
626
641
630
643
578
615
641
656
644
556
589
626
651
667
562
566
598
635
660
3530003
Failsworth & Holinwood Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
498
503
504
506
507
491
515
520
522
524
496
499
523
529
530
516
504
507
532
537
482
533
521
524
549
513
493
544
532
535
504
529
508
560
548
3530004
Lees & Saddleworth Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
450
454
456
466
459
444
459
463
466
476
456
451
466
470
473
461
464
458
474
478
448
465
468
463
478
427
454
472
475
469
426
433
460
478
481
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
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3530005
Royton & Shaw Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
556
563
568
563
559
558
563
570
575
571
546
566
571
578
583
548
551
571
576
583
531
556
559
579
584
531
539
564
567
587
513
538
546
570
574
3530006
West Oldham Primary
Primary
Reception
1
2
3
4
5
6
641
657
653
649
651
700
685
701
697
692
717
745
730
747
743
800
851
883
865
885
780
840
892
925
907
786
814
875
928
962
779
826
855
918
972
3530007
Oldham Secondary
Secondary
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
3222
3418
3551
3616
3840
3960
4022
3017
3278
3474
3607
3672
3892
4012
2988
3087
3350
3546
3680
3741
3961
2985
3053
3152
3415
3613
3742
3803
2939
3033
3100
3199
3462
3654
3783
445
450
464
475
490
530
560
453
442
447
461
471
486
526
April 2016
Schools Capacity Survey 2015
Local Authority Commentary
Local Authority Name
Local Authority Number
Contact Names
Tel.
Oldham LA
353
Paula Green/Gill Hoar
0161 770 3158/3150
1. General LA overview indicating LA wide trends (Primary and Secondary age)
The general population in the borough has increased in the last 5 years. For schools it means the
number of children needing a school place at the start of the academic year is also increasing. In
Year transfers have also increased year on year since 2011. This is largely due to the number of
children and young people moving in to the borough from abroad. In the main the above families
are moving in to council owned and private rented housing in two of the six planning areas; East
Oldham and West Oldham.
Total mainstream pupils aged 4 – 11 at January Census 2014 was 22, 793. At January Census 2015
this number has risen to 23, 181. An increase of 2% in 12 months. Total capacity in the primary
sector is 23, 720 places. There are currently 305 empty places. The majority of these places are in
year 5 and year 6 classes. There are no empty places in year 1 and year 2, throughout the borough.
Total pupils aged 11 - 16 at January Census 2014 was 14, 560. At January Census 2015 this number
has increased to 14, 589. A very slight increase over the 12 month period. Total capacity in the
secondary sector is 15, 809 places. There are currently 1066 empty places. It is expected that the
primary bulge will roll through to the secondary sector in 2017/18.
There has been minimal variance in the Secondary allocation over the last 5 years;
September
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of pupils offered on National Offer day
2927
3004
2966
2965
2954
There are currently 100 Y7 vacancies for September 2015. These vacancies are at the 3 fresh start
academies; Oldham Academy North, Oasis Academy and Waterhead Academy.
Allocation to the Reception cohort in the same years is below;
September
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
No. of pupils offered on National Offer day
3210
3330
3361
3322
3246
There are currently 126 reception vacancies for September 2015. These vacancies are across all
Page 28 of 68
April 2016
planning areas, with the exception of East Oldham and Saddleworth/Lees (these 2 planning areas
have no empty places).
2. Factors affecting overall LA pupil numbers e.g. migration, housing development, live births.
For cross boundary movement please identify the other local authorities involved and the
scales of places affected
The number of Fair Access applications has increased year on year since 2010/11. The largest
volumes of Fair Access pupils include new arrivals in Key Stage 1 and Key Stage 4 with no command
of the English language and those that have been out of education for more than two months.
Primary;
Number of FA applications;
Secondary;
Number of FA applications;
2010/11
71
2010/11
96
2011/12
174
2011/12
120
2012/13
270
2012/13
184
2013/14
412
2013/14
183
2014/15
553
2014/15
214
Primary FA numbers have increased by 34% year on year and Secondary FA numbers have increased
by 17% year on year.
As of 2010/11 all requests for in year transfers have been coordinated by the LA. Below shows
primary and secondary transfers processed from this date (where the pupil has gone on to the roll
of an Oldham school mid-year).
Primary;
Number of transfers;
Secondary;
Number of transfers;
2010/11
574
2010/11
193
2011/12
764
2011/12
305
2012/13
988
2012/13
520
2013/14
1259
2013/14
449
2014/15
1517
2014/15
476
Secondary in year transfers have remained stable over the last two years, however primary in year
transfers have increased year on year by 20%.
Cross border movement;
Oldham LA is historically a net importer of pupils and this trend continues. Secondary allocation
2015; 130 Oldham residents were offered out of borough schools and 258 out of borough pupils
were offered Oldham schools - +128. Primary allocation; 43 Oldham residents were offered out of
borough schools and 101 out of borough pupils were offered Oldham schools - +58.
Housing Development;
Page 29 of 68
April 2016
The Council has increased the disposal of Council owned land in order to accelerate the
development of new family housing in the Borough. The strategic aim is to increase the number of
higher quality new homes for sale in order to widen choice. This strategy is demonstrating success
with over 300 new homes due to start on site within the next 12 months. This approach supports
the wider Greater Manchester aim of increasing the number of new homes across GM by 10,000
per annum. In order to deliver this magnitude of growth, a £300 million Housing Investment Fund
has been established with Treasury funding with an initial £40 million draw down in 2015/16. The
initial ‘call for projects’ ahead of formal Fund launch has resulted in a scheme for Oldham being
proposed which is currently not on our pipeline list. This demonstrates that the existence of the
Fund will drive accelerated residential growth across GM and in Oldham. Going forward, the
Council is identifying further sites for residential growth – both in Council and private ownership.
3.
Summary of PRIMARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure on
places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address .
Total number of planning areas across the Local Authority. 7
Planning area name / ID
Overview (NB the cells will expand)
a. Chadderton
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 14
of which are in the Chadderton collaborative.
There is pressure on places in Chadderton; Although there are current
reception places, there are no current places in year 1 – year 6 in the
collaborative. Schools in Chadderton have to go above their planned
admission number for families moving in to the area in year 1 – year
6.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
The expansion of 3 Chadderton Schools; Yew Tree C P, PAN increase
from 60 to 90 and Bare Trees C P, PAN increase from 70- 90 from
September 2013 & Mills Hill C P, PAN increase from 60 – 90 from
September 2014.
b. East Oldham
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015.
None of which are in the East Oldham collaborative.
There is pressure on school places in East Oldham. There is only one
school with KS1 vacancies in this collaborative. There are enough
places in KS2. Schools in East Oldham have to go above their planned
admission number for families moving in to the area in KS1.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
The expansion of an East Oldham School – Watersheddings C P, PAN
increase from 30 to 45 from September 2014.
Page 30 of 68
April 2016
c. West Oldham
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 44
of which are in the West Oldham collaborative.
There is pressure on school places in all of West Oldham. There are no
current places in Reception to year 4 in West Oldham. There are some
places in year 5 and year 6. Schools in West Oldham have to go above
their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in
reception – year 4.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
There is a new 3 form entry primary school to be built in West
Oldham. This build has recently been agreed by Oldham LA Cabinet
and work will commence imminently with the school opening in
September 2016.
The expansion of a West Oldham School - St Hilda’s C E, PAN increase
from 45 to 60 from September 2014.
d. Royton/Shaw
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 50
of which are in the Royton and Shaw collaborative.
There is pressure on school places in Royton/Shaw. There are no
places in year 1 and year 2. Other year groups do have some spaces.
Schools in Royton/Shaw have to go above their planned admission
number for families moving in to the area in year 1 and year 2.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
The expansion of a School in Shaw – East Crompton St George’s C E,
PAN increase from 30 to 60 from September 2014.
e. Failsworth/Hollinwood
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015. 18
of which are in the Failsworth/Hollinwood collaborative.
There are current spaces in reception, year 3 and year 5. There are no
places in year 1, year 2, year 4 or year 6. Schools have to go above
their planned admission number for families moving in to the area in
these year groups.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
The expansion of a School in Failsworth – Propps Hall C P, PAN
increase from 20 to 30 from September 2014.
The expansion of a school in Hollinwood – Oasis Limeside Academy,
Page 31 of 68
April 2016
PAN increase from 30 to 60 from September 2015.
f. Saddleworth/Lees
There are 126 vacancies for reception cohort in September 2015.
None of which are in the Saddleworth and Lees collaborative.
There are currently no places in year 1 – year 3. There are some
places in the other year groups. Schools have to go above their
planned admission number for families moving in to the area in year 1
– year 3.
Funding has been agreed to expand a School in Saddleworth for
September 2016/2017. Feasibility tests currently underway.
Discussions are ongoing with Greenfield C P. They have admitted 10
above PAN for reception 2013, 2014 and reception 2015, however
this is not an agreed proposal as yet. It is planned that their PAN will
increase from 30 to 60 in September 2017.
4.
Summary of SECONDARY AGE pupil places in individual planning areas experiencing pressure
on places either currently or projected and for which action is required to address.
Planning area name / ID
a. All Oldham
Overview (NB the cells will expand)
In KS3 there is capacity at Collective Spirit Free School, Failsworth,
Newman R C, The Radclyffe and the 3 fresh start academies; Oasis,
The Oldham Academy North and Waterhead.
In KS4 there are vacancies in most schools throughout the borough.
There will be a forecast shortage of places in the Secondary sector by
2017. An increase of 1FE was planned for Saddleworth School within
the Oldham BSF programme. Following the termination of the
programme a successful application was made under the PSBP, which
will enable Oldham to address the forecast shortfall of place in the
Saddleworth area.
The basic needs funding allocation for 2017/2018 is ring fenced for a
new build secondary school to address the predicted place shortfall in
this sector. This will be situated in East or West Oldham.
Actions (current and planned) to address shortage/excess of places. Include
the number of places to be added or removed in each school and by what
date.
The expansion of Blue Coat School from September 2014 – PAN
increase from 212 to 240.
PAN increase at Crompton House School from September 2015 – PAN
increase from 195 to 223.
PAN increase at Collective Spirit from September 2015 – PAN increase
Page 32 of 68
April 2016
from 80 to 90.
The expansion of Saddleworth School from September 2017 – PAN
increase from 270 to 300.
Page 33 of 68
April 2016
APPENDIX C: PUPIL FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
Pupil Projections
Oldham Council
Morgan Marshall
Business Intelligence Officer
July 2015
Page 34 of 68
1 Overview
The purpose of the report is to provide a briefing on the processes, base data, and methodology
used to help in the development and calculation of projected pupil numbers for Oldham. As well as
giving an indication of where there will be pressure on school places in the future.
The purpose of forecasting pupil numbers is to satisfy statutory obligations to meet Basic Need
(demand for additional school places) and to assess the extent to which a surplus or deficit of
places is likely to occur in the future. The DfE requires 5 year forecasts for primary and 7 year
forecast for secondary. The DfE only provides ‘guidance’ on the creation of a pupil forecasting
model. As a result the forecasting methodologies, data inputs, choice of base geography, and
assumptions, vary between local authorities. Although there are differences Oldham’s approach is
similar to other local authorities.
The Oldham pupil forecasting model is based on a cohort survival principle, i.e. the Percentage of
each year group that "survives" to the next year. This uses a weighted average of cohort survival
going back through time, with most recent figures having a higher weighting.
The model captures demographic change and retention, cross boundary movement, and inward
migration. The 2015 update to the model has used new sources of data in places where it may be
necessary to account for additional expected changes in school population, but all forecasts have a
consistent basis with previous overall methodology.
2 Context
School rolls have been rising and continue to rise across Oldham, and this is putting pressure on
the provision of school places across the Borough. This pressure is now being felt and demand for
primary school places have grown considerably, by 11%, in the last 5 years. In year transfers to
primary schools have increased since 2010 an average 20% year on year, and primary school Fair
Access applications have similarly increased an average 17% year on year, putting increased
pressure on planning school places.
Nationally the pattern of demand for pupil places in England has been changing. In July 2014, the
Department for Education (DfE) released its latest set of national pupil projections. Since July 2012
there has been the first increase in national primary pupil numbers since the 1990s. Between 2014
and 2023, pupil numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to
increase by 9%. Increases in primary pupil numbers are projected to continue rising to levels not
seen since the 1970s. The numbers of secondary pupil by 2023 is projected to be 17% higher
compared to 2014, after an initial decline until 2015, after which the increase in primary pupil
numbers will start to flow through to secondary schools.
The total pupils on roll across primary and secondary schools were 37,774 at the January School
Census 2015. This was an increase of 2.2% from the previous 12 months. Similarly the largest
increase (3.4%) in pupil numbers over the last 5 years occurred between 2014 and 2015 in the
primary sector. The number of secondary pupils, which had historically been in decline, showed
the first increase in numbers in the last 12 months, which is similar to the national projections.
Page 35 of 68
April 2016
Change in the Numbers of Pupils on Roll Year on Year in the January School Census
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Primary
21,077
21,448
21,848
22,427
23,181
YoY
0.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.7%
3.4%
5 yr
Increase
Secondary
10.7%
14,929
14,801
14,682
14,540
14,593
YoY
-0.7%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-1.0%
0.4%
5 yr
Increase
-2.9%
Total
36,006
36,249
36,530
36,967
37,774
YoY
0.1%
0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
2.2%
5 yr
Increase
5.0%
3 Previous Projection Accuracy
A review of the accuracy of previous projections was undertaken to inform the production of the
new series of projections. By doing this, inconsistencies or problems with the previous projections
can be identified and corrected before the new projections are produced.
The table below shows the 2014-15 pupil numbers that were projected in previous years, up to five
years ago. These projections were made in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The percentage
differences between the projections and the actual January 2015 rolls are relatively small over the
five years, the projections were fairly accurate. However, the model from further ago is more
inaccurate, as expected, and under projected primary pupils and over predicted secondary pupils.
Accuracy of the Model from Previous Years
Accuracy Predicting 2014-15 Actual
Primary
Secondary Pri/Sec
2014 Estimate
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
2013 Estimate
0.4%
-0.6%
0.0%
2012 Estimate
-3.1%
2.4%
-0.9%
2011 Estimate
-4.3%
2.7%
-1.5%
2010 Estimate
-4.9%
4.3%
-1.2%
The table below shows how accurately each model predicted one year ahead. The table below
shows the model from 2014 predicted most accurately for both primary and secondary, with 0.1%
error, and was very accurate indeed. Additionally the graph shows the prediction for pupil numbers
across each year group was also very good, although, the model marginally under-predicted
primary in Reception, Year: 1, 2 4 and 5 (between 0.1% and 0.5%) and secondary pupils in years
8, 9 and 10 in the range of 0.4% to 1.2%. The last two years of secondary are harder to predict; the
model under-predicted Year 12 and 13 by 0.7% and 5.4% respectively
Page 36 of 68
April 2016
Accuracy of the Model Year on Year
Primary
23,181
23,149
-0.1%
22,704
22,747
0.2%
22,124
22,085
-0.2%
21,716
21,657
-0.3%
21,329
21,416
0.4%
Actual 2014-15
Forecast from 2014
% difference
Actual 2013-14
Forecast from 2013
% difference
Actual 2012-13
Forecast from 2012
% difference
Actual 2011-12
Forecast from 2011
% difference
Actual 2010-11
Forecast from 2010
% difference
Secondary
15,511
15,497
-0.1%
15,448
15,392
-0.4%
15,608
15,994
2.5%
15,699
16,145
2.8%
15,938
16,357
2.6%
Pri/Sec
38,692
38,646
-0.1%
38,152
38,139
0.0%
37,732
38,079
0.9%
37,415
37,802
1.0%
37,267
37,773
1.4%
2014 Forecast for 2014-15 compared to 2014-15 Actual (Jan 2015 PLASC), by Year Groups
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,200
3,100
3,000
Actual 2014-15
2,900
2014
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
R
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
How well the model predicted primary pupil numbers in the planning areas was also evaluated.
The two graphs below illustrate this. The 2014 model under predicted the numbers by a very small
margin, and over predicted Saddleworth and Lees by 1%. The model from 2013 shows a greater
degree of inaccuracy predicting further forward by area, with a large over-prediction of 6.8% in
Chadderton.
The smaller the area covered by the projection, the more difficult it is to make an accurate
projection. Primary planning area projections are much more difficult to produce accurately, than a
projection for the Borough as a whole. The smaller the area more significant variations between
forecast numbers and actual numbers may be. Accurate projection of pupil numbers can be made
Page 37 of 68
April 2016
more difficult by one-off events, which result in a lot of pupil movement between schools, such as a
new housing development or the merging of schools.
2014 forecast for 2014/15 compared with 2014/15 actual, by Primary Planning Area
West Oldham
Primary, 0.2%
Royton & Shaw
Primary, -0.5%
Lees & Saddleworth
Primary, 1.0%
Failsworth &
Holinwood Primary, 0.4%
East Oldham
Primary, -0.9%
Chadderton Primary,
-0.1%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2013 forecast for 2014/15 compared with 2014/15 actual, by Primary Planning Area
West Oldham
Primary, -0.8%
Royton & Shaw
Primary, 0.0%
Lees & Saddleworth
Primary, 0.3%
Failsworth &
Holinwood Primary,
0.1%
East Oldham
Primary, -3.3%
Chadderton Primary,
6.8%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Producing pupil number projections is not an exact science. Projections will never be 100%
accurate but they obviously need to be reasonably reliable; as much good practice as possible has
been incorporated into the projection process, within the time and resource constraints.
Assumptions have been made using the evidence and information available at the time of making
the projections.
Page 38 of 68
April 2016
4 Forecasting Methodology
The model used has been based on progression ratios; ratios of the number of pupils in the year
group as proportion of the year below in the year before, capturing whether the cohort has
increased or decreased in number as it has progressed to the next year. A ratio greater than 100%
indicates an increase in number and less than 100% a decrease. The numbers for each school
year are from the January 2015 school census. For each year before school age an interpolated
figure is derived using reception numbers and live births.
Diagram of Cohort Progression in the Model
Age0
Ages 1, 2, and 3
Age1
Age 0 - NHS Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social
Care Information Centre)
Live birth data is input into the model by ward grouped up to
the school planning areas
Age2
The birth data by ward for 2014/15 is estimated from a 4
year average of previous years
Age3
R
The actual pupils on roll
transitions through to
the next year. Each
cohort has a progression
ratio which represents
the increase or decrease
as it passes into the next
year group.
The progression ratio for
each transition is
calculated from the last 6
years transitions, this
calculation is weighted to
make the more recent
years count more than
the earlier years.
Next year's forecast is
based on multiplying
each cohort by the
progression ratio for the
transition
Page 39 of 68
Age 1, Age 2, and Age 3 are interpolated between birth data
and Reception School Census NOR
Primary
Year Groups
Age3
R
1
2
3
4
5
6
R
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Secondary
Year Groups
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
April 2016
Pupil number forecasts are based on the following factors:










NHS Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social Care Information Centre)
The number of children in each academic age group (September to August)
Primary pupil projections by Planning Area - geographical data of the primary pupils
attending the schools located in each of the 6 Planning Areas in Oldham (NOR January
School Census 2015)
Secondary Projection Oldham level – NOR January School Census 2015
Children’s movement (progression) from age-group to age-group
Pupil Housing Yields
New arrivals from overseas – admissions data
Net cross boundary movement – DfE and School Census data
Previous model accuracy checks
Stakeholder consultation
From the individual year on year progression ratios a weighted progression ratio is derived –
averaging, with weighting, to most recent data. Weightings are 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and 1. A constant
number of previous years and weighting ratios are used to allow year on year comparison of the
model and, over time, allow judgements to be made on the stability of the model. The model is built
from data going back to 2004-5.
Diagram Illustrating an Overview of the Model
Births
NHS Local birth data HSCIC (Health and Social
Care Information Centre)
Age 1, 2, and 3
interpolated
School Census
January NOR
Progression ratios
from 7 year trend
weighted
Pupil yields
from housing
developments
New arrivals
from overseas
Net cross
boundary
movements
Factors added to make
adjustments to account for
recent rising pupil numbers and
previous under projection
Existing inputs in
original model
New Pupil Projections
2015-16 to 2024-25
Primary by planning area
Secondary – Oldham Borough level
Page 40 of 68
Additional inputs
to new model
April 2016
Births – Forecasting Reception Age Pupils
Forecasting reception age pupils is the most difficult because you cannot base your calculation on
the numbers of pupils in the previous years. The model uses birth data to identify children aged 0
and the data is interpolated with known reception age children from the previous census, to identify
children aged 1, aged 2 and aged 3.The previous pattern identifies a progression ratio to input to
the model and this gives the number of pupils who will enter school in the next 5 years.
Live birth data is input into the model by ward grouped up to the school planning areas. The live
birth data has been provided from two sources:

Local live birth data - HSCIC (Health and Social Care Information Centre) – data
recently became available to share with the council quarterly – latest release Q3 2014

National ONS Live births – validated annual data available many months later – latest
2013
Data for births had not been available for the year immediately before the first year being
projected. Therefore an estimate based on a 3 year average was previously made. Additionally an
assumed reapportionment of births by each ward was made with a lack of data at ward level.
This year several changes to the methodology have been made. A revision of the birth data since
2009-10 up to 2013-14 has been included. Historically the model has used both birth data in some
years and ONS Mid-Year Population projections in others. When Mid-Year estimates were used
more inaccuracy was evident in the models predictions. The revision has also allowed births in
each ward to be identified historically, which should improve the accuracy levels at the district
planning area.
The live birth data was previously proportioned into an academic year from 1st September to 31st
August. An assumption was made that there was an even proportion of births across each month.
With new data by quarter we are able to calculate the academic year more precisely.
Assumed academic year has been calculated as follows from annual quarterly data:E.g. 2010-11 academic year, 1 September to 31st August
1/3 Q3 Year 2010 + Q4 Year 2010 + Q1 Year 2011 + Q2 Year 2011 + 2/3 Q3 Year 2011
The birth data by ward for 2014/15 is estimated from a 4 year average of previous years. This was
found to be the most accurate predictor of estimating the current births. Additionally birth data from
ONS (the graph below) show births have been fairly stable since 2008. Live births reached a peak
of 3,361 in 2006. Live birth rates have been relatively steady over the last few years, and in the last
3 years rates have remained around 3,300.
Oldham Live Births 1992-2013
3400
Live Births
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
Year
Page 41 of 68
April 2016
Travel to School – Cross Boundary Movement
Oldham is a net importer of pupils from surrounding Local authorities across all year groups. Cross
boundary movement has been incorporated into the model by assuming the proportion of net gain
is applied as the table below at key age groups reception and Year 7 as prime transfer stages, as
suggested in DfE guidance.
Analysis of pupil residency outside the Oldham boundary and the distribution of school attendance
across each planning area have been incorporated into the model for primary pupils. The factor
has been used to weight net imports of pupils by planning area at the reception key age group.
Incorporating this into the model should reflect some schools in some areas that are likely to be
more prominent importers, e.g. those nearest the LA border especially the case of primary schools.
Proprtion of Net Gain from Cross-Boundary Movement
% of pupils residing in
other LAs attending
schools maintained by
Oldham
% of pupils residing in
Oldham attending
schools maintained by
other LAs
Net difference between
imports and exports as
a % of school
population
Year Group
6
7
R
1
2
3
4
5
8
9
10
11
Total
3.3
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.8
3.4
3.3
8.7
9.4
10.3
10.4
13.0
6.1
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.3
1.7
6.4
6.7
7.2
7.1
8.1
3.9
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.1
1.6
2.4
3.0
3.3
3.5
5.4
2.3
Cross Boundary Flows – Primary Schools
Cross border net flows into Oldham -Primary Schools
Bury
Lancashire
Manchester
Rochdale
Salford
Stockport
Tameside
Kirklees
Unknown
Total
Page 42 of 68
8
4
41
264
3
3
9
19
86
437
April 2016
Cross Boundary Flows – Secondary Schools
Cross border net flows into Oldham -Secondary Schools
Bury
Lancashire
Manchester
Rochdale
Tameside
Calderdale
Derbyshire
Unknown
Total
6
7
413
300
-256
4
45
24
543
Source: DfE Cross Boundary Matrix Tables School Census Jan 2014
Primary School Pupils from Outside of Oldham by School Planning Area
School Planning Area
CH
FH
WO
RS
SL
EO
Total
Oldham
Pupil Residence
Out of Area
Total
3769
137
3906
3193
194
3387
4988
18
5006
3445
215
3660
2858
161
3019
3950
14
3964
22203
739
22942
The Table above shows that East Oldham and West Oldham areas have much fewer pupils
from outside the Oldham boundary. This is reflected in the model, cross boundary adjustments
are factored for each school planning area at primary stage.
The impact to the model is to add 47 children in total to reception every year (distributed by
area weighting) and 77 children in year 7. This is boosting the school population throughout
the model through progression of these years through school.
Migration – New Arrivals
ONS sub-national population projections forecast for 2012 (published May 2014) international
in-migration to Oldham at 1,000 people per year up to 2037, but it also has international outmigration at 1,000 per year in most years. The net is no growth from international migration.
More detailed tables reveal a net gain of around 574 people per year, when rounding to the
nearest 1,000 is removed.
Given recent increases in new arrivals from overseas and pressure points with school capacity
new arrivals have been incorporated into the model. This has been done by assuming the latest
numbers would be repeated again every year. An estimated proportion has been applied across
year groups since it would be difficult to predict which year groups would be the point of entry
for different cohorts.
Page 43 of 68
April 2016
The table below shows the new arrivals that have been placed on roll at an Oldham school in each
academic year. The 2014/15 academic year has been adjusted to account for the months not
included in the academic year so far (the data captures up until May 2015). The remainder of the
year is estimated by the numbers and location of new migrants from the months May to August
from the previous year 2013/14. This is considered a more reflective estimate of a migration
pattern over the course of the year. There are a high number of migrants over the summer and
most of these arrivals are placed on roll in September, and the numbers placed on roll tail off
towards the end of the school term.
The figures in the table below are distributed in each area across the age groups from Age 3 to
Year 13, and applied to the cohorts from reception to year 11. The impact on the model is to add
between 34 and 36 pupils per age group to secondary every year. At primary level the following
number of pupils are added to each year group every year: Chadderton 2 to 3, East Oldham 7,
Failsworth/Hollinwood 5 to 6, Royton and Shaw 3 to 4, Saddleworth/Lees 2 to 3, and West Oldham
14 to 15.
New Arrivals by Planning Area
Area
CH
EO
FH
RS
SL
WO
Total
New Arrivals
35
92
74
44
29
186
460
* Adjusted figure by adding the previous cohort numbers from May to Aug 2013/14 to estimate a complete year
Pupil Yields - Housing Developments
Housing developments can have a substantial demand on places at individual schools and
even across the Local Authority. New housing developments and the expected impact
these developments will have on pupil numbers have been included in the model.
The model takes into account future housing growth. Future new housing developments
have been identified from the housing land supply, including council owned regeneration
sites and affordable housing developments. The numbers of units, housing size and mix,
location and completion timescale have all been taken into account.
A development programme has been calculated with delivery of houses in the next 5 years
and 6 to ten years that have met the ‘principles of development’ – to include sites with
planning permission, outline planning permission, S106, sites under construction or that
can be justified that the development will proceed. Developments that are justified to
proceed include Council owned sites that will come forward with partner developers as they
are under the council’s control and influence to some degree.
Page 44 of 68
April 2016
Additional pupils from all future development
Next 5 years
6 to 10 years
Total
Houses with more than 1 bedroom Extra Primary Pupils Extra Secondary Pupils Total Pupils
2,887
691
489
1,180
2,191
524
371
896
5,078
1,215
861
2,076
Pupil yield factors have been calculated that are based on the number of children per dwelling,
which are used to calculate the additional number of pupils generated by new housing. The ratios
have been calculated from analysis of census data. Populations in different age groups in different
size properties were compared to the total number of properties of each of the different sizes to
give an average number of primary aged children and secondary aged children in each property
size.
The sensitivities of the pupil yield per bedroom were tested and the resulting yields were found to
generate pupil number too high, and an overall yield per dwelling was found to be more valid and
comparable with other local authorities. Additionally 1 bedroom flats were removed as they were
assumed to have a negligible impact on pupil yields.
The pupil yields used are:
Primary pupil yield 0.24 per dwelling – 7 x 0.034 per year group per dwelling
Secondary pupil yield 0.17 per dwelling – 5 x 0.034 per year group per dwelling
These pupil yields have been compared to our statistical neighbours and to local
authorities with pupil yield research, and these yields are considered to be validated in line
with others. For example:
Rotherham
Primary pupil yield 0.21 per dwelling – 7 x 0.03 per year group per dwelling
Secondary pupil yield 0.15 – 5 x 0.03 per year group per dwelling
Salford
Primary pupil yield 0.27 per dwelling
Kirklees
Primary pupil yield 0.21 per dwelling
Secondary pupil yield 0.1 per dwelling
Additional Primary Pupils by Primary Planning Areas Generated by Housing
Developments
Planning Area
Next 5 Years
6 to 10 Years
CH
WO
EO
SL
RS
FH
Overall
87
198
175
86
36
108
691
50
106
47
129
91
101
524
The figures from the above table are added into the model over the forecasting period and
distributed over each year group.
The arrival of new families into the borough is expected to continue, driven by housing growth. The
Council has increased disposal of Council owned land in order to accelerate the development of
Page 45 of 68
April 2016
new family housing. The strategic aim is to increase the number of high quality new homes. This
supports the wider Greater Manchester aim of increasing the number of new homes across GM by
10,000 per annum. Extra funding is supporting housing growth across GM and Oldham is currently
identifying even more sites than have been accounted for in the model.
5 The Pupil Forecasts
These forecasts project pupil numbers up to 2024/25 at local authority borough level for secondary
and planning area for primary. The forecasts are primarily trend-based which means they assume
that past trends continue in the future. Pupil numbers for the school year 2014/15 are taken from
the January 2015 School Census.
Summary of Pupil Forecasts
Pupil Forecasts
Actual 2014-15
Forecast 2015-16
Forecast 2016-17
Forecast 2017-18
Forecast 2018-19
Forecast 2019-20
Forecast 2020-21
Forecast 2021-22
Forecast 2022-23
Forecast 2023-24
Forecast 2024-25
Primary
Secondary Pri/Sec
23,181
15,511
38,692
23,993
16,049
40,042
24,660
16,761
41,421
25,202
17,538
42,740
25,693
18,319
44,012
25,962
19,228
45,190
26,074
20,005
46,079
26,128
20,667
46,795
26,179
21,183
47,362
26,169
21,683
47,852
26,155
21,973
48,128
Primary Pupil Forecasts
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Page 46 of 68
3530001
Chadderton Primary
Primary
Reception
585
599
598
603
600
1
602
595
609
608
613
2
613
612
606
619
619
3530002
3
573
622
621
614
628
4
545
573
622
621
614
5
563
552
580
629
628
6
547
571
560
588
637
5
556
589
626
651
667
6
562
566
598
635
660
East Oldham Primary
Primary
Reception
670
685
686
683
691
1
701
688
702
703
701
2
700
717
704
719
720
3
600
626
641
630
643
4
578
615
641
656
644
April 2016
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
3530003
Failsworth & Holinwood Primary
Primary
Reception
498
503
504
506
507
1
491
515
520
522
524
2
496
499
523
529
530
3530004
3
516
504
507
532
537
4
482
533
521
524
549
5
513
493
544
532
535
6
504
529
508
560
548
5
427
454
472
475
469
6
426
433
460
478
481
5
531
539
564
567
587
6
513
538
546
570
574
5
786
814
875
928
962
6
779
826
855
918
972
12
445
450
464
475
490
530
560
13
453
442
447
461
471
486
526
Lees & Saddleworth Primary
Primary
Reception
450
454
456
466
459
1
444
459
463
466
476
2
456
451
466
470
473
3530005
3
461
464
458
474
478
4
448
465
468
463
478
Royton & Shaw Primary
Primary
Reception
556
563
568
563
559
1
558
563
570
575
571
2
546
566
571
578
583
3530006
3
548
551
571
576
583
4
531
556
559
579
584
West Oldham Primary
Primary
Reception
641
657
653
649
651
1
700
685
701
697
692
2
717
745
730
747
743
3
800
851
883
865
885
4
780
840
892
925
907
Secondary Pupil Forecasts
Planning Area Code
Academic year
Forecasts
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
Page 47 of 68
3530007
Oldham Secondary
Secondary
7
3222
3418
3551
3616
3840
3960
4022
8
3017
3278
3474
3607
3672
3892
4012
9
2988
3087
3350
3546
3680
3741
3961
10
2985
3053
3152
3415
3613
3742
3803
11
2939
3033
3100
3199
3462
3654
3783
April 2016
The graph below shows actual and forecast numbers for primary and secondary aged pupils. Pupil
numbers are expected to grow, which is a trend that is continuing since 2010 for primary, and
started this year for secondary. It is expected a further primary bulge will roll through to the
secondary sector in 2017/18 onwards. Consequently the rate of growth will be higher and more
sustained in the secondary sector than primary. In three years time growth in the secondary sector
will be 13% and 9% in the primary sector.
Actual and Forecast Pupil numbers in Oldham 2002 to 2024/25
60000
Forecast
Actual
50000
40000
30000
Primary
Secondary
20000
All
10000
Forecast 2024-25
Forecast 2023-24
Forecast 2022-23
Forecast 2021-22
Forecast 2020-21
Forecast 2019-20
Forecast 2018-19
Forecast 2017-18
Forecast 2016-17
2015
Forecast 2015-16
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0
All primary planning areas are projected to have a growth in primary pupil numbers; however the
model reflects increased pressure on primary school places in Oldham West with much higher
projected growth in pupil numbers. Currently there are no places in reception to year 4, and
numerous classes are above their planned admission numbers. West Oldham has seen
unprecedented demand through increasing numbers of families moving into the area. This has
been reflected in the model with projected new arrivals and the addition of pupils from new housing
developments. West Oldham has the most new developments scheduled to occur is the next 5
years, and it has received the greatest influx of in migration to the area.
Page 48 of 68
April 2016
Actual and Forecast Pupil numbers in for Primary School Planning Areas 2002 to 2024/25
6000
5500
Actual
Forecast
5000
4500
CH
4000
EO
FH
3500
RS
SL
3000
WO
2500
2000
6 Pressures on Provision of School Places
This section compares current and projected reception rolls with their Published Admission
Numbers (PANs) through to 2024/5, as well as providing a summary of surpluses and deficits. For
future PANs planned increases to PANs have been added and projected forward with the cohort.
Additionally current capacity pressure points and how this relates to future projections is explored.
The number of classes provided and that will be needed in the future is shown in full in the
appendix.
The tables in this section show the numbers on roll (NOR) between the January school census and
the May School Census have increased. This highlights the growing pupil numbers from in year
transfers and new arrivals throughout the school year creating pressure on school places.
The projections estimate that secondary schools will have a shortage of places in the school year
2017/18, i.e. the demand for school places in September 2017 will outstrip supply, if all the pupils
projected by the model actually materialise.
From 2016/17 the secondary surplus drops to 3.01% and after this into a deficit reaching -22.12%
in 2024/25. It is recommended by the DfE that there should be a surplus number of places
between 5% and 8%, to comfortably plan school places and meet needs across the Borough. In
order to reach this desired surplus secondary school provision should be increased overall from
2016/17 above planned expansions.
More detailed analysis of pupil place availability in each school by year group highlights current
pressures on places, which is unevenly shared between schools. Several schools have limited or
Page 49 of 68
April 2016
no places across the year groups and several are over-subscribed; whilst the Academies have
surplus capacity.
Further analysis of the classes needed to support the pupil forecasts (included in the Appendix)
reveal that there will be a shortage of secondary places in year 7 and year 8 from 2016-17. This
cohort will then roll forward creating an additional shortage in each progressive year group in each
additional year of the forecast.
Actual reception rolls for Secondary from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls
through to 2024/25, against PANs
Secondary Total - Year 7 to Year 11
NOR or
Projection
Academic Year
Based on
actual NOR
Based on
projections
PAN
Surplus
/ Deficit
%
Surplus /
Deficit
2014/15 - Jan PLASC
14593
15899
1306
8.21%
2014/15 - May PLASC
14636
15899
1263
7.94%
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
15151
15869
16627
17383
18267
18989
19581
20049
20519
20767
16039
16361
16571
16811
16991
16997
17005
17005
17005
17005
888
492
-56
-572
-1276
-1992
-2576
-3044
-3514
-3762
5.54%
3.01%
-0.34%
-3.40%
-7.51%
-11.72%
-15.15%
-17.90%
-20.66%
-22.12%
Current (July 2015) class capacity for Secondary by School
School
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
The Blue Coat
Collective Spirit
Crompton House
Failsworth School
Hathershaw College
Newman College
North Chadderton
OASIS Academy
Oldham Academy North
Royton & Crompton
Saddleworth School
The Radclyffe
Waterhead Academy
Total
-2
2
-6
12
-1
8
-2
78
74
1
2
4
29
199
-6
5
-6
0
-2
0
-6
51
78
0
-2
2
85
199
-4
n/a
-5
6
-2
7
2
40
80
0
-1
-1
28
150
Year 10 Year 11
-5
n/a
-7
4
-3
56
10
73
78
10
3
0
54
273
1
n/a
-6
5
1
36
6
36
95
17
-5
1
22
209
Total
-16
7
-30
27
-7
107
10
278
405
28
-3
6
218
1030
At the January school census 2015 the number of primary pupils on roll was 23,185 by the May
school census this has risen to 23,226. Total capacity in the primary sector is currently 23,720
Page 50 of 68
April 2016
places and there are currently 305 empty places. The percentage of surplus places across all
primary schools is currently below the recommended 5%. Planned PAN increases will see that the
surplus increases from 2.12% in May 214/15 to 2.21% in 2015/16 despite an increase in pupil
numbers. This is short lived as the surplus reduces dramatically in 2016/17 and will reach a deficit in
in 2017/18, when there will be an overall progressively worsening shortage of places thereafter.
Actual reception rolls for Primary from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls through
to 2024/25, against PANs
Primary Total
Academic Year
Based on
actual NOR
Based on
projections
NOR or
Projection
PAN
Surplus
/ Deficit
%
Surplus /
Deficit
2014/15 - Jan PLASC
23185
23730
545
2.30%
2014/15 - May PLASC
23226
23730
504
2.12%
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
23993
24660
25202
25693
25962
26074
26128
26179
26169
26155
24535
24740
24945
25150
25345
25490
25525
25555
25555
25555
542
80
-257
-543
-617
-584
-603
-624
-614
-600
2.21%
0.32%
-1.03%
-2.16%
-2.43%
-2.29%
-2.36%
-2.44%
-2.40%
-2.35%
Actual reception rolls for Reception from 2014/15 and projected reception rolls through to
2024/25, against PANs
Reception
Academic Year
Based on
actual NOR
Based on
projections
NOR or
Projection
PAN
Surplus
/ Deficit
%
Surplus /
Deficit
2014/15 - Jan PLASC
3386
3530
144
4.08%
2014/15 - May PLASC
3423
3530
107
3.03%
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
3400
3461
3465
3470
3467
3465
3465
3464
3466
3464
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
3585
185
124
120
115
118
120
120
121
119
121
5.16%
3.46%
3.35%
3.21%
3.29%
3.35%
3.35%
3.38%
3.32%
3.38%
Page 51 of 68
April 2016
Overall there are surplus places in reception throughout the forecasted period. As in the case of
primary overall the surplus percentage improves for 2015/16, as there are increases is reception
PANs, but then the pupil numbers increase the year after and the surplus percentage drops to the
3% level afterwards. The pressure on reception places is less partly due to current plans to
increase PANs that come into effect from reception years onwards. The lack of places in latter
years in primary suggests that the roll-through of pan increases is not quite fast enough for the
predicted level of growth throughout the school years due to new families moving into the area.
The overall small surplus of places hides some of the current pressure points within primary places
currently. The current class capacity, (as of July 2015) demonstrate an outsized lack of places
overall in Year 1 and Year 2 (with 71 children over the number of places in each year) and a deficit
of places across each planning area individually.
Current (July 2015) class capacity for Primary by Planning Area
Locality
Reception
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Total
Chadderton
East
Fails/Hollinwood
Royton/Shaw
Saddle/Lees
West
Total
10
-1
12
10
9
-4
36
-11
-20
-9
-6
-7
-18
-71
-19
-4
-15
-10
-9
-14
-71
-4
6
20
4
-6
-2
18
-8
26
-7
12
11
-14
20
0
16
5
28
17
5
71
-7
67
-5
30
30
46
161
-39
90
1
68
45
-1
164
There is currently particular pressure on places is several planning areas, particularly in Chadderton
and West Oldham which overall have too many pupils for the number of place supplied. Chadderton
has no available places across all year groups, except in reception were there is a small surplus of
10 places. Similarly in West Oldham all year groups except Year 5 and Year 6 are oversubscribed.
Failsworth and Hollinwood planning area has 1 place available on balance, with oversubscribed
places in Year 1, Year 2, Year 4 and Year 6. Although East Oldham shows the most capacity overall
because of spaces available in latter primary years; it has the largest pressure point in Year 1 with
the most oversubscribed number of places. It also has a lack of places for all early primary years:
reception, Year 1, and Year 2. These larger cohorts will transition through creating further pressure
in later year groups.
These current pressures are increased through the pupil projection model. Annex A contains tables
that demonstrate the number of classes that will be needed in each planning area and year group.
Overall provision of places will be needed in Year 2 from 2015-16 up until 2017-18. This eases
afterwards as PAN expansion in primary begin to filter through. In Year 3, Year 4, and Year 5
increases of places is needed across the forecast years partly due to PAN expansion not filtering
through to progressive years at the rate of growth; if the increased pupil numbers projected in the
model materialises, from new families moving into the area as this is anticipated to affect later year
groups sooner. The greatest pressure on class provision in primary is evident in Year 6 from 201920 onwards.
The table below illustrates where extra classes are needed to meet future projected numbers. The
potential pressure (displayed in the Appendix table in amber) where classes needed matches the
classes provided are not included in the table below. All areas need extra classes to meet the
projected numbers. Chadderton and Royton/Shaw will need 1 class more in latter primary years.
Saddleworth/Lees will require 1 more class in several year groups from Year 2 onwards.
East Oldham has the need for 1 class more in Year 2, throughout most years of the forecast. In the
model there has consistently been a drop in pupil numbers between year 2 and 3 in East Oldham.
This is a result of Glodwick Infant and Nursery School in East Oldham being a feeder school for
Alexandra Park Junior School in West Oldham, and consequently there is a large outflow of pupils
Page 52 of 68
April 2016
from East Oldham into West Oldham between years 2 and 3. Therefore the pressure on places
subsides from Year 3. Given the current lack of places in East Oldham from reception to Year 2
and the potential pressure shown in appendix A, more classes from Reception through to Year 2
would ease this pressure.
Summary Table of Pressure on Classes Needed to Meet Pupil Projections
Year of Forecast/
Provision needed
Chadderton
East
Oldham
Failsworth/
Hoilnwood
2015-16
Low Yr 5
Low Yr 2
Low Yr 2, 3, 5
and 6
2016-17
Low Yr 3 ,4,
and 6
Low Yr 2
Low Yr 3 and
Medium Yr 4,
Yr 6
Low Yr 4
Low Yr 4
2017-18
Low Yr 4, 5 and
6
Low Yr 2
Low Yr 4, Yr 6
and Medium
Yr 5
Low Yr 2, Yr 4
and Yr 5
Low Yr 4 and Yr
5
2018-19
Low Yr
5 and Medium
Yr 6
Low Yr 6
Low Yr 2
Medium Yr 5,
High Yr 6
Low Yr 2, Yr 3,
Yr 5 and Yr 6
Low Yr 5 and Yr
6
Low Yr 2
Medium Yr 6
Low Yr 2, Yr 3,
Yr 5 and Yr 6
Low Yr 5 and Yr
6
Low Yr 4, Yr 5
and Yr 6
Low Yr 3, Yr 4 ,
Yr5 and Yr 6
2019-20
2020-21
Low Yr 1
and 2



Saddleworth/
Lees
Royton/Shaw
West
Oldham
Low Yr 6
Medium
Yr 2, High
Yr 3, Yr 4,
Yr 5 and
Yr 6
Medium
Yr 2, High
Yr 3, Yr 4,
Yr 5 and
Yr 6
Low Yr 2,
High Yr 3,
Yr 4, Yr 5
and Yr 6
High Yr 3,
Yr 4, Yr 5
and Yr 6
High Yr 3,
Yr 4, Yr 5
and Yr 6
High Yr 3,
Yr 4, Yr 5
and Yr 6
Low pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 1 more class than provided
Medium pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 2 more class than provided
High pressure on extra classes - defined as needing 3 or more class than provided
An increased discrepancy between anticipated future pupil numbers and classes provided reaches
an amplified pressure point in Failsworth/Holinwood from 2018-19 in Year 5 and Year 6 where up
to two classes more may be needed.
West Oldham has the requirement for significantly more classes to meet anticipated pupil
projections from Year 2 onwards, although particularly high pressure on places is from Year 3 to
Year 6. Currently there are no places in reception to year 4, and numerous classes are above their
planned admission numbers. The new planned primary school and school expansion help to
alleviate this. However, West Oldham has seen unprecedented demand through increasing
numbers of families moving into the area. This has been reflected in the model with projected new
arrivals and the addition of pupils from new housing developments. West Oldham has the most
new developments scheduled to occur is the next 5 years, and it has received the greatest influx of
in-migration to the area. If assumption made in the model around the continuing trend of future
development and migration are correct then this area will have the most pressure on primary
school places.
Page 53 of 68
April 2016
7 To Conclude
Producing pupil number projections is not an exact science. The further into the future we try to
project, the less accurate the projections. Good practice has been incorporated into the projection
process. Assumptions have been made using the evidence and information available at the time
of making the projection, and any ‘significant’ assumptions along with reasons have been clearly
noted with the projection submission.
Essentially at its base the model assumes that past trends will continue in the future. In addition to
this we need to be mindful of the sensitivities of the model to considerable change based on the
assumptions contained within the model. A number of uplift factors have been applied to the model
to account for the recent increasing pressure on school places. New pupil arrivals from overseas,
cross boundary movement, and pupil yields from new housing developments are all included in the
pupil projections.
The new arrival data is based on evidence seen in the last two years, and the last year’s numbers
has been included in the model. We have yet to understand the effects of new arrivals longer-term
and whether the often transient population will remain in school in the Borough.
Cross boundary net imports have been included in the model at key transitional stages (reception
and Year7) since Oldham is a net importer of pupils. Again this is on the basis of the latest data
representing a future trend. This is fairly subjective going forward as it is hard to predict the impact
of changes in school performance and internal management in the surrounding Local Authorities,
and what impact that has on demand for places within the Oldham local authority boundary.
Pupil yields from new housing developments generate an increased number of pupils within the
model. Although great care has been taken to identify the likelihood and timing of sites coming
forward it is subject to several factors, with regard to the current economic scenario and the
buoyancy of the housing market. If sales on sites are slow then house building will not occur at the
assumed rates and potential pupils from those sites will not be generated. Additionally it is difficult
to evaluate how much new house building generates existing movement within the borough or inmigration into the borough from elsewhere.
These forecasts should be used as a guide to possible future numbers based on what we know
about birth rates, historic pupil data and possible future PAN changes. These forecasts do not take
into account any unknown change in legislation or policy that might affect school admission
arrangements for future years, nor do they make any attempt to estimate any change in demand
based on parental preference, school performance, internal management improvements, or
curriculum changes.
Sensitivity to change in the model is likely and on-going monitoring of the models inputs will help
the model reflect changes and maintain a level of accuracy.
Page 54 of 68
April 2016
Model Assumption RAG Ratings
Assumptions
Issues to Note
Future Birth Rate
*Estmating current birth rate based on the
average last 4 years
Cross Boundary Movement
*Cross boundary movement may already be
captured in the cohort survival
*Increasing Pupil numbers to Recption and
Year 7 - may distort these cohorts
*At what scale will this continue
*No control over what neighbouring LAs do , i.e. Based on some analysis, and
building new school, school improvement etc. stakeholder input indicates
*Based on data from one year
this is a justified inclusion
*Will current numbers continue?
*Based on two years worth of data evidence
*Potentially transient population - will current
In the short-term new arrivals
'overseas' pupils stay in Oldham Schools
are having an impact on the
throughout their school career?
demand for school places
Based on sites from the
*Will anticipated housing growth be
housing land supply and other
deliverable due to: the economic conditions
which prevail, the housing market, developers council sites considered to
meet 'the principles of
appetite and wider legislation and policy
development' or that can be
justified that the development
will proceed.
In line with GM housing
growth ambitions
New Arrivals
Housing Development - Pupil
Yield
Page 55 of 68
Mitigating Factors
RAG
Based on analysis of birth
rates
April 2016
APPENDIX D: DECISION SUPPORT MATRIX
CODE
CRITERIA
WEIGHTING
SCORE
0
Column1
1
Column2
2
Column3
3
MAX
SCORE
SCHOOLS ACCESS AND STANDARDS RATINGS
A
SURPLUS PLACES
Source - Most recent annual
SCAP return to DfE (note 1)
5
> 25%
16% - 24%
8% - 15%
0% - 7%
15
B
PREDICTED SURPLUS
PLACES
IN 4 YEARS TIME IN
RELEVANT PLANNING AREA
3
> 25%
16% - 24%
8% - 15%
0% - 7%
9
1
< 50%
50% - 74%
75% - 94%
95% +
3
3
105 or less
106-157
158-209
210 +
9
Source - Primary Place
Projections based on January
school census data (Note 2)
C
PARENTAL PREFERENCES
(see note 3)
Source - Total "on time" first
preferences received for school
as % of PAN from most recent
allocation
D
NUMBER ON ROLL (exc
Nursery)
Page 56 of 68
(See note 4)
Source - January school census
data
E
CURRENT EDUCATIONAL
STANDARDS
Source – National Progress Data
2
Progress ranking
d) OFSTED "overall
effectiveness"
F
DISTANCE TO ALTERNATIVE
PROVISION
2
100-75
0
74-50
1
49-25
2
24-0
3
6
1
Inadequate
Requires
improvement
Good
Outstanding
3
1
0
1
2
3
3
2
<0.5m
0.5 - 1m
1 - 2m
> 2.0 m
6
(See note 3)
Source - Straight line measure
using GIS
G
BALANCE OF PROVISION (See
note 3)
Source - if school closed, is there
sufficient
Page 57 of 68
April 2016
number of available school
places of same
category (Community, CE or RC)
within:
2
<0.5m
0.5 - 1m
1 - 2m
> 2.0 m
6
1
> 50%
25% - 49%
10% - 24%
< 10%
3
Unaffected
(or not
applicable)
Alternative
provision
Alternative
provision
available
No alternative
provision
available
available in
area
in neighbouring
in review area
or
neighbouring
areas
Straight line measure using GIS
H
COMMUNITY COHESION
% OF FREE SCHOOL MEALS
ELIGIBILITY
(See note 9)
I
EFFECT OF PROPOSALS ON
OUT OF
SCHOOL PROVISION: (See
note 8)
areas
a) EARLY YEARS
Only if used for 50% or more or
school week
1
3
b) WRAP AROUND CARE
1
3
Page 58 of 68
April 2016
J
RUNNING COSTS: Cost per
pupil, percentile rank
100-76
75-51
50-26
25-Jan
Source: CFR Headings E12-18Premises Related.
TOTAL PER PUPIL COSTS
(See note 9)
3
9
PROPERTY AND BUILDING RELATED RATINGS - CORPORATE LANDLORD
TEAM
K
DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL
a) ESTIMATED COST OF
DEVELOPMENT
5
>£2.5m / 1FE
£1.75m - £2.5m
/ FE
Source - Costs as estimated by
Unity compared to notional cost
of increase of PAN - takes
account of backlog maintenance
issues, complexity of project and
temporary works
Page 59 of 68
April 2016
£1.25 - £1.75m
/ FE
< £1.25m /
1FE
15
b) LIKELIHOOD OF PLANNING
STATUTORY PERMISSIONSincluding external spaces,
playing fields and traffic
2
Not feasible
Unlikely
Degree of
challenge
Deemed
probable
School Score
Max score
6
Source - planning opinion from
Unity
TOTALS (See note 10)
ACTION
Page 60 of 68
39
46 or less
47 to 61
62 and over
Urgent review
of provision
required
Investigation
into viability
Take no action
April 2016
111
APPENDIX E: DRAFT ACADEMY CONVERSION POLICY (Final due July 2016)
LA Policy on
Academy Conversion Final Draft Version 962016.docx
Page 61 of 68
April 2016
APPENDIX F: EDUCATION PROVISION GROUP TERMS OF REFERENCE
Education Provision
Group (EPG)
Terms of Reference
April 2016
Purpose:
Page 62 of 68
A consultative group that will collectively act as decision maker to ensure
Oldham LA meets its statutory duties around the planning of schools and
settings places and to inform the need to undertake capital works to expand
existing or build new schools.
Context and LA Duties
1.1
Oldham Council has a democratic mandate to secure good educational
outcomes for all its children and young people in state funded education,
regardless of the status of the provider institutions.
1.2
The Council has a statutory duty to ensure that sufficient school places are
available within its area for every child of school age whose parents wish
them to have one; to promote diversity, parental choice and high educational
standards; to ensure fair access to educational opportunity and to protect the
interests of the most vulnerable.
1.3
The Council also has a duty to respond to any representations from parents
and carers who are not satisfied with the provision of schools in the local
area. This could be regarding size, type, location or quality of school
provision.
1.4
Early Years statutory duties include; ensuring secure sufficient childcare is
available for working parents and to:





monitor and manage the childcare market;
undertake a Childcare Sufficiency Assessment review (CSA)
and respond to changes in the childcare market;
Ensure there are sufficient places available to meet a legal
entitlement for eligible 2, 3 and 4 year olds to access fifteen
hours per week free early education across childcare providers;
Ensure provision is in place to provide information, advice and
assistance to parents and prospective parents for children 025; and to
Ensure provision is in place to provide information, advice and
training to childcare providers.
1.8
Changes in the provision of maintained school places mean that new
providers are able to establish state-funded Free Schools. There are also a
growing number of academies, which are independent of Local Authority (LA)
control. School places are no longer therefore solely provided by Oldham
Council; the Council must work with other providers to ensure that the
demand for high quality school places is met.
1.9
There has been no statutory requirement to publish a School Organisation
Plan since 2004. However, it is considered good practice to produce a plan
related to school place planning to clearly set out the framework for, and
approach towards, the strategic provision of high quality places.
1.10
This strategic approach shows local communities, and those interested in
their development, how we expect school provision to change over the next
few years. It brings together information from a range of sources and sets out
the issues the Council will face in meeting its statutory duties for providing
school places up to 2020/2021 and beyond.
1.11
The information from which our plan will be developed includes present and
predicted future pupil numbers, together with information about birth rates,
Page 63 of 68
school capacity and new housing. The plan will set out proposed changes in
the number of school places available over the next year and it suggests
where other changes may be necessary in the future. The plan will also set
out our policies on school organisation and the statutory framework for
making changes such as opening, closing, amalgamating or expanding
schools.
School Organisation Context
2.1
In April 2016, education provision in Oldham is as set out in Table 1 below;
TABLE 1
2.2
Type of school
Primary
Secondary
Cross phase
Community
Foundation Trust
Voluntary Controlled
Voluntary Aided
Academy
Special
Special Academy
Pupil Referral Unit
Free School
UTC
Independent
Independent Special
35
1
6
31
12
1
0
0
0
0
2
0
1
3
0
1
7
0
1
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
1
The LA has recently expanded six existing primary schools including;
Bare Trees C P & Yew Tree C P - September 2013
St Hilda’s C E, Mills Hill C P, Watersheddings CP and Propps Hall September 2014
Oasis Limeside – September 2015
The LA has acted jointly with Bluecoat School to expand the number of
secondary places on offer -September 2014.
The LA has also constructed a new school for children on the autistic
continuum at Hollinwood Academy – September 2015
2.3
During 2016 a new 3 form entry primary school will be constructed in the town
centre and in 2017 a school expansion project is planned for Saddleworth &
Lees.
School organisation demands
3.1
The number of in year school transfers has increased year on year since
2010/2011. This is largely due to the number of children and young people
moving in to the borough from abroad. In the main the above families are
Page 64 of 68
moving in to council owned housing in two of the six districts; Chadderton and
Oldham.
3.2
The number of families moving in to the Oldham area and requiring places in
KS1 (Reception, Year 1 and Year 2) has increased. There is now pressure on
places in the borough throughout Key Stage 1.
3.3
Borough wide pupil projections show a continual increase in primary pupil
numbers up to 2018/19 and secondary pupil numbers up to 2023/2024.
3.4
A high percentage of KS1 classes are over their planned admission number
(pupils being taught in a class of more than 30) and this is impacting on infant
class size legislation. Year groups 1, 2, 3 and 4 are the most significant in
terms of place pressure;
3.5
The DFE estimates that approximately 400,000 – 500,000 additional pupil
places will be required in both the primary and secondary sectors nationally
between 2015 and 2024.
(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/478185/SFR24_2015_Proje
ctions_Text.pdf)
Early Years Settings
4.1
Childcare providers are privately run childcare businesses that operate under
a small business model. The market can be unpredictable and subject to
change at any time. Oldham Council has to manage and monitor the
childcare market to ensure that there is sufficient childcare for working
parents.
4.2
The childcare market is fluid and the number of settings can change
throughout the year. Parents have a choice where they take up childcare and
many of the providers are private childcare businesses. The current childcare
provision in Oldham includes;
9 breakfast clubs
166 childminders
46 day nurseries
28 extended day play groups
41 holiday schemes
54 maintained nursery classes
9 academy nursery
4 nursery units independent schools
67 out of school care
12 pre-school playgroups
4.3
The government policy from September 2014 has been to expand two year
old places and a capital programme has been put in place.
Page 65 of 68
Policies and Legislation
5.1
All decisions and arrangements will be made using the following legislation
and policies;







School Admissions Code - February 2012
The academy/free school presumption departmental advice - February 2014
Establishing new maintained schools departmental advice - June 2013
School Organisation Guidance - January 2014
Early Education and Childcare – September 2014
Children and Families Act – September 2014
Educational Excellence Everywhere – White Paper March 2016
Management arrangements and decision
making
6.1
To inform its duties as decision maker for school organisation issues Oldham
Council has Education provision Group comprising Officers from Education
and Early years, Regeneration, Schools, Business Intelligence, Corporate
Assets, Finance, Preventative Services and Housing Strategy.
6.2
The key activities of the group are to:








6.3
Discuss and inform the overall strategy for school and early years
organisation in order to meet LA statutory duties
Discuss developing options in relation to school and childcare expansions
and new builds
Endorse recommendations to the cabinet member for education and skills,
the capital Investment programme board, Director of Children’s Services and
the Early Years & Childcare Board.
Comment on statutory information and any written comments and objections
as part of the statutory process
Discuss and consider proposals for Free Schools, University Technology
Colleges and other academies
Review the effectiveness of existing and proposed admissions arrangements
in serving the interests of children and parents within the area of the LA
Monitor demand for and access to places and admission patterns
Monitor ongoing programmes of capital works to ensure projects are
completed and deliver benefits required
Recommendations made by the EPG will be reported, when relevant, initially
to the Economy, Skills and Neighbourhoods EMT and Early Years &
Childcare Board prior to presentation to the Capital Investment Programme
Board.
Page 66 of 68
School and Early Years forecast methodology
7.1
7.2
7.3
October Census data will be circulated and discussed at the December EPG
meeting.
January Census data will be circulated and discussed at the March EPG
Meeting.
There will be an annual refresh of projection work and forecasts.
School and Early Years place planning data
8.1
8.2
8.3
School Organisation spreadsheet will be brought to December EPG meeting.
School Organisation spreadsheet will be brought to March EPG meeting.
DFE return SCAP – draft commentary on school capacity and methodology
will be discussed at May PSSPG meeting.
Review arrangements
9.1
9.2
The Group to participate in consultations and take feedback to and from the
sector they represent.
The Group will review the terms of reference annually.
Aligned arrangements
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
Service level agreement with Local Authority
Partnership with all Schools, Academies, Free Schools and Early Years
Settings
Directorate and corporate objectives
Cooperative agenda
Other arrangements as agreed by the EPG
Page 67 of 68
APPENDIX G: SCHEMES CONSIDERED AS PRIOIRTY – JANUARY 2016
Primary :

Addressing condition issues across an aging estate (some very serious)
Academy conversion of Lyndhurst including separation of Springbrook Lower
Secondary :
Working with the EFA to procure a full rebuild for Royton & Crompton via PSBP2 grant
process (also including the potential to expand from 9 form entry to 12 form entry)

Expanding Crompton House to a 12 form entry school

Creating at least one additional secondary school by 2021 and possibly one more by 2024
(potential sites include Bloom Street, Southlink, Old Town Centre Leisure site)
Special schools:

New free school application for additional school as part of Kingfisher MAT
Resolving issues around Springbrook:Lower School to be separated from Lyndhurst
Upper School to be co-located / reorganised with lower school
Alternative Provision:

New / Relocated / Expanded Pupil Referral Unit
New in borough residential provision for those pupils in out of borough residential placements
Page 68 of 68